December 23, 2006

HousingPanic Stupid Question of the Day


Get out the crystal ball - what are you best 2007 predictions?

Housing
Wars
US Dollar
Economy
Stocks, Bonds, Gold
US Presidential Election
Britney Spears



50 comments:

Tony1790 said...

Housing - continues crash
Economy - slides into recession
War - Iraq festers, Iran is bombed, war with xxxx next?
Civil rights are curtailed further as a "surprise" terrorist attack happens on US soil again.
Gold - goes down to $450 or up to $850? Who knows, I don't.

GrandInquisitor said...

Housing The spring bounce fails to materialize. Denial is no longer an option.

Wars More of the same. The public support for Iraq continues to wane.

US Dollar Weakens further against the majors

Economy 2007 will be the year the impossible comes true; consumer spending slows.

Stocks, Bonds, Gold Down, Down, Down (consumer stops spending and we get rising unemployment and deflation...the perfect storm)

US Presidential Election If the Dems can't find someone to beat the Republicans this year it might be time to pack in it.

Britney Spears Britney embarks on a PR campaign to clean her image up.

Mendoman said...

Some area get hammered by housing declines, most will be ok.
Economy slows down with inflation.
Bush will keep on with unwinable war in middle east, costs skyrocket.
Some Dem, not sure too early to tell, but not Hillary or Obama.
Overall its a small mess, but I'm trying to look at the glass half full. Have a great holidys

Richard said...

Just for the record - gas at the pump will hit $8.00 by June...Dow 50% drop and martial law enacted.

US/Israel attack on Iran after a false flag - April

Gold hits 1850 by September.

Bubble Shmubble said...

My predictions:

All you paranoid HPers will be proven wrong again. Do you all still have your stockpiles from Y2K?

Housing: Renters will continue renting. Owners will continue owning. Renters will get more and more pissed off at the likes of Keith as the 40% crash fails to materialize. Keith's answer: don't blame me, it's all Bernake's fault and what the fuck were you thinking listening to me anyway, I live in Londonistan for Christ's sake, what the hell do I know about the Florida condo market?

Wars: Another year another bunch of wars in the world. Sand niggers will be fighting non-sand niggers in a variety of locales. Just like in '06, '05, '04, '03, '02.....

Economy: Instead of overspending on 60" plasmas, we will all over overspending on 70" plasmas, but we will all still be overspending...except of course for the HP crowd that drives '93 Camrys (paid off of course) and proudly watches a 33" TV bought in 1999 (also paid off of course).

Gold $600 - $700.

Presidential elections: Last I checked this is a non-election year. But hey in HP, where China dumps trillions of dollars and the real deficit is $4.6 trillion, maybe there is an election next year after all. Is so, I predict a very rich white will defeat another very rich white man.

Britney: I forsee a "One Night in Paris Pt. 2" video surfacing.

The Jews: According to HP will still control everything.

Illegals: According to HP will still be responsible for every ill in society.

Veronica Lodge said...

Get out the crystal ball - what are your best 2007 predictions?

In 2007, we will enter the final phase of existence where world conditions never improve. All of the world's problems will simultaneously collide, with devastating results. Eternal war will replace any semblance of peace we once enjoyed.

The fabric of civilization as we know it will unravel. Vastly increasing populations will strain the earth's ability to support them. Migrating masses will further challenge the uneven distribution of the earth's wealth. Skirmishes over oil, land and water resources will escalate into larger and more destructive wars. The elite classes will be forced to make hard decisions as to who will be allowed to survive on our dying planet.

That's all for now, the crystal has gone dark.

Bubble Shmubble said...

MAY I AX A QUESTION TO THE HPERS?

If I see any market with a 20% decrease in prices from the 2005 peak, I'll admit I was wrong and there is indeed a crash.

So my question is in reverse to Keith and Co. In 2007 what will it take you to say you were wrong and there is no crash occuring?

If let's say May '07 median price is higher than May '06, will that mean anything? Or will you dismiss it as a 1 month anomaly. Will it have to be 2 months in a row? 3? 6? 12?

sk said...

The residential real estate affordability index will improve ( in 12 month moving average terms).

Whadyya mean there is no such thing ? :-) I'll have to develop one then.

-K

sk said...

1. The residential affordability index will improve.

2. I will develop a real estate affordability index so that the impacts of region, wage and price inflation, demographic flows, employment sector changes, generational money transfers, age group cohort transfers from appreciation to income are completely and fully reflected and a single objective standard to settle the question - "there is a real estate bust /correction / slowdown / bottomed / just began / temporaty hiatus " and this standard is agreed to by all parties. Yeah, right..

-K

toomuchtimeonmyhands said...

Congress will tax the China made imports at 27% and then Chian will sell US dollars as punishment.

While America sleeps, China can be expected to consolidate her increasingly powerful position as America’s next major strategic challenger.

It was long ago that Sun Tzu wrote, “The greatest skill in war is to defeat one’s enemy without firing a shot.” We believe these words of wisdom are not lost on his Chinese descendents.

The Art of War

stuckinthecity said...

Many BIG projects in Chicago are under way. I've spoke to many of them and they have told me that they want be done by Spring 07. Most are unlikely.

By Winter 07 Fed will have to start raising rates to float the dollar. But since B.B. is a Repuglican, they will try to hold off til Jan 09 to stick it to Hillary or Obama....

Smart Dems will run, not walk away from the White House. 2009-2012 will be BAD years. No point in being on the Hot seat!

Anon 1000 said...

you've spoke to projects, eh

not only are you illiterate you can communicate with projects too.

PaulRevere said...

I think Jim Sinclair will be proven correct again…

1.Gold shares will return to their traditional asset based valuation. Prices will be made by what you have under your feet, where you are and how advanced you are. In general they will be multiples of what they are presently, some ten fold.
2.China will stand up to the US in economic and political matters.
3.The US Treasury International Capital report will go below the zero line.
4.The cost of the Iraq/Afghanistan conflicts will skyrocket both in $$$ and lives.
5.The NATO Coalition in Afghanistan will in practical terms break down.
6.The Federal Budget Deficit will sky rocket.
7.The US dollar will trade down to .7200
8.Consideration of a North American currency, a natural outgrowth of NAFTA type arrangements, akin to the Euro will be discussed, but will not happen.
9.The USA will go from black ops to full engagement in certain South American countries. The build up has already started.

Merry Christmas!

Mort said...

What I think should happen will be exactly the opposite of what will happen. Using this logic we will see more wars, more spending, more stupidity, and more lies.

CaptHek said...

Get out the crystal ball - what are you best 2007 predictions?

Housing:
This will continue to decline, with subprime/predatory loans reaching even higher levels of foreclosure, and newly elected Dems finally suggest some new laws to protect homeowners (and probably banks).

Wars:
I think we will continue to keep troops in Iraq through 2007.

US Dollar:
I have been talking about the possibilities of stagflation for quite some time, and I think we are seeing stronger evidence now than ever. I have more on this on my other blog:
http://community.livejournal.com/recession2007/

Economy:
I believe in may who suggest recession may already be present. Those who say that the worst is over and that there is a new model of recession prediction are deluded.

Stocks, Bonds, Gold
Stocks will dive, bonds are a mixed bag, gold will rise as it tends to when inflation is present.

US Presidential Election:
It's a bit early, but I think John Edwards will win, possibly an Edwards/Biden ticket.

Britney Spears:
She will try to straighten out a bit, but she seems to have the ability to sell records somehow.

OwenF said...

Nickel will double to $30/lb by mid summer on continued supply defecit, then fall back to about $20/lb by next christmas

joey said...

Let me get a piece of this prediction action.
-Oil will reemerge as a major issue. We've been a bit lucky on this one lately. Oil will go back up and inflation will pop back in the news.
-the squeezing of everybody non-rich will gain more traction news-wise. Its so *&$cking absurd to tell people infaltion is at 2.5 percent.
-consumers will slow but not stop. Buying is a drug, it hast be removed harshly. Most people won't stop spending just to save more. We need the offical recession to really scare folks.
-China won't dump a damn thing. Remember that Iran-Euro bourse? same idea. It's not gonna happen. Dems won't tarrif either. It's alose-lose situation for both countries.
-Housing will slow more but I just don't see that crash unless there is some unimginable event that shoots up rates. Still it will hurt 2007 alot.
-The market is going corect very soon. It's tired and xmas sales will suprise on the downside. If it corrects very sharply then all bets are off.
-Gold will go up a notch but won't go nuts. The most important number in our economy is 80. A dollar value under that on the index will really start to spook foreigners. If that happens all bets are off.
-Deflation? No way with all that credit and debt out there. USA has to pay back debts with reduced dollars.

GK said...

Theory: Massive expansion of war spending will provide the replacement spending for collapsing credit bubble economy.

Housing: Middle class war industry worker will start buying again in $250K range. Upper middle class investors in war industry will start buying second homes for $650K again. Upper class executives at war industries will buy private jets and second, third and four homes at $2.5M plus.

Wars: Massive increase in spending to stimulate economy (see WWII)

US Dollar: It will be kept high by military might. (Buy $USD or Die)

Economy: Growth driven by massive Military Industrial complex growth.

Stocks, Bonds, Gold: Stocks up due to asset inflation, Bond up due to war bond patriotism, Gold flat due to world fed reserve sales of paper gold certificates.

US Presidential Election: Another war president to handle WWIII in Middle east. Hand selected by Bush I. Candidate with have CFR and CIA history.

Britney Spears: "I believe in buying WWIII War Bonds to support our troops!"

HBB said...

"If I see any market with a 20% decrease in prices from the 2005 peak, I'll admit I was wrong and there is indeed a crash."

Check this one out.

Sarasota is down 76K (21%), to 277K in Oct from a Jan 06 peak of 353K.

Naples is down 91K (18%) , to 420K in Oct from Jan 06 peak of 511K.

Fort Myers is down 73K (22%), to 249K from Dec 05 peak of 322K.

BubbleShanker said...

bubble smubble

When bs realtor fees are factored in, several markets have already sunk 20% or more. Housing is garbage as are realtors, this downward cycle has a minimum of 5 more years based on history, not some stupid opinion from a RE retard.

Richard said...

One giant leap closer to $8.00 gas.

Security Council approves Iran sanctions 19 minutes ago

http://news. yahoo.com/ s/ap/20061223/ ap_on_re_ mi_ea/un_ iran_nuclear

The U.N. Security Council unanimously approved a resolution Saturday
imposing sanctions against Iran for refusing to suspend uranium
enrichment, culminating two months of negotiations aimed at
pressuring Tehran to clarify its nuclear ambitions.

The resolution orders all countries to ban the supply of specified
materials and technology that could contribute to Iran's nuclear and
missile programs. It also imposes an asset freeze on key companies
and people in the country's nuclear and missile programs named on a
U.N. list.

If Iran refuses to comply, the resolution warns Iran that the council
will adopt further nonmilitary sanctions.

Bubble Shmubble said...

Care to provide any data?

I didn't realize the new metric to prove a crash is now "factoring in bs realtor fees", but if you insist, please provide data showing a 20% drop for these "several markets".


"When bs realtor fees are factored in, several markets have already sunk 20% or more. Housing is garbage as are realtors, this downward cycle has a minimum of 5 more years based on history, not some stupid opinion from a RE retard."

Bubble Shmubble said...

Data from realtors is meaningless to me. If there is one thing I have learnd on HP is that anything the NAR or a realtor says is a lie.

Bubble Shmubble said...

"Sarasota is down 76K (21%), to 277K in Oct from a Jan 06 peak of 353K.
Naples is down 91K (18%) , to 420K in Oct from Jan 06 peak of 511K.
Fort Myers is down 73K (22%), to 249K from Dec 05 peak of 322K."

VS

"Three Florida metro areas were hit hard by price drops. In Sarasota, the median home now sells for $320,700, off a whopping 9.4 percent from last year; Palm Bay/Melbourne/Titusville prices sank 9 percent to $193,600; and Cape Coral prices plunged 8 percent to $255,400."


some blog with no sources

VS

CNN.COM


Yeah I know the blog without sources is to be believed

Bubble Shmubble said...

see you in the new year paranoid boys and girls...I'm off to Mexico for the holidays

better go buy some more gold, you never know China might dump another gajillion next week, I heard that rumor on Rense's show

Adios!!

HBB said...

"Yeah I know the blog without sources is to be believed"

That data comes from none other but Florida Association of Realtors.

http://media.living.net/statistics/statisticsfull.htm

You prefer manufacturing your own numbers.

HBB said...

"Three Florida metro areas were hit hard by price drops. In Sarasota, the median home now sells for $320,700, off a whopping 9.4 percent from last year; Palm Bay/Melbourne/Titusville prices sank 9 percent to $193,600; and Cape Coral prices plunged 8 percent to $255,400."

Looks like you quoted from here

http://money.cnn.com/2006/11/20/real_estate/summer_house_prices_cool/index.htm

Which is nothing but NAR's Q3 Report.

Jul-Sep data is old news now.

Even the Oct data will be out dated with November numbers coming out next week.

A few more markets could join the 20% drop, while you are vacationing in Mexico.

Happy Holidays!!

GrandInquisitor said...

So my question is in reverse to Keith and Co. In 2007 what will it take you to say you were wrong and there is no crash occuring?

If let's say May '07 median price is higher than May '06, will that mean anything? Or will you dismiss it as a 1 month anomaly. Will it have to be 2 months in a row? 3? 6? 12?


Bubble, If that occurs I'll say you were right. I will stop renting and buy a home.

Nostradamus said...

Quatrain 2007: The great housing of the West and North East will go South with the houses of the South.

Nostradamus said...

Quatrain 2007: The great housing of the West and North East will go South with the houses of the South.

Shakster said...

to bubble schmubble-OK I'll take you up on that.If housing prices are 20% higher 07 over 06 with a dollar devaluation to 82 and no lower.

Frocco said...

The Fed will continue flooding the economy with easy money, gold will go up, the dollar will loose more value, housing will continue to tank, unemployment will rise, consumer spending will decrease, we will have a long period of stagflation!!

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

The Fed will continue flooding the economy with easy money, gold will go up, the dollar will loose more value, housing will continue to tank, unemployment will rise, consumer spending will decrease, we will have a long period of stagflation!!
==============
That is what I am talkin about.

Oh and interest rates; hold or down middle of 07, imo.

dan said...

BushCo swinging at the end of a rope.

Anonymous said...

Rather than a chemical or biological weapon killing off all the people yet leaving everything else intact, a financial wmd in the form of a derivative market blowup will take down US banks and inflate the dollar to oblivion. Not only will the financial wmd leave everything else intact, people will still be alive, leaving them to survive in a culture of mass chaos.

Anonymous said...

"Britney Spears Britney embarks on a PR campaign to clean her image up."

Who?

War with terror spreads to Africa and South America. Mexican border becomes a bigger problem. Dollar continues down as oil producing nations switch into Euro trading. Legislation for military draft and compulsory service begun. Pro sport TV revenue drops as public gets sick of watching pampered jerks who make a 1000 lifetimes salary for playing kiddie games.
Church attendance increases.

Anonymous said...

"Britney Spears Britney embarks on a PR campaign to clean her image up."

Who?

War with terror spreads to Africa and South America. Mexican border becomes a bigger problem. Dollar continues down as oil producing nations switch into Euro trading. Legislation for military draft and compulsory service begun. Pro sport TV revenue drops as public gets sick of watching pampered jerks who make a 1000 lifetimes salary for playing kiddie games.
Church attendance increases.

Casual Observer said...

Housing: Down 10%+ nationwide

Wars: Middle East escalates

Greenback: Lower

Economy: Middle class on a path to extinction

Stocks: Lower due to slowing economy/earnings

Bonds: Depends on buying from China

Gold: Money changers can only hold it down for so long

US Election: It's not until '08

Britney: Oops she did it a again

Anonymous said...

2007 will be an incredibly optimisitc year.

The true start of a great new century.

The evil nationalist nazi's of the Bush adminstration trying to stop the rise of the 3rd world countries is being squashed by the songs of freedom and a great new century will begin.

The world will be closer together then ever before. People in places such as the USA and Britian may find it a little tougher to make the BMW payments, but that is about it.

sk said...

Prediction:

FINANCIAL SCANDAL - ( "People love it. Its like the smell of your own sh&t" quote from - "Accidental Death of An Anarchist" - by Dario Fo - c198x)

A Private Equity Deal will not complete. Some months later, the PE firm will collapse. As rats leave the sinking ship we'll find out:
1. The rapid deal after deal style of the PE was really a Ponzi scheme - paying off debt of earlier deals with the capital raised for the new deals. When that final deal fails, one of their owned companies defaults on a debt payment.. The rest unravels.
2. Brokers will be found to be placing PE debt in mutual funds and pension funds of municipalities, teachers etc via corrupt means - bungs will have be passed out.

On the totally wild side:
1. The Cramer show - Someone will be found to be stepping ahead of his TV show predictions. A market turn will be the trigger for this all to come out. I really hope I'm wrong on this - I like the guy - BUT.... odds are: scallywags like him never really reform. The show comes off the air - Coming off the air because of a ratings loss simply because of a market crash doesn't count.

-K

Anonymous said...

A year that along with all the stuff mention above, will help us ask ourselves -the ultimate question.


Are we an Empire or a Democratic Republic?. If we are an Empire, do we acknowledge that we are no longer a Democratic Republic? & we have transitioned (pick your moment) with a Lex Garbinia like event to an Empire -just like the Roman Republic became the Roman Empire.
Are we willing to let go of the Empire driven by military Keynesianism best described & foreshadow by Dwight Eisenhower in his last presidential speech with reference to the Military Industrial Complex, just like England did thru the 50's.? Understanding that at least 50% of Englands willingess to let go of its colonies was based on financial bankruptcy, and the other 50% the real understanding that they would have to lose their democracy, andbecome totalitarians to hold on to their empire.

Tick tock, tick tock -the clock is ticking away- Choose your pill Empire or Democratic Republic.

vegas crash watcher said...

I'll sooner or later sell 1 round of ammo for 1 oz. silver, or 10 rounds for 1 oz. gold. Gold is in a bubble right now.

Anonymous said...

Maybe we can get back to the harmoniuous days of early 2001 before the nazi Bush gave the order for 9/11. You know back to when - as John Kerry said - terrorism was merely a nuisance.

Boy oh boy, I can'twait for the good times to return.

"The world will be closer together then ever before. "

Anonymous said...

nah let's go back to 1993 when the 1st WTC attack occured. Or maybe 1983 when 250+ Marines were killed on Beirut. No? How about 2000 when 17 Navy men/women were killed on the USS Cole or 1998 when Khobar towers were blown up.

No wait I forgto all members of the peaceful religion loved us up until Bush took office. Never mind.

Professor said...

No "reported" recession in '07, although recessionary conditions will emerge and persist.

Housing bust continues with foreclosures, vacant listings, and bank loan charge-offs soaring.

15-20% decline for the S&P 500 (-25% max.).

20-30% correction for the NASDAQ (-40% max.).

Mfg. and non-mfg. PMI data below 50 throughout the year.

Industrial production contracts yoy.

U rate at 5-6%.

The 10-year Treasury yield dips below 4% to perhaps as low as 3.25-3.5%.

30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate dips to the low 5% range.

Gold falls to near or below $500.

The US$ Index surprises to the upside, perhaps to as high as 90-95.

China and Japan experiences bear markets, and China experiences the first phase of a hard landing and bank failures. Asian Crisis II occurs with hot money outflows from Asia.

Joey said...

Housing = Decline Accelerates.
Wars = Horn of Africa major hotspot. Sudan, Saudi Arabia, USA, Israel get involved covertly. US Troops go in 2008.
US Dollar = Gets stronger, then currency crises
Economy = Slowly weakens
Stocks, Bonds, Gold = Dunno
US Presidential Election = Obama gets hype, then backs out. Midwest farmer takes populist position railing against bankers & moneylenders. Becomes front runner.
Britney Spears = Marries a black man :-)

Anonymous said...

RETARDS:

THERE IS NO ELECTION IN 2007

I REPEAT

THERE IS NO ELECTION IN 2007

Tabitha said...

Housing: Foreclosure rates, unsold inventory, and time on the market for resellers will continue to remain high, in some areas much worse than others.

Iraq: Politicians will continue to muck around in the quagmire. Public discussions of a return of the draft will increase.

Gas Prices: No one has been paying much attention to diesel fuel prices, but that will change rapidly as soon as everyone sees the price of everything that has to ride in a truck increase dramatically. Bricks, lumber, and sheetrock ride in a truck. What effect do you think this fact will have on building costs once the inflated inventory of unsold homes has been deflated?

Wall Street: A lot of those bulls are going to get tripped up in their rally run.

Election '08: Obama Pajamas will continue to gain fame, but not all of it will be good. Voters will increasingly wise up to the experience of Gore and Edwards, as well as to Hillary's baggage, as 2007 progresses. McCain and Giuliani will hope this is not true. (See link below.)

Britney will find her panties before too many parents of teenage girls begin using her CD's as Frisbees.

http://SuckTheBoob.blogspot.com

Suck The Boob

Anonymous said...

I predict that a man will land on Uranus in 2007!

I don't know if he will penetrate the "bumvent horizon" though.

Anonymous said...

I predict nuclear 9/11.