HousingPanic Stupid Question of the Day

December 31, 2006

HousingPanic Stupid Question of the Day

Anyone know any struggling ramen-eating real estate clerks or REIC who could use a helping hand this holiday season?

100 comments:

David in JAX said...: I don't know any real estate clerks, but I do know several people who own small residential construction subcontracting businesses. All of them are saying business has dropped to about 1/4 of what it was a year ago and are laying off employees. None of them are ready to completely shut down, but they are all trying to diversify. The diversifications aren't working will because all of their competitors are trying to diversify into the same businesses.; December 31, 2006 1:24 PM
Anonymous said...: One local real estate professional is doing very well....as a cocktail waitress.; December 31, 2006 1:36 PM
David in JAX said...: This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.; December 31, 2006 1:41 PM
David in JAX said...: david in jax said...
aren't working will

Aren't working well. Excuse me.; December 31, 2006 1:42 PM
Anonymous said...: I'm surprised that the real estate market here is still humming. Commercial real estate is crazy busy.; December 31, 2006 2:02 PM
Anonymous said...: The funny part of all of this is you debtors that think you'll make it. If the real estate economy slows you'll all be in trouble, house or no house.

The economy's recent growth has been on the back of the REIC. No growth equals layoffs in your biz too.; December 31, 2006 2:13 PM
Anonymous said...: Let them eat cake!; December 31, 2006 2:22 PM
Chris said...: I have been looking around DC for an investment property, obviously hoping for a great deal (which usually means highly motivated people are involved).

Every time I have contacted a realtor by voicemail or e-mail, they have not responded to my calls or messages. So I'm thinking that they are not starving yet, at least the ones that are well established.

By contrast, I contacted a realtor in Wisconsin about some land that is available near where my parents live. I got a call the next day, as I had expected.; December 31, 2006 2:46 PM
Anonymous said...: Isn't it true that all the unemployed realtors will not show up in the government stats?

They will need to make a whole new unemployment category to account for realtors and illegal mexicans.; December 31, 2006 4:29 PM
Anonymous said...: I have a neighbor who is a commerical real estate developer. I don't talk shop him but I do assume he must be doing very well these days.

This spring they put a pool in the backyard which was $35-40K easy. There is a new Escalade and a new FX45 in the garage too. His wife is an elementary school teacher so she's no the one buying all that.

Knowing this guy, I would be shocked if he bought all that on a neagtive option arm refi. He's probably paying cash for all of it.; December 31, 2006 4:29 PM
Anonymous said...: REIC ( real estate Industrial Complex ) is an excellent way of putting it. I thought REIC was overstating the case at first - no more.

As the subprime business rachets down a few notches - all those in that money transmission chain need sustenance anew. Add Mortgage brokers, Loan Officers, Loan Originators ( is that different ), AEs (Account Executives?) to the Ramen Noodles mix.

I've been mugging up on how this mechanism works, who the players are (so that I can predict when a cross-default in the lenders arena is going to occur). SCUMMY is the word for it.
With words like net-branches(MLM anyone), independent pricing ( horrendous markup), in-house products(read markedup WAMU, CountryWide loan) its nasty, mean and WORST has a figleaf of a socially redeeming function - "We are putting homeownership within reach of people who couldn't otherwise own a house)- Jeez !

A whistleblower from that biz should come to this blog and expose in great detail what goes on there. I'll pony up for the Ramen Noodles.

-K; December 31, 2006 5:03 PM
Anonymous said...: So what do all of you do for a living?; December 31, 2006 6:18 PM
Anonymous said...: Why should I or we help them, they only helped themselves!

No tears here!; December 31, 2006 6:19 PM
Anonymous said...: "Isn't it true that all the unemployed realtors will not show up in the government stats?"

That's essentially correct. Almost all realtors are, for tax purposes, independant contractors (as opposed to W-2 employees). Consequently, they have no unemployement taxes withheld, and therefore do not qualify to apply for unemployment benefits. So, they don't show up in the weekly unemployment stats.

Ditto for the illegals.; December 31, 2006 6:21 PM
Anonymous said...: You may laugh now, but wait five years, after this bust is all played out and all you formerly Jealous Bitter Renters (JBRs) wanna buy first house.

Then you will cry as there will be no real estate clerks left:

-No one to skim six-percent off the top of the deal

-No one to tell you "buy now or be priced out forever"

-No one to steer you to their buddy at the shyster mortgage company.

-And, finally, no one to put on five-pounds of makeup (over their Botox-injected faces), stuff themselves into a dress that might have fit ten years ago (when they were waitresses finishing up their GED), and complain while they drive you around to view the fifteenth foreclosure.

THEN you'll miss them.

And another thing.

Have all you JBR thought about the new bubble that will be created in the Ramen Noodle industry?

They're not making any more Ramen, ya know....; December 31, 2006 6:36 PM
stuckinthecity said...: That's essentially correct. Almost all realtors are, for tax purposes, independant contractors (as opposed to W-2 employees). Consequently, they have no unemployement taxes withheld, and therefore do not qualify to apply for unemployment benefits. So, they don't show up in the weekly unemployment stats.
--------------

So you'll want to look for a spike in employment, not the other way around to tell when they all quit.

Consequently, does that mean 'real estate agent' isn't a real job??; December 31, 2006 6:40 PM
stuckinthecity said...: Then you will cry as there will be no real estate clerks left:
-----------

that's where Zillo.com and Buyowner.com 's stock takes off!

Buy now!; December 31, 2006 6:42 PM
Anonymous said...: "I'm surprised that the real estate market here is still humming. Commercial real estate is crazy busy."

Yes. Mike Shedlock (Mish) and I just had an interesting debate on this. Commercial construction vs. Residential downturn.; December 31, 2006 7:53 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: The Local Governments are staring new construction projects building new performing arts centers, roads, Sports Arena's, football Stadiums. They are paying for it all with the new found Property tax wealth, and in an effort to keep the construction industry humming. True here in Orlando anyway.; December 31, 2006 8:01 PM
Anonymous said...: What's an unemployment tax?

Do you mean FICA taxes?

Dumbass, independent contractors pay that just like employees except they pay 12.4% SS tax as opposed to 6.2% as employees.

-----------------------------------
That's essentially correct. Almost all realtors are, for tax purposes, independant contractors (as opposed to W-2 employees). Consequently, they have no unemployement taxes withheld, and therefore do not qualify to apply for unemployment benefits. So, they don't show up in the weekly unemployment stats.

Ditto for the illegals.; December 31, 2006 8:15 PM
Anonymous said...: Check this out. I went to a car dealer and a new car is like $30K. Unrear!!

In the 50s a new car was $2K. At 3% a year increase a new car today should be about $9,000.

No way I'm buying a new car until prices fall back to those levels man.; December 31, 2006 8:30 PM
Anonymous said...: Check this out. I went to a car dealer and a new car is like $30K. Unrear!!

In the 50s a new car was $2K. At 3% a year increase a new car today should be about $9,000.

No way I'm buying a new car until prices fall back to those levels man.; December 31, 2006 8:30 PM
Anonymous said...: noodles,

and the prices of homes on 17 mile drive are down to $168,000 right?; December 31, 2006 8:33 PM
Anonymous said...: Realtors are all money grubbing, promise breaking jerks!

Evidence A:

* Realtors stick with New Orleans. The nation's largest trade association did not pull the carrot away from the hurricane-torn region and decided early in the year to keep its huge annual convention and trade center in the battered yet hopeful Louisiana city. The Realtors chose to keep their convention pledge and this city will never forget it. It was also the biggest real estate story of the year because of its effect on the ravaged region.

The November confab was the first major event in the city - other than New Orleans Saints football games - in more than 14 months. Cab drivers, hotel desk clerks, bartenders and tour operators - the whole city appeared grateful and relieved that a convention crowd had finally returned.

"We thought it was very important to keep our pledge to New Orleans," said Pat Vredevoogd Combs of Grand Rapids, Mich., president of the Realtors association. "We heard rumors that people would get sick, that there would be safety issues, that the rooms wouldn't be ready. We had several research teams visit New Orleans since January and not one person reported that they felt we should move the conference."

Many of the attendees brought their work boots and signed up to help in the city's recovery effort, which included a Realtor-built Habitat for Humanity home, framing other homes, cleaning and beautifying City Park, sorting books at the public library and spiffing up local high schools. Clearly a job well done.

From: http://www.heraldnet.com/stories/06/12/31/100bus_kelly001.cfm; December 31, 2006 8:42 PM
Anonymous said...: Cars in the 50's were built to last only a few years. Apple to oranges.; December 31, 2006 8:59 PM
Anonymous said...: I recommend potatoes 10 lbs for $1.99. RE agents don't call me back, when they find out that I want a bargain for about 1/2 what they are asking, and I don't want to spend $1M.; December 31, 2006 9:13 PM
Anonymous said...: 40%? Ay data?

-----------------------------------
but the average cities where the average person lives have dropped probably close to 40%, nothing in south county is moving or has moved even through the summer months.; December 31, 2006 9:44 PM
Anonymous said...: 4 acre w/1800 sq ft in Carmel for $874K? WOW!!

On realtor.com for $875,000 in Carmel all I see is 1768 sq ft in a subdivision that maybe has a 1/4 on acre.

So I am curious to know where this 4 acre mystery property is.

MLS number?
website of the listing?
picture of a flyer?
Anything?; December 31, 2006 9:52 PM
Anonymous said...: Is this 45% the same as noodles' 40%, ie both imaginary?

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Your story reminds me of the late 80’s just before the big California crash were prices dropped 45%.; December 31, 2006 10:30 PM
Anonymous said...: 45% crash in California EH?

This says 18% in Riverside. 17% in Thousand Oaks. 19% in Los Angeles.

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/analytical/
fyi/2005/021005fyi_table1.pdf

Oh but this is government data which as we all know is never to be trusted.; December 31, 2006 10:35 PM
Anonymous said...: Troll Alert.; December 31, 2006 10:39 PM
Anonymous said...: I am troll because I pointed out there was no 45% crash in California as was stated by devestment?

Prove me wrong.; December 31, 2006 10:40 PM
Anonymous said...: So this is how it works here.

Wingnut: California crashed 45%

Me: No it didn't. Here is government data showing the actual numbers

Wingnut: TROLL!!!

Me: Prove me wrong.

Keith: Delete comments by me.; December 31, 2006 10:42 PM
Anonymous said...: I am wondering if there was a big drop in 1990, will there be an even bigger drop now, since prices are way past where they were in 1990? Maybe new condos dropped 45% -- they dropped 90% in Colorado in the oil bust. Really, a 20% drop is bad enough. Any troll can spout facts -- interpretion of the facts is what differentiates.; December 31, 2006 11:12 PM
Anonymous said...: "Do you mean FICA taxes?

Dumbass, independent contractors pay that just like employees except they pay 12.4% SS tax as opposed to 6.2% as employees."

Hey, asswipe, the unemployment tax is a FUTA tax and is reconciled at the end of the year with an IRS form 940.

Know what you're talking about before you shoot off your idiot mouth.; December 31, 2006 11:16 PM
Anonymous said...: "Yes. Mike Shedlock (Mish) and I just had an interesting debate on this. Commercial construction vs. Residential downturn."

Yeah, too bad you didn't have any good numbers to back up your garbage arguments. Mish tore you a second one.; December 31, 2006 11:20 PM
Anonymous said...: New Cars were 2k in the 50's because the standards, technology, materials were much lower then. Correcting for all the increases in quality, materials, engineering etc the value one gets for the average price of a car today is comparable to the prices in the 50's.

Viewed from a different angle, making 10k a year was considered upper middle class in the 50s. These were the people who could afford a new car for sucha price. By todays standards one must make six figures to equal the 10k salary of the 50's that created the ability to purchase a new care for 2k. Today people with incomes less than six figures can afford 30k cars.

What is the salient fact to draw from this analysis? AFFORDABILITY Cars today are more affordable at 30k relative to middle class wages than a 2k car was in the 50's to an upper middle class wage.

In contrast housing in just 5 years has gone from being affordable for the middle class to only being affordable for the upper middle class, yet the quality of housing in America has gone down dramatically. The exact opposite as what is happening in Autos!! THINK PEOPLE; December 31, 2006 11:39 PM
Anonymous said...: A guy that my sister's boyfriend's buddy works with bought 2 cases of Ramen Noodles in the pre-packaging Phase I and sold them right after the shrink wrap cooled for a HUGE profit!!!

I can get Guido "the Killer Pimp" to finance me with nothing down and a rate that adjusts as with the daily temperature, and I can buy into the end of Phase I packaging... sell when they're finished, and double my money without ever having to pony up for the loan payment with my own money!!!

I found out that they are only selling to people who will actually "EAT" them, so I have to fudge a bit on the paperwork, as if I were the actual consumer.

But hey... nobody can actually "do anything" to you for lying about what you're going to do with the noodles... can they?!?!

Anyway, they're all going up fast, so I'd better get down there and stand in line for the "lottery" to see if I get to contract for any this week!

Later, working fools!!! HA HA HA

Signed,

Noodle Flipper
Future Gajillionaire; December 31, 2006 11:49 PM
Anonymous said...: Cars a lot less affordable today than 45 years ago. Yet people keep on buying cars today. By the reasoning here cars are too expensive and will fall back to 44%. we all know this won't happen just like housing costs won't fall back to te affordability factors of 1960 or 1970 ir 1980 like so many of you are convinced will happen.

1960 median income nationally: $5620
1960 median price of a new car $2500

44.4% of yearly income to buy a new car

2005: Median income was $46,326
2005: median price of car $25,00

55% of yearly income to buy a new car.; December 31, 2006 11:51 PM
Anonymous said...: $25,500; December 31, 2006 11:52 PM
Anonymous said...: re: realpro:
-----------------------------------
Skip the ramens , but go ahead and ask away...10 years as a broker
-----------------------------------
OK. This isn't a small issue. Subprime loans were 40% of the loans recently(2005)so what's going on in that biz is highly relevant.
Q1 : What is a mortgage warehouse, a warehouse Line of credit ?
Q2: Do mortgage brokers have a duty of care to the borrower to ensure that they can actually pay off the loan ?
Q3: Do they have a duty of care to the lender too ?
Q4: How does a no documentation loan meet that duty of care ?
Q5: On a 200K loan subprime loan, how many people make a commission ?
Q6: What are the individual min and max amount of commission on a 200K subprime loan ?
Q7: I read that the same loan one can get from say CountryWide is offered as an in-house product by say, Mortgage Lenders Network. What are the differences in fees and rates between what I would have got if I approached CountryWide directly versus going via a mortgage-broker and thru them to MLN ?
Q8: How does churning by LO ( is that Loan Originator or Officer?) go on ?
Q9: Isn't it a conflict of interest when the mortgage broker and the Loan Originator and seemingly everybody in the chain is paid according to the Yield Spread ? Isn't that an invitation to just jack up the rate to what that poor sap who's walked in can take without arousing their suspicion.
Q10: It is true isn't it that Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac will no long buy the subprime loans, so who IS buying the MBS ? Thats almost 40% of the loans ! That seems to mean that 40% of the loans are of such a lack of quality that FNM, FRE, themselves really lenders of last resort won't buy them ? Are they ending up in pension plans and mutual funds then ?

Thanks.
-K; January 01, 2007 12:56 AM
Anonymous said...: Anon/Troll who persists in car analogy:

1950's car No A/C, automatic was the exception/Three on the tree was the norm, gas guzzlers, etc, etc, etc.

Bald numbers are an insufficient comparison. All the amenities & electronics (e.g. CD players)

Cars are cheaper, I work for DOC, trust me:) I have no vested interest, I just have access to real objective data!! Not biased speculation.

You're a Troll for the REIC, anyone that trusts you will be impoverished.

FYI, I hear about the housing numbers all the time, affordability is down, quality is down, only price is up!!; January 01, 2007 1:07 AM
Anonymous said...: It's called FUTA you shit-brained monkey

------------------------------

What's an unemployment tax?

Do you mean FICA taxes?

Dumbass, independent contractors pay that just like employees except they pay 12.4% SS tax as opposed to 6.2% as employees.; January 01, 2007 1:07 AM
Anonymous said...: I don't know what the official numbers are, I can only state what I experienced. My parents have a house in West Los Angeles. During the late 80's the real estate agents were constantly hounding them, telling them they could get 750,000 for their house (a 1930 L.A. dump).

5 years later during the 90's, realtors were telling them 435,000.

That's a big drop, close to 45%.

I don't trust the NAR's numbers one bit. I go with what my eyes and ears tell me.

When you are evicted from your bubble house you can stand there and say "but, but, the National Association of Realtors said my house was going up in value!". You have my sympathies.; January 01, 2007 1:08 AM
Anonymous said...: Hey shit-brained monkey, if you want to compare cars to houses, then a house should lose 15% of it's value as soon as the new FB moves into the home. Eventually the house will be worthless and be razed just as a car ends up in the pound..

---------------------------------

Cars a lot less affordable today than 45 years ago. Yet people keep on buying cars today. By the reasoning here cars are too expensive and will fall back to 44%.; January 01, 2007 1:10 AM
Anonymous said...: We have a visit from a member of the National Ass. of Realtrolls; January 01, 2007 1:12 AM
Anonymous said...: Realtroll said:

Hey shit-brained monkey, if you want to compare cars to houses, then a house should lose 15% of it's value as soon as the new FB moves into the home. Eventually the house will be worthless and be razed just as a car ends up in the pound..

---------------------------------

Cars a lot less affordable today than 45 years ago. Yet people keep on buying cars today. By the reasoning here cars are too expensive and will fall back to 44%.

1-You're uncivil, base tongue speaks volumes as to your intellect.

2-You're the one that started the flawed comparison of cars to homes, I was just trying to claify the matter with unbiased fact based statements, which just happened to cut against your position, sorry that life & reality.

3-Don't look now but anyone whose bought a home in the last couple of years has lost 15% of their value. Condos even more!!

4-This is in addition to the standard 6% of value a buyer loses to pay for parasitic trolls such as yourself. FYI, its a violation of the sherman act to create an illegal, monopolistic compact. My colleagues at DOJ will be dismembering it shortly.

5-Please start practicing "Do you want fries with that order sir" You're going to need all the practice you can get based upon your current discourteous tongue if you want to keep a real service sector professional position. Good thing for you the minimum wage will be going up soon.

6-Happy New Year, Enjoy the 2007 Spring Non-selling season implosion.; January 01, 2007 1:46 AM
Anonymous said...: Maybe the silver lining from this bubble is that all the homeowners who must sell & w/ no equity to cover transaction costs will expand FSBO direct buyer/seller transactions. They will have real motivation to make them work despite the barriers the REIC puts up to prevent this more efficient transaction. This can serve as evidence that REIC really is just a group of gatekeepers/highwaymen collecting a cut of the action and keep transactions from happening.

This could motivate the powers that be to remove the illegal barriers currently in place that keep transactions occuring? Just a thought. It would be a bit of ironic justice that the greed of REIC resulted in their own demise.; January 01, 2007 2:00 AM
Anonymous said...: So go trust the inflation numbers, housing numbers, employment numbers, etc. It's not like your livelihood depends on it?; January 01, 2007 2:42 AM
Anonymous said...: Happy New Year everyone!!!

Thanks for the great debate. I have to work tonight and you are making it interesting! : ); January 01, 2007 3:43 AM
Miss Goldbug said...: Happy New Year Keith!

Happy New Year fellow bloggers!

Hope you are having a great time where ever you are tonight!; January 01, 2007 4:23 AM
Anonymous said...: "Many of the attendees brought their work boots and signed up to help in the city's recovery effort, which included a Realtor-built Habitat for Humanity home, framing other homes, cleaning and beautifying City Park, sorting books at the public library and spiffing up local high schools. Clearly a job well done".
AHA HA HA HA HA !!!! Now that's FUNNY !!; January 01, 2007 4:55 AM
Anonymous said...: The resourceful ones do not have to eat ramen noodle, but they need to be more careful of not getting caught.; January 01, 2007 5:00 AM
Anonymous said...: "Hey, I hooked up my washing machine today WOOHOOOOOOOO!"

Sounds like an HPer...

HOT!

COLD!

HOT!

COLD!

Oh...

You said hooked up, not hooked up with...; January 01, 2007 10:27 AM
Anonymous said...: "Anonymous said...
"Many of the attendees brought their work boots and signed up to help in the city's recovery effort, which included a Realtor-built Habitat for Humanity home, framing other homes, cleaning and beautifying City Park, sorting books at the public library and spiffing up local high schools. Clearly a job well done".
AHA HA HA HA HA !!!! Now that's FUNNY !!"

Seriously, are you making fun of Katrina volunteers?

What kind of person would do that? Must be an HPer...delighting in Schadenfreude. Are you sure you're not a Nazi Honika?; January 01, 2007 10:30 AM
Anonymous said...: Three houses here in my area (Northern Virginia) went up for sale last year 06, all came down to asking price of 650K, all three were taken off the market, 2 are rented and 1 is sitting there vacant. How does that show up in a stat?; January 01, 2007 12:25 PM
Anonymous said...: A local landlord informed me the other day that Americans will just have to learn that their wages will fall to $6.00 hr soon. He said Americans will have to learn to live with this lower wage.

When I asked him if this lower national average wage meant that his "rent" income would also fall by 2/3's his response was "that will never happen".

Funny aint it? Or am I crazy and the landlord sane?

People can see the trouble this country is in but they dont see themself as being actors on the stage. "Yes the housing bubble will pop but not my house". They say things like this all the time.; January 01, 2007 2:35 PM
Anonymous said...: "Seriously, are you making fun of Katrina volunteers?

What kind of person would do that? Must be an HPer...delighting in Schadenfreude. Are you sure you're not a Nazi Honika?
Must have made a great photo op for the NAR I can see the headline "Look at us helping " then they hop back into the SUV and head back for the hotel bar with not a spec of dirt on the brand new work gloves.; January 01, 2007 2:54 PM
Anonymous said...: Answers, here they are...

OK. This isn't a small issue. Subprime loans were 40% of the loans recently(2005)so what's going on in that biz is highly relevant.
Q1 : What is a mortgage warehouse, a warehouse Line of credit ?

A1 : Thats the line of credit "lenders" use to fund loans until we find a greater fool to buy them. After 90 days your warehouse line gets pissed off...and if a loan defaults in the first 30-60-90-whatever amount of days ya gotta buy it back or go BK7

Q2: Do mortgage brokers have a duty of care to the borrower to ensure that they can actually pay off the loan ?

A2: Only if you want repeat customers(I do) but most dont give a shit at all.

Q3: Do they have a duty of care to the lender too ?

A3: The real shit loans go to lenders you never intend to use again.

Q4: How does a no documentation loan meet that duty of care ?

A4: ROTFLMAO

Q5: On a 200K loan subprime loan, how many people make a commission ?

A5 : Loan officer, manager, broker, title company, mortgage "lender"(who sells to a greater fool), sales rep from "lender", appraiser, bartender, and local coke dealer.

Q6: What are the individual min and max amount of commission on a 200K subprime loan ?

A6: Varies by state but most lenders allow max of 7.99% of loan amount...but "lender" commision for sale to greater fool, and title fees dont count either. There is no minimum. Rustproofing is also not optional, its applied at the factory.

Q7: I read that the same loan one can get from say CountryWide is offered as an in-house product by say, Mortgage Lenders Network. What are the differences in fees and rates between what I would have got if I approached CountryWide directly versus going via a mortgage-broker and thru them to MLN ?

A7: Your broker is going to charge as much as possible...but countrywide reps make commision too, so its really a matter of shopping around.

Q8: How does churning by LO ( is that Loan Originator or Officer?) go on ?

A: Rates drop 1/2 point and the lying prick tells you to refi again even though it may take you 29 an 1/2 years to break even.

Q9: Isn't it a conflict of interest when the mortgage broker and the Loan Originator and seemingly everybody in the chain is paid according to the Yield Spread ? Isn't that an invitation to just jack up the rate to what that poor sap who's walked in can take without arousing their suspicion.

A9: Yes...but every financial transaction has profit built into it. You just have to shop around.
Not trying to be cute, but stockbrokers pump shares all the time for their clients/Firm.

Q10: It is true isn't it that Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac will no long buy the subprime loans, so who IS buying the MBS ? Thats almost 40% of the loans ! That seems to mean that 40% of the loans are of such a lack of quality that FNM, FRE, themselves really lenders of last resort won't buy them ? Are they ending up in pension plans and mutual funds then ?

A10: Theres lots of bond funds...ever see one called "high yield" that where they go...plenty of people on this board own em and dont even know.

Gotta take a nap, Check in later.

posting as anon cus this shit is not meant to be shared...

Thanks.
-K; January 01, 2007 3:04 PM
Anonymous said...: Anonymous said...
......."Yes the housing bubble will pop but not my house". They say things like this all the time.

I am seeing more and more of this kind of 'selective denial', especially now that the housing slow down/crash is popping up regularly on the MSM.

"Sure things are going to get bad, but NOT in my state, county, town, neighborhood, whatever!" After all, no bubble here.

You didn't mention if your landlord friend lives in a bubble area. If he does, it should be interesting to see if he has to eat those high and mighty words sometime in the future, especially as all those underwater FB's start renting those homes to generate some/any kind of cash flow.

Reminds me of the attitude of the politicians: "Sure times are bad. Why should we suffer”?

"It's God's will, OR somebody else’s fault"; January 01, 2007 3:54 PM
sane person said...: HPer 1: I lost 45% on my home in Caliornia in the 1980s

sane person: well actually home prices in California only fell about 15% on average

HPer1: I don't care what statistics say, I lost 45%

HPer2: Yeah me too. I lost 50%. I don't care what statistics say either.

Conclusion: HPers are very poor investors if they lost 50% while everyone around them lost 15%; January 01, 2007 4:26 PM
Anonymous said...: Jean Guy is the only intellegent and only sane poster, so he is the Troll.; January 01, 2007 4:51 PM
Anonymous said...: You didn't mention if your landlord friend lives in a bubble area. If he does, it should be interesting to see if he has to eat those high and mighty words sometime in the future, especially as all those underwater FB's start renting those homes to generate some/any kind of cash flow.
==============================
This landlord resides in "ground zero" for the derivatives explosion, Charlotte NC. Home to derivatives monger "Nations Bank i.e. Bank of America, First Union i.e. Wachovia.

I just found it interesting that his solution to our economic problems was to reduce wages by 2/3's but that he should not share in the pain by lowering the rent he charges those same people who will have their income squashed by 67%.

PS- He is a true Confederate. A believer in share holder value just as his ancestors fought to maintain their "slave holder value".; January 01, 2007 4:51 PM
Anonymous said...: This is an awesome.; January 01, 2007 5:10 PM
sane person said...: I am a troll because I point out you people make up numbers like 45% losses in Cali?

OK then I am a troll. Guilty as charged.; January 01, 2007 5:18 PM
Anonymous said...: do not feed trolls; January 01, 2007 5:21 PM
Anonymous said...: The realtors are beginning to crack.

Crying Realtor

They don't have any sales to keep them busy, so of course that's why they are trolling in here calling people morons.; January 01, 2007 5:37 PM
sane person said...: In HPland anyone who speaks the truth is a troll.

HPland: CA prices fell 45%
Troll: no it was 15% actually

HPland: Ignore the troll; January 01, 2007 5:49 PM
Anonymous said...: 45% drop is possible if people took a bath not to lose it to foreclosure which I believe is coming soon here in Cali.

I myself dropped my price from $585k down to $462K (I had told the realtor to put it at $490K but she swore we would sell at $525K)and I wasn't in the financial pickle some of these people are in. However sales here ARE DEAD AND HAVE BEEN DEAD IN MY AREA FOR OVER 6 MONTHS. Monterey Ca. 93927; January 01, 2007 6:08 PM
Anonymous said...: RE: ANON 3:04 -subprime lending Many thanks..

Anecdotes resonate more with people than dry statistics. So any you can share are welcome.

More Questions:

1. I looked at the rate sheets for Argent and Freemont Mortgage lenders. Those look middle of the road, not too many 100% LTV loans there. Right? Are they other rate sheets to look at as more representative of the subprime market ? Besides the wholesale public rate sheets are there any "nudge-nudge-wink-wink" rate sheets too ?
2. So I can see that the wholesale lender caps the mortgage broker fees. Any creative ways round that ?
3. I see that OHIO actually passed a law stating HOW TO DETERMINE abiity to pay and probability of repayment and as a result Argent won't sell stated income loans there anymore. Are OH one of the first on the legislative bandwagon or the last to climb on ?
4. I keep coming back to "Never mind what the state decrees, the lender must want to ensure that they get their money back and would ensure prudent standards". I must be deluded. HOW though ? I can't get under the lender's skin as it were..

4a. I see the rate sheet actually quotes rates for scores at 580 credit score, 90% LTV, 3 late payments. The rate was 10% before adjustments. It just defies sense..

5. What is this newer product called ALT-A mortgage? The pablum is

"Alt-A is a credit score and higher LTV based product that offers considerable flexibility, ease, of use, expanded occupancy options and minimal documentation to qualify applicants with good credit history."
But good credit history doesn't resonate with "higher LTV", with "minimal doc" - weird.

6. I see that the wholesale lenders were Bear Sterns, Morgan Stanley. Money is fungible I know but it would be great to tie in a specific repo pass that the Federal Reserve did with Bear Sterns say, to a wholesale loan that they did to a mortgage broker right down to a 11%, 90% LTV 620 score Joe Public, Jose Menendez with a DEBT to usable income ratio of 90, 100, 110%..

Then we can put the Federal Reserve in the public stocks, where they belong.

More Ideas ?

-K; January 01, 2007 6:19 PM
Anonymous said...: Very Few in Florida are Concerned About Real Estate or Mortgage Fraud

An Orlando-based title insurance fund recently polled more than 1,000 homeowners in Florida, and despite the fact that the FBI singles out that state as one of the nation’s top 10 hot spots for real estate and mortgage fraud, only one percent (1%) of the state’s homeowners say becoming the victim of a real estate scam is their biggest concern.

According to the survey, which is conducted annually by Attorneys’ Title Insurance Fund, more than two-thirds of those polled said their number one concern with homeownership is affordability. Other concerns include:

* 47 percent say they are concerned about being hit by a storm such as a hurricane

* 16 percent cite the impact of a housing bubble as their biggest concern

* 13 percent say rising mortgage interest rates is their number one concern

* 5 percent indicate depreciating home values tops their list of concerns

While I can certainly understand Hurricanes topping the list of Floridians’ concerns, the fact that only one percent consider real estate fraud a top concern is concerning in and of itself, and the CEO of the company who commissioned the survey feels the exact same way. Charles Kovaleski, CEO of Attorneys’ Title Insurance Fund had this to say about his company’s findings:

Surprisingly, the survey illustrates that Florida homeowners do not rank being the victim of real estate fraud as a higher concern, especially since Florida was recently named the top state in the nation for mortgage fraud. However, we are pleased to see that homeowners are increasingly turning to real estate attorneys to protect their real estate interests, which is significant given that understanding real estate laws is cited as most the confusing part of the home-buying process.“

As with nearly every other state’s efforts in the fight against real estate and mortgage fraud, mandatory fraud reporting is absent in Florida, and while the FBI is doing more now than ever before to help local authorities track reported acts of real estate and mortgage fraud, the system is almost entirely based on reacting to what happens, as opposed to being proactive in an attempt to stop it from happening in the first place.

As I have said many times before, the scammers and bad guys always seem to find ways to navigate around the system to prey on unsuspecting homeowners. We need education, more education, and even more education than that. With one percent of Floridians’ citing fraud as a top concern, will it be any surprise when Florida once again tops the FBI’s list of real estate and mortgage fraud hot spots?

http://www.flippingfrenzy.com/admin/mortgage-fraud/very-few-in-florida-are-concerned-about-real-estate-fraud/; January 01, 2007 6:42 PM
Anonymous said...: “Get-Me-A-Loan.com” created more trouble, several ways. They became less accountable to the public they are to serve, and more self-serving still - the guilt factor was way down, as they never had to look these people in the eye. Loans are sold so fast, those defaulting by the 2nd payment don’t know where to go. The other thing is neither LO nor owner know an appraiser (except by phone/email) so the good ones can hang up or ignore them, and they go to the ones who beg for work by cutting fees and turn time, and stretching values. It’s easier to manipulate homeowners and appraisers long-distance. The check is in the mail, so to speak. When the appraiser talks “sense” to the homeowner, they get no more orders - the web is vast and appraisers, expendable. You learn to shut your mouth and finish the report, so they may send you another. (This is the deal with broker clients) Lender AMC’s have their own ways to keep appraisers in line and silent, not to mention broke.

From above link; January 01, 2007 6:43 PM
Anonymous said...: For all the Realwhore Trolls that keep pining about how HP'ers are all just a bunch of chicken littles please read the following article:

http://econ-www.mit.edu/centers/wel/housingcycles.pdf

The Trolls can continue to spin their lies all the want and then project accusations of fabrication upon HP'ers all they want. HP'ers are just trying to provide a counterpoint to the BS propaganda from the REIC. So read the article and weep and now all you high school drop out realtwhore trolls can start critisizing an MIT study. But before you do it you might want to look up MIT on the internet and realize what source your attacking. I'll even help you, MIT is spelled "M-I-T" and its an acronym. Good luck.; January 01, 2007 7:09 PM
Anonymous said...: MIT is spelled "M-I-T"
++++++++
LOL. Good one, anon HPer.

IW; January 01, 2007 7:46 PM
stuckinthecity said...: "Sure things are going to get bad, but NOT in my state, county, town, neighborhood, whatever!" After all, no bubble here.

Esp NOT in Chicago!; January 01, 2007 8:20 PM
sane person said...: For you to lose 45% at $462,000 you would have had to pay $1.026M. Did you? Didn't think so.

In CA the losses were around 15% last time around with LA county at 19%. Nobody lost 45%.

******
45% drop is possible if people took a bath not to lose it to foreclosure which I believe is coming soon here in Cali. I myself dropped my price from $585k down to $462K; January 01, 2007 10:24 PM
Anonymous said...: conclusion: HPers are very poor investors if they lost 50% while everyone around them lost 15%

You may be right. I definately learned from my mistakes. However, the estate I kept in the best part of Pasadena also lost 45% from the top. I dumped the second homes to keep the primary.; January 01, 2007 10:25 PM
sane person said...: $840,000 not $1.026M; January 01, 2007 10:27 PM
Anonymous said...: I think the Gov. published numbers are not cumulative, therefore deceptive. I also lost about 45% equity from the top in the 90's Los Angeles crash.; January 01, 2007 10:30 PM
Anonymous said...: M-I-T LOL.

Good joke by someone who has a G-E-D; January 01, 2007 10:30 PM
sane person said...: So gov stats are not reliable. NAR stats are unreliable. OK what stats are reliable?; January 01, 2007 10:31 PM
Anonymous said...: oh and Mr. M-I-T joke guy

you might want to investigate the difference between

YOUR and YOU'RE

as in realize what source your attacking

should read realize what source your're attacking

Guess you weren't in G-E-D class that day; January 01, 2007 10:34 PM
Anonymous said...: True Gov. and NAR stats are spun.
Only Sane Person edits for HPers.
He also is invisible HP.; January 01, 2007 10:43 PM
sane person said...: Why am I troll? Because I'm pointing out that some of the predictions here are a little off by historical standards?

Geez excuse me for not being in 100% agreement with you on 90% housing prices crashing.; January 01, 2007 11:09 PM
Anonymous said...: OOPs my mistake we have one realtwhore troll who can proof read. So s/he will have alternatives to the fast food industry.

FYI, non-substantive attacks regarding a common spelling error on an informal forum does nothing to alter the content of the MIT report, nor "you're" pending unemployment status.

For the record I have a BS, MS & a JD and I'm a practicing Patent Attorney. So I am not qualified to be realtwhore troll, which last time I checked required neither a GED nor high school diploma. Just small minded petty greed and a compulsion to lie through their teeth to land a commission, but do nothing constructive to earn it. Hence my concern that MIT might be a bit beyond "you're" mental grasp. This was born out to be a correct assumption as evidenced by "you're" grasping at petty, small minded straws.

PS - I had a few spelling errors in the post also, feel free to tire the squirrel that keeps the lights on in "you're" head to find them. It will be good practice for "you're" career in proofing the handbills you'll be handing out with the other unemployed, homeless bums in the very near future.

TA TA; January 01, 2007 11:36 PM
Anonymous said...: Geez excuse me for not being in
____________
You hide behind sex comments and grapic obsene insults, steal other peoples handles and the claim to be sane?

Please ignore him HP.; January 01, 2007 11:44 PM
Anonymous said...: a lawyer who can't distinguish between your and you're...ha ha no wonder you're renting your apartment; January 02, 2007 12:43 AM
Anonymous said...: troll alert sure is ready to censor anyone who diagrees with him...can't debate facts so we must censor huh?

oh well this is how renters behave I suppose; January 02, 2007 12:44 AM
Anonymous said...: Please continue to prove the rationale world correct by being a realtwhore that ignores the facts and conducts faints to avoid "your" losing position in the debate.

I know how to analyze the facts, come to rationale conclusions and act upon them. I delegate small trivial tasks such as proof reading of blog posts to people such a you. Its free and entertaining.

Current analysis says rent. I've owned twice and am batting .500 due to the lies of a realtwhore such as yourself. As facts change and analysis points to purchase it will take longer to get around the monopolistic barriers created by NAR and realtwhores. I will not have a buying agent & I will use that fact as justification to further lower the price. I will prefer FSBO to elminate parastic scum such as "yourself" from the transaction. Currently all my assets are returning double digit returns that I am realizing immediately. Currently FBs that "you've" sucked into overpriced bubble homes seeing their downpayments and equity evaporate into negative territory relative to their mortgage balance before their very eyes.; January 02, 2007 1:35 AM
Anonymous said...: Re. the statement "things could get bad, but not in my state, county, city, etc.:

A Seattle realtor last year took the cake when he said: "things could get bad, but not in this neighborhood, although you might see an INDIVIDUAL HOUSE or two go down." !!!

What a numbnut!; January 02, 2007 1:55 AM
Anonymous said...: I'm finally starting to get the pictire on you imbeciles

In the 80s you bought some r/e based on the advice of a real estate agent. You got fucked hard. You then swore off r/e. You saw the boom in r/e pass you buy. Now you hope against hope that prices will fall back to 90s levels so you can get back in.

Sorry numbfucks, it ain't happening.; January 02, 2007 2:08 AM
Anonymous said...: enjot living in the 1 bed/1bath 2nd floor apartment with niggers and spics as your neighbors; January 02, 2007 2:09 AM
Anonymous said...: Look at this lovely studio apt I found in L.A.. Only $1200 a month. WOW!!! Stupid me I pay $1500 a month for a 4 bedroom home!!!

http://tinyurl.com/yxs4tm; January 02, 2007 2:14 AM
Anonymous said...: WOW!!! Only $1900 for a 2 bedroom apartment. It's 897 sq. ft too!! And only minutes from LAX...those 747s sure must be soothing at 1:00am

I am paying $1500 mortgage for a 4 bedroom home with 2800 sq ft. Boy oh boy, I sure wish I was a renter instead.

http://tinyurl.com/y2veoc; January 02, 2007 2:18 AM
Anonymous said...: SANE PERSON....not the one with the 45% arguement...I'm the one with sales are down about 40% in my area arguement...I did agree with the 45% arguement if you have to sell now off the peak price out of necessity...Lender at here in salinas was telling me about how banks are taking a bath because people are just giving up trying to pay the mortgages...he was talking about 15 a week which in a small city like Salinas is quite a few...in the end some places will be hit hard some not as hard BUT overall it's a sad situation that will hopefully make Americans wake up and quit getting fucked with out drinks and dinner first; January 02, 2007 8:44 AM
Anonymous said...: I like HP. I like to keep tabs on what the extremists are thinking/doing. If blogs were around back then, who knows, the OKC bombing may have been prevented.

All I can hope for is that the FBI is watching, taking notes and recording IP addresses.; January 02, 2007 6:00 PM
Anonymous said...: oh oh someone's getting paranoid about the FBI.....better run to the Mountains of Montana and hide out; January 02, 2007 6:03 PM
Anonymous said...: "I am paying $1500 mortgage for a 4 bedroom home with 2800 sq ft. "

More details biotch. Interest Only crowd? Neg-Am clan? 50 year mortgage tards? Which one is it!!??; January 03, 2007 1:41 AM
foxwoodlief said...: dumbhomeowner said he pays $1500 for a 4 bedroom and that the renter paying $1900 for an apartment by LAX is an idiot. Maybe.

There are many places where people pay $1500 or less for a 4 bedroom...just not many in California unless they bought years ago...oh, yes, rents don't go up do they?

Here in Austin there are plenty of house for less than that a month PITI and Austin is expensive by Texas standards and not a hell hole place to live. I pay that for a half million dollar place and no it isn't interest only, fifty year loan but a fifteen year loan and yes that payment is 15% of my income. Not everybody out there is over extended.

And yes, here in Austin you can easily pay $1500 for a 2 bedroom apartment in the Central city. Sure I can rent for less...not my house because homes this size and in the hills go for $2100-5000 a month, but a small efficiency or one bedroom, sure I can find one for $500-650 and if I didn't have a family and plan on living here maybe I would if it would help me meet a goal.

I guess that is the one thing that gets old on this site, people thinking every homeowner is stupid and every renter is brilliant. As I've posted before, only about 10% of the people I know via work or friends has financial troubles or one paycheck away from the door. The rest are doing okay or well. Even in California I am amazed at how all my family and friends survive and seem to make out so well since I'd never live there because of the high cost of living.

To own or rent is a personal choice based on your personal goals, needs, and finances. Stop putting everyone in the same basket.; January 03, 2007 5:26 PM
Anonymous said...: "Even in California I am amazed at how all my family and friends survive and seem to make out so well since I'd never live there because of the high cost of living."

Yeah but I guarantee you wish you were one of us that bought a home in CA in 2001 now worth 3 times! But you chose Austin :-(; January 03, 2007 9:03 PM

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