December 31, 2006

The Euro soon to overtake the US Dollar for notes in circulation


So you thought your dollars were the world's reserve currency, right? You thought it was a great thing to see house prices leap (in US$) so much over the past few years, right? You thought the Dow setting record highs (in US$) was great for America, right? You thought trade deficits with China, runaway government spending and crushing US Debt didn't matter, right?

Wrong.


The dollar is simply going the way of the realtor. Slowly and surely, it becomes less and less respected, less and less trusted, and less and less valuable.

Get ready America. The times they are a-changin...

Euro notes cash in to overtake dollar

The US dollar bill’s standing as the world’s favourite form of cash is being usurped by the five-year-old euro.

The value of euro notes in circulation is this month likely to exceed the value of circulating dollar notes, according to calculations by the Financial Times. Converted at Wednesday’s exchange rates, the euro took the lead in October.

83 comments:

Anonymous said...

I don't see the correlation with a realtor and the USD. One evolved from someone in town that put deals together. The other was a currency backed with ONLY gold and silver. Real estate agents haven't changed much. The USD isn't backed by jack.

Be careful in what you wish for. The alternative to both could be chaos.

Anonymous said...

The Euro may be inflating at a slightly
lower rate than the USD, but its still
only worth the crap it can wipe off my
ass.

The SAmericans may be going to do something
really smart. A silver Peso! Now that
sounds like reall effing money.

-mc

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

When the Euro first came out, what, four or five years ago, and in the original European Union plan to go to the Euro, the challenge of the US Dollar as the world's reserve currency began with intent. Now they are getting closer to their goal.
The USD Run may be the final nail in its money coffin.

buzz saw said...

Bring on the twenty dollar silver piece. The Euro will go the way of the dollar sooner or later.

sk said...

So long as the Feds stick to their charter of full employment and low inflation, their belief in the Chicago School of Economics and the Taylor rule, then in every scenario I can construct their actions lead to a lower dollar.

One thing that might have helped the dollar was international turmoil - the ancient ditty "When I find myself in times of trouble, the dollah bill comes to me" starts playing in peoples heads.

I don't think so anymore. The US has lost huge international standing and its current account and trade deficits scare off people.

Another possibility is that the French take action ( yes they can they say,"national emergency" override clauses on the independence of the ECB and so on ) to prevent the ECB from conducting policies that keep European inflation low. They are particularly concerned about the loss of competitiveness for the Airbus - I can't see why one lousy industry would matter so much but in any case, Airbus Industrie say their uncle point is $1.40 and desperation sets in at $1.60. At $1.32 at last count, we've got a long way to go on that score.

We won't get exchange controls till it gets that high either - and I ought to be out of the dollar to a substantial degree by then.

The dollar is f*cked. I'm systematically moving out of it of course but along the way it really messes up my thinking on equity trades, long or short. All the time, I think, damnit, the risk reward ratio is hard to justify, why bother, just buy the euro ETF, the FXE and go skiing.

I really wish I could see it differently. Its SUCH a hassle for me to keep this in the forefront - but this is one thing that I find my US friends simply don't take on board. Many of them don't know of the way the exchange ratio has changed - DOWN for 2 years, nice spike UP for 1 year, DOWN again 9 months - they don't know the arrival of the euro ETF - they don't know how EXPENSIVE it is in London now. They don't realize that 17% pa DOW gains for those long on the Dow are mediocre when adjusted for currency. Its so strange.

-K

WhiteTower said...

I wouldn't much too much confidence in anything European. Most European countries will be Islamic within 40-50 years. And then they will be completely worthless.

devestment said...

The SAmericans may be going to do something
really smart. A silver Peso! Now that
sounds like reall effing money.


Do you have a tinyurl for this?

Anonymous said...

sk,

It's not strange. We Americans (HPers excluded of course) don't give a shit.

I lived in Canada for a while and one of the strangest things to me about the people was this un-natural obession with the USA. Half the stories in a newspaper or the 11 o'clock news were about Americans. Even mundane things like a tornado in Texas would be headline news on the CBC.

And what really irked Candians was the fact that Americans didn't know anything about Canada. There was this show called 22 Minutes of News or something like that which was a Canadian version of the Jon Stewart show. Pretty funny stuff actually even though I didn't get a lot of the references relating to Canadian politicians. One episode I recall was a "correspondent" went to Alabama and interviewed the governor. The gov was asked things like who is the Canadian PM, what is the Canadian capital and other trivial questions like that. Of course the Alabama gov had no clue. And this was funny, yet taken as an insult to the Canadians.

I told a friend of mine there that this should be expected. Canada is so insignificant in the big scheme of things to Americans that it makes sense Americans don't know anything. I asked him if he knew the Capital and PM of Bolivia. He did not. I pointed out to him that Canada is important to the US like Bolivia is important to Canada....not very in both cases.

And this goes for the UK, for France, for Germany, etc. For the 90% of Americans who don't have direct contact through business of family, it doesn't matter what Germany does, what Canada does, what France does.

So London is expensive? OK. London has a new exchange?fan-freaking-tastic!! Did you hear, Chili's has a $9.99 all you can eat ribs special Tuesday night? Now that's info I can use.

Now that Keith lives in London he's fallen into this trap. How dare the Yanks not care about me ad my concerns in London? I dunno Keith, maybe cuz we have our own issues here and don't have time to solve Londonsitan's problems.

Bake McBride said...

U.S. interest rates are falling/not rising while European interest rates are rising/not falling. Money tends to flow to high-inflation-adjusted-rate countries.

It has nothing to do with the possibility that the U.S. may be entering a recession or a slowdown in growth. In fact, historically, as nations fall into slowdowns, the real interest rate -- nominal rates minus inflation rates -- rise and their currencies rise.

The dollar tends to rise in a recession.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Chris Laird
http://www.prudentsquirrel.com/
Dec 21, 2006

This article is going to discuss the growing world discontent with the USD. Previously, although the US fiscal and trade deficits were in danger territory, the US trade partners were willing to continue to accumulate USD foreign reserves as they sold masses of everything under the Sun to the US.

They benefited from massive economic growth, and let the USD hot money circulate in their economies as washed hot money (hot money comes in as USD and then is changed into local currency or lent out in local currency - this causes lending and asset bubbles locally, creating a seeming endless prosperity bubble until that comes to the inevitable end and they have massive inflation or asset bubble collapses). Ultimately this hot money issue will decide the USD fate anyway, but there are sinister looking issues, particularly with China, that may cause a USD crisis in 07.

Effect of a serious USD drop on your savings

As far as the USD is concerned, there is a growing consensus that our trade partners are getting tired of accumulating the USD. If this becomes severe enough, the USD will experience a rapid fall in value on the order of over 30% in a year. The US stock and bond markets would collapse, and US interest rates rise into the teens at the least. The value of your 401k savings and other cash type accounts would drop 30% in USD terms based on the rising prices of everything, and another 30 to 50% in nominal USD value as well as the stock and bond markets collapsed. Net USD/real value of losses to your 401ks? Very possibly over 60% - in one year.

If the USD devalues heavily in 07, we could be talking losses on the order of 60% net real value of USD financial assets. I get the impression that most people only think their dollar accounts would devalue modestly - perhaps 10% if the USD were to devalue heavily in 07. They are mistaken. The value would drop more on the order of what I just calculated in real terms - in any case probably over 50%. The losses would be from a lower USD value combined with dropping stock and bond market values - things which every 401k and other retirement account is based on.

The US and every trade partner is hoping the USD could gradually devalue. They will work together for that end. That may happen. However, there is a serious level of risk the USD decline could get out of control. Central banks don’t have all the cards. Markets can panic and outrun central bank efforts to stabilize things.

That exact same calculus is understood by our trade partners and will affect their USD holdings in the same exact way. The only reason why the USD has held up so far is because our trade partners do indeed understand this calculus, and have been so far able to stem any serious USD mini crises. The problem is, at some point there will be one mini crisis that is not stemmed, then we look over the edge of the precipice. It would not all happen in one fell swoop, but, at the end of a year, we could easily see a net 50% loss of real value of any USD holding.

The present USD situation with China and the US arguing over revaluing the Yuan has the potential to be the crisis that finally is the USD’s undoing. Particularly since the US Congress is probably going to go ahead with US trade sanctions on China. China will threaten to retaliate by dumping the USD- a kind of economic doomsday weapon. Whether they actually do that, to their own great harm, is not clear. But the latest crisis is very revealing on the dynamics we are looking at going into 07. China appears absolutely determined to stay the course, and not move much in the direction the US wants - they need millions of new jobs a year to deal with about 800 million poor and angry Chinese who have yet not benefited from their economic miracle. China considers their economic growth as central to resolving this. China is having 70,000 public demonstrations a year now. That number is rising as well.

Latest rumored USD mini crisis

Last week, there were meetings between Treasury Secretary Paulson and Fed Chair Bernanke, and other ‘A’ team US trade and banking representatives with China. This meeting resulted in a number of internet rumors and some verifiable comments that China is not giving in to US demands for a revalued Yuan/RMB. That is causing the US congress to get very mad, there are trade sanctions coming in 07. The Chinese evidently threatened to dump the USD - they have about a $trillion. Then a very interesting development - the Mid East oil nations stated they will be severely harmed by a collapsing USD if China dumps it. They threatened to embargo oil to China should they dump the USD. All of this shows how high the stakes are going into 07 for the USD - and how serious this USD situation is now. I think we can say, the USD situation is now at a crisis stage.

Anonymous said...

You forgot, "Granted that's a worst case scenario".

Anonymous said...

i watch the tv show, davincis code, produced by canadian television, very good material, although the accents make it somewhat slow, thespian oratory style, to my ears. the lightings are distinctly canadian. a great country, although somewhat socialist, showing a pleasant diversity, still the quebecers want out!

Anonymous said...

yet, they mine those coins at those wages, it could be a very expensive currency? the convience of plastic, may demand equatable numbers,

stuckinthecity said...

Is the Euro that much better or is the USD just that bad?

Anonymous said...

$9.99 all you can eat special at chili's? I'm so there man.

Anonymous said...

Euro? Has anyone seen the EU constitution? The EU constitution is as thick as a book. Nothing more than a trade agreement. They call it the "EU" but then they want muslim Turkey in the EU. Sounds like mixed up priorities -- ah, its just business and nothing more.

Anonymous said...

Wow Keith, genius. Why would 456,953,258 people in the European Union need more hard currency than the 290,000,000 in the US (plus 20,000,000 "mexicans" who the "Bush administration" is "hiding" from the census and bloggers)?

You should post a doomsday scenario about New Years Eve. Make sure to mention a biblical prophet and a famous contemporary economist.

-gw

Anonymous said...

This meeting resulted in a number of internet rumors and some verifiable comments that China is not giving in to US demands for a revalued Yuan/RMB. That is causing the US congress to get very mad, there are trade sanctions coming in 07. The Chinese evidently threatened to dump the USD - they have about a $trillion.

This makes no sense to me. Chinese don't want to raise the yuan/USD---and then threaten to dump a trillion dollars of stuff? If they dump all that dollar denominated stuff and buy some other currency or turn it back into yuan, then surely the dollar will go down vs yuan and other currencies. Maintaining their peg will be even harder then.

Try to figure out how it works. They have a trillion in what, Treasury bonds, and threaten to sell. When they sell, they will end up with dollars in cash in banks, which is really nearly equivalent to short term Treasury bills. So far, they've just steepened the yield curve. Oooh we're scared now. It's interesting to bond traders, but joe six-pack isn't going to care that much. A little turbulence in interest rates, but a yield curve normalizing isn't a horrible thing.

Only now if they actually try to change this remaining currency----will things change. And what will they do then? Change to euros and yen and and swissie pounds (the only major free floating currencies)?

"Do as we say or your european vacations will get really expensive!" --- That's not going to work. Japan will intervene to keep the yen low too.

If the Chinese try to buy yuan with it, then they get back to the same problem---if they maintain the peg the dollars converting into yuan have to be "sterilized" and put back in the central bank's reserve account from which they started. If they don't, they have let the currency float. Which is what the US wanted them to do in the first place.

The correct alternative is what they're doing already. Buying oil, minerals and weaponry. It would be simplest to let it float so their purchasing power is greater.

Now here's the real difference. If they floated the yuan then all the Chinese would have greater purchasing power to get what *they* want. If they peg and accumulate lots of money, the Communist party has increased exclusively its own purchasing power.

That's why they don't want to unpeg.

Anonymous said...

Oh yeah, and steal charts from a Powerpoint slide from page 20 of a lecture at Ohio State without giving the author credit. Then take it out of context and offer no supporting evidence of your theory.

"Looks bad folks. The line is red!"

-gw

Anonymous said...

The EU has 470 million people. The USA has 300 million.

What this means is that the Euro is now preferred for black market cash transactions.

Also: there is a 500 euro paper note, but the biggest (and most counterfeited) is the $100 note.

The EU also desperately wants to preserve their export industries and doesn't want the euro to get too strong.

I attribute this to the rise of the black market and shady oligarchs in Russia who make their money from oil. As most of their money comes in as euros it makes sense. Also, the black market in the EU/MidEast muslim trading paths.

There will be eventually continental blocs: North and South America will remain dollar oriented, Europe & Russia will be euro oriented, and the East will eventually be yuan oriented. (Yen will eventually peg to yuan).

Africa stays in the shitter.

Unknown will be mideast. They'll be plutonium oriented. Maybe a currency backed by oil & gas?

Anonymous said...

$500 Euro note!! That proves the Euro is worthless doesn't it?

Anonymous said...

Unbelievable that an American would compare their relationship with Bolivia to that of Canada. Canada is your largest trading partner in the world and supplies the majority of your oil. You are also dependent on Canada for water, hydro, comedians....

Anonymous said...

...and the fact that Canadians know what is going on in the U.S. is because our media gives information about things going on globally. Most U.S. news stations only show news directly related with U.S. interests, not global interests, which is probably why American are generally so ignorant about the rest of the world.

Also, what passes semi-serious news in the U.S. is more like tabloid crap in other counties and is totally biased.

Anonymous said...

majority of the oil in the US is imported from Canada.

Really? Must be that new math they teach in publik skools I guess.

2006 YTD average of 12,000 barrels imported into the US per day. Of that Canada contributes 2262 or 18.85%.

So now 18.85% is considered a majority...interesting.
------------------------------------

Canada is your largest trading partner in the world and supplies the majority of your oil. You are also dependent on Canada for water, hydro, comedians....

Anonymous said...

Dependent on Canada for water eh?

I guess the 469,497 sq km of water within the US is protected solely for water skiing?

--------------------------------------
Canada is your largest trading partner in the world and supplies the majority of your oil. You are also dependent on Canada for water, hydro, comedians....

Anonymous said...

Unknown will be mideast. They'll be plutonium oriented. Maybe a currency backed by oil & gas?
))))))))))
UAE is buying Euros.
Saudi's Gold.

foxwoodlief said...

This should provide an idea of how much a house cost in the 80's for sale 1980's

Whenever possible we tried to pick a mix new or nearly new homes and plots of land to provide an idea of how much buying a home cost in the 1980's with 3 different homes from 3 different locations
Year House Type Location Description Price
1980 Ranch Syracuse
New York 3 bedroom 1 and 1/2 bath 2 car garage , family room $40,500
1980 Colonial Home Syracuse
New York 2 full baths 3 bedroom, solarium, huge kitchen all appliances $34,900
1980 1 bedroom Condo Syracuse
New York 1 bed all appliances floor to floor carpet good view $22,500
1980 Lakefront Property Syracuse
New York 3 bedrooms , fireplace , year round home $47,900





Year House Type Location Description Price
1981 4 Bed Wellsboro
Pennsylvania 4 bedroom private study Laundry room patio $47,500
1981 10 acres land Wellsboro
Pennsylvania Drilled well 1/2 clear 1/2 wooded $9,600
1981 Log Cabin on 5 acres Wellsboro
Pennsylvania 3 bedroom 1 bath $19,900

Year House Type Location Description Price
1982 Ranch Annapolis
Maryland 3 bedroom $47,900
1982 Townhouse Annapolis
Maryland 2 bedroom garden court $53,500
1982 New Single Family Homes Annapolis
Maryland Just building new choose color and appliances if you order now from $64,900


Year House Type Location Description Price
1984 Split level Chicago
Illinois 4 beds 2 baths $83,900
1984 Brick Tudor Chicago
Illinois 3 bedroom all modern appliances double garage sundeck $119,000
1984 1 bed condo Chicago
Illinois Lake views $41,900
1984 Townhouse Chicago
Illinois 2 bed 1 bath $47,000

Year House Type Location Description Price
1985 Condo Elyria
Ohio 2 bedroom condo overlooking lake $59,900
1985 4 bedroom Cape Cod Elyria
Ohio 4 years old 3 beds 2 car attached garage $53,900
1985 Building Plot Elyria
Ohio 2 acres $17,000
1985 10 acres plus 3 bed home Elyria
Ohio Fully modernised all appliances large kitchen $71,000

Year House Type Location Description Price
1986 2 acres Pinedale
Wyoming Tack and Fly shed 4 bedrooms $94,000
1986 Starter Home Pinedale
Wyoming 2 beds 1 bath $48,000
1986 1 acre lot Pinedale
Wyoming Cleared with well $9,000

Year House Type Location Description Price
1988 New Homes Syracuse
New York New 3 bedroom homes From $86,590
1988 Split Level Syracuse
New York 3 bedroom 2 car garage 1 1/2 baths $76,000
1988 New Homes Village Setting Syracuse
New York New Townhouses 3 bedrooms overlooking local forest from $130,000

Year House Type Location Description Price
1989 Country Home Placerville
California 1 acre 4 bedrooms wrap round porch Bay Windows $166,000
1989 Mini Ranch Placerville
California Mini Ranch Horse 3 acre fencing 3 bedrooms barn and other outbuildings $104,000
1989 Executive Home Placerville
California 4 acres 5 bedrooms laundry room den lounge swimming pool 5 years old kitchen aid appliances air conditioned $335,000

Did you buy a home in the 80's tell us about it

I was looking at this site that gave all this information for every year since 1900 and as it well shows for the past 106 years home prices have been very erratic from one part of the nation to another with certain areas historically being two to three times or more higher than other areas. One price I saw was for a place in Pinedale Wy and I was there this summer and wondered how anyone could pay so much for a cabin in the middle of nowhere and then saw back in the 50s the prices were as outrageous compared to other areas so I guess it shows that prices around the nation are linked and will rise and fall in sync but that if a person thinks that they want a house for $350,000 in California then prices have to fall accordingly in Odessa Tx and it shows that incomes can fall to so the ratio of affordability doesn't change that much either.

Anonymous said...

foxwood,

You want insanne home prices...go a little north of Wyoming into Montana. In the past 10-15 years it has become the favorite place of Hollywood. Ted Turner and Robert Redford kicked it off and now there are thousands of rich folk playing cowboy up there on ranches. Land prices have skyrocketed in a lot of the state especiallly in the NW part near Kalispell and in the Bozeman area too.

On paper you look at that and think why the hell would anyone pay $750,000 for a cabin out here. Makes no sense but I'll bet anything that $750,000 will be $1M by 2010 and all this with Montana's median household income at $30K.

Anonymous said...

To Anon who wrote:
"Euro? Has anyone seen the EU constitution? The EU constitution is as thick as a book. Nothing more than a trade agreement. They call it the "EU" but then they want muslim Turkey in the EU. Sounds like mixed up priorities -- ah, its just business and nothing more."

So what's your point with regard to Euro?

Anonymous said...

As far as the USD is concerned, there is a growing consensus that our trade partners are getting tired of accumulating the USD. If this becomes severe enough, the USD will experience a rapid fall in value on the order of over 30% in a year. The US stock and bond markets would collapse, and US interest rates rise into the teens at the least. The value of your 401k savings and other cash type accounts would drop 30% in USD terms based on the rising prices of everything, and another 30 to 50% in nominal USD value as well as the stock and bond markets collapsed. Net USD/real value of losses to your 401ks? Very possibly over 60% - in one year.
+++++++++
OMG! Something to look to in 2007 (she said with a sigh). Happy New Year to you too....

Anonymous said...

60%? WHOA!!

Sane Person said...

No really,

This is all a joke right. Kind of a candid camera on the web. I mean nobody really believes their 401k wil be worth 60% less next year.

Or is this site really being run from an insane asylum?

Gotta be something like that. No way grown, sane people really believe even 1/5 fo what is written here.

Anonymous said...

canada exports appro 1.8 million bbd
they venezula next 1.4 million
followed by saudi arabia

Anonymous said...

Three Oil Producers: Three Ways of Life
May 24, 2006 — Saudi Arabia, Norway and Venezuela are three of the world's most prolific oil producers, but each has very different ways of spending an oil fortune.

Saudi Arabia has the world's largest oil reserves. The latest oil boom allows the Saudis to live in luxury, surrounded by soaring skyscrapers and fashionable Western-style bars.

The Saudi government controls 100 percent of the oil. But, as the population balloons and the country shows the first signs of poverty in recent years, Saudi leaders are promising to share the wealth as never before.

Gasoline was cut to 61 cents a gallon. There is a new national fund for the poor, and teachers have been promised new schools.

Venezuela: Oil and Socialism

Venezuela has some of the richest reserves in the Western Hemisphere and leftist President Hugo Chavez is buying influence abroad and at home. He has been giving an outpouring to his strongest supporters, the poor. ABC News visited socialist-style cooperatives that supply jobs, cheap groceries and free health care.

At gas stations in Venezuela, gas is the cheapest thing for sale. Bottled water costs 15 times as much as gasoline, which costs 11 cents a gallon.

Norway: Richest Country in the World

Norway is the world's third-largest exporter and has quietly become the richest country in the world. Per capita, Norwegians are 25 percent richer than American, all because of vast oil fields in the icy waters of the North Sea.

Norway is saving nearly all its oil wealth by taxing oil profits by 78 percent to build a huge national savings account for when the oil dries up.

Even gasoline is heavily taxed. It costs $7.30 a gallon — the world's most expensive price.

This story was reported by ABC News' Jim Sciutto

Anonymous said...

Good for Norway.

Anonymous said...

One of the major goals of the Clinton/Gore push for deficit reduction and budget surplus was so that the US Dollar would be more attractive as a reserve currency against the debut of the
Euro Dollar back in 2000.

Each EuroZone nation is required to maintain a budget surplus,so guess where that leaves us!

To those of you who voted for Clinton twice yet voted for Bush in 2000.....

WHAT THE HELL WERE YOU THINKING???

Anonymous said...

What happens when the EU fragments or Europe is taken over by the Muslims and Africans? It will happen in about 20 years. The most popular name for newborns in many European countries is Mohammed. These people aren't exactly trying to assimilate into their host countries. How much will your Euros be worth then?

Richard said...

The Death Of Cash

London Mirror | December 29, 2006
Matt Roper

MONEY talks - and in the very near future it will be talking through your mobile phone.

Fumbling for coins in your pocket will be a thing of the past as the latest technology lets you load up your phone with credit and pay by simply pointing it at the till.

It's further proof that new technology is killing off hard cash.

In the coming year, even the smallest purchases will be paid for electronically after credit card giants Visa and Barclaycard struck a deal to create the next generation of "wave and pay" cards for purchases of less than £10.

Users will simply wave the card across a scanner to pay for small items for which they would normally use coins, such as their Daily Mirror or a pint of beer.

But the Baja Beach Club in Barcelona has taken the technology one step further by having tiny data chips implanted surgically under customers' skin.

The VeriChip then allows clubbers to pay for drinks by waving their arm across the counter.

Already more purchases are made on plastic than in cash, and a study by retail analyst Datamonitor suggests that cards could replace cash altogether within 10 years.

Last year Mastercard launched Cashplus, the first UK version of the pre-paid plastic cards popular in the US. No bank account is needed as they can be topped up at the Post Office.

Oyster cards, which many Londoners use to pay for public transport, now account for 70 per cent of Tube and bus journeys.

Tesco is apparently considering its first totally cashless store while German hypermarket Real is trialling stores where customers can only pay with a credit or debit card.

But your mobile phone is likely to be the biggest threat to cash. Last year a new EU ruling eased the restrictions on using them to pay for goods, and soon we will be able to pay for anything from theatre tickets to parking fees simply by sending a text message.

In Berlin, shoppers can already buy a drink by sending a text message to the vending machine. The charge is added to the monthly phone bill.

Experts believe it won't be long before so-called "mobile commerce" - or m-commerce - takes off, especially in countries with better mobile phone networks than banks.

In Kenya customers can borrow, transfer and pay money using SMS text messages.

In the UK, you could buy groceries from your local market, or pay a restaurant bill, simply by tapping your PIN into your mobile and pressing 'send'.

THE latest handsets send bank details via an infrared beam from the phone straight to the till.

In South Korea, they can be used with drinks machines, petrol stations and anywhere else with the "receiving" technology.

Mark Bowerman, from the Association of Payment Clearing Services, says: "People use cards more than cash, but the data on a card can be stored anywhere.

"There's no reason why it can't be kept on your mobile phone, or even underneath the skin on your wrist."

Consumer groups are suspicious of moves to abolish cash transactions.

Janice Allen, from the National Consumer Council, says: "One of the most worrying aspects of replacing cash is the reliance on making our personal information widely available."

HISTORY OF CASH..

640-630 BC: The first coins made in Lydia, Asia Minor.

30 BC: Julius Caesar issues coins for the Roman empire, including Britain.

AD630: Small silver coins known as sceats minted in south-east England.

AD790: King Offa introduces a silver penny - 240 from a pound of silver.

1281: Edward I issues three new coins, the ha'penny, farthing and groat.

1504: Henry VII issues shilling coins.

1560: The pound sterling is established by Elizabeth I.

1633: First note is issued as evidence of ability to pay.

1833: Bank of England notes made legal tender in England and Wales.

1971: Britain decimalises its currency.

Richard said...

The Dinar will replace all fiat currencies.

Backed in real GOLD and real SILVER.

Anonymous said...

I got this from an HPer a few months ago, on this note a good read.


http://london.sonoma.edu/Writings/IronHeel/

Anonymous said...

"What happens when the EU fragments or Europe is taken over by the Muslims and Africans? "

A break up of the EU in the nearby future is a lot closer than most people think. All my relatives in Euruope and everyone they know are sick and tired of the violent crimes committed by muslim men, the rape of European women in particular. They are even more tired on the elitist officials and the leaders in Brussels who act as apologists for muslisms and who try to arrest citizens who speak their mind.

A massive right-wing movement is now occuring in Europe and a civil war is likely to occur in the next couple of decades.

I have no idea why so many people have faith in the euro. I'd rather invest in gold and diamonds any day.

Anonymous said...

http://london.sonoma.edu/Writings/IronHeel/

The Iron Heel By Jack London

First published by Macmillan, 1908

Anonymous said...

Romania and Bulgaria join the EU

Romanian soldiers raise the EU flag during a ceremony at the government headquarters in Bucharest
Officials celebrated as the EU flag was raised in Bucharest
Huge celebrations have been held in Romania and Bulgaria to mark their accession to the European Union, 17 years after the fall of Communism.

Thousands attended concerts in the two capitals, Bucharest and Sofia.

Several European leaders joined in a folk dance in Bucharest, and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso delivered a speech in Sofia.

Their entry brings EU membership to 27 - up from 15 three years ago - and a population of half a billion.

"It was hard, but we arrived at the end of the road. It is the road of our future. It is the road of our joy," Romanian President Traian Basescu said, as tens of thousands of revellers cheered.

"We arrived in Europe. Welcome to Europe," Mr Basescu said on stage in University Square, where he was joined by EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn and government ministers.

Foreign ministers of Germany, Denmark, Austria and Hungary, who were also attending, wished Romanian citizens a happy new year.


Earlier, the EU flag was raised outside the government headquarters in Bucharest to the European anthem, Beethoven's Ode to Joy.

In Sofia, a pyramid of light illuminated the sky, with rays emanating from the city's Orthodox cathedral, its Armenian church, a synagogue, a mosque and another church.

Thousands of people in Battenberg Square cheered as midnight struck. Fireworks lit the sky over the building where the Communist Party once held its headquarters.

In an emotional address to the nation, Bulgarian President Georgi Parvanov called the country's EU entry a "heavenly moment".

"The day we are welcoming - 1 January 2007 - will undoubtedly find its place among the most important dates in our national history.

"But let's make it clear, our future success as a nation depends not on European funds and resources, but on our own work," he said.

'Falling enthusiasm'

The accession of the two new countries comes amid falling enthusiasm in Europe for the bloc's continuing expansion.


The Bulgarian economy still lacks a certain competitiveness
Prime Minister Sergei Stanishev

UK imposes stricter curbs

A recent Eurobarometer poll suggested only 41% of people in the 15 states that were part of the EU before 2004 supported further enlargement.

The two new countries will now be subject to strict monitoring, to ensure they make more progress in the fight against corruption and organised crime.

They face export bans on certain foods, and Bulgaria has been warned that 55 of its aircraft could be grounded unless they reach EU safety standards.

Analysts say there is a risk that EU aid will be mis-spent, or just not taken up because the countries' institutions are too disorganised.

There are also fears that the countries' economies will fail to compete with the rest of the EU's once trade barriers come down.

Immigration fears

Both Bulgaria and Romania are much poorer than the rest of the EU, with GDP per capita of about 33% of the EU average, compared with 50% in Poland.


Some Western European member states fear a flood of new immigrants, but officials in both countries say most of those who wanted to work abroad have already left.

Most of the 15 older EU member states have put in place restrictions on the free movement of workers from the two new members - though Finland and Sweden are two exceptions.

Most of the 10 newer member states, including Poland, say they will erect no barriers.

Bulgaria closed two reactors of its Kozloduy nuclear power station in the hours before joining the EU - one of the last remaining conditions of membership.

Also on 1 January, Slovenia became the first of the 10 states which joined the EU in 2004 to adopt the European currency, the euro.

The existing Slovenian currency, the tolar will remain in dual use with the euro for 14 days.

Germany also takes over from Finland for six months as the country holding the presidency of the European Union.

Anonymous said...

I just love the fact that my ancestors picked the wrong country 100 years ago. They should have just stayed in Poland and weathered out two wars and a few economic burps. Now I am stuck with US dollar based wages and no where to hide. I wonder if I have any ditant relations that will take me in back in the old country?

charlatan said...

i live in scotland. 1% of the population is muslim. even though they are the fastest growing group in a dying country it is laughable to think that they will represent a large proportion (never mind a majority) of the population in 20 years time.

that so many reasonable people are ready to believe absolutely ludicrous demographic projections strikes me as rather worrying. then again people seem to suffer from financial delusions en masse too.....

WhiteTower said...

re: charlatan,

No, approximately 4% of the population of Scotland is Muslim (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_Central_Mosque).

An equivalent Muslim population in the US would be roughly 12 million -- there are curently only about 3-4 million.

The fertility rate for non-Muslim Scots is abyssmal, at about 1.63 children per woman, far below replacement rate. (http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=951)

Yes, Scotland like every other country in western Europe will be Muslim in the next several decades.

Anonymous said...

France is fast headed towards a Muslim majority. Ethnic French women average barely over 1 child. French Muslim women average over 5 children per women. This has been going on the past 30 years. The French are also being flooded with Arab Muslims from their former North African colonies. Ask the French if they are scared. Ask the Belgians and Dutch. Ask the Danish and Australians.

sk said...

DO NOT FEED THE RACIST TROLLS

Anonymous said...

Bye, bye US of A.

Your time is up!!

See you at the bottom of the heap!

Anonymous said...

One of the major goals of the Clinton/Gore push for deficit reduction and budget surplus was so that the US Dollar would be more attractive as a reserve currency against the debut of the
Euro Dollar back in 2000.

Each EuroZone nation is required to maintain a budget surplus,so guess where that leaves us!

To those of you who voted for Clinton twice yet voted for Bush in 2000.....

WHAT THE HELL WERE YOU THINKING???

=================================
You do know how the "Mastrich" treaty budget surplus is achieved dont you? They cut services, shut down industry, increase the unemployment and impoverish their citizens etc.
And all that so that the Euro is popular with international speculators? It has nothing to do with wether say Germany's economy is actually functioning. You should run for higher office.

One of the lowlights of the Clinton Presidency was not the Monica Lewinksy affair but his capitulation in 1995-1996 to the Newt Gingrich faction in passing fascist "welfare reform".

There never was any budget surplus either here or in Europe. What is a fact is that both Western Europe and the United States is in the middle of a terrible "depression" which has been caused by unfettered speculation by private bankers who's rights have superceeded the rights of the nation-state.

Only one solution---"FDR".

Anonymous said...

Yes, that horrible fascist welfare reform that made people go to work instead of sitting at home leeching of taxpayers for 5 decades.

Sorry, asswipe, no free lunch for you and your ilk

Anonymous said...

If this is a depression, I don't want prosperity.

It is so awful out there that just last night I had to pay a poor street urchin $20 to park my car. Then once inside my destination I had to wait 15 minutes at a bar to pay another street urchin - this one wearing $300 jeans $10 for a mixed drink.

-------------------------------------

What is a fact is that both Western Europe and the United States is in the middle of a terrible "depression"

Anonymous said...

Yes, that horrible fascist welfare reform that made people go to work instead of sitting at home leeching of taxpayers for 5 decades.

Sorry, asswipe, no free lunch for you and your ilk
================================
And youre probably one of the populist nitwits screaming over illegal immigration, never considering that Wall Street can use the welfare recipient in the same fashion they use the imported illegal slave labor to drive down wages. With entitlement cut that means more money for Wall Street drug dealers and carpet baggers.

Besides it is fascist to cut health care,food, housing to the poort all while sending them into a non existent "job market" where they end up homeless, drug addicted and what not. "Zieg Heil" Mr. Budget Cutter.

The law of this nation is still "the general welfare".

Put that in your "pot pipe" and smoke it.

Anonymous said...

If this is a depression, I don't want prosperity.

Thats "baby boomer" for "if this LSD and pot is fantasy then I dont want reality".

Anonymous said...

4:42,

I'm 31 dude. Smoked pot in college, never touched anything stronger.

If you think we are in a depression you need some drugs and I mean the prescription kind.

cool hand luke said...

FDR was a socialist idiot who prolonged the great depression and caused great damage to America.

“From the beginning to the end, the New Deal was an attack on economic liberty, telling businesses how much they could produce, how much they had to pay people, how much they could charge, making it illegal to sell certain products (like milk) across state lines, suspending the rights of creditors, breaking up lawful businesses, dispossessing thousands of people to make way for government TVA dams and other projects, denying workers the right to choose whether to join a union, seizing the gold of peaceful citizens, using the tax code to punish some people and favor others, on and on.”Click Here

Anonymous said...

FDR was a socialist idiot who prolonged the great depression and caused great damage to America.
===============================
Do you even know who Sir Conrad Black is? His Hollinger Corp. ran the media attacks on Bill Clinton in an attempt to coup the US Government.

Do you have any idea why the British hate Lincoln, FDR, and JFK?

Have you ever heard of the "American System of Politcal Economy"?

Anonymous said...

I'm 31 dude. Smoked pot in college, never touched anything stronger.

=================================

illiterates like you are not capable of running a real economy.

Enjoy the next 10 years "DUDE".

Anonymous said...

You Americans are just full of shit. Why is 65-70 percent of OUTBOUND containers empty in the LA port? (Check it out!)

Because you are full of hot air, nothing else. You do not produce anything except more debt aka printing more dollars.

Anonymous said...

Ahh yes the European model of 10% unemployment and nighly riots in the Paris slums. Uhmmmm thanks but no thanks.

As for outbound containers...yes 65-70 are empty. We export software that can be downloaded. You export trinkets that need to be shipped.

Anonymous said...

As for outbound containers...yes 65-70 are empty. We export software that can be downloaded. You export trinkets that need to be shipped.
=================================
Stats show that there is close to a quadrillion dollars per year in financial turnover. Less than 1/2 of 1 percent has anything to do with physical goods. Now even a moron can figure out whats going on here. Its all financial speculation with nothing to do with the real economy.
Collapse is coming or I should state is already in progress.

And America does not produce a damn thing anymore. It is a parasitical economy betraying it's proud past as the leading producer society in the world.

charlatan said...

white tower........the page you linked says 50,000 scots are muslim. that is 1% of the population not 4%.

see what i mean about nonsensical demographic projections? i might just as well say new york will be an islamic city in 20 years. what twaddle.....

Anonymous said...

The United States is Insolvent
Sunday, December 17th, 2006

Prepare to be shocked.

The US is insolvent. There is simply no way for our national bills to be paid under current levels of taxation and promised benefits. Our combined federal deficits now total more than 400% of GDP.

That is the conclusion of a recent Treasury/OMB report entitled Financial Report of the United States Government that was quietly slipped out on a Friday (12/15/06), deep in the holiday season, with little fanfare. Sometimes I wonder why the Treasury Department doesn’t just pay somebody to come in at 4:30 am Christmas morning to release the report. Additionally, I’ve yet to read a single account of this report in any of the major news media outlets but that is another matter.

But, hey, I understand. A report is this bad requires all the muffling it can get.

In his accompanying statement to the report, David Walker, Comptroller of the US, warmed up his audience by stating that the GAO had found so many significant material deficiencies in the government’s accounting systems that the GAO was “unable to express an opinion” on the financial statements. Ha ha! He really knows how to play an audience!

In accounting parlance, that’s the same as telling your spouse “Our checkbook is such an out of control mess I can’t tell if we’re broke or rich!” The next time you have an unexplained rash of checking withdrawals from that fishing trip with your buddies, just tell her that you are “unable to express an opinion” and see how that flies. Let us know how it goes!

Then Walker went on to deliver the really bad news:

Despite improvement in both the fiscal year 2006 reported net operating cost and the cash-based budget deficit, the U.S. government’s total reported liabilities, net social insurance commitments, and other fiscal exposures continue to grow and now total approximately $50 trillion, representing approximately four times the Nation’s total output (GDP) in fiscal year 2006, up from about $20 trillion, or two times GDP in fiscal year 2000.

As this long-term fiscal imbalance continues to grow, the retirement of the “baby boom” generation is closer to becoming a reality with the first wave of boomers eligible for early retirement under Social Security in 2008.

Given these and other factors, it seems clear that the nation’s current fiscal path is unsustainable and that tough choices by the President and the Congress are necessary in order to address the nation’s large and growing long-term fiscal imbalance.

Wow! I know David Walker’s been vocal lately about his concern over our economic future but it seems almost impossible to ignore the implications of his statements above. From $20 trillion in fiscal exposures in 2000 to over $50 trillion in only six years? What shall we do for an encore…shoot for $100 trillion?
http://drmss.com/wordpress/?cat=1

WhiteTower said...

The link states the Muslim population of Scotland is 40-50,000, with the population of Scotland being 1.6 million.

That population estimate is incorrect. The actual population is something over 5 million, meaning, you are correct, the Muslim population of Scotland is about exactly 1%.

(Of course, this does not take into account illegal immigrants.)

Yet the "natural population" of Scotland is declining -- there were only 53,000 births in 2003. The population of Scotland has essentially been stable for 30 years, avoiding gross decline only because of -- you guessed it -- immigration from the Muslim world and from eastern Europe.

(Islam is the 3rd largest religion in Scotland.)

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Scotland)

Fortunately, Scotland is not in the same predicament as France (or for that matter, England). But eventually it will become Muslim as well over time.

Anonymous said...

This makes no sense to me. Chinese don't want to raise the yuan/USD---and then threaten to dump a trillion dollars of stuff?
----------

It's called a "bluff".

The day after the US team ran over there, China finally got to purchase 4 nuke plants and "technology transfer".

The US blinked.

Anonymous said...

It's called a "bluff".
++++++++
How did we get in the position where China had enough of an upper hand to issue an empty threat, and win?

Anonymous said...

How did we get in the position where China had enough of an upper hand to issue an empty threat, and win?

Because the U.S. politicians aren't interested in advancing the national interests of the U.S. as a whole. They are interested in advancing the financial interests of their tiny sliver of the CEO class, and in the short term. The Chinese think in generations. The AMericans don't even care about 15 years from now---"my god that's 45 quarters away, who cares."

In the short run, they and their buddies who run them will make lots of money by doing whatever the Chinese want.

And when the Chinese have assimilated all the advanced reactor technology paid for by US R&D, private and public (there was plenty which came through the DOE labs and for Navy uses), and they can make and export better cheaper reactors, then the CEO class won't care. They'll be retired, rich or dead.

"The capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them" --- V.I. Lenin

Anonymous said...

That is what we heard about the Japanese in the 1980s. They thought in years vs Americans who thought in quarters. We were too shortsighted, blah blah blah.

20 years (or 80 quarters) later who's done better? Would a $10,000 investment in the DOW in 1986 be worth more or less than a $10,000 investment in the Nikkei?



-----------------------------------
The Chinese think in generations. The AMericans don't even care about 15 years from now---"my god that's 45 quarters away, who cares."

Anonymous said...

Forget the Nikkei, how about a $100,000 investment in Tokyo real estate vs $100,000 investment in New York real estate.

Take any paper or article on US-Chinese relations. Replace the word China with Japan and you've got a duplicate of what was being written 20 years ago.

Anonymous said...

Japan can boast approximately 35,000 suicides per year since 1998 when LTCM crashed.
I dont imagine them funding the US bubble with the Yen carry trade has hurt their economy much...(thats a joke folks)

Anonymous said...

SK wrote:
"DO NOT FEED THE RACIST TROLLS "

Since when is it "racist" to discuss demographic trends in Europe?

Idiot!

Anonymous said...

it's racist to say we have 20 million illegals in the US who are draining the life out of the country

it's racist to point out the obvious that Europe will me muslim majority in 20-30 years

it's racist to point out that blacks make up 13% of the population but 50% of the prison population

all racist

straw man troll said...

My tact is to call every thing racist until the plot is lost to the bloggers. After that fails I resort to name calling and editing.

Anonymous said...

US unemployment is growing as the population increases faster than job growth. Central America was poor with shanty towns of dirt floor huts roofed with corrugated galvanized sheet metal open to mosquitos and flies. There were dirt roads and one lane bridges, no money for traffic lights, only a few stop or yield signs. Couples were having more children than they can produce for, proud of their lustful instinct, highest population growth rates in the hemisphere. Some were arriving illiterate, unable to read or write Spanish. Children who spoke no English were sitting in English speaking junior high school classes trying to learn. Some school districts had students from dozens of different language groups, English as a second language. They were able to learn how to paint houses and drive roofing nails. Housing inventory declined a little in November. Did the housing market hit bottom in October or is there another lower bottom to come?

Anonymous said...

Would a $10,000 investment in the DOW in 1986 be worth more or less than a $10,000 investment in the Nikkei?


The DOW?? Who the f cares?! Communist China was practically given those nuke plants AND the tech transfer! F your DOW.

Anonymous said...

Start over. Type slowly. You might make some sense the 2nd time around.

"The DOW?? Who the f cares?! Communist China was practically given those nuke plants AND the tech transfer! F your DOW."

WhiteTower said...

Re: anonymous 11:07,

How is it "racist" to point out that Europe will be Islamic in 4-50 years???

This fact will have pronounced effects on world politics and economic growth in that Islamic societies are generally far more aggressive than non-Muslim societies and in that they do not produce science and technology.

Anonymous said...

whitey,

You aren't too good at spotting sarcasm are you.

Anonymous said...

Who you callin' whitey?

Anonymous said...

Yoi! Ya crack'r!

Anonymous said...

I like HP. I like to keep tabs on what the extremists are thinking/doing. If blogs were around back then, who knows, the OKC bombing may have been prevented.

All I can hope for is that the FBI is watching, taking notes and recording IP addresses.

WhiteTower said...

re anonymous 6:00,

I wasn't aware of any "extremists" on HP that the FBI should be "keeping track of."

The extremists that the intelligence agencies are keeping track of are Islamic.

See, there's this phenomenon of Islamic terrorism. Haven't you heard about it?

Anonymous said...

"I like HP. I like to keep tabs on what the extremists are thinking/doing. If blogs were around back then, who knows, the OKC bombing may have been prevented."

And who in this forum has threatened to blow up buildings or people?