December 30, 2006

HousingPanic Stupid Question of the Day


Bubble Sitters and Bitter Renters - aren't you feeling extreme pressure to buy?

You know, do the nesting thing, settle down, put a roof over your head, live the American Dream, and take advantage of real estate - the 'can't miss' investment of your life?

202 comments:

1 – 200 of 202   Newer›   Newest»
sk said...

We have about 30% equity in the home. The conversation between me and "She Who Must be Obeyed" ( SWMBO)(attribution to Mortimer - Rumpole of the Bailey) goes something like:

Me: This housing bust. Its going to get pretty bad. We should consider selling and renting at some point.

SWMBO: We are not renting.

Me: Think about it at least. There are some probable market drops where it great sense and lots of money to sell and rent.

SWMBO: You said probable. You are not sure ?

Me: I'm sure it will drop. I don't how much and when; Hell in some scenarios they may even go up.

SWMBO: Go up ?

Me: Yeah, if we get inflation - they'll go up. And with our fixed rate mortgage LOAN we make money then.

SWMBO: So, let me get this straight: you don't know how much it will drop, when it will drop, you aren't even sure it will drop, they may go UP you said AND we might even make money.

Me: Its not quite like that. It WILL drop - in the next 1 year for sure - But after that - it all depends on what the bastards at the Fed do - and they aren't telling me.

SWMBO: Well, lets wait till we know what the Feds will do.

ME: It might be too late. I can tell what is probable to occur though.

SWMBO: I can tell you this for CERTAIN. We aren't renting.

So I draw up my hedging plans and move on with out lives. Till the data picture clears up more. Then I'll be on the selling warpath again.

-K

Anonymous said...

Oh yea, all the ones that aren't in debt to our eyeballs are living in a cardboard box under a freeway overpass somewhere. Right.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

Bake McBride said...

I'll start making offers in 2007.....I live in NYC and have a great deal, but with a child on the way starting to consider the burb move (much to my regret)

Renting a bigger place in NYC with all the feature I want (24hr doorman....)will run $3,200 -$3,600 per month.

I have enough in my house fund to put 35-45% down on a burb home about 30 minutes from the city.....so the payments will be close (lifestyle is another story).

Will watch the RE market very closely for the next 6 months and then decide if it's time

Anonymous said...

Keith,

You need a new catagory, "Housing Bubble Refugee". I'll let you define the scope, but this is why I feel like a Housing Bubble Refugee:

I bought a condo pre-bubble in Metro DC because the math said buy is better than rent (purchases a 2bd 2 bh 1300 sq ft w/ off street parking condo 110k for ~1k/month including condo fee). Rent for the same unit was 1200-1400/month. I was new to DC & the paradigm was not to buy condos due to the late 80's early 90's bust. My agent advised against it and my new co-workers thought to warn me but never articulated it to me.

Bubble shot the price of my place up to ~300k. People where in disbelief at these prices considering the past stagnation of condos. I got a job offer in another city, where housing was cheaper. I sold for 295k in the fall of 04. Price shot up to 350k in the spring/summer of 05. The new city was a crime infested $h!thole, the agents lied to me, the developer screwed me and my new employers were for the most part a$$holes. The home I bought while reasonable for Metro DC was overpriced and "exclusive" for Wilmington Delawhere (aka $h!thole). 385k for a 2 bed 2.5 bath 2200 sq ft 2 car garage brand new riverfront luxury townhome with tons of high end interior finishings, but which was really a luxury ghetto townhome.

For 6 months I tried to sell the place at FMV of 400-420k. But now suddenly these hot new properties were the homes that nobody wanted. I finally caved when I took a new job out of town, selling it at a firesale price of 350k (note the irony that it sold for what my DC condo went for at the height of the bubble). Add in everything else in transaction costs and I'm out 80-90k between the two transactions (65k+ in the luxury ghetto TH sale).

I did pay off all my debts & I have about 60-70k left from the condo sale, but even with that amount of cash in metro DC, outside of condos and small/old THs, I am frozen out of the market right now. Plus to buy them now is to buy an asset that is in a valuation free fall. So I ran the numbers and its better to rent and buy my time, sell off my possessions that are in storage because I have no room in my apartment. Do not spend excess funds on anything, but conserve them for a downpayment and wait for clear evidence of a bottom.

I am better off than most because I did what had to be done to avoid paying two payments for housing or renting my home for less than my carrying costs while being a long distance landlord. Plus my credit rating is safe from the risk of foreclosure if something was to go awry. However, there will be many more refugees in worse shape than me due to toxic mortgages & foreclosures and/or the making of double housing payments. One co-worker is still dealing with the hassle of renting her old place in from the last time the bubble burst up in New Haven, CONN. She says in the long run I did the right thing, but that others will not be so lucky because they will be like her and wait too long before the decide to sell and/or cut the price to what it takes to move the unit w/o having to bring money to the table.

David in JAX said...

No. No pressure at all. I'm enjoying the price declines and know that I did the right thing by selling. I consider it a very slow and informed investigation into what I will buy when the time is right.

LauraVella said...

No! Since 2004 when we sold our house, and are now renting, I have never felt presure to buy. Quite the contray- I feel frustrated we can't afford to buy.

Buying a house right now is not a fair trade-off for the burden it brings on. When houses cost 2 times salary, that's when it time to buy. I have no problem ignoring all the chatter/ presure from RE media, friends or family - I simply don't feel guilty about buying against better judgement.

I remind my husband that he's lucky to have a wife like me. I would never dream of putting presure on him to "buy me my dream house" thats not what its about to me. Don't get me wrong, I am very tradtional and enjoy decorating and re-modeling, its so much fun for me, but not to the tune of eating top ramen on granite counter tops - thats just not my life-long dream.

First time poster said...

Of course I'm under pressure. Why do you think I read this blog almost every day? Waiting for the day until psycology shift is such that everyone doesn't think I'm a moron for not buying. I get asked so many times I've started thinking about just telling people that I'm broke and have crappy credit due to a series of poor investments in fishstick factories.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Dear Keith,

There are rumors on the net that the Vicious Sock Puppets and trolls are from here and are getting paid to disrupt the most popular blogs.

http://www.netvocates.com/

The John McCain anti blogger bill will fix things, don’t worry about it. (sarcasm switch off)

Just be glad you are off shore, so you and HP will be immune.

iw

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

crappy credit due to a series of poor investments
+++++++++++
No real barrier there to purchasing a home. (:
You can still get a mortgage.

buzz saw said...

Don't worry FMW, it will be the rethug grifters forced to live offshore in the coming years. Todo el Poder al Pueblo!
(All Power to the People!)

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

(:

Anonymous said...

Renting a bigger place in NYC with all the feature I want (24hr doorman....)will run $3,200 -$3,600 per month.

my god!

buzz kill said...

Top one hundred cities in foreclosure rates here.

Anonymous said...

rethug grifters ???????
no wiki link.

Anonymous said...

Quite the contray- I feel frustrated we can't afford to buy.


same here.

GrandInquisitor said...

Yup, been living with that pressure for years. It was a really unpopular decision 3-4 years ago when the whole world was going mad for real estate. It was just my wife and I. Why the hell would we need anything more than a 2 bed apt? It's all about show. I know people whose families guilted them into buying a home. Now they are paying 3,000 / month in mortgage payments. They may or may not end up regretting that decision. We'll have to see what 2007 holds. I've learned not to expect justice from the markets. Markets often reward stupid decisions.

stuckinthecity said...

19
Chicago
16,155
180
2.019
3.78


And there is no mumble in the Chicago media....

"Shhhhhh, don't say anything. Don't look behind the curtain."

devestment said...

I will buy what no one wants, while everyone is asleep. It’s hard to loose when you go in the opposite direction of the masses.

Anonymous said...

Nope. I have figured out what kind of house I want and where and it will take a while to locate same. The market has shifted so that when I find what I'm looking for, I'll make an offer that I think fair and if the seller balks, he can keep his house on the market and I'll walk on and wait. I'm not the one under pressure - the seller is. My down payment is in the bank, my current inexpensive rental is a month to month arrangement, I live alone with no kids nor pets and have zero liabilities and a decent job and good credit. I'm in the driver's seat (finally) and I can afford to wait. The pendullum has swung and is swinging back to my favor.

Anonymous said...

"I feel frustrated we can't afford to buy."

ditto for me.

sold my place in march 05 so that i could move closer to work. we were under contract on two places and both fell through. THANK GOD. looking back they would have been the end of us. I was so very close to signing up for the IO loan. When the last house fell through we reassesed our situation and decided to rent. At that time we started a lot of research and found that the market was just about tilting.

Today there is some pressure in that we have a third child on the way and we could use the room. There is always renting a house instead of our current apartment. I do have hopes for 07 to bring us a deal. Regardless if we cannot afford it using conventional loans and 10 to 20 % down then no deal.

A note on affordability:

Mind you we could probably afford a few different places today however the houses are mostly junk. We have a single income house of 150K and comfortably feel that a 400K house is the most we can afford. No need to tell you all what 400K will get you within 10 to 15 miles of NYC in a good school district.

I have seen some very airy fairy ideas on what a 150k income should buy you however none of those proposals factor in the expense of children, their education, retirement, savings and some of the luxury items like vacations and some shopping at whole foods.

Paul E. Math said...

I will admit that I feel frustrated too. It's not that I can't afford to buy anything at all in the Boston area - it's that I can't afford to buy anything decent. And I think that as content as we may be to rent at the moment, we would all prefer to own (in the right circumstances, of course).

I refuse to sign my life away for a piece of crap. And it makes me angry that I would have to sign my life away for the right of ownership that all hard-working people deserve.

Anonymous said...

Luaravella, you're definitely not alone. I can't wait until we can reasonably afford a house, until then it's the waiting game...

Stuck in So Pa said...

We own outright, so no incentive to move/buy/rent anywhere. What is a concern to me is that I could not afford the home that I live in, if I had to buy it TODAY, based on income.

While homes price increases around here have pretty much matched inflation, wages, like every place else, have been stagnate.

It wouldn't be a decision of whether to rent vs. buy. Buying would be out of the question, period. I see the frustration in the younger generation every day and can truly sympathize!

More and more and more of the paycheck going towards house payment, less and less towards living. Sad.

Anonymous said...

To the other Bostonian... what place was worth buying during the past three years. I mean there were condos, with cooking fumes coming from nearby restaurants, going for $500K.

In addition, suburban towns like Medford, Arlington, and Malden, all nice, working middle class towns, became yuppievilles overnight and have lost their character as neighborhood places to live for a family with jobs outside of Fidelity Investments. I think the good olde days for Boston are over.

Metroplexual said...

Not bitter. I owned before and know the hassle of upkeep. I am sitting on a pile of fast depreciating cash. Luckily I am getting 6%. But I see house prices depreciating faster. I am looking to relocate to Phoenix and will buy there in about 2-4 years when no one will looking to buy. At that time RE will be viewed as a bad investment.

Anonymous said...

Is worst over for housing?

Vote: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16381406/

Renter_Undre_Pressure said...

Pressure everyday from my significant other. I am almost caving in for peace of mind; however, I know that my wife will be the first one to complaint. If I buy a house, I won't be able to go out for dinners. Basically, all discretional money will be gone. So, I refuse to buy. Peace of mind for a couple of months ain't worth it.

Anonymous said...

definitely not as much as a couple months ago!

hemorrhoidforhousing said...

No not really, but since I just got a raise bringing my yearly over 80k and my fiance is at a little over 50k we are going to get killed in taxes if we don't buy. The tax system has a built in buy pressure and so we are going to look to buy after we get married in August of 07.

My plan is to let the meltdown keep going and by next fall there will be concessions from sellers which will allow us to buy a house without putting ourselves in an unsustainable financial situation.

My landlord really pissed me off and I'm tired of giving money to the bastard. He feels somehow as his "tennant" I'm beholden to him.......F*ck you buddy! This is the pride part of owning I want to have.....no asking to get things done....I just get it done myself.

The market hit its peak in July of 05 and is correcting as we speak. The house two doors down has been for sale for 2 months and even with a price reduction is just sitting there. Until sellers go through another dead season reality won't set in. That's when I plan on using my side-arm throw and start low-balling the greedy bastards.

Anonymous said...

That makes no sense. You owned a home. You sold it. Now you are frustrated you can't afford to buy?
--------------------------------------
LauraVella said...

No! Since 2004 when we sold our house, and are now renting, I have never felt presure to buy. Quite the contray- I feel frustrated we can't afford to buy.

Anonymous said...

So Paul, assuming your income tripled overnight and you could afford, would you?

------------------------------------
I will admit that I feel frustrated too. It's not that I can't afford to buy anything at all in the Boston area - it's that I can't afford to buy anything decent

Anonymous said...

As long as I can rent the same house for half the price of ownership, no, no pressure to buy.

bozonian said...

Doesn't your works have 401k? You can put 15k into it per year and that comes right off your income.

Each of you can put 15k for a total of 30k off the top.

mulescent said...

I don't feel pressured to buy, but I do feel sad that I can't. I've been in graduate school in San Diego, so buying was pretty much impossible. I'm about to graduate and move to Seattle - buying is a possibility. I'd have to be totally stupid to buy there now, especially given that i'll be moving again within five years.

Housing, as an asset class, is fundamentally different than stocks or bonds or whatever. Owning a house has tangible, real benefits over renting. I'm tired of rental white/brown walls, crappy carpet and asshole landlords. I'd like to be able to make my living space my own. Other than during a bubble, owning a house is a great deal (financially and otherwise). So i'm sad and a bit angry that the housing bubble has delayed my ability to enjoy the benefits of owning. However, i'm not as sad as my friends who bought condos in San Diego in 05-06.

Anonymous said...

Another New Yorker here. Classic "Rent-Poor" bitter family of 3. With an annual HHI of about $150,000 and another $150,000 in cash and investments we still can not afford to buy anything worthwhile in the area. I figure around '08 when things get really bad we should be able to finally take advantage of one of these greedy f-ing developers and snap up a "luxury" property that cost $800,000 in '05. Or pick out a nice foreclosure.

Anonymous said...

Did anyone fall for that NAR headfake btw?

Anonymous said...

Spin. Spin. Spin.

Sales are up. Prices are up. Face it fucknuts, your time in the sun has come and gone.

You will be renting your shithole apartments forever.

Anonymous said...

Foreclosures are up, inventory is up at all time highs, year over year prices are way down.
Face it, FBs, your nightmare has begun.

Anonymous said...

Hey, Kieth, how about a thread that deals just with derivatives.
What are they, how do they work.
Is the derivatives market a disaster waiting to happen, taking our quality of life with it, or is it something benign and quirky to make rich people richer and nothing sinister about it, like the carry trade?
Your blog, your call.

Anonymous said...

Hey, Kieth, how about a thread that deals just with derivatives.
What are they, how do they work.
Is the derivatives market a disaster waiting to happen, taking our quality of life with it, or is it something benign and quirky to make rich people richer and nothing sinister about it, like the carry trade?
Your blog, your call.

================================
I dont mean to speak for Keith but you can hardly seperate the "yen carry trade" from derivatives. There is nothing benign about the carry trade.
Derivatives are essentially side bets. They were used by Greenspan in 1987 to bail out the bankrupt system after the October 1987 crash. The entire world's banking system is awash in derivatives. And that means without question the current world financial system is bankrupt thousands of times over. If you'll notice leading banks never list their derivative holdings on their balance sheet, everything is "off balance sheet". There is no telling just what the current level of derivatives holdings are. There could be as much as $700 trillion world wide. 20-25 times the worlds GDP.
The only answer is to put the current system through government supervised bankruptcy reorganization and write off all the derivatives. Let the Wall Street bankers start a bloody coup.
But thats the answer.

Uncertain Buyer said...

Sold two months ago, due to a job transfer. I noticed that things were slower and listings were up.

I started paying closer attention to the US housing market and decided that Canada is just starting to come into a decline.

I will be renting in my new town, until I feel it is a good time to buy back in.

Anonymous said...

You sounds like the hysterical MSM soundd last year regarding gas prices. Remember the headlines?

"GAS AT ALL TIME HIGH"
"RECORD GAS PRICES"

And the predictions, remember them? Tourism would collapse because nobody would drive anymore. Airlines would die off. Families would have to decide between food and gas. The economy would go into recession.

All of it was wrong.

What the MSM didn't mention was that $3 gas in 2005 was adjusted for inflation the same price as in 1984.

When you say "record foreclosures" or "record inventory" you're doing the same thing. 1000 foreclosures in a population of 300 million is not the same as a 1000 foreclosures ina population of 250 million of 1990. 10,000 homes for sale in a city of 4 million in 2006 is not the same as 10,000 homes for sale in the same city of 3 million in 1990.

But hey that's cool, the "record high" sounds a lot better than "adjusted for population and monetary inflation 62% of record high"
--------------------------------------
Foreclosures are up, inventory is up at all time highs, year over year prices are way down.
Face it, FBs, your nightmare has begun.

BuyerWillEPB said...

The hysterical part is how rents are 1/3 - 1/2 of what the Loanowners are paying for the same roof over their heads.

All these realtor trolls can't spin that away. But of course they will try because they NEED those next Greater Fools to bail them out.

Chip said...

I am fortunate to be able to live anywhere I like, assuming I can afford my housing - IOW no job location issues. Cashed out summer 2005 and began renting. Intended to rent for one year, but it is such a good deal we're now thinking about a third year. We've been looking at houses ever since, but with prices still way too sticky and with an easy, comfortable lifestyle in a rental, we feel zero pressure to buy. Not the same as zero desire, but close enough, when we consider the savings.

Anonymous said...

what's really funny is how you bitter renters will be 60 and renting a 1 bedroom basement apartment for $3000 while I will be making my final $1500 mortgage payment on a 5 bedroom home.

Then when you're 70 and rent is at $4000 I will be paying $0 and golfing every day. You will be paying $4000 for the 1 bedroom and still have to work at McDonald's to pay for it.

That will be HIGH-larious.

Anonymous said...

Record housing sales

Saturday, December 30, 2006

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By Jason M. Reynolds
Staff Writer

Local home sales from January through late December have surpassed all of 2005's totals, bucking the national real estate slump and giving the Tennessee Valley another record year, records show.

"A stable economy, low unemployment and competitive interest rates will make a recipe for a strong 2007," said Jason Farmer, incoming president of the Chattanooga Association of Realtors and owner of ReMax Renaissance Realtors. "I think the public will see a strong year for home sales."

Chattanooga-area Realtors through mid-December 2006 reported selling 8,072 houses, a 1.5-percent gain over 2005's total of 7,955 houses sold.

Across the country, existing-house sales are projected to reach 6.47 million, the third best year in history but an 8.6 percent decline from 2005, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales of new homes nationally this year are expected to drop 17.7 percent to 1.06 million.

Baby boomers buying smaller homes and people moving to the Chattanooga area from other states helped account for strong local sales, Realtors say. Nationally, buyer confidence has been low but should return and create strong sales for the first quarter of 2007, according to the National Association of Realtors. Home prices in markets such as California and Florida have grown at unsustainable double-digit rates for several years, experts said.

Mr. Farmer said Chattanooga is a conservative housing market with a growth rate between 3 percent and 7 percent, and so it will have stable growth in sales and prices.

Thirty-year, fixed-rate mortgages earlier this month averaged 6.13 percent, according to mortgage holder Freddie Mac, down slightly from 6.26 percent a year ago. Interest rates were in the double digits in the 1970s, so rates today are historic lows, according to Realtors.

Locally, new-home sales have slowed "some," but not significantly, said Thom Carmichael, 2007 president of the Home Builders Association of Southern Tennessee.

The Chattanooga area has competitive home prices, said Carolyn Eslinger with Realty Executives of Chattanooga.

"I feel our prices have remained relatively stable, while you see home prices escalating in other areas," Ms. Eslinger said. "Our affordability left the market open for opportunities."

ATTRACTING BUYERS

The median Chattanooga-area home price to date in 2006 is $136,000, a 3.4 percent gain from $131,500 last year, local Realtors report. The national median sales price in October, the latest data available, was $221,000, a 3.5 percent drop from a year ago. The median is the price at which half the houses sold for more and half sold for less.

Brian Kelly, president of Prudential RealtyCenter, said another reason the Tennessee Valley is outperforming the national market is the area's moderate weather drawing retirees from the North and from Florida. And the region has served as a refuge for hurricane-weary coastal residents, some of whom have chosen to stay here, he said. Chattanooga also is a popular place for people to buy second homes for vacations.

"People choose to live here because it's a wonderful place to live with a high quality of life," Mr. Kelly said.

Ernie Landry said he and his wife Kathy moved to Trojan Run in Soddy-Daisy after Hurricane Katrina slammed into Louisiana on Aug. 29, 2005.

Mr. Landry said his wife arrived in Chattanooga to stay with a cousin two days after the storm hit, while he stayed a month longer to repair their St. Tammany Parish home.

"My wife liked the Chattanooga area, so we decided to move up here," Mr. Landry said.

The Landrys chose to live in the Trojan Run subdivision because of its mountain views, an amenity Louisiana lacked, he said.

Russ Davis said he and his wife Martha are splitting their time between their old home on the Florida Gulf Coast and a lakeside house they bought in October in Graysville, Tenn. Mr. Davis said he was familiar with the area because his mother is from Tennessee.

"I don't like Florida near as much as I do here, and I'm not sure I won't sell my Florida house and stay here year-round," Mr. Davis said.

charlatan said...

read a book recently about the convoulted process involved in buying a house here in scotland. that made me even happier to wait for a good while....

foxwoodlief said...

Hemoroidforhousing you've expressed the dilema of renting versus owning and income versus taxes. I would say tht you and your fiance are typical fo many middle income Americans...so much for every American only earns $30,000 a year and is locked out. Your income is more typical of most the people I know.

I understand about taxes. We sold our house to relocate to Austin in March 2005. Our house was suppose to be finished no later than November 1st and we anticipated some tax savings due to our property taxes, interest deductions from both homes even though we would rent for six months. Our rent was $150 a month more than our mortgage with no deductions for those payments! Well we didn't get to close and move until May 2006 so we ended up renting for almos 18 months instead of owning! Yes, we paid plenty in taxes as a result. No deductions for 2005...our three months taxes, interest on the house we sold wasn't enough to file long form, no kids, so we paid 38% in Fed income tax, then SSI, then Medicare then State income tax plus we paid $1750 a month to rent for 18 months for a townhouse that was half the size of our house with eight year old carpet.

Looking back I should have stayed in my house until my Austin house was completed and then rented my house out and kept it since my mortgage was 1/3 of the current value and because of the quality and location could easily have rented it since my payments were 1/2 of what the person who bought my house were since I bought pre-bubble (as did my buyer...prices didn't skyrocket 40% until summer of the year I sold).

Then I wouldn't have had to deal with the sleaze, the fights, the lack of privacy that came from renting in an upscale community of professionals. I can imagine what life would be like renting in a typical apartment complex with lower income folk or young people (under 35).

How much is your own place worth in peace of mind and freedom?

Anonymous said...

Decline in N.Ky. home sales eases in November
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Post staff reporter

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After two months of dramatic, double-digit declines, home sales bounced back somewhat in November, falling by less than three percent when compared with November of last year.

The Northern Kentucky Association of Realtors said 494 homes with an average sales price of $158,910 were sold last month compared with 507 homes that changed owners in November of 2005.

The average sale price a year ago was $151,507, about 5 percent less than the average price that was paid last month.

Anonymous said...

Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald
Published: Saturday, December 30, 2006

In the eight years Robyn Moser has been a realtor in Calgary, nothing compares to what she witnessed and experienced in 2006.

"It's been a fairly unique year and not typical of the Calgary real estate market from my experience. It's been fun, though, in regards to just the challenges that have come up in the real estate market," says Moser with Maxwell South Star Realty.

"I would say in the first six months of the year the market peaked in May and then it slowly did a correction in June, July, August, September, October, November.

"But what we found at the end of November and in December, sales increased quite a bit."

Moser says buyers "had to be on the ball" early in the year.

"They had to know the house and be willing to move as soon as they were ready. There was a lot of what I would consider risk-taking that buyers did, but they did it because they had no choice," she explains.

Offers with no conditions, for example.

The market was also characterized by bidding wars on hot properties with offers much higher than list prices.

Average house prices in Calgary rose at a fast and furious pace, with eye-popping increases compared to the previous year.

At the end of December 2005, the average combined residential MLS property sold for $273,716. That rose to a high of $374,067 in October 2006 and dropped to $360,674 in November, according to the latest Calgary Real Estate Board statistics.

While experts don't believe the real estate market will experience those same phenomenal increases in 2007, they do forecast healthy increases in average prices. For example, the 2007 Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast predicts the average price of a Calgary home will rise by 10.1 per cent in 2007, compared to the national average of 6.5 per cent.

"The huge leap in Alberta house prices during 2006, and particularly those experienced in Calgary, was simply unsustainable for any extended length of time," said Phil Soper, president and chief executive of Royal LePage Real Estate Services.

"In a single year, Calgarians moved from enjoying some of the most affordable housing in metropolitan Canada to membership in the most costly club, previously the exclusive domain of Toronto and Vancouver. Those stratospheric price increases should return to earth in 2007."

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, in a housing outlook report in the fall, said an "anticipated higher level of listings and modestly weaker demand should moderate price growth moving forward." It forecasts average price growth to ease to about nine per cent in 2007.

It also says existing home sales are expected to remain at high levels in 2007, reaching about 30,500 -- the third best on record.

Richard Corriveau, regional economist for the Prairies and Territories for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation in Calgary, says there are not enough superlatives to describe Calgary's resale market in 2006.

"It was certainly fantastic, record-breaking," says Corriveau. "What's interesting is that when we saw a lower level of active listings, that's when we saw the strongest gains in sales, whereas when more active listings came on stream, more selection to prospective buyers, that's when sales actually began to taper off.

Anonymous said...

Posted on Wed, Dec. 27, 2006
By Vinnee Tong
Associated Press

NEW YORK - Prices of single-family homes across the nation rose in October at the slowest rate in almost a decade, a housing index released yesterday by Standard & Poor's showed.

The S&P/Case-Shiller composite index showed a 2.4 percent year-over-year increase in the price of a single-family home based on prices of existing homes in 10 metropolitan markets. Prices grew 2.9 percent for a 20-city composite index.

Anonymous said...

Saturday, December 30, 2006 — Time: 8:05:03 PM EST

By The Tribune Chronicle

This area’s house prices are projected to lead the Midwest region in price gains over the next two years, the Home Builders/Remodelers Association of Mahoning Valley said Thursday, citing a Fortune magazine report.

The Warren-Youngstown metro area should see prices rise 3.8 percent in 2007 and 3.6 percent in 2008, according to the Fortune study that was done by Moody’s Economy.com and real estate valuation firm Fiserv Lending Solutions. The gains from a median house price of $79,190 ranks the area 18th nationally in the study.

The report comes as rising mortgage rates and excess supply of housing have raised worries about the real estate market, one of the leading drivers of the economy. But the home builders top official said the concerns create opportunities.

Anonymous said...

22nd December 2006 16:39

Experts are predicting that the UK housing market will show continued signs of stability in 2007, despite widespread fears of a crash among many consumers.

Mike Ratcliffe, chief executive of Wolsey Securities, anticipates a period of stability in the coming year, arguing that supply will keep pace with demand.

Mr Ratcliffe maintains that house prices will remain steady throughout most of the UK, highlighting London as an exception where house price inflation may continue apace.

"2007 will see the market in equilibrium, with supply just about keeping pace with demand," he states.

"What we will see is the continuing trend for larger housebuilders to look at smaller plots of land, more usually the domain of the smaller developers, as they struggle to find land, particularly in the south of England."

Mr Ratcliffe proposes that smaller housebuilders will find themselves under pressure to compete with their larger peers but believes that overall supply will not suffer.

This outlook is at odds with recent research from Thomas Charles suggesting that almost a quarter or Brits fear a housing market crash within 18 months.

Anonymous said...

CANADA'S PRICES RISE 16% IN 2006

TORONTO, Dec. 14 /CNW/ - Canada's resale housing market will finish the year on strong and stable footing as average house prices increased, year-over-year, in almost all markets examined. This healthy activity is expected to continue into 2007. Throughout 2006, regional variances were evident, with substantial double-digit gains reported in the West, while
Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada reported more modest gains, according to a
year-end report released today by Royal LePage Real Estate Services.

Of the 83 markets examined across the country, the average price of a
standard condominium experienced the greatest appreciation rising by 16.8 per cent to $218,015, followed by a detached bungalow, which increased by 16.2 per cent to $304,271, and a standard two-storey property, which rose by 13.4 per
cent to $366,839, year-over-year.
Canada's healthy and stable fourth quarter real estate market is
bolstered by the combination of solid economic fundamentals including low
unemployment rates across the country, higher incomes, and strong consumer
confidence. Moderate interest rates have also led to an increase in market
activity over the past several months, as new buyers continued to enter the
real estate market.

Anonymous said...

can the prices go higher, when higher evaluations mean higher tAXES, MEAN HIGHER FOOD PRICES,MEAN HIGHER RENTS, meaning inflation, or dollar devaluations, mean higher prices, broken, mean? bust?

Shakster said...

I'm giddy mostly.I know of a whole town that I despise that is about to Implode.They are in major denial,and are at the moment looking for scapegoats.So many houses are sitting,and nobody will even rent one.Their fingers are pointed at anyone questioning the Quality of the homes.Just cant face the fact that prices are too high,the buyers have all bought already,most are busy dealing with their own problems,and employment in construction is slowing.They are very stubborn,and refuse to drop prices.Thats good for the smart HPer,cuz the slingshot to the downside at bank auctions will be sweet.

Anonymous said...

To the braggart "bitter owners".

In New York, we can get a lot more for our rental dollar. About double the quality we could as owners. That is a FACT. Go on Corcoran.com and prove me wrong.

As far as being old and renting - if I have to rent when I'm old because pricing for some reason stays this way (which it will not) so be it. I will have a lovely apartment and comfortable lifestlye - after you've lived 30 years with an albatross of a mortgage.

You can have it. We'll wait.

Anonymous said...

At 3% yearly increase in rents over 30 years your $3000 rental will be $7281.

My albatross of a mortgage will still be $1500.

In year 31 your rent will be $7500. My mortgage payment will be $0.

See you in 2036.

buyerwillepb said...

Sorry Anon above, your payment won't be zero. You will still be paying the property taxes, insurance, maintenance, etc.

Nice try for the drama though, dumbass!

Anonymous said...

$7500 a month taxes and insurance......sure thing renty, sure thing.

Anonymous said...

Renty,

One more thing. In 2050 or whenever I croak, I will have a home to leave my kids. By then using the 3% appreciation per year rule the home will be worth $2M.

What will you have to leave?

Dumbass!

demon_the_terrible said...

Living in upstate NY, bought a townhouse to live in and a condo to rent with positive cash flow. Both are on 15-year 4.75% fixed mortgages, ending in 12 years.

To everyone predicting doom - anything is possible, but depends on what you bought and where. Don't expect an overnight 20%+ drop though, except for the most speculative markets (NYC, Florida, CA, DC, etc.)

To everyone bragging about RE accomplishments - better be sure supply vs. demand, and cost of owning vs. renting makes sense for what you bought. Mine do, so even if prices drop, I'll still have positive cash flow.

Long-term, I have no doubt that investing in real estate is a good thing. Don't become a professional renter, but don't just jump into real estate without knowing the fundamentals.

Anonymous said...

I hope your wife takes your 560K condo in the divorce, and you die alone.

buyerwillepb said...

Oh, I WILL have plenty of real estate to leave the kids. I'll just get it for half price in a few years from now.

This buyer will entertain prices below what you paid for it. WAY BELOW.

While I wait, you and all the other realtwhores will go bankrupt and be turnin' tricks to keep the Lexus running.

HAHAHA! Dumbass realtor!

Anonymous said...

In 3o years the renter will have the money saved from not making a downpayment - it that's invested in a S&P index fund, that could grow to quite a handsome sum to be left as a legacy. It's just another form of equity - instead of a house, the renter can have a substantial liquid nest egg in the form of a stock portfolio. Not bad.

Anonymous said...

I think the reason that "homeownership" works in many cases (not bought in bubble times) was that it forced savings, and the equity was hard to extract.

Stocks could easily be sold and blown on crap instead of really letting compounding work.

It was psychological finance theory---i.e. the pretty obvious observation that "people are greedy, dumb and short-sighted".

But, when you have massive HELOCs let you eat up the saved equity the situation may be very different.

There will be again a time to buy.

Housing bears aren't necessarily housing PermaBears.

But if there's no nominal increase for 7 years---not unreasonable, how much would you make from stocks and bonds in that time? You might just about double your money.

Anonymous said...

This site must really be frustrating you troll realtors. You wouldn't be here if things were so 'great' as you say they are. On a positive note, Burger World's hiring. LOL

LauraVella said...

Thread Troll said: "what's really funny is how you bitter renters will be 60 and renting a 1 bedroom basement apartment for $3000 while I will be making my final $1500 mortgage payment on a 5 bedroom home".


Whats really funny: Renters are living like kings, renting for half OF what it costs to own. In 3-4 years renters will pay cash for their houses.

Meanwhile...the RE Troll takes 30+ years to pay off his refi-ededed mortgage.

Patch Tuesday said...

Rent versus own? Get real, every time that you feel sorry for yourself just look at these poor slobs:

Look at this poor bastard.

And people really should get smarter about that tax myth crap. Yep, spending a dollar to save .28 cents is pretty bright...

Anonymous said...

"In 3o years the renter will have the money saved from not making a downpayment."

Thanks for that. To say nothing of the rather hefty sum of money which is being sent straight to the investment account EVERY MONTH. Not everyone disposes of their disposable income. Which has, incidentally been turning roughly 7% annually since the apartment was sold 2 years ago.

If I put the difference between my rental and the nearest quality "owner" into my investment account - even at 5% annually over the lifetime of the investment puts me in a better position than Mr. Bitter Owner. The other key difference is this:

When things change significantly enough - i.e. when it's cheaper to own than rent again, this rather large investment can be put into the property of choice, leaving monthly overhead costs significantly lower, and a 30-year mortgage unnecessary.

You won't find anyone here who wouldn't want to own a home. We just don't want to own them on any old terms. We're not desperate, far from it.

Remember, in New York it has historically been cheaper to rent than own. In fact even the rich rent here. But only about 10 years ago did the cost of renting get out of line with ownership costs. Now, the pendulum has swung back. As I said, go on Corcoran and show me otherwise.

Anonymous said...

Patch Tuesday:

Somebody must have tipped off that mathemetician on that other website you posted a link to...rent has been raised and the property pulled. Although I'm sure we could find it listed elsewhere.

Patch Tuesday said...

But you notice it's still for rent right? Which it has been for over 100 days now.

And then: Active ML#: SM6133141 List Price: $499,000 with DOMM/DOMP: 142/142

Was replaced with: Status: WITHDRN ML#: SM6133141 List Price: $510,000

I expect to see it with a new mls number soon...

demon_the_terrible said...

It's not always more expensive to own than rent. In fact, I only buy what I can rent out for positive cash flow.

The rental market is not as liquid as the real estate market, and I only see it going up in my area. A bunch of developers built new large rentals they have to rent for a LOT of money just to break even. There's still a shortage of cheap housing, and this is where I come in.

As foreclosures go up in my area, I plan to keep buying.

Why do so many of you have a problem with people owning real estate? There are declines/recessions in every market, but long-term you'll come out ahead. Same for stocks - if you keep predicting doom instead of investing, you may end up with a mattress full of devaluated currency.

Anonymous said...

Like my friend who bought his house for $610,000 last year. Zillow comps at $631,782, but he inexplicably listed it at $725,000!!!!

Oh wait, not inexplicably. His neighbor, the realtwhore who sold it to them at the TOP 'O the market is trying to pretend that it's accrued value!! Additionally, a propertyshark.com search showed that this same realtor SOLD HIS HOUSE LAST YEAR.

Not surprisingly, they dropped the price to $699,000 and eventually pulled it completely after 6 weeks of no-show open houses.

Despite my deep yearning to bitch-slap both my friend and his realtWHORE buddy, I just can't bring myself to do it. Although if I get a moment aside with the Realtor...

Anonymous said...

What I learned on HP today:

1. I don't believe housing will crash 60%, therefore I am a troll.

2. Hyperinflation is here yet rents are the same as in 2000.

3. In this same hyperinflation situtation, renting is a better deal than a fixed mortgage.

4. Renters' rent will stay the same for the next 30 years. House prices will plummet. All this while experiencing hyperinflation and a worthless dollar.

Patch Tuesday said...

If you want to amuse yourself go out to realty times at Real Estate Clowns and view the real estate agents saying how there hasn't been any appreciation in your market, but yet they keep listing houses at ever higher prices...

Anonymous said...

Unfortunately there are very few of these moron Realtors reporting on local market conditions. Instead we have this nuggest of Realty Wisdom:

"Note: A strong Buyer's Market does not necessarily mean that it is not a good time to sell your home. Likewise, a strong Seller's Market does not necessarily mean it is a bad time to buy a home."

In other words, the Realtor's Paradox: It's always a GREAT time to buy OR sell a home!

Anonymous said...

They also cut and pasted Lereah's "looks like we've hit bottom again! Up Up and away!" in basically all of the East Coast markets I looked in. You have to look at Arizona to find idiots like Chris Dunham who say:

"The bubble has not bursted. The Market has a way of correcting itself. Today's market is great for Buyers and Sellers. It all comes down to pricing! Sellers: If your home is priced right, no need to keep reducing the price until it sells. You just have to be patient."

Buyers: What a great time for you. Most sellers are willing to pay some of your closing costs and come off the price."

And then when you look at the Current Market it is SQUARELY on "Buyer's Market" and the price conditions are dead neutral.

Odd. How can the market be awesome for everyone?

Anonymous said...

A simple example:

Buy a house for $500,000 today with $0 down or rent the same house for 2/3 the cost.

OWNING:
Mortgage payment: $3000 constant for 30 years at 6% fixed

- Tax/Insurance $ 500 a month
- Tax deduction ($500) a month
- Maintenance $200 month
3% increase a year

NET COST: Over 30 years $1.19M
HOME VALUE in 30 years at 6.4% appreciation: $3.2M. Why 6.4%? That is the average yearly appreciation nationally from 1963 to 2000.

RENT:
Rent the same house for $2000 a month. Rent increases 3% a year. Invest difference between rent/own at 5% (pre-tax) return.

30 YEARS OF RENT: $1.14M
INVESTED AMOUNT (after tex) $3.1M

So after 30 years a renter and owner would have paid almost the exact amount in rent or PIT/maintenance and would more or less have the same value as the owner only in cash.

However in year 31 the owner is no longer paying mortgage. Still paying tax and maintenance which is increasing 3% a year. The renter's rent is still increasing 3% a year.

Years 31-40 the renter will pay $724,000 in rent. The owner will pay $72,400 in maintenance and taxes. The home will also have appreciated at 6.4% a year to $5.95M. The renter will be losing his investment as he has to make up the difference in rent/mortgage. The investment will be at $3.1M still as the interest made would be offset by the additional cost the onwer doesn't have.

Anonymous said...

To the last anonymous, I doubt today's over inflated homes will appreciate at the 6.4% average from the past. Wages will be stagnate or rise very slowly and other home ownership costs will go up. I think from here forward real estate will be lucky to appreciate at 2-3% per year....and that is after it stays flat the next 5 years to take some of the air out of the bubble.

Wow, that guy bragging about his $1500 mortgage vs $7000 rent is clueless. The opposite is true. In my market you can rent a house for $2000 that is being marketed for sale for $600,000. You can take the difference and invest it at 6-9%. No maintenance, no taxes, nada.

And he is going to leave his house to his kids in 30 years? They will probably be living elsewhere and be forced to sell for whatever a family who needs a house in 30 years can afford to pay.

Anonymous said...

Also do not forget that many people of prime home buying age have way more debt than those of 10 years ago. This trend will most likely continue. With flat wages, higher property taxes, higher energy prices, and high debt service payments, the families of tomorrow will have less money to afford housing.

Homeowners thinking that their homes will appreciate at a certain rate for the next 30 years at which time they can sell might very well find out that the home buyers of tomorrow will be tapped out.

A better 30 year investment in real estate would be affordable housing for the young families down the road. Tract housing, affordable condos, townhouses sound like better long term bets than holding a single family house for the next 30 years hoping enough young people will be able to afford to buy them then.

Patch Tuesday said...

Hey anon, the NY Times says maintenance costs for owning are 1% of purchase price, which would be double your figures...

Patch Tuesday said...

Also anon, can you tell us the appreciation from 1963 to 2000? And then from 2001 to 2006? I'm sure you'd rather not...

buyerwillepb said...

An even simpler example:

To even qualify to GET that $500,000 loan...

You need to have a household income over $200,000 / year.

Actual median household incomes? About $75,000 / year.

So who is going to give in first? Will the house prices come back down to the mean? Or will our employers suddenly give us a 300% raise?

And then the realtwhores will say, "with all the exotic financing available... (i.e. become a house slave) you too can have the dream of Loanownership, oops homeownership."

NO THANKS!

Patch Tuesday said...

Actually, the median national household income is around $41,000.

Where I live it's $62,000. which is probably why all these 500k beasts are languishing...

AmazingRuss said...

"One more thing. In 2050 or whenever I croak, I will have a home to leave my kids. By then using the 3% appreciation per year rule the home will be worth $2M."

Doubtless written from sistermama's basement in flyoverland, typed with your grubby little trollfingers, as you wait for her to croak off and give you her house.

If you REALLY have an $1500 house payment, you bought several years ago, when it made sense. It will make sense again in a few years. Nobody here is going to rent forever. They are going to rent until the $4000 house payment gets somewhere near the $1000 rent for the same house...by price going down or rent going up.

If a house could be had for a $1500 monthly payment, we'd be all over it. A lot of us could pay cash. No such house currently exists in the areas where good money is to be made.

Patch Tuesday said...

Median Household Income in U.S is $46,242

Anonymous said...

oh the NY Times says 1% then it must be so. I've owned a home for 6 years and if I paid 0.25% a year I think it would be too high.

2000 to 2006 you ask? OK. It was 8% a year. No matter what period you look at appreciation is in the 5% to 8% a year range.

Yearly appreciation:
2000 - 2006: 8.0%
1963 - 2000: 6.4%
1970 - 2000: 7.0%
1980 - 2000: 5.5%
1976 - 2006: 5.3%
1963 - 1993: 6.8%

Patch Tuesday said...

What's your profession anon? RE Agent? Lender?

Ever bought a set of 10k heat pumps that last about 10 years yet? Or how about a new 15k roof of 50 year shingles that lasts 20? How long does the siding on these wooden crap boxes they're building nowadays last in reality?

buyerwillepb said...

patch tuesday - I don't disagree with the U.S. figures, but in S. Cal. the household averages are a little higher.

A little higher, but definitely not high enough, since the median housing prices are $500,000 or more around here.

Sometimes I forget there are some places NOT as insane as So Cal.

Anonymous said...

my have to participate in the right to vote with my feet, as far as real estate prices go, but for the fact of ownerships being a binding??!!

Anonymous said...

You are so full of shit.

$1500 a month at 6% and $25K down buys you a $285,000 home. Property tax/insurance and the federal tax deduction cancel out.

$285K is above the median price for the following cities. If you can't find a good paying job in any of these cities, someting's wrong with you.

Atlanta
Austin
Chicago
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Columbus, OH
Dallas
Denver
Detroit
Durham, NC
Hartford
Houston
Jacksonville
Kansas City
Knoxville
Louisville
Memphis
Milwaukee
Minneapolis
Nashville
Orlando
Philadeplphia
Phoenix
Pittsburgh
Portland, OR
Portland, ME
Raleigh
Richmond, VA
San Antonio
Salt Lake City
St Louis
Tampa
Tucson


-----------------------------------
"If a house could be had for a $1500 monthly payment, we'd be all over it. A lot of us could pay cash. No such house currently exists in the areas where good money is to be made."

Patch Tuesday said...

Let see:

Atlanta: Median family income (in 2005 inflation-adjusted dollars) 42,010

Austin: Median household income (in 2005 inflation-adjusted dollars) 43,731

H'mmm, I'll bet it looks the same all the way down the list...

$1500 per month on 42k per year? Yeah right...

Anonymous said...

Patches,

Are you mentally retared? The poster said if he could buy for $1500 a month he could. But he said he can't find a house for $1500 a month.

I pointed out that in 90% of the country $1500 can buy avove the median price.

Get with the discussion son.

Anonymous said...

Household income for family of 4 in Austin in 2005 was $56,900. You know the family of 4 that usually buys homes.

buyerwillepb said...

By the way, with the housing conditions as they are now, I am formally promoting all the Bitter Renters to...

Bitter Sweet Renters!

HAHAHA!

Anonymous said...

Anonymous Realtor/Lender:

I don't know where rents consistently rise 3% every year. There are good long stretches where I personally have never paid an increase. Where I currently reside (in New York no less) my landlord is happy to have a good tenant, and he will not raise my rent. I am entering my 3rd year of paying the same rate, though he could charge more (current guideline is 3.75%).

Patch Tuesday said...

Actually, you're the retard that's gonna have to convince all these bitter renters to move to your dream price locations, some of which are some real hell holes...

Patch Tuesday said...

I really like Phoenix anon, the median price is 299k and the median household income is 47k...

Anonymous said...

What the MSM didn't mention was that $3 gas in 2005 was adjusted for inflation the same price as in 1984.
------

but wages havn't kept pace.

Anonymous said...

Where I come from, $45,000-47,000 a year is sucky income. And you get to live in a crappy city as your great reward! Yeah!

Anonymous said...

I'm dying to live in Detroit so I can "afford a home". Or Tampa, or freakin' Salt Lake! What is WRONG with you??

Anonymous said...

$299K? I guess in Patchesland. But in the real world that number was $256K in Sept, $258 in Oct and $259K in Nov.



--------------------------------------
I really like Phoenix anon, the median price is 299k and the median household income is 47k...

Patch Tuesday said...

Anon is the real estate agent on duty today. Each day while manning the phones that never ring anymore in these national realty companies, the agents are required to monitor the bubble blogs and try to skewer the facts with worthless data and sales pitches...

Patch Tuesday said...

That's the 2005 census data anon, thanks for pointing out that Phoenix homes have already lost 40k in value since then...

Anonymous said...

So basically this blog should be called the

"I Live in LA and am pissed off I can't afford a Home". since Atlanta, Austin, Salt Lake, Denver, Chicago etc are not an option.

Well guess what fucknuts? You are paying a premium for living in LA. Just like people pay a premium for San Diego, San Francisco and NY. That's how it works. You can't have Omaha prices with the Pacific next door.

Anonymous said...

Patches,

I think you truly are retarded and can't follow a conversation. I said TODAY in PHOENIX $1500 a month will buy you a house above the median.

Do you know what today means?

Anonymous said...

I do believe it is being suggested that we who live in halfway decent places and rent, should pick up and move our families and livelihoods to awful, cultureless pits so we can "live the dream". I'll abandon my business interests in New York, I hear Home Depot is hiring in Memphis. But I can own a house!

Hahahaa!

Anonymous said...

Are you being paid by the comment realtor man? There may be some money in this business for you yet! Sokebody call Casey Serin. I've got a "Sweet Deal" for him!

Patch Tuesday said...

Worst yet, you're a "retard" if you don't buy into his crap...

stuckinthecity said...

Baby boomers buying smaller homes and people moving to the Chattanooga area from other states
-------------

"Chattanooga"???? God Why?

Anonymous said...

Well numbnut that is my point. you live in NY or LA and complain homes are expensive. That is YOUR choice to live there. Homes always have and always will be expensive there. And they will always be expensive there. Your fantasy that somehow NY prices will fall to Memphis prices just shows how out there you area.

Anonymous said...

New title for this blog

"I live in NY and despise the rest of the country but I'm also hoping the $1.2M condos will be $350K so I can afford to buy one and not pay $3000 a month in rent"

Anonymous said...

of course anyone who is sane and doesn't think a 60% crash in NY condo prices is coming MUST be a realtor man

In HPland anything is possible, anyone with a dissenting POV is a realtor and gold will be $1000 in '07

What color is the sky in your world kidz?

Patch Tuesday said...

Just for the record anon, why would someone with your views hang out in HP land?

Anonymous said...

Your defensiveness is showing with the namecalling.

New York will never be inexpensive. It WILL however be LESS expensive. Nobody ever suggested it would be "as cheap as Memphis". I can stomach a high cost of living, and I WILL be able to afford to buy in the not too distant future. Rents are low vs. owning. Period. (you still haven't disputed my rent vs. own in NY challenge.)

Based on your numbers, I could make a 60% downpayment on a house in Phoenix today. But I'd still have to live in Phoenix...What is there to do for a living there? Not really a hub in my business. I suppose I could become a Realtor?

Anonymous said...

Ohhhhh. Anonymous defensive guy suggests the average HPer expects a 70% drop in Real Estate prices in New York. More of us actually believe we'll get an $800,000 place for more like $600,000. That's a very realistic 25% drop from exorbidant prices developers have been charging. The pressure is building on them to move units. Prime example: http://www.curbed.com/archives/2006/12/12/55_berrys_friend_shows_up_for_the_party.php

Anonymous said...

Sorry try this:

http://tinyurl.com/tuaal

buyerwillepb said...

Yeah, ever since the blogs made headline news in the WSJ, the Realtwhore trolls have been hanging out spin, spin, spinnin'.

Looks like fat, Ohio bitch is back on blog duty today.

Anonymous said...

buyerwillpb,

It does make one wonder why the real estate trolls hang out here with this 'booming' real estate market, LOL. Obviously demand for their 'services' has fallen. They'd be better served looking into the managment opportunties at the Golden Arches.

Anonymous said...

$600,000? But with median income of $42,000 how will anyone possibly afford that? You are contradicting yourselves.

And the point I have made numerous times is that the $800,000 place was only $400,000 5 years ago. It was $450,000 4 years ago, $550,000 3 years ago and $650,000 last year. Meaning for the 90% of buyers that didn't buy last year they are better off than you renters who have been renting for the past 5 years.

And you base your 25% on what? Post-WW2 there has never been anything close to that much of a drop, with the exception of Houston in the mid 80s.

I'm no realtor. I have nothing to do with real estate aside from owning a home. I do think you people are insane.

----------------------------------- More of us actually believe we'll get an $800,000 place for more like $600,000. That's a very realistic 25% drop from exorbidant prices developers have been charging.

Anonymous said...

You might wan to tell this guy about your 25% theory:


My 2007 predictions:

1. Housing will fall anywhere from 20% (very desirable and/or wealthy areas such as NYC) all the way up to 90% (Flipper Towns), probably in shots of 5% to 20% depending on the property in question.


90% huh...meaning Las Vegas will be at $32K, Phoenix as $30K....sure that's a possibility.

You ask why I like coming here....kind of a I have to see it to believe it. If someone told me they read that some people think Las Vegas prices will fall 90%, I'd say no way. But whatdayaknow? There really are people out there who think it.

Anonymous said...

Between 1970 and 2000 we had an oil embargo, Israeli-Arab war, Iranian hostage, soviets in Afghanistan, watergate, Clinton impeachment, US off the gold standard, the destruction of the steel industry, the destruction of the US textile industry, the destruction of the US electronics industry, the semi-destruction of the US auto industry, severe recessions in 1973, 1982 and 1991, Iraq War Pt. 1, Kosovo, Bosnia, NAFTA, Mexican peso crisis, 1987 stock market crash.

And yet through all this the median price of homes went up 600% during this 30 year span.

Here we are in 2006 and you people think because there is volatility in the middle east and manufacturing jobs are being lost to China the housing market will collapse. Guess what, there has always been volatility in the mid-east and manufacturing jobs have been going away since 1965. Nothing new here folks.

If you had told someone in 1970 that their $100,000 home would be worth $600,000 in 2000 they would have laughed at you. They would have asked you to leave if you told them in 2006 it would be worh $800,000.

So you all go ahead and laugh if I say my $500,000 home today will be worth $2-$3M in 30 years. We'll see who;s right in 2036.

Anonymous said...

You folks worry too much. Housing will keep going up, just not quite as fast as the past few years. The 75 million illegal aliens that will come into the country over the next twenty years will need a place to live. Stop worrying! Illegal immigration will almost guarantee rising home prices.

Anonymous said...

http://www.feuerwher.de/forum/troll.jpg

It is a troll said...

http://www.bentsynapse.net/insults/images/feed_troll.jpg

Anonymous said...

here we go...blame the mexicans who clean your toilets for $5 an hour...everything is their fault...wait hold on a sec, I thought it was all the jews' fault.

If there were such a thing a jew illegal would be the perfect target.

Anonymous said...

Juan-Shlomo Gonzalez-Goldberg

Anonymous said...

I'm a total retard

Anonymous said...

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/analytical/fyi/
2005/021005fyi_table1.pdf

Anonymous said...

Look out everyone I just saw an illegal immigrant walking down the street...the dollar will collapse tuesday

Anonymous said...

Mr. "I'm not involved in Real Estate":

You're right New York is pretty poor, coming in a miserable 3rd on the number of millionaires list at a piss poor 62,773.

You don't think there's a few million others in New York that can afford a $600,000 place? Zip code 10021 alone has over 100,000 residents with annual incomes over $90,000.

At a six figure household income, my wife and I are considered "middle class". The outer Boroughs and Upper Manhattan significantly drop the median income, but those people aren't looking for lofts. They're looking to feed their families.

Anonymous said...

"here we go...blame the mexicans who clean your toilets for $5 an hour...everything is their fault...wait hold on a sec, I thought it was all the jews' fault."

Somebody needs to take a reading comprehension class. What is negative about rising real estate prices from massive illegal immigration?

You're so blinded by your biases that you can't even read a post without seeing an insult. An insult in your mind. Not everyone thinks that hispanics subtract from the US economy, though you obviously think that's true.

Nice try there to distract the post by building a straw man argument that existed only in your mind.

Don't take a debate class, you'd fail. It's gonna take more than some sill bogeyman argument that lives in your imagination.

Anonymous said...

You're right New York is pretty poor, coming in a miserable 3rd on the number of millionaires list at a piss poor 62,773.
God you're a fucking moron. How many homes/apts are there in NYC? a few million with a median of $1M+. WOW 62,000 millionaires.


You don't think there's a few million others in New York that can afford a $600,000 place? Zip code 10021 alone has over 100,000 residents with annual incomes over $90,000.
According to you idiots using the 2.5 times income rule they can only afford $225,000. So which is it, can they or can't they afford $600,000?

At a six figure household income, my wife and I are considered "middle class".
Good for you son

The outer Boroughs and Upper Manhattan significantly drop the median income, but those people aren't looking for lofts. They're looking to feed their families.
Start over, type slowly and you might make sense the 2nd time around

Troll Alert said...

Nice try there to distract the post by building a straw man argument that existed only in your mind.

You are correct in that this is a tact used by trolls.
When that fails then the name calling starts.
Ignore them, please.
iw

Anonymous said...

Hey when you can't post anything substative call somebody a "fucking moron", and post a bunch of question marks. It may place them on the defensive and hopefully they'll fight back with insults, thereby discrediting anything worthwhile they may have said earlier. If you can't discredit somebody, insult them. Classic troll move. Happy New Year!

only your mother loves you said...

http://tinyurl.com/yb8lqy

Pic of the HP Troll

Lost Cause said...

Who wants to buy a depreciating asset at top of the market prices? But people buy cars all the time.

Even though condo prices could be lowered so that more people could afford to own, builders are chosing to convert failed condo projects to apartments.

Lost Cause said...

I always blame illegal aliens who have no political power since they can't even vote. I never force the rich and the powerful who run this country like a private club to accept responsibility.

lost cause said...

You must hear me now HP. Why won't anyone respond to me!!!!?????

lost cause said...

I am a nice person.

Anonymous said...

"Or Tampa, or freakin' Salt Lake! What is WRONG with you?? "

Actually, its 78 in Tampa right now, and I'm a block away from the beach for 1800 sq ft of brand new house...for $350k in 2004. When you live in paradise, you dont have to pay for vacations 2+ times a year...

Anonymous said...

"Hey when you can't post anything substative call somebody a "fucking moron", and post a bunch of question marks. It may place them on the defensive and hopefully they'll fight back with insults, thereby discrediting anything worthwhile they may have said earlier. If you can't discredit somebody, insult them. Classic troll move. Happy New Year!"

You're very right. It's so easy to outhink folks who do that because they wouldn't be using insults if they had an intelligent argument. They make themselves look ignorant with such tactics.

Patch Tuesday said...

Hey Tampa dweller, tell us how much your insurance is now on that 350k place?

I was reading that houses worth 125k are costing 4k a year to insure now, is that true?

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
sane person said...

lost cause,

You are a troll that's why nobody responds to you. You are a troll because you dare to question the lunacy here.

sane person said...

But no one questions me, and I will always respond to you, lost cause.

sane person said...

lost cause,

I sit in judgement of sanity here at HP and you are sane.

I am the only one not posting from an insane asylum.

Nice to have a troll friend.

Anonymous said...

"Or Tampa, or freakin' Salt Lake! What is WRONG with you?? "

SLC is almost all white. Practically no violent crime (although lots of car theft). City is surrounded by mountains with great views from anywhere in the city. Low taxes. Best skiing in N. America less than an hour away.

I know it doesn't have the "diversity" (read blacks, gangs, graffitti) of Los Angeles or New York but oh well.

Keith and the rest of the loons at HP said...

sane person and lost cause,

Please stop questioning us financial wizzards. We know housing is crashing 90%. We know gold will be at $3000 in February. We know the dollar will be at .55 by June. We know China will dump $1 trillion by March.

This is all true because we read it online

Keith and the loons at HP said...

On and sane person/lost cause,

You must be a realtwhore(tm) (ha ha ha we're so clever) because we say so. Anyone who doesn't think gold will be $3000 and Las Vegas homes will cost $60,000 must be an out of work realthwhore(tm) (tee hee I love that play on words every time I type it)

This is all true because we read it online said...

Troll Alert, Troll Alert.
Ignore them.

http://www.fandra.org/img/troll.jpg

sane person and lost cause said...

We do not look like that. Were smart and good looking, HP Morons.

sane person said...

HP is dumber than anybodie.

lost cause said...

man ur rigt, good thing we have each other.

keith and the loons at hp said...

We read worldnetdaily.com and listen to Hal Turner's radio show. We know the truth. Nobody may dare question us.

sane person said...

Nobody may dare question us.
-----------------

I can question you all I want. I sit in judgement of sanity here at HP.
I judge Hal Turner insane and everyone at worldnetdaily.com and HP except me, of course.

sane person said...

OK this is getting too weird for me. Disagreeing on housing is one thing, but this homosexual talk is too much for me.

we know who from who said...

patch tuesday said...
This is a sock puppet troll, not the real Patch.
please ignore them all.

Patch Tuesday said...

Man, when they start posting under your nickname that's a sign that they're truly scared of what you're saying. And, I thought Keith was the only one around that got elevated to that level of charactar assasination...

Anonymous said...

Anon said:"However in year 31 the owner is no longer paying mortgage. Still paying tax and maintenance which is increasing 3% a year. The renter's rent is still increasing 3% a year".

On average, rents do go up, but alot of times, its not 3%.

I have been extremely lucky-every place I have rented, it was never increased. I lived in an apartment for 7 years before I bought my condo and never got an increase.

Today, we are renting a nice house in Reno for 2 1/2 years and our landlord just renewed our year lease without an increase.

Under these cases where rent doesnt go up, the renter comes out ahead - hands down.

LauraVella said...

Good God, some posters have already started indulging in holiday cheer.

Don't highjack the thread!

LauraVella said...

I have todays Reno Gazette-Journal paper. Scathing RE article in the Business Section titled, "Top 10 stories of 2006".

"The Housing Market decline: Be extra nice to your Realtor friends this holiday season. And maybe expect their parties to be B.Y.O.B.

BY the fourth quarter, the Reno metro area's median home price was down nearly 15 percent from the all-time high of $370,000 in January.

Realtors have taken the news hard, with the National Association of Realtors launching a nationwide advertising campaign to convince buyers that the market still is safe, the first campaign of its kind.

The good news is that it shouldn't fall much more than that, according to national experts such as Moody's Economy.com, which predicted a 17.2 percent decline for Reno by 2008. That would mean just 2.2 percent more to fall for Reno.

Key numbers: $57,600-amount the median home price is Reno dropped from January to October."

---------

My husband and I just saved 50K this year by not purchasing a house as we continue to rent. Our rent is 1,100 mo and we dont have to pay property taxes (4K) or insurance (2K). What a savings!!!

Interesting that the NAR is going all out on a new campaign- a first of its kind to try to convince buyers its "safe" to buy a home.

The NAR can spin all they want, but the numbers dont lie.

lauravella said...

I secretly wish to buy a home. But I am white trash and have a 495 FICO. DANG!!

patch tuesday said...

I hear you sister. I too am white trash and rent in the ghetto, mexican neighbors and all. FICO's 505...maybe in 2-3 years I'll qualify

Anonymous said...

All you bitter FB's will be paying $15K/yr in property taxes for the right to borrow from the bank while I pay ZERO in property taxes and can move whenever I want without having to worry about the market.

Igbore Sock Puppet Trolls said...

lauravella said...

I secretly wish to buy a home. But I am white trash and have a 495 FICO. DANG!!

Monday, January 01, 2007 2:12:05 AM
patch tuesday said...

I hear you sister. I too am white trash and rent in the ghetto, mexican neighbors and all. FICO's 505...maybe in 2-3 years I'll qualify

Monday, January 01, 2007 2:13:33 AM

LauraVella said...

Very funny children. I love your sense of humor. Is that FICO score yours?

Happy New Year!

Anonymous said...

So if your $500,000 home will be worth 2-3 million in 2036 exactly how much will the household income have to be of the family that buys it from you?

Consider how much energy and property taxes and college, etc. will cost these young families. I guess the average family will be making $500,000 a year to buy your $3 million dollar house?

Think...then post.

awaiting bubble rubble said...

Considering that house prices are falling about 1%/month now in my corner of California and that I am divorced, I feel no pressure to buy. If I were to remarry, I suspect I would feel enormous pressure to buy not only the absurdly overpriced POS, but matching drapes and furniture.

Happy 2007!

Anonymous said...

My rent has stayed the same the first two years and then dropped 13% the third year. I live in a nice apartment 5 minutes from At&T, Nortel, Countrywide and several other major corporate business offices. Where did this 3% yearly rent increase come from? I haven't seen any rent increases the past 10 years. There are so many apartments and houses out there for rent, anyone raising prices would have a vacant rental property.

Does that idiot really believe the average house will cost $3.2M in 2036? If they did, nobody would be able to afford any houses. The average pay is increasing by 2-3% yearly. How can homes increase by 6.4% yearly forever? Anyone born after 1980 would never be able to buy a home or forced to share an inherited home with their siblings. Does that make sense to the Realtrolls or do they not care?

National Ass of Realtrolls said...

Home prices will increase at 20% indefinitely. Anyone who doesn't buy now will be priced out forever. We are running out of land. Buy that $2 million house and it will be worth $50 million by the time you retire. Immigrants from Mexico will buy up all the houses if you do not buy them first.

Anonymous said...

I don't know why I didn't call out this ridiculous "Simple" example earlier.

According to the person quoted below, if I buy this home:

http://tinyurl.com/yhbkb8

it will be worth $3.2 million when I sell it after my 30-year is paid off.

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Oh I kill myself. Hoo HA!

ANONYMOUS SAID

"A simple example:

Buy a house for $500,000 today with $0 down or rent the same house for 2/3 the cost.

OWNING:
Mortgage payment: $3000 constant for 30 years at 6% fixed

- Tax/Insurance $ 500 a month
- Tax deduction ($500) a month
- Maintenance $200 month
3% increase a year

NET COST: Over 30 years $1.19M
HOME VALUE in 30 years at 6.4% appreciation: $3.2M. Why 6.4%? That is the average yearly appreciation nationally from 1963 to 2000.

Anonymous said...

Oh and if you like the neighborhood, this will also be worth $3.2 million. Jesus, better get in NOW!

http://tinyurl.com/y2q2u7

Anonymous said...

"Anyone born after 1980 would never be able to buy a home or forced to share an inherited home with their siblings. Does that make sense to the Realtrolls or do they not care?"

They'll just keep inventing new, more ridiculous mortgages - the 100-year...pass on the debt to the grandkids. Oh, but if they sell and decide to RENT, my goodness, they'll never get back in. Why would they need to, they'll have a few million in the bank!

Anonymous said...

According to the real estate lovers logic housing will appreciate at 6.4% per year for the next 30 years making his house worth $3 million? Huh?

So a house currently selling for $600,000 will be selling for $4 million dollars in 30 years?

Please enlighten us all as to who is going to buy all these $4 million dollar houses?

patch tuesday said...

Happy 1987 everyone!!!

patch tuesday said...

HUH?

It's 2007?

DAMN!! I keep thinking it is 1987 and expect to pay $80K for a home. No wonder nobody will accept my offers.

Must be the metal plate in my head I got defending my country in the military. Man if I had only listened to John Kerry and stayed in school.

Anonymous said...

Forget who's going to buy the $4 million houses. Let's use the cost of a house in one of these GREAT places listed:

Phoenix for instance the median house price in Nov. was $259K.

In 30 years those houses will be worth $1.7 million. And the median income? Today $46,242. Since 1967 that's a total growth of 38.7%. Even if incomes grow in the next 30 years at roughly the same rate, that means the median HHI will be around $64,000.

How many people earning $64,000 do you know go out and buy $1.7 million homes?

sane person said...

Where do you get your figures from?

AZ '05 median income: $45,200

AZ '75 median income $15,829

Friend, that is not a 38% growth in income.

In 2035 at the same rate the median in AZ will be $131,000.

Bitter Sweet Renter said...

The realtors are beginning to crack.

Crying Realtor

They don't have any sales to keep them busy, so of course that's why they are trolling in here calling people morons.

Patch Tuesday said...

These pukes are hillarious. Once you thrash em in public for being stupid, they come back and start posting on a fake ID with your nick.

Patch Tuesday said...

Troll said: "However in year 31 the owner is no longer paying mortgage. Still paying tax and maintenance which is increasing 3% a year. The renter's rent is still increasing 3% a year."

Ask that anon retard that's gonna have the 4 million dollar house, how much interest his house will pay each month, versus how much interest that renter's three million dollar bank account is going to pay in interest each month at the end of his 31 year fantasy?

Anonymous said...

Patch, everybody please, stop making sense.

Anonymous said...

patches,

I posted exactly what the rent vs. own would provide over 30 years including interest paid.

If you choose to ignore it, fine but don't say I didn't post it.

Anonymous said...

I wonder what rent will be in 30 years...oh wait I know, same as it is today.

In rentland fantasyworld rents never go up. Why even with the hyperinflation that is just around the corner patches' rent will be the same in 2036.

Anonymous said...

a recap for patches who missed it the first time around but feels compelled to chime in with nonsesense


OWNING:
Mortgage payment: $3000 constant for 30 years at 6% fixed

- Tax/Insurance $ 500 a month
- Tax deduction ($500) a month
- Maintenance $200 month
3% increase a year

NET COST: Over 30 years $1.19M
HOME VALUE in 30 years at 6.4% appreciation: $3.2M. Why 6.4%? That is the average yearly appreciation nationally from 1963 to 2000.

RENT:
Rent the same house for $2000 a month. Rent increases 3% a year. Invest difference between rent/own at 5% (pre-tax) return.

30 YEARS OF RENT: $1.14M
INVESTED AMOUNT (after tex) $3.1M

So after 30 years a renter and owner would have paid almost the exact amount in rent or PIT/maintenance and would more or less have the same value as the owner only in cash.

However in year 31 the owner is no longer paying mortgage. Still paying tax and maintenance which is increasing 3% a year. The renter's rent is still increasing 3% a year.

Years 31-40 the renter will pay $724,000 in rent. The owner will pay $72,400 in maintenance and taxes. The home will also have appreciated at 6.4% a year to $5.95M. The renter will be losing his investment as he has to make up the difference in rent/mortgage. The investment will be at $3.1M still as the interest made would be offset by the additional cost the onwer doesn't have.

Except in patches fantasyworld of course where rent never increases.

Anonymous said...

No we didn't miss it the first time through though very few of us were nearly as critical of your math as we should have been/ We haven't seen you address one single response to the fact that you think homes which cost $500,000 today will be worth millions in 30 years!!!

In your world:

http://tinyurl.com/y2q2u7
$3.2 Million

HAHAHA!

Anonymous said...

500,000 at 6.4% yearly appreciation for 30 years will be worth $3.21M in 2036.

6.4% is the annual average appreciation 1970-2000.

Try to follow along.

Anonymous said...

Nobody here is having any trouble following along but you. Your numbers are cracked!!!

your figures have nothing to do with reality.

Incidentally much larger, more conventietly located, better condition homes are available for rent in the same neighborhood as the $499,000 houses posted earlier. for $2000.

Try to follow along. Think before you post and all that good stuff.

Anonymous said...

Is this reality enough for you?

1963 to 2005 annual appreciation rate nationally: 6.5%

1970 to 2000 annual appreciation 6.4% per year

Anonymous said...

and I wasn't refering to any one home. I used $500,000 as an example. How can you have a home more conveniently located? There was no actual home to begin.

Anonymous said...

You're right, it's silly to think a home that costs $500K today will cost $3M in 30 years.

Median new home prices nationally

2005: $240,900
2000: $207,000
1990: $122,900
1985: $84,300
1980: $64,600
1975: $39,300
1970: $23,400
1965: $20,000

Anonymous said...

1965-1975 - prices doubled

1970-1980 - prices nearly tripled

1975-1985 - prices more than double

1990-2000 - prices up 80%

HP prediction for the next 10 years.....40% decline. Sure thing boys.

Anonymous said...

What will a $500,000 home purchased in 2007 cost in 2037? How about we use recent 30 year periods as a guide.

Using 1965-1995 numbers, it will cost $3.25M

Using 1970-2000 numbers it will cost $4.5M

Using 1975-2005 numbers, it will cost $3.06M

But HP is absolutely correct. No way history ever repeats itself. Those 30 year periods were flukes, never to be repeated again. No way today's $500,000 home costs $3M in 30 years, no freaking way. We all know 2007-3027 will be very volatile and any kind of appreciation like that is crazy.

After all, during the 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s and 00s there were no wars, no recessions, no political scandals no mid-east turmoil, no gas price spikes right? Everything was A-OK for the past 40 years with the world.

Anonymous said...

Conversation circa 1965

Anon 1:06's father: $20K for a house are you f***g nuts? Do you know what the median income is in this country? No way a house is worth any more than $12K.

Realtor: I have no clue what median is. I do know that in 40 years this house will be worth $240K.

Anon 1:06's father: $240K HA HA HA HA. Stupid realtwhore(tm) troll. Your numbers have nothing to do with reality. I'm going to keep renting thank you very much. $240K for a home, god what a moron. Who could possibly afford that?

Anonymous said...

A swarm of postings from an insecure man who's still not making much sense.

Here's a little thing you haven't taken into consideration:

http://tinyurl.com/ydnxye

Oh and uh...

http://tinyurl.com/ydx6q6


Inventory levels are at all-time highs. Construction of new homes nationwide is also starting to slow in response to out of control invesnotry levels. Price chopping is an inevitability.

Then we can ALL own $3-4 million homes 30 years from now! Heh heh

Anonymous said...

You can post all the overpriced dumps you want. You can call me all the childish names you want too.
Fact is between 1965 and 2005 a house that cost $20,000 increased to $240,000.

During this 40 years there were many times when inventories were at record highs and many times when construction was starting to slow. This 40 year perdiod included the 89/90 crash when guess what, inventories were at record levels and construction slowed down.

Anonymous said...

Conversation circa 1985

Anon 3:08: $80,000 for this home? Are you f***g kidding me? Don't you know that there are record inventories out there and construction has started to slow down? Don't you know that Japan isgoing to take over and the US dollar will be worthless?

Realtor: Sure, whatever you say moron. This home will triple in value within 20 years, you want it or not?

Anon 3:08: $240,000 for a house? HE HE HE!! What an insecure realtwhore(tm) troll. No way this home is worth $240,000. Who could possibly afford $240,000 for a home when median income is blah blah blah
Stupid realtwhore(tm). I'm renting.

Anonymous said...

I guess if things continue to develop this way based on the rate of inflation between '65 & '05 the median HHI in the US will be

drum roll please...

$275,516.29

I can't wait to pay $17 for a carton of milk.

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