December 29, 2006

For the coordinated "housing crash has hit bottom - good times are here again" crowd - what part of this chart don't you get?


No, it's not possible to move from right to left.

Ye, it hath been foretold. Thine bubble must taketh thou down thine path - all the way down. Especially for the biggest financial mania in recorded human history...

We've got a long, long, long way to go still before we start the climb back up. We're nowhere near bottom. Nowhere near.

So until then, we're still somewhere between Denial and Fear right now, with tens of thousands now entering Desperation and Panic as the foreclosure and short sale process is firmly underway. All of this "we've hit bottom" happy talk is sooooooooooooo 1929/1930 isn't it?

24 comments:

Bill Bond said...

I agree. As a whole we range from denial to fear to desparation with the median now clearly on fear.

I bet if you zoomed in on the fear dot, you would see a small circular path called hope. Any good news during fear just leads to hope and then back to fear as the rest of the news filters in.

Anonymous said...

Somewhere "Deception" has to enter into this, which is where we are right now

Anonymous said...

self deception = denial

keith said...

REIC-sponsored deception = immoral, expected and prevalent corruption

Self-deception = expected, prevalent and human nature denial

I think it'll be fascinating to some day go back and read this blog from start to finish, say 2005 - 2010. We'll laugh and laugh when we read at this early stage of the collapse these REIC and MSM "we've hit bottom" quotes.

Just like we laugh at the funny great depression quotes

But we won't be laughing in 2008, 2009, 2010. No, we surely won't be laughing then.

Anonymous said...

When HBs are bankrupt, then I'll think about capitulation stage. Looks like we are only at the fear stage now.

Joey said...

As long as the majority of homeowners looking to sell are holding out on prices (which they are), and as long as we hear stories about Wall Street Bonuses, Russian Gangsters, Arab oil Sheiks, and the Fed saving the housing market... we are still between Denial and Fear.

Anonymous said...

HP-
I think Despondency will be late summer/early fall 2007. The summer buying season will be over and there will be a huge amount of inventory that no one will know what to do with...

Can't wait!

LauraVella said...

I totally agree Anon. These sellers wont get it until a year from now. Then real panic will set in.

bozonian said...

We're still at anxiety. Bubble? no bubble? Crash? Soft Landing? They are still debating.

3% a month doth not a crash make. 36% a year does.

There's a BIG difference there, huh?

sk said...

Anxiety.

-K

devestment said...

Fearful euphoric anxiety.

Anonymous said...

I expect to see A LOT of fear induced anger in my morning commute to work on Jan. 2nd

Anonymous said...

we are still at DENIAL

brokersleaveyoubroke said...

Back in the 70's I had a good job so stagflation was just something I read about in the newspapers. Same thing during the 80's S and L bust.
Most homeowners bought their houses before the bubble so most will be fine. I don't think everybody will be hurt a lot by the crash, I think everybody will be hurt a little and a few people will be hurt a lot.
During the depression 75% of the people were fine, the 25% unemployed were in big trouble.
People will call it a correction if their neighbors house gets forclosed. They'll call it a bust if their own home is forclosed. The severity of this downturn depends on your situation. There may be a total meltdown but I don't think it's a given.

Richard said...

Keith - get rid of the upswing part of the graph to the far right...

We are done as a species...housing is just the trigger to a massive die off.

Anonymous said...

Keith, You are right!!! We won't be laughing in 2008, 2009 and 2010.

I have friends who are stretched to the limit with debt. One unexpected financial need is there worst fear. I just can't believe people would stretch there monthly income to such a limit to not be able to afford basic needs without selling there home.

Then, there worst nightmare that the one asset they relied on to bail them out is no longer a reality.

I certainly am not laughing and I hope as we progress through this very difficult time ahead that we all try giving a helping hand to our freinds and family who are less fortunate.

All of us will be affected one way or another.

Keith, Thank you for your efforts in publicizing the realities that those in the know are afraid to admit.

Keep up the good work!!!

Happy New Year!!!

I will be checking in daily!!!

Go Butch!!!

Anonymous said...

I remember the old 80's song...

"Another one bites the dust".

Lots of folks here in Ohio are losing good paying jobs as companies "restructure". They are then offered a new job at a 50% or greater pay cut. The catch is that the new job is a one time take it or leave it offer; made to the employee in a termination interview just after the employee is notified of their job elimation.

The result: 80% of the employees are mad and insulted by such a low ball offer and refuse it. Then when the newly unemployed person files for unemployement it is DENIED by the State. The legal reason the State refuses to pay the unemployment (which by the way gets back-billed to the former employer) is because the applicant for unemployment contributed to his own situation by refusing a bonified job offer.

This commonly used DIRTY TRICK, has the effect of saving the employer on termination costs and keeps the offical GOV'T unemployment numbers lower than they would otherwise be.

Anonymous said...

Forclosures are going UP UP UP!

Anonymous said...

What's the matter were you elimated recently? Maybe if you could write you'd have a job still.

-----------------------------------
termination interview just after the employee is notified of their job elimation.

honica jewinski said...

The freaking crap keeps going up around here, I think I'm gonna sell this spring.

Anonymous said...

To Anon who wrote:
"What's the matter were you elimated recently? Maybe if you could write you'd have a job still."

What's the matter with you? Your own writing doesn't fare much better at all! He's trying to inform us what's going on in Ohio and possibly other parts of the country. Your attack is totally uncalled for.

LauraVella said...

"What's the matter with you? Your own writing doesn't fare much better at all! He's trying to inform us what's going on in Ohio and possibly other parts of the country. Your attack is totally uncalled for".

Agree with you. 9:06:54 is out of line, we need the kind of info that anon 8:16:46 is giving us. We all have to know how to play the game when and if it happens.

Anonymous said...

They FBer's are desperately treading water and like that bikni blond airhead on the beach, they're shouting "Oh LOOK...Spring Dolphins..Dolphins !"

Anonymous said...

Oh puhleeze. Shut the fuck up with this bullshit about no jobs. For crying out loud you people sound like babies. WAAA WAAA WAAA my job is being sent to India WAA WAA WAAA.

If an Indian can do the same job as you for 1/2 price, well tough shit. You are not entitled to a job just because you were born in the US of A. The sooner you realize this the better.