When the SEC (finally) goes after Bob Toll for stock manipulation and insider trading, they should look at the honest quotes coming from other homebuilder CEOs.
Maybe Bob Toll hasn't read Sarbanes Oxley? Looks like D.R. Horton's Don Tomnitz, wanting to stay out of jail unlike Toll, is familiar with his fiduciary duty to tell the truth, and he's calling it like it really is.
"I'd say we're in the early stages of a declining market," Chief Executive Don Tomnitz told analysts in a conference call Nov. 14.
"And as I said [before], most of these downturns are longer and deeper than we envisioned at the beginning."
If this is Phase 1, look out.
Horton has never posted quarterly results like this: Home sales fell 51 percent in Florida, 39 percent in California, 38 percent in Colorado and 29 percent in Nevada. Sales in the company's two other major states, Texas and Arizona, were also down by double digits.
The company reported that 4 of 10 customers walked away from their contracts, a cancellation rate that's more than twice the historical norm. And it took a $199 million charge for write-downs on land and land options
December 06, 2006
Bob Toll (laughably): "Dancing on the bottom, or slightly above". D.R. Horton CEO Don Tomnitz: "We're in the early stages of a declining market"
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Great read here, it kind of bring the then and now effect to light.
http://tinyurl.com/vj75q
Na i dont go there anymore after hitting a $50,000 scratch ticket last month i am no longer into confrontation, just enjoying life in my soon to be paid off home.
Bless you my son!
HAHA homo!
Mish has a great transcript of the toll brothers call
The Conference Call was even more interesting (and entertaining) than the earnings report. Here are the highlights with Ivy Zellman at Credit Suisse questioning Robert Toll.
Ivy Zellman: "Which Kool-Aid are you drinking because I want some ... It's not what we are hearing from a lot of the other builders. ...What do you see in the data because your numbers certainly don't show it today and there is clearly a lot of risk that 2007 won't bring the optimism to reality that you are seeing, so why put your neck out Bob?"
Robert Toll: "I don't think I put my neck out. I think I made a statement in regard to what I witnessed. ... But I don't think I've made a statement with respect to the future ... I've just told what I have witnessed."
Ivy Zellman: "I'm sorry. I thought you said pent up demand...."
Robert Toll: "I think the pent up demand statement falls logically..... Taking the DC market as an example .... It would logically follow that demand is increasing in the DC market"
Ivy Zellman: "I guess that's fair but why, to be a little more pointed, if you are as optimistic as you seem//"
Robert Toll: (cutting off Ivy) "I didn't mean to project optimism, I only meant to project what I've seen in the past"
Ivy Zellman: "Ok well let's just say that you read a report that stocks will continue to surge why only buy 12 thousand shares of your stock why not buy a boatload of your stock if you really believe stocks were headed north here?"
Robert Toll: (cutting off Ivy at one point but she finishes anyway this time) "Well I referred to somebody else's belief but let us say that I believe, which I am unwilling to make a statement on, to assume your proposition that I believe, which I don't necessarily, but let us assume that I do, your question why wouldn't I buy stock ... and the answer is I believe I can make more money with my powder cash buying land and expanding the business than I believe I could make by buying my stock" [Mish note: Yes as silly as it might look in print, that is what Toll said.]
Ivy Zellman: "I think a lot of people if they ever follow you Bob, in your buying and selling personally, they made a lot of money, and I'll leave it at that". [Mish note: This is clearly in reference to insider sales.]
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2006/12/kool-aid-at-toll-brothers.html
Casey serin is my hero. He is a real estate guru and great investor. He has podcast today. See the genius in action.
well ,
you obviously read keiths cherry picking stories
how bout reading Bloomberg and see where the smart money is (not here for the most part)
today...
Mortgage applications reach 7 month high for new purchases (oh I know dead cat bounce lol, you cant accept that maybe the market is continuing to bottom and look at last summers numbers)
citigroup RAISES target prices for 13 homebuilder "the rally is happening sooner then expected" and we expect a steeper accent from her
homebuilders index UP yes UP not down you stubborn retail doomsayers, 295 over the last few months
and this in a maket environment wher most retail BEARISH,, so if more retail sellers, hmm must be more smart INSTITUYTIONAl buyers fading you caue they know that the housing is crashing play was sooooo last year and are setting up for a recovery you dunderheads
you wouldnt know a bottom when it stares at you YOU ALLL are the retail bears at the bottom lol. the last to know
supply of homes is DOWN ove this is if you look at national numbers theres life outside of ca and AZ, helllloooo,,
and purchase apps up strongly
and all this with classic retail bearish senitment (YOU ALL)
a classic bottomming,youre the last to know
median price nationally on average
AGAIN NOT some overpriced house in orane county, jeez, wont be down 50, 40 or thirty %,, it will be flat to UP and the smart money knows this....
you all dont, and ignore current numbers, and tell anecdotes to each other
I've never liked that Toll guy. Rrr! Slippery maggot, that one.
I wouldn't hang my hat on mortgage applications. An application doesn't mean the loan goes through. This is the panic beginning to set in and desperate home owners are doing what most greedy people do and that's take all the money and spend it before the foreclosure.
Anon 8:52:03 PM:
It really doesn't matter to me if prices remain flat or go up. That is, I will still be pulling in 120K in DC and will still not be able to buy anything here. And, since many in teh area make much less than I do, I know that they will not be buying anything anytime soon. And, if they do, they cannot afford the places, probably have toxic loans and/or have at least 5 other people lined up to live with them.
Yes, it is a new paradigm, 30-50 year old professionals all living together in a single house just to get by- you in the RE business should all give yourselves a pat on the back.
As long as I can rent a 3000 square foot house for less than half the cost of ownership (and invest the difference) I will not buy a house. Especially when the home asking prices in my market have dropped over 10% in six months. That's something you won't read in Bloomberg.
Man, the shorts got killed. I'd love to see them file.
Anon 8:52:03 PM, you are the biggest idiot ever. Guess what dumbass, the really "smart" money doesn't need mortgages. Mortgages are for the "dumb money" crowd.
Mortgages are up slightly on a seasonally adjusted basis. Have any idea how far they are down from last year?
Do you have any idea how long a housing cycle takes to go from peak to trough? I'll give you a hint: it's not 8 months. I'll give you another hint, it isn't even 4 years, but I'm getting warmer. Housing takes a LONG, LONG time to complete a cycle.
Hey dipshit, do you have any idea why citigroup would raise the target on homebuilders OTHER than because they see some fundamental shift in the underlying business? I'll give you a hint: look at the "upgrades" and price action of the HB's on 11/30 and compare this to the fiscal year-end date for the HB's and look at how the stock option bonuses are calculated based upon the stock price for fiscal year end. Man, you are a real idiot. Didn't you learn anything in 1999-2000?
Let's look at the housing cycle dynamic for a second: inventory rises (2006 Spring) and volume drops off, sellers drop prices, volume picks up a little, median is ajusted downward, inventory drop, next wave inventory (2007 Spring) rises more and volume drops off, sellers drop prices more, volume picks up again, median adjusted downward, rinse, repeat, rinse, repeat for several YEARS. This is not a stock market bubble you moron and there will be no quick recovery.
Current NAHB index is VERY bearish (near all-time lows). Months of inventory is VERY high for most areas. Also, the foreclosure rate is skyrocketing (up 100-300% YOY for many areas. Some areas are up 200% MOM!!!)
In order to call a bottom in housing, foreclosures have to kick in to the REO stats and market comparables and that hasn't even happened yet!!! This is basically the 2nd inning. The REIC is in overdrive trying to drum up any last suckers to buy into the Ponzi scheme and are sparing no expense to paint a little lipstick on this pig. There is an unbelievable amount of "shadow inventory" that will plow back onto the over-saturated market around the Super-Bowl. These are people that gave up selling this year to wait for next year's "rebound." Come on, you know people in this category, I know several personally that are planning on this.
Meanwhile you and your buddy Darth Toll are ready to call the bottom?!?! Good luck with that a$$hat.
TOL stock is doing just fine. If the real estate world was on the brink of collapse, I'd think the stock would not be in a strong uptrend. I think, more than anything, you people simply hope that real estate crashes. The reason: You're a bunch of broke losers.
Hey anon, it's not really a true "housing bubble" per se. It is a housing bubble / credit bubble / liquidity glut. As soon as the lenders get their fill of the downside risk credit will tighten and housing values will crash hard. Get it? Got it? Good!
I wouldn't buy a house based on a home builders stock price. We all know that stock prices can be manipulated.
Do people trying to refinance out of option ARM's get included in that mortgage application increase?
"TOL stock is doing just fine. If the real estate world was on the brink of collapse, I'd think the stock would not be in a strong uptrend. I think, more than anything, you people simply hope that real estate crashes. The reason: You're a bunch of broke losers."
No doubt you're the of the same mindset as those who laughed at Warren Buffett in '99 because 'he's a loser who didn't get tech'.
If you look at the housing market today and see sunshine you're either thick or a liar.
Haggis
Lately, So many trolls.
Whose watching the bridges?
Busy touting, pump and dump Tolls?
Guess i'll cross for zero didges.
Lying ugly midgets are _holes.
Coconutz!
CUT AND RUN!
Two subprime mortgage lenders shut down today!
http://www.banknet360.com/news/NewsAbstract.do?na_id=6460&service_id=1&bi_id=
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/subprime-lender-ownit-mortgage-shuts/story.aspx?guid=%7BF201AE5C-F0D5-4DE6-8471-197B09864C5C%7D
Now, maybe I'm being presumptuous but when the ship starts sinking, and fingers start pointing, if you are the CEO of one of these places, it's better that you've shut down, moved all your personal assets offshore and perhaps even have moved your ass to Europe.
Am I getting it? Do I now have the stuff to become a jet setter mortgage lender? Woo hoo!
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