November 26, 2006

FLASH: Even with fire sale pricing, Wal-Mart to post same store sales decline for November


Market ain't gonna like this one on next week. Flat sales are a real drop when factoring in inflation FYI.

And if you think sales are bad, wait until retailers start releasing their profit numbers - those are going to be even uglier as they chase each other to the bottom...

The US consumer, thanks in part to the housing crash, is finally spent.

Wal-Mart predicted a rare decline in monthly sales on Saturday, even as U.S. bargain-hunters jammed stores in search of gifts at the start of the crucial holiday shopping season.

Wal-Mart estimated that November sales fell 0.1 percent at its U.S. stores open at least a year -- a closely watched retail measure known as same-store sales.

The retailer will provide a final monthly sales report on Thursday, when most other major chain stores report their November figures. This would mark Wal-Mart's first monthly same-store sales decline since April 1996.

"We would frankly have expected better," Merrill Lynch retail analyst Virginia Genereux wrote in a note to clients dated Friday, pointing out that Wal-Mart had slashed prices on popular toys, electronics and other gift items to lure customers. The retailer's widely publicized $4 generic drug program should have drawn more shoppers, too.

Investors are watching holiday sales particularly closely this year to gauge how consumers are coping with a slowdown in the housing market that has already hurt home improvement retailers and furniture stores.

Consumer spending accounts for some two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, and the November-December holiday season makes up anywhere from 20 percent to 40 percent of retailers' annual sales.

40 comments:

Anonymous said...

NOW MONEY WILL SLOSH FROM INDEXES BACK INTO COMMODITIES. THATS THE PROBLEM WITH SO MUCH MONEY CREATION, ITS VERY HARD TO CONTROL.

-MAHA

Anonymous said...

This drop is sales will make them even more desperate. Watch for some crazy-ass sales being announced next week.

Also watch the impact on their competitors stocks - it won't be good as they chase Wal-Mart down

Anonymous said...

I love Wal Mart.

Bake McBride said...

1) Walmarts online site crashed on Friday because of traffic

2)Overall Retail
Black Friday Sales Jump 6% vs. 2005
By TheStreet.com
11/26/2006 12:09 PM EST

U.S. retail sales posted a healthy year-over-year gain on Black Friday, according to one national survey of mall-based stores.
Sales grew 6% to $8.96 billion from the same day a year before, according to estimates from ShopperTrak RCT, a Chicago-based research group that tracks sales at 45,000 locatiions around the country.

http://tinyurl.com/y2py29

Anonymous said...

Walmart is american despite what some people think.

They offer lower prices by out competing the other guy.

Isn't that called capitalisM?

bubble_watcher said...

And if you think sales are bad, wait until retailers start releasing their profit numbers - those are going to be even uglier as they chase each other to the bottom...

You can also be confident in knowing that the current stock market rally isn't going to last very much longer on falling consumer sales..

WalMart_Is_Evil said...

You're confused.

Sam Walton and the Wal-Mart of today have NOTHING in common except maybe the name.

Wal-mart used to run the whole "Made in USA" thing -- remember that?

Now they just sell cheap stuff from China, and everyone knows it.

Anonymous said...

What do you have against wal-mart. Please try to keep your blog intelligent, without going into a partisan rant. Most of the stuff in every other merchandise retailer is made in china and third world contries too. I just do not want to pay for extra labor costs that add no value the the final product like other retailers, just like you do not want to pay for the presence of real estate agents that do not add to the value of a transatction when you buy a house. Macys, Sears, K-mart, JC Penny, Target, Nordstrom, Home Depot, Lowes, Kohls, Costco, Office-Max, Best-buy, Frys, Staples, Old Navy, radio shack, Dollar Stores, Cell-phone kiosks, and so on do not treat their employees with the same level of skill and work experience any better or pay any better. What businesses requiring low-skilled labor have better working conditions and are not under performing, in/near bankruptcy, require massive govt subsidy, monopoly protection, or have already been bought out. Delta Air, Ford, Stop+Shop, Greyhound Bus, Delphi, Toll Brothers, Dell Computer. Please just concentrate on what you have been doing best, telling about the housing bubble, and leave your policical leanings and unrelated social commentary to other blogs.

If you wanted to relate this article to the housing bubble, you should be exploring whether the decline in income by the people who are involved in the housing construction industry are the driving force behind the decline in wal-mart sales. You should then try to explore which industries will be the next to fall, how about trucks (already happened- see Ford), how about lumber (already happened), how about, furniture stores, how about appliance manufacturers, how about... you get the idea.

Bake McBride said...

You can also be confident in knowing that the current stock market rally isn't going to last very much longer on falling consumer sales..
********************************************
The market has moved on earnings & profits....

IMO the economy will slow down a bit in 2007, but it still appears that the consumer is in good shape. Unemployment is very low, and so are intrest rates...which could drop in 07

"Black Friday Sales Jump 6% vs. 2005"

By TheStreet.com

U.S. retail sales posted a healthy year-over-year gain on Black Friday, according to one national survey of mall-based stores.
Sales grew 6% to $8.96 billion from the same day a year before, according to estimates from ShopperTrak RCT, a Chicago-based research group that tracks sales at 45,000 locatiions around the country.

http://tinyurl.com/y2py29

Anonymous said...

Anonymous: Don't be such a wank - walmart is evil and you know it.

If you want to direct the content, start your own damn blog.

keith said...

and if you believe that 6% retail sales rise report, I've got an inflation number I can sell you

Also, keep in mind that sales is meaningless. All that matters is profit, and retailers doing firesales (like homebuilders) to get sales is not good business, or good for shareholders.

The truth will come out in time.

keith said...

people who don't understand that wal-mart, china, interest rates, bonds, mortgage rates, housing prices and the trade imbalance all go together, well, they're just not too bright by me

HP'ers get it. Too bad most other people don't (yet)

Anonymous said...

Wal-Mart sells nothing but crap and whoever shops there is a stupid as the same stuff, sometimes better quality, can be found elsewhere at the same prices and cheaper.
Wal-Mart slogan:
"The uneducated lazy scum of America,
is our best cusotmer"
Now support our troops, gas up and go shopping, stupids!

hyman69 said...

all you chicken shits that posts anon.are assholes. the only intelligent posters are keith and honica jewinski.

Anonymous said...

::wal-mart, china, interest rates, bonds, mortgage rates, housing prices and the trade imbalance all go together,

An important point is not so much China but that Walmart is a virtual monopoly, in many locales, and have snuffed out other non-mail order retail outlets. The fact that everything's made in China is simply the state of manufacturing in America today, going down the drain across the board and in every sector including specialty products whereas high end manufacturing of LCD displays are still made in Japan and Korea, higher labour cost regions of Asia-Pacific. The fact that some final components, like custom furniture or custom computing servers are post-assembled here doesn't make much of a dent especially in light of Detroit Inc going out of business in a hurry.

Now, the mortgage business is an adjacent patchwork to a system which doesn't create jobs in a service sector to replace all the manufacturing jobs lost during the past twenty years. The idea is that by securitizing debt (mortgages et al), the banks of China, Japan, Korea, etc, etc can buy out all the excess money supply in the US thus creating a pool of spendable asset denominated cash flow that Americans can spend on homes, cars, TVs, etc and keep a non-manufacturing society going.

Bake McBride said...

and if you believe that 6% retail sales rise report, I've got an inflation number I can sell you
**********************************************

Do I think the 6% growth will hold?? Hell no....but it will be a strong Holiday season for retailers.

Most people are not feeling an economic pinch yet....and it won't happen in the next few weeks.

Anonymous said...

I was out people watching on black friday at a mall in N Virginia. People were BUYING and Buying. I didnt send a cent, but it was great just watching the greedy masses.

BubbleShanker said...

I can't shop at a place that treats employees and suppliers like garbage.

Bad for you, bad for me, bad for the US economy.

Go to Costco or Target, f Walmart, I will continue to short WMT, it's the American thing to do!

kennyb said...

You are the ones who don't get it.

Wal-Mart doesn't pay well. No retailer does. It's not much value added. Why should they give their employees 50K a year to stock shelves? They'd be out of business.

Wal-Mart sells Chinese junk. All stuff is made in China. TVs, DVDs, etc. If you buy it at a place other than Wal-Mart, it's still made in the same place. Wal-Mart is just the RETAILER. Same labels, different store = same country of origin.

Don't blame Wal-Mart for doing everything other stores do slightly better. Isn't that the American way?

Anonymous said...

"They offer lower prices by out competing the other guy. "

The offer lower prices through lower quality, sweat shops in china, and destroying the American middle-class, you twit!

"Isn't that called capitalisM? "

Capitalism also brought us slavery, you twit!

Anonymous said...

Walmart thinks the holy grail of sales trends is to try and go after the slightly higher end shopper, i.e. Target and Costco. The only problem is that when their ads went bi-lingual they totally lost any pretense. No se habla Espanol.

Anonymous said...

Bake McBride (a Bush supporter) wrote:

"IMO the economy will slow down a bit in 2007, but it still appears that the consumer is in good"

Yes. The massive debt load carried by Americans puts the consumer in very good shape. The last I checked, the savings rate has been negative for well over a hear, the worst since the Great Depression.

" shape. Unemployment is very low,"

All those Wal Mart and McJobs that have replaced the quality jobs lost to India under George Bush may make the unemployment rate lower, but it does not mean people are better off.

" and so are intrest rates...which could drop in 07"

More wishful thinking on your part. Foreign debt holders are getting tired of America's monetary policy which means long-term rates may sky rocket soon.

It's so obvious that you get most of your information from Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity and it only makes your posts vapid and stupid. Did you ever learn to think for yourself?

kennyb said...

Wal-mart didn't destroy the middle class. Middle class people were never shelf stockers. It's an entry level job, and it pays like it.

They don't tell companies where do produce stuff. The movement of electronics overseas would have proceeded apace without Wal-mart, and started long before wal-mart took off.

What does wal-mart sell that should be produced here? Electronics? So without wal-mart they would be making that crap here? I don't think so.

Clothes? Talk about a low-tech sweatshop business. Clothing mills moved from new england 100 years ago, to the deep south 50 years ago for cheaper wages. Did that destroy the middle class? Now those jobs are overseas. Good riddance.

The liberal jihad against wal-mart proceeds apace, without any logical explanation.

foxwoodlief said...

so if shopping is two thirds of the economy and the home market the other third what is left? I think these numbers are way over stated. The economy is more complex than Walmart and Toll Brothers.

Anonymous said...

FoxWoodLeif Wrote:

"so if shopping is two thirds of the economy and the home market the other third what is left? I think these numbers are way over stated. The economy is more complex than Walmart and Toll Brothers."

And you also believe that everyone in Arizona is making $250,000 a year and has their own yacht. We know just how seriously to take your claims!

Shakster said...

I would love to see the Phony Wal-Mart go down in flames to American competition,and that should happen with the dollar devaluing/yuan rising.Hahahhahhahhahhahhahhahahhhhaaaaaaaaaa.

Anonymous said...

Borka shops at Walmart!

Anonymous said...

Let us hope and pray for the demise of Wal Mart!

Bake McBride said...

It's so obvious that you get most of your information from Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity and it only makes your posts vapid and stupid. Did you ever learn to think for yourself?
**********************************************

Or maybe I look at the balance sheets of companies....as of today, the stock run has been due to profits.

I have no clue what 2007 will hold, but I do believe we are heading towards an economic slow-down lead by housing.

How bad will it be?...No clue. I would have assumed housing would have taken an even greater beating then it already has by now.

As for my politics...I'm registered Independant, but I'm fiscally conservative...that's why I voted against this current republican congress.

PS
Try getting a name on this board...Keith doesn't charge much for one.

Anonymous said...

Wal Mart is opening the biggest store ever in London in June.
CNBC

Anonymous said...

Fellows, at some point, Walmart sales will move to online retailers. Right now, a lot of Target's inventory isn't even on display at local stores but only online.

So, yes, for the occasional try 'em on t-shirt and pair of sneakers, people will go to a dept store, however, a lot of other things will be viewable from a browser like furniture, vacuum cleaners, etc.

The end result, there'll only be jobs at shipping companies like UPS or FedEx which'll automatically discriminate against people with weak backs or knee problems.

Anonymous said...

Pure capitalism absent a social or nationalist conscience can be a ruthless and brutal beast, especially in a global marketplace. Be careful what you wish for Virginia - you might just get the same.

Smug Bastard

Anonymous said...

"They offer lower prices by out competing the other guy."

...by importing crap from communist countries that have no labor laws, environmental standards, etc., and with which the US cannot fairly compete.

kenbath said...

...by importing crap from communist countries that have no labor laws, environmental standards, etc., and with which the US cannot fairly compete.

Exactly. The US can't compete against Chinese making $1 an hour with no healthcare, etc.

But is that Wal-Mart's fault? They're just the retailer.

Do you want Americans doing these super boring low paying jobs? We have to import Mexicans to do the low wage stuff as it is.

Anonymous said...

Walmart is capitalism at its finest. It is to be admired and not scorned.
If you don't like what Walmart pays, don't work there! I'm tired of people blaming someone else for their low wage, low skils or anything negative in their lives. Take some responsibility for your own lives you dang communists!

Anonymous said...

Read hundreds of Home Loan Reviews!
Mortgage-Lender-Reviews.com

Anonymous said...

Why should any red-blooded American have to work for minimum wage when they can either get welfare or go on disability?

Shit, just go collect disability and live with your parents. : D

Anonymous said...

People in this country stopped working long ago. Now they only want to know how to make a killing so they can retire.

Work Sucks!

Anonymous said...

"If you don't like what Walmart pays, don't work there! I'm tired of people blaming someone else for their low wage, low skils or anything negative in their lives. Take some responsibility for your own lives you dang communists! "

I have an M.S. in Computer Science. I was very skilled and kept up with new technologies. I made good money until my job was outsourced to India. So don't give me the crap that the people complaining about globalism did not acquire good skills. You try competing against someone from the third world at $3 an hour!

Bake McBride said...

I have an M.S. in Computer Science. I was very skilled and kept up with new technologies. I made good money until my job was outsourced to India. So don't give me the crap that the people complaining about globalism did not acquire good skills. You try competing against someone from the third world at $3 an hour!
******************************************
And you're having a hard time getting a job?? How is that possible when unemployment is under 2% for tech?? Most companies budgets have been expanding each of the past 3 years for tech recruitment in the US.....Common theme is that they can't find enough good talent...and are spending millions to get them.

The financial sector has a huge issue with getting good tech people. Most in demand tech workers would prefer working for a Google or an Ebay then a Citibank or UBS.

Don't blame outsourcing....maybe you need to move or brush up on your interviewing skills. There are plenty of jobs out there for your sector.