Here's the getting-desperate view from one county in California. Multiply this by thousands of counties nationwide, and you have the millions who will lose their jobs during this downturn. And all those jobs created the past few years? Poof. Realtors, builders, mortgage brokers, Home Depot salesmen, appraisers, you name it. In Phoenix they say 40% of all jobs are associated in some way with homebuilding. Could Phoenix see 40% unemployment?
Bottom line, there's your "mass job losses" that David Lereah says is needed to cause a housing crash. His own industry crashing his own industry - how's that for circular.
"Well, you know, it takes a perfect storm for a local market to have price softening, where prices actually turn down, not up. You need to have some serious job losses in a local marketplace" - the corrupt David Lereah
I see realtors from around the country quoting "millions will move here in the next 10 years" etc as they talk about the great prospects for their towns, using outdated pre-bubble stats and predictions. Western boom towns like Vegas and Phoenix especially.
Well guess what - you'll actually see population losses in those towns as their only significant industry - building homes - dries up and people scatter elsewhere (somewhere with real jobs) to go find work.
And when you see the "official" unemployment numbers come out, don't be fooled - millions will be out of work due to the housing collapse, but not counted.
How? Start with the millions of illegal Mexican homebuilders, as it's estimated 2.5 million of the illegals are employed in construction. Then add in the millions of self-employed REIC members who will not be counted in the "official" government numbers either - realtors, appraisers, mortgage brokers etc.
So just like true house prices, the true deficit and true inflation, we'll never know the real number. Even though we see the effects of the real number every day with our own eyes.
The housing industry, which propelled Sonoma County out of recession three years ago, is now shedding jobs as builders, mortgage brokers and real estate companies feel the impact of the slowdown.
The sector, which employs one in six workers in Sonoma County, lost 1,300 jobs in the three-month period ending June 30, according to a new study.It could lose 2,000 more jobs before the shakeout is expected to end next year, reducing employment to 28,700, the study forecasted.
The job losses - the largest since the housing market was in retreat in early 1990s - have been deeper than anticipated, even in an industry accustomed to employment swings as housing cycles run hot and cold.
The effect on the economy will be magnified because many of these workers earned $60,000 to $70,000 or more a year during the housing boom, far more than the typical worker in the county.
"It's going to be painful," said Steve Cochrane, an analyst with Moody's Economy.com, which prepared the study on employment in the county's housing sector. "I'm surprised at how steep it is. You don't want to read too much into any one single quarter. But these numbers are really following the trend in housing," he said. Home sales have tumbled 25 percent over the past year, while housing starts have plunged 38 percent.