September 17, 2006

Why do I have dot-com collapse deja-vu all over again? It's not just the sales collapse, it's the inventory stupid


Here's a snippit from an article from 2001 on Cisco:

On Tuesday, the network-equipment giant provided the grisly details behind its astonishing $2.25 billion inventory write-off in the third quarter, essentially admitting that it too was caught up in the Internet hype that, at its peak, gave the company the highest market capitalization in Wall Street history.

To keep up with the frenetic pace of network-equipment orders during the Internet's heyday in the mid- and late-1990s, Cisco placed big orders for communications chips, optical lasers and subassembly boards from its suppliers.

But the wicked combination of the dot-com implosion and the deteriorating economic conditions in the United States and abroad finally caught up with the world's largest data networking equipment maker, causing sales to decline at an astonishing rate and leaving Cisco with billions of dollars in equipment and materials that it couldn't sell and likely won't be able to sell in the next 12 months.

And now here's a current article from the Southeast US on the imploding housing bubble:

For two years it was a feeding frenzy. What began as a pragmatic investment alternative to a shaky stock market after Sept. 11, 2001, suddenly prompted thousands of regular people to jump into real estate.

Huge subdivisions went up atop properties investors had bought, then sold, at jaw-dropping profits - 30 percent, 50 percent, 60 percent over the purchase price.

Long stretches of roads were lined with strip malls, shopping centers, pharmacies and restaurants. Hundreds of condos were stacked along the Caloosahatchee River.

Developers and builders couldn't work fast enough. Waterfront lots became scarce. Property values and taxes shot through the roof. Impact fees were assessed as officials attempted to make growth pay for growth. Nonresidents were required to pay a bed tax. Dozens of new schools had to be built, and fast. Traffic began to snarl.

In Fort Myers, the raging real estate market came to a screeching halt late last year.

"The brakes went on 'boom!' it stopped," said local builder Bart DeRosso. "It's definitely, definitely dried up."

"If you want to know where the market's going, you look at inventory," said Denny Grimes, a Realtor in Fort Myers. "We don't have a demand problem, we have a supply problem. We had a market binge and now we're going to suffer a little bit."

25 comments:

Anonymous said...

I'm bullish on the US, medium- and long-term, because we now find ourselves in circumstances of global competition, where the best economy will end up on top. The US has unrivaled transportation and product-distribution infrastructure for a country its size, a good legal framework for investment, positive demographics, the world's best research and higher-education facilities, high agricultural output, a variety of climates, three long coasts with hundreds of ice-free ports, people willing to work insane hours for years on end, and a diverse and free-thinking population constantly coming up with marketable cultural goods. Due to the fact that we keep importing more and more goods and outsourcing services, even with our historically low employment we have lots of dormant production capacity that can come online to satisfy domestic and foreign demand. We're also about to have some of the most affordable housing in the world. Oh, and did I mention that our massive foreign debt is denominated in our own currency?

No country is poised to take our place. Europe and Japan have negative demographics; Europe could solve this by increasing Middle Eastern, African and Eastern European immigration, but Japan can't without stopping being Japan. In order to have fast-growing economies they would have to absorb immigration at a US-like rate - they can't turn around the native population decline easily. Russia is highly-educated (average Russian probably better-educated than average American or even average Western European) and innovative, and has a population that has proven (in Stalin-era times and today) that it can work hard enough to develop the economy extremely quickly, and it has the risk-taking spirit that led it into space, but today it has the same demographic problems as Europe and Japan, but doesn't have highways and other basic infrastructure over most of its massive territory. To get up to the infrastructure level of another big northern country like Canada would take billions in capital investment, and that capital tends to leave the country because of the corrupt legal system.

China and India and other various "tigers" have massive, poor populations that are becoming effectively employed now due to US demand for goods (China) and outsourced services (India). Take away that demand, and these goods and services cannot be absorbed in their domestic markets.

Brazil is rapidly becoming the powerhouse of South America and has the technology to build fighter jets and make sugarcane into ethanol on a massive scale, and it doesn't have the reverse demographic problem of Russia, but it has the problems of China and India in the sense that only a small fraction of the population has the education necessary to be useful in today's marketplace other than as factory-worker or farmer.

There are currently some massive economic imbalances around the world that have potential to cause lots of people lots of pain. But no country is positioned to handle a downturn better than the US. Whatever happens, no one argues that the population will decrease, that Americans will stop inventing and innovating, that we'll default on our debt, or that anyone can come in and repo our infrastructure, natural resources or widely-varied lands and waters (which can produce everything from Douglas firs and Arctic char to pineapples and Gulf shrimp).

Anonymous said...

You can't live in a dotcom stock certificate, therefore the gains are permanent. It's a new paradigm!

-RE.Agent

Anonymous said...

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
George_Santayana

Anonymous said...

...we have a supply problem. We had a market binge and now we're going to suffer a little bit.

Suffer a little bit? I guess we're spinning what little we can here. How bout you and your flipper clients will be bending over and taking a huge porno-sized c*ck over the great housing collapse in bubbleicious flordia... PRINT THAT

Anonymous said...

You can't live in a dotcom stock certificate!

You won't be able to live in an over-priced Mcmansion either!

Pick your poison!

Anonymous said...

If it's overpriced, it won't sell

If there's too many available, they lower the price.

If there's a glut, Lowball em!

A recession or worse, sit back watch the carnage,

Wait for the,
'All offers accepted' signs!

Sitt'n on the sidelines, cash in hand!

Anonymous said...

"You can't live in a dotcom stock certificate, therefore the gains are permanent."

No they're not! If most people cannot afford the overpriced houses, they cannot buy them and thus the prices will eventually have to come down. I take it you are not familiar with what happended to real estate in Japan. But you say, it's DIFFERENT here, right!.

Anonymous said...

Ballsy Gambler said: "Whatever happens, no one argues that the population will decrease, that Americans will stop inventing and innovating"

Americans who have had their jobs outsourced to India do not innovate. They are too busy trying to get a new job to feed their families. And since high-tech jobs are being offshored, there no longer exists a reason to get educated in these fields.

You need give your opitimism a rest and get with reality.

blogger said...

"Whatever happens, no one argues that the population will decrease"

-uh, I'd argue that millions of the now-unemployed illegal mexican home builders will be a-headin' on home soon

Anonymous said...

Said: Wait for the, 'All offers accepted' signs!

Check out this brand new 4,000 SF house in one of our local subdivisions called Pembrooke:

All the COVENIENCE of a home is here. Prices/pets NEGOTIABLE, 3 miles 5 minutes from BASE. Brand NEW, 3 levels, 6 B/R, 3.5 BA, 2 car attached garage, 4000 SQ FT area, FULLY-FINISHED walk-up basement, 9 FT ceiling, wall to WALL carpet, big SODded yard, deck, concrete porch, TV shelf over gas FIREPLACE with prewired speaker system in FAMILY rm, REC rm, big kitchen with center ISLAND, WOODen foyer, WASHER and DRYER, 2 electric garage OPENER, multimedia in every b/r, ALARM system, dining rm, living rm, dinette, huge master's bath with DOUBLE sink, soaking TUB, separate shower and WALK-IN closet. Willing to go LOWER with immediate occupancy and extended lease. A MUST SEE!

http://tinyurl.com/g9qpr

Anonymous said...

Forgot the best part: $2,200 NEGOTIABLE

Anonymous said...

According to the Maryland tax site, the Builder still owns this thing...

Anonymous said...

Gambler,

Your bet is based on myths.

1. POSITIVE DEMOGRAPHICS

I sad it before and say it again. When US enter recession (following by depression ;-{{{ ), then millions of low-skill illegal immigrants will go back. After that, hundred of thousands high-skilled H1-bs, and even green card holders (Indians, Chinese, Russians) will flee this country too.
I'm one of them and I 'm ready to do this (as well as many of my friends). Many of my friends bought houses, but they won't stay longer than can afford paying their loans from unemployment benefits. They'll try to find another job, but when SHTF there will be none left.

Housing market will be really crushed then...
I would say totally collapsed.

2. WORLD'S BEST RESEARCH AND HIGHER-EDUCATION FACILITIES

Yehh, it's true yet. But, do you have any idea who are using these facilities? Mostly foreign students. Consider this: 20k engineering graduates per year in USA versus 200k in China. How about this? More than a half of professors are foreigners too. They'll leave this country too during depression.
American kids want to be lawyers, doctors and work for government (all these occupations are parasitic for economy). Nation should work but be sick and treat each other.
Watch for obesity problems among American kids, after 40 they’re not workers but patients for hospitals.

3. TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE

You're kidding. EVERTHING IS BASED ON CAR TRANSPORTATION. That's why every gas price rise is brake for economy. Average food you buy at supermarket is delivered from 1500 miles away!!!
Will it be sustainable when gas price hit 7-8 $/gallon?

Do you homework, gambler! Study the basic things!!!

3. SCIENCE, R&D
... in the middle of outsourcing to China and India. Merck has opened biggest research facility in China, what about that? When last time US opened new research center ( many postgraduates with PhD can't find good research position in US), do you know the statistics? They're good for accounting, yehh.

4. RAMPANT DEFICIT and ENORMOUS SS, Medicaid and Medicare will kill that country when 70 baby boomers retire. Or they won't? I bet many of them will work until they die.

5. What is left? Yehh, good climate.

How about water shortage? What do you know about water supply situation in Kansas? Have you heard that they're depleted the wells and farming is dying there?

Gamble wisely, gambler.

Anonymous said...

Let's think simple thoughts. The Chinese are building Honda's and paying their employees about $1 an hour. In the United States we are offering granite counter tops to induce people to buy homes with no money down. I don't know how much time we have but I do know it is just a matter of time until the US economy loses.

Anonymous said...

"How about water shortage? What do you know about water supply situation in Kansas? Have you heard that they're depleted the wells and farming is dying there? "

Of all the ominous converging threats, the H2O situation scares the holy living hell out of me.

Anonymous said...

:the H2O situation scares the holy living hell out of me.

Dude, there's water in Canada, as well as oil.

And when that runs out, de-salination of the oceans but paying the price unless economies of scale are reached.

Guys, the technology is out there, we just have to use our brains to get to it.

Anonymous said...

paintblot is back as an anonopussy.

Anonymous said...

Ecobuilder please don't leave us here. Who's going to replace the high tech job or the R&D jobs, the rednecks? LOL. All they're good at is cuss & bitch.

Anonymous said...

Without water they were nothing. They built a house of straw. The thundering machines sputtered and stopped. Their leaders talked and talked and talked. But nothing could stem the avalanche. Their world crumbled. The cities exploded. A whirlwind of looting, a firestorm of fear. Men began to feed on men.

On the roads it was a white line nightmare. Only those mobile enough to scavenge, brutal enough to pillage would survive. The gangs took over the highways, ready to wage war for a tank of juice. And in this maelstrom of decay, ordinary men were battered and smashed.

Except for one man armed with an AK-47, and a Honda full of silver.

Anonymous said...

SHAKSTER: "To ballsy Gambler
Good Points,I mostly concur.We have an Industrial foundation to be rivaled by no other country ,including China."

You're such an idiot!

Anonymous said...

Hi Ecobuilder,

I agree with many of your points - especially about the career paths chosen by American students. I was one of the few US citizens in a graduate program in engineering, and it remarkable how many Americans go into law instead of engineering.

That said... you might want to read a Duke study on the number of engineers who graduate in China and India (just google around, you'll find it). India and China have a very lax definition for "engineer". In the US, the term means something very rigorous. Information Technology majors are not counted, nor are graduates of unaccredited programs. China and India are counting technical school graduates (in some cases, even auto mechanics) as engineers. Many of the degrees do not involve a calculus-based curriculum, and many do not take as may years to complete as they do in the US.

That's not to say that India and China don't graduate great engineers - I met them in grad school, and some great talent comes out of these countries. But the number of true engineering graduates in China/India is vastly lower than what you typically hear in the media.

Keep in mind - US corporations want to inflate the numbers to pressure congress to issue h1B's and fund degree programs, and China and India like to inflate the number to attract foreign capital. So most of the people pitching the press have an interest in these inflated numbers.

On the down side, this also means that if engineering declines in the US, the world shouldn't count on India and China to keep innovations flowing - we could see some brutal global. stagnation if the US continues on this path.

Anonymous said...

Did I not make this comparison last week?

Anonymous said...

Anon 4:09:18,

Correct me if I'm wrong, but here in the U.S., they also have a lot of titles as "enginers" even though it's not a B.S. degree. It's kind of the most abused title. I think the only ones who can rightfully claim to be an engineer are the ones who are state registered (P.E.). The rest must use the "techician" title.

Anonymous said...

Bart DeRosso? That jerk never paid me for the company website I worked on for him. "Boom!" Hope the Florida market crashes further.

Anonymous said...

As a Microsoft Certified Systems Engineer, I agree that the testing for engineers is very rigorous.