Marin Real Estate Blog shows a pretty typical flipper in trouble, chasing the market down in a desperate attempt to find a sucker (oops, I mean buyer).
It's interesting to think about the psychology involved - here's my guess how that goes:
Stage 1: Honey, we're gonna get RICH off this thing! We'll make more on this one brilliant transaction of ours than we will with our take-home pay for 10 years!
Stage 2: Honey, I think we put it out a bit too high - good for us though testing those waters. Let's take it down a smidge, be done with it and off to Tahiti!
Stage 3: Honey, we didn't use all the HELOC and cash-out refi money up did we?
Stage 4: Dammit woman, I told you, it'll sell when it'll sell. I can't control the damned universe! Now let's be patient, don't worry, it'll sell, let's just take the price down again. Dammit - you're the one who told me it was a great investment - but I'll be dammed if the damn bubble didn't burst right when we were trying to sell. I know, I know, I read HousingPanic now too, but there's got to be a sucker out there somewhere willing to take this damned thing off our hands
Stage 5: Honey, I'm filing for divorce today. And also bankruptcy. Now get out. Maybe your damned friend Suzanne will let you sleep at her place. Oh, she lost her house too? Oh well...
Stage 1: List $1,045,000
Stage 2: Price Reduced: 04/11/06 -- $1,045,000 to $997,500 (-4.5%)
Stage 3: Price Reduced: 05/05/06 -- $997,500 to $949,000 (-5%)
Stage 4: Price Reduced: 06/12/06 -- $949,000 to $939,000 (-1.1%)
Stage 5: Price Reduced: 08/30/06 -- $939,000 to $899,000 (-4.3%)
September 17, 2006
Chasing the market down, down, down, down. I hope they put the HELOC cash in a nice safe place...
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13 comments:
check this link for pircese dropping down
http://www.kernerhomes.com/properties/windemere/winhouse.asp
lesson for hp'ers - if you have a long link, go to www.tinyurl.com, enter it there, then post the tinyurl link here
here's the one above:
http://tinyurl.com/gf2w6
I hate tinyurl because you don't know where the damn link goes.
How bout a little HTML lesson on constructing a link like so <a href="http://www.google.com">Google</a>
.. ah nevermind, no one will remember that. Oh well, tinyurl.
14% in 5 months and still no sale? Yummy! This one calls for a low ball offer at $350k.
don't know where the damn link goes.
It goes into Keith's archives which will be a time capsule and studied by anthrapologists in a 1000 years.
Hopefully they will not be Islam anthropoligists, because that means we lost.
Anyway, then Man Kind will never have to "Chase the market Down Down Down" again, because HP taught the Human Race better.
(:
I talked to a FLIPPER last night,well dressed,Lexus SUV,his wife have 15 K$ diamond ring...
He sold 152,000 condo to my friend for 198,000, but he has 4 more to go with prices in the 300"s.
5 ARM neg Mortgages and he is getting very nervous.
He haven't get any offers in last 2 months.
I was joking that I will buy one of his Luxury condos for 90$ per sq foot. :-)
"...his wife have a 15k$ diamond ring..."
Do you think Suzanne researched it?
That FLIPPER is a failure from the get go, masked with unsustainable material possessions. He will go downhill big time. Worse, he may be like Marion and become homeless and he'll go FLIP.
It looks like a craker box on a big wave just waiting to let go of the hillside in the next big rain. How do hillside homes like that do in a earthquake? Heck, if that house don't come down one of the ones above it shure could and end up in your living room. Lowball it at $199K, it's not safe for your family.
Eratum: I mean Mario (not Marion), the guy from El Salvador.
dogie, in ny, would pay 70g in tax every year, and been sold for 1/4 the tax assessed value years ago, just to receive the prorated 2 year refund, and avoid the fair market days tax equal to 15% of its value yearly, but with cal wages, and one in ten affordability, with ten in the community???and nationwide average income for retired couples at 36g?
GO AWAY!!!!!!!!!
Anyone interested in Amway!!!
Chuckle Chuckle!
So do you know what these people paid for the house? They may have lowered the price substantially but if they bought for much less then it is a matter of perspective if they lost money.
As I've mentioned before, most of my friends have owned their homes for quite a while and my parent's since 1963. In the bay area the homes in my parent's area sell for $800-1.5 million. They paid $16,000, are 72, paid off years ago. How far does it have to drop for them to loose money? Same for my twin in Brentwood in the bayarea, bought his house ten years ago for $298,000, sold his house in SJ put $200,000 down. Homes nowselling for $650-800,000. He'd be smelling like a rose if he sold for $400,000 which would be a 50% drop. Our friends in Phoenix? Same, their homes bought for $145,000 fifteen years ago, area homes selling for $450-1 million so if their price falls 50% they still make money. Another friend in Avondale paid $212,000 five years ago. Recent sells were $420,000 for the same house. If the price falls to $300,000 they sill walk with over $120,000 (they owe about $180,000)
Point? You need more than half the story to figure out what is going on. Not every American is an idiot who over-paid, bought in 2004, didn't roll over equity and is as vunerable as idiot Californians....oh, but statistically they have one of the lowest mortgage deliquency rates in the country or forclosures.
Will prices fall? In those over-heated markets most definitely! On my trip I overheard a doctor telling his friend that another doctor was buying a house in Pisomo beach area for 15 million and walked away from his deposit because he figured the loss from completing the purchase would be higher.
It is like here in Texas, prices per sq ft range from $10 to $400 for most homes but what does that number by itself tell you? Nothing. You need to know where, what condition, how much land, if it was a forclosure etc.
Some of these stories are no different than those Muslim radicals taking the Pope's comments out of context to inflame.
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