September 21, 2006

What does the US economy look like when it suddenly falls off a cliff? See the Philly Fed report today

Posted by blogger at 9/21/2006

18 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dow up 7% for the year and is within 400 points of its all-time high.

September 21, 2006 9:58 PM
Anonymous said...

down 80 points today

September 21, 2006 10:02 PM
Anonymous said...

DOW up 300 points in 5 wks.

September 21, 2006 10:02 PM
blogger said...

memo

To Dow:

Might want to read the Philly Fed Report and check out those housing numbers!

Regards

HousingPanic

September 21, 2006 10:05 PM
Anonymous said...

The Dow will most likely lose money compared to the dollar for the year.

It may stay near an all-time high, but that was an all-time high reached 6 1/2 years ago, nothing that exciting.

In the 90's the Dow was hitting all-time higs on a monthly basis. Now, it's taking years to struggle back to it. That's what a bear market does, not a bull market.

September 21, 2006 10:22 PM
Anonymous said...

http://www.econbrowser.com
/archives/2006/09/
watching_housin.html

September 21, 2006 10:32 PM
Anonymous said...

Take a look at UncleJack's blog. He has a graph showing margin borrowing to buy stocks is near an all time high while the volatility index is reading near all time low...indicating lack of fear in the market.

THIS IS A WARNING....for those smart enough to notice.

http://www.myunclejack.com/

"The spread between margin debt and volatility has not been this high, ever. For the novices among you, that means great amounts of complacency combined with high amounts of leverage."

September 21, 2006 10:34 PM
Anonymous said...

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September 21, 2006 10:49 PM
Larry said...

autofx in Phx said...
Anonymous said...
Dow up 7% for the year and is within 400 points of its all-time high.~
Tell me this: what unit do we use to measure the DJIA?
THE DOLLAR.
Hahahahahaha!
You don't get it, do you?
========================
YES, WE DO. YOU HAVE BEEN IN YOUR BUNKER TOO LONG AND THE $2000 THAT YOU WENT DOWN WITH ISN'T WORTH $2000 TODAY.

September 21, 2006 11:02 PM
Bill said...

looks like KB Homes hit another bumo in the road ..

http://tinyurl.com/hrlxm

September 21, 2006 11:31 PM
Anonymous said...

SPLAT!!!!!

September 22, 2006 1:12 AM
Anonymous said...

There was a big economic pow-wow at Camp David two weeks ago. The Fed already knows what's coming, and I expect they received authorization to execute a contingency plan.

1) There might be an ugly stock market crash for a few days, but it will miraculously bounce back. The Fed's PPT will pump in whatever liquidity is needed to the big players.

2) Mortgage rates are headed down to keep the housing bubble from becoming a rout. The Bank of Japan is supplying the funds to keep the carry trade alive at the lower rates. Watch as lending standards are relaxed even more in a move to keep housing sales going in '07.

3) Treasury printed $2 trillion in paper currency last Spring. That cash is sitting in warehouses, ready to offset any run on bank deposits.

4) Several Executive Orders are probably drawn up and ready for Bush's signature in the event of a crisis. One would place a 50% tax on precious metal transactions, another would ban funds transfers outside of U.S. banks without a government license, and finally expect some kind of payout or debit card doled out to low-income workers as a prop to keep consumption spending alive and limit riots (helicopter money).

September 22, 2006 4:59 AM
Anonymous said...

Most of the stuff you mentioned won't stop the bubble from bursting, it already has. Doesn't matter what Mortgage rates do, and those things the government will do, will only make things worse.

September 22, 2006 5:46 AM
Anonymous said...

Rate increase or no rate increase....housing is going down....when there is no demand then prices fall.....it is as easy as that.

Where prices will not fall is on food water electricity etc...

McMansions will be a dime a dozen.

September 22, 2006 3:15 PM
Anonymous said...

Yes, house prices will fall, but how far? At some combination of interest rates, price, and incentives (60-year, no doc, zero down, etc) the demand will return and prices will stabilize.

Interest rates for mortgage loans have been coming down for two months. The powers that be are trying to prevent a collapse in housing.

September 22, 2006 4:37 PM
Miss Goldbug said...

Does anyone remember the stock market crash cover when the bulls were running off the cliff from
Newsweek magazine? It was either April or May 99' or 2000.

Very good articles in that edition. Wish I still had it.

September 22, 2006 6:07 PM
Tp said...

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October 17, 2006 6:31 PM
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May 23, 2007 8:57 AM

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