We know the REIC will be losing millions of jobs. But with consumer confidence plummeting, combined with CEO pessimism rising, expect lots more of these big layoff announcements. Did you see the one where Nokia is laying off half their staff in San Diego? Ouch.
Can't be fun to lose your $100,000 a year job at the same time your no-down ARM is adjusting (again) upward while the value of your house is dropping, and your credit cards are maxed out.
The perfect household-level financial storm.
Intel may cut 10,000-20,000 jobs: report
Intel Corp. is expected to announce as early next week that it is cutting 10,000 to 20,000 jobs from its worldwide workforce of 100,000, according to a media report Friday.
Intel reportedly has scheduled an internal announcement next week and could publicly disclose the cuts after market close Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition, citing unnamed people familiar with the situation, and a report on CNET News.com
September 01, 2006
Uh-oh.. Here come more layoffs... Not the best time for this news..
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Be afraid, very afraid. Look at all the stock buybacks from a lot of the major US companies. Most recently the $3 Billion buyback from Boeing. That is an important signal because it shows that companies don't want to invest, take on risk, or extra capacity. Why? because they feel there is going to be a major economic slow down and are preparing accordingly. They are hunkering down for the winter my friends and so should you.
Most recently the $3 Billion buyback from Boeing. That is an important signal because it shows that companies don't want to invest
bake,
You're fooling yourself. Tech is in as deep of trouble as the housing sector. Tech jobs are being exported and profits imported. Companies are protecting their bottom line, not the individual.
Unemployment rate in tech is deceiving. Loads of ppl gave it up in the bust. Some moved to under employment of website design or other lower paying jobs. The tech money is dead money.
Major economic slowdown on the horizon. The Fed might delay but it will only make it worse.
Be prepared. No debt, no where.
No more HELOCs to buy all those little electronic gadgets and HDTVs. Major layoffs coming at Intel and AT&T soon.
BRAHAHAHHA!!
Cuts are great. I'm immune. That is teh power of a gov't. job. No need to asskiss to keep your job.
Actually some of the tech jobs are coming back to the US because the retarded CEO's greed caused loss of business. I for one only purchase DELL equipment. All support is here in the USA for businesses and gov't. Screw IBM and HP. I want someone who speaks english....correctly and I can understand.
Unemployment reports a DECREASE in unemployment....your information seems speculative at best
Here's a good article on the housing buble, and what it will mean for future employment and the economy:
http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney08302006.html
Ahh yes and the Labor Day Curse continues
"I work with their recruitment budgets every day, from staffing firms to Fortune 500 companies, and they all tell me need more tech."
Hey bake, as much as I agree with the present day scenario, here's where I depart.
A lot of tech executives make decisions in cohort. So yes, during the '01-'03 period, they overdid it on the layoffs and offsourcing which has caused a headcount/turnover meltdown at Tata, Wipro, and Infosys in India today. Now, they're trying to make up for the pent up shortstaffing issues that they, themselves, had created during the first half of the decade.
Now, here's the problem, as financial reports (RE and consumer spending indices), come out, they'll also act in unison and put out hiring freezes. Those freezes will start slowly and then build up momentum as everyone starts implementing them. So today, we hear of Nokia but in a quarter or so, we'll be seeing Akamai, Cisco, and others put out hiring freezes as well.
And realize, other industries like auto, chemical, biotech, etc don't behave in this herd/cohort mentality as tech/IT. For others, a period of reduced sales (or increased inventory) will trigger hiring freezes and subsequent layoffs. So I expect tech to lead off the layoffs, once again, during this downturn.
BRAHAHAHHA!!
Cuts are great. I'm immune. That is teh power of a gov't. job. No need to asskiss to keep your job.
Actually some of the tech jobs are coming back to the US because the retarded CEO's greed caused loss of business. I for one only purchase DELL equipment.
Piece of shit, Proprietary DELL Crap..$599 throw away computer. but hey to each his own..build one and then you can apreciate what a real computer does. I to work in the goverment sector 21 years, and just a little heads up my friend, and with all due respect..no job is ever to secure..just as no man is a mountain.
I recently had my thinking turned around about the current and future job market in the US. A Whole New Mind, by Daniel Pink was a bit of an eyeopener.
I'm someone who used to see only the value of left brain skills when it came to work (i.e. analysis, rationality, etc). Given the fact that Indians and Chinese will do the job for 1/5 the cost (or less) and automation continues at a voracious pace, an additional source of competitive advantage is needed. Left Brain skills alone won't keep your happily earning. Right Brain skills are needed too. Worth a read.
"Unemployment reports a DECREASE in unemployment....your information seems speculative at best"
Speculative? You want speculative? Look at how BLS concocts those unemployment and job growth figures. Only 15% of the data are from actual sampling and headcounts. The rest, 85%, is based on computer models and hedonic measures. IOW, it's mostly bullsh*t, smoke and mirrors.
Look around and you will see there is considerable un/underemployment where people who once earned $20-$30 per hour are now taking jobs at $8-$15 per hour with no bennies. Tech companies are hiring all the H1B visa holders they can get because they can offer them crap wages compared with American workers with similar skill sets.
b/c of the likelihood that the economy is rapidly slowing, and will decelerate further in the months ahead, be prepared for the fed to cut rates sooner than most expect, perhaps the first cut coming by year end.
and when the fed does begin to cut next time, they will have to slash in large increments, i.e., 50-100 bps, to get ahead of decelerating inflation and sinking house and stock prices. the fed has had to cut the real funds rate to NEGATIVE 3-3.5% in past recessions and rate cut cycles, which implies that the funds rate is headed below 1% at some point, and perhaps to 0% (as in Japan).
similarly, if the 10-yr. t-note yield falls the same amount as in past rate cut cycles, the t-note yield is headed to 2.25-2.5%. this will put the 30-yr. mortgage rate at 5% or even below at some point with adj. rates falling below 3%. japan's 20-yr. mortgage fell as low as the low 4% and floating rate to near 2.25%, believe it or not.
but these rates will be occurring b/c loan demand/qualifying will COLLAPSE along with falling nominal house prices. savings and MMF rates will be near 0%, the yield curve will be flatter at lower nominal AND real rates, slamming banks' margins and ROA for non-bank finance and insurance firms.
as to the tech sector, don't forget that the housing bubble drove purchases of appliances, consumer electronics, etc., all of which boosted the tech sector. when housing busts, tech will fall still further into the abyss.
collapsing rates and soaring mortgage defaults and loss reserves at banks and other firms will cause real m2 to contract, monetary base to soar (the proceeds going to banks buying treasuries to shore up their balance sheets), and money velocity to collapse, risking outright price deflation. the relative value of the US$ will firm or strengthen.
thus, treasuries will outperform stocks, bonds, real estate, and, yes, even commodities for a few yrs.
gold and commodities, stocks, corporate bonds, REITS, and real estte are a SELL, and treasuries are a BIG BUY.
IMPORTANT NEWS FLASH
MSM has finally caught onto the coming impact of "nightmare mortgages":
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_37/b4000001.htm
Right now I'm reading this article, and it's just repeating everything I've heard on this blog and others ...
GET ON THIS, KEITH !!!
BUSINESSWEEK COVER STORY!
Here's the whole link:
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/
06_37/b4000001.htm
Calculated Risk did a decent write up of it.. Check out Businessweek's "Map of Misery" showing the states with the highest number of these loans. California is going to implode!
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2006/08/businessweek-toxic-mortgages.html
http://www.businessweek.com/common_ssi/map_of_misery.htm
"Actually some of the tech jobs are coming back to the US because the retarded CEO's greed caused loss of business."
It's because the American tech CEOs all went for India, at the same time, causing a labor shortage/management crisis over there.
At the same time, India isn't the overall cheap solution for all white collar work like everyone thinks... paralegal and other office type of functions still go on here due to miscommunication/management issues in addition to data theft.
What's happening now is that other countries are coming online for IT support: Vietnam, Romania, Turkey, etc. Computer programming, right now, is the best way for a merging nation to become a global player.
So, this current USA-based tech hiring is a temporary break before the next outsourcing destinations come on board. And simultaneously, other local (and sensitive) work like accounting, paralegal, etc will resist offsourcing due to the prior debacles in India with data privacy, etc. In contrast, no one cares who writes the code provided that there's some corporate level support.
All and all, my prediction is that coding is dead in the future and what'll remain is sales and consulting for the IT industry, however, most IT professionals will work for a conglomerate or two down the road like an Oracle or Accenture.
As for office work, in general, the service sector will remain, however, it'll be a lot more competitive and being a member of a crony clique (i.e. NYU alum, Bridge club, etc) will be essential in keeping one's position along with the work, itself.
Whoops.. Sorry. The Map of Misery in TinyURL
http://tinyurl.com/laz9y
Great article. Here's a link to the story so you don't have to copy/paste.
One point of clarification. The wizards at BW have lumped together an enormous area of Colorado. As I've written many times, the problem with the MSM is that in a rush for headlines to capture the masses it fails to adequately serve local markets with accurate information.
There is no such city as "Denver-Boulder-Greeley", the #5 City for Foreclosures in the Country. If you look within this large region, you'll see tremendous variances in foreclosure rates. Here's what foreclosures in our region really looks like.
holy shit california is going to be a storage dump for depleted uranium IMHO!
Let's grant the tech re-hiring. Do typical tech salaries, even for DINKS, make a $500,000-and-up house affordable? Still a huge of take-home pay. Woe unto them if one does happen to get laid off. Thanks to specuvestors, our hard-working, responsible geek couple has to put dreams of owning a house on hold.
I also know 5 people who went in on a house just last year and it's now back on the market.
Paniced people who bought in at the top and are now panicking to sell what they never could afford in the first place.
Lots of panic out there.
Oh yeah, let me add this:
It was our local newspaper, The Seattle Times, that actually suggested "buying with friends" as a way to buy these unaffordable Seattle homes.
How's that for a helping hand?
Calmly renting-
The pathetic part is when those same newspapers headline the opposite stories and make it look like it was their big idea.
"Do typical tech salaries, even for DINKS, make a $500,000-and-up house affordable? "
Absolutely not!
Only DINK doctors and lawyers can do that because their six figure income streams are stable and don't require so much moving about to keep stable.
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