What year will US housing prices stop going down?
September 12, 2006
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
skip to main |
skip to sidebar
A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
About Me
HP blogs & websites
- AmericaPANIC
- Angry Bear
- Angry Renter
- Bank Implode-O-Meter
- Big Picture
- Blown Mortgage
- boom 2 bust
- Bubble Blog News
- Bubble Markets
- Bubble Meter
- BusinessWeek Hot Property
- Calculated Risk
- Case Shiller Graphs
- Charles Smith
- CNBC Realty Check
- Contrarian Chronicles
- Countrywide Foreclosures
- Deflationland
- Denninger Market Ticker
- Dirty Scottsdale
- Dollar collapse
- Dr. Housing Bubble
- Drudge Report
- Fed Up USA Protest
- Financial Sense
- firedoglake
- Flippers in Trouble
- Foreclosure Data
- Gawker
- Gold equals money blog
- Gold Prices
- High Probability kid
- homegain blog
- Housebubble blog
- Housing Blog Recap
- Housing Bubble Bust
- housing bubble hall of shame
- Housing Doom
- Housing Fear
- Housing Tracker
- Housing Watch Price Tracker
- Housing Wire
- I Can't Sell My House
- Infectious Greed
- Inventory Overload (realtor)
- Irvine housing blog
- itulip
- J-walk blog
- Kitco
- Kunstler
- LA Times Bubble Blog
- LA Westside Bubble
- Lasner on Real Estate (OC)
- Lawrence Yun Watch
- Long Island Bubble
- Marin Bubble
- Media - BusinessWeek
- Media - Financial Times
- Media - New York Times
- Media - News Hounds
- Media - Olbermann Blog
- Media - TV Newser
- Media - Wall Street Journal
- Media Matters
- millionaire mommy
- Mish's Global Economic
- ML Implode-o-Meter
- Moneyfiles Bubble Blog
- Mortgage Fraud Blog
- Mortgage Insider
- Mortgage Ledger
- mortgagefit portal
- My Two Cents Blog
- National Mortgage News
- News: Reddit
- Northern New Jersey Bubble Blog
- NYC bubble
- Paper Economy Blog
- Paranoid Ben's boring blog
- Patrick.net
- PeakOil - Life After the oil crash
- Phoenix Flippers in Trouble
- Piggington
- PIMCO Bill Gross
- Politics - C-Span Videos
- Politics - Dick Morris
- Politics - First Read
- Politics - FreeRepublic GOP Talking Points
- Politics - Huffington
- Politics - Kos
- Politics - Malkin
- Politics - National Journal
- Politics - Politico
- Politics - PoliticsTV.com
- Politics - realclearpolitics.com
- Politics - RedState GOP Talking Points
- Politics - The Note
- Politics - TPM Cafe
- Portland Oregon Bubble
- Prudent Investor
- Ramen Recipes for Realtors
- rancid truth
- Real Clear Politics
- Real Estate & Housing Outlook
- Real Estate Bloggers
- Real Estate Decline
- Redfin.com
- Republicans Are Assholes
- Sacramento Landing
- Scottsdale Sucks
- Seattle Housing Blog
- SlackerRevolution
- SoCal Bubble
- Soot & Ashes - New from HousingPANIC
- Speculative Bubble
- Stocks - Blogging Stocks
- Stocks - Bob Brinker
- Stocks - Cramer Mad Money Videos
- Stocks - DealBreaker
- Stocks - Denninger
- Stocks - Financial Times
- Stocks - Forex expert
- Stocks - I Bank Coin
- Stocks - Market Ticker
- Stocks - Money Week
- Stocks - Motley Fool Caps
- Stocks - Option Addict
- Stocks - Options Trader
- Stocks - Portfolio.com
- Stocks - RealClearMarkets
- Stocks - Seeking Alpha
- Stocks - TheStreet.com
- Stop the Mortgage Bailout
- the greenspan mess
- The Superficial
- Trulia
- Truth about mortgage blog
- UK House Bubble
- Video - Blip Radical TV
- Video - BrassCheckTV
- Video - Countdown
- Video - Fox Business
- Video - Movietone News
- Video - NBC News
- Video: Bloomberg Live
- Video: BNN Bubble News
- Video: C-span Junkie
- Video: CNN Live
- Video: Crooks and Liars
- Video: Daily Show
- Video: Housing Crash TV
- Video: Jim Cramer
- Video: MSNBC
- Video: PBS Frontline
- Video: Peter Schiff EuroPacific
- Video: Politics Videos
- Video: Presidential Debates
- Video: TPMTV
- Vigilant Investor
- Voice of San Diego
- What Bubble?
- Wiki US Bubble
- Zillow.com
- zz HP Mandatory Terms of Use
Blog Archive
- February 2022 (1)
- August 2018 (1)
- November 2016 (1)
- June 2013 (1)
- December 2010 (1)
- November 2008 (22)
- October 2008 (155)
- September 2008 (164)
- August 2008 (141)
- July 2008 (108)
- June 2008 (129)
- May 2008 (128)
- April 2008 (161)
- March 2008 (198)
- February 2008 (168)
- January 2008 (190)
- December 2007 (151)
- November 2007 (132)
- October 2007 (146)
- September 2007 (157)
- August 2007 (143)
- July 2007 (163)
- June 2007 (147)
- May 2007 (153)
- April 2007 (135)
- March 2007 (118)
- February 2007 (147)
- January 2007 (138)
- December 2006 (157)
- November 2006 (154)
- October 2006 (193)
- September 2006 (199)
- August 2006 (182)
- July 2006 (184)
- June 2006 (140)
- May 2006 (200)
- April 2006 (166)
- March 2006 (154)
- February 2006 (105)
- January 2006 (74)
- December 2005 (119)
- November 2005 (132)
20 comments:
2012
2012, I agree
2009 or 2010. Inflation will start to prop up the prices again, after the "froth" is drained like a Guiness going down an Irishman's gullet.
On the road in Washington DC.
Talked with a friend here is is a realtor (ok hiss/boo!). . .actually nice guy - been in the business 20 years. . .he sold his primary residence a few years ago, and rents. His quote "I would like to buy something, but I am concerned that it would go down in value, so I am just renting for a while longer.". . ..there you have it . . the DC market is overbuilt also. . .condos on every corner.
2012 is optimum and will gradually go up, hopefully in line with income. By 2018 - 20, will probably go back to the 2004-05 price level.
To the 2004-05 homeowners with no down payment, you're looking at 15-20 years before you can break even in your "so-called" investment, that is if you can sustain the long and winding road.
I think it is all really hard to say, but this article will give you an interesting story to chew on about how long housing prices went down in Japan:
From financialsense.com
http://tinyurl.com/qfbep
2009-2016
2012
2016, at the earliest.
One simply cannot time a market. All who say they can are lying. All who believe they can are fools. One can only make an educated guess and hope for the best. If that guess turns out to be correct the guesser will be treated as a genius; if that guess turns out to be wrong, the guesser will simply disappear. Those who study trends and render technical evaluations based only on those trends are simply reading the tea leaves. The only way to truly understand a market is to evaluate the worth of an asset in terms of its ability to generate future wealth, i.e. a P/E ratio or something analogous such as a property’s ability to generate rental income relative to its cost of ownership. However, the fact that an asset is overvalued does not tell you when a correction will occur. Houses were over valued in 2002, more so in 2003, much more so in 2004, and much much more so in 2005 however a meaningful correction has still yet to materialize and housing remains overvalued. We cannot even say for certain whether the past 6 months is the beginning of the long-anticipated correction or a temporary slow down. We can only know that housing is over valued and sooner or later prices will fall.
2013-17
:One simply cannot time a market. All who say they can are lying.
So you mean successful traders are liars.
Well, I can... bought gold at 350/oz, three years ago, sold at 660/oz just recently.
Bought BearX in 2002, made 60% that year, sold it in 2003 when the market stabilized.
Bought Lucent put options at $65, covered at $35 during 2000.
Another fund, PSAFX (contra dollar hedge/intl bond market fund) averaged 7% for the past five years.
And I haven't bought an S&P tracker since 2000.
FYI, my only bad trades was when I tried to straddle Lucent during its chopping around a $2-3 per unit. I also tried swingtrading BGO. I lost most of those short term swings but I'm pretty close to perfect on intermediate to long term trades.
That graph is suspect. There is a uptick starting in 2004, then after that the line is cut off. Time to get bullish on Japanese real estate?
Anyhow, for the US, the sooner the better. I'll take a quick swipe to the head over a death of a thousand cuts, thank you.
The housing market should stabilized in the next few months and start to appreciate at a more normal rate of 12% per year.
HHmmm.. looks like a few others know about the signifigance of the year 2012
Successful traders are lucky - not necessarily liars
I guess 2010 -- figure it will take at least as long to come down as it did to go up - what is the significance of 2012 dedesert?
I'm going with 2016, as I see some other economic changes coming then.
"The housing market should stabilized in the next few months..."
Ha-ha-ha. You must be one of the late comers who bought at the peak huh? Come on, don't lie to us. Nothing good is going to come out, if you're just trying to think positive. You really have to have some understanding of the fundamentals or underlying factors.
It will correct itself this year. After all, it will be a soft landing. They are not making land anymore and everyone wants to live in CA. Plus salaries are keeping up. If you dont buy now you will be shut out forever. Rates will go up. As soon as my home goes up another 80k I will soon be able to take out another HELOC for the granite dashboard on my H2. My wife needs to get silicone ass cheeks to go with the tetas. It is the latest.
Post a Comment