What city are you from, and on a scale of 1.0 to 4.0, where does it stand on the HousingPanic Richter Scale?
1.0: No housing problem - we didn't see much of a bubble like everyone else did, or there is no bubble because housing only goes up and up
2.0: Small housing problem - some speculative froth being washed out of system like a good enema
3.0: Big housing problem - flippers and investors really drove prices up, now they're gone, inventory rising, sales dropping, real prices falling, realtors dumpster-diving for dinner
4.0: Massive, horrific, historic, world-ending housing problem: You live in Phoenix. 'Nuff said.
September 02, 2006
HousingPanic Question of the Day
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
70 comments:
dublin 4.0
San Diego: older established neighborhoods, 2.5
San Diego: new developments 3.2
Sacramento CA 3.985628909
Builder 100k off sales
Norfolk VA. around a 2 all the houses around my house have sold.
phoenix 4.0 baby!
Toronto - 2.9
Overbuilding condos and crappy cardboard looking townhomes like they expect the population to double or something. The jobs here sure as hell aren't doubling.
West Chester, PA (15 miles west of Philly) - 2.0 - notice that specific for sale signs have been on dislay for months.
Martha's Vineyard, MA
3.0 going to 4.0.
Indiana:
Almost no runup in prices, but foreclosures are high and increasing and inventory is high. So, the lack of flippers and price run up won't save us. In fact, foreclosures are high (already) because of the lack of a runup.
Irvine Ca. 3 if your talking realtors. 2 with the general public.
I can't believe how many people here have no idea what is going on with the market.
I was at a party last weekend, and had a neighbor try to bust my balls about it. Well, I ran down the numbers, and, told him where to look on the web.
On Wed. two houses on my block went up for sale! They both were bought about 1 1/2 years ago.
These to couples must has been listening.
Chicago area: 2.7 but headed much lower. There is a tremendous amount of inventory on the market and sales seem to be off 30 - 40% in most markets (for new homes). I believe we have not hit bottom yet - this fall should be very interesting.
Miami Beach: 3.0 going to 4.0. New condo inventory exploding due to speculators. Houses are being affected by overall inventory, but their owners are in denial.
Fort Collins, CO
2.666667
Record Inventory,
Drastic reductions,
people are still buying albeit at slower rates.
Orlando, Florida 2
Spec condos and high rise rental communities still going up up up in downtown, although some projects have been canceled. Sales have stalled, but not stopped, prices down by an average of $5000.00 in lowest 25% and $25,000.00 in the top 25%, according to TRACKER. But Developers and Flippers are still here. "Affordable housing" is the next BIG niche, according to a friend of ‘mine in the know’.
People I talk to are aware but doubtful anything earth shattering will happen here. All a bunch of Polly Annas.
The Copious amounts of Orlando Sentinel Developer Advertisements are giving away everything but the kitchen sink to entice buyers to purchase their “Single Family Rich” or “Little Boxes of Air in the Sky”, but have not come off of their asking prices.
Still much International 2nd home/vacation home business.
Hotel occupancy down 8%.
phx
Tampa 2.6
Plenty affordable for median buyer if you take out an option ARM, but the oversupply in the further suburbs is a killer.
West Virginia is not on the scale.
san diego 2.8 to 3.5 varies by area of course
Location, Location!
Edmonton Canada
1.0 if the priced doubling in 5 years is truly part of the oil boom, or
4.0 if the shit hitting the fan spreads to here.
Prices still skyrocketing here.
Tampa 3.5
- There is a 9mo inventory of homes on the market and growing.
- Prices have doubled in the past 5 years.
- Now sales are down %45 from year ago.
- Homes are no longer affordable the workers making average incomes.
london 10.0
can we go that high?
I pad $116 for my house in 2004. two doors down a new house was built on a vacant lot. Much smaller thn mine. Sold for $235. Was only on the marrket for 2 months. Considering he said screw market value this is what I'm selling it for. I would say that's pretty good.
Per your twist of the story. This was a home builder that sold for $15,000 below his asking price.
Bottom line is. THERE ARE BETTER OPTIONS TO RENTING. Put aside your raciest views and move next door to a Mexcan or black man. Sure crime a bit higher when you have black folks in the neighborhood. A kid raise by a black woman to grow up with a black person values stoled my $125 mower. A much smaller price to pay than what you raciest renters pay to rent in your white suburbia.
just moved from a dink town in Iowa: 1
moved to Phoenix Valley: 4
.
.
.
.
.
Oooops... gotta go!
Suzanne is calling with a "special listing" for us: priceless!!
The fact that my wife laughs even harder at... and is more disgusted by that video than me is beyond priceless!!! I love my wife! :-)
realtors dumpster-diving for dinner
classic
Los Alamos NM,
2.0 going on 3.
Lots of inventory from when
we had the cerro grande fire.
Every one turned their small
lot into 4 town homes.
Prices seem to be falling
in the 20-30k range.
Sante Fe, the Santa Barbara of
New Mexico is falling much harder
I understand.
-El Maha
atlanta is 1.0. Inventory is well below normal levels with homes selling on average 30 days. Outlying areas may be at 2.0 but prices are low and inventory again below normal levels. No bubble here.
frank-- WV has many markets, don't know where you are, but around D.C. exurbs, Harper's Ferry, Charles Town & out to Martinsburg, there's been massive development, and inventories are high.
I'm not far from there, in MD exurbs -I'd give it a 2.0, maybe a smidge higher, definitely poised for a spike: high inventory, sales in doldrums. Local trades/construction types grumbling
about slow work, and sadly, getting laid-off. Local Lowe's & Home Depot not "crickets", but noticeably quiet, lots of close parking spaces.
Lowell Ma.
Inventory very high around this city, and nothiing moving as far as i can see.
Iowa-prices stayed on historic price line-1% plus inflation.Some cities have new construction specs by builders hurting the market. The State is a .5 except for the people who bought new in the last 2-3 years . By the time they figure in costs of sale[taxes + realtor] they are upside down by about 5-10%
Washington, DC 3.0
I believe the only question now would be the extent of the damage for the country as a whole. The local markets (Phoenix, Las Vegas, East Coast urban centers, CA, and Florida) are being hit the hardest with the greatest declines (all those incentives are at least 5% to 15% of the selling price)! However, when the declines can no longer be hidden in the incentive prices (20% and higher), the FED will ease rates. I believe we should see easing in the first quarter FY 2008. While the FED does look at all US data, Mr. Bernanke may be most influenced by what happens in the DC area. The condo developments are still going but I cannot see who is actually buing other owners who want to rent. The rents are too low to compensate an owner for the cost of purchase. Rents need to be 20% higher or prices 20% lower to be in equilibrium. A conundrum indeed!
San Diego is a 4, but half the people think 3.
I know someone that lowballed a condo builder in Carmel Valley with a wild mix of outrageous terms and and conditions and they accepted it! And condos downtown are already selling for 15%-35% less than they were a year ago according to a blog that publishes links to the tax assessor's site to prove it, but as usual the MSM's reporting of it is about 6 months to a year behind reality, hence the 3 rating.
I now also have co-workers and relatives who openly talk so matter of factly that when their loan adjusts they're just going to deed the house over to the bank because they can't afford it, as if they are returning something borrowed.
Everything has changed, even the psychology of how people view all this. For there to be so many REO and defaults this early in the mortgage resets means we are headed for a mild depression, not a recession : (
Oakland, CA 2.5
San diego 3 to 3.5 with heavy denial!
PHX solid 3.5 or higher, denial with onset fear, panic!
Thanks to blogs like this and books like 'Sell now. End of the housing boom', I saw the sheat hitting the fan last year. I was thinking of selling my primary residence in RIVERSIDE, CA (4.0 on the crash scale) and cashing out over 200k about 4 months ago. I procrastinated and now theres about 3 homes on my block sitting no bites. Too late. I am pissed. Only consolations I have are I have a fixed 30 year under 6% and I bought pre-buuble price and I just got a 20% raise at work. I am stuck in this sheat hole of RIVERSIDE, CA.
Pensacola east to Panama, Large inventory, Condo's, sfr's, second, third homes, vacation rentals!
Denial evident by High prices and inventories!
Naples 3.?
I woudl have said higher in San Diego, but the POS next door to me just sold for $725k, and caused the Zillow curve to jump *UP*. WTF?
This is in Clairemont/Bay Park.
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?city=SAN+DIEGO+&o=North&state=CA&zprop=16925702
3593 Ethan Allen Ave, San Diego, CA 92117
Comparables in June/July of this year are:
$661k$, $620K, $700K, $718K, $505K
With $/sqft between $382 and $742.
These are actual sales, not asking, according to Zillow at least.
I don't get it.
Just north of Washington, DC: 3.0, possibly higher.
Flight to Baltimore jacked up prices in areas convenient for commuting.
Prices still slowly rising in Texas due to all of the refugees from California. There's too much land available here for flippers though. Plus the property taxes will kill any maniacal run-up in prices.
Denver:
within 1 mile of downtown: 1.5
Adams county and Aurora (east and NE suburbs): 4
everything else: 2.5 - 3.0
Denver prices ran up 1998-2000, then for the most part have stagnated
we would have cratered 3 years ago except for Big Al's funny money extravaganza
Just went (Aug 27 to 31) to Texas from Calif. to look at homes.
Lots of inventory, lots of property (acreage) but it's true, prop. taxes and city taxes kinda even out the no state tax.
Just down the street from me a POS which once had BARS on the windows was sold and flipped(!) for $800+ k.
My POS was overpriced at $270 in 2000, when I got it.
South Central PA:
2.5 - Yet still in the denial phase. The more the sellers refuse to adjust to true market prices, the uglier it will get. The hardest hit is def. the Marylanders who moved right over the PA border. Guess what happens is somewhat dependant on the Maryland market which is dependant on the DC market (like mentioned above).
South Florida 4.0
Condos will depreciate 80% (back to their 2000-2001 prices. Single family homes will fair better because many are the same prices as smaller single family homes.
Typo. What I meant to say is that some condos in S. Fla. are selling for the same prices as single family homes. The condos will fare worse.
Extended families will have to learn to live together under one roof again. Maybe we'll see a return of family values again.
Scottsdale, AZ
4.2 (Is that even possible?)
Pittsburgh, PA: 2.0
No speculators here (d'uh), but inventory has been slowly building, sales really slow. Occasional signs of folks thinking they live in the O.C.
Clearwater, Florida (Tampa Bay): Pinellas, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Manatee Counties.
I'd say our area is in the 3.0 - 3.5 range. Not a complete melt-down, but a large crash is definitely starting to happen.
If I were to guess, I'd say the crash is the worst in Pinellas and Hillsborugh Counties. I live in Pinellas, and I can see it's very bad here. I work in Tampa, which is Hillsborugh County, and it looks almost as bad there.
-Dragasoni-
I am astounded at the huge amount of Denial and the reasoning behind it!
Where? Anywhere and everywhere! So cal especially
Pressure to buy, from your spouse or 'life partner', realtor, etc., aside, is never a good reason to buy, ever!
Portland, OR: 3.67
CA equity migration soon to go kaput with Intel slashing jobs and the Boomer demographic drag setting in for buy-up properties.
Realtors turned flippers in late '04 or early '05, selling to each other at Greater-Fool prices, which spelled the beginning of the end; it was only a matter of time; time is now.
Besides, it rains here ALL THE TIME, there are earthquakes and volcanoes, the beaches are windy and cold, strange people who ride bicycles in the rain and snow, and people who drink too much coffee and microbrew, so you wouldn't like it; it's so depressing. Stay away!!!
Los angeles between 2.5 and 3.5 depending on location. Dwtn area 2.5
Coastal eclaves/westside 3
Innnor run-down areas 2.5
outer LA county burbs 2.5
north LA county 3.5
hi-desert la county 3.8
SFvalley 2.5 -3.0
south bay 2.8-3.3
long beach 3.0
people, please, there is no such word as "alot"; this is illiterate. "A lot" is the proper usage.
you would not believe how many so-called college-educated people still do this. Well, if you use "alot", perhaps you will believe it.
it used to be said that the worst kind of ignornace is when a person doesn't know that they're ignorant. well, now you know, so, please, stop.
Seattle 2.7 and trending upward -- real prices not yet falling, some realtors are in denial but not all of them. Still able to borrow frugality books from the library without having to place them on hold.
Not a 3 yet because the houses in my zipcode (Seattle) are selling within a week of listing.
Regarding WV, it's hard to tell how bad things are with real estate in that state. For starters, the BUSINESS WEEK article said that through Mar. 31 of this year, at least 51% of mortgages in West Virginia were option ARMs. West Virginia isn't exactly a hive of industry and if a person loses his/her job, it's difficult to find a new one. I wonder how many of these option ARM owners are going to end up in foreclosure....
Austin, TX - 1.0 (except for the part about houses ALWAYS going up in value). Values have actually been making healthy increases here the past year, and are forecast to continue rising for the next year or so. However, we were not part of the huge bubble market that affected other areas from 2000-2005. Many of those moving here are from California and Arizona. Those lucky enough to have escaped those areas are finding they can get much more house, for CASH, and still have money left over from their bubble area. They offer full asking price, and seem surprised when they get the house for that without getting into a bidding war. This is actually a healthy market, for now.
Nobody here believes houses only go up in value, since we have been victim to TWO nasty bear markets during the past two decades. The 1980s oil bust was devastating, as the entire Texas economy was dependent on oil revenues then. Remember the Resolution Trust Corporation? Then in 2000, Austin experienced a tech bust with the Nasdaq collapse. Since Austin is home to so much high tech, many young twenty-somethings who felt rich purchased mansions, qualifying with their stock options. When those became worthless and they realized they were not really rich they abandoned those homes and the area. We are only now recovering from that.
lol Keith really hates phoenix doesn't he
Columbus, GA 1.0
No bubble really. Had non-real estate related job growth, but still a hick town.
3/2 on 1 acre for 150-160K, brick nice house, not a POS. 1 acre min (2 on new construction) in county.
Housing prices up about 40% in the past 8 years. That's it.
Norwalk, CT (1 hour train to NYC)
Bought my POS condo for $80,000 in '94 and sold in January for $310,000.
3.0
SCOTTSDALE
Cave Creek/Chandler Az. 3.999
When The Bubble Bursts……What Will I Need?
August 31, 2006
Bill Thrush
Imagine that the world has suddenly turned upside down. With what little gasoline you have left in your car, you're driving around looking for someplace to buy food. Everything is closed. Even the convenience stores that are normally open round the clock are closed. Some of them have broken windows and people are dashing out with whatever food they can carry. The grocery stores have armed guards and the doors are locked. Gas stations are closed and abandoned. Just yesterday everything was normal. You got $200.00 out of the ATM at the mall. Today, the ATMs that have not been destroyed and emptied of all cash are not working.
Deciding to give up any hope of finding food, you turn down a side street to turn around and go home. As you come around a bend, there is a small group of men with guns….all pointed at you. Before you know what's happening, you are dragged from your car and relieved of your watch, wallet and all jewelry. Your car is searched and your flashlight is taken, as is all the loose change in the ash tray. You are kicked a few times and sent on your way, unhurt but terrified. You drive straight home, only to find your front door kicked in and a few of your neighbors in your house. Once again you are held at gunpoint while every morsel of edible food in your house is loaded into trash bags and carried off. Your one means of protection, a 38 caliber pistol that you've had for years, is tucked into the waist band of the guy that used to lend you his lawnmower. He is very apologetic, telling you that it's now the survival of the fittest. People that you do not know are walking freely through your house as you sit on the floor with a man pointing a rifle at your head. You are helpless to stop them. Eventually, they finish searching and carry off anything and everything they feel will be of value in the future. As soon as they leave, you run to the phone to call 911, only to find out the phone is dead. You suddenly realize that you are on your own, with no help, with no means to protect yourself or your family……and you have nothing to eat and no way to get something to eat.
This scenario, or one like it, will be played out for millions of Americans in the not-so-distant future. The world is poised for a financial collapse that will occur overnight and without warning for the vast majority of the population. Oh sure, there were people talking about it. Business failures were at an all-time high, but they say the economy is good. Even General Motors was in trouble, but they say the economy is good. “But this is America. The government will figure out something. They always have”……they say. Not this time. This collapse will be global, impacting all countries in about a 30 hour window of time. It has been planned for years and is quite easy to achieve if you're in control of the stock markets. It will most likely start in Japan, sweep through the European stock market within hours and probably prevent the U.S. stock markets from opening the following day. All banks will be closed. You will be left with what you have on hand, both in cash and goods. Your credit cards and debit cards will be worthless, as will any dollar bills you may have. Nothing will be open. Looting and pillaging will be the only means to obtain goods. Gun shots will be frequent. Men will prey on their neighbors. Rape and murder will become the national pass-time. Sounds impossible? It's much closer than you think.
How do you prevent this from happening to yourself and your family? It takes planning. It takes knowledge. It takes preparation. Leave out any of these three items and you will find yourself a victim of something like has been described in the opening paragraphs. We won't get into the how's and why's of all this. From this point on we will discuss preparation.
The most important commodity will be food. You have it, you live……it's that simple. People will kill for it. Think about it for a second. If your family is starving and you have a gun…..and you know that the guy next door has food and does not have a gun, how long will you allow your family to starve before you walk next door and get some food? Sure, you'll try the friendly approach at first and ask for some food. What if he says no…..and you have a gun in your pocket……and crying children a few feet away? Could you do it? Would you do it? Eventually you would, hopefully without violence, but you would. And it wouldn't take that long to get there. Scary thought, huh? If you're honest with yourself, you know you would take his food……at gun point, if necessary. Acquisition of food will be the number one cause of death. People will kill you over a can of tuna. Plan on providing one meal a day for each member of your group for a minimum of a year. You can also farm, fish and hunt to provide additional food. Don't forget that bartering will become very popular and that some people have been preparing for years and will be able to trade goods that you need for goods that they need.
Remember, the most basic of life's simple pleasures will not be available. Unless you prepare, electricity will be non-existent, hot water will be found only on camp fires. Batteries for flashlights, radios, etc. will not be found at all. Consider solar power. Consider rechargeable batteries (from solar power). Forget about running a generator. Where would you get the fuel? What about the noise?
Next on the list of items to have is guns and ammunition. They are pretty much worthless unless you have both. Most gun owners have a pistol, a shotgun and maybe a hunting rifle. They will have less than 100 rounds of ammunition between all three weapons. This will get them through the first week…..if they have food, that is. By the way, ammunition will become money. You will be able to barter for items you need with just a few bullets or shotgun shells. Those that prepare and have ammo to trade will be alright. Just make sure that you trade with people looking to protect their property rather than those that plan to prey on others. If you do not have guns, soon you will have nothing. If you have the means to protect yourself, chances are good that you'll be far better off once the collapse occurs.
What guns will you need? That's mainly a question of economics. If you are financially able to have a hand gun for all members of your family capable of using one, plus a spare or two, that would be excellent. They should be of the same caliber or maybe two different calibers at most. The best would be 9mm since it packs a good wallop, but can be managed by women without a problem. You may want to have a .40 Smith & Wesson (.40S&W) on hand for the men. While .22 caliber ammo will be very valuable for trading, it is of very little use to hold off the bad guys. As of the writing of this (January 1, 2006), a box of 500 .22 bullets can be purchased anywhere for under $15.00……so buy several thousand rounds. You'll be very glad you did later. The 9mm ammo will be about $100.00 per 500, but that is still a bargain. You'll need several thousand rounds of this as well…….for shooting and trading. Remember, there will be lots of good people out there that will need a little help. Maybe they'll have plenty of canned vegetables but be short on ammo. You can help each other by trading.
There is no better weapon for home defense than a 12-gauge shotgun. Get a good one. Get more than one if you can afford it. I'd recommend the Mossberg 590, which holds 8 shells, has excellent sights, holds up well and has a quite frightening appearance. The Mossberg 500 would also be a good choice (holds 5 shells). Outfit it with a good 3-point sling, a shell holder for extra shells, night sights…….and make sure it has a rifled slug barrel. With practice, you can hit a target with a 12-gauge slug (and a good scope) at 120 yards. For close in, use 00 buck shot. Bad guys are very afraid of shotguns. Shotgun shells are also cheap, so buy plenty. These will also be highly sought after for bartering……especially slugs and 00 buck shot, although game shot and general loads will be needed as well for hunting.
Rifles will come in very handy to discourage bad guys from a distance and for hunting. In general, they should have scopes and bipods to greatly improve your marksmanship. Make sure they are magazine fed and semi-automatic (sometimes called “auto re-loaders”).
The most common rifle will be the .223 caliber (NATO 5.56mm….same thing). This is a very capable round, but has limited knock-down power past 300 yards or so. It is easily managed by women, lighter to carry and cheaper to feed. Lots of people will have them, so bullets will be available and those that plan ahead will have an outstanding bartering commodity. The best .223 rifle for the money is the Ruger Mini-14. With a good scope, they can be had new for roughly $800 and used in the $500 range. Have plenty of high capacity magazines on hand (20-rounds works best, but 30-round models of good quality are great as well). Have about 2,000 rounds of ammo on hand. This is an excellent choice for the females in your clan. For upscale .223 rifles, look at the AR-15. This is made by many manufacturers and prices vary greatly. Get the A4 (flat top) version for the best scope mounting (the A2 puts the scope very high and is not as easy to properly aim). Look at products by Armalite, Colt, Rock River and others. This is an assault style rifle. You can find these used with incredible accessories in your local trading post newspaper. Expect a properly outfitted AR-15 to cost $2,000 new and roughly half that amount used…….with nice accessories like bipod already mounted, good scopes, flash suppressors, special stocks, etc. Buy it used if possible.
Next in the rifle hierarchy is the 7.62mm…..excellent accuracy and performance. More expensive….and worth it. The same outfitting and manufacturers can be found for the 7.62. You can't tell them apart from the .223 from a distance, but when you shoot it you'll know. After that comes the .308……much more expensive to feed…..much greater accuracy at distance……much heavier to carry…….not for the average woman. Get a good scope and hits out to 600 yards and beyond are not out of the question. Some people prefer the 30-06 over the .308. Both are excellent. It's a matter of personal preference. The .308 is generally considered as more of an assault caliber and they have better accessories for the .308 rifle.
There are numerous other calibers….243, 270, 7mm, 300……all hunting calibers. All very accurate, but will not be as common. Many rifles that use these calibers are bolt-action……not adequate to meet the need if a semi-auto rifle can be had, but certainly better than nothing.
Ideally, you'll need a place of refuge, way out in the country. Make no mistake, you cannot stay in an urban or suburban area (think back to what happened in New Orleans in 2005). Some rural areas will be OK, but what you want is wilderness. The further out in the wilderness, the better. Paved roads are not the answer. Tree-less areas should be avoided. Mountains are preferred. Water in the area would be very helpful. If you have a place of refuge, it completely changes your preparation requirements. You should have secure storage where you can store your food and weapons at the refuge. You won't be able to haul everything there on short notice…..and short notice will be all you get. It should be relatively close by. If you'll need more than one tank of gas to get there, make sure you have gasoline on hand. You won't be able to get it on the way once the bubble bursts (always keep your gas tank nearly full).
A place of refuge gives you a place to go, a place to store and a peace of mind. It's a nice place to spend the weekend until the bubble bursts. You can make your preparations calmly. Keep buying food, weapons and ammo until you can no longer get them. It has to be a place that you can defend…..not a valley where the bad guys can get above you and shoot you at a distance so they can have all you've prepared for. Make it so they have to walk in. Block all approaching roads and fire warning shots. Remember, there will be others looking for a place of refuge. They will need some assistance. Have a few tents on hand and some food you can give out. Approach any situation concerning desperate strangers with caution. There will be well organized groups that will use women and children to deceive people and gain their confidence, only to report to the bad guys where the weaknesses are and how best to attack. The best thing to do is to provide them with a meal or two (that they can take with them) and any other urgent need and tell them to move on. You will not be able to provide continual support for all refugees that pass your way. Do not let them inside your camp. Do not let them see what you have stored. Give out very little information. Let them know that if they come back you will consider them hostile. It won't be easy to turn people away that have nothing, but you have provided them with some assistance and bought them time to figure out a plan for themselves.
If a permanent place of refuge with adequate storage and shelter is financially out of the question, consider burying some of your supplies in a remote area and making your way there as required. You should know the area well……maybe go camping there once a month or so. Have camping gear on hand……maybe even a camping trailer. A trailer will provide excellent shelter for the long term. A shelter can also be built from trees and other items found in the woods. Tarps would help. Think ahead. Know what you need on hand. Know what you want on hand. Make your preparations. Plan for the worst. Help those you can. Expect help from nobody. Prepare for the long haul, because things will never be the same. You will not ever get to go back to your house. You will live on food that you have stored, grow, hunt or trade for.
Another important (and expensive) consideration is having night vision equipment. Without it, you can see the bad guys only half the time at best. A night vision scope on a rifle can greatly increase your chances of overcoming a night attack, which is when the smart bad guys will be showing up. Once they figure out that you can see them….they'll move on……minus a few members of their group, no doubt. Basic night vision costs about $750.00, and the upper end units can cost thousands. In general, a generation 2+ scope will be sufficient to see 150 yards in nearly complete darkness and will cost about $1,500.00. This will allow you to place the bad guys on notice that you have night vision capability and to proceed would not be in their best interest. The most successful looters will be a small group (3 at the most) and will move about and attack only at night. They may or may not have night vision of their own. Assume that they will. If they are approaching your camp at night and moving cautiously in a military manner, make every shot count. This type of looter does not rate a warning shot. Keep shooting as long as they are visible. They are likely long time friends and will not take kindly to your “group reduction” activities. Get them all and they can't come back the next night with more friends. They will also have some pretty good weapons and equipment with them that will become yours by default (you're still alive). Another good reason to invest in a night vision scope is for hunting. A deer that happens by at 2 A.M. while you're watching for bad guys would be a nice addition to your food supply. You should consider a night vision scope as indispensable and a night vision monocular as a great asset.
As your finances allow, buy precious metals. This will be the only real money around. While you can partially depend on ammunition for bartering, it would be nice to eventually return to some form of a normal life. The only way this is going to happen is to have purchasing power…..silver and gold……on hand to buy that country house with solar power and a well. A house that sells for $150,000 today could probably be bought for $10,000 in silver at some point. Precious metals will greatly increase in value when it's the only money around. Silver that can be bought today for less than $9.00 per ounce will be worth $200.00 or more. So….silver that can be bought now for $450.00 will buy you a (present day value) $150,000 house in the future. Not a bad investment.
You also need to plan for getting over-run……forced out of your place of refuge……by military organizations or well-trained groups of looters. Have some supplies buried a good distance away. Hide a shovel under a fallen tree so you'll be able to get your buried supplies out of hiding. Have a rifle with ammo, tent, food, sleeping bags, silver or gold, change of clothes, etc. Triple bag it in trash bags with insect spray between the outer and second bags to keep the bugs out. This will buy you some time to get re-established elsewhere.
Basically, you need to make a plan and carry it out. Don't listen to the nay-Sayers that will tell you that you're crazy if you think this could really happen. It will happen. Let them worry about where their next meal is coming from as they walk around and think about your warnings to prepare. You'll be in warm clothes sitting on a bench watching over your property with plenty of ammo and snacks within your reach. You'll be a victor, rather than a victim. Your family will be safe while theirs is in peril.
Remember…….you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him think!!!
That guy has a stockpile of food stuffs, and he's charging 1oz. of gold for a loaf of bread.
Another has a huge pile of gold.
Which one wins?
Food has a shelf life, and ya can't eat gold!
Enter me with a loaded pistol of any type....i'm fat happy and rich!
Boston, 4.0!
Did not say I believed it. I am just sharing it. LMFAO
Rockford Ill. .075 cause knowbody wants to live here if they had a choice!
Minneapolis 2.5. Inventory way up (40%) but houses still selling albeit a little slower. Economy is solid and jobs growing. But lead time and inventory will eventually turn this to a 3 by winter.
Vancouver BC, we're at level 3. The real estate evangelists are still preaching the gospel"it's different here" .With 40 to 50 % appreciation in the last 4 years we are seing declines in sales (numbersof units) 25 to 30% for the last two months.Listings are up ,prices not declining yet as it hasn't sunk in that the "house" isn't worth what you been led to believe.
Hopefully the 17,000 new realtors in the area will find real jobs at the local fast food outlet.
Albuquerque, NM -- 2.5 Inventory building and prices flattening out.
Post a Comment