HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with an Attitude Problem, 2005 - 2008: BUBBLETALK

September 03, 2006

BUBBLETALK - August archive thread

334 comments:

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Roccman said...: Hey Keith and Anon - another or your ilk supports your views.

We are fast approaching the point of no return.
http://www.townhall.com/columnists/ThomasSowell/2006/08/22/point_of_no_return

Point of no return?
By Thomas Sowell
Tuesday, August 22, 2006; August 23, 2006 5:06 PM
blogger said...: richard - go find a good 9/11 conspiracy blog - this one ain't it; August 23, 2006 6:05 PM
Anonymous said...: Yahoo poll of the day: On housing.. Please go and vote! www.yahoo.com scroll down to bottom of page; August 23, 2006 9:01 PM
Roccman said...: "richard - go find a good 9/11 conspiracy blog - this one ain't it"

LMAO -

You bet Keith - appears this blog represents the best way for you and your kind to stroke yourselves.

Connecting dots?? - GMAFB

What's up Keith - can't handle the truth?

UR a joke.; August 23, 2006 9:50 PM
Anonymous said...: The upside of RE crash: Not having every conversation be about housing price appreciation, listening to people brag. It's disgusting.

And yeah, I rent and am bitter that this country has somehow turned something as necessary as shelter into an elitist, greed-soaked pursuit. American Dream? more like American Nightmare.; August 24, 2006 2:07 AM
Anonymous said...: In LA county, houses are still selling above $500,000. In Phoenix, they are still selling above $300,000. It is still way over price.

Where is the crash everyone here is talking about? I need facts not BS!; August 24, 2006 4:09 AM
Anonymous said...: Las Vegas, NV $334,900* -6100 (1.79%)
Los Angeles, CA $609,950 -15049 (2.41%)
New York, NY $650,000 -5000 (0.76%)
Phoenix, AZ $339,000* -10900 (3.12%)
Riverside, CA $475,000 -5000 (1.04%)
Sacramento, CA $379,999* -15001 (3.80%)
San Diego, CA $510,000 -10000 (1.92%)
San Francisco, CA $739,000 +112 (0.02%)
San Jose, CA $699,000 -20950 (2.91%)

Freaking Big Deal, up 200% and down 3 %.; August 24, 2006 4:15 AM
Anonymous said...: Anon 4:09:31,

There is no BS about it. The FACT however, is that you're ignorant and clueless. You don't have a slightest understanding of the underlying fundamentals. Housing affordability is primarily based on income and interest rate. If there's a huge gap between house price and income, one has to give. Either there will be a huge increase in salary to catch up with the house prices or house prices will have to drop. The bottom line is that the gap must be narrowed.

Going back to what your saying now and apparently confused about is that some prices are relatively flat or maybe higher based on the last sale (mid 2005). Also, the houses you are referring to (i.e. LA County & Phoenix) may have been bought 3 or 4 years ago, at $150k less than the last sale at the peak. Therefore these sellers have still room to play. As inventory grows, so as the pressure on these prices.; August 24, 2006 5:32 AM
Anonymous said...: “‘Increasingly, sellers also have stopped actively looking for homes until they have reached agreement on the sale of their own home,’ he noted in explaining the more moderate sales pace during July.”
Quote from Massachusetts REA

Something I haven't seen mentioned (sorry if I missed it somewhere) which will also contribute to acceleration of falling real estate prices: Many home owners are trading in one home for another, be it a step up, sideways, or down. As long as they are not significantly upsidedown on their mortgage their inertia to selling for less will be weakened when they can also buy for less.

Hopefully sellers are becoming aware of this.; August 24, 2006 7:11 AM
Anonymous said...: Anon 7:11: Your observation is a very good one, and I recall seeing such comments on the Housing Bubble Blog. Can't recall seeing it here. But it's very true -- there are already many stories of people who are paying mortgages on 2 houses because the market turned while they went out to buy a place before they sold their own place.; August 24, 2006 10:58 AM
Anonymous said...: And if the seller's new home is in a non-bubble area, smaller, downsized, and the people are comfortable with their payments AND their first home is owned outright and pre-bubble they can afford to sit on it almost forever
and never drop their price until the situation justs gets old and boring.; August 24, 2006 3:49 PM
Anonymous said...: THE FACTS:

(1) Houses are still over price.
(2) Sales are slowing.
(3) NO housing crash pricewise.
(4) The point is that if I bought a house 3 years ago @ $350K and it is selling at $650K, it may go down to $500-$550K. IT WILL NEVER SEE $350K EVER, LET ALONE $250K.; August 24, 2006 6:30 PM
Anonymous said...: I'm so sick and tired of the b*llshit terminology being foisted upon us by the real estate shills and the media. Sure, it's a business that has historically shoveled BS by the ton... but we need to start calling it for what it is. So of course the realtwhores can claim that real estate never goes down- it merely "moderates."

I would like to propose an official Housing Panic Dictionary starting with the following terms and definitions:

-Adjusting market: Market is tanking.

-Moderating market: Inventory is increasing, prices are declining.

-Normalizing prices: Prices are going down.

-Normalizing inventory: record high sales inventory

-Fragile market: Market is about to be pricked like the bubble that it is.

-Softening market: Prices are down.

-Realistic pricing: Prices reduced to at or below 2003 prices.

-Challenging market: Nothing is selling.

-Buyers market: Sellers are desperate; prices are declining.

-Vulnerable market: The decline in prices has already begun.

-Historically low interest rates: Rates have skyrocketed since 2003.

-Incentives: Bribes utilized by desperate sellers and desperate realtwhores to unload overpriced POSs.; August 24, 2006 6:49 PM
Anonymous said...: Anon 6:30:24,

COMMENTS:

1.) Items 1 & 2: I agree.
2.) Item 3: Be specific! 29%, 30%, 40%.

3.) Item 4: Be factual! If the price drops to 500k and is relative to income in that are, then yes - that price will hold. However, if the average income in a particular area subject to this debate, can only afford to buy a 400k at the current interest rate, then it can drop to that price. How can you sell if no one buys? Keep it mind that the subject of this debate is that "MUST SELL" and not want to sell. There's a big difference.

Except for items 1 & 2, you don't have the FACTS. Instead, it's illusion coupled with DENIAL.; August 24, 2006 7:27 PM
Anonymous said...: Ok, we can all agree on the coming recession, housing market free fall, etc.

But the real question is: How will this affect the $ I rake in off the online poker donks?; August 24, 2006 8:12 PM
Anonymous said...: " THE FACTS:

(1) Houses are still over price.
(2) Sales are slowing.
(3) NO housing crash pricewise.
(4) The point is that if I bought a house 3 years ago @ $350K and it is selling at $650K, it may go down to $500-$550K. IT WILL NEVER SEE $350K EVER, LET ALONE $250K."

Never know ... big news from Australia now is that foreclosed homes are auctioning from 40% to even 48% off the price they were bought at.; August 24, 2006 9:28 PM
Anonymous said...: Australia Crash

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/housing-crash-puts-sellers-in-debt-crisis/2006/08/20/1156012414995.html; August 24, 2006 9:31 PM
Anonymous said...: " said...

IT WILL NEVER SEE $350K EVER, LET ALONE $250K."
~
Never say never. "

Oh yeah! It will never drop from 700 to 350 but it will go up agian to 900. Because Suzanne fucking said so!!!; August 24, 2006 11:38 PM
Anonymous said...: "3.) Item 4: Be factual! If the price drops to 500k and is relative to income in that are, then yes - that price will hold. However, if the average income in a particular area subject to this debate, can only afford to buy a 400k at the current interest rate, then it can drop to that price. How can you sell if no one buys? Keep it mind that the subject of this debate is that "MUST SELL" and not want to sell. There's a big difference.

Except for items 1 & 2, you don't have the FACTS. Instead, it's illusion coupled with DENIAL. "

-- NO, I AM NOT IN DENIAL.
-- I CAN EASILY LIQUIDATE MY LA PROPERTY TODAY AT $600K. THERE WOULD BE MULTIPLE OFFERS!
-- YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT THE FUTURE, NOT TODAY! IT HAS NOT CRASHED!
-- CALL ME WHEN IT DROPS TO $350K, I WOULD BUY BLIND FOLDED!
-- YOU ARE ALL IN DENIAL COZ YOU FREAKING MISS THE BUYING OPPORTUNITIES 3 YEARS AGO!
-- THE CHANCES OF OSAMA STRIKING USA AGAIN IS 1,000,000% MORE LIKELY THAN A 40-50% CUT IN LA'S MEDIUM HOUSE PRICES!
-- CAN I SAY "SOUR GRAPES"!; August 25, 2006 12:41 AM
Anonymous said...: http://tinyurl.com/fq3m9

check out this flipper in trouble; August 25, 2006 1:23 AM
Anonymous said...: I just got a letter from Ameriquest today offering their many loan products and I quote:” The opportunity has never been better! Interest rates are still low, while homes are continuing to hold their value. So you may have more equity in your home than you know."
I thought these yo-yos were reining it in. I guess not!
Opportunity to what, commit hara-kiri? Interest rates are low compared to 20 years ago, sure. Compared to the last 5, no way!
And exactly what VALUE are homes continuing to hold?????
Nice to see these guys's going down swinging (the B.S. that is, or should that be slinging?); August 25, 2006 1:33 AM
Anonymous said...: BABOONTALK - New thread to BS about the epic housing crash; August 25, 2006 1:37 AM
Anonymous said...: Anon 12:41:59,

"I can easily liquidate my LA property today at $600k. There would be multiple offers."

Why don't you do it now. The longer you wait, the more you're gonna get f'cked - trust me. Until you sell it for what you're bragging about, you're in ILLUSION and can turn into PANIC, & ultimately DESPONDENCY.

"You are all in denial coz you freaking missthe buying opportunities 3 years ago!"

First, I didn't miss anything because I know what I want in life and it's not one of those you mentioned.

Second, there was nothing missed as it never was an opportunity. It was a TRAP that you will be stuck for the next 10 years.

Third, you may have been one of David Lereah's avid fan.

Fourth, I really feel sorry for you. Better luck next time. Always remember this; "Life is not a race, but a journey to be savored each step of the way."; August 25, 2006 1:37 AM
Anonymous said...: "- YOU ARE ALL IN DENIAL COZ YOU FREAKING MISS THE BUYING OPPORTUNITIES 3 YEARS AGO!"
That comment right there SCREAMS denial. You 1/2 ass mother F-er, you should at least have gone all the way and said 'you're all a bunch of chicken littles!"
BTW..I own a home here in SOCAL which I bought 3 years ago. No bitter renter her, just an informed realistic homeowner who is telling you prices are and WILL drop lower. By the tone of your CAPS response you must be HELOCd to the hilt. Please let us know when you sell the H2 and ping us when you strip the granite countertops to list on eBay will you sweety? Byatch.; August 25, 2006 1:42 AM
Anonymous said...: smugbastard,

Like that smack! I guess the deafening roar of his approaching HELL-OC adventure made it necessary to YELL EVERYTHING HE WAS SAYING.

IT'S CALLED A 'SHIFT LOCK KEY.' LOOK INTO IT.

methinks THIS might be behind his oh so strident tone:

http://tinyurl.com/k9nda

Sour Grapes? Yeah, whatever. Many of the lifelong renters here are genuinely excited that housing prices look to deflate to sane, attainable-by-the-middle-class levels. Can you blame them? Many others are like me: already $old, cd/gold/tips/euro, NO DEBT. Sour grapes? Yeah, whatever.

I have no earthly idea why he would be anything but unhappy about the bath he's going to take in the RE if he refuses to confront fundamentals and act on them...but he definitely shouldn't expect any of us to join him in the tub...; August 25, 2006 5:59 AM
Miss Goldbug said...: I checked out Craigs list Reno yesterday to see how many more homes were for sale in my area,
and was surprised to find for sale a 3 bed, 2 baths home (on a rather busy street though)advertised "reduced to sell fast" for $287K!!! homes on this street went for around 425-460K last year.

I follow the stats around the SW and was actually in this home for an estate sale 3 months ago, and remember its in pretty good shape.

It's starting to happen....; August 25, 2006 2:02 PM
Anonymous said...: Here is the lineup for the next three months of meetings at my local real estate investors group... Pretty funny stuff...

Please mark your calendar for these important dates now!

Thursday August 31st -
Investor's Toolkit - How to read a credit report
Main Presentation - REO Panel

A FREE DVD on Pre-construction Investing will be given to all who attend the August meeting!

Thursday Sept 28th -
Investor's Toolkit - How to Buy Government-owned (HUD, VA, etc.) REO Property
Main Presentation - Pre-construction Investing

Saturday Sept 30th - Bill and Dwan Twyford
All-day workshop on short sales, negotiation, wholesaling, sales scripts, and more!
See the attached flyer for more information.

Thursday October 26th -
Investor's Toolkit - Q & A on Pre-construction Investing locally and in vacation markets
Main Presentation - Private Annuity Trusts

D; August 25, 2006 3:51 PM
Anonymous said...: Has anyone seen this BS report from the Chicago FED trying to explain how the FED DIDN’T create the hosing bubble?

Quote: In other words, according to the econometric analysis, the recent high rates of residential investment appear to have been driven mostly by fundamentals and not unusually loose monetary policy or speculative building.

http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economicperspectives/ep_3qtr2006_part3_fisher_quayyum.pdf; August 25, 2006 4:06 PM
Anonymous said...: Anon 4:06:10,

I personally don't think that the bubble was caused by the FED. They did what was necessary then in order to avert a severe recession in 2001 due to the stock market crash and 9/11. It was the reckless borrowing by consumers soley for consumption (i.e. equity loan & others). Had it been that majority of what was borrowed at a very low interest, was used for business or capital investment in order to boost production, it would have been different.

In addition, there were abuses (i.e. fraudulent appraisal) in lending practices, that led us to where we're at right now.; August 25, 2006 7:49 PM
Anonymous said...: H&R Block prepare for mortgage-loan losses

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.asp?feed=AP&Date=20060825&ID=5971867

Sacramento County Forclosure Rate up 118% over last year

http://www.kcra.com/money/9734571/detail.html; August 25, 2006 9:24 PM
Anonymous said...: 'I personally don't think that the bubble was caused by the FED."

The feds drooping rates was the catalyst. The banks however are the primary culprit of the bubble. They are the ones that peddled the no-doc, no down, IO and Options ARMs with no shame to everyone with a heartbeat.; August 25, 2006 9:40 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.pressreal.com/index.php/2006/08/25/more-bad-news/; August 25, 2006 10:59 PM
Anonymous said...: ANON-O-PUSS 10:59:
What are you some realt-whore troll? I checked out your blog and your arguments are weak. The sky is falling.What kind of shit it that. You 1/2 ass mother fucker, you should have leat gone all the way and called us all chicken littles. Stop being a pussy and post a handle. Byatch.; August 25, 2006 11:21 PM
Anonymous said...: Sorry, I don't see any "crash," crash is a function of price, not inventory. Like somebody noted, prices up 200%, then down 3%...big deal.

Sure, in theory increased inventory (supply) would result in reduces prices, but I sure as heck don't see that happening in Los Angeles.

Until prices fall 50%, it will still be a bubble, and homes will not be affordable for those who "missed the boat" (and I am one of those people!).; August 26, 2006 1:25 AM
Anonymous said...: I work at Bank Of America and all this talk of a bubble is simply anti-America.

You are all anti-American bastards and simply aiding the enemy!

We Americans are in the process of borrowing trillions and trillions of dollars from Asia and when they ask for the money back we will nuke thiee slanty eyed assed for invading Peal harbor just in case they have forgotten.

All of you anti-American posters have had your names tracked down by your IP Address and reported to the FBI.

As soon as we nuke Cuba we will make room for all of you enemy combatents, unless you go out NOW and borrow 10X your yearly earnings.; August 26, 2006 1:31 AM
Anonymous said...: AnonPUSS 1:31.........

As the anti Communist Antonio Montana would have said ....
" FUCK YOU AND THE DIAZ BROTHERS!"
you fucking cocaroach.; August 26, 2006 1:43 AM
blogger said...: iran opened its nuke reactor today to great fanfare. Odds on Israel bombing it to smithereens by the end of the year? I'll take even money; August 26, 2006 4:27 PM
blogger said...: Sorry, I don't see any "crash," crash is a function of price, not inventory. Like somebody noted, prices up 200%, then down 3%...big deal.
____________

The crash is happening you just can't see it because it's obscured by:

1) use of incentives (cars, pools, cash, trips) to sell houses, keeping the bogus sales price intact

2) only sales happening are to idiots, thus the big drop in sales volume. once final idiots are done buying, owners need to drop 20%+ to get a transaction done

3) look at current listing prices - they're crashing vs. the peak. and they haven't even sold yet which is even more scarey, because the sale price will be below the list price; August 26, 2006 4:31 PM
blogger said...: what part of "keep it clean" do you guys not understand. I'll delete posts with swearing; August 26, 2006 4:32 PM
blogger said...: so f*cking knock it off (see, if you do it that way you get to stay); August 26, 2006 4:32 PM
Anonymous said...: bubble talk is anti-american?

What about all the scum that got us to this point? Realtors, lenders, brokers, speculators, banks...etc.; August 26, 2006 6:13 PM
Anonymous said...: I love it. It's the stage of denial. I'll bet the bloggers touting the continuation of the bubble are over their heads in HEW's, HELOC's and ARMs. And we are only on the very front end of the bust. It only gets better. Bring on the foreclosures and REO's; August 26, 2006 6:16 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith, this site is Awesome!

are you single?
Brian; August 26, 2006 6:21 PM
Anonymous said...: Front page of the Baltimore Sun paper, probably the biggest newspaper in Maryland, two word main headline, big letters: REALITY CHECK
The front page article then goes on to describe the once considered "soft landing" Maryland/DC real estate scenario as getting:
Harder Buy The Day.
Looks like the MSM might be coming out of the housing bubble closet, finally!; August 27, 2006 12:46 AM
Anonymous said...: Speaking of comming out of the closet...how about you Keith?; August 27, 2006 1:01 AM
Anonymous said...: Waiting for an Answer!

Brian; August 27, 2006 6:34 AM
Anonymous said...: I just met the bigest liar (real estate agent/owner)in Floriduh.

This cow told me in my zip code (average household income of 26K, 34690) that people who live here can afford and purchase most of the houses here). We're talking about most grown adults making between $7-$12/hour. Yet the average house is about $135K.

She had the nerve to tell me that everyone here makes makes $60K/year and are the the ones buying houses here, and that there's no problems with the real estate market here. (with the homeowners insurance crisis here you can't sell a house at any price, let alone the pathetic wages workers earn here!)

Has there ever been a bigger reason to hope this whole state ends up permanently under the Gulf Of Mexico?; August 27, 2006 7:57 AM
blogger said...: I live for beautiful women. Hope that answers you question :^); August 27, 2006 9:03 AM
Anonymous said...: 34690

That is what you get for living in the arm pit of Florida.

Hold on to you rental as a cat two or three is headed your way for this Thursday. Looks like you are on the North side.

A Condo can withstand 165 mph, so I on the other hand have home owners insurance, cheap, included in my hoa and have a safe hurrican shelter.; August 27, 2006 5:57 PM
krista said...: The number of houses up for sale where i live is unbelievable. I am wondering where these people are going that sell their houses, do they stay in the same area or move somewhere across the country?; August 27, 2006 7:20 PM
krista said...: The houses up for sale in my area is unbelievable.; August 27, 2006 7:22 PM
Anonymous said...: 34690 (zip) is not the arm pit of floriduh. I've been all around this state. A few places are nicer and more are are not, I.E. downtown Tampa area is blighted, Bradenton, Jacksonville, parts of Bonita Springs. I could go on, point is that this whole state is an armpit thanks to the low ball employers (when all you offer is crumbs, all you attract and retain is rats)

My neighborhood is nice and interlaced with canals leading to the Gulf of Mexico, was a good deal so I purchased 5 years ago. Little did I know that a major league population center of Tampa Bay would have such minor league employment opportunities.

Back to the "real estate agent". She had the nerve to tell me that people have no problems here on the west coastal area getting private homeowners insurance. I'm the only one I know who still has private homeowners!

What nerve and or stupidity this farm animal has? Went on to tell me houses are selling just fine here, no problem. Then offered to list my house!

I think she's worth more by the pound, hanging upside down from a hook!; August 27, 2006 7:53 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith, I can be the most beautiful woman you've ever seen, if that would make you happy! :^)

Brian; August 27, 2006 8:53 PM
Anonymous said...: You'll love this!

A upper end development(large homes on at least 1 acre) in northern San Diego county has recently imposed a ban on
'For Sale' signs out at the Entrance to the development. You may have a standard realtor sign out front of the actual house.Come to find out, after a drive through of the area, they would have currently about 23 signs out at the entrance!

A True Sign(s) of the Times!; August 27, 2006 9:01 PM
Anonymous said...: The Official Industry Blog RealBlogging is currently running a lead story also talking about the housing bubble.; August 27, 2006 9:05 PM
Anonymous said...: In our area, a local Realtwhore told me the reason for that is, "some people consider it (for sale signs) eye pollution!"

B.S., their afraid of letting everyone see what is actually happening!; August 27, 2006 9:05 PM
Anonymous said...: Orange county by the way!; August 27, 2006 9:06 PM
Anonymous said...: Brian:

You just don't stop, do you? Are you not sure you're not that guy in Keith's post, staring at all the HPers, like John Karr?; August 28, 2006 12:17 AM
Anonymous said...: Thursday, August 24, 2006
Gov't Won't Prosecute Fannie Mae Over Accounting Problems
The AP reports:

Fannie Mae (FNM), the government-sponsored mortgage lending giant, won't face criminal charges over its multibillion-dollar accounting irregularities, the U.S. attorney's office said Thursday after two years of investigation.

"We have informed them that we are declining all charges against the company," said Channing Phillips, spokesman for U.S. attorney Kenneth Wainstein.

With all the money involved it's hard to image how a criminal probe of Fannie didn't pan out.Here's a good example of a company making campaign contributions to both sides of the isle,thus immune from prosecution.This is sickening.Too big to prosecute.; August 28, 2006 2:26 AM
Anonymous said...: John Mark Karr is just a confused and misunderstood individual

Brian; August 28, 2006 2:48 AM
Anonymous said...: Brian,

All point well taken. Now let's have some sense and get to the housing rout (bubble) issue.; August 28, 2006 5:57 AM
Anonymous said...: Check out this story on loan fraud in the Denver Post
:http://tinyurl.com/espy7

About "no documents" loans where you don't have to prove your income so go ahead and lie, your mortgage broker gets paid anyway. If your house goes into forclosure because you got in over your head, too bad for you.; August 28, 2006 12:56 PM
Anonymous said...: Check this Money article out.

http://tinyurl.com/m3tyk; August 28, 2006 7:39 PM
Anonymous said...: Couple things:

Went out looking at Open Houses yesterday in Portland OR. One realtor/investor/flipper showing place she owns said she expected the Portland market to "crash". She thinks the reason we haven't seen much yet is 1)it's just beginning, 2) Portland lags the rest of the west coast.

The number of sale signs at the end of streets is amazing here. There's tons of them. Starting to look like nonsense all crammed together. I would ban them.; August 28, 2006 8:02 PM
Anonymous said...: Couple things:

Went out looking at Open Houses yesterday in Portland OR. One realtor/investor/flipper showing place she owns said she expected the Portland market to "crash". She thinks the reason we haven't seen much yet is 1)it's just beginning, 2) Portland lags the rest of the west coast.

The number of sale signs at the end of streets is amazing here. There's tons of them. Starting to look like nonsense all crammed together. I would ban them.; August 28, 2006 8:26 PM
Anonymous said...: I always wondered what my neighbor did for a living. Single mom with an H2 and a Mercedes. Grand Piano in the living room. You get the picture. Well......she had a yard sale yesterday and there was this big orange signe that read : I will buy your house cash. Makes sense now. H2, Mercedes, home most of the time = REALT_WHORE.
Funny thing is...she leases that home. Friken cow saying she will buy houses cash and she doesnt even ownherown?? LOL!!!; August 28, 2006 8:50 PM
Anonymous said...: Speaking or Portland, OR, listings are up 50-60%+ above the 5-year avg. in most areas. In one prominent upscale NW Portland neighborhood, listings for $1M+ homes are up 150% over '05 and 250% since '04. Based on fundamentals of the past 5-10 years (population, demographics, incomes, gross state product, and rates), Portland prices are overvalued 40-60%, whereas prices in the Portland suburb of Lake Oswego are overvalued by 70% to as much as 100% (subject to a ~50% decline).

In the aforementioned neighborhood and adjacent neighborhoods, there

And, yes, Portland was late to the bubble (fallout from dot-bomb bust persisted longer), therefore, it is likely that Portland will be late to the bursting of the bubble.

And, yes, the bubble benches in Portland are expanding in size and in number.; August 29, 2006 12:29 AM
Anonymous said...: Just got my Google Alerts for the day. It looks like the MSM has switched overnight from using words like: cooling, correction, soft landing, etc., to: hard landing, crash, collapse, recession, depression.
WOW UN-F*CKING-BELIEVABLE!!!
We are vindicated at last.; August 29, 2006 12:51 AM
Anonymous said...: Historical Question. What is easier or more difficult to get laid during the great depression?; August 29, 2006 6:42 AM
Anonymous said...: How many hookers and desperate house wives did an ounce of gold buy you during the great depression?

I'm working on my savings plan estimates.; August 29, 2006 6:43 AM
Anonymous said...: For sales signs going up in LA. Last weekend ritzy Manhatten beach had open houses on every corner, at least 1.; August 29, 2006 6:48 AM
Anonymous said...: http://cagle.com/news/Pluto/2.asp; August 29, 2006 3:10 PM
InfidelSix said...: AAARRGGHHHH!!!!

I want my housing panic!!!; August 29, 2006 5:58 PM
Anonymous said...: We're finally debt-free, and ready to look for our first house. Should we look for a foreclosure now, or rent for six months and wait for prices to drop more?

Newbie in Phoenix; August 29, 2006 6:42 PM
Anonymous said...: I was going to start to run a price trend and went looking for updated median sales numbers. I downloaded an excel file in march and now I get the new numbers that only go back to July 05 and they don't match. Not even close, the new numbers are much higher and seem to show an upswing in pricing...

I guess Mark Twain was right when he said "first get your facts, then you can do with them as you please..."

Just an example, on the old list for Jul 05 north east it was 249,700, now it's 292,300; August 29, 2006 7:25 PM
Roccman said...: Aug. 27, 2006, 12:31AM
AN OVERPOPULATED EARTH?
Dr. Doom speaks his mind
Even threats don't quiet apocalyptic view of humanity's path

By LISA SANDBERG
Copyright 2006 Houston Chronicle Austin Bureau

AUSTIN - When classes resume at the University of Texas at Austin this week, 90 impressionable undergrads will file into an ecology class taught by a chatty zoology professor known — not always out of earshot — as Dr. Doom.; August 29, 2006 11:08 PM
Anonymous said...: "We're finally debt-free, and ready to look for our first house. Should we look for a foreclosure now, or rent for six months and wait for prices to drop more?

Newbie in Phoenix"

IMHO, it will take longer than six months for prices to drop completely, even in Phoenix. Plan on renting for two or three years, and stay debt-free, even if you have to buy everything used.; August 30, 2006 3:57 AM
Anonymous said...: I just want to shout I am happy I chose to make the best stupid decision of my life in 2003. Purchased a home at the rise because I felt I was missing the boat. Looking back it was the 'rise' of this crazy ride in my area. My mortage payment is less than what the house would rent for. I love my 1992, 2 story cookiecutter, 1800sq ft., 3 bedroom with a big back yard house I nabbed for 227k here in California. I also love my 30 year 5.375 fixed rate mortgage. Signed, SmugBastard06 ;-); August 30, 2006 6:54 AM
Anonymous said...: You are all a little early. Demographics will create the demand for housing. The real problem will be in 2020, until then go invest in real property; August 30, 2006 9:32 AM
Anonymous said...: The Gov. manages Hurricans just like the Fed Bank manages the economy. Orlando, everything Government closed, with 15 to 40 mile an hour winds expected today. Uh and, oh yea, it's raining. Katrina, to little to late.
next.; August 30, 2006 1:35 PM
FrankGiovinazzi said...: The Housing Bust -- Another Death Blow for Newspapers

The impending real estate bust is another death blow for newspapers. As the advertising from this sector dries up during the down side of this cycle, it's going to take more newspapers, and journalism jobs, with it.

And when the real estate cycle revives again, probably late 2009 through 2011, that advertising money will not go into print media, and it will not bring about the hiring of new print journalists.

By the time the cycle swings up again, online real estate listings and media will be more sophisticated, as will be the number of online users, and any media money will be Internet bound.

This real estate down cycle is just one of many successive shock waves that have been rolling over newspapers in particular, and the media in general.

In terms of the traditional journalism profession, the problem with the audience and advertising revenue migrating online is that the multiples don't work.

Because online media sites can't charge as much for advertising as their print counterparts did, there is less money in the pot to hire journalists.

The one thing the Internet phenomenon is showing everyone who works in the media trades is that their jobs are directly tied to advertising.; August 30, 2006 6:23 PM
Anonymous said...: "Demographics will create the demand for housing..."

True. However, the subject of this debate is the overvalue of the properties, thus creating bubble. I guess a wise investor will not put his money to service a debt (i.e.mortgage) for a long period with no return.; August 30, 2006 7:08 PM
Anonymous said...: There is a war going on over the housing bubble on
Free Republic. Most of the posters on Free Republic believe real estate prices are excessive, driven by easy credit.; August 30, 2006 7:30 PM
Anonymous said...: "The point is that if I bought a house 3years ago @ $350k and it is selling for $650k, it may go down to $500-$550k. It will never see $350k ever, let alone $250k."

You're right. I think you will see it go down to $351k and will stay there for the next 10 years. Also, you're like Nostradamus. The only difference is, he can predict the future, and you can't predict the failure. Hahahaaaaaaa! Watch this, you will respond to this message in all CAPS, which again will tell that you are very - very angryyyyyy.; August 30, 2006 7:40 PM
Anonymous said...: "By the time the cycle swings up again, online real estate listings and media will be more sophisticated..."

And Keith will be the CEO.; August 30, 2006 7:43 PM
Anonymous said...: has this site ever gone over 300 postsin a cycle? Big Traffic?; August 31, 2006 1:34 AM
Anonymous said...: Lou Dobbs of CNN had this to say to President Bush:

NEW YORK (CNN) -- 'There you go again, Mr. President. You just couldn't help yourself this weekend. For crying out loud, you did everything but declare "Mission Accomplished" on our southern border.

'You told everybody listening to your weekly radio address that you fulfilled your pledge to deploy 6,000 National Guard members to support the Border Patrol and re-asserted your call for "comprehensive immigration reform," meaning a guest-worker program and amnesty for millions of illegal aliens.

'Mr. President, 'cause you're sittin' in Crawford, 'cause you're a former governor of Texas and 'cause I was born in Texas myself, let's talk Texas here in hopes we can better communicate. When you said this weekend your administration met a key objective to better secure our nation's borders, well, that was just brag, not fact. Whoever suggested you say such a thing is dumber than a box of hammers. And as they also say in Texas, you oughta cut 'em loose.

'When you talk about the National Guard delivering results at our border and brag about our Border Patrol agents seizing 17,000 pounds of illicit drugs and 2,500 illegal aliens along our southern border since June 15, well doggone it, it's just about obvious those fancy advisers of yours forgot to tell you that's actually well below last fiscal year's pace, when the Border Patrol caught more than 1 million illegal aliens and seized more than 1.3 million pounds of illicit drugs. Did I mention you oughta cut those fancy advisers loose?

'Mr. President, I don't know if anybody told you, but only 250 more Border Patrol agents have been freed up by all those National Guardsmen. If you're curious, that works out to just about one agent for every 10 miles of border with Mexico. You don't think your compadre Vicente Fox is exactly jumpy as spit on a skillet over that deployment, do you?

'By golly, Mr. President, I need to remind you that you told the nation on May 15 that you were sending the National Guard to the border. We simply couldn't find 'em, and we sure went lookin'. Now the National Guard tells us they're not actually on the border but somewhere in the Southwest, and a whole bunch of 'em are in training, not exactly workin' just yet.

'And that fella running the so-called Homeland Security Department...he talks about ending the Border Patrol's catch-and-release program for illegal aliens and then catches and releases them, and then talks about someday achieving "operational control" of the border instead of talkin' about securing it. That makes a lot of people think he's about as yellow as mustard without the bite.

'Now what with the war in Iraq, the war in Afghanistan, Israel battling Hezbollah, Iran and its nuclear program, North Korea and its nuclear program and its missiles, our record trade and budget deficits, a slowing economy and accelerating energy prices, you're probably feelin' right now 'bout like a gnat in a hailstorm. That's understandable.

'But as Texans like us say, when you find yourself in a hole, first thing to do is quit diggin'. You got more than enough critics right now, and sure, every dog has its fleas. But you sure don't want folks to start pullin' for the fleas.

'I don't mean any disrespect, Mr. President, and I do know you're the leader of the free world, but if you would, please look 'round and see just who's followin'.'; August 31, 2006 2:40 AM
Anonymous said...: This real estate down cycle is just one of many successive shock waves that have been rolling over newspapers in particular, and the media in general.

yes, sir, and wait until the ad slowdown finds its way to GOOG, and just as insiders and scam option sellers are trying to dump to make their killing in the stock.

GOOG fans, look out belooooooooooow!!!; August 31, 2006 3:04 AM
Anonymous said...: European Scare Tactics in Gold Market

Europe’s central banks have sold about 340 tons of gold for the fiscal year ending September 26th, below their annual quota of 500 tons, with only four weeks remaining until time runs out this year. The fear of sudden European dumping of gold has put a lid on prices, since peaking at $675 /oz on July 17th. France has sold 116.5 tons thru the end of June, higher than the 115 tons sold last year, and still owns 2,790 tons of gold. Spain has sold 35.6 tons, up from 30 tons last year.

http://news.goldseek.com/
GoldSeek/1156863720.php; August 31, 2006 7:27 AM
Anonymous said...: Whether there is really a bubble or not will come down to real financial analysis. There is a site that does real math on housing (including appreciation, tax benefits, etc.) and compares it to an equivalent "rental" payment. It's ther for New York City with all its quirks, but coming for other places:
HouseMath; August 31, 2006 1:11 PM
grim said...: Some news from the Northeast:

New Jersey July Sales Plummet 25%

July was another cool month for the housing market as declining buyer-confidence continued to take its toll on home sales. In July, contract-sales activity declined 11% from the June level and was 25% below the year earlier pace in July 2005. That this slowdown comes in the midst of the prime March-to-August selling season when home sales should still be running hot provides compelling evidence of a market transition wherein home buyers have greater control over final selling prices than at any time since 1991, a 15-year span.

From an inventory perspective, the number of homes being offered for sale now stands 67% higher than a year ago. This equates to a 9-month supply as compared to only 4-months last year at this time. It is however encouraging to note that Unsold Inventory increased by only 1.5% in July following a 47% increase over the 1st 6 months of the year, which works out to nearly 8% per month over that period. This moderation, coupled with recent declines in mortgage rates present home buyers with an opportunity window that will likely close once mortgage rates continue their upward climb.

From a price perspective, market conditions continue to exhibit the greatest weakness for luxury priced homes. As shown in the table at right, Unsold Inventory below $600,000 stands at an 8 month supply as compared to 27-months above $2.5 million. This weakness in the luxury market has been developing slowly for several years now and will likely continue for the foreseeable future. As a result, expect the market for more affordably priced homes to be the first to recover.; August 31, 2006 2:20 PM
Anonymous said...: This will cheer you up.

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/woalert.php?lang=eng; August 31, 2006 4:34 PM
Anonymous said...: "Whether there is really a bubble or not will come down to real financial analysis."
With all the data, stats, blogs from the frontline and now media all over it...you still question if there IS a bubble?? WOW
Try unplugging oyur head out of your ass my friend.; August 31, 2006 9:54 PM
Anonymous said...: I'm convinced theres a bubble have been for a few years now. However I bought my 4 bed 2 bath San Diego home in 1999 for 165,000 owe about 130,000 on it now.
Homes sold last year for 500K in my neighborhood. Did I miss out should I have sold and cashed out? I thought about it before but it would have cost me more to rent an apartment then my 900.00 mortgage on a 5.25% 30 yr fixed so I didn't sell.
I dont think the value of my home will drop lower then what I paid for it; September 01, 2006 12:10 AM
Anonymous said...: Anon 12:10:17,

No, I don't think the value of your property will drop below what you've paid for in 1999. You're way safe. Just don't take any HELOC if you don't have to (i.e. emergency)

Keep in mind that you may have bought during the pre-bubble and I think, although not familiar with SD, but you may have gotten a bargain. I suggest that if you can refi your loan to a 15 yr. fix and as long as you can make the payment, do it. Hopefully in 15 years you're free and clear and maybe ready to buy the houses that crashed caused by the bubble. Real estate in Japan dropped by 40% in 14 years. It is possible that this bubble will do the same. Therefore, 15 years from now, you'll be in the best position to buy a 2nd property at a bargain. Good luck!; September 01, 2006 12:42 AM
Anonymous said...: I checked out the German bubble blog posted at the top. It seems to be about the US bubble. Does anyone have info on French/Paris real estate conditions? If so, please contact me hikerdadlvp at yahoo dot com. Thx!; September 01, 2006 6:08 AM
Anonymous said...: Interesting....I learn something all the time.

Thx......Steve @
http://www.Helping-You-Profit.com; September 01, 2006 12:43 PM
Anonymous said...: Psst . . . wanna buy some swampland?
Unsuspecting Internet buyers are paying thousands for unbuildable lots.

Mark Pino | Sentinel Staff Writer
Posted September 1, 2006

RELATED STORIES
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Old-time swamp peddling has gone high-tech, thanks to Internet-auction sites such as eBay.

The pitch -- speculation on near-worthless Florida real estate -- is decades old. But today, a new generation eyeing property for investment or retirement is buying land that's miles from civilization, has no roads or utilities and sometimes is underwater.

<A TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://ad.doubleclick.net/click%3Bh=v7/3453/3/0/%2a/e%3B44437481%3B0-0%3B0%3B13773537%3B4307-300/250%3B17899912/17917807/1%3B%3B%7Esscs%3D%3fhttp://clk.atdmt.com/AGM/go/cllcajil0300000004agm/direct/01/"><IMG SRC="http://m1.2mdn.net/1270291/jm_tough2_300x250.gif" BORDER=0></A>
Known as "paper subdivisions," these undeveloped tracts are the remnants of developers' unfulfilled dreams -- if not outright scams -- in Osceola, Polk, Volusia and Brevard counties. Buyers are paying thousands of dollars over assessed value for a lot that can't be built on in a subdivision that does not officially exist.

An acre-and-a-quarter lot -- usually assessed at $600 to $1,200 -- fetches 10 times that or more from unsuspecting buyers in Internet auctions. Florida officials estimate there are millions of these unbuildable lots in every part of the state.

Some eBay sellers have owned their lots for decades -- purchased as part of a retirement dream dangled by a high-pressure salesman. Others scooped up lots in tax sales after owners stopped paying property tax on land they realized they never could use.

Still others got ownership by paying as little as $2,000 a lot to previous owners.

Now, some buyers who say they were swindled are speaking up -- and getting results.

"You cannot do anything with the land," said Robert Derogene, a Coral Springs mortgage broker who paid $46,500 for three acre-and-a-quarter lots at a paper subdivision known as University Highlands in Volusia County. "A whole bunch of people were misled, and I didn't like that."

The state is responding to complaints from disgruntled buyers such as Derogene by forcing some sellers to offer to buy back the property, citing their failure to follow the state law regulating the sale of subdivided land. Violations can include a seller failing to register land with the state for sale.

Derogene's complaint resulted in the sellers agreeing last month to offer refunds to the buyers in 67 transactions, many of whom had complained about their eBay purchases.

Nathan Oliver of Daytona Beach, another owner who has been selling land via the Internet in University Highlands, wouldn't discuss the consent order that he and a partner signed with the state Division of Florida Land Sales, Condominiums and Mobile Homes. The pair had to offer refunds in 187 transactions to avoid a $1.87 million fine.

"I don't have anything to say. I've been honest and sincere with everybody," said Oliver, who, according to the order, agreed to $189,000 in penalties and investigative costs.

Buyer beware

The eBay listings can make the land appear more valuable than it is.

One pitch for Suburban Estates in Osceola County calls it a "gated community." Others tout easy access to the beach, Orlando and Walt Disney World. All are miles from the property.

And though some listings acknowledge that a house cannot be built on the property, they leave the impression that someday that could change.

"If you are looking for a site to build a house, you won't be able to use this property for that at this time. One day soon, when this area becomes further developed, this land could be worth a small fortune!!" reads an eBay listing in capital letters for Volusia's Cape Atlantic Estates.

Not every buyer is unhappy, however. Even though hundreds have been offered state-mandated restitution, some want to hold on to their land.

"It's a gamble," said Robert Thompson of Palm Beach, who is one of the 187 University Highlands buyers being offered a refund by Oliver. "I don't know if I ever will be able to build. I believe it's going to take off."

Thompson has seen the value of Florida swampland increase. He cites land once considered swampland in Palm Beach County that sold for about $1,000 for an acre-and-a-quarter 25 years ago. Houses now sit on it, and the land is worth $150,000 to $200,000 an acre.

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Jump to page: 1 2; September 01, 2006 4:56 PM
Anonymous said...: Psst . . . wanna buy some swampland?
Unsuspecting Internet buyers are paying thousands for unbuildable lots.

Mark Pino | Sentinel Staff Writer
Posted September 1, 2006Old-time swamp peddling has gone high-tech, thanks to Internet-auction sites such as eBay.

The pitch -- speculation on near-worthless Florida real estate -- is decades old. But today, a new generation eyeing property for investment or retirement is buying land that's miles from civilization, has no roads or utilities and sometimes is underwater.
Known as "paper subdivisions," these undeveloped tracts are the remnants of developers' unfulfilled dreams -- if not outright scams -- in Osceola, Polk, Volusia and Brevard counties. Buyers are paying thousands of dollars over assessed value for a lot that can't be built on in a subdivision that does not officially exist.

An acre-and-a-quarter lot -- usually assessed at $600 to $1,200 -- fetches 10 times that or more from unsuspecting buyers in Internet auctions. Florida officials estimate there are millions of these unbuildable lots in every part of the state.

Some eBay sellers have owned their lots for decades -- purchased as part of a retirement dream dangled by a high-pressure salesman. Others scooped up lots in tax sales after owners stopped paying property tax on land they realized they never could use.

Still others got ownership by paying as little as $2,000 a lot to previous owners.

Now, some buyers who say they were swindled are speaking up -- and getting results.

"You cannot do anything with the land," said Robert Derogene, a Coral Springs mortgage broker who paid $46,500 for three acre-and-a-quarter lots at a paper subdivision known as University Highlands in Volusia County. "A whole bunch of people were misled, and I didn't like that."

The state is responding to complaints from disgruntled buyers such as Derogene by forcing some sellers to offer to buy back the property, citing their failure to follow the state law regulating the sale of subdivided land. Violations can include a seller failing to register land with the state for sale.

Derogene's complaint resulted in the sellers agreeing last month to offer refunds to the buyers in 67 transactions, many of whom had complained about their eBay purchases.

Nathan Oliver of Daytona Beach, another owner who has been selling land via the Internet in University Highlands, wouldn't discuss the consent order that he and a partner signed with the state Division of Florida Land Sales, Condominiums and Mobile Homes. The pair had to offer refunds in 187 transactions to avoid a $1.87 million fine.

"I don't have anything to say. I've been honest and sincere with everybody," said Oliver, who, according to the order, agreed to $189,000 in penalties and investigative costs.

Buyer beware

The eBay listings can make the land appear more valuable than it is.; September 01, 2006 5:16 PM
Anonymous said...: Like the one anon pointed out, you just don't know the future on that swampland. Taxes are probably next to nothing, and who knows? A big developer, the government, a Walt Disney wannabe, might buy/build next door and then you are sitting on a gold mine. OR, it could remain useless for your lifetime. Seems like a fairly cheap gamble.; September 01, 2006 5:26 PM
Anonymous said...: b/c of the likelihood that the economy is rapidly slowing, and will decelerate further in the months ahead, be prepared for the fed to cut rates sooner than most expect, perhaps the first cut coming by year end.

and when the fed does begin to cut next time, they will have to slash in large increments, i.e., 50-100 bps, to get ahead of decelerating inflation and sinking house and stock prices. the fed has had to cut the real funds rate to NEGATIVE 3-3.5% in past recessions and rate cut cycles, which implies that the funds rate is headed below 1% at some point, and perhaps to 0% (as in Japan).

similarly, if the 10-yr. t-note yield falls the same amount as in past rate cut cycles, the t-note yield is headed to 2.25-2.5%. this will put the 30-yr. mortgage rate at 5% or even below at some point with adj. rates falling below 3%. japan's 20-yr. mortgage fell as low as the low 4% and floating rate to near 2.25%, believe it or not.

but these rates will be occurring b/c loan demand/qualifying will COLLAPSE along with falling nominal house prices. savings and MMF rates will be near 0%, the yield curve will be flatter at lower nominal AND real rates, slamming banks' margins and ROA for non-bank finance and insurance firms.

as to the tech sector, don't forget that the housing bubble drove purchases of appliances, consumer electronics, etc., all of which boosted the tech sector. when housing busts, tech will fall still further into the abyss.

collapsing rates and soaring mortgage defaults and loss reserves at banks and other firms will cause real m2 to contract, monetary base to soar (the proceeds going to banks buying treasuries to shore up their balance sheets), and money velocity to collapse, risking outright price deflation. the relative value of the US$ will firm or strengthen.

thus, treasuries will outperform stocks, bonds, real estate, and, yes, even commodities for a few yrs.

gold and commodities, stocks, corporate bonds, REITS, and real estte are a SELL, and treasuries are a BIG BUY.; September 01, 2006 5:29 PM
Anonymous said...: "Demographics will create the demand for housing."

And in what f*ing magic fairy land country do you live in anyways ? That's pretty close to the dumbest thing I've ever read here.

You mean the demographics that shows 50 some million GenXers ready to buy 80 million Boomers homes ??? Or maybe all those Starbucks-employed GenXers will be responsible for coming up with the downpayments for the 30+ percent of all homes that sold in the last few years that were SECOND homes or VACATION homes ???

Demographics in the USA is DEATH to the housing industry and the general economy over the next 20 years. Ther e are nowhere enough GenXers and Millenials with nowhere enough money to buy all the various assets that the Boomers have inflated over the last 3 decades.

Boomers - gee now there is the most apt description of a generation I have ever heard - everything they touched turned into a boom of one kind of another.; September 01, 2006 6:18 PM
Anonymous said...: we should be called the "bubblers".
(:; September 01, 2006 7:31 PM
Anonymous said...: anon is right on wrt demographics. the fed's free money convinced boomer bankers, builders, and realtors that millennials and xers would repeat the cycle of household formation and baby production. WRONG!!!

but we built and avg. 2M+ new homes/yr. over the past 4-5 yrs. when the long-term trend of household formation is no more than 1-1.3M/yr. we are now stuck with such an excess of new housing stock that new house starts will likely fall to 700-800K to 1M/yr. over the next 5-7 years. what a freaking disaster.

and consider the decline in production and consumer spending that will accompany this downdraft in housing. so much less of that junk from china flooding our ports and wal-mart aisles.

caucasian females' crude birth rate is barely 11 (10 in Japan and Europe), whereas mexican females are pumping out offspring at a rate 2 1/2 times that of whites, and we still can't get the population growth rate to 1% or higher.

poor, illiterate (in their own native spanish) mexicans are taking over the southern tier of the country and integrating it with a third world country, mexico. another freaking disaster.

and, no, those mexicans are not coming here and buying houses by their proportional numbers. 1st and 2nd gen mexican immigrants have the lowest homeownership rates (only better than native americans), high unwed births, high teenage pregnancy rates, high high school drop out rates (who can blame them), high incarceration rates, higher rates of alcohol abuse (lower than native americans), low rates of college degrees, and virtually non-existent in the professions.

whose idea was it to open the borders to this low-quality immigrant stock? the same boomers who were building 1M more homes/yr. than we need for the past half-decade or more. the same fools making those toxic loans to people who could not afford to buy the overpriced houses. the same people who extrapolate into the future the past 50 yrs. of boomer-led consumption boom.

man, are we are so fooked.; September 01, 2006 8:37 PM
Anonymous said...: Ali bin greenscam:

Men - you nailed it. No spin!

I'll tell you what, in some sense, we need immigration (legal that is) and we need to pick and choose who we wnat to come, especially in educational attainment. Canada has a point system. Your chances of getting an immigrant visa is based on your ability to speak English, some French, years in college, work experience, etc. apart of course from security check.; September 01, 2006 9:29 PM
Anonymous said...: "virtually non-existent in the professions. "

True and sad. I am a Mexican American (born in Mexuico, been here since age 1). My father started a succesful construciton business and put me through college. I am currently an IT executive. Even when I was coming up in the ranks, I still was in most cases the ONLY latino in the IT department. I still get asked how I ended up here. Simple, I refused to follow my Razas path. My father busted his ass and everyday he reminded me not to end up doing hard labor like him. That was not why we were here he said. We should take the opportunities that we dont have in our country and DAMN did I take them. I just sold a home in the OC I bought for 320k in 2003 for 680k. Debt free. Making 6 figs. Life is good. Thank you America.; September 01, 2006 9:31 PM
Anonymous said...: Simple, I refused to follow my Razas path. My father busted his ass and everyday he reminded me not to end up doing hard labor like him. That was not why we were here he said. We should take the opportunities that we dont have in our country and DAMN did I take them.

yours is a laudable situation, but a question occurs: have you assimilated? you write "our country", referring to mexico. do you feel more of an affinity to mexico than the US? have you ever thought about it?

this is very important. if you are more "mexican" than american, or you have dual loyalties, that is part of the problem with immigrants (illegal or otherwise) not assimilating.

there is not a thing wrong with being bilingual or multi-lingual ( it's preferable), but if you speak spanish exclusively at home and/or with family and friends, then your children also and will be "linquistically challenged" and will be marked as "mexican" by the majority population.

but if this non-assimilation becomes the "norm", i.e., the majority population becomes "mexican", the conditions are being created for the hopeless "multi-culturalism", which amounts to nothing more than ghettoization, ethnic segregation, etc. non-latinos (whites and asians, primarily) will over time relocate with their money, capital, and jobs, whereas unassimilated latinos will be left without language and other skills to survive in the barrios.

now, plop me down in the middle of paris, moscow, or tokyo, and see how fast i try to find people who speak english and with whom i can relate. it's human nature to segregate ourselves in search of familiarity and security. but, at some point, i'd better get busy and learn french, russian, or japanese, or i should not expect to be anything but a marginalized "other" living by virtue of the good graces of the majority ethnic majority population.

and then imgagine my marching in the streets to have the majority ethnic population to pay taxes to instruct my children in english and to provide free medical services for me, my family, and anyone or everyone i can smuggle into the host country. and then i demand that i be allowed to attend higher education via a quota system, again, paid for by the taxes from the majority population.

after that, i start an ethnic-based organization called "the whites" and call for the systematic takeover of france, russia, or japan with the goal of establishing "whiteland".

sounds rather daft, yes? not many the french, russians, or japanese would stand for it, would they? and i dare say that, if i wanted to establish "whiteland" in mexico and send all the mexicans back across the bering strait from whence their ancient ancestors once came, i suspect there would be more than a few mexicans who would object.

the asnwer is assimilation; otherwise, there will be no US to assimilate to but rather a racially/ethnically segregated mad max kind of country of increasing concentrations of browns in the southern tier, browns and yellows on the west coast, and whites predominantly along the northern tier.

whites will flood out of the south, southwest, and west coast, moving into the northwest, plains, upper midwest, and non-urban areas of the northeast, creating vast self-contained enclaves to keep out the unassimilated "others". their wealth will move with them, causing property values to decline, tax revenues to sink, jobs to disappear, and infrastructure to decay.

no, it won't happen tomorrow or next year, but the process is already underway in incremental steps. but it's not what we should want, but it's what happens to empires in decline.; September 01, 2006 11:51 PM
Anonymous said...: Anyone going to the Donald Trump Real Estate Wealth Expo?

“How much money do you want to make? Whether it's $5k, $50k or $5 million, Real Estate investing is your answer! Real Estate investing provides the highest returns, the greatest values and the least risk."

Sounds like Donald is going for broke round two!! Click here; September 02, 2006 12:04 AM
Anonymous said...: Ali bin greenscam:

Your question about Anon 9:31:10 is ridiculous. Go back and pay more attention because he was making reference to his past which is why he is using "our country" instead of "my country," as you would have want him to say. He was just comparing the opportunities he has in the U.S., which Mexico couldn't offer.

Give me a break; you are over reacting.; September 02, 2006 2:12 AM
Anonymous said...: I just got a book out of the library called The Automatic Millionare Homeowner. I'm skimming it to amuse myself. It's full of all these stories of people who have bought houses and then sold them a few years later and made major money, or kept their houses and became landlords and made even more money. One of the "myths" of buying a home is that you need a downpayment and good credit and income. You should buy a home even if you have credit card debt because you'll be selling it in a few years to make lots of money, pay off your debts and trade up to a better house. In fact you can even charge your downpayment on credit cards.

I feel so sorry for anyone who follows the advice in this book.; September 02, 2006 2:41 AM
Anonymous said...: Assimilated? I am an Ivy League college graduate, work for one of the biggest technology corporations in the world. My wife from Peru is also college educated, school teacher. We live in Irvine, CA amongst some of the wealthiest Southern Californians (equity rich most though). My children attend the best schools in the district. I own a home worth 750k and I just sold another and paid almost the remaining balance of my primary residence. Not bad for a 'MEXICAN'.
btw..we ONLY speak ESPANOL to our young children at home. We are proud of our culture. We love America. There is a happy median.; September 02, 2006 3:38 AM
Anonymous said...: Some are saying deflation and buy Treasuries. I just can't see how this will ever happen. As long as the FOMC can buy billions of securities at no cost, how can deflation ever happen? What I think will happen is an initial deflationary wave, followed by an overreaction and mass printing of currency, followed by a hyperinflation.; September 02, 2006 4:02 AM
Anonymous said...: OMG, Keith,
I just heard a radio advertisement for a Country Wide bundle Loan. Bundle all credt card, auto and home mort (1st and 2nd) into one loan, one payment.
They do not know when to stop!; September 02, 2006 4:03 AM
Anonymous said...: Housing ‘Freefall’ Worse Than Dot-Com Crash?

The number of unsold homes in America is at a 10-year high, and some analysts fear that the current slowdown in the housing market could cause more damage than the dot-com bust of 2001.

Canada’s Globe and Mail cites David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch’s North American economist: "[Rosenberg] has fretted about a housing bubble for at least two years. He of course has been wrong. Prices kept rising.

"Now he looks more right than wrong and he's steadfast in his convictions. He talks about ‘the recession under way in the housing sector.’ Note the lack of ‘potential’ or ‘possible’ ahead of the 'R' word," the paper says.

"Houses are the biggest store of North American wealth. If even a small fraction disappears, watch out. With cruel glee, Mr. Rosenberg points out that there have been 10 U.S. housing downturns in the past 50 years and seven of them triggered a ‘full-blown recession within 24 months.’ "

The UK’s Guardian reports that according to official figures, the number of new homes sold in July was 22% lower than at the same point a year earlier, and prices were nearly flat — all of which is leading experts to predict that what is now a housing slowdown will devolve into a total crash.

"Things do seem to be getting worse very quickly. Freefall is a strong word, but I think it's the right one to use here," Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, told the Guardian.

Ashworth claims that since 2001, some 30% of all jobs created in the United States have been linked to housing — anything from work on construction to employment at a store like Home Depot. The paper says a housing decline could see businesses cut some 73,000 jobs a month in 2007.

Morgan Stanley’s chief economist Stephen Roach believes that the housing slowdown — which is cutting into construction spending and robbing homeowners of ready cash from their properties — will slice about 2 percentage points off 2007 GDP growth, taking the United States close to recession.

The Guardian quotes Roach: "'For a wealth-dependent U.S. economy, the bursting of another major asset bubble is likely to be a very big deal,' he said, warning that, with U.S. fiscal and trade imbalances now larger than five years ago, the fallout for the rest of the world could be more devastating than the aftermath of the dot-com boom.

"‘A bursting of the property bubble poses equally serious risks for America's key trading partners and for the rest of an increasingly integrated global economy,' he added."; September 02, 2006 3:46 PM
Anonymous said...: what's with the f*cking ad for Option One Mortgage?; September 02, 2006 6:50 PM
Anonymous said...: There is just so much negative talk here. I like to hear happy talk about how there is no housing bubble, how houses always go up in value, how we are winning the war in Iraq, how economic growth will wipe out the deficit, how we will find all the terrorists and smoke 'em out of their holes, that real estate activity always picks up in the spring, that this slowdown is temporary and is healthy, that there is plenty of oil in the ground, that gasoline prices will drop, that nobody wants to hurt us, etc. Can this be a blog of happy talk, please? I like to hear that everything is going to be all right, and that the condo I bought last year will make me rich in a year or so.; September 02, 2006 11:19 PM
Anonymous said...: then watch cartoons instead of reading hp.; September 03, 2006 12:33 AM
Anonymous said...: Hey 'Happy Talk', Cut the dose!; September 03, 2006 12:48 AM
Anonymous said...: Anon 12:33:11,

"I like to hear happy talk about how there is no bubble..."

If that's what you want, you have to be in the World OF Make Believe.

As to the condo you bought last year, and hope that it'll make you rich in a year or so, I wish you the best and more power. That's the most (happiest) comment you can hear from me.; September 03, 2006 2:54 AM
Anonymous said...: Anonymous said...
There is just so much negative talk here. I like to hear happy talk about how there is no housing bubble

What you DO is up to you. At least be thoughtful and bring some for everybody.; September 03, 2006 4:15 AM
Anonymous said...: WALL STREET JOURNAL
Saturday-Sunday September 2-3, 2006
page A2
David Lereah quote from interview
"I'm hoping for prices to drop." A drop of 5% to 10% in California and southern Florida "probably would be enough to bring sales back."

What a tool.; September 03, 2006 6:43 AM
Anonymous said...: I think the housing crash will be
much worse then everyone thinks and the effects on economy will be devastating.; September 03, 2006 9:53 AM
Anonymous said...: devastating.
Not a very happy thought....
Got Food?; September 03, 2006 1:34 PM
Anonymous said...: Is perfect storm brewing on the housing scene?
Published September 3, 2006

The Florida housing market is spiraling down, like Dorothy's Kansas bungalow plunging out of the clouds toward Oz.

How hard we land remains a matter of speculation, but the momentum is away from soft.

The arm breakers are headed out to collect on all these loan-shark mortgage schemes. People who put the Lexus and face-lift on a home equity loan may find they owe more than what their house is worth.

On top of that, Florida has its own unique problems. We had more speculators driving up prices. Zooming insurance rates are making the coast unaffordable. And the Save our Homes amendment saddles homeowners who move within the state with huge property tax penalties.

We have never had such forces converge before. A perfect storm could be brewing on Florida's real estate horizon. People certainly seem to be feeling the first breezes.

This month there was a big drop in the Florida Consumer Confidence Index. We are in a bigger funk than consumers nationwide, and in the biggest funk we've been in since 1993. University of Florida survey director Chris McCarty blames the bubble.

"You can't downplay the constrained ability of consumers to withdraw equity from their homes,'' he says.

No equity, no moving up in the market. No withdraw, no spending.

Adding to the gloom is that much of our explosive job growth is directly tied to real estate -- construction, sales, financing, home improvement, etc. If the housing bubble pops loudly, a lot of these jobs go poof.

Statewide, sales of single-family homes are down 26 percent this year. There are about a dozen markets where the median sales price in July was lower than in July 2005. Condo numbers are worse.

Coastal areas such as Naples, Sarasota, South Florida and Tampa-St. Petersburg have been hit hard.

Sales reported by the Orlando Regional Realtor Association were holding up this year, then dropped sharply in June and July. The number of homes for sale in the Orlando area is up a whopping 450 percent from a year ago. There is more than a nine-month supply of homes on the market, a sharp jump even from June. Well into the normally hot-selling summer months, we are not going in the right direction. July sales actually fell below February sales.

Expect stressed sellers next year. That's when we'll see if prices can continue hanging on.

How will this play out?

I think it gets bad enough that there is a big push to bail out the hurricane insurance market and amend Save our Homes -- if voters go along.

Orlando's housing will hold up better than the coast's. Those who bought a downtown condo with the intention of flipping will get burned unless they have deep enough pockets to hang on. Last month, the Realtors' association reported selling only six condos valued at more than $400,000.

The phrase "investment condo" will become an oxymoron for a while -- a long while on the coast.

We still have our twin pillars of growth and jobs, but a lot of those jobs only pay renter wages.

My advice, as always: If you find a nice place at a nice price you can afford, and plan to settle in, buy it.

Mike Thomas can be reached at 407-420-5525 or mthomas@orlandosentinel.com.; September 03, 2006 2:51 PM
Anonymous said...: My advice, as always: If you find a nice place at a nice price you can afford, and plan to settle in, buy it.

wtf; September 03, 2006 2:51 PM
Anonymous said...: Mike Thomas:

Kudos! I'm glad to hear that you've come out in the open to tell exactly what it is and tried not to downplay the situation. I think it is important, for marketing purposes, to be straight with the prospective buyer in times like this where people are skeptical and crediblity is an important factor to them.

Agents who are in denial and continue to make a spin will get nowhere.

In the real estate industry, especially in the bear market, you have to be CREATIVE in order to be competitive and CREDIBILITY, INTEGRITY and SINCERITY are few of the creativeness that will stand out and sell.

Good luck!; September 03, 2006 4:07 PM
Anonymous said...: This down turn has just started! Wait until the ARM and interest only Tsunami hits. Get off the beach, and into cash ASAP. Don't be one of the body counts!; September 03, 2006 6:47 PM
Anonymous said...: Check out the book "Sell Now" by John Talbott. It's a great book about the bubble!; September 03, 2006 6:53 PM
Anonymous said...: The big down turn is coming! Soft landing!!! Ha! Don't get under this one. It's dropping like a rock in the Central coast of Cal. About 1-1.5% a month. Just do the math! That means a least 36% in 3 years.; September 03, 2006 6:56 PM
Anonymous said...: "I know Nothing", but I work in so.cal in the construction business. The numbers of jobs related to const. are huge, if there is a downturn (which is happening now) where are these workers going to go! Whether illegal or not, it will kill the economies around a large area.
Included are San Diego Co., Riverside Co., Orange Co., Phoenix,
Not to mention Florida. Ithink this is going to be Monumental!; September 04, 2006 1:51 AM
Anonymous said...: Blue States = High Housing Prices = Educated Job Markets = Every Normal Person wants to live there

Red States = Low House Prices = No Jobs = Religous Retards = No wants to live there.

A country divided.; September 04, 2006 4:16 AM
Anonymous said...: "A country divided."

I've said it all along that countries who hates us and wants to do harm here would like to see us fight (not in physical way)against each other first. It's the Machiavelli principle; Divide and Conquer.

It is easier to conquer a nation, whether militarily, economically or psychologically, that is divided.; September 04, 2006 6:02 AM
Anonymous said...: Anon 1:51:32,

I provide construction consulting to small (mom and pop) construction companies. If you're in residential construction business, unless you're big like the Toll Bros., you may want to shift to commercial or even better public works sector and more importantly, be quality oriented. You may set yourself different from others by embracing "customer satisfaction" as one of your core values. Keep good and reliable workers and get rid of the undesirable ones - quick. Focus on training and good project management. Do not low ball your bid out of desperation of trying to get one.

I wish you luck.; September 04, 2006 6:12 AM
Anonymous said...: If things were not gloomy enough..... lets factor in the recent home equity cash-outs and what effect that may have on the larger picture. Many economists, television talking heads and other enlightened ones tell us that a decline in the housing market will reduce GDP by only 1% or 2% tops.
Now for that pesky math stuff... According to the fed reserve home refi/cash-outs topped 600 billion in 2005. The GDP is just over 12 trillion. So 600b is 5% of GDP. And if that 600+b bounces around a few times in the economy (before sinking into the black hole we call the trade deficet) it actually represents a much larger share of GDP. But I'm not saying that cash-outs will be zero. Lets just assume they return to pre-bubble levels of less then 200b. It's over 400b multiplied by the macro economic effect and thats a good reason for Greenspan to retire.

I'm not an economist but I did stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night.; September 04, 2006 11:20 AM