HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with an Attitude Problem, 2005 - 2008: BUBBLETALK

September 03, 2006

BUBBLETALK - August archive thread

334 comments:

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Anonymous said...: Check out this German housing bubble blog.

http://www.immobilienblasen
.blogspot.com/

thanks; August 05, 2006 3:41 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.survivalacres
.com/wordpress/; August 05, 2006 3:44 PM
Anonymous said...: Just drove around town this morning. The number of blocks here in Atlanta with both sides of the street packed with houses for sale is truly astounding. This is quite the setup for price-drop battles.; August 05, 2006 6:28 PM
Anonymous said...: I live in atlanta...have put off buying for the past three years because I knew something wasn't right. I could not for the life of me understand who could afford these macmansions that were springing up everywhere. I am talking 400,000 and up. While I am not at the lower end of the wage pool, I would have to be a fool to finance nothing more than granite counter tops and designer paint as incentives. Does anyone see the price of real estate dropping in the atlanta area?; August 05, 2006 7:59 PM
Anonymous said...: Where would one find information showing the previous purchase price of real estate? I have been perusing real estate sites and many of the houses showcased seemed to be staged. Don't want to deal with flippers/hate them.; August 05, 2006 8:01 PM
Anonymous said...: zillow.com has everything you need and more; August 05, 2006 8:16 PM
Anonymous said...: I always check the Public Records on line. You would go to your local County Property Tax Web sight. There you will always find the buyers purchase date, purchase price and the taxable value of every dwelling.
All you need is the address.; August 05, 2006 8:16 PM
Anonymous said...: Zillow is also good, but the newer condos and homes are not always there. I use both sources, Zillow and The County Property Tax records to do my research.; August 05, 2006 8:18 PM
Anonymous said...: Now if only the prices would actually start coming down in the Phoenix area.; August 05, 2006 10:03 PM
Anonymous said...: There's no housing bubble.

Tax cuts work.

We need to repeal the estate tax.

Supply side economics is the way.; August 05, 2006 10:57 PM
Anonymous said...: Give this one a try.

http://www.realestateabc.com/; August 05, 2006 11:35 PM
Anonymous said...: Phoenix, Arizona
Including Anthem, Avondale, Black Canyon City, Cave Creek, Chandler, Congress, Desert Hills, Glendale, Guadalupe, Laveen, Litchfield Park, Luke Afb, New River, Paradise Valley, Peoria, Rock Springs, Sacaton, Scottsdale, Sun City, Tempe, Tolleson
Trend 08/01/2006 1 month 3 month 6 month 9 month
Median Price $339,900 -1.5% -2.9% -3.2% -5.6%
Inventory 27,268 +3.4% +21.0% +62.0% +122.1%; August 06, 2006 12:05 AM
Anonymous said...: Keith you rock! your site rocks!

keep it up! You da man!; August 06, 2006 12:44 AM
Anonymous said...: Money gone, new home buyers try to pick up the pieces

http://tinyurl.com/qtdur

Felon Changes his name, becomes a developer, makes 5 million and never builds a home. RE Professionals were even taken by this man.; August 06, 2006 2:19 PM
Anonymous said...: I know that this may sound crazy, but anyone else think that this whole thing (indebting the masses and spending every last red cent this country has or which foreign governments will let us borrow) by the present administration was planned in order to once and for all effectively reign in government spending by effectively destroying it? Think about it, how can a government go on when it has absolutely no cash? Maybe, he really is the anti-christ; August 06, 2006 6:39 PM
Anonymous said...: How hilarious. And right after the bubble has burst. As usual, his timing is dreadful.; August 06, 2006 10:02 PM
Anonymous said...: What kind of fool am i?

I guess that i am so dense that i just don't understand all the numbers and graphs and charts that are spoon fed (with a large shovel)to me by the so-called market experts, to understand that housing can never 'Bust'! Or so they say.
As I stand here in San Diego filling my midsize with $3.75 gas,with my cup of $4 javafrap in hand, i wonder, Where have all these 'New' Mcmansions come from? All the new subdivisions that weren't here a year ago.Better yet, where r all the people coming from 2 fill them? Where's their coin coming from 2 afford these abodes with prices so sky high, i need a ladder to just look at them!
I'm sorry, but a halfwit such as myself can clearly see something is really wrong here.
Ma and Pa Kettle ain't selling the Iowa hog farm to move to all points west!
I've lived in S.D. since '72 , mid 40's married, no kids ,No debt and in truth can't believe what 500k to 1mil will buy....surprisingly not much! What a dollar will (or won't) buy scares the Hell out of me. Even worse 'noboby' saves anymore. This prosperity on paper is gonna hurt until people realize they own nothing (no equity), or how much they actually owe! Do they think the bill won't come due eventually!
One less Rolex, or high end euro-wagon sporster...can they do it?
We live well within our means (alot don't). What is going to happen when people take the mindset of just wait and see. A backlog of homes for sale, a slow down in new construction...etc.
What about int.rates on the rise, possible recession, all that 'creative financing' fixing to reset to the next level? Or 'Interest Only'.... please!
My wife and i saw a home in a rough neighborhood, built in 1923 with 772sqft., on .05ac. for almost $400k!
San Diego or not..that's crazy!

I've been told what they want you to do is buy the property, demolish the house and build new! Well that's great, i'll have the nicest house in the worst part of town. No telling with the $per sqft. building costs, permits etc., what the final costs will be! On a lot that small with the offsets, you can only go up...but wait your also restricted to 2 stories!
Like i said, i'm not the shiniest tool in the shed...but i'm dumb enough to know to sit back, rent, save my money and wait for the carnage!; August 06, 2006 11:46 PM
Anonymous said...: You know what really scares me the most? That when I wake up one morning living in (U.S.) a third world country.; August 07, 2006 12:50 AM
Anonymous said...: San Diego housing prices are predicted to drop 40-80%. Busse has a interesting book "The 2nd Great Depression", written in 2004. He predicts the consumer dept bubble is what will kill the economy. Housing is just a symptom of the overall consumer debt bust.

Anyone remember when credit cards were called "charge cards"? A charge card was hard a heck to obtain. That was only in 1980. Today, fog a mirror and get in debt to your hearts content.

Oil hasn't gone up. The USD is going down and will soon fall off the cliff. Buy gold and pay off ALL debt. A depression is coming in 6 months or less.; August 07, 2006 4:59 AM
Anonymous said...: "The 2nd Great Depression"

I'm not sure that consumer debt will create a depression.

The more I look into "debt," the more profoundly the idea of "personal debt" becomes.

Specifically, some economists want money that devalues over time. That way, if you don't spend your money, it goes away. This roughly happens because of inflation but if each dollar had it's own halflife, then you could protect against the hoarding of money while, at the same time, you could also inject money into an economy that could "evaporate" if not used.

Debt seems to have that same property.

Some people are able to leverage debt, and create wealth, while others, indeed, become consumed by debt.

Based on this analogy, I don't think that debt will kill America but, based on a very cursory evaluation, I like the premise of the book: "2010 Meltdown" which suggests that the lack of "high value" labor would kill America instead. In that situation, because workers don't have valuable skills, their money (debt) evaporates and they have nothing. A depression, therefore, is the omnipresence of this effect.

The monetary system we have now seems to be headed this way since skilled laborers are able to retire and when they do in large numbers, the society, perhaps, can't generate economic output and money (debt) evaporates.

I truly hope that the US continues to have "real economic output" (just not capitol gains or funny money) and our workers are economically relavent enough to justify their repayments.; August 07, 2006 6:48 AM
Anonymous said...: to the anonymous writter afraid he will one day wake up in a third world country! Your fears are almost fullfilled! Contaminated water supply in San Diego, T.B. on the rise! Ain't it a big beautiful world in which we live? :); August 07, 2006 7:22 AM
Anonymous said...: In the NY Times. Paul Krugman, columnist. This gets wide play.

Intimations of Recession
By PAUL KRUGMAN
These are the dog days of summer, but there’s a chill in the air. Suddenly — really just in the last few weeks — people have starting talking seriously about a possible recession. And it’s not just economists who seem worried. Goldman Sachs recently reported that the confidence of chief executives at major corporations has plunged; a clear majority of C.E.O.’s now say that conditions in the world economy, and the U.S. economy in particular, are worsening rather than improving.

On the face of it, this loss of faith seems strange. Recent growth and jobs numbers have been disappointing, but not disastrous.

But economic numbers don’t speak for themselves. They always have to be interpreted as part of a story. And the latest numbers, while not that bad taken out of context, seem inconsistent with the stories optimists were telling about the U.S. economy.

The key point is that the forces that caused a recession five years ago never went away. Business spending hasn’t really recovered from the slump it went into after the technology bubble burst: nonresidential investment as a share of G.D.P., though up a bit from its low point, is still far below its levels in the late 1990’s. Also, the trade deficit has doubled since 2000, diverting a lot of demand away from goods produced in the United States.

Nonetheless, the economy grew fairly fast over the last three years, mainly thanks to a gigantic housing boom. This boom led directly to unprecedented spending on home construction. It also allowed consumers to convert rising home values into cash through mortgage refinancing, so that consumer spending could run far ahead of families’ incomes. (Americans have been spending more than they earn for the past year and a half.)

Even optimists generally concede that the housing boom must eventually end, and that consumers will eventually have to start saving again. But the conventional wisdom was that housing would have a “soft landing” — that the boom would taper off gradually, and that other sources of growth would take its place. You might say that the theory was that business investment and exports would stand up as housing stood down.

The latest numbers suggest, however, that this theory isn’t working much better on the economic front than it is in Baghdad.

Signs of a deflating housing bubble began appearing a year ago, but for a while it was possible to argue that eliminating a bit of “froth” in the housing market wouldn’t do the overall economy much harm. Now, for the first time, problems in the housing market are starting to seriously reduce economic growth: the latest G.D.P. data show real residential investment falling at an accelerating pace. The latest job numbers show falling employment in home construction, and retail employment has fallen over the past year, suggesting that consumer spending is running out of steam. (Gas at $3 a gallon doesn’t help, either.)

Meanwhile, neither business investment nor exports seem to be growing fast enough to make up for the housing slump.

Now maybe we’ll still manage that soft landing despite a rapidly rising number of unsold houses; or maybe there’s a boom in business investment and/or exports just over the horizon. But based on what we know now, there’s an economic slowdown coming.

This slowdown might not be sharp enough to be formally declared a recession. But weak growth feels like a recession to most people; remember the long “jobless recovery” that followed the official end of the 2001 recession?

And what will policy makers do about a slump, if it happens? A snarky but accurate description of monetary policy over the past five years is that the Federal Reserve successfully replaced the technology bubble with a housing bubble. But where will the Fed find another bubble?

And with the budget still deep in deficit and the costs of the Iraq war still spiraling upward, it’s hard to see Congress agreeing on any significant fiscal stimulus package — especially because history suggests that the Bush administration and Congressional leaders will turn any debate about how to help the economy into yet another attempt to smuggle in tax cuts for the wealthy.

One last thing: the real wages of most workers fell during the “Bush boom” of the last three years. If that boom, such as it was, is already over, workers have every right to ask, “Is that it?”; August 07, 2006 12:41 PM
Anonymous said...: CNNMoney.com: This is beginning of Realtor's End:

( http://tinyurl.com/k6l77)

Discounters are alive and well

Full-service real estate brokers continue their efforts to secure their turf. But discounters' business is booming.

At the heart of the issue is a fight over how much individuals should have to pay to sell a house. Full-service agents charge sellers a 6-percent commission, and those fees can run well into the thousands of dollars. That buys a home seller everything from listings to open houses to help with negotiations at closing time. Those are useful services.

But some sellers might just want help posting a listing, for example. For them, discounters offer "limited service" and might charge just a few hundred dollars. The real estate establishment has long maintained that traditional brokers can find a buyer more quickly and secure a higher price than a seller could on his own.; August 07, 2006 2:26 PM
Anonymous said...: The long-awaited arrival of Alex Jones' latest trend-setting documentary has arrived! TerrorStorm delivers a powerful sucker punch to the secrets of covert US wars in middle east, Europe, and the world.

http://tinyurl.com/rlvew; August 07, 2006 4:53 PM
Anonymous said...: Where the hell is Gary Watts these days?; August 07, 2006 5:41 PM
Anonymous said...: To anonymous supply-side economics guy -

Here's what supply-side economics has wrought:

Wealth condensation:
http://br.endernet.org/~akrowne/econ/charts/capitalincome_shapiro_friedman.gif

A rising tide that no longer lifts all boats:
http://br.endernet.org/~akrowne/econ/charts/income_gains_histogram.gif
http://br.endernet.org/~akrowne/econ/charts/income_growth_1995.png

Uncompensated productivity gains:
http://br.endernet.org/~akrowne/econ/charts/wages_prod_2000.gif

A culture of debt, led by government:
http://br.endernet.org/~akrowne/econ/charts/natl_debt_till_2005.gif

Need I even mention what has happened to the manufacturing sector, or personal savings?; August 07, 2006 6:26 PM
Anonymous said...: The Seattle market's still chugging away. Lots of people's houses are up over 15% this year alone.; August 07, 2006 7:22 PM
Anonymous said...: OMG, We are truly a nation of inDUHviduals

Consumer borrowing rises sharply in June

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer 36 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - Americans increased their borrowing in June at a much faster pace than expected, with the rise led by higher credit card debt.

The
Federal Reserve reported Monday that consumer borrowing rose at an annual rate of 5.7 percent in June, up sharply from a 3.3 percent increase in May.

The June advance reflected a rise in consumer debt of $10.27 billion at an annual rate, much larger than the $3.7 billion increase economists had been expecting.

Analysts are expecting consumer borrowing to slow in coming months, reflecting the slowdown that has already occurred in consumer spending.

For June, borrowing on revolving credit — the category that includes credit card debt — rose at an annual rate of 9.8 percent, following an even bigger 11 percent gain in May.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060807/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/consumer_credit_2; August 07, 2006 9:11 PM
Anonymous said...: They can't stop spending, so instead they borrow ... they don't know how to save money anymore.

Like one person told me, cash is just dead ... why save cash? Invest ... invest in REAL ESTATE.; August 07, 2006 11:18 PM
Anonymous said...: I'm worried about where to put my money. I don't own a home. I'm renting. I have a lot of money in my 401K and in mutual funds. Should I get out of these mutual funds and go into money markets? Gold?; August 07, 2006 11:53 PM
Anonymous said...: Hey Keith,

How about an expose on who these House of Representative bozos were that voted to loosen lending standards on FHA loans just when the bubble's bursting?

Or maybe, since only 7 Reps. voted against it, you can tell us who they were so we'll know the 7 lonely lawmakers out there who give a sh#t whether or not Americans lose their homes through foreclosure.

The bill's called the "American Homeownership Act of 2006" or something and the # is HR 2151.

It goes to the Senate next.; August 08, 2006 1:35 AM
Anonymous said...: Be careful guys.

My best friend has lost over $500,000 to a stay-at-home ex wife who used trips to the park with the kids to get stoned and have affairs with 19-20y/o boys. It was hard to see the anguish on his face because he was doing everything right but it wasn't "exciting" enough for her.

I cannot tell you the number of girls I have dated who have started talking kids, marriage, etc way too soon. One girl even joked about getting pregnant. Personally I do not find that to be a laughing matter at all. I was dating a pretty All-American girl who kept wanting to move in. She started acting strange and I stopped trusting her, then one night she got me worked up after I had fallen asleep and low and behold, we did something without using protection (though we normally did) but she was on the pill, right? right? wrong. Somehow it just didn't work and I got the dreaded phone call a couple weeks later of a girl screaming into the phone saying that I was going to be a dad, she was moving in and we were getting married, and I was buying us a HOUSE in the overheated 2005 martket, else she was going to take me for every penny I had. And I had to buy her a SUV. Talk about from love to hell in a short amount of time. My whole world was shattered in a 10 second phone message. Thankfully I bided my time stringing her alone and she had a miscarriage within a month, at which time I told her in straight words to "GET THE F**K OUT".

Lessons learned, never trust a woman who says she is on the pill, never act in the passion of the moment, and be very careful. I am one of the lucky ones, I have friends who went through the same thing with much different outcomes. One has a wife who is out cheating on him and he can't do anything about it lest he pay $800 a month in child support. When she was his g/f she was medically unable to get pregnant....(and she was my G/F before and told me the same right before the next guy knocked her up) right......

Now I've been talking with highly educated, beautiful foreign women. It's completely different - instead of the usual "what can you do for me" attitude it's a "thank you for being a nice guy" attitude. what a change it makes.; August 08, 2006 3:56 AM
Anonymous said...: ongNeedFood

Get your money to a brokerage or two.
Buy silver and gold ETFs on dips.
Average in slowly, and resist the urge
to go 100% all at once. There will be
higher lows in future at least.
Also buy QID and MZZ bear funds when the
stock market is up, and BEARX.
Leave some good fraction (30%?) in cash,
maybe in foreign currencies, in the
case of a deflation. Stay out of bonds.
Stop investing in your 401K for a few
years, and buy physical metal as well.
Find a nice spot to hide it in, as
safty deposit boxes are at risk.

Anyone else have a comment on that?
Other suggestions (please)?

--El Maha; August 08, 2006 1:35 PM
Anonymous said...: Check this one out! I used to live in Tampa. It is a 9:1 buyers market. Yikes!
http://www.sptimes.com/2006/08/08/
Business/Home_glut_brings_pric.shtml; August 08, 2006 2:20 PM
Anonymous said...: http://cagle.com/working/060804/sheneman00.gif; August 08, 2006 3:07 PM
Anonymous said...: Now I've been talking with highly educated, beautiful foreign women. It's completely different - instead of the usual "what can you do for me" attitude it's a "thank you for being a nice guy" attitude. what a change it makes.

NOOOOO, do not start this AGAIN.
What is your problem????

Go to Match.com/url=Russia where you belong.

Isn't there a Mail order companion web sight for angry men like you?

This is a HOUSING BUBBLE BLOG. DUH.; August 08, 2006 3:16 PM
Anonymous said...: boomer/bubblesitter,
"NOOOOO, do not start this AGAIN.
What is your problem????"

Don't you see the connection? I almost became a fu**ed borrow and worse.

Just like renters today, I was able to avoid a bloodbath in more ways than one.; August 08, 2006 4:18 PM
Anonymous said...: what a bunch of chicken littles!; August 08, 2006 4:20 PM
Anonymous said...: Just like renters today, I was able to avoid a bloodbath in more ways than one.

...then one night she got me worked up..
..never trust a woman ...

...wife who is out cheating on him...

..highly educated, beautiful foreign women.....

What a Soap Opera, you sound like an Anti-American High School Girl.

It is way TMI. Find another blog for men who have been Fooked over because they are horney. Maybe you could start one.; August 08, 2006 4:40 PM
Anonymous said...: Good article on Naples, FL bubble:

here

Unbelievable quote:

Teachers, nurses, paralegals and other middle-income workers are pursuing housing -- and jobs -- elsewhere. That's making it tough for employers, which are giving big raises and housing subsidies and still finding it difficult to hire or keep staff

What idiots, just let the market forces sort this one out, a 50% haircut ought to suffice ...; August 08, 2006 4:40 PM
Anonymous said...: "BUBBLETALK - New thread to talk about the epic housing crash and how some poor souls have women-hating issues"

Please please, people on both sides of the fence, drop that stupid argument.; August 08, 2006 5:13 PM
Anonymous said...: "Nigerian 419 Scammers Discover Real Estate Slowdown"

Another twist is they send you a counterfeit check which you deposit. Then they get you to draw on those funds or return the money. It takes a while before the check is found to be counterfeit. You are the bagholder.; August 08, 2006 5:16 PM
Bill said...: FALSE FLAG ALERT: OIL PRODUCTION DOWN 8%

Trust me, this has all been cooked up by Cheney. BP, with official public apologies of course, is shutting down a huge part of its production which, obviously, will cause the price of oil to rise and other neat, win-win situations for all the fat cats as well as the bloodthirsty neocons. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/25/AR2006072500640.html?nav=rss_business BP's Quarterly Profit Jumps 30% Rising Demand, Oil Costs Cited; CEO Plans to Resign in '08 By Steven Mufson Here's their plan: Obviously, BP has plenty enough cash lying around to keep the executive washrooms stocked for several weeks and probably months. They won't be hurt.....on the contrary. The price is already rising with the "news" of less oil available and I expect we'll begin hearing subtle messages out of the White House that will seem out of character. They'll begin telling everyone that we need to "conserve" while Bush orders U.S. oil reserves to be tapped, drawing down our emergency supplies. From there, they will begin slowly ratcheting up the fear a little at a time....timing's important when everything they do is dreamed up and orchestrated out of whole cloth. The White House has its fingers crossed that Iran will not accept the U.N. proposal at the end of this month, at which time there will be sanctions, at which time Iran will cease oil exports, at which time Bush will have the "National Emergency" he's been looking for. Neat, huh? Oh, about BP. No tears here. It doesn't take a genius to understand that they'll not lose a penny by shutting down this production. The oil in the ground they would be selling now and in the interim at, say, $74 will be sold when this production comes back on line at $200 a barrel....compliments of Iran's oil shut off to the U.S. The White House will try and insure Americans are in a panicked lather by this time, maybe even to the point where he can drop a few nuclear bombs on Tehran without too much squawking. Will Congress give Bush permission? He won't need permission, because there won't be a Congress anymore. He will have already declared a "national emergency" (not enough oil to maintain our national security), suspended the Constitution, and imposed martial law until which time (guess who?) BUSH declares the emergency to be passed. The coup will be complete. During this time I will declare war against George Bush and his unitary, fascist government as the Constitution allows its citizens to do.; August 08, 2006 6:34 PM
Anonymous said...: Fed Rate Unchanged.; August 08, 2006 7:20 PM
Anonymous said...: Anyone up for buying the front page of the Washington Post real estate section and setting the record straight?

I wonder how much it would cost?; August 08, 2006 10:25 PM
foxwoodlief said...: Our friends in Phoenix just told us the house next door sold for $525,000. The neighborhood is nothing but an ordianary tract-home division. The homes sold new for maybe $125,000 in 2000. I thought Phoenix was in a meltdown. This price is the highest for their neighborhood so where is the price decreases predicted? I guess in Phoenix location still means somthing and not all the markets are responding the same there.

I was shocked. We sold our house in March 2005 for $375,000 and it was 600 sq foot larger than this house with $100,000 more in upgrades and we thought we sold at near the peak. So much for trying to practice what you preach. We have always been on the conservative side when it comes to bubbles and it seems all my friends are still laughing at us.; August 08, 2006 10:38 PM
Anonymous said...: Foxwoodlief,

Don't feel bad. Just today, a friend of mine was talking about how she wanted to buy. I said ' you know what is happening to homes in this area?' She said 'yes, they are going up' This is DC where things have hit a major slowdown and price declines are inevitable. (Then,I sent her a few articles.)

The point I am trying to make is that there are still many many oblivious people out there who have no clue that housing is on the decline. That is who bought the $525K house.

The psychology of housing bubbles is different from other types of declines. It is slower to unwind. I still think you will be proven right.; August 08, 2006 11:39 PM
Anonymous said...: Americans increased their borrowing in June at a much faster pace than expected, with the rise led by higher credit card debt.

but the real rate of growth over june 05 is negative and has been for 8-9 months, characteristic of the onset of a recession.

we is doomed!; August 09, 2006 12:16 AM
Anonymous said...: Nokia lays off half of its San Diego workforce!
1,100 workers not able to keep up with their mortgages?

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20060808-1441-bn08nokia.html; August 09, 2006 1:48 AM
Anonymous said...: My wife and i rent (SAN DIEGO), i'm driving a 10 yr. old vehicle (paid for of course) No kids, No debt. I have one credit card. I don't buy what i can't afford. No high end cars, boats, planes, jewelry, etc.
We both work, We both save! What's wrong with us? I've actually had people look down their noses at me because i'm not in Hock up to my eyeballs! They have also asked, "Aren't you afraid of what people will think?" "What about your image? Their freak'd to be seen with me because i drive a pick up!
WHAT IS WRONG WITH ME, besides the pick up?; August 09, 2006 1:53 AM
Bill said...: Shit is hitting the fan with this war just as fast as the housing market is crashing..so keep your current home your going to need a place for yuor son when he does his civil duty.

http://tinyurl.com/kdg57

This is a time when the 20 SOMETHINGS as one Anonopuss put it...should be worried about a draft..cause its coming ..oh and I to have a son 20ish so I can relate..and relate I shall.; August 09, 2006 2:26 AM
Earl Niemoth - Editor said...: I just competed a detailed study or residential real estate prices in Sarasota County, Florida. Sarasota is one of the most upscale counties of Florida, and is 60 miles south of Tampa.

The study is from the sale records maintained by the Sarasota County Assessor's office and covers all sales from 7/1/1996 to 6/30/2006.

Summary: Average price up 303%

Four major pricing indices up 31. 50 %.

Average size of the home <10%.

Average lot size <5%

Price increase started noticably in mid 2001.

If anyone would like a copy of this analysis on an Excel spreadsheet, please email.

Earl; August 09, 2006 1:53 PM
Anonymous said...: "WHAT IS WRONG WITH ME, besides the pick up?"

Nothing, you sound pretty smart. I drive a paid-off pickup truck too, and while it's a newer and nice one, I wouldn't give anyone the time of day who made a comment about it. Plus it's those people who are probably calling asking for help moving a mattress, tv, etc.; August 09, 2006 3:28 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.huntsvillealabamausa.com/new_exp/community_data/econ_performance/homesales.html

Do you think Huntsville Al can have dropping home prices ?

Positives for the area :
Most densly populated engineering grads in nation.
NASA and major defense contractors are here
More defense jobs coming due to BRAC
Even with major appreciation still one of cheapest housing market.
Sales of homes tracking historic averages
Good Scools, thus nice for families

Negatives
Inventory climbing steadily; August 09, 2006 4:18 PM
Anonymous said...: Huntsville area sales figures

http://tinyurl.com/fd7py; August 09, 2006 4:19 PM
Anonymous said...: I suggest renaming this blog to "The Ponzi Scheme Ends" instead of the "Bubble blog with Attitude". Attitude is something I associate with teenagers.; August 09, 2006 5:01 PM
Anonymous said...: Hi There. I am a single Mom with two older daughters moving to Seattle because of a new job (pay will be about 100k). I have a decent amount of savings and money from an insurance policy.

The reason I am here is because I have been looking for a place to live in Seattle for 3 months. The rental market for homes is expensive (1500-2000). I am planning to stay in the area for about 5-7 years.

I would really appreciate some advice about the Seattle housing market. Everywhere I look it seems the market is crashing, except for the pacific northwest.

Thank you.
Sue; August 09, 2006 6:17 PM
Anonymous said...: Anyone see this yet?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14251743/

And as an aside, please support our troops the very best way you know how- by buying Chinese made magnets with American flags and sticking them to the rear of your car!

15 years since being in Gulf War I- not a single employer has EVER given me Veteran's Day off.

And people wonder why this country is done for.; August 09, 2006 7:36 PM
Anonymous said...: Or this:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14252223/

which even includes a link to this very blog on page 2.; August 09, 2006 7:47 PM
Anonymous said...: Seattle seems to be defying gravity right now. Somebody said he bought a house in Issaquah in 2005 (last year) August for ~500 and the same houses are selling now for around $650 now.

A couple of them just resold last month.

Look on Craigslist.org for house rentals.

You should be able to find something for $1500-$2000. If you're making $100k what's the big deal with that? There's no state income tax here.; August 09, 2006 8:00 PM
Anonymous said...: "Nothing, you sound pretty smart. I drive a paid-off pickup truck too, and while it's a newer and nice one, I wouldn't give anyone the time of day who made a comment about it. Plus it's those people who are probably calling asking for help moving a mattress, tv, etc."

Nothing except people are so into material stuff now that if you don't have the latest and in hawk to your eyebrows they sneer at you.

It's just a matter of your priorities. If you don't want to be sneered at maybe you should go into hawk up to your eyebrows.; August 09, 2006 8:02 PM
Anonymous said...: I think I know who wrote the chicken little comment, a person I recommended this site to yesteday and this is what he emailed back. Feek free to rip him:

"I checked out that site from chicken little. His numbers are correct but his interpretations are way off,guys like him have been saying the real estate sky is falling for the last five years they don't base it on facts.Imagine if you had listened to them before you bought. It is true that prices have come down but that is only the market correcting it's self,this is a good thing and they have only been minor.If you can show me a house that is selling for less than it did 12 months I want to buy it seriously. I have been telling my clients this is the best time to buy when the market is down. I have some economic news that I keep up with I will try to dig it up to show you. If you look at history they usually come down half of what they went up at worse and it takes a couple of years for the correction. If you think you will lose your gains you are getting bad info. Prices will start going up again but not like they did in the past 5 years. We are going back to a normal market. There is a 6 month inventory that is why so many are panicking and many new agents don't know how to sell a houses. They get desperate and drop the prices because they had them up to high to begin with. Don't get me started on the ARMS so many people don't understand them especial the media they are better than 30 year fix when used correctly.Much like stocks you need to move your money around to where you can maximize your returns it's not just a house payment.If you cash out and rent you will be losing alot more than your equity over 30 years. Tell me what is more of a benifit debt free or income? If you don't have income what good is being debt free. In order to lose all your equity the maket and the economy will have to crash. If you are serious about learning more let me know ."; August 09, 2006 8:11 PM
Anonymous said...: "Seattle seems to be defying gravity right now."

Spoke to a realtor - the one whom I bought my first house through here in the Seattle area - on Monday, and he told me there has been a perceptable chill in the air for the past 2 weeks.

We are right at the peak, and it will be all downhill from here on out. You may want to rent & sit on the fence for a few months and see what happens before jumping right in with a home purchase.; August 09, 2006 8:14 PM
Anonymous said...: "You should be able to find something for $1500-$2000. If you're making $100k what's the big deal with that? There's no state income tax here."

Thanks for the input.

I have been looking for rentals, but I was hoping to get a 3 bed 1.5+ bath.

I also would like a stable place for my girls to be, as I don't want to have to move and perhaps change high schools. I worry about renting, and then having to move a year or two later.

Thanks, Sue; August 09, 2006 8:20 PM
Anonymous said...: "Spoke to a realtor - the one whom I bought my first house through here in the Seattle area - on Monday, and he told me there has been a perceptable chill in the air for the past 2 weeks.

We are right at the peak, and it will be all downhill from here on out. You may want to rent & sit on the fence for a few months and see what happens before jumping right in with a home purchase."

It's probably not going to fall that much, maybe 10-20% at most ...

Is it cheaper to buy and wait, or cheaper to rent? If you rent you lose all that rental $.

So I don't know.; August 09, 2006 8:21 PM
Anonymous said...: "We are right at the peak, and it will be all downhill from here on out. You may want to rent & sit on the fence for a few months and see what happens before jumping right in with a home purchase."

Hmmm. That is exactly what I was wondering. As the company is paying moving costs, I have the option of putting our belongings in storage for up to 6 months and getting a long-term rental. This seems like the best plan.

Thanks again everyone for the input.

Sue; August 09, 2006 8:24 PM
Anonymous said...: Sue, if you have 2 kids and that income, and are looking for someplace with pretty good schools and not a lot of crime, you probably want to look for something on the Eastside like Kirkland, Woodinville or Redmond.; August 09, 2006 8:28 PM
Anonymous said...: "Sue, if you have 2 kids and that income, and are looking for someplace with pretty good schools and not a lot of crime, you probably want to look for something on the Eastside like Kirkland, Woodinville or Redmond."

We were out in Seattle a few weeks ago, and we drove around Ballard, Greenlake, Fremont, and Phinney Ridge. We loved the look of those areas, and it seemed like an easy commute to the city - but so far I haven't seen any homes that seemed to fit us.

I will expand my search to include the Eastside. Thanks!
Sue; August 09, 2006 8:35 PM
Anonymous said...: Well the thing is, if you're working in the city you're kindof SOL ...

Because the city isn't exactly a great place for kids.

But the Eastside is an extreme pain to commute from to and from the city.; August 09, 2006 8:36 PM
Anonymous said...: "Well the thing is, if you're working in the city you're kindof SOL ...
Because the city isn't exactly a great place for kids.
But the Eastside is an extreme pain to commute from to and from the city."

Yes, I agree, I would rather not live right in the city.

How about the Ballard/Greenlake/Phinney area? Downtown didn't seem that far away, and there were a lot of buses running through Ballard.; August 09, 2006 8:41 PM
Anonymous said...: "Ballard/Greenlake/Phinney area?"

Well, they're just more urban. I mean, it's probably not as bad as like San Francisco or something, but I'm not sure I'd want my kids walking around those areas alone. But that's just being really cautious.

If they're older (teens) it might not be such a big deal.

That being said, a lot of people do commute, to/from the city, but it takes a lot more time out of your day.; August 09, 2006 8:44 PM
Anonymous said...: "Well, they're just more urban..."

They are both in their teens. I would not want a really long commute, as I have the feeling that would be a free-for-all for a couple of teenage girls (I am joking, they are both good girls).

Renting for a bit seems like a better and better idea. This way we can get to know the area, traffic patterns, crime, schools etc.

Thank you,
Sue; August 09, 2006 8:50 PM
Anonymous said...: No problem, just keep your girls safe and out of downtown and most all of those areas at night.; August 09, 2006 8:54 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith: another blog article subject:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060809/bs_nm/constructi0n_toll_outlook_dc_7

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE:TOL - news) on Wednesday said new orders and revenue fell in the quarter just ended, prompting the company to slash for the fourth time the number of homes it expects to build this year, as the U.S. housing market continued its slide.
------------------------

Keith---you can do better than the industrial-real estate mediawhore complex, and look up the PREVIOUS comments from Bob Toll, say from last summer and the fall, and the beginning of the year and contrast them.

And get how much stock the Toll Brothers sold.

----------------

"It is the first downturn in the 40 years since we entered the business that was not precipitated by high interest rates, a weak economy, job losses or other macroeconomic factors," Robert Toll, chairman and chief executive, said in a statement. "Instead, it seems to be the result of an oversupply of inventory and a decline in confidence."

Have no fear Bobby Tolly. High interest rates, a weak economy, job losses are a-coming.; August 09, 2006 8:56 PM
Anonymous said...: You know, I just didn't get that creepy feeling in Seattle like I get in certain parts of Hartford/New Haven. Of course, I have only been there a couple times. I will take a good look at those areas when I get out there.

We are really looking forward to it. The scenery is so stunning and energizing. We are big campers, hikers, kayakers...etc etc, so we are counting the days.

Thanks all!

Cheers,
Sue; August 09, 2006 9:03 PM
Anonymous said...: Seattle is not that bad, but it's also not that great. There are bad people out at night. Not as bad as a lot of cities but not good either.

Also there's hardly any sunlight in Seattle in the winter time so be sure to take Vitamin D otherwise in the wintertime you'll get depressed.; August 09, 2006 9:17 PM
Anonymous said...: Yeah, actually it's going to be a bit ironic when Sue and her kids go through their first Seattle winter and it's dark almost every day, and drizzling, and about January they're in Zombie mode ...

Scenery doesn't do you any good if you can't see it.

You shouldn't visit Seattle in the summer and think that's how it is. Visit it in the WINTER (which starts IN October and lasts until May), to see what it's like.; August 09, 2006 9:29 PM
Anonymous said...: I have been to Seattle in the winter (albiet it was only for 2 weeks). It didn't seem to 'rain', at least not the rain that we have in the northeast (anyone every hike in the Adirondaks? It seems like from the moment we park, to the end of the trip, you are in constant downpour). It was definitely two weeks of no sun though.

One thing I liked about the area was during my visit in Jan we drove east to some pass (I forget the name) and were in beautiful sunny scenery. It only took about 45 minutes, and we spent the day cross country skiing.

I will admit to some worry about the constant grey days I have heard endless warnings about. I have already scheduled the girls to head down to their grandparents for their Christmas break.

I guess we shall see how it goes.

Sue; August 09, 2006 10:05 PM
Markus Arelius said...: I'm a renter in OC, California and wasn't too happy to read this prediction for 2007:

http://blogs.ocregister.com/lansner/

I guess everything for homeowners is just hunky-dorry since the Fed's decision to pause rates.; August 10, 2006 12:30 AM
foxwoodlief said...: "ZURICH (Reuters) - Oslo and London are the world's most expensive cities, while Zurich and Geneva residents have the highest buying power, according to a report released on Wednesday.

Europe dominates the list of 71 cities compiled by Swiss bank UBS, while Asian cities -- including Kuala Lumpur and Mumbai -- are among the cheapest places to live, based on the cost of a basket of 122 goods and services.

Oslo maintained its top position from 2005, while London rose three places to second.

Copenhagen, Zurich and Tokyo round out the top five, with New York in seventh place globally.

But London and New York are the most expensive cities when housing costs are included, said the 52-page report.

"It's no wonder that their residents often tolerate extreme commutes in order to find affordable housing," it said.

North American workers earn the highest wages, closely followed by Western Europe. But European net earnings are significantly lower because of higher taxes and social security contributions.

Total pay packets were biggest in Copenhagen, Oslo and Zurich -- but residents of the Nordic cities lose out when tax is taken into account.

"After statutory deductions, people living in the Swiss cities, Dublin and Los Angeles have the most left over from their wages," said the report.

London rose from 15th place to sixth in the gross wages ranking, but was only 20th in domestic purchasing power.

Kuala Lumpur was the cheapest city, followed by Mumbai, Buenos Aires and Delhi. Delhi was also among the bottom five cities in both the wages and purchasing power rankings.

Cities in eastern Europe and China were among the least expensive, while Asian cities have the longest working hours, with Seoul workers averaging 50.2 hours a week.

Workers in Asia also have the fewest vacation days, on average 12 per year, compared to a global 20 days.

"Western Europe, by contrast, is very attractive for employees who value their leisure time," the report added."

So if LA isn't one of the most expensive cities and has one of the highest purchasing power of workers why do we consider LA a bubble before the cities in this list?

Also if Phoenix, Miami, Las Vegas, Seattle, Portland, boston are way down that list, how do we really determine affordability?

Oh, and I guess Keith is finding his stay in London even more expensive now that it takes almost $1.91 to buy 1BP?

I love reading this site and especially Ben's, but I find that trying to gather facts without context makes it very difficult to figure out what really is going on. Sort of like trying to sort through the propaganda with the Israeli conflict, lots of facts without context.; August 10, 2006 1:18 AM
Anonymous said...: This is an outstanding blog from a man named Nouriel Roubini, a professor of economics at NYU. Read his August 7 blog entry, as he explains why there will be a recession in 2007 and debunks 4 "fairy tales" that most investors and the Fed believe in. Keith, this would be a great guy to interview if you could pull it off.

http://tinyurl.com/qcmlv; August 10, 2006 2:09 AM
Anonymous said...: NY Times is seeing the light. Now seeing an article every day, almost.

Hot Market for Second Homes Hits Slump
By VIKAS BAJAJ
WESTHAMPTON, N.Y. — The brand new 6,000-square-foot vacation home, backing on a boat dock on Moriches Bay, has been on the market for more than a year. After plenty of showings, but no offers, the investor who built the house recently cut the price twice, by a total of $600,000, to $4 million.

It has still not been sold. To be sure, the price reductions have created more interest, according to the agent representing the owner, and he now hopes that it will be sold right after Labor Day, a prime season for home transactions in the Hamptons.

“My feeling is that everybody is waiting for the dust to settle before they make their big decision,’’ said the agent, Ira Birns of Prudential Douglas Elliman. But, he acknowledged ruefully, “there is a lot to choose from.’’

It is not just the most expensive vacation homes that are going begging. The once-bustling deal making in a wide variety of popular locations for second homes — areas like Florida, the Jersey Shore and Lake Tahoe, as well as the high-price playground on the East End of Long Island — has slowed markedly in recent months. [Page C1.]

As the overall housing market weakens, the interest in buying vacation homes, from the most modest condominiums on up, appears to be falling faster. Unlike most metropolitan areas — where underlying demand and the normal turnover in primary homes as a result of job moves, new households and family changes provide a more solid floor under prices — the second-home market relies on a different set of motivations that tends to exaggerate booms and busts.

“Second-home buying is very discretionary,” said Edward Leamer, an economist at the University of California, Los Angeles. “There is no force of demographics that is pushing people into buying homes as there is in primary home markets.”

In second-home markets around the country, the number of sales is shrinking even as the properties on the market increase. Prices at all levels are softening, and in a few places recently have begun dropping.

In Florida, price declines have been most pronounced in areas dominated by second-home sales. In June, median prices — half the homes sold for more and half for less — fell 8 percent from a year earlier in Naples and nearby Marco Island on the west coast and 10 percent in Panama City in the Panhandle, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.

By comparison, prices rose 3 percent statewide, 4 percent in Miami and 10 percent in Orlando. (In addition to the overbuilding factor, home sales in many coastal areas of Florida have been hurt by rapidly rising insurance premiums tied to the greater risk of hurricane damage.)

Paul J. Ciotti, 60, a retired New York teacher, has had his two-bedroom beachfront condominium in Naples on the market since late last year. He first asked $999,000, when “everybody was going for pie in the sky.”

[He has since cut the price to $799,000, which he says is a bargain because there is little undeveloped beachfront property left in Naples. “The beachfront is still much stronger,” he said. “It always will be.”]

While the market’s strength will be tested this fall, there is little doubt that waterfront property has had a nice run in Naples and elsewhere. Mr. Ciotti’s apartment sold for $153,000 in 1987 when the building opened; he bought it for $515,000 in 2004, according to county property records.

During the boom, prices in regions with a heavy concentration of second-home sales rose higher and faster than elsewhere, an analysis by Moody’s Economy.com of national mortgage and housing data showed.

In 2004, the latest year for which data is available, Ocean City, N.J., at 73 percent, headed the list of metropolitan areas with high shares of second homes. From 2002 to 2005, home prices in the area, which includes Cape May, rose at an average annual rate of 17 percent, compared with 10 percent for the nation as a whole and 14 percent for New Jersey.

“These have been the most juiced-up markets,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com.

But this spring and summer, median home prices in the Ocean City area have fallen by 10 to 15 percent from a year earlier. Sales have slowed and more houses are sitting on the market, according to Nicholas J. Marotta, president of the Ocean City Board of Realtors.

He blames speculators for rapidly inflating and then depressing the market by trading in condominiums and oceanfront homes that they bought with low-interest loans requiring only small down payments.

A local developer added that new construction had flooded the market, with more than 100 homes priced at $2 million or more. “We believed in our own confidence,’’ said the developer, Raffaele Pansini, who has been building homes for nine years. “And in a way, we proved ourselves wrong because we don’t have 100 buyers coming in.”

Like others in the area, he predicted that demand would eventually catch up but that this could take some time.

Elsewhere, increased worries about rising interest rates, higher energy costs and a slowing economy have left some prospective buyers queasy about investing in a second or third property.

That is the experience of Shari Chase, whose real estate firm, Chase International, specializes in the Lake Tahoe winter ski and summer recreation area that straddles the California-Nevada border. Sales fell 35 percent in the first six months of 2006 from the period a year earlier. Prices eked out a 2 percent increase, according to DataQuick Information Systems, a research firm.

Vacation homes, like other luxury items, are frequently caught up in booms that appear to defy gravity. But they depend on a relatively narrow slice of the population, mostly affluent baby boomers, leaving them vulnerable to sudden downturns.

While a number of vacation homes are bought with cash, mortgage data suggests that second homes made up about 14 percent of all home sales in 2004, up from 8.4 percent in 2001.

A survey of consumer finances conducted every three years by the Federal Reserve found that the overall interest in second homes tends to closely follow the ups and downs of the economic cycle. In 1989, some 13.4 percent of those responding said they owned a second home, but that figure fell during the recession in the early 1990’s and reached a low point of 11.9 percent in 1995. Such ownership rose to 13 percent in 1998 but fell back to 11.4 percent in 2001 before rising to 12.6 percent in 2004.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that vacation homes might have reached a new high-water mark in 2005.

“I saw a lot of clients buy first and ask questions later on second and third properties,” said Leo P. Grohowski, chief investment officer at U.S. Trust, which caters to affluent families.

Much of Florida and the Jersey Shore, areas considerably more affordable than the Hamptons, have been favored destinations lately for his well-to-do clients and friends, many of whom encouraged Mr. Grohowski to buy with them. He is happy that he resisted, he said, though “for a while, I was looking like a dummy.”

Real estate experts note that second-home markets have a natural self-correcting mechanism. However much local people may believe in their particular slice of paradise, destinations can price themselves out of the market. Plenty of people are willing to pay more for waterfront property, privacy and pristine vistas, but no region has a monopoly on those features.

“This is a very efficient market,” said Richard A. Smith, vice chairman and president of Realogy, the former real estate arm of Cendant that owns Coldwell Banker and Sotheby’s International Realty. “When you don’t like the pricing someplace, you can go someplace else.”

Still, the market for high luxury, homes costing more than $5 million, tends to be more resilient, said George R. Simpson, president of the Suffolk Research Service, a firm that monitors the real estate market in the East End of Long Island.

“This is a market that is driven by ego and wannabes,” he said. “People come here because it’s the thing to do. Every time P. Diddy has a cocktail party, the prices go up a little.”

But data collected by Mr. Simpson’s firm shows that even the Hamptons are not impervious to weakness. Median home prices in East Hampton and Southampton, including the surrounding villages and hamlets, languished in the low $200,000’s for most of the 1990’s. Adjusted for inflation, prices did not climb past their 1990 levels until the end of the decade.

But for the first six months of 2006, median prices are up 4 percent in Southampton, to $766,000, and 13 percent in East Hampton, to $900,000, according to Suffolk Research, though some of that could reflect a shift in sales toward the top of the market. The number of sales, however, is down 14 percent in Southampton and 19 percent in East Hampton.

Although agents insist that nothing akin to the 1990’s slump is setting in, they are spending more time promoting properties and hand-holding sellers — exercises considered unnecessary when homes were moving in a week or so and bidding wars were common.

Earlier this month, Elisabeth Mills, an East Hampton agent who works at the Corcoran Group, started showing a commercial on cable TV for a $2.3 million modern home, down from $2.5 million, and another home, built on speculation and offered at $1.99 million. The second property is in a neighborhood where Donna Karan, the fashion designer, and the rap star and entrepreneur P. Diddy live.

Ms. Mills is paying for the 30-second spot, which pans through the interiors and exteriors of the homes and is being shown on CNBC, HGTV and a local cable news channel in Suffolk County, in hopes that it will create extra buzz among agents and potential buyers.

Response to the ad has been “pretty amazing,” she said, particularly from other builders looking for ways to market their own homes. “We seem to have increased activity from brokers,” she said.

Walter Priestley, who built the larger house in the ad, said the marketing campaign for the property also includes direct mail and open houses (wine and cheese on Saturdays; bagels and coffee on Sundays) — all in an effort to set his home apart from others. He says he is confident it will be sold by Labor Day.

“There are still plenty of buyers,” Mr. Priestly said. “We have 20 to 30 people showing up every time we have an open house.”; August 10, 2006 3:48 AM
Anonymous said...: In Bakersfield we have 4500 current listings, vs. 900 a year ago...

Prices will either have to come down or homes won't be sold...; August 10, 2006 8:00 AM
Anonymous said...: Just got back from a walk around my house. ALL the house for sale have sold, won't know if they were discount until the sale info comes out in the newspaper. I'm in Norfolk, Va.; August 10, 2006 2:17 PM
Anonymous said...: The real estate economy in the Hamptons is a bit out of control. the entire economy there revolves around real estate. if it crashes after a record year of wall st. bonuses, then you know the country is in trouble. lawns are littered with for sale signs, with a new house going up every day. inventory is building. if you are interested in New York/Hamptons real estate market, check out this site.

SpecHampton.com; August 10, 2006 2:52 PM
Anonymous said...: Hey Keith,
Your in MSM.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/14252223/; August 10, 2006 6:12 PM
foxwoodlief said...: Well, actually it is Ben who is in MSN and a link to other blog sites that includes this one. Ben is more of a factual kind of guy, give the facts and articles and let the readers add their perspective. Keith likes to sensationalize and loves playing the "devil's advocate."
But as Ben states, he does make a living off his blog now and that is why Keith is in London, living off his blog.

Still, here is a quote from Ben:
Question from Reporter,
"Do you have any other economic predictions outside housing?"
Answer,
"Looking back at what our experience was in Texas, which was an oil and real estate bust [in the 1980's], [this] is not going to be as bad as some people might want to make it out to be. At the time in Texas it was kind of gloomy, but having lived through it, it was just a few years of a downturn."

I think this expresses a major difference between Keith and Ben. I think a lot of people will be hurt if they are in bubble markets and have way over paid but I still see a lot of money out there and a lot of people doing very well so a major decline in prices will hurt those who can least afford to loose (as always) but over all the majority will lick their wounds and life goes on.; August 10, 2006 7:21 PM
Anonymous said...: I moved out to Seattle in '95 from North Kackolacky. All in all, awesome. I've lived in many places in the "south" and this place is just great. If you love the outdoors, you will love this place. If you love the indoors, you will love this place. One note of caution on the weather; Don't base your assesment of the general weather on one full years worth. Most summers are long and dry, but 2 in the past 10 years have been wet. Most winters are short and wet, but some have been dry. Overcast is commonplace, i will agree with that. When it rains, it drizzles...and for the most part you can function outside with it. When I first moved here, it was like I was in a movie set, I kept thinking, "Ok, you can kill the backdrop now." I sent a video back to the folks from hiking, sking, and kayaking...and they asked what states I was in while doing so. Haahahaha. I told them i was an hour away from home in each case. Housing is out of sync with the rest of the country, or atleast trailing. We have un-substatiated price increases and a majority of loans are arm and io, so I can imagine we will fall in line eventually. This area's economy can turn on a dime, be aware.; August 10, 2006 7:58 PM
Anonymous said...: Seattle winter bad? BWHHAHHAHHAHA

I moved from Seattle to Syracuse NY for school and now I'm back in seattle.
If you want to see grey sky's and a depressing winter go to syracuse.

Hell, even NYC had more inches of rainfall then seattle did last year.

Is it grey and rainy in seattle?
sure it is, but it's also a hell of a lot more grey and rainy (and cold and snowy) in other areas of the country as well.; August 10, 2006 8:10 PM
Anonymous said...: Seattle winter bad? BWHHAHHAHHAHA

I moved from Seattle to Syracuse NY for school and now I'm back in seattle.
If you want to see grey sky's and a depressing winter go to syracuse.

Hell, even NYC had more inches of rainfall then seattle did last year.

Is it grey and rainy in seattle?
sure it is, but it's also a hell of a lot more grey and rainy (and cold and snowy) in other areas of the country as well.; August 10, 2006 8:10 PM
blogger said...: ben said he makes his living off his blog? damn! he's either 1) really poor or 2) gets 100 times the traffic of HP

We get 5,000 uniques a day here, and the blog makes around $5 a day. Seriously. Even if Ben is getting 50,000 a day, with the same google ads, making $50 a day, that's what, $18,000 a year?

Come on.

He's weird in my book. Classic paranoid, censors, doesn't link to HP (poor form amongst the blogging community) and not a team player against the REIC. And his blog is not a fun read.

What do you think?; August 10, 2006 9:51 PM
Anonymous said...: Ha,Ha, house next door just sold for higher then asking price. Must be a great area to live, or maybe it is not in a crash zone. I case you were wondering it's in Oregon. Come by Keith and I'll buy you a pint.; August 10, 2006 10:03 PM
Anonymous said...: A month or two ago I ran into an old aquaintence of mine(a San Diego realtor). Some casual catch up conversation, yada yada. Then i asked "How's the market" I was amazed, even though we've known each other for years, the realtor sales pitch kicked in. "Never Better!" sales brisk, lots of showings, friendly interest rates, etc. He told me, If I was interested "I had better get in Now before rates go up! Now's never been a better time! So. Cal. real estate can and will 'Never' go down! Even being friend's, this guy couldn't be straight with me, and cut through the Crap!

I remarked thst my wife and i had recently viewed property out of state. He just laughed, and said he would hold up 'Any' San Diego property to anywhere else in the country. When i explained what i could buy for the same amount elsewhere, he just continued to laugh! Climbed into his new BMW and drove away.

Well, two months have gone by and Reality has set in enough that he said, "he wasn't doing very well", on sales, showings, write-up anything! Normally 3 or 4, maybe 5 showings a day. Nothing! The phone has stopped it's ringing. BUT, he was hopeful this was just a short 'cooling' off period.

Well, i think i've got news for him that his cooling off period my be a little longer than he's hoping for.; August 11, 2006 3:27 AM
Anonymous said...: He's weird in my book. Classic paranoid, censors, doesn't link to HP (poor form amongst the blogging community) and not a team player against the REIC. And his blog is not a fun read.

What do you think?

No wonder he makes a lot more off his blog than you. You get 5 bucks a day because nobody in the mainstream would even think about advertising with you or partnering with you. If that's what you want, that's fine, but don't act like you're shocked about this. Ben takes housing bubble news and consolidates it into an easy-to-read format. Seems pretty easy to me, but it works.; August 11, 2006 4:10 AM
Anonymous said...: They guy that said an Oregon house sold for over market please provide the MLS #, I think you are full of crap.

I've not a seen a house go over market in the US of A all summer!

Prices are dropping now even in the top markets such as New York and Orange County.

By the time this story truely hits the front pages it will be too late for all you suckers.; August 11, 2006 6:58 AM
Anonymous said...: The OC Register is own by NAR.

Desperation setting in.; August 11, 2006 7:07 AM
blogger said...: nice thing is I have no desire to make a living off of the blog - I do it for fun and for community service

as to advertisers - google ads populate automatically, so ben and I have the same ads generally

he just must eat cat food for dinner, where I like a nice sirloin; August 11, 2006 9:59 AM
Anonymous said...: Ok
Who is Ben and where is his blog?
I want to judge for myself; August 11, 2006 2:51 PM
Anonymous said...: Hey Keith,
Are you Dead?; August 11, 2006 2:58 PM
Anonymous said...: There you are....(:; August 11, 2006 3:18 PM
Anonymous said...: RC
go here to see for your self re Ben and his blog.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/14252223/; August 11, 2006 3:50 PM
Anonymous said...: I actually saw a realtor brag that she sold a home "over listing" price recently. Sacramento area called Roseville. So I checked it out. Yep, listed at $639,900. You can see it at http://www.jalone.com/id45.html .
Sold for $640,000 in June 2006. So technically she is right, as it went $100 over list price. Prior owner paid $480,000 two years ago. Poor suckers that bought it will soon be overmortgaged with their $500,000 loan, as prices retreat below $200/sf and the property drops below $540,000.
It is interesting, ALL her other listings have been sitting and going thru price reductions. I guess there always has to be the last sucker out the door.; August 11, 2006 3:59 PM
Anonymous said...: "He's weird in my book. Classic paranoid, censors, doesn't link to HP (poor form amongst the blogging community) and not a team player against the REIC. And his blog is not a fun read."

I don't like the pissing contest between HP and HBB. Each blog caters to a different dimension of the housing bubble. HBB has very educated discussions generally related to credit, houses, and economy while HP has sensational discussions of the world events affecting the housing market.

Ben might make a lot more off advertising because I check that blog 20x a day and this one 2-3x a day because HBB gets a lot more comments. But hey, $5 a day isn't too shabby, that will pay for a couple Budwesier drafts!; August 11, 2006 4:06 PM
Anonymous said...: In fact, now that I poke around her web site, she has a larger version of the same "over listing sold" model, now for sale for $15,000 less than the "Suckers" paid. And that is the LISTING PRICE. See at http://www.jalone.com/id60.html
Who is going to be the last person to lose hundreds of thousands buying this line of BS??; August 11, 2006 4:08 PM
Anonymous said...: "ben said he makes his living off his blog? damn! he's either 1) really poor or 2) gets 100 times the traffic of HP"

Ben's blog is like elevator music.; August 11, 2006 4:38 PM
Anonymous said...: The pros and cons of bubble sitting...

"'He's playing a bit of roulette,' says Jim Gillespie, CEO of Coldwell Banker, who doesn't think even that scenario justifies bubble sitting. 'Look at the history of prices in this country. [Postwar prices] have never gone down...My advice is don't do it,' Gillespie said. 'If the Feds stop raising rates, mortgages will start to go down and prices will recover.'"

http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/11/real_estate/bubble_sitting/index.htm; August 11, 2006 4:56 PM
Anonymous said...: I heard about several builders in my area trying to unload big chunks of condos/apartements in new developments that have not sold to wealthy investors/funds. For example, Condos that sold for 220K are being offered for 85K (the builder was trying to offload 4/5 of the community that is not sold yet). And this is not the only deal to be had.
Looks like until the builders can offload the inventory, this is going to be ugly.; August 11, 2006 5:13 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.beverlyhillspeople.com/realEstate.asp

On this site is a video interview from one of Coldewll Banker California's top agents Jade Mills that helps put thing in perspective. Should we be afraid, we should not be afraid? see for you self...; August 11, 2006 6:00 PM
Anonymous said...: You have GOT to see this... desperation in Portland, Oregon!

http://portland.craigslist.org/mlt/cas/192881144.html

Ben
(not the housing guy); August 11, 2006 6:14 PM
Markus Arelius said...: Southern Cal economy registering larger job layoffs. Another bit of good news for local homeowners who expect that "15% in the bag."

Check it out:
http://blogs.ocregister.com/lansner/

Dammit Gary Watts, people are going to want to strangle you!; August 11, 2006 6:42 PM
Anonymous said...: "http://portland.craigslist.org/mlt/cas/192881144.html"

Is removed ... dang ... what did it say?; August 11, 2006 6:55 PM
Bill said...: WARNING

The US Department of Homeland Security has urged Windows users to install the latest patches from Microsoft as quickly as possible.

In particular it warned about one bug fixed in the latest batch of security updates that, if exploited, could put a PC under the control of an attacker.

I still use SP1. Never a problem. Just another scare tactic for the sheep to upload. Would you like me to reveal to program?? Hint, It has to do with MS Vista. See the poor fucks that download this will realise that they need to upgrade to vista software for computer to work...In the future, your the trojan and infection. Prepare for a civil lawsuit. Source code has been released on internet. Homeland security, stick with drug running and false flags in threat attack security. You are out of your league when it comes to computers. You can barely hold your "boy that cried wolf" stories correctly. DO NOT DOWNLOAD NEW PATCH. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!!!; August 11, 2006 7:39 PM
Anonymous said...: "I still use SP1. Never a problem. Just another scare tactic for the sheep to upload. [blah blah blah]"

Oh, old school here - SP1. You gotsta be kidding me. Windows (and Mac) users *are* the sheep. If you are running Windows, you have much less control over your computer than you think. Yes, even if you are running SP1 from waaaay back. It doesn't really matter.

"So I am a hacker, see, and I click on 'Start|Program Files|Accessories|MS Hacking Utility', OK, and then I go into my Microsoft Control Panel, see, and I hack away against the Microsoft hegemonic monopoly, OK, and then install the hacker utilities (free as in beer software with adware bundled), see, and then I click on..."

Yeah right. Have you seen the code that runs in Windows? Have you inspected all the IP traffic coming off your machine? Have you seen all the extra data embedded in your Office files, multimedia files, and who knows what else? Did you bother to read the EULA?

Didn't think so.

FWIW, I am a major Linux fan. A user for 3 years now and I won't go back. Ubuntu has been a great boon for Linux and I reccommend it.; August 11, 2006 10:03 PM
Bill said...: "So I am a hacker, see, and I click on 'Start|Program Files|Accessories|MS Hacking Utility', OK, and then I go into my Microsoft Control Panel, see, and I hack away against the Microsoft hegemonic monopoly, OK, and then install the hacker utilities (free as in beer software with adware bundled), see, and then I click on...

you obviously have no idea who your talking to do you .....hahahah! hacker hahah more like lame ass hahahah! do a little research then come back here and tell me your skills Lame ass..oh and another thing lame ass if you hack and you brag shame on you; August 11, 2006 11:08 PM
Anonymous said...: The Portland Oregon craigslist post has a pic of a cute lady... and she said she had a wierd fetish of making it with her clients.. and to call her for mortgage quotes.
Really desperate.

Ben
not the bubble blog guy; August 12, 2006 6:06 AM
Anonymous said...: Donde esta el Keitho?; August 12, 2006 9:56 AM
Anonymous said...: Jade Homes, a medium sized builder with operations in North
Port and elsewhere in Southwest Florida announced they were
ceasing operations with 75 houses in construction. They've only
had 4 sales in 2006 compared to sales of 125 houses in 2005.
This is the most concrete evidence of the pressures the builders
are under. They are dumping inventory at whatever price they can
get, laying off staff, and they are selling land instead of
buying.; August 12, 2006 10:33 AM
Anonymous said...: Hi Keith I like your blog. I hope you have a chance to take a look at my new website on Weightloss Lollipops . Are your ready for the weight loss revolution!! With Power-Pops we have developed a unique and revolutionary system to lose weight - in the form of a lollipop. How Does it Work? This product will suppress your appetite and food cravings, increase energy levels, and burn fat and calories in a safe and natural way. What makes our candy even more effective is that it will also give you an alternative to heading to the refrigerator and grabbing a snack out of habit instead of hunger. The Sweetest Way to Lose Weight! http://www.power-pops.com/seweightloss/powerpop.htm; August 12, 2006 1:36 PM
Anonymous said...: Why are people so afraid to admit to a bubble or a downturn? all markets are cyclical, "what goes up......."
We've had it way too good for too long, everyone wants their 'Big Killing in real estate!'
They were led in, now they have to find their way out!; August 12, 2006 8:13 PM
Anonymous said...: Hey Keith, Please do a Blog on tattoo's Love'm or hate'm; August 13, 2006 6:12 AM
Anonymous said...: Is the real estate business a cartel?

http://www.consumerfed.org/pdfs/Statement_of_Stephen_Brobeck_About_the_Real_Estate_Cartel062106.pdf; August 13, 2006 9:45 AM
Anonymous said...: The Movement in USA of Islam as a Political Entity.

http://www.masnet.org/

Wash DC Islam Protest Pic in a China Newspaper

http://www.chinaview.cn/photos/index.htm; August 13, 2006 3:31 PM
Anonymous said...: Home Price Appreciation, Federal Study Deflate Bubble Theory
by Broderick Perkins

First quarter 2006 reports that home prices were moving up almost as fast as they were in the previous quarter, may be a lagging indicator that belies the housing market's true direction today in the second quarter.

However, federal data on home prices are in line with another federal report that says perhaps it is the bubble talk, not home prices, that is over inflated.

U.S. home prices moved ahead nationwide on the average 12.5 percent in the first quarter this year, compared to the same quarter last year.

The increase was only slightly off the 12.95 percent increase originally posted during the last quarter of 2005. That figure since has been revised upwards to 13.33 percent, according to the latest report from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight's (OFHEO) Home Price Index.

OFHEO acting director James Lockhart, says the data suggests, that while on average home prices are growing at a healthier rate than forecast by some pundits, the market is not without its soft spots.

"They do indicate, however, that price growth is moderating in some parts of the country, particularly in areas where prices have been rising the most," Lockhart said, echoing the latest trend in housing market forecasts that call for localized housing bubble deflation rather than a nationwide bust.

"Assessing High House Prices, Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions" by Charles Himmelberg, Christopher Mayer and Todd Sinai with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, concludes that trying to accurately assess the national housing market is like comparing apples and oranges.

"Constant-quality data on house prices and rents exist for less than three decades, cover only two house price booms, and are not comparable across different cities. Hence, it is impossible to state definitively whether or not a housing bubble exists. However, we can say that most housing markets did not look much more expensive in 2004 than they looked over the past 10 years, and in most major cities our valuation measures are nowhere near their historic highs," the report concludes.

Marching out reasons most national bubble theory is little more than babble, the report says national-level data doesn't serve the house price dynamics on the local level where the action is.

Even comparing cities doesn't offer accurate postulating because price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios vary widely from city to city.

The report also says, on the local level, to determine if home prices are reasonably priced relevant data comes not from the total cost of a home, but the annual or monthly cost of ownership. That data is largely guesstimates about changes in long-term interest rates, inflation, home price appreciation, taxes and other costs that are tough to pin down.

Those housing market variables also impact costs differently from city to city. For example, where the housing supply is static, prices remain higher relative to rents and are more sensitive to changes in interest rates.

"Our evidence does not suggest that house prices cannot fall in the future if fundamental factors change. An unexpected rise in real interest rates that raises housing costs, or a negative shock to a local economy, would lower housing demand, slowing the growth of house prices, and possibly even leading to a house price decline. However, this fact does not mean that today houses are systematically mispriced [sic]" the report deduces.

OFHEO's Home Price Index seems to bear out the report's findings revealing a nation of many robust housing markets -- and some not so -- reacting differently to local and national economies.

Over the past year, among states, Arizona revealed the greatest home price appreciation rate, 32.8 percent, while, at 2.86 percent, Michigan had the smallest rate of home price appreciation.
Only 9 states had price appreciation rates lower than 6 percent for the year, considered a decent return on any investment.

For the first time since the fourth quarter of 2002, negative quarterly appreciation rates (from the fourth quarter 2005 to the first quarter 2006) were observed for some states, Iowa at a negative 0.41 and South Dakota down 0.13 percent.

With rankings based on one-year appreciation rates for 275 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) with at least 15,000 transactions over the last 10 years, the top five appreciating MSAs were St. George, UT (38.40 percent); Naples-Marco Island, FL (37.73 percent); Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL (36.90); Phoenix-Mesa-Scottdale, AZ (36.52 percent); and Lakeland, FL (35.6 percent).
Out of the 20 MSAs with the largest percentage house price gains in the past year, 10 were in Florida, four in Arizona, two each in California, Idaho and Utah (one shared with Arizona) and one in Oregon.

At the other end of the scale were Lafayette, IN (1.22 percent); Canton-Massillon, OH (1.21 percent); Erie, PA 273 (1.02 percent); Anderson, IN (0.84 percent); and Saginaw-Saginaw Township North, MI (0.14 percent). The lower end was dominated by towns in the Midwest, Northwest and the Carolinas.

Among cities with smaller numbers of transactions, the three with the fastest annual rate of appreciation was Ocala, FL (prices up 30.44 percent); Yuma, AZ (29.78 percent); and Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL (26.59 percent). At the other end of the appreciation scale for cities with smaller numbers of transactions were Ames, IA (prices up 1.86 percent); Brownsville-Harlingen, TX (up 0.41 percent) and Sandusky, OH (down 1.57 percent).

Hurricane Katrina area towns revealed unexpectedly robust appreciation rates including 15.88 percent in Gulfport-Biloxi, MS; 14.61 percent in Mobile, AL and 14.32 percent in New Orleans as those moving back in to buy see bargains in tear downs and raw land.

Region-wide home prices rose fastest, by 18.06 percent in the Pacific Census Division, followed by 17.8 percent in the Mountain Division, and 17.23 percent in the South Atlantic Region.
Slower price growth was clustered in and around the Heartland.

Home prices in the Great Lakes' East North Central Division grew by 5.56 percent. One region over to the west, in the West North Central Division, home prices grew by 6.21 percent. Adjacent south of that division, the West South Central Division clocked a 7.69 percent rate of home price appreciation.

Published: June 5, 2006; August 13, 2006 4:30 PM
Anonymous said...: Home Price Appreciation, Federal Study Deflate Bubble Theory
by Broderick Perkins

However, federal data on home prices are in line with another federal report that says perhaps it is the bubble talk, not home prices, that is over inflated....

....BUT ON THE OTHER HAND....

"Our evidence does not suggest that house prices cannot fall in the future if fundamental factors change.....

I love how the housing bubble naysayers (and ALL fed reports)always leave themselves an out. Shoot down the bubble bloggers and claim that they are babbling, but don't say anything soooooo concrete that you can get nailed for it one way or the other!

Your tax dollars at work!; August 13, 2006 5:18 PM
Anonymous said...: Why are all the really long and boring post by Real Estate agents?

Ponder that!; August 14, 2006 8:19 AM
Ali, in Cali said...: "He's weird in my book. Classic paranoid, censors, doesn't link to HP (poor form amongst the blogging community) and not a team player against the REIC. And his blog is not a fun read."

Yeah, his isn't my favorite blog, but it is thorough and current. Ever since Patrick started charging for his daily links, I have been counting on Ben for nationwide news. However, I seek those devil's advocates who will read between the lines long enough to reassure me that I am not crazy.

Still, nothing beats Sac Land(ing) or Marin Real Estate Bubble for norCal news. Plus, I agree that it's lame that he doesn't link to enough other bubble blogs. It's all regional, and it's helpful to see all the other blogs pertaining to an area of research.

"Ben might make a lot more off advertising because I check that blog 20x a day and this one 2-3x a day because HBB gets a lot more comments. But hey, $5 a day isn't too shabby, that will pay for a couple Budwesier drafts!"

Good point, but he also has like nine other blogs (on money markets and precious metals, among other things) and has ads on each. So, it's possible that he does earn a good sum, but he is working for it. Blogging may be fun, but it's time consuming.

Keep up the good work here at HP.; August 14, 2006 9:41 AM
Anonymous said...: I am from the Atlanta area. Is Mr. Adams believable??

Sure, you may pick up tidbits about what's going on in real estate. But what's the real buzz? Here are some changes you may not have noticed:

> Fewer sellers are lucky enough to be in multiple-offer bidding wars over their homes.

> There are more listings overall, with more homes on the market.

> Homes are taking, on average, a little longer to sell.

You may not have seen any signs of this change because it's been gradual. These changes are part of a national reaction to higher interest rates and higher prices, and I think it's a good thing.

I understand that if you are a seller, you may not agree with me. But for the past five years, this nation has been in a real estate boom, with prices jumping too far and too fast. I think it's time for all of us to take a deep breath and return to a more normal real estate market.

For years, many have predicted that the real estate bubble would burst, and housing prices would plummet. That would be bad news for those whose primary net worth is tied up in a home.

Instead of a bursting bubble, we have seen a soft landing, with home sales and price increases slowing while interest rates have remained low enough to be affordable. Economists at the National Association of Realtors are looking for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to top out at around 7.25 percent sometime in 2007, and they are still predicting that 2006 will be the third-strongest year ever for home sales across the nation.

This soft landing is best put into perspective by recognizing that recent annual appreciation rates of 11 percent and 13 percent for existing homes across the nation could not be maintained indefinitely.

Economists have said for years that if real estate prices get out of reach of the typical buyer, those prices would become volatile. That would produce the kind of roller-coaster ride in home prices that no one wants to see. Instead, the Atlanta area has been especially blessed with steady but moderate price appreciation in the past decade.

Because Atlanta's median home price remains well below the national average, there is still room for appreciation, whatever that figure may be. The national median existing-home price for all housing types is expected to rise 5.3 percent to $231,300 this year. The most recent data for metro Atlanta show a median home price of $168,400.

So what does all this mean? Here are some thoughts:

> Sellers need to understand that the balance between the supply and demand market is approaching equilibrium. That means the buyer has as much strength in a negotiation as the seller, and that's a big change.

Homes that don't show well or are overpriced will stay on the market. This is in contrast to recent years, when even clearly overpriced homes drew offers because buyers didn't want to miss out on a chance to own.

> As builders move to the next exit to find cheap land to build homes, look for intown properties to hold their value and appreciate faster than suburban homes. In fact, look for more tear-downs of small older homes and watch for "McMansions" to be built in areas previously thought too modest to support such grandeur.

> Buyers need to avoid engaging in speculation over their ability to resell quickly or to get a certain level of appreciation over the next few years.

I am not predicting a recession in real estate, but I expect the average selling time in the Atlanta area to grow. If you think you may need to sell your home after living in it for less than three years, I recommend renting instead of buying.

I know that sounds odd coming from me, a strong advocate of ownership. But real estate has high transaction costs, meaning certain costs are typical every time the property changes hands.

Some of those costs, such as real estate commissions and shared closing fees, may be avoidable. Others, like transfer taxes and loan replacement fees, are almost always incurred. If we go into a period of relatively low appreciation, you may not see enough growth in value to pay for even these fees, much less leave you a profit.

Finally, I want to note that this is a particularly good time to stay away from exotic forms of real estate financing. Loans with option payments or those offering extremely low introductory rates or payments can result in economic disaster if the underlying index rate unexpectedly rises.

Those who get a standard 30-year fixed rate will likely be in the best financial position to prosper. There is substantial benefit to simply knowing what your payment will be in the years ahead, too. Although you may have solid plans for moving away from Atlanta in the next couple of years, your plans may change. Should that happen, you'll be glad you chose the fixed rate.

John Adams is a real estate broker and investor. His Web site is www.money99.com.; August 14, 2006 5:26 PM
Anonymous said...: Great Blog, makes me glad I'm still a renter. My neighbor is not so lucky though. He's going through a divorce and he put up his house for sale early this year in Westchester NY. It's been 7 months and it's still on the market.

He heard about some sellers having good results giving away incentives to bring attention to their properties (Mainly condos I'm gessing). He's thinking about giving away a free trip or a car. I'm thinking there must be some issues he's not considering.

Are there pros and cons to incentives vs. price reduction besides bringing attention to a property? Who pays taxes on the incentive? Is there anything else he should consider before going through with the incentive idea?

I feel bad for him because he's far from a flipper. Going through a tough divorce is making him sell even though he wanted to raise his kids in this house.; August 15, 2006 8:34 AM
Anonymous said...: i really enjoy this blog after i wank off to a good porn site.

i don't smoke.; August 15, 2006 10:17 AM
Anonymous said...: Tell your brother to just reduce the price. A reduced price will stand out from all other homes on the MLS and sell first. End of story.

Maybe find a RE Agent that will do a tranactional agency for a discount and reduce the commission paid also. That will get a Buyers attention!; August 15, 2006 3:42 PM
Anonymous said...: Hurry, hurry, hurry! Step right up! Putcha money in a house and get rich quick! Ya can't lose! Everybody wins! Like shootin' fish in a barrel! Land is scarce, and they ain't makin' any more! Real estate can't go nowhere but up! Buy now while you still can! They'll all be gone tomorrow! No credit? No problem! Hurry, hurry, hurry!; August 15, 2006 7:58 PM
foxwoodlief said...: The time has come. The world as we know it is about to end.

Time to recall all our troops from around the world. We are broke, bankrupt as a nation. When we try to stand between warring parties all we do is have both of them turn on us and hate us so why stop them from killing each other?

We don't need troops in Europe, WWII ended 70 years ago. We don't need troops in Korea, war over, S Korea strong enought to defend herself. Japan? No need to defend her either, she is wealthy enough to work out her own problems. China is the next world power and they should take over our role and then everyone can hate them instead of us.

Concentrate on saving America. Invest all those billions in our roads, streets, bridges, airports, building industries, manufacturing, you name it, with 300 million people we have a market and we can supply everything for ourselves.

Let the rest of the world kill each other. Let France become Muslim. Let Iran rule the Middle East and then the Sunni and Shia will fight and kill each other instead of us.

Bring our troops home now!; August 15, 2006 10:20 PM
Anonymous said...: "Concentrate on saving America. Invest all those billions in our roads, streets, bridges, airports, building industries, manufacturing, you name it, with 300 million people we have a market and we can supply everything for ourselves."

I agree, we need to really focus on ourselves or we'll be the new Botswana.; August 16, 2006 12:13 AM
Anonymous said...: did anyone read the goldman report? according to the report the uk and australia housing mkts leveled off in 2004..and are now regaining steam...causing central banks to raise rates...with ppi week, chances are rate pressures will subside allowing fed to cut in 2007...should be the next leg up in housing...; August 16, 2006 12:28 AM
Max said...: Heres whats happening in the Las Vegas market and it isn't chashing!
http://www.maxsellsvegas.com/vegasrealestatenews.htm; August 16, 2006 1:24 AM
Anonymous said...: Goldman's report is crap. He lied. Simple as that.

Rate "decreases" won't save much. Major layoffs begin in October.; August 16, 2006 4:29 AM
Anonymous said...: Max, there is housing "bust"(which basically is a crash, but not in the normal sense) in Neveda!! Deal with that and move on.

If you can't, I got my foot ready to bash your brains. I already have done that with morons like you and enjoyed it. Your head, bouncing up and down off the concrete to the waste of life isn't alive anymore.; August 16, 2006 4:32 AM
Anonymous said...: Hey, check out what this realtor did about his website when called out by a bubblehead...

http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/; August 16, 2006 5:10 PM
Markus Arelius said...: Come on, there's no housing bubble!

Just kidding, man you guys are all ready to turn on a dime!! Cat-like reflexes!; August 16, 2006 6:52 PM
Anonymous said...: Will someone please make the T-shirt with Baghdad Bob superimposed over a McMansion and the qoute "I tell you there is absolutely, in no way, a housing bubble- things are different here in______. Housing bubble? I tell you now, real estate do not drop and we shall slay any housing bubble, god willing."; August 16, 2006 8:01 PM
Anonymous said...: · Denial - It's different this time... There's no national housing market and houses are not like stocks... There is no bubble...

· Anger - Look at those A-Holes down the block who keep dropping their price... Don't they have any idea what they're doing to the value of my house? Lets get them!!

· Bargaining - Just make an offer... ANY OFFER! Please... I don't care if I loose $50k just get it sold...

· Depression - I can't believe I didn't listen... Why didn't I listen!?! Where's the nearest bridge??

· Acceptance - I knew it was too good to last. I should have listened but I didn't. It's all my fault. I'll never invest in real estate again!! Now where did I put the number for my stock broker?

We're still pretty much in the denial / anger stage in the Philly area. Cape May County NJ is in the bargining stage.

I think we have about 6 months till the bubble pop sets in and things really start to slide. Right now sellers aren't willing to lower their price or make any consessions. Buyers have alot to look at and want top notch properties for a good price. Got a 100% A+ top shelf house? It'll sell for a good number and fast. 3yr old carpets with a stain or two? You'll be waiting for a bit...
True buyers that have time are waiting.

Once reality sets in buyers will drop their prices and work to sell the house. The true buyers will come back and start buying, but there will be so much inventory that they will almost be able to name their price.

Right about this time the economy will be in a recession. Interest rates will climb, so will unemployment and foreclosures. With a downward trending market and rising rates things will sink fast in my opinion.

The 08 election should bring hope though. Unempoyment will get better and the economy will stablize. So will rates.

The RE slide will likely settle out in 09 and be steady in 10. Once new construction starts trending up it will be the best time to buy. Prices will be on the rise, but nothing like this unless rates drop more then 2% from their 09 levels.

That's my opinion anyway...

D

BTW "Timing the real estate market" by Robert Campbell is a great book to read about timing the market... I've read it twice now...; August 16, 2006 10:22 PM
Miss Goldbug said...: Has anyone heard any news today from Toll Brothers?

My husband came home this evening and said it was on the radio that they are antisipating a huge housing slump-the worst in 40 years.

Strange its not anywhere on the net.

Any confirmation on this??; August 17, 2006 4:31 AM
Anonymous said...: ..."huge housing slump-the worst in 40 years."

Lauravella,

Go to www.prudentbear.com and 'click' on "our favorite charts" and to the right, you will find articles with charts. I suggest you (click) open the; Mortgage Borrowing Debt.

You may in for a surprise and just might find the answer to your question.

I hope you're not one of them. Good luck!; August 17, 2006 6:03 AM
"Hunter" said...: I really need to VENT & share this idiocy w/ you guys. I really think the realtors believe their own propoganda. I use to rent office space from Keller Williams office in the LA area. During those months I had been debating a realtor about bubble/real estate investing. Here is one of the many stories I have about this place and realtor Gary. This was my last day their 2 weeks ago:

Realtor Gary came up to me after I was discussing to someone in the office the importance of saving for retirement w/ an IRA, etc. So he asks me if I want to take a bet that he can get 18% garaunteed. Of course I say yes and he goes on to say that he is going to be one of the first group of investors in a building development. I start chuckling and then ask where this development is and he replies Pheonix! Instead of blurting out in laughter, I looked at him in shocked disbelief. I proceeded to tell him about the 55,000+ listings and the unsustainable recent appreciation. However he had none of it and went on to tell me the same talking points about the LA market:

"The market is calming down from crazy sentiment and is now becoming a normal market where buyers don't bid up for a property" "The inventory numbers are completely normal and where they are supposed to be"

I tried in vain to talk some sense into him, but logic was not his friend. Unbelievable, at least the captain and the crew are also going down w/ the ship.; August 17, 2006 8:33 AM
Anonymous said...: Wow, that is astounding....mortgage debt as a percent of GNP, versus Owners equity as a percent of real estate value, from 1965 to Q4-2005. The debt goes straight up from 2001.....just a bit out of balance.

http://www.prudentbear.com/bc_chart_library.html

then click on Mortgage Debt vs Equity.; August 17, 2006 2:02 PM
Anonymous said...: Did anyone notice that JonBenet's killer used to be a flipper? Check out his resume:

Real estate (1981-1996) Privately owned rental business. Restoration of mansions from the Queen Victoria Era.; August 17, 2006 3:45 PM
Miss Goldbug said...: Thank god we're not in debt, just a couple of happy renters....

Regarding Toll Brothers-has anyone ever heard THEM come out and say anything other than home sales going through the roof?

This is unheard of in the housing industry.; August 17, 2006 3:52 PM
Anonymous said...: Hunter,

I understand your frustration. I've been in that situation with a friend, who in fact has an economics major. About 8 months ago, we've started this housing bubble (healthy) debate and he believes that there's no bubble. His argument is way out of line and way out of the economic fundamentals. Although I'm not an economics major, but I have a degree in civil engineering and I'm not stupid not to know what is going on.

Hunter, you know where I think I've defeated my buddy in this debate? I supported my argument with charts, figures and other articles about housing bubble. Everytime he comes in with his own view, I will show him the chart. Last week, he doesn't want to talk about anymore. Hahaha! I won!

Therefore, I suggest you go back to Gary armed with those info I mentioned, and attack his argument from different angles. Do a 1,2 combination and let us know.

Good luck!; August 17, 2006 5:52 PM
Anonymous said...: Lauravella,

Way to go. You are now in a better position to buy a house in the next 5 years. Just wait it out, and you might just be living in a McMansion at a fraction of what those greedy, in a hurry, stupid people who bought them at the peak of the bubble.; August 17, 2006 5:54 PM
foxwoodlief said...: Here is a program expoused by the Preisdent of China.

Hu’s Eight-Step program professes “Eight Do’s and Don’t’s” (ie, the Eight Glories and the Eight Shames). (1) Love the Motherland, do not harm it. (2) Serve, do not disserve the people. (3) Uphold science, don’t be ignorant and unenlightened. (4) Work hard, don’t be lazy. (5) Be united and help each other, don’t benefit at the expense of others. (6) Be honest, not profit-mongering. (7) Be disciplined and law-abiding, not chaotic and lawless. (8) Know plain living and hard struggle, do not wallow in luxuries.

China is the next world power. China offers a world point of view that many developing nations will find attractive. Of course they are Imperialistic but know how to play the game and because they are new will be respected until they over step their hand like Colonialists, Russia, and now America has.

The Twilight of America. So much for our anthem, our vision of a better world. We've abandoned all that makes America worth emulating.; August 17, 2006 7:12 PM
Anonymous said...: He's weird in my book. Classic paranoid, censors, doesn't link to HP (poor form amongst the blogging community) and not a team player against the REIC. And his blog is not a fun read.

Sorry Keith, but my vote is with Ben. I used to visit your site several times a day. Found it very entertaining. But I got turned off by your ranting garbage about the Muslims. If I want to hear crap about nuking the Muslims, I can go to Rush Limbaugh. What I like about Ben is he is very cool and professional. No emotional ranting and cutsie graphics. All content. Plus he updates his site frequently during the day, making it worthwhile to check in frequently. You will never be taken seriously if you continue to treat this blog as a dilettante effort for venting your racist prejudices.; August 17, 2006 7:17 PM
Anonymous said...: This may be taking things slightly out of context, but...on Tuesday Hunter wrote, “Go live in communist country if you want someone controlling what you can and can't spend your money on.”

Which communist country is he referring to? In May I spent 10 days in China, in the city of Xiamen, on a business trip to launch the initial build of a new product. Now, granted, China is huge and not all cities are just like this one. Xiamen is a big manufacturing center, and the electronics factory that I was sent to employs 8,000 people!

If you imagine a dark, dreary factory full of beaten-down, oppressed people chained to their workbenches, then think again. This facility was clean and filled with busy, cheerful workers who seemed to take their tasks seriously. The automated machinery that installed components on circuit boards was state-of-the-art, and the technical people with whom I worked (engineers and test technicians) were every bit as knowledgeable and competent as my American colleagues.

During the build of our product, which was designed in the USA and rushed into production by management before it was ready (against the recommendations of us engineers), numerous design deficiencies came to light. These needed to be resolved right then and there, and the Chinese demonstrated their capabilities by offering solutions to the problems.

Due to the problems we didn’t finish the build in time; my two colleagues bailed and flew back to the states leaving me alone to stay into the next week to finish cleaning up the mess. So I got to spend the weekend there by myself, and did a bit of exploring. Out & about on the streets there are people everywhere, many with cell phones, digital cameras and other electronic toys. Most were well dressed and appeared to be reasonably prosperous; they did not look at all unhappy and oppressed. They all seemed to be enjoying their lives and having a good time.

“Go live in communist country if you want someone controlling what you can and can't spend your money on.” - In the markets and shops, it appeared to me that just about anything and everything was for sale there, and no government officials telling anybody what they could and couldn’t buy.

So let’s just bury this stereotype of China being full of miserably poor, exploited, browbeaten people subjugated by their government. This is the New China, and America had better understand whom we are dealing with.

Oh, and by the way before any of you flame me for being part of this disturbing trend of moving American jobs overseas, just keep in mind that I work for a company that used to build their product right here in the US, but ~4 years ago they shut down their manufacturing operations and moved it all overseas. If I wasn’t working here, somebody else would. So, what should I do - quit out of principle and have my house foreclosed?

Yes if I was truly principled I would quit and go find another job; then again if many of you were truly principled you wouldn’t have sold your $100,000 house for $450,000 and put this enormous burden on somebody else’s shoulders.

Since none of us like sending jobs to China, here is the simplest action that we can take:
DON’T BUY ANYTHING MADE IN CHINA!!!
Buy American-made, buy used, or do without.

Now that is truly sticking to your principles!; August 17, 2006 8:47 PM
Anonymous said...: How bad do you think the crash will be? I live in Canada and we are always a few steps behind the ecomic cycle.; August 18, 2006 1:00 AM
"Hunter" said...: Anon #1- great idea on the charts, I will fight him w/ graphes & pie charts. And at the very least it will be very helpful for my clients that get the irrational real estate bug.

Anon #2- 1. Do you think China is a true communist country or a hybrid? They are quite far from Mao's teachings and are trying to get closer to a socialist Euro country, but w/ complete control over their people.
2. Your example is of a high tech factory. Do you really think the same type of workers would be at a cheapy toy factory? Remember all the hub bub about the Nike sweat shops in South East Asia. These countries don't nearly have the same authoritorian control as the chinese do over their people. The factories are gov owned and the gov controls the press, internet, etc. Unions, forget about it, the commies don't like being 2nd to anyone.
3. The chinese are almost as screwed as us when comes to the global trade imbalances, currency issues. They are heavily relient on the US consumer. We all know the future beating the US consumer will take. Another thing is if you think we have an inflation problem try on 10% GDP growth w/ easy monetary policy. Inflation almost took the country down in 1989. Times are good now, but what happens when Mr. Business Cycle rears his ugly head?

Will the chinese communist hybrid system be able to adapt? I haven't a clue, but I hope they do adapt peacefully. I hope they continue their suedo capitalist revolution and keep loosening their authorian reigns. Why, because the US could use a kick in the ass from the competition to make us stronger. Economically we can adapt at a faster clip. Lets just hope we can rise to the occasion. Oh and I don't fault you from outsourcing, you can't stop the economic forces. Look at France's system and where it will be 10yrs from now.; August 18, 2006 2:14 AM
Anonymous said...: http://www.bobcohnrealty.com/forinvestors.html

Ohh "Safe - Smart Spectacular returns"... Time to start investing in the Tucson area before everyone else jumps in...

Ha-Ha-Ha-Ha....

D; August 18, 2006 4:09 AM
Anonymous said...: To me, waiting for housing prices to fall back to where they were two years ago (or longer) is a lot like waiting for gas to go back to $1.80 a gallon...

For chrissakes man, how can you compare US RE prices to oil which is based on worldwide energy demand? So you're Phoenix, well I live there, too. Open your eyes for once. This place is becoming a third world shithole with a serious crime problem. Don't even get me started on water conservation or air quality.; August 18, 2006 12:17 PM
Anonymous said...: "We have run out of nickel effectively. There is a massive squeeze in place and unless producers can be persuaded to put metal onto the exchange the pricing tension will remain acute,"

"Nickel stocks are at historically low levels and we now have a genuine material shortage. Our first priority is to ensure that trading remains orderly and to prevent the risk of settlement defaults," Simon Heale, LME Chief Executive, said on Wednesday."
Click Here

This risk of settlement defaults is similar to the recent copper short problem that was remedied by market manipulation, causing the copper crash and commodities meltdown. It will be interesting to watch round two.; August 18, 2006 3:09 PM
Anonymous said...: An old childhood friend has been trying to sell for about six mos. Nice home, huge yard, great neighborhood. They've lowered their price, are paying half of closing costs....yada yada. Nothing yet! Two months and two reductions later they finally got a lowball, Minor negotiations.... sold! They overpaid for a new home,(lower than the former home though) in a bad neighborhood, no yard, bad schools. All in the name of downsizing. All of this is because these two are the stereotypical spenders! Big flashy cars, jewelry, vacations, kids clothes... and on and on! How many others are in this sinking boat? I can't feel to sorry because he always stuck it in your face, how well he was doing.; August 18, 2006 5:16 PM
Anonymous said...: Hunter, thanks for your good response to my post yesterday
.
“Anon #2- 1. Do you think China is a true communist country or a hybrid? They are quite far from Mao's teachings and are trying to get closer to a socialist Euro country, but w/ complete control over their people.”
- This is subjective. During the Soviet times, many Russians didn’t give a rip about communist theology, but played along with it in order to receive the perks. It is likely that this is the same in China. The government would like to maintain more control over the people than it is able to, but with China opening up, the people want “the good life,” just like everybody else wants. The collective will of the people will drive the future.

The Chinese government has a plan, and part of this is:
- Teach 100 million people the English language in public schools
- Become 10% reliant on renewable energy sources in ~5-10 years
This can be seen as a form of government control, but is this a bad thing, when you consider the complete lack of a plan on the part of the US government?

Back in the 1970’s we first learned the importance of energy independence, and here we are 30 years later, taking an economic beating because we didn’t act. (I will sidestep the political discussion/blame game about the “why.”) What is the US government’s plan? We do not have one - instead the corporations seem to be in the driver’s seat, and you can bet that their agenda is aimed at one thing and one thing only - getting richer, as opposed to keeping America the strong, forward-moving, prosperous country that I was in the past.

“2. Your example is of a high tech factory. Do you really think the same type of workers would be at a cheapy toy factory? “
- Good question. My colleagues describe the same impression I gave, at other electronic factories elsewhere in China. Although we have not seen the factories that produce the massive amount of “cheap Chinese crap” exported here, my guess is that in order to maintain a production schedule and retain their employees, they need to keep a decent working environment similar to the one I observed. Remember, the Chinese mass manufacturing system has already had a dozen years under it’s belt to figure out what does and does not work.

“3. The chinese are almost as screwed as us when comes to the global trade imbalances, currency issues. They are heavily relient on the US consumer. We all know the future beating the US consumer will take. Another thing is if you think we have an inflation problem try on 10% GDP growth w/ easy monetary policy. Inflation almost took the country down in 1989. Times are good now, but what happens when Mr. Business Cycle rears his ugly head? “
- If we do have a worldwide recession/depression, China certainly will take a hit, just as we will have to adapt. And with energy & transportation costs going through the roof, it may soon be economically prudent to move the manufacturing of some products back to the USA.

As this was my first visit to China and first face-to-face meeting with some individuals with whom I had communicated for over a year, I maintained a professional posture and did not discuss politics. On the next trip, though, you can bet that I will touch on some of these topics.

Interesting - the only political conversation I did have was to ask a woman about her opinion of the Taiwan situation. Her response was, “I expect them to return to China,” which mirrors her government’s posture.

-ANON Thursday 8/17 8:47:25
(Mammoth); August 18, 2006 5:32 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith,

Could you potentially pose this question on your website? What do most people think? Will the feds allow the value of the dollar to fall or will they keep the value of the dollar a float? Either way the U.S. gov will benefit in some way....and either way the people will lose value in their investments. I think this is the big question as to where one should place their money. In the last few days the value of the dollar has gone down. Will the feds allow this to continue to happen? Or will they raise interest rates to keep the dollar's value strong. This is so important, I think it deserves it's own thread.

I know this site is always talking about interest rates...but it really comes down to which is more important to the U.S. gov. Reducing the debt (in real terms) through allowing the dollar's value to fall or keeping the value of the dollar strong so that countries want to invest in the U.S. and buy U.S. dollars. Either way there will be benefits and consequences to our children's future and the American economy going forward the next few years.

You do a great job at getting people thinking, thanks!; August 18, 2006 6:26 PM
Anonymous said...: Early August home sales down 36.1% in OC, California. this guy tells it as it is.

http://blogs.ocregister.com/lansner/; August 18, 2006 6:45 PM
Anonymous said...: ATTENTION!!!

Ford Corp. has just announced that there will be deep cuts in production this year. It will temporarily close some of its plants in U.S. and Canada.; August 18, 2006 7:33 PM
Anonymous said...: Jonathan's Phoenix Arizona:

If you've lived in Phoenix for the last 30 years and perhaps have owned a home then, then you won't be able to understand Anon's (12:17) argument and parhaps even feel what some of this homeowners have to face when their mortgage payment increases. If a house was bought in that area within the last 5 years, that house may be overvalued at 50% at the peak. It has got nothing to do with how beautiful the place is. It may be like a paradise, but if household income to house price ratio is out of whack (post Greenspan), it will collapse.

I agree with Anon.; August 19, 2006 12:35 AM
foxwoodlief said...: Here is a exerpt from the WSJ concerning August 22.
In Islam, as in Judaism and Christianity, there are certain beliefs concerning the cosmic struggle at the end of time--Gog and Magog, anti-Christ, Armageddon, and for Shiite Muslims, the long awaited return of the Hidden Imam, ending in the final victory of the forces of good over evil, however these may be defined. Mr. Ahmadinejad and his followers clearly believe that this time is now, and that the terminal struggle has already begun and is indeed well advanced. It may even have a date, indicated by several references by the Iranian president to giving his final answer to the U.S. about nuclear development by Aug. 22. This was at first reported as "by the end of August," but Mr. Ahmadinejad's statement was more precise.
What is the significance of Aug. 22? This year, Aug. 22 corresponds, in the Islamic calendar, to the 27th day of the month of Rajab of the year 1427. This, by tradition, is the night when many Muslims commemorate the night flight of the prophet Muhammad on the winged horse Buraq, first to "the farthest mosque," usually identified with Jerusalem, and then to heaven and back (c.f., Koran XVII.1). This might well be deemed an appropriate date for the apocalyptic ending of Israel and if necessary of the world. It is far from certain that Mr. Ahmadinejad plans any such cataclysmic events precisely for Aug. 22. But it would be wise to bear the possibility in mind.

A passage from the Ayatollah Khomeini, quoted in an 11th-grade Iranian schoolbook, is revealing. "I am decisively announcing to the whole world that if the world-devourers [i.e., the infidel powers] wish to stand against our religion, we will stand against their whole world and will not cease until the annihilation of all them. Either we all become free, or we will go to the greater freedom which is martyrdom. Either we shake one another's hands in joy at the victory of Islam in the world, or all of us will turn to eternal life and martyrdom. In both cases, victory and success are ours."

In this context, mutual assured destruction, the deterrent that worked so well during the Cold War, would have no meaning. At the end of time, there will be general destruction anyway. What will matter will be the final destination of the dead--hell for the infidels, and heaven for the believers. For people with this mindset, MAD is not a constraint; it is an inducement.

How then can one confront such an enemy, with such a view of life and death? Some immediate precautions are obviously possible and necessary. In the long term, it would seem that the best, perhaps the only hope is to appeal to those Muslims, Iranians, Arabs and others who do not share these apocalyptic perceptions and aspirations, and feel as much threatened, indeed even more threatened, than we are. There must be many such, probably even a majority in the lands of Islam. Now is the time for them to save their countries, their societies and their religion from the madness of MAD.; August 19, 2006 12:53 AM
Anonymous said...: What if all the people out there who took that 2Y ARM last summer say F-it. I'll get much as I can and stick someone else wiht the bill?; August 19, 2006 2:32 AM
FrankGiovinazzi said...: If this is the news in August, how do you think the early November real estate picture is going to affect the elections? Karl Rove better invent aliens from Mars, because Americans ALWAYS vote for their pockets in the long run.; August 19, 2006 3:01 AM
Anonymous said...: Just saw a book with my favorite new title, "How to buy a house when you have 'No' money!"

I thought that's how most of this trouble started!; August 19, 2006 3:45 AM
Anonymous said...: Actually called, "How to buy a house when you can't afford it!" by R. Irwin; August 19, 2006 3:50 AM
Anonymous said...: You kidding?; August 19, 2006 3:53 AM
Anonymous said...: Sounds worse the second time!; August 19, 2006 3:54 AM
Anonymous said...: Ford cutting back (possibly 6000 jobs), Boeing potential cutbacks (thousands including sub- contractors) because of lack of defense funding for the C-17 cargo plane.

.......... and so it begins; August 19, 2006 4:12 AM
Anonymous said...: Maybe they can get work as builders or framers, or roofers,or plumbers, or drywallers......oh yeah, i forgot they'll be looking for work as well! Oops, my bad?; August 19, 2006 4:17 AM
Anonymous said...: BRITISH PETROLEUM’S “SMART PIG”
Published by Greg Palast August 8th, 2006 in Articles
The Brilliantly Profitable Timing of the Alaska Oil Pipeline Shutdown
by Greg Palast
For The Guardian (UK)
Tuesday, August 9, 2006

Is the Alaska Pipeline corroded? You bet it is. Has been for more than a decade. Did British Petroleum shut the pipe yesterday to turn a quick buck on its negligence, to profit off the disaster it created? Just ask the “smart pig.”

Years ago, I had the unhappy job of leading an investigation of British Petroleum’s management of the Alaska pipeline system. I was working for the Chugach villages, the Alaskan Natives who own the shoreline slimed by the 1989 Exxon Valdez tanker grounding.

Even then, courageous government inspectors and pipeline workers were screaming about corrosion all through the pipeline. I say “courageous” because BP, which owns 46% of the pipe and is supposed to manage the system, had a habit of hunting down and destroying the careers of those who warn of pipeline problems.

In one case, BP’s CEO of Alaskan operations hired a former CIA expert to break into the home of a whistleblower, Chuck Hamel, who had complained of conditions at the pipe’s tanker facility. BP tapped his phone calls with a US congressman and ran a surveillance and smear campaign against him. When caught, a US federal judge said BP’s acts were “reminiscent of Nazi Germany.”

This was not an isolated case. Captain James Woodle, once in charge of the pipe’s Valdez terminus, was blackmailed into resigning the post when he complained of disastrous conditions there. The weapon used on Woodle was a file of faked evidence of marital infidelity. Nice guys, eh?

Now let’s talk timing. BP’s suddenly discovered corrosion necessitating an emergency shut-down of the line is the same corrosion Dan Lawn has been screaming about for 15 years. Lawn is a steel-eyed government inspector who has kept his job only because his union’s lawyers have kept BP from having his head.

Indeed, it’s pretty darn hard for BP to claim it is surprised to find corrosion this week when Lawn issued a damning report on corrosion right after a leak and spill were discovered on March 2 of this year.

Why shut the pipe now? The timing of a sudden inspection and fix of a decade-long problem has a suspicious smell. A precipitous shutdown in mid-summer, in the middle of Middle East war(s), is guaranteed to raise prices and reap monster profits for BP. The price of crude jumped $2.22 a barrel on the shutdown news to over $76. How lucky for BP which sells four million barrels of oil a day. Had BP completed its inspection and repairs a couple years back — say, after Dan Lawn’s tenth warning — the oil market would have hardly noticed.

But $2 a barrel is just the beginning of BP’s shut-down bonus. The Alaskan oil was destined for the California market which now faces a supply crisis at the very height of the summer travel season. The big winner is ARCO petroleum, the largest retailer in the Golden State. ARCO is a 100%-owned subsidiary of … British Petroleum.

BP could have fixed the pipeline problem this past winter, after their latest corrosion-caused oil spill. But then ARCO would have lost the summertime supply-squeeze windfall.

Enron Corporation was infamous for deliberately timing repairs to maximize profit. Would BP also manipulate the market in such a crude manner? Some US prosecutors think they did so in the US propane market. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) just six weeks ago charged the company with approving an Enron-style scheme to crank up the price of propane sold in poor rural communities in the US. One former BP exec has pleaded guilty.

Lord Browne, the imperious CEO of BP, has apologized for that scam, for the Alaska spill, for this week’s shutdown and for the deaths in 2005 of 15 workers at the company’s mortally sloppy refinery operation at Texas City, Texas.

I don’t want readers to think BP isn’t civic-minded. The company’s US CEO, Bob Malone, was Co-Chairman of the Bush re-election campaign in Alaska. Mr. Bush, in turn, was so impressed with BP’s care of Alaska’s environment that he pushed again to open the state’s arctic wildlife refuge (ANWR) to drilling by the BP consortium.

Indeed, you can go to Alaska today and see for yourself the evidence of BP’s care of the wilderness. You can smell it: the crude oil still on the beaches from the Exxon Valdez spill.

Exxon took all the blame for the spill because they were dumb enough to have the company’s name on the ship. But it was BP’s pipeline managers who filed reports that oil spill containment equipment was sitting right at the site of the grounding near Bligh Island. However, the reports were bogus, the equipment wasn’t there and so the beaches were poisoned. At the time, our investigators uncovered four-volume’s worth of faked safety reports and concluded that BP was at least as culpable as Exxon for the 1,200 miles of oil-destroyed coastline.

Nevertheless, m’Lord Browne preens himself with his corporation’s environmental record. We know BP cares about nature because they have lots of photos of solar panels in their annual reports — and they’ve painted every one of their gas stations green.

The green paint-job is supposed to represent the oil giant’s love of Mother Nature. But the good Lord, Mr. Browne, knows it stands for the color of the Yankee dollar.

BP claims the profitable timing of its Alaska pipe shutdown can be explained because they’ve only now run a “smart pig” through the pipes to locate the corrosion. The “pig” is an electronic drone that BP should have been using continuously, though they had not done so for 14 years. The fact that, in the middle of an oil crisis, they’ve run it through now, forcing the shutdown, reminds me, when I consider Lord Browne’s closeness to George Bush, that the company’s pig is indeed, very, very smart.
@gregpalast.com; August 19, 2006 4:30 AM
Anonymous said...: Hello All,

Let me guess, those of you who are putting off buying a home, are the same people who made the same conclusion three years ago.

I bet, three years from now with rates hovering above 7.5%, you'll have something else to complain about.

Congrats! It's never a bad time to buy real estate. Life doesn't wait for you. If you truly want to understand the local market, talk with an real estate agent or better yet, call the local Board of Realtors who will provide you hard evidence.

Sincerely,

Richard Johnston, REMAX
Los Angeles Real Estate Agent
http://www.properties.la; August 19, 2006 6:06 AM
Anonymous said...: Just got an email this week,among many others,offering a refi offer.In a moment of weakness,and since I didn't need the $$$,I took the bait and applied for the hell of it.Phone rang within seconds of my hitting enter.
I'll give em this much,nice laid back guy to talk to,no push,no rush.Says he is a brokering mediator(?).Hourly employee,no commission.Heres the deal.Wants to give me up to 1.5 mil,pre approved,no inspection,no appraisal,flat price settlement fee,on an ARM,re-adjust on the eighth year.Locked in teaser of 1%-1 3/8% over the first 5 years,somewhere around 2-4% for the next 2, and adjusting to 75% of going rate on the 7th and full going rate on the eigth.

1.I never heard of an ARM going this long,I thought the banks were tightening the reins on the damn easy money.

2.Seems to me it would pay to max these guys out.Keep enough money in the bank account to cover monthly payments.Stick the rest in 13 month CD's,currantly paying 4.35% for anything over $25,000,or T-bills with tax free interest,let the interest ride,and pay the loan off at the first big upward kick in fixed payments,or anytime after the 3 year lock in period that you couldn't pay off the note early.Plus take the interest off my taxes.Should be able to pocket a tidy sum with minimal effort.
Anybody thought of doing this or have any thoughts.Am I missing something?The old If It Sounds To Good To Be True,It probably Is keeps popping up in the back of my head.; August 19, 2006 6:55 AM
Anonymous said...: Hi, I'm a real estate agent who makes money off selling real estate. And it's never a bad time to give me some more money by buying real estate!; August 19, 2006 1:19 PM
Anonymous said...: Anon 6:55,

I think your closing sentence is what you have to rely on.

You yourself said that you don't need $$$, so don't make your life complicated, by getting into this complicated deal. If you're just doing this out of this debate, that's one thing. It's another thing if you fall into his trap. Think about it; do you honestly believe that you can sell your property for more than what you owe, including refi?

Just drop the deal and enjoy blogging.; August 19, 2006 3:25 PM
Anonymous said...: Anon 6:55,

Watch out for any pre-payment penalties.; August 19, 2006 3:28 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith,
Check out Mungambo.

http://tinyurl.com/ztscs; August 20, 2006 6:55 PM
Aroesmith said...: America's fastest growing city has gotten too big for it's britches, and now developers are leap-frogging each other to build in areas surrounding the Las Vegas Valley. One problem is that a gigantic portion of the land in the valley is federally owned, and we all how much the feds hate to give up any power to the people. With Nellis Airforce, and barb-wired military zones surrounding the valley, as well as three small airports, developers are running out of room in the dessert goldmine and started looking to outlying cities like Parumph, where your nearest neighbor might be a prostitute!; August 20, 2006 7:45 PM
foxwoodlief said...: I'm still curious about this renting thing.

My family has been encouraging me to move back to the bay area. My best friend wants me to come work with him at Monterey Community Hospital.

Problems? I'd love to but prices. 10% state income tax, for starters on top of Fed/SSI, who wants to pay 50% of their income in taxes and then pay such high rents?

I look on craigslist all the time for rentals in Monterey. If I were single I guess I could tolerate a dump, one bedroom for $1200 plus a month (usually a garage apartment) but a descent 1br is over $2200 a month, and a house around $3000 and up. Even in Phoenix, where I left, you could buy a 3000 sq ft house and pay less than these rents and not pay 10% state income tax.

In Austin, no income tax.

So, why do so many people want to live in California?

It has always been that way ever since I left for college in 1973, and never returned since I felt the same way about those prices in 1973, 80,90,2000,2005.

I've heard the same old story, prices will come down. I see corrections and then even higher prices.

If California could extend this crazy house bubble for 40 years, why not Phoenix or Miami?

I have no children, no car payments, no debt other than my mortgage and for years, and I mean more than the past five, always wondered how all these people live in large homes and have KIDS, CAR PAYMENTS, CREDIT CARDS, etc and they have two or three new cars in the drive, a boat, motorcycles, etc.

So, if I wanted to move home, why would I pay that kind of rent?; August 20, 2006 7:52 PM
Anonymous said...: "The Calm Before The Storm"

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/baltin081206.html

Good article for those that want to make sense of the greenspan economy, and the coming recessionary times. Bernanke's job will be to minimize the pain and suffering as much as possible. I liken the feds roll in the economy to that of a doctor. Many don't realize that a doctor "practices' medicine. The fed "practices" managing the economy...and often it (the economy) swings way to high and then way too low. Thus resulting in boom and bust cycles. The naysayers (those in denial about the credit bubble and housing bubble) about the coming recessionary times just don't understand economics. The human spirit is very hopeful...this is a good thing. Sometimes, however, it's in one's interest to be realistic...knowledge is power. Times change, economies change...it's life people.; August 21, 2006 12:52 AM
Anonymous said...: foxwoodlief

I live in California and only do so because I can make 50% more than in Oregon, Arizona...etc. If the job you are considering will make up for the difference, than perhaps you would be happier near your family. Not sure if they will? Ask? I have a friend that moved to S. Cal from Washington and received a 40% cost of living bonus for the first couple of years. Companies pay more in California...that's why people can afford more. If the company won't pay the difference, than don't move to Cali.

Check out this website...N. Cal will crash just like S. Cal.

http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html; August 21, 2006 12:59 AM
Anonymous said...: Builders hit the brakes
Latest reading of housing starts, permits shows more of a slowdown than expected as builders continue pull back in once hot sector of economy.
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
August 16 2006: 2:16 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The closely watched home building market showed more signs of trouble Wednesday as a report showed builders slowed their pace of housing starts and building permits fell more than expected in July.

Housing starts came in at an annual pace of 1.795 million, according to a Census Bureau report, down from the 1.84 rate in June, which was revised lower. It is also less than the forecast of 1.81 million of economists surveyed by Briefing.com.

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Building permits, seen as a measure of builder confidence, fell to an annual rate of 1.747 million from a 1.869 million pace. Economists had forecast a decline to 1.84 million.

The declines are even more substantial from year-earlier levels, with housing starts down 13 percent from a year earlier and permits off nearly 21 percent. Permits hit a record high in September 2005, while starts reached a seasonally-adjusted record in January of this year.

Hit to economy
The slowdown is important because home building has become an important component of the U.S. economy. In the second quarter of 2005, investment in residences added 1.11 percentage points to the gross domestic product, the broad measure of the nation's economic activity. But in the second quarter it subtracted an estimated 0.4 percentage points.

David Seiders, chief economist with the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) estimates it will subtract even more from economic growth in the third quarter.

"With the start numbers now in place for July, there's no doubt the contraction is going to be larger," he said.

In addition, the Labor Department estimates that more than 3 million people work directly in residential construction, and that the sector was responsible for about 10 percent of the nation's overall gain in employment in all of 2005.

But the sector has already trimmed nearly 25,000 jobs since January, according to Labor Department figures, and the slower housing starts and permits suggest even more slowing is ahead.

That slower outlook is also confirmed by a survey of members by the NAHB released Tuesday that showed builder optimism sank for a seventh consecutive month in August to its lowest level in 15 years.

"The weakening process now engulfs all of the regions," said Seiders about his group's confidence survey. "The West was holding together quite well, but it too has come down rapidly."

And a number of publicly-traded home building firms have cut their forecasts for new homes, revenue and earnings in recent weeks.

Builder Toll Brothers (Charts) said the current slump in residential construction is unlike any it has seen in 40 years, with a glut of new homes on the market causing the slowdown rather than the typical reasons for a slump - a rise in interest rates or downturn in employment.

A separate report from the Census Bureau showed that in June the supply of homes completed and available for sale stood at 132,000, a record level, and 28 percent above year-earlier levels.

But Seiders said while the slowdown in housing starts and permits further hit builders' results, it would be good news for the industry if it helps to cut into the supply of homes available for sale.

"I think we've been expecting to see this kind of trend develop," said Seiders about the cutback in new building. "We're gratified that it is. The builders have been talking about problems on the demand side. We did over produce and over build and there needs to be a movement away from those frenzied highs."

The slowdown in real estate has economic implications beyond builders' finances and payrolls.

Home price appreciation has been a key driver in household wealth, and the cooling real estate market could also cut into consumer spending, as home owners are no longer able to tap into their home equity to finance their spending.

Wednesday's housing starts report is just the latest sign that the white hot real estate market of 2005 may already be in a recession.

On Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors reported that more than one real estate market out of three has seen prices fall from highs of the last year. That trade group had earlier said that housing has switched from a "seller's market" to a "buyer's market."

"Next week's new and existing home sales releases will likely show further weakness in home sales, as the housing market slows to a more sustainable pace," said Phillip Neuhart, economist for Wachovia. "Thanks to inventory concerns, we expect housing starts to actually under-perform home sales as builders attempt to off-load some excess inventory."; August 21, 2006 1:31 AM
Anonymous said...: Hey HP fans, just filing a report from the Mammoth Lakes region of California. Wow what a bubble. The median price for a house in the county has increased from $140,000 in 1998 to $780,000 this year to date.

Now certainly some of this has to do with the McMansions going up everywhere, but when you see small 3br/2ba new condos up for sale at $900,000k, ya know something is up.

Well, maybe you can rent it out and get a good deal? I just stayed at a 2br/2ba 1200 sq ft condo selling for $450,000. Since Mammoth is virtual dead during the summer, annual income from this type of property is in the low $20,000s per year according the the Coldwell real estate agent I met with.

Let's assume $2,000 per month. Oops, 38% goes to the property management company that rents out your property, keeps the place clean and puts out fresh linens for guests. Then there is that nasty HOA fee of $400 per month. So you can figure on about $800 a month in rental income.

So on the expense side, if I'm 0% down and interest only, I have a $2,700 a month mortgage and about another $400 a month in property taxes for a net loss of. $2,300 a month. And that assumes you rent it out year round. If you even think of using it during the winter (summers are DEAD) you are probably losing closer to $2,500 to $3,000 a month. All this in an isolated town with all minimum wage jobs.

Oh yeah, and that doesn't include heating the place. I don't have a figure for that cause I was too busy laughing at the real estate agent, cept that it was "one of your biggest expenses".

The tax benefit cannot come close to explaining the prices of these places. The only reason anyone would be OK with losing $2,500 a month is on the expectation that it will go higher. Which is basically the definition of a bubble. 2/3rds of the value of these places are locked up in the expectation of higher prices. It will get ugly there when things start to drop.; August 22, 2006 2:08 AM
grim said...: North Jersey Home Sales down 27% in July.

http://nnjbubble.blogspot.com/2006/08/northern-new-jersey-july-sales.html

May
Average Sales (2003-2005): 2615
2005 Sales: 2725
2006 Sales: 2298
(Down 15.7% Year Over Year)

June
Average Sales (2003-2005): 3486
2005 Sales: 3682
2006 Sales: 2911
(Down 20.9% Year Over Year)

July
Average Sales (2003-2005): 3495
2005 Sales: 3338
2006 Sales: 2428
(Down 27.3% Year Over Year); August 22, 2006 3:04 AM
Anonymous said...: la resident,

You're right about it. In fact there are some that has a part time job on top of what you said. It's funny that with the amount of time they put in (work) in order to make the payment, they don't get to stay in their McMansion 75% of the time. I know one couple where they have to drop off their 2 kids to a friends house overnight, because both are working double shifts and are not home during the evenings. Sad, very sad.; August 22, 2006 3:09 AM
Anonymous said...: Great Article:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/weeklystandard/20060822/cm_weeklystandard/homesafe; August 22, 2006 6:56 AM
Anonymous said...: Mammoth's number 1 employer is Century 21 and number 2 is Mountain Real Estate and number 3 is Fat Freddie Realty and ...

Prices Just Keep On Going Up

Everyone wants to have a second home in Mammoth to spend 2 weeks a year at...thats only about 10,000 per week over a 30 year mortgage.

Blah ha ha ha ha ha ha; August 22, 2006 8:15 AM
Anonymous said...: The 80s S&L crises is nothing compared to what is going to happen.

%40 of mortgages in California are know Interest Only - Translation - Credit Cards!

Do you want a Credit Card Limit of 700,000 and by the way transfer you mortgage onto it.

I'm tryign to position my retirement but its difficult to know / guess if the fed will inflate or crash its way out of it.; August 22, 2006 8:18 AM
Anonymous said...: Realty Times Articles - Reeks of Complete Desperation - Thanks to this article I'm in all cash, Euro Bonds, and some Gold/Silver.

Good Luck All Your "Realtors" LOL

Is The Financial Press Trying To Create A Housing Panic?
by Blanche Evans

No sooner did the stock market tank than the financial press started to question or predict that real estate is the next bubble to burst. No one wants to see their home depreciate along with a stock portfolio, and some publications may be capitalizing on this fear to sell more magazines. Does the financial press have an agenda? You be the judge.

In the October 28th issue of Fortune, a story called "Is Real Estate Next?" by Shawn Tully appeared. Under the provocative cover story headline was written, "With stocks in the tank, Americans are counting on home prices to keep rising. They won't."

Inside, beginning on page 58, the magazine showcases a San Francisco listing that sold in 1996 for $285,000 and is for sale in 2002 for $1,195,000. The home is a modest three-bedroom Victorian home. The inside headline blares "Is this home worth $1.2 million?"

The major points of the article are that housing prices have risen 51 percent since 1995. Housing bubble dangers are strongest on both coasts. Consumers will react to rising interest rates by pulling back on high home prices. Homes won't return gains like they did last year at 6.5 percent and that consumers will be lucky if their homes return low single digit gains. A housing bubble will cause the economy to suffer.

Housing prices tumbled during the Gulf war recession and remained flat until 1995, writes Tully. Government incentives, a raging stock market, a swelling labor market, falling inflation and interest rates, a more restrained homebuilding industry, and low interest rates all contributed to moving housing upward. Housing prices are defying reason by going higher during a recession fueled by record low interest rates. Housing prices have risen while stock prices have plummeted. Homes are a virtual ATM, with homeowners removing cash in equity loans and refinancing - $350 billion in 2001 and 2002, spending $70 billion and holding $165 billion in checking and money-market accounts. Housing's impact on the economy is unprecedented allowing it to stretch instead of shrink. What causes a bubble? Treating houses as investments instead of homes. Home aren't like "shares of Cisco: If your house isn't appreciating, it's still valuable as a place to live."

While author Tully admits that a bubble isn't happening yet, the article fairly outlines the economics of housing appreciation and mentions the differences between the overheated 80s market, its subsequent crash in the early nineties, and what is happening recently.

However, Coldwell Banker President Alex Perriello still has some problems with it, enough to compose a letter to the Fortune editor, Rik Kirkland.

In his letter, Perriello points out the $1.2 million house that was featured, a Coldwell Banker listing, was on the verge of being condemned in 1996. The owner invested several hundred thousand dollars improving it, putting it on "par with many other properties in the San Francisco area."

He also takes issue that housing prices won't keep rising. "The reality is however, since 1969, the first year the nation's average home sale prices were tracked by HUD, there has never been a year in the last 33 that the nation's average sales price has not risen," writes Perriello. Through the oil crisis of 1978-1982, "there was a 50% drop in the number of homes sold, but prices still rose."

Perriello says that national research indicates that the demographics exist to sustain the growth of the real estate market, citing boomers reaching their peak earning and home-buying years, children of boomers getting into the market for the first time, and a steady rise in minority and immigrant home ownership rates.

Fortune did indeed print Perriello's letter in the next issue, but significantly edited the letter due to space restrictions. Perriello's point that the Coldwell Banker listing was a nearly-condemned home and that it had been substantially remodeled putting it on par with many other homes was edited out, along with the statistics mentioned above.

"We are now requesting they print a correction to their original story," says Perriello.

According to Perriello, the financial press has it in for real estate.

"I have a drawerful of these stories," says Perriello. "Most every negative story I read about real estate, including Friday's Wall Street Journal article (front page of the Weekend Section) is supported by anecdotal evidence and speculation. Quite frankly I'm getting sick and tired of irresponsible journalism that attacks one of the few bright spots in the US economy...housing."

What does the press have to gain by talking about a "housing bubble?"

"Their best interest could lie in promoting stocks," says Perriello, "and the press really missed predicting the bubble in the stock market especially in the NASDAQ and technology stocks. So they are thinking 'Let's find another industry and talk about a bubble there.'"

But isn't that a little like shooting fish in a barrel? Housing prices always fall when jobs are lost and the economy is in a recession, but they do so at the local level.

"We've seen booms and busts in real estate for the past 25 years, but from a national perspective, there's never been a year when the average home price has gone down since 1968," restates Perriello. "When you look at that, there's been big peaks and valleys in the number of homes sold; the biggest run-up and dip was in 1978 when close to 4 million homes sold. By 1982, it had dropped to 1.99 million, so the market was cut in half. Unemployment by 1982 was almost to ten percent, interest rates were over 15 percent - they had almost doubled, and the average home price went up each and every one of those years.

"The homeownership rate stayed the same," he continues. "It was 1978 - the peak of the market, it was 64.7 percent, and at the bottom of the market (1982) it was the same - 64.7 percent. What that tells me is that when the market slows down, people don't give their houses away. They don't move. If you look at the demographics, the interest rates, everything supports a strong real estate market."

"These national publications tend to build a story on anecdotal evidence in one market or another and try to speculate or somehow extrapolate that this is going to happen everywhere. They pick overheated markets, like Boston, or San Francisco, and try to draw conclusions from them that aren't relevant."

"In many cases, they also use provocative headlines, and that obviously indicates there is a bubble which may or may not be the case. As with Mr. Tully's story. I'm concerned that this is like a water torture. Maybe one article isn't going to influence them (buyers and sellers) but over time, all this stuff has a negative impact on our business because it can influence consumers. In talking to real estate agents, they are concerned, their clients are going to read these publications.

But as Tully wrote there isn't a housing bubble yet, Perriello's fears that the financial press is pushing to burst a housing bubble may be a little premature, too.

"I haven't talked to an agent yet who says that a buyer has called and canceled a home purchase because of bubble fears," he says. "My concern is that when you read some of these articles, that they aren't as bad as the headlines suggest."; August 22, 2006 8:26 AM
Anonymous said...: Read the optimism at RealyTimes.com

http://realtytimes.com/rtmcrloc/Arizona~Phoenix

Some agents actually seems honest by writing about how the marketing is crashing and then they say "this is great time for both sellers and buyer.." LOL; August 22, 2006 8:46 AM
Anonymous said...: This article spells out our economic past and future.

http://www.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_editorial/150951.html; August 22, 2006 4:43 PM
Anonymous said...: Man, I was just looking at Fallbrook Ca. Northern San Deigo and there is a TON of houses for sale and the town is not that big. What is going on there? If you were to cash out you should have done it a year ago.; August 22, 2006 7:00 PM
Anonymous said...: This from bankrate.com's Holden Lewis. My favorite quote now is... "When you can rent a house for half the monthly cost of owning it, you're in a housing bubble."

I'm so relieved that people are finally getting this...

So the next time someone says...there is not bubble. Reply with Lewis's quote.

MARQUEE MOON: Sometimes blog comments shed light on the dark corners of readers' psyches. Not this blog, because it doesn't have a comments section (a corporate decision that I agree with, for now). Anyway, I was intrigued by this posting on The Real Deal, The Palm Beach Post's real estate blog. There's a link to a PDF file that shows the top 25 counties nationwide in terms of new home construction from July 2004 to July 2005. Two counties where I have lived three-quarters of my life, Tarrant and Palm Beach, were among the top 15. No wonder resale prices in Fort Worth, Texas, have been at a standstill.

Then there's the comments section in The Real Deal, where "Bob" says the media, "in it's [sic] effort to be politically correct," are responsible for the collapse of the Palm Beach County real estate market. These days, anytime anyone uses the phrase "politically correct," you can rest assured that they're lying or stupid.

In another comment, "Sue" decries "the constant media bashing of the real estate market in Florida," and complains that this bashing was "started by the Wall Street Journal to drive investors back into the stock market."

Whaaaa?

Should we attribute such comments to mental illness or lack of intelligence? Maybe "Sue" needs to take an anti-psychotic medication to stop the paranoia. Either that or go back to elementary school.

There are two houses on my block that have been on the market since September, and it's not productive to blame the media for lack of buyers. When you can rent a house for half the monthly cost of owning it, you're in a housing bubble.; August 22, 2006 10:53 PM
Anonymous said...: New Mortgage Product:

Perpetual Mortgages:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/
news/news.html?in_article_id=401839&in_page_id=1770&ico=
Homepage&icl=TabModule&icc=NEWS&ct=5; August 23, 2006 12:37 AM
"Hunter" said...: Man do I love Mammoth Mountain, the snow & terrain is top notch. The real estate market however is the equivalent of East Coast ice skiing though. Just think of what will happen to a market that is already declining if they have another volcanic scare.

Cann't wait for the snow....; August 23, 2006 9:27 AM
Anonymous said...: I think the recent housing crash has really affected a lot of people especially those whose ho,es were destroyed by the hurricanes. It's very important for the government to provide housing programs and incentives to those victims who lost their homes and properties.; August 23, 2006 9:27 AM
Anonymous said...: BIG article on the front page of the Wall Street Journal today. Talks about the hard landing on the coasts and how people are turning to auctioneers to sell their houses. One lady in Herndon, VA originally listed her home for $1 million. She eventually sold at auction for $530,000, over 50% below her original asking price.; August 23, 2006 11:00 AM
Roccman said...: Hey Keith and others who buy into the box cutter theroy...you have support my friends;

http://prisonplanet.com/articles/August2006/220806_b_Disloyal.htm

Under Fire! U.S. Army Intelligence Analyst Targeted For Suggesting New Independent 9/11 Investigation
Army: Doubting Official 9/11 Story Is ‘Disloyal To The United States’

My apologies for labeling you as ignorant.; August 23, 2006 2:38 PM