HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with an Attitude Problem, 2005

September 21, 2006

25 comments:

Anonymous said...: How much do I have to pay to get this as a T shirt. I'll take 5. And to whom do I send the check?; September 21, 2006 8:01 AM
David in JAX said...: Good idea anon. I would take 2 so my wife and I can wear them to open houses. Would probably need 3 though. Would lose one when a RE clown throws a sharp opject at one of us.; September 21, 2006 11:54 AM
Anonymous said...: You guys are just dead wrong if you think prices will drop 75%. I'm not saying that they won't drop, but come on 75%. I wonder what the nationwide average percentage will be and is right now.; September 21, 2006 12:30 PM
David in JAX said...: I don't think 75% will happen either, but it could in some area. Here in NE Florida, prices would drop 75% if they moved back to 2001-2002 levels. Is that something that couldn't happen? Our prices will need to drop 50% just to bring the median price down to a level that the average family income can afford (or incomes will double, yeah right). That probably will happen. If there is an overshoot in the correction before it moves back to the mean the prices could aproach a 75% reduction.

It's really not that far fetched in some area.; September 21, 2006 12:47 PM
Anonymous said...: I need a couple T-Shirts too...; September 21, 2006 1:20 PM
Bill said...: Why not look at prices in the 1980's..then look at the 1990's; September 21, 2006 2:53 PM
Bill said...: Shit when i bought my house in 1993, the people I bought it from had a $135,000, I bought it from them for $86,500..looks to be just about 50% -+
and that was only 13 years ago.; September 21, 2006 2:56 PM
Anonymous said...: Borkafatty, nice math NOT; September 21, 2006 3:27 PM
Anonymous said...: I think if the personal income remains flat, or even drops as a cause of recession, if one has to happen, then a 75% price reduction is possible. On the other hand, if salary goes up every year (3-4%), while prices continues to gradually drop, at some point in time (years), it will meet (affordability point), in which case the price reduction will stop. I hope I'm right. What do I know. I'm not Larry Nusbaum who just bought a book and thinks he is an expert and started preaching.; September 21, 2006 3:31 PM
Anonymous said...: Get your T-shirts right here:

http://www.t-shirthumor.com/Merchant2/products/hbbl.html?Category_Code=tops; September 21, 2006 3:51 PM
Bill said...: Borkafatty, nice math NOT

obviously you did not see the little plus or minus sign i added behind the 50% total. Sorry I did not do the algorithms for you i was just making and example. And you are right about one thing math is not my strong subject..the only math i need to know is what is the numbers are in my paycheck.; September 21, 2006 4:13 PM
Anonymous said...: Nobody thought the Nasdaq would drop 75%, either.

Will home prices nationwide drop 75%? Very, very, extremely unlikely.

Will South Florida condos drop 75%?
I wouldn't be too surprised.; September 21, 2006 4:18 PM
Anonymous said...: I went to the T-shirt site.

Am I teh only one who is conflicted here? That is, the shirt stands for the proposition that there is a an inflated asset which is overpriced, yet the shirt costs $18.00?

It's a friggin t-shirt and an iron on!

I hereby submit my lowball offer of $8.00, which represents the FMV of the shirt based on 1997 levels including yearly appreciation.; September 21, 2006 4:19 PM
Anonymous said...: . Sing along boys and girls...
"I'm gunna wash that debit right out of my hair"-"I'm gunna wash that debit right out of my hair"; September 21, 2006 4:24 PM
Bill said...: Why pay $8.00 for a tee shirt when I can have a bumper sricker for a $buck..see that i am saving you money already HAHAH!; September 21, 2006 4:26 PM
Anonymous said...: Shit when i bought my house in 1993, the people I bought it from had a $135,000, I bought it from them for $86,500..looks to be just about 50% -+
and that was only 13 years ago.

Actually if you figure in inflation it was probably close to a 50% loss in real dollars; September 21, 2006 6:43 PM
Bill said...: Actually if you figure in inflation it was probably close to a 50% loss in real dollars

Actually rates, were pretty low even back then 7.625, and the cost of gas was pretty cheap..but the incomes were terrible, for sure.

When you look at the chart one wonders how we survived the 80's

http://tinyurl.com/p7afu; September 21, 2006 8:06 PM
Anonymous said...: PHILLY FED - the word of the day. . .can we say HARD LANDING boys and girls. . .?; September 21, 2006 8:12 PM
Anonymous said...: Hey, you guys are making me feel better. I sold my previous house in 1993 for $116,000, but bought it for $135,000 in 1987. After RE commission, I have to bring a $6000 check to closing...; September 22, 2006 3:49 AM
Miss Goldbug said...: Anon 12:30 said:"You guys are just dead wrong if you think prices will drop 75%. I'm not saying that they won't drop, but come on 75%. I wonder what the nationwide average percentage will be and is right now".

Do you remember the last RE downturn? Prices were cut in half by 1996. A co-worker of mine bought a home for 360K in 1996 up in the San Carlos hills which had been a vacant forclosure since 1993. She told me the previous owner bought in late in 1990 for 650K and lost it because she spent 100k on renovations and couldnt make her mortgage payment.

I bought a condo for 114K in 1995, from the original owner who paid 80K for it in 1981. It hardly appreciated at all during the entire time she owned it.

This time around its much worse. Back in the early 1990's the S&L's were going under, but remember too Home Depot and Walmart started opening tons of stores all across the country. And Clinton passed NAFTA in 1993 which contributed to a very mild recession. This time around we will have the ala 1930's depression II because of the loose lending standards of banks and no savings for the average American to fall back on. During this RE trough I imagine there will be a drop of at least 50%, and absolutely a 75% drop in the most highly leveraged cities.; September 22, 2006 6:50 PM
Miss Goldbug said...: there is a an inflated asset which is overpriced, yet the shirt costs $18.00?

It's a friggin t-shirt and an iron on!

I hereby submit my lowball offer of $8.00, which represents the FMV of the shirt based on 1997 levels including yearly appreciation.

LOL good one! I second that.; September 22, 2006 6:54 PM
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