August 08, 2006

Phoenix home price crash now firmly underway - here's charts for median asking price for the past year



I love this housingwatch site - let's you look at cities like stocks on yahoo, with price and inventory charts too.

Damn, wish I could short the heck out of Phoenix. Here's the median asking price trends for the 75th percentile and 50th percentile in Phoenix.

Remember that the median sales price numbers everyone are keying on are houses sold, when we all know stuff ain't sellin', and the number is bogus because it doesn't take into account incentives and freebies. I like asking prices as a more accurate reflection of today's conditions on the ground, and what's to come - and they're plummeting in a shocking fashion.

A picture is worth 1000 realtors they say... Now read the next post in given this context for a good laugh.. Cluck!

19 comments:

greg swann is on acid said...

doh!

Robert Coté said...

Toggle between 3months and 6 months. Ohhh the pretty Christmass lights switching from green to red!

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure how accurate the HousingWatch site is. Is has a median asking price in Portland of 365K when our papers report it to be 280K, quite a difference. 365K sounds more like Seattle.

Am I missing something?

oldboy said...

Phoenix home price crash now firmly underway? Clearly you all have not been reading Bloodhound Realty Blog.

Anonymous said...

You think Phoenix is bad, here in Tampa, builders are going bankrupt. The builder in question was fighting with the repo people with their equipment on a dead condo site that is now been closed. They came and took the equipment and the builder had to be hauled off by the police because he was interfering with the repo people. All his workers have left and now are leaving Tampa.

borkafatty said...

This is the place my drunkin brother in law said he was moving to in 5 years to develope porperty...hahah!

borkafatty said...

"Property"

Anonymous said...

"I'm not sure how accurate the HousingWatch site is. Is has a median asking price in Portland of 365K when our papers report it to be 280K, quite a difference. 365K sounds more like Seattle.

Am I missing something?"

I just went to realtor.com, and chose a search for Portland, OR. It lists 455 pages of properties, not including multi-family residences (i.e. just condos and SFRs).

Going to page 227, and going half-way down (this should get us the median listing price), I get a price of 364,900, which is remarkably close to 365k, so I'd trust the housingwatch numbers here.

Perhaps your local papers are quoting for a region of metro Portland, or are giving median sold as opposed to listings.

Anonymous said...

I think I know my mistake. The paper prints the median SALES price which they reported last week was 280K.

But does it seem odd that the median sales price would be that much lower than the sales price? Unless the high listing prices houses aren't selling, right?

Anonymous said...

probably a metro area vs. a city thing

same thing with phoenix - 52,000 listings in phoenix metro, and 25000 or so in phoenix city

Anonymous said...

don't forget these are ASKING prices not SELLING prices. big difference, as it's asking that are plummeting as there are no more suckers (buyers) left

Anonymous said...

I was wondering where the traffic was coming from. Thanks Keith.

date hits users for Housingwatch.com
2006-08-07 3356 612
2006-08-06 314 101
2006-08-05 319 72
2006-08-04 448 80
2006-08-03 448 112
2006-08-02 611 132
2006-08-01 348 99

Anon 5:27:58am, thats exactly what i'm doing, no magic.
Tracking other things too, but been too busy to update the site. Figure the more data peeps have the better desisions they can make. If you want to see an inventory summary on the home page, add "t=cnt"

http://housingwatch.com/home.aspx?t=cnt

Anonymous said...

"But does it seem odd that the median sales price would be that much lower than the sales price? Unless the high listing prices houses aren't selling, right?"

Could be so, I don't know. If it's a listing-vs-sales price phenomenon, I'd be very afraid of the Portland market.

BubbleShanker said...

Check out Salt Lake City, nothing there but Mormons, the price has almost doubled since March, guess the flippers have moved in, this would be an ideal short, they are going to feel so much pain, Brigham Young will be crying by the end of the year!

Anonymous said...

housing-watch.com...BRAHAHAHAHAHAAHA!!!!!

Wet_Chet said...

Either the sampling rate, the data source, or the precision of these numbers is highly suspect. The median value sits at exactly $350K for months -- this doesn't make any sense at all.

foxwoodlief said...

Phoenix home price crash now firly underway.......I'd say it is a schizophrenic market. Our friends emailed us today excited that the house next door sold for the highest price ever in their neighborhood, well over $500,000 for a small 1800 sq ft house (tract home). I was shocked to say the least as I thought home prices in Phoenix were unrealistic before the big run-up last summer.

I do see some listings on Craigslist that indicate a lot of desperate sellers (looks like out of state investors who shouldn't have been in the market to start with) but over all I haven't seen major price reductions, except by those who have to sell.

I always believed that Condos were the canary in the coal mine, last to rise, first to fall, and that market seems weak. The condo conversion we lived in finally has reduced prices $97,000, not counting a few incentives, but are still grossly over priced. Also I saw one ad on Craigslist where a guy bought a small efficiency for some $300 a sq ft and was desperate to sell to prevent foreclosure. The date he said he had to sell came and went and about a month later I saw his ad on Craigslist again with less desperation, same discounted price, so I guess the bank must have worked out something to keep it from foreclosure. Still, no one is going to pay $150,000 for a 500 sq ft apartment in Phoenix. I think he paid like $180,000.

So still confused by what is going on. Pockets of desperation and other pockets of prosperity. Areas of declining prices and areas of rising prices....some times in the same city!

Most of all, inflation is definitely up. You can go to the store and spend $25 and come out with a gallon of milk, some bread, and a few potatoes such. A fast food meal that use to cost 25 cents in 1972 went up to maybe $2.50 in 2000 and now easily can cost you $5. If everything is doubling why can't homes? Of course we know the answer is our wages haven't doubled except for the educated and professional classes.

And Zillow is just a joke. It shows up one week, down the next, old data, no data, so very unreliable as a source to figure out what is going on. I also follow homes for sale in about 20 cities and towns across the USA and in a lot of those places even the homes that have been on the market for a year have not been reduced unless desperate or foreclosed and even then the banks seem to sit on the houses for what is owed. I guess that means they expect inflation not deflation or they'd want to eliminate that asset.

So many conflicting signals out there.

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