If cities were stocks you could short, which housing bubble city would be at the top of your list?
August 25, 2006
HousingPanic Stupid Question of the Day
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A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
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40 comments:
I will short the capital, Washington DC. It's where all the stupid policy started, :P.
uh, read the article below - LAS VEGAS BABY!
San Deigo, what a joke on the prices there. You can't even drive without hitting illegals running across the road to their camps under the overpassed. Everyone still acting like nothing has changed as prices and sales slow and will crash. I know of several houses that now have new people renting rooms and adults kids heading home.
Miami. No hurricanes yet, but when the first one comes it's going to throw the city it hits into a RE tailspin.
NIZE NOTES:
Is War with Iran Closer?
Yahoo is carrying an AP news story with the following headline: Nations unmoved by Iran's counter-offer
The story goes on to report that,"Germany said Thursday that Iran's response to a package of incentives for halting its nuclear program appears unsatisfactory because it is missing a reference to whether Tehran will suspend uranium enrichment.
Two senior diplomats who have been briefed on the Iranian response told The Associated Press that the six world powers studying it will likely reject Tehran's terms for talks because they do not even touch on the possibility of freezing enrichment."
One would think that this must be near a last chance for Iran, from the perspective of the Bush Administration. If Iran is attacked, obviously all hell could break loose. This is not the time to be short commodities for even short-term trades. You especially don't want to be caught short oil or gold if Iran is attacked.
http://tinyurl.com/jz9tw
Very good article in CNNMoney today:
Getting real about the real estate bubble
Fortune's Shawn Tully dispels four myths about the future of home prices.
Myth #1: As long as job growth is strong, prices can't go down
.... read url
Myth #2: The builders learned their lesson in the last downturn. They won't swamp the market with new houses when the market turns
Myth #3: Low interest rates will keep values rising, or at the very least, put a floor under prices
Myth #4: restriction on development in the suburbs ensure low supply, and guarantee rising prices
"meet the new boss, same as the old boss"
"same as it ever was - and the days go by"
You can short these cities with housing index sold by CME. The market has already priced in a marginal decrease so if you are game bet your house on it with open-ended puts.
I'll be different and short Boston, San Jose and San Francisco.
One of the most insane scenarios unfolds in a country far away from here. I’m talking about the Eastern Europe country of Bulgaria where the average monthly income is $200 and a speculative real estate bubble has been forming over the past 3 years. My wife is from there and you used to be able to purchase a whole village for $10,000. Today crappy built apartments sell for 200,000 Euros. Just Google BULGARIAN REAL ESTATE and you’ll see what I’m talking about. Now that is truly insane. No jobs, no work and plenty of ocean front mudslides.
PHOENIX...by a wide margin.
I second that, Phoenix is the main contender.People here are way out there when it comes to debt, expectations and prospects...a ticking financial time bomb.
Keith,
Is all this element native and reflective of Arizonans or did they move here from elsewhere? This is anecdotal, but my findings is that most of the fortune-seekers moving to Phoenix are mostly from the Midwest...Californinas are in a different class..brighter and more affluent...but a lot of the other transplants qualify as genetic mutants and Bush voters. How can America breed such people in the 21st century?
SLC will wothout a doubt be in the carnage. Phoenix 1st, San Diego 2nd. After that 3rd wont matter.
Long Beach, CA. Overpriced and old. I see a LOT of homes built before 1950..
Phoenix, and it will be horrific
phoenix and las vegas and it's too late to get out of either - there's no buyers unless its at firesale pricing, especially after this week's media glare
here comes housing panic right on schedule
1. Phoenix
2. Vegas
3. San Diego county
4. SF Bay Area
5. Orange County, CA
6. Riverside County, CA
7. San Bernardino County, CA
Probably some cities in Florida should be in there but I don't know the situation enough there to comment.
I'm really thankful I sold my house in San Diego!
Myth #5: Real Estate Always Goes Up
There must be ETFs out there based on Regions And Cities.
Shorting Those ETFs such as a Nevada or Arizon ETF will give you the same thing as being short Vegas or Phoenix.
What's that expression? Money talks, bulls**t walks...
Via a tip to PEEK, I was directed to a May report that flew under my radar: Are Dick Cheney's Money Managers Betting on Bad News?
According to Kiplinger's, the Cheneys, who may be worth close to $100 million, have invested the vast majority of their wealth overseas, in markets that do not fluctuate based on the U.S. dollar:
Vice President Cheney's financial advisers are apparently betting on a rise in inflation and interest rates and on a decline in the value of the dollar against foreign currencies. That's the conclusion we draw after scouring the financial disclosure form released by Cheney this week.
**Obviously DICK! knows where to put his Money...Makes me know that I can sleep real well at night....
No wonder I have Insomnia.**
the 2 favorites would be Phoenix and Sarasota. others in contention are San Diego, Vegas and Miami.
TEST
Hey, Lereah has it all in a powerpoint presentation I found over at
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/
You look at the mea culpa article and open the liars powerpoint slides.
http://www.cme.com/clearing/clr/list/contract_listings.html?type=hng
Pays your money takes your chances...
Phoenix is #1 on my roster fo' sho'
Next up to bat is... Riverside and San Bernardino counties. I live here but at least I can drive to Orange County to my high paying IT job unlike people in PHX. People here in Riverside are in their own inner bubble inside the core bubble. They believe we are special and it wont affect us here. Number #1 reason they claim : job growth. SHIT! Most of the jobs here are housing reltated. My friend used to deliver milk and now is a loan officer. nuff said. WE ARE TOAST!!
Anonymous spouse of Bulgarian. Try a google trends search on Bulgaria property and you'll see who is buying it:
1. Varna, Bulgaria
2. Sofia, Bulgaria
3. Cork, Ireland
4. Limerick, Ireland
5. Dublin, Ireland
6. Reading, United Kingdom
7. Leeds, United Kingdom
8. Milton Keynes, United Kingdom
9. Watford, United Kingdom
10. Brighton, United Kingdom
I visited Bulgaria a few years back. Beautiful country but until crime and corruption come under control, there's not a chance its economy will support $200,000 apartments. not in Sofia and certainly not in the villages and decaying soviet leftovers along the black sea.
the stupidest thing about this question is you've asked it before. Why not fewer posts with higher quality of content? Now that's an intelligent querstion.
I thought that was the current home sales graph - very similar!
yeah, if you ask a question once you can never ever ask it again because nothing changes and you should never look at new input
boy, realtors are sure pissy!
Within the U.S., its a touch choice which domino will fall first and hardest. Probably a place that is just close enough to a major city to have its economy distorted beyond recognition but not close enough for a tolerable commute once $#(~ hits fan. Port Charlotte, FL fits the bill but as much as I'd like to keep the "I'll sell you swampland in FL" phrase alive for another generation, Richmond,CA; Phoenix,AZ and D.C. will drop further and faster. But the real gold medalist bubble isn't within U.S. borders.
It's going to start with the letters DUB, but I'm not yet sure whether it will be Dublin or Dubai. Both have "good" fundamentals a mile or two beneath the current prices. Dubai's economy is less dependent on constructospecuvestment, but regional problems make it at least as risky. A coin toss decides... tails... it's Dublin Ireland.
Phoenix - Miami - Washington DC and San Diego.
I should have sold in 05 bought in 97 in San diego - Hear that sucking sound - I do - its the sound of money going down the shithole for good. SHIT SHIT SHIT the only people allowed to make money are the top 11% of the Population ( The Very Rich ) the rest of us can just EAT SHIT...
I was wondering if anyone would mention New York.
New York City is one thing. Even when prices drop in the city the really expensive areas will still be out of reach for many people. Trump and others built lots of tall buildings downtown on the westside many still under construction. Instead of getting 5 million for a small apartment maybe they will have to settle for 2 million each. Though there are in Trump's buildings some apartments set aside for Police, Firefighters, and Teachers at prices that are supposed to be within their reach. I think as rentals. I'm not sure as I don't really want to live downtown so I have never looked into the details.
What I'm interested in is how the suburbs such as upper Westchester and even Putnam counties will fair. They went up very fast in the last two to three years as people were priced out of places closer to the city. I think that these places might collapse even as prices closer to the city fall at a slower pace and I'm not so such the city will see prices drop slowly either. This would be the last 10 years in reverse. Prices out in these places only started to raise late in the cycle as people absolutely had no way to purchase closer to the city. As prices in the city fall even a bit I think some if not many will want to move closer to their jobs. Gas prices together with 3 hours of driving each day to get to and from work make these places much less desirable once prices are lower near the city.
Phoenix, Miami, Riverside Co., all because of inventory. San Diego Co. due to prices and inventory!
I don't know much about the west coast, but I have experience with the northeast, so I'll also give a plug for Boston, New York City areas as ready to tumble.
People forget so fast. The early to mid 90s are not that far off. I remember catalog after catalog filled with color photos of auction properties. They were bank REOs, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac properties, then RTC. Thousands of them. In Boston, condos could be had for 10k or under in these auctions in the Fenway, Dorchester, Roxbury. 5k or under in East Boston, Chelsea. I witnessed a few go for 1k (that's right $1,000) at a Freddie Mac auction in 1994 at the Framingham Sheraton. They had to beg to get it, too. No interest.
In Manhattan, there were coop apartments in relatively nice buildings going for 10-20k in these auctions. I remember some right off of Grammercy Park, a really nice area. Out in Queens and Brooklyn, you could have them for next to nothing, say 5-10k. In Jackson Heights, Queens, they were asking 1,000 at one complex, named Donnelly Gardens, and 5-8k at another complex across the street.
All this was barely over 10 years ago, and peak prices in the late 1980s never reached even half of what they are today. I don't remember anywhere near as much speculation or easy money, or the availability of crazy option loans. And salaries haven't increased very much either since then. I see it all repeating, probably worse this time, and very soon.
If you don't believe the prices I've written above, it's easy to check (at least for Boston). Records of coop sale prices aren't easy to get in NYC, and I don't have the old auction catalogs that were sent me (I really wish I had them now). But for Boston, you can just go the Suffolk County Registry of Deeds and do some lookups for various streets in Boston, East Boston or Chelsea for the years 1992, 1993 or 1994. You'll be amazed.
Sit tight. Stay debt free as possible. Two or three years from now, anyone with a few bucks in their pocket, or a high value credit card with some space on it, will be able to buy a property.
All of them...in a manner of speaking
Neighbor three doors down (north san diego county inland) House on market for over 90 days, taken off market, changed MLS#, actually listed as New listing, with a price reduction of $85k ! Two and a half weeks now...nuthin!
This is getting Fun to watch!
Awesome Pic with state's housing inventory increases here:
http://tinyurl.com/s88l4
"So many new homes are available on the outskirts of Phoenix that it is "a total bloodbath,"
Florida has three intersecting inventory fiascos!
:Boston, East Boston or Chelsea
Dude, the next time around, these areas will be warzones, not places to live in.
I remember that until very recently, Chelsea (as oppose to the Yuppie zone namesake in London/NYC) was a dangerous place to live in.
I'm in Las Vegas. had my house on the market for 6 months. Started out asking $489, now down to $455 and still no takers. Bought it for $300 in 2003 so I'm still in the black - on paper anyway.
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