August 25, 2006

Devastating housing/condo meltdown underway in Vegas (and it only gets worse)

Las Vegas will challenge for the HousingPanic Bubble Market of the Year award, given that in the middle of their meltdown a further 38,000 condo units are in development as we speak. Talk about adding fuel to the fire, this is going to get insanely ugly, and quick.

I love the advertisement for the W condo units smack-dab in this article (from the mid $600's!). Talk about bad use of ad dollars - geeze!

Anyone want to predict how far condo prices will fall in Vegas from peak to trough? I'd guess 60%. Seriously, 60%.

I'll be in that crappy town in a few weeks and I'll try to pop into one of the condo showrooms and see how big of a discount they'd be willing to give.

Las Vegas' housing market picked the hottest month of the year to show its clearest signs of cooling.

New home sales in July dropped 41 percent from the same month a year ago and existing home sales fell 35.1 percent as the market continues its downward slide after two years of record-breaking sales and price appreciation.

The 1,808 new home closings were the fewest since April 2003 and slightly more than half of the 3,474 closings in the previous month, local research firm SalesTraq reported Wednesday.

"I was kind of shocked when I saw 1,800 new home sales," SalesTraq President Larry Murphy said. "I started downloading the file and I knew it was a small file."

Murphy has challenged the housing bubble theorists every year by citing increasing prices in Las Vegas, but now admits he "underestimated the slowdown."

"Almost unnoticed on the canvas of the Las Vegas housing picture are nearly 38,000 high-rise and mid-rise homes in various stages of development," he said. "They paint a very different portrait of every aspect of the market."

More than 5,000 vertical units had closed escrow as of July and 90 percent of the 11,734 units under construction are in escrow, Bottfeld said. Still another 11,620 are actively being sold.

Recent news that Nevada ranked among the top five states with the largest slump in housing sales during the second quarter is only part of the story here, Bottfeld said.


Anonymous said...

Be careful, Keith

They can accept your lowball.

Anonymous said...

las vegas is a middle class town with a rich mans mentality.people in vegas live way beyond their means by doing what the tourist do. all locals ever talk about is where they went to eat what shows they saw video poker at the local bar...bankruptcy in las vegas will HUGE business.

Anonymous said...

Can you put in an offer for me while you are there? Here are my demands.

1. Pay me to take it. Pay all future expenses too.
2. 100% paid limo service anytime I go out.
3. Free airfare (forever) from my current residence, to include friends.
4. Hot chicks delivered to my condo upon request.

I'll think of a few others.


Bill said...

Truly Pathetic

Miss Goldbug said...

I would think a fair price for a condo that is off the strip without a view, should go for 110K - at the most.

Anonymous said...

Very good article in CNNMoney today:

Getting real about the real estate bubble

Fortune's Shawn Tully dispels four myths about the future of home prices.

Myth #1: As long as job growth is strong, prices can't go down

.... read url

Myth #2: The builders learned their lesson in the last downturn. They won't swamp the market with new houses when the market turns

Myth #3: Low interest rates will keep values rising, or at the very least, put a floor under prices

Myth #4: restriction on development in the suburbs ensure low supply, and guarantee rising prices

Anonymous said...

Las Vegas Condo's are going to get killed, however, it's NOT a "crappy town".

I love to go there and play golf.

Anonymous said...

Viva Las Vegas Viva Las Vegas Viva, Viva Las Vegas!

Thank you, thank you very much.

Elvis has left the building.

Anonymous said...

What you see and hear in Vegas, stays in Vegas.

This time NO. The entire U.S.of A. will know the real estate ROUT.

blogger said...

las vegas is a great place to go for a few days, have fun, and get out of dodge

but in general, it is one big stinking soulless crappy town, full of broken dreams, horrific urban planning, schiesters, pawn shops, hookers and cheap culture

and a good $9.95 buffet of course

But soon it will be known as Housing Bubble Ground Zero, where you will see thousands upon thousands of empty condos, many in foreclosure. The city of broken dreams will take on a whole new meaning

Anonymous said...

Vegas is a good tourist town but I would not want to live there. It's a bit of a dump off the Strip and is unbearable in the summer.

Anonymous said...

Las Vegas is where the American soul goes to die. Corporate America and Hollywood do a good enough job trying to reduce us into a moaning and drooling mass of conformist soulless consumers. Go to Vegas to see what happens when that last shred of hope is stripped away.

Anonymous said...

"The city of broken dreams will take on a whole new meaning"

Ohh ... I see, since people have been saying that for decades, this time it's different because you say so. Right?

Don't count on it!

Bill said...

Ohh ... I see, since people have been saying that for decades, this time it's different because you say so. Right?

Is that a trick question?

In reality it is all different, we are in uncharted waters these days.

But if this is your town and you say things are great good for you.. live long and prosper...

on my planet(MARS)Thing are great here to.

all keith is saying

(not putting words in his mouth of course)

is when the bottom falls out....the desert is going to creep back in on vegas for sure.

Anonymous said...

Las Vegas, NV $334,900* -5100 (1.50%)

My Vegas home drops 1.5% today. In 2 months, it will expire worthless!

Anonymous said...

"and a good $9.95 buffet of course"

I once received a beautiful blow job in Vegas for 10 bones (talk to the bellboys at Balleys and ask for Rita)

'The city of broken dreams will take on a whole new meaning"

The city of broken dreams will take a mean one in the a-hole"

Anonymous said...

Southern Californians may have noticed the increase in Radio commercials for Vegas Tourism-Lots of free rooms-food and other comps.Pathetic too-Most of them play on the human need to follow the stupid leader.One example is when that chick from the 70s show says a particular motel has 160000 rooms and they are full,but we have just enouph left over to squeeze a few more Californians in.Free this,free that.Vegas is pushin bad.Then there is the trend of strip casinos lowereing payouts on machines and craps tables.People are pissed.Gas prices are the story though,with traffic on the weekends way down.Even if they came they would spend 100.00dollars less than usual.Vegas used to boast about 30million Cali visitors a year-not anymore ,and the ones that make it are damn near broke when they get there,not when they leave.Hope to return with a couple ounces of gold in three years and buy a nice CRAP BOX

Anonymous said...

It is a fantastic project.

Anonymous said...

That 70s Show chick says ,"dude,WTF?"

Anonymous said...

Buying in Vegas is a Gamble!


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