HousingPanic Stupid Question of the Day

August 08, 2006

HousingPanic Stupid Question of the Day

Pause or 1/4, market crash or market rally?

43 comments:

Anonymous said...: 1/4; August 08, 2006 7:09 AM
Anonymous said...: The orchestrated pipeline problems will create a shortage of oil that will temporarily prop up the dollar thus allowing a short pause in the rate hikes.

I used to be disgusted;
now I'm just amused.; August 08, 2006 7:32 AM
Anonymous said...: oil rising = commodity inflation = ben raises

ben perception as wuss = ben raises

market crash; August 08, 2006 7:48 AM
David in JAX said...: Pause with a rally through the middle of Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon the market doesn't care anymore. Thursday and Friday will show declines.; August 08, 2006 12:20 PM
Anonymous said...: my XOM and USO will do well either way...; August 08, 2006 12:38 PM
John Polomny said...: Pause with language that alludes to further tightening if needed. In all reality this FED will throw in the towel by early 2007 and cut rates as the the economy comes apart at the seams. Expect the dollar to go down if not crash and gold to soar. Some good commentary on this is by Peter Schiff at Euro-Pacific Capital. He has a weekly radio show that is archived very informative and very contrarian.; August 08, 2006 1:06 PM
Anonymous said...: Interesting twist.; August 08, 2006 1:06 PM
Anonymous said...: The orchestrated pipeline problems will create a shortage of oil that will temporarily prop up the dollar thus allowing a short pause in the rate hikes.

Interesting twist.; August 08, 2006 1:07 PM
blogger said...: aside from nuclear war I don't see a way the dollar emerges from this intact

I'm screwed - along with all other expats or anyone looking to travel outside the US

Walmart is screwed too - all those chinese imports are gonna get a lot more expensive

thus driving up inflation faster

oh, what a mess Ben has on his hands

and all of use for that matter; August 08, 2006 1:30 PM
Anonymous said...: Its going to be 25bps. The FED is a
FOR PROFIT PRIVATE BANK in the buisiness
of sucking wealth out of America. They
will use the hike in oil as an excuse,
but really its about squeezing the
debt laden consumer and goverment.
Just like the dealer that got you hooked
on cheap crack, now they increase the cost. I guess GWB has been there before...
Also, all the other central banks are
raising, and we have to stay 3% ahead
of them to keep selling treasuries.

-- El Maha; August 08, 2006 1:46 PM
Anonymous said...: 25 points rocks the world. the fed overshoots.; August 08, 2006 1:48 PM
Roccman said...: Keith you nailed it - because demand is out stripping supply in oil to the tune of 4 barrels to 1 AND because what remains in the ground is heavy sour crude (not light sweet) it will continue to be more expensive to get out of the ground (deeper) and more expensive to refine (less heavy crude refineries in the world than light) - EVERYTHING will inflate in price.

Ben (et al) know they have no control on REAL inflation so raising does not help.

We are more screwed then most people think - the perfect economic meltdown in the history of mankind is well underway.

By 2010 - expect $25.00 per gallon gas - if you can find it at all to buy at that price.; August 08, 2006 1:50 PM
The Thinker said...: This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.; August 08, 2006 2:13 PM
The Thinker said...: The end of cheap oil will certainly change things but I believe we will be fine. We have so much room to improve efficiency but while gas remains cheap no one bothers. People will trade in their Chevy Tahoes for Toyota Yarises. People will switch to florescent lighting (used sparingly). People will put up wind turbines in their backyards and solar panels on their roofs.

It is not America who needs to fear the end to cheap oil, it is emerging countries like China and India that will be stopped cold in their tracks. When that happens, the price of Chinese goods will skyrocket, the world will buy our high-tech energy technologies, the trade imbalance will be rectified and America will again prosper.

They are not joking when they say the U.S. economy is resilient. Things will be different, but things will be fine.; August 08, 2006 2:14 PM
Bill said...: By 2010 - expect $25.00 per gallon gas - if you can find it at all to buy at that price.

Anyone else feel like a character in a Mad Max film..If you never seen Mad Max rent it you will see what I am talking about, cruising and the desperation for gas.

Weather Ben raises or stays, we are in for a serious price increases across the board..everything..as an example, I was doing a side job the other day installing a carpet for a friend, and told him one price..well when I got to the store to buy the carpet pad (you know the thing under your feet to make it nice and soft) $400 a roll.

And what is this carpet pad made of you say? polyurethane foam which has OIL! in it, just an example of what is made from oil, and many many more products...we are in for a long run.

Good luck to the new President in this country...you can have that job.; August 08, 2006 2:32 PM
blogger said...: I removed all abortion posts - this is a thread about the fed and interest rates; August 08, 2006 3:04 PM
Anonymous said...: Fed 1/4% +

DOW 100+

Gold - $15.00; August 08, 2006 3:57 PM
Roccman said...: Ok Thinker - Because you are well read and appear "to most" insightful on this blog- I make two assumptions 1) you have a fairly tough skin and 2) you have spent NO TIME truely researching peak oil.

You do a tremendous diservice to this blog and to people you spray with nonsense and disinformation - I will not do your research for you, but you really do need to go to www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.com and READ most all of that site. You are not credible in my eyes and in the eyes of those who have done the research and know the truth.

Your clearly are ignorant of the true facts and you buy strictly into the "american/bk" way of double speak.

Do the research before you post such nonsense again "thinker".; August 08, 2006 4:01 PM
Roccman said...: Hey Foobeca - why is it that you assume a "gradual" decline - Canterell is set to decline 70% in two years - Ghawar - is on the verge of collapse - North Sea/Burgan/North Shore/ all are at 6 to 12 % decline .

Alternatives will only ever replace less than 1/10 of 1% of current liquid fuel.

Hey don't believe me - post up at theoildrum - I'll watch the mayhem from there.

Let's go big boy - log in and post up - I am roccman over there.; August 08, 2006 4:36 PM
blogger said...: I'll remove any post with curse words

clean it up - kids read HP too!; August 08, 2006 4:45 PM
Roccman said...: You're DARN right kids read and POST to HP.; August 08, 2006 4:48 PM
Roccman said...: Foobeca - you need to dig much much deeper and connect some dots before you continue. If you are using IEA/EIA/USGA data you are being misled.

Look - if you are interested yahoo has severla groups dedicated to just this topic that I post regularly on. Energyroundtable/Energyresources/ROE2/theoilddrum/alasbabalon

I do not want to take over this blog -

It is a very simple and very complicated issues all at the same time.

If you are interested - i would join a group or two.; August 08, 2006 5:00 PM
Roccman said...: Canterell article:

Published on 24 Jul 2006 by Los Angeles Times. Archived on 24 Jul 2006.
Will Mexico Soon Be Tapped Out?
by Marla Dickerson; August 08, 2006 5:04 PM
Roccman said...: The US Military and Peask Oil:

http://www.energybulletin.net/18056.html

Published on 13 Jul 2006 by Energy Bulletin. Archived on 13 Jul 2006.

Pentagon and Peak Oil: A Military Literature Review

by Sohbet Karbuz

Until the recent oil price hikes and world wide discussions on the future of oil, Peak Oil was nearly absent in military publications. Now, things have changed. This article attempts at providing a US military literature review on Peak Oil and related issues.

Before Iraq was Invaded; August 08, 2006 5:05 PM
Roccman said...: Clinton and Peak Oil:

http://www.energybulletin.net/newswire.php?id=17470

Published on 22 Jun 2006 by Georgia Straight. Archived on 22 Jun 2006.
Clinton raises alarm about oil depletion
by Charlie Smith; August 08, 2006 5:06 PM
Roccman said...: The Hirsh Report - Developed for the Dept of Energy:

http://www.mnforsustain.org/oil_peaking_of_world_oil_production_study_hirsch.htm; August 08, 2006 5:08 PM
Markus Arelius said...: P-p-p-PAUSE!; August 08, 2006 5:37 PM
Anonymous said...: "Alternatives will only ever replace less than 1/10 of 1% of current liquid fuel."

Unless the market and government get serious about CTL here in the USA.; August 08, 2006 6:08 PM
Roccman said...: ok - lets take 250 years of coal remaining and number 1 turn it to liquid to fuel our H2 (CTL) and number 2 lets plug all our cars in - then 250 years goes to 40 years. BTW on average the Prius consumes apprx 65 barrels of oil to just make - so let's take 700 million (cars in world) times 65 barrels - do the math - wait compund the oil input with the coal producing electricity to make the Prius.

No wait let's plant corn...no...sugar cane...no let's melt rock - yes that's it we will melt 3 trillion barrels in Alberta just so you can drive.

No wait let's take the 40 years left of yellow cake and make the prius - no let's use the yellow cake instead of coal - or better yet lets get uranium from ocean water yeah that's it.

C folks - I'll go back to my signature line - 8 in 10 gotz to go.; August 08, 2006 7:02 PM
Anonymous said...: Matt Simmons, investment banker to the oil companies, says that a 2% shortfall in supply equals a doubling of the gas price.

After all, we (the world) have only seem the elimination of elastisity in supply and look at what that has done to gas prices.

Go the Lifeaftertheoilcrash.org and matt savinar gives a great run down.

I beleive 60% of oil is used for transportation but I'll check that fact.

Oh... and the easy coal has been mined. Now we need huge oil fired heavy machines to tear apart the mountains of WV to get high sulfer coal.

The answers come not so easy now!; August 08, 2006 7:06 PM
Roccman said...: Finally - some air support... way to go Anon!!!

I think transportation fuel from oil is between 75 and 90%

Hey - we can just strapped some solar panels on a 40 ton truck....no let's put mini nukes in the trunks...I got it we will just use bikes...no oil input there mining the metal and making parts -

And don't get me started on how dependent our food supply is on oil...chem based pesticides and fertilizers...diesel water pumps - natural gas to fix nitrogen in our depleted soils....; August 08, 2006 7:16 PM
Anonymous said...: Hey Richard you know your stuff.

There are few of us around who see the interconnectivity of our society, economy and oil.

People want to believe that ethanol or tar sands will save us. The media and those in power want everyone to go merrily down that path. People don't do the math regarding any of these solutions. If they did, they would see the EROEI is less than 1.

Coal gassification is an option but USGS is telling fables about how much coal is left in the U.S. But if we are to continue with this car culture we maybe have 15 years left.

I'm preparing...land, pond, farming, gold, security measures.

Still it is all a crap shoot.; August 08, 2006 7:16 PM
Roccman said...: hey anon - here's my email offline:

Keith has been patient with this discussion - I actually think Keith is looking to short some firms the more he connects the dots...hey Keith ...come up for air and give us the low down on shorts before the oil crash.

roccman2003@yahoo.com; August 08, 2006 7:24 PM
Anonymous said...: Hey Richard

Another interesting story. I belong to a local sustainable society group here in Northern Virginia.

Mostly the group is a bunch of ex-hippy greenie types. I'm an ex-hippy so I don't mind. But the last meeting we had, we had some new people show up. Two were ex CIA and one ex military. Their thoughts on what Peak Oil will bring were not happy thoughts. The breakdown in the social fabric can bring on more problems than most people think. And the breakdown can happen faster than most people think.

It was all very interesting.; August 08, 2006 7:24 PM
blogger said...: ben blinked

amazing; August 08, 2006 7:29 PM
Anonymous said...: Hey I was right. All that whinning, flailing, and crying from the real estate hacks, mortgage brokers, corporate homebuilders and developers has paid off.

Now let's watch. I bet long term rates go up and not down.; August 08, 2006 8:07 PM
Anonymous said...: That chicken is a New Hampshre red.

Pretty soon all of you will know up close and for real what chickens are all about when the bubble bursts.; August 08, 2006 10:40 PM
foxwoodlief said...: Anonymous said, "The orchestrated pipeline problem"....I thought the same when I heard they were shutting down. I thought they inspected those pipelines on a regular basis. How could they suddenly be in such disrepair with the billions of profits to shut it down? No alternative plan like bringing in all the replacement parts and building it parallel to the exisitng line and then shutting it down to connect to the new section instead of just shutting the whole thing down?

I believe the oil companies are doing this on purpose to make more money.; August 08, 2006 10:53 PM
foxwoodlief said...: P.S. We should nationalize the energy industry and use the revenue to pay off the national debt.; August 08, 2006 10:53 PM
Anonymous said...: Anonymous said...

"Matt Simmons, investment banker to the oil companies, says that a 2% shortfall in supply equals a doubling of the gas price.

"After all, we (the world) have only seem the elimination of elastisity in supply and look at what that has done to gas prices.

"Go the Lifeaftertheoilcrash.org and matt savinar gives a great run down...."

I think you mean lifeaftertheoilcrash.net; August 09, 2006 12:55 AM
Anonymous said...: A pause.....no market rally.....
oil on it's way up! What's next incentives on home sales?; August 09, 2006 1:38 AM
Anonymous said...: As posted earlier,
The orchestrated pipeline problem will raise the price of oil domestically and abroad as we seek to purchase more oil from other markets. This will temporarily prop up the dollar as dollar reserves must be maintained to purchase said oil at inflated prices. Less dollars floating around for bad loans equals a more valuable dollar. This allows the fed to pause, all be it, temporarily. We will still pass through the economic digestive system with the usual known result.

I used to be disgusted
Now I’m just amused.

Crashcadia; August 09, 2006 4:03 AM
Anonymous said...: Don't worry I've got faith in the Fed! After all, they got us this far! I'm sure they've got a plan to F--k it up!; August 09, 2006 5:22 AM

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August 08, 2006

HousingPanic Stupid Question of the Day

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