Another of the "housing bubble city of the year" finalists, this view today from Tampa. Anyone hear that big sucking sound coming out of Florida?
Home glut brings price cut
With an average of nine homes for sale for every buyer in the Tampa Bay area, incentives alone are failing to move the market.
Home sellers have wooed buyers by offering free trips to California and $9,000 bonuses. They've advertised cut-rate financing and promised to cover buyers' closing costs.
But coming off an unusually weak summer sales season, many Tampa Bay area home sellers are confronting a market reality they've dreaded: They'll have to cut prices.
The price declines aren't the ear-shattering pops predicted by housing bubble gloom-and-doomers - the Tampa Bay area's low unemployment and popularity with retirees works against that scenario.
But with an average of nine homes on the market for every buyer - the biggest supply and demand imbalance in years - prices are suffering.
"There's no doubt the prices aren't going up, and in most cases they've fallen, slowly or substantially," said Jim Knetsch, owner of RE/MAX Realty Associates Inc. in Carrollwood.
The price cuts are nailing some investors who entered late in the game. They face the prospect of breaking even on their homes - or worse. Many have turned to renting as a desperate expedient.
"We're getting calls, 'We can't sell them. Please lease them,' " said central Pasco Realtor Pam Koenig, who pulled listings for 130 properties chasing renters in Land O'Lakes alone.
"You don't want to create a panic. We've got enough to deal with what's going on with the property insurance market," Mayo said.
Still, Realtors like Knetsch think the market has yet to hit bottom. With the current glut, those who want their home noticed slice the price.
August 09, 2006
Housing meltdown, Tampa-style: "You don't want to create a panic". Too late.
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perfect storm, tampa-style
1) out of control home insurance costs
2) rising long term rates (crushing the interest only crowd)
3) rampant overdevelopment adding unneeded supply to the pool
4) all sellers (9 to 1?) and no buyers
5) a big ol' hurricane
6) throw in a race riot as jobs disappear
7) a cutback in government spending as the bush brothers slither away
8) a collapse of homebuilding sector
9) locusts, plagues and earthquakes
10) ok, last one was just for fun
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE:TOL - news), the largest U.S. luxury home builder, said on Wednesday signed contracts were down 45 percent in the quarter just ended when compared with a year ago, as the U.S. housing market continued to slide.
For the fiscal third quarter ended July 31 signed contracts fell to $1.05 billion, down from $1.92 billion in the same period last year.
Toll said it expects to close on sales of 8,600 to 8,900 homes for the fiscal year ending October 31, down from an earlier reduced forecast of 9,000 to 9,700 homes.
8,600 to 8,900 REALLY stupid people out there last quarter
Please re-lease them
let me go...
For I don't love you
any more
wasn't that a Jim Reeves song?
Who are they going to lease them to? Sure, there are some people who will go there and need to rent, maybe some vacation homes, but with supply like that, there aren't enough renters!
Cascading Cross Defaults
You'll soom be hearing the infobabes on FOX and CNN repeating that phrase.
Got gold?
Tampa prices still seem low by Florida standards considering they do have a diverse economy, still, a home I bought in 1989 for $21,000, in the ghetto but downtown so opportunity to gentrify (and it did) I sold in 1992 for $36,000 (after two years of renovations) and the person I sold it to sold it in 2004 for $156,000 and it just sold for $525,000, and the area still has hookers (maybe a plus for some).
Like a lot of places, if I had to live out in the burbs I'd hate it and there are lots of places in Tampa like that, sterile, dead, burbs. South Tampa is about the only place worth living and those prices are unrealistic. When I was stationed at McDill we had a lot of retired military that lived off Bayshore (the ideal address) that had to sell because they couldn't afford the property taxes on their houses and that was back when they were valued at $65,000 (1976) and now a lot of those homes are a mil! Like all places, better and worse at the same time. Downtown and South Tampa are better but then the traffic and the destruction to the beaches, wetlands, farms is horrible, not to mention these "mass builders" do not build for environment. Concrete slabs in the swamp instead of elevated so air can flow under the house etc. Old Cracker houses were far better. When we rented apartments while in the military we always lived on second floor as often on the first people would pull their furniture away from the walls and have it covered in mold from moisture seeping up through the slabs.
As far as all those condos in Miami and such, a lot are owned by South Americans who may only come to visit a few weeks a year and as a hedge against their leftist governments (like Chavez) and to protect their assets and as a possible haven if they have to flee so that, combined with a few hurricanes should absorb the surplus but prices will have to come down by 1/2 in my opinion (which means nothing in the real world). I always thought we promoted density as a means of reducing costs on infrastructure, cars, roads, land, etc and often these condos cost more than a single family residence. This is the real crime.
Got ammo?
Yesterday I visited my friend Vlad who's living in Long Valley, NJ. Vlad is programmer (as his wife) for one private company in NY.
Long Valley is kind of township where people have 800-1000k houses along with 3-4 acres of land/forest. The real estate tax is about 12k a year and local school is building a new stadium (for only 400 kids) with a dome around it (what a waste of money!).
Together with his wife they can afford ARM payment on his McMansion yet. But, .... What happen if one of them lose job? People driving 40-50 miles to get to jobs and back. That place is remote from any public transportation (that was an idea).
Driving through all these empty roads I was thinking about what will happen to all these houses when SHTF. How will these folks protect themselves?
I can see a future, like a psycho. And I see abandoned houses everywhere far away from public transportations.
There was a computer game called LIFE, where "cells" grow, matured and died. Note, how isolated cells die quickly without neighbor's protection and support (overcrowded die too).
Something wrong with America. Bankers, clerks and lawyers are parasites on economy. Nowadays majority of kids want to be a parasites, nobody want to be an engineer or truck drivers.
I just hope that all these parasites will die together with deadly-thick economy.
I compare the present economy with a drug-dependent dying man, which begging for one more crack dose (cheap credit from FED). Disgusting .....
You hit the nail right - bubbleshanker. When recession starts, no salary increases, people will hold back on spending, especially on big ticket items (i.e. cars & houses) and where in for a housing crash.
I think what we see right now is jut in the very early stage, where stupid "investors" are dumping all their properties. In essence, their testing the waters, therefore, there's no considerable drop in prices yet. Watch when actual homeowners who bought at inflated prices and can longer make the monthly payment.
Anybody else think that a likely scenario is that Cuba opens up its borders once Castro dies here really soon?
And Florida gets flooded with Cubans, and housing goes through the roof again.
I have a friend that owns a trust that sells him 17 Beach Front Lots in Havana when Castro Dies.
I am here because of search results for blogs with a related topic to mine.
Please,accept my congratulations for your excellent work!
I have a california home owner insurance quote site.
Come and check it out if you get time :-)
Best regards!
So one year after the last comment was posted, how is the market down there looking?
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