August 09, 2006

TIME magazine: "Many (sellers) remain defiant to the point of delusion, demanding one more drink at the housing bar". Classic.

TIME is getting closer and closer to putting the epic housing collapse on their cover. Can't you feel it? Here's highlights of this week's edition:

The Boom Is--Is Not!--Over: The Great Real Estate Debate - There's an anxious face-off between sellers and buyers of homes as expectations of big profits fade

When Holly Schiller bought a town house in Fort Lauderdale in the fall of 2004, she figured she would pocket a profit before the place was even finished. Schiller, 51, and her husband had already flipped several properties in Florida's sizzling market, and this one sounded sweet: three bedrooms, private elevator, designer appliances. Villa Medici, promised the builder, would be modeled after a "true Italian Tuscan village," featuring Mediterranean façades and a resort-style pool. "As with any 'limited edition,'" the pitch stressed, "demand always exceeds the supply."

Well, maybe not always. The housing market in parts of South Florida is melting faster than a snow cone on Miami Beach.

Schiller's town house has languished on the market for 18 months. She has slashed the price by $75,000, to $565,000, offered a $2,500 bonus to the selling agent and at one point threw in a $2,500 store credit for home furnishings--all to no avail.

"Buyers are extremely hesitant," says her broker, Rob Rose, adding that hundreds of similar properties are for sale, with similar gimmicks--from free Caribbean cruises to gym memberships (personal trainer included).

Schiller is nervous. She's renting out another property at a loss, while trying to sell that one too, and has a deposit down on a second town house under construction. "They keep telling me 1,000 people a day move to Florida," she says. "I don't know where they're going. They're not buying."

The house party had to end eventually, even if sellers refuse to believe it. Many remain defiant to the point of delusion, demanding one more drink at the housing bar.

In places like Phoenix, Ariz., Las Vegas and Los Angeles, epicenters of the boom, look out below.

Sales of existing homes nationwide are down 8.9% this year, including a 17% free fall in the West, according to the NAR.

If you live in Bubbleopolis, things certainly look scary. In Miami there's a 17-month supply of single-family homes for sale, according to the NAR. Some 75,000 condos are coming on the market in Miami--Dade County, many purchased by speculators with no plans to live in them. "There will be lots of foreclosures, lots of auctions," predicts real estate agent Rose.

Experts in market psychology say stubborn sellers have a classic case of denial. Richard Peterson, a San Francisco psychiatrist who specializes in financial decision-making behavior, points out that "people would rather gamble and hope prices come back. They ignore information suggesting that prices are dropping." It's the same mentality that leads blackjack players to double down in a losing streak.

32 comments:

Roccman said...

Hey Keith - I know yesterday's pause rattled ya - should have stayed in gold my friend, but hitting the bottled never has solved anything ;)

blogger said...

huh? I have plenty of gold. must not keep up with HP

longs:
cop
gld
ewj
ewc
aapl
yhoo
ebay
sbux
dis

shorts via put options:
hd
sold
cc
fd
amzn
cfc
psun

5.05% cash hsbc

Anonymous said...

nice to see time make up for their spring 2005 cheerleading

this article is devastating for anyone thinking of buying a house. they'll read this and say 'no way jose'

Anonymous said...

Tol reported orders down 45% today!

Meltdown!!!!

Anonymous said...

nice pick - countrywide crashing

Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC : Countrywide Financial Corp.
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4:15am 08/09/2006

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CFC37.34, +0.43, +1.2%) said Wednesday its mortgage fundings in July fell 19% from year-ago levels, to $36 billion. Monthly purchase volume in July was $17 billion, compared to $21 billion in July 2005. Year-to-date purchase activity fell 3%, to $119 billion. Adjustable-rate loan fundings for the month of July were $17 billion, a 27% drop from July 2005. Home equity loan fundings for July rose 4% in July from a year ago, the company said.

Anonymous said...

cfc down 5% premarket

Anonymous said...

You are LONG SBUX??

Roccman said...

The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been two hundred years.
These nations have progressed through this sequence:
From bondage to spiritual faith;
from spiritual faith to great courage;
from courage to liberty;
from liberty to abundance;
from abundance to selfishness;
from selfishness to complacency;
from complaceny to apathy;
from apathy to dependence;
from dependency back again into bondage.
Sir Alex Fraser Tyler: (1742-1813) Scottish jurist and historian

Anonymous said...

Holly Schiller..LOL. You are an IDIOT and deserve the losses you will receive due to greed.

You also are a LOSER, just in case you stumble across this blog while crying about your losses.

MWAHAHAHHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Anybody see WCI Communities earnings announcement today? It's worth a look to see how bad things can get. Their main market is luxury condos in south Florida. Here's a snip:

"Tower Homebuilding orders for the second quarter 2006 decreased 82.6% in value to $57.0 million and 88.8% in units to 36"

That's right...A NINETY PERCENT DROP IN SALES! F&*K!

Anonymous said...

Long AAPL? There are guys who trade professionally that chat all day on a pretty good financial message board. I won't disclose where because so far it isn't too trolled up.

They have been talking about their profitable AAPL shorts.

Anonymous said...

man, is jim cramer the ultimate contrarian - as in do exactly the opposite of what he says?

he's been saying there is no housing bubble, it's all overblown, meanwhile we're entering panic mode around the country

he also has been pumping countrywide - cfc - and it's getting slaughtered today

what a fool

blogger said...

for the trolls, I'm up 26% on sbux and 59% on aapl. these are 2 of my long term holds, had 'em for well over a year, and will hold 'em until I retire

my play money is in those january put options against the retailers and cfc

I'll leave day trading to the same idiots who flip houses. it'll get you nowhere fast.

blogger said...

I sure wish I was in the US to watch cramer tonight pumping countrywide!

oh, man, that guy is an idiot

Anonymous said...

All unfolding just as Keith and HP said it would. . .

Gold up today, Countrywide down, 10 year rate up, 30 year bond up, and dollar down. . .Dow turned around as of this writing and is down. . .Newsweek calls the housing bubble, Time gets into the act, and Labor Day is almost upon us . . .if people haven't sold their house this summer - it won't sell. . .

Anonymous said...

I hope the flippers starve to death. Let them sell the kids into PORN.

Greed should destroy them.

Anonymous said...

Everyone knows that when a trend appears on the cover of TIME magazine, you know that trend is almost over. (See how they covered the housing boom in 2005.)

I expect the busting of the housing bubble will appear on their cover in 2012.

blogger said...

I've gotta admit I feel a bit psychic today

Lucky guesses?

Next up: Iran. Something big.

Anonymous said...

Any word on the UK street 'bout that one, Keith?

Anonymous said...

" The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been two hundred years.
These nations have progressed through this sequence:
From bondage to spiritual faith;
from spiritual faith to great courage;
from courage to liberty;
from liberty to abundance;
from abundance to selfishness;
from selfishness to complacency;
from complaceny to apathy;
from apathy to dependence;
from dependency back again into bondage.
Sir Alex Fraser Tyler: (1742-1813) Scottish jurist and historian"

Well we're definitely into selfishness and complacency now ... I wouldn't say apathy though.

Bill said...

this is a must watch , the vis is a little messed up but the audio is right on

http://tinyurl.com/ps4pb

Anonymous said...

No problem, just keep your girls safe and out of downtown and most all of those areas at night.

Anonymous said...

LEND melted down today (Aug 9).

I was unable to get off a short; it was previously very heavy shorted and there were no shares for retail.

Anonymous said...

Let'em remain defiant! Til they figure it out the Hard way! Take a little (or more) off Now, or A Lot off later. Live within your means before your means dictate how you live!

Anonymous said...

I had a condo for sale in San Diego. Asked agent for comps in the same area. Twelve similar units for sale, out of 276 total units in complex. Got the high and the low, (the highest had been on the market for 1 yr.) Priced mine well below the highest, about in the middle......Sold in 28 days! Needed nothing but a new owner. BTW,the highest one needed paint n carpet!

Anonymous said...

" The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been two hundred years.

Sir Alex Fraser Tyler: (1742-1813) Scottish jurist and historian"

This is a case of "it sounds impressive" but isn't actually true.

Where did he get 200 years?

Rome=1200 yrs
China=3000 years
Egypt=2500 years.

Modern day Europe has been civilized for how long? 700 years?

Question assertions, even if they sound sort of cool. Don't accept them as fact just because you read them in a book or on the internet. Use your brain, it was put there for a reason.

Anonymous said...

Long BRK-A

Nuff said.

Haggis

Anonymous said...

t's not just the sellers that are in denial, but their agents, as well. Neither group has yet come to grips with the fact that prices are falling, after so many years of rising prices. They are still scratching their heads as to why so many properties come onto the market and nothing seems to be selling any more. But it hasn't occurred to them that their properties are overpriced to attract any attention from potential buyers. They've never seen anything like this before, and don't know what to do.

ocrenter said...

read more about Schiller's condo complex in Fort Lauderdale here.

Anonymous said...

I have no sympathy for this women...she deserves what she gets. Just like everyone else in the RE world. I hope they all go bankrupt because of their greed.

Anonymous said...

"Where did he get 200 years?

Rome=1200 yrs
China=3000 years
Egypt=2500 years. "

I think he means in terms of a form of govt.

The Roman republic was roughly from the Punic Wars, 250BC, to 27BC.

The 1st Roman Empire was from 27 BC to 250 AD, where there was dissolution of society into a military anarchy.

Then, the Diocletian Roman Empire started with a Stalinist ruler, Diocletian, who split the empire into western and eastern regions.
Then, the western empire fell in 476 AD.

The east continued as the Byzantine Empire but that was a Greek, not Latin, based society.

Anonymous said...

Everyone knows that when a trend appears on the cover of TIME magazine, you know that trend is almost over. (See how they covered the housing boom in 2005.)

I expect the busting of the housing bubble will appear on their cover in 2012.


This seems to be a popular opinion - the trend being almost over. And that cover just showed up! Coupled with some builders' earnings calls and quarterly reports (thank God none of them feel like/or probably even are capable of building specs), it may really be a sign of hitting the bottom, at least in the less crazy markets.