May 22, 2006

The sudden and devastating swiftness of the housing bubble crash


Folks, I'm not sure if you're sensing it, but it is all falling apart so quickly, so suddenly now.

Even I, having been studying and analyzing the bubble for years, and been blogging on this subject for over eight months now, am amazed and surprised by how fast the bubble is blowing and the speed of the destruction nationwide. Mass euphoria quickly turned into mass panic.

So I hearken back to this article about Cisco from 2001, when a similar sudden and chilling market reversal caused Cisco to take a $2 Billion write-down and started the long march to near worthlessness for their shareholders:

To keep up with the frenetic pace of network-equipment orders during the Internet's heyday in the mid- and late-1990s, Cisco placed big orders for communications chips, optical lasers and subassembly boards from its suppliers.

But the wicked combination of the dot-com implosion and the deteriorating economic conditions in the United States and abroad finally caught up with the world's largest data networking equipment maker, causing sales to decline at an astonishing rate and leaving Cisco with billions of dollars in equipment and materials that it couldn't sell and likely won't be able to sell in the next 12 months.

Skip ahead a few years, to this sudden and chilling housing market collapse, and you get this:

Home flippers' investments flop

Joe Passarelli wakes up anxious and sweaty some nights, wondering how much longer it will take to sell his never-lived-in townhouse south of Stuart.

Despite slashing his asking price by $55,000 to $285,000 and keeping vigil at sparsely attended open houses for six months, he still has no takers.

Passarelli made out well last year, grossing about $100,000 on a home he flipped in St. Lucie West and an additional $50,000 from his mortgage and real estate business. But this year is emerging quite differently.

"The end result is it may have to all be given back," he said.

Fearing they'll lose more if they hang on to homes in the community, some investors are walking away from deposits of $30,000 to $50,000, said Stuart-based real estate broker Mike Morgan, who sold several homes in Martin's Crossing.

"What happened there is no different than what happened in the condo market and everywhere else: greed, greed, greed," Morgan said.

As with the Internet boom of the late 1990s, those who stand to lose most in this shifting market are novice investors and those who bought too much too late.

23 comments:

Anonymous said...

Cisco was the largest company in the world during the .com nonsense, can you imagine that? A company that makes routers for the internet was the largest company in the world.

Now it's the homebuilders turn, they are getting smashed at this point, because no one is buying homes, it has just stopped.

The market is building tons of intentory so that it can be liquidated in the 4th quarter at 30% off sales, the sales will continue for the next 10-15 years, final price being the exact same as it was in 2001.

Anonymous said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?s=^HGX,FRE,FNM,HOV,TOL,NVR,MDC,BHS,CTX,DHI,KBH,LEN,PHM,WLS,MTH,DHOM,BZH,JOE,MTH,RYL,LOW,HD&d=v1

Why is Freddie and Fanny going up? Prospects of a bailout? Gawd, I hope not.

Anonymous said...

Bernacke is saying it is different this time!... because inflation is low! What a crock. Inflation is huge and getting so bad they have to cook the numbers.

Found this Bloomberg.com link at PrudentBear.com:

"Bernanke, 52, argues the economy now is different because inflation expectations remain contained."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aVcdWJSac2Nk&refer=us

Bill said...

It all comes down to greed, if they kept inventory under control as well as prices we wouldn't be in this mess.

Sure I know alen Greenspan, but like many have said in the past on this blog no one said to buy buy buy wwe created this bubble ..so we reap what we sew and the end result is falling on ones face!

I feel for the couples with a new family just starting out, as well as the family's who are levraged beyond their take home pay.

I for one have 2 family members already in this situation, and tried to warn them to no avail.

So now i here my sister call and complain all the time ..

family comes first and when she and her husband loose their house (o7 ARM IO AJUST MO $332,000 workmans special Nucking Futs) I see my finished basement becoming her home. And this is the truth folks.

Oh and if your wondering her husband is in construction and they were living like they were Mr. and Mrs Gates. Always telling me sell sell, buy this you need that.

I did my thing all cash, and owe no one nothing.

Anonymous said...

Here in Pasadena CA there is a waiting list for provisional traffic permits on new construction projects. The inventory is still expanding while THOUSANDS of newly built units are just coming on line. This looks real bad to me as an increase in supply met by a drop in demand could cause a compound reaction. As I post they are in the permit stage for 800 new units at West Gate Pasadena which will also have TENS OF THOUSANDS of square feet of retail SPACE. Who the heck is going to live in these places, they aren’t going to be cheap. It is well within my memory that Old Pasadena was full of hookers, drug addicts, and con men. One slip of the economy and it could go back.

InfidelSix said...

I was looking at houses around the Rose Bowl a couple months ago. Nice area! I like Pasadena. I'm in Glendale (2&210). Where in Pas is all this development going on? I'm planning on buying there ... for 40% off!!!

Anonymous said...

CSCO = GREAT ANALOGY!

The land inventory writedowns by the HB's will be equally stupendous.

So glad to be short the HB's :)

Anonymous said...

Same story here in CO. RE agents making excuses why houses over $350K aren't selling (a "breather" in those listings) while builders have dozens more spec homes in that price range coming on the market every week. Reduced tags are showing up on many listings over $500K.

Several dumb ass flippers have FSBO shacks on the market for months now with no takers. These are places that should have been torn down, but these yokels think laminate floors and new vinyl windows justify $250/SF when the same house can be bought raw for $100/SF. Guess they watched too much HGTV.

Anonymous said...

I wonder how much of that land owned by builders is pledged as collateral? Banks tend to get real antsy when their collateral loses value, and they might just start calling in those loans. It happened to a buddy of mine in '91. The bank called him and said they wanted their commercial loan paid off in 90 days - it put him out of business, and he ended up losing his own house in the legal wrangling that followed.

Anonymous said...

Well, speaking as one of the people carpetbagging assholes like Joe have priced out of the market (i.e., anyone in Florida who actually works for a living), I hope he loses everything he's got and has to go back to New York.

Anonymous said...

The people who buy houses without planning to occupy them are not investors. They are speculators, and many should be called gamblers. Investing takes time, knowledge, and wherewithal, not access to easy lines of credit.

Let's stop calling them the slightly honorable speculators and just call these people gamblers. After all, betting on housing going up forever was merely a gamble, and a stupid one at that.

Anonymous said...

Well, speaking as one of the people carpetbagging assholes like Joe have priced out of the market (i.e., anyone in Florida who actually works for a living), I hope he loses everything he's got and has to go back to New York.

It will be a great day when Florida is cleansed of the New Yorkers/New Jerseyans who come here, drive up prices on everything, bitch about heat/alligators/mosquitoes, and talk about how great it is up north.

Anonymous said...

taxpayers will bail him out

Anonymous said...

You can deduct gambling losses against gambling gains. I do not remember the part in the tax code about deducting house losses.

blogger said...

don't the homebuilders have to write down inventory (overvalued on their books) per sarbanes oxley or risk jail time?

Anonymous said...

Just another anonymous poster kicking Joe while he is down. I too hope he loses everything. Dyan Harmell still gets my vote for the housing bubble poster child though. I wonder how she's doing.

Anonymous said...

moman, it might happen. I'm hearing from lots of them that the storms are scaring them badly, and St. Joe, which caters heavily to the elderly carpetbagger millionaire set, just hit some new 52 week lows today.

Couldn't happen to a more deserving company.

What amazes me most about the snowbirds, though, is not their nasty dispositions or limitless sense of entitlement so much as their total obliviousness to how much people here loathe them. If they had any idea, they would stay home.

Anonymous said...

Florida isn't carpetbagger Hell. Arizona is!

They always go on and on about how nice the weather is here. From what kind of hellhole did these idiots come to think that 120 degrees 5 months out of the year is pleasant?

Perhaps someone should develop a spray poison to kill these insects.

Anonymous said...

Come to pasadena and see TRIO, a 3 block long condo project on Colorado around El Molino. Or the GIANT complex at Del Mar and Arroyo. Or West Gate Pasadena, going in between Green- Del Mar- and Pasadena ave! These are the big ones in my face, be sure to drive around to see the HUNDRED or so other MULTI UNIT buildings that have gone in! HOLY KRAP.

degoboy said...

Regarding the comment about all the condos going up in pasadena. Have seen condo/aptment projects going up all over LA/OC. Dwtn Long Beach is putting up masses of condo high-rises. Marina DeL rey has some projects going up. Several hugh complexes near USC. A hugh mixed SFH/condo community going up in hills south of 405 in Irvine. Anaheim putting up 1 dozen or so planned condo/apt projects in the platinum triangle aroung anahein stadium.The new game in town is affordable multi-housing units and they will add to the supply of housing throughout the LA/OC region.

degoboy said...

Update on Long Beach Condo?apt/loft craze. Doma RE(domaproperties.com)listing 20+lofts $sale inside the converted landmark Walker bldg -115 w. 4th st LB. Ditto Temple lofts-415 pine LB. Archstone apts?condos occupy entire block along pine between 4th and 5th. Look up Olson company for details. Old landmark kress bldg 433 pine will convert old retail site into 18 lofts/groung-level shops.
Construction being expedited on 20 high-end lofts at 133 promenade. Another Olsen project teamed with Lennar homes and malcolm architects.
Camden Harbor at 250-300 w.ocean blvd features over 500 leasable luxury apts and you can walk down 50 steps to new Rainbpw pier/Harborwalk retail village.
Two more luxury high-rise condo/apt towers going up along Ocean blvd. Long beach Dwtn developers taking the "Damn the torpedos full speed ahead" approach to the Softening RE market.

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