May 22, 2006
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A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
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26 comments:
fear
another couple of thousand homes in phoenix piled up the past few days - from bubbletracking
1/2: 26,715
1/10: 28,790
1/20: 31,457
1/30: 32,512___1/06 sold: 5,260___1/05 sold: 9,360
2/10: 34,608
2/20: 35,455
2/28: 36,176___2/06 sold: 5,455___2/05 sold: 7,935
3/10: 37,680
3/20: 38,968
3/31: 39,852___3/06 sold: 7,265___3/05 sold: 10,035
4/10: 41,403
4/20: 43,054
4/30: 44,290___4/06 sold: 5,980___4/05 sold: 8,735
5/10: 44,894
5/20: 46,596
Between denial and fear - depending on area.
Bay Area, CA is definitly in denial, while Phoenix is in fear.
fear
Fear is here IMO. Something is rotten in Denmark and people are catching on.
fear mixed with outrage. I think HP needs security detail at this point
I'm a little more conservative...it depends on your area of the nation but I think we're still hovering over denial, with some areas heading towards fear (CA, AZ). Here in the Northeast it's still full denial mode.
The RE types are in "excitment".
Around here they are still salivating about all the people that will be coming in due to BRAC, from NoVA amongst other places.
The BRAC move has not yet been funded.
A pair of houses across the street are for sale but at prices I believe to be too high. The sellers inhereted the houses and have no "skin" in them. We are talking $160s. Have been for sale 6 months or so. I have seen no people stopping to look, no showings. Maybe the high end of the market is still OK but mid priced houses are slow.
In between Euphoria and Denial - the majority of people are simply not aware yet. They still see their big gains.
This graph will take years to play out.
The stage is only now being set.
anxiety and denial
in massachusetts, i have 3 houses for sale all around me, and yesterday was open house not one person showed up.
I was doing some painting outdoors so i was observing not one person.
Here in Baltimore we're still in euphoria, if you look at some recent list prices and compare to comps. The "we're different here" mentality is gonna take a long time to go away...as I posted on my blog that inventory increased 3.8% in 5 days, yet people are still isting for 20% above 2005 peak prices. Of course, they sit for months, but they're entitled to their prices, who the hell are buyers to say otherwise?
I think here in the NYC metro area, we are still at ANXIETY
Between denial and desperation with fear spikes growing in intensity and frequency.
A few folks w IO/ARMs are moving into the desperation category. But it will get a lot worse before the foreclosure wave sends prices into a free fall.
Don't think of buying until those realtors have a look of panic on their faces. It's coming.
Nationally denial. Getting close to fear.
David
Bubble Meter Blog
I think that the majority of people in this country are in denial. Panic will set in very fast when the common man realizes they have been duped by the government. Many millions will be screwed!!
It always depends on where you live! Here there is not even a place on the chart for the buyers and sellers because there is no bubble.
Permits are up,prices are up,construction is booming,FOR SALE and SOLD signs are everywhere. Its the spring thing!
Almost no one that I talk to has any concept of a housing bubble.
Ca,Mass,Fla :they are too far away
to worry about. It should prove interesting as to whether a housing callopse will affect the non-bubble areas that much.
In Harry Dent's book (where that chart came from), in the latest edition he changed "Temporary set back - I'm a long term investor" to "It's a soft landing" ... a mock shout out to Lereah?? LOL
McCafferty, a professor at UNLV, paid $260,000 for a 1,248-square-foot home - including a premium lot, kitchen appliances, and a washer and dryer.
1248 sq. ft.? Shiat, my storage area is that big.
LMAO. I got 4800 Sq. Ft. for ~$200k 35 miles outside Tampa. What a tool this tard is. My PREMIUM lot is a 2.5 acre gated estate.
Looks like "stuck in so pa." is about to find out how quickly Excitement, thrill, and euphoria can turn into anxiety, denial and fear.
When the reality of overpaying, just to have a 2 hour commute, sets in; the cycle will play out very quickly. You can almost taste the fear.
I live in Phoenix. The people who can't make their mortgage payments may be in fear, but the market as a whole is barely into anxiety. Keep in mind the shape of the graph, which is supposed to indicate the price action associated with each stage. Prices in Phoenix are just starting to come down.
The denial period should be very short and steep (again, just like the graph).
Between Denial and Fear.
"DC popper said...
Looks like "stuck in so pa." is about to find out how quickly Excitement, thrill, and euphoria can turn into anxiety, denial and fear.
When the reality of overpaying, just to have a 2 hour commute, sets in; the cycle will play out very quickly. You can almost taste the fear."
"Excitement, thrill, and euphoria", Pul-leeeez, more like dull, boring, and comatose. Not exactly a happening spot here.
The bubble idiots up from Baltimore/DC have got to be taking a beating though. The parade of transplanted yuppies heading south every morning in their suburban assualt vehicles is pretty pathetic.
Locals don't overpay for homes here, just outsiders from bubble areas with more money than brains. Good modest older homes with land for a reasonable price are availiable,
or you can pay way too much for a custom-built sh*tbox on a flyspeck of dirt. If you don't use the brain God gave you, shame on you. If you can't afford it, THEN DON'T BUY IT!!!
You are correct in that the "anxiety, denial and fear" will come for some, but not for all.
Me and the wife have lived here since 1974,work local,own outright, no debt,owe nobody, have shotguns and canned goods.
It just really ticks me off when I realize that peoples recklessness in their financial real estate dealings in areas far away will affect us all. Taste the fear?not yet,but its coming!
Tailing euphoria to light anxiety for established neighborhoods. They sense a change, but nothing alarming and are still giddy.
Now, there are those who got way over extended. Some are in panic mode, but it's not the norm.
Interesting anecdote: In 2004 I asked a landlord if she'd sell her house since it had been unrented for 8 months. She refused saying she was making more on the appreciation and could care less about the rent.
Yesterday, I call the same lady about renting the same house. Turns out she has 4 houses now. All empty. She said something about the size of the mortgages and she needs them rented NOW. "I'm asking $1200, but could go lower. Low deposit. First/Last is negotiable." These negotiations were freely given, I hardly said a thing.
Fear
Amazing, we nose dived straight from anxiety straight to fear, people I talk to are scared to death, one of my friends just had 4 people laid off in his office, out of 16! All 4 had huge mortgages! Other people I talk to say the market is just fricken dead, no one is interested in buying a house right now, at any price other than a quarter of what people are asking.
It's getting ugly hard and fast, just the way I like it, I wont be buying until the blood is flowing on the streets, and prices are where they should be, not a penny over 2001 prices, everywhere in the country, not this localized bubble bs everyone talks about.
another northeast denial here. Although fear may be creeping in. I've seen a LOT mor ehouses for sale this past month, and NONE are selling. (snicker)
In San Diego, which I believe is the bellweather for the nation the market is in anxiety by the end of the summer it will be in denial and 3-4 months into winter it will be into fear. People here are in all different stages. There are those like me that have distanced themselves from real estate holdings and are hopeful for the eventual bottom and rise in the future and then there are those that are so blind they are still suffering from euphoria. The majority of people are in the anxiety stage awaiting what they hope will be a good summer. As for me I'll be busy this summer digging my bomb shelter ;)
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