March 19, 2006

The National Association of Realtors: American's least trusted source for real estate news


The NAR is really looking like Fox News these days. They need a catchy brainwash slogan too - "Fair, Balanced and Unafraid" is so classic, and taken. Perhaps "Desperate, Laughable and Anyone Hiring?". From Piggington:

This week's Voice of San Diego article concerns wildly incorrect data in the NAR's so-called Anti-Bubble Report for San Diego (which you can read here).

Buried in the middle of the report is this gem:

...only 3 percent of the [2004] loans have loan-to-value ratios above 90 percent, so the foreclosure risk is rather minimal. (That is, prices would have to decline by more than 10 percent to have a measurable impact on foreclosure rates.)

At first glance, this statement appears to maintain that only 3% of 2004 San Diego homebuyers made down payments of less than 10%. Regular readers of this site know that this is categorically untrue. The correct number (per DataQuick) is that 38% of 2004 homebuyers made down payments of 10% or less. A full 27% of buyers made no down payment at all!

The other way to read this sentence is that only 3% of individual loans had LTVs over 90%. But this is irrelevant—a buyer with an 80% first mortgage and a 20% second mortgage has no loans with higher than 80% LTV... but the buyer is in the hole for 100% of the property value. The latter is, of course, the meaningful statistic when it comes to predicting foreclosures. But NAR goes on to cite this data as evidence that foreclosure risk is minimal unless home prices decline by more than 10%.

50 comments:

pesche22 said...

its called denial

Anonymous said...

I live here. I love San Diego, but it is going to go down hard. The denial here is shocking.

Opened Eyes said...

CNN and the 3 networks all lie and propagandize for the government as much as Fox News, just with a slightly more PC/leftist flavor.

Anonymous said...

A friend in slc say i better buy there (draper ut) because he say prices will be up 15-20% by next year. What do you think. any info on reno, nv.

cabinbound said...

Good post Keith. As the original post notes, we here have seen this trickery before. It needs to repeated far more often than necessary before it bubbles up (*cough*) to the consciousness of the average news outlet.

foobeca said...

SLC may very well be 15-20% higher a year from now. The fools from CA and the east coast are chasing returns by investing in Boise, Austin, Dallas, and SLC.

Prices in SLC are getting pretty frothy but not quite a bubble yet. One thing that is interesting is that SLC has a higher median household income than LA does, yet LA houses cost 3x as much.

http://www.census.gov/acs/www/Products/Ranking/2003/R07T050.htm

Anonymous said...

Good info, but the partisan hack crap hurts your credibility. Let us know if you see Barbara Streisand and Alec Baldwin living overseas with you. Not there? I thought they were leaving in 2000?

Grinch34 said...

I agree with you Keith. It has gone from misinformation, reporting only selected information, trickery, to out and out blatant lying.

Anonymous said...

It's National "DON'T BUY a HOUSE Month" for the Next 2 Years AT Least!

john in va said...

Good info, but the partisan hack crap hurts your credibility.

I agree. It's a distraction. Not quite sure what Fox News has to do with the housing bubble.

Out at the peak said...

I got slammed on my blog for referencing FoxNews myself. I guess it is a touchy subject for some. However, I think people should be more lighthearted and go with the joke that it is the most right wing biased news network out there. Too bad some take it as a direct insult ... as if insulting their religion.

keith said...

it's funny that far right wing nutjobs think if you attack fox news it's like you're attacking their mother

folks, fox news is a biased right wing propaganda tool of the administration. owned by one rupert murdoch, mr. republican fund raiser himself. cheney shoots a guy, where does he go? fox news. bush "wins" florida - who reports it? bush's cousin who is running the fox news election desk. etc etc etc.

and that's ok. the new york times and cbs news are left wing rags. you just have to know what you're getting when you use their product.

now if everyone would just take off their partisian rep and dem hat and see what's happening to their country, no matter how much they hate them fags and a-rabs or how much they think bush is the antichrist, we'd be fine

until then, we're F'd. just keep it up.

john in va said...

I got slammed on my blog for referencing FoxNews myself. I guess it is a touchy subject for some. However, I think people should be more lighthearted and go with the joke that it is the most right wing biased news network out there. Too bad some take it as a direct insult ... as if insulting their religion.

Come on... The point isn't about Fox, it's about the partisan slant. For example, this from a few posts back:

"And just look to Bush's historically low 36% approval rating today, with 70% of Americans saying we're on the wrong track. The emperor is not wearing clothes, the country needs a change, and here it comes."

and this:

"Also, doesn't it seem all tied together in some way? Housing Bubble. Oil. Geo-politics. Trade deficit. Wal-Mart. China. Iran. Bush."

Now, he can say whatever he wants -- it's his blog. I'm just saying it detracts from the main message. If keith wants it to be a "housing bubble blog for Democrats" that's his perogative.

Anonymous said...

I like Fox News, I do think it is fair and balanced. CNN, MSNBC, not so much...And the network news that the left has been pushing on us until Fox came out in 96' is totally slanted...just not YOUR way Keith. Bummer is for you, Fox News is kicking butt, and America has a choice on cable, so they get the real story. Right wins, right is right.

keith said...

this is a blog for folks who understand that a cabal of incompetence and corruption, combined with basic human nature and greed, created the mother of all bubbles

bush, greenspan, realtors, NAR, developers, flippers, appraisers, mortgage bankers, china, capitalism, fox news, walmart, the congress, bob toll, the media, consumerism and capitalism - put it all together, and you get what we got

we've been here before (on a smaller scale). bubbles are a part of human nature. they inflate, then they deflate. it all comes out in the wash.

and as much as I slam bush for being an incompetent boob, I'll slam the democrats for being spineless, directionless and leaderless.

partisianship is for partisians. saying bush is incompetent doesn't make you a democrat or member of al quaida. no matter what fox news tells you.

saying we have a mess on our hands, warning anyone who'll listen and documenting this bubble with pointed commentary is my task.

god bless the freedom of blogging. fu*k fox news, fu*k bush and fu*k the democrats. now if other americans would rise up and fight back vs. being spoon-fed their news and opinions, we'd get somewhere.

Anonymous said...

Fox has the hottest chciks too.

Anonymous said...

I would F the Fox News chicks...any joiners?

Anonymous said...

Not sure how you get that Fox is a right wing outfit. As a for instance, Fox has recently become more and more against the Iraq war. That's a left wing issue if there ever was one. Fox's take is that its been 3 years, we've lost all these lives, and its still pretty chaotic. Viet Nam redux?
They're certainly not very pro Bush on that lately.

I've frequently seen various commentators take what are traditional left wing points of view. Fox tends to be pragmatic more than anything, IMO.

Anonymous said...

Fox, and some of the other Right Wing outlets like the WSJ ed page, are not just slanted, they are slanted with a partisan agenda. The mainstream media, like the network news channels and the Times, have indeed had a left of center (though not far left of center) POV for a long time. But they also have a strong sense of the profession of journalism, and what that requires of them in terms of objectivity.

The greatest proof of this is the way the "mainstream" media went after Clinton on so many issues, like Whitewater. The NYT led the charge on Whitewater -- they pursued it relentlessly for years.

You simply could not imagine Fox doing that with a Republican president. They are conservatives first, journalists second. This is a major difference.

uknowwhoiyam said...

Old news.

This information was posted on http://HouseBubble.com 3 days ago.

moman said...

Keith:

You need to do a post on cause and effect.

bush, greenspan, realtors, NAR, developers, flippers, appraisers, mortgage bankers, china, capitalism, fox news, walmart, the congress, bob toll, the media, consumerism and capitalism - put it all together, and you get what we got

Causation: consumerism, Greenspan, developers, capitalism

Effect: flippers, Wal-Mart, consumerism, NAR

For instance Wal-Mart was merely an effect of consumerism - it did not cause it. The Media and people's increasing concern and insecurity that someone else may have it better is the real culprit.

I ban People, US Weekly, and other celebrity magazines from my home along with MTV. Why? As I explaied to the gf, those magazines push a lifestyle that is not attainable by us and is not attractive to us. I don't want to live like Brad Pitt. I could care less if the neighbors have a new Suburban.

The real problem in this country is that people are afraid to have their own identify and are too worried about what everyone else is doing.

Anonymous said...

>>>the network news that the left has been pushing on us

Yes, gigantic multinational corporations like General Electric and Microsoft are well known for their leftist extremism. {rolling eyes}

There is a liberal media in this country, but it's not to be found in the corporate outlets. They are the voice of their owners, who most assuredly are not leftists.

Anonymous said...

Bummer is for you, Fox News is kicking butt...

Their ratings have been dropping steadily for the past year, particularly among the 25-54 demographic. As Bush becomes less popular, so does FauxNews. Hmmm....

As a for instance, Fox has recently become more and more against the Iraq war. That's a left wing issue if there ever was one.

Then a majority of America is officially leftist now, according to the latest polling by that notoriously leftist newspaper, the Wall Street Journal.

Anonymous said...

The reason why the news media is focusing all their attention and ours on the war in Iraq is because, Americans must not be allowed to think about the problems that directly affect them.
To do this is not good for business. After all, the wealthy elite own the media, and they can dictate what we should be thinking about. Not about loosing all our net worth in a housing bubble crash, not about making lower wages because of illegal immigration, not about all the forclousers, and certinly not about being able to feed and shelter our families. But rather, happy things like, human interest stories and the war in Iraq. They know we're only capable of thinking about one thing at a time. So, distraction is the method to further their agenda. Yeah, distraction, thats the ticket.

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