Wish I was there to drive around the neighborhoods and talk to buyers (are there any?) and sellers.
What's the mood? What's the chatter?
March 19, 2006
HP'ers from Phoenix - what's it like today on the ground, with almost 40,000 homes listed?
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9 comments:
There are OPEN HOUSE signs on most corners. Sometimes two or three. Last summer there were none. I stopped in on one last week for kicks, and felt bad for the realtor. She had a look of desparation. Not something I'm used to seeing.
Yes, there are open houses everywhere - even though the agents I've met tell me it is a waste of time. It is mainly a way to generate leads between agents, or something. That's why I didn't bother with an open house when I bailed outta Phx.
BTW, where does one go to find the number of listings?
Get ready to have 30+% sucked out of your house over the next6 months as the builders drop prices to dump inventory.
All I can say about this town is that you cant loose by buying real estate. Yea right!!!! Kiss your A$$ and your financial freedom goodbye!!!
It really is amusing to see the same "Open House" signs week after week for the same houses. Really, to any sellers out there, if anyone ever buys because of an open house it is merely by coincidence. It is pretty much just a tool for marketing the agent who is sitting the open house, and/or making the seller think that the listing agent/brokerage is working. Sorry to repeat the point, but it really is not understood by many folks.
I know that some of the sellers are starting to catch on to the trends, and are starting to price accordingly. Are there many idiots asking 10% above the 2005 peak while the same model in the same subdivision sits unsold for 10% below that same peak? Yes. But some are getting the message, and consequently selling their houses.
But as soon as Spring Training baseball is over at the end of March, the housing market will really heat up. :)
>>>BTW, where does one go to find the number of listings?
http://tinyurl.com/g94ut
I want to share one more thing. I found this house listing really amusing; I am not sure if others would find it quite as funny. It is in a Phoenix suburb, 4 years old, 4 bedrooms, just over 2000 square feet.
PRICED TO SELL AS-IS. HOME NEEDS MINOR COSMETIC WORK, CARPET, PAINT AND A FEW INTERIOR DOORS. AS THE REPAIRS ARE MADE THE PRICE WILL INCREASE. SELLER IS OUT OF COUNTRY AND WOULD RATHER SELL AS-IS IF POSSIBLE.
This place has been sitting on the market for a couple of months, and so they dropped the asking price by $25K. So far, so good. Wise strategy. But I just can not get over the fact that there is an implied threat that as soon as they get around to making these "minor cosmetic" repairs -missing interior doors :0 ,carpet, and paint - then UP goes the price. Yes, sir, that is quite a scary threat, considering that there are dozens of similarly-sized houses within a half-mile that also remain unsold. I better hurry up and buy your crappy place. At least some of the other nutty flippers have houses that are somewhat clean, or at least have the correct number of doors.
And the owner is not even in the country. Japan, I believe.
Want to really freak out sellers? Get a broker who's willing to submit outrageous offers at 25% of asking price and cite as your source, a dozen or so blogs/sites that support the coming real estate armegeddon
Phoenix Housing Market Seen Slowing
By Nicholas Yulico
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
3/20/2006 1:21 PM EST
The hot Phoenix area housing market is seeing slowing sales and a dramatic spike in housing inventories, according to a research report from Raymond James.
Sales of existing single-family homes and condos fell 24% year over year in February, and listings increased 939% in the same period, Raymond James analyst Rick Murray wrote in a note to clients Monday.
"As prices have stagnated since August, inventory levels have continued to grow, as we suspect an increasing number of speculators are placing their homes on the market," Murray wrote.
From August to February, inventory increased by 122%, he noted. From a months-supply perspective, that means six months of inventory were on the market at the end of February, compared with 1.6 months in August.
Median home prices remain 33% above the period a year ago, though they dropped 1% from August, to $253,000 from $255,000.
TheStreet.com noted the dangers that lay ahead for Phoenix back in October.
"It is clear speculators have headed for the exists in Phoenix. Given the increase in mortgage rates recently, it would seem as if this market will continue to face increasingly more challenging conditions, especially in light of the enormous surge in inventory," Murray says.
D.R. Horton (DHI:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take), Pulte Homes (PHM:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) and M.D.C. Holdings (MDC:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) hold the highest market share in Phoenix.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/realestate/10274586.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
http://biz.yahoo.com/brn/060317/18272.html
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