March 29, 2006

Falling Phoenix: "Cancellations rampant"

We're soaring past 40,000 unsold homes (officially) on the market, up from 5,000 a year ago. Now here come the reports of soaring cancellations and falling sales. Or, as some realtor hacks will continue to say to ignorant unchallenging reporters, a "more normal market".

The latest numbers show consumers have had it with high home prices. According to the Phoenix Housing Market Letter, permits for new homes fell more than 20 percent in February compared with the same month in 2005.

“The drop was considerably more than most observers had anticipated and the industry hoped for,” the newsletter’s authors wrote. “The 3,729 permits issued was the lowest total in the last 24 months. Cancellations were rampant.” Homes that were resold also dipped more than 11 percent from 8,722 in February 2005 to 7,774 during the same month this year, the newsletter said.

19 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think it will take a year of falling sales numbers before the idiots figure out what is going on. Remember, these were the same morons who bought at the top. It's not easy admitting that one is a total idiot

Anonymous said...

Hey, the consumer confidence numbers are up for March. Driving down that blind alleyway with the pedal to the metal...

panicearly said...

life is good until it`s not good.

Mozo Maz said...

I'll amend my comment a little. The panic of 1893 was more currency based. The panic of 1873 was more railroad and land based. Check it out:

Panic of 1873

Anonymous said...

Keith,

Talk about denial! Check out these quotes from realators in Phoenix, especially the one from Dottie Stein:

http://realtytimes.com/rtmcrloc/Arizona~Phoenix

Un-f'n-believable!

Anonymous said...

We're still seeing decade-over-decade increases in Phoneix. It's a great time to buy!

Don said...

those people sure drink their own kool-aid don't they ? or maybe they are lying through their teeth in desperation to improve the market perception.

Anonymous said...

those people sure drink their own kool-aid don't they ? or maybe they are lying through their teeth in desperation to improve the

Robert Coté said...

Those "stairs" look exatly like a mirror image of the last 15 Fed rate hikes.

Denver_Investor said...

People filter what they see and hear to match past decisions they have made. We all do it here every day.

So people who bought into the bubble won't admit it WAS a bubble until there's no way they can go on ignoring it. We aren't there yet.

Just look at the rally that's been going on in the home building stocks!

Anonymous said...

People will cling onto their homes and investment properties until foreclosure IMO. They will hope and wish and pray that the market will turn around in time for them to sell at a profit or breakeven. I'm figuring it will be a year after this spring before prices really collapse through mass foreclosures.

Anonymous said...

IMO..everybody wants to live the live of people the see of TV. All TV show families have nice homes, 3 kids and people never seem to talk about money and they always have enough money for the fun family vacation...of course there are always a few shows that are more realistic.

My point is..can you imagine the pyscological blow for somebody to loose their home...to not have that life style they dream about from watching TV. I think that's why people are delusional about what's going on in the RE market. Its going to take reality to smack them in face when they simple cannot afford to pay their mortgage b/c of the ARM / Interest Only loan they took out.

So..I think its going to take another 9 to 18 months before you see a noticeable decline in prices.

Anonymous said...

Keith,

It really IS getting bad out there: Hooters Air just went "tits up":

http://tinyurl.com/rwdpj

Anonymous said...

My neighbor's been out of work for over a year. Wife has left w/the kids and the house is for sale, but no one is buying (major Midwest city). Totally f'd...

Anonymous said...

Reality is meeting real estate here in Grand Junction, CO. While builders are going flat out with new construction, sales of completed homes have stalled, and "Just Reduced" is showing up more frequently in RE ads. Some RE agents are trying mind games by setting the asking price 20% higher than comps would suggest. I suppose they expect buyers to ratchet up their offers accordingly, but people aren't that dumb.

Anonymous said...

TV people never take a shit either, so what's your point?

All that glitters is not GOLD

Pete said...

Two of my friends canceled there nice Scottsdale, AZ condo purchase agreements!!

And they were the ones that were telling me if I don't buy now I will never be able to afford Scottsdale!!

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