February 25, 2006

Wonk alert: Start getting your heads around the issues with the Dollar. It will have an enormous impact on your lives


In the short run, the issuer of a fiat reserve currency can accrue great economic benefits. In the long run, it poses a threat to the country issuing the world currency. In this case that’s the United States. As long as foreign countries take our dollars in return for real goods, we come out ahead. This is a benefit many in Congress fail to recognize, as they bash China for maintaining a positive trade balance with us. But this leads to a loss of manufacturing jobs to overseas markets, as we become more dependent on others and less self-sufficient. Foreign countries accumulate our dollars due to their high savings rates, and graciously loan them back to us at low interest rates to finance our excessive consumption.

It sounds like a great deal for everyone, except the time will come when our dollars-- due to their depreciation-- will be received less enthusiastically or even be rejected by foreign countries. That could create a whole new ballgame and force us to pay a price for living beyond our means and our production. The shift in sentiment regarding the dollar has already started, but the worst is yet to come.

The artificial demand for our dollar, along with our military might, places us in the unique position to “rule” the world without productive work or savings, and without limits on consumer spending or deficits. The problem is, it can’t last.

Price inflation is raising its ugly head, and the NASDAQ bubble-- generated by easy money-- has burst. The housing bubble likewise created is deflating. Gold prices have doubled, and federal spending is out of sight with zero political will to rein it in. The trade deficit last year was over $728 billion. A $2 trillion war is raging, and plans are being laid to expand the war into Iran and possibly Syria. The only restraining force will be the world’s rejection of the dollar. It’s bound to come and create conditions worse than 1979-1980, which required 21% interest rates to correct. But everything possible will be done to protect the dollar in the meantime. We have a shared interest with those who hold our dollars to keep the whole charade going.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

From: http://marinrealestatebubble.blogspot.com/, Saturday, February 18, 2006, American Dream to Become a "Roach Motel Nightmare"? quoting a Barron’s article

“THE RED-HOT U.S. HOUSING MARKET MAY be fast approaching its date with destiny. Indeed, inside the mortgage trade, much anxiety is being focused on a looming "reset problem." Over the next two years, monthly payments on an estimated $600 billion of mortgages to borrowers with checkered or no credit histories -- the "sub-prime" market -- may zoom as much as 50% higher, as the two-year teaser rates on hybrid adjustable-rate loans expire and interest payments hit their fully indexed levels.

What this means is those who can not refinance --and the requirements are tightening up-- may see their mortgage payment double. Since salaries have not really grown in the last few years there are going to be folk who will be strong-ARMed out of their homes and those who aren’t will have a lot less disposable income. Many of these people will be desperate to sell, even giving up the paper gains to avoid bankruptcy (remember, bankruptcy laws have changed!) Those who hang on will face yearly payment hikes by a FED desperate to stave of inflation/recession.
This will result in a positive feedback scenario: systems controlled by positive feedback oscillate badly out of control, kind of like the howling feedback of a microphone. You ought to be able to hear the howling late 2006.

Anonymous said...

You should also note that high oil prices create an extreme demand for $'s. This will not change anytime soon.

Cheers

Anonymous said...

utah/ austin/ seattle,bainbridge island, s&s homes in socal still selling homes no problem and no drop in prices. Were years away from melt down if any. The prices will be flat maybe for years in my estimate. People on all the sites keep talking about rates going up but rates still have not moved much so tell the truth. Rates will have to get to 7.5 to 8 to have a real impact. The only thing that will cause real estate to crash is if china, japan , south korea etc stop buying our bonds but this wont happen no where else to put there money.

Anonymous said...

why will all the resets not be financed similiar to what they already have. I'm sure they have equity. Most reset beginning 06,o7,08 were purchased 01,02,03, lots of equity and possibly will get a lower rate now then back in 01,02,03. rates are pretty much where they been all this talk about rates are up not really. I know lots of people still getting with no doc etc and the rates are still pretty low. until rates hit 7.5 or higher no doom likely.

Anonymous said...

plunging dollar will make US real estate cheaper to foreign investors.

cindy said...

Okay Anon 12:31, I'm beginning to see a pattern here.

I guess this is what happens when the bubble bursting becomes loud enough for the over-invested sheeple to see it.

Sorry, I know it's hard and scary too, but RE prices in Seattle are coming down and,
with the way things are going world-over, they'll probably be sliding fast and hard once they pick up momentum.

Sell now if it's worrying you. That's all I can say. Or live in your house forever and be happy! That's possible too you know!

Good luck and God Bless

Dogcrap Green said...

dollar has made a great come back and there is still room for more, much more room.

It's up 10% against the Euro for the past year. Think about this. A european could have bought the US teasury bills for 4%, plus the 10% dollar strengthing. And at the end of the year cash them in for 14% gain.

5 years ago your point was valid, and the dollar crashed. But keep in mind our government taxes profits more than consumptions. htis is far different than the $10 you are paying per gallon of gas to fuel your overseas economy.

5 years ago you would have been right to predict the government's problem and the crashing of the dollar. But today profits are rising and our government income is soaring.

I predict the dollar will trade at 1 euro before the year is over

Grinch34 said...

Dogcrap is a very fitting name for you.

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