February 25, 2006

Cancelled home orders: Latest bubble prick?


And to think we're just getting started.... Boy this feels like what happened to Cisco in 2000.. build all this capacity and then poof! The orders dry up and the cancellations pour in.

Home builders are growing concerned about an increasing number of cancelled new home orders, which experts say could be a sign of an underlying weakness in the recent run in home prices.

Specifically, the cancelled orders could be the latest warning sign that buyers who were turning to real estate as an investment, rather than for their own housing needs, are shifting out of real estate. And that could mean that in many hot markets, the air is about to come out of over-inflated real home prices overall.

The flight of investor-buyers from the housing market and the increased cancellations could therefore push real estate prices lower in different markets.

"If you've overbuilt the market and sales get cancelled, you have to do something with the homes," said Seiders. "The incentives we're seeing builders offering are clearly designed to support prices and stop cancellations."

64 comments:

Anonymous said...

utah/ austin/ seattle,bainbridge island, s&s homes in socal still selling homes no problem and no drop in prices. Were years away from melt down if any. The prices will be flat maybe for years in my estimate. People on all the sites keep talking about rates going up but rates still have not moved much so tell the truth. Rates will have to get to 7.5 to 8 to have a real impact. The only thing that will cause real estate to crash is if china, japan , south korea etc stop buying our bonds but this wont happen no where else to put there money.

new 200 Mbps BROADBAND over POWER LINES said...

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Anonymous said...

In response to the_banker's comments, I sincerely hope that the owner of this blog would not delete comments. I am an avid reader of this blog and find the information very interesting, but it would definitely do us readers a disservice if comments are deleted.

keith said...

the banker needed to learn a lesson on who's boss.

the_banker said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Bayh_Allen_2008 said...

careful last anon......keith is going to delete your post like he just did to the banker......fyi keith, the banker also posted on your troll article so you might want to delete that one too

Anonymous said...

don't delete comments or else you are a coward!!

Anonymous said...

banker - if you are in the us, just post around six in the evening.....the blog master is located in europe so he can't delete your posts when he is sleeping

Anonymous said...

I lost all respect for the banker now that I see his true self, His group of misfit helpers are just as bad! Are you still a 16yo?
I'll bet you check back here often to see what rise you got out of it.

do you giggle like little girls when your done posting?

Anonymous said...

Keith should leave the comments up. However, let it be said that Keith's bubble thesis will be vindicated and the banker will be the wanker in the end.

Anonymous said...

Hey y'all, not sure if ZipRealty is having data probs, but lately the data has been very irratic. Anyhow... there cancellations blooming, and I too have personal connections at HBs. The shit is hitting th fan, and my pals, are making backup plans for when layoffs could hit in late 06 or 07

Flip


Phoenix

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cindy said...

Anon 12:27-

wow, don't know where you are posting from but I'm guessing it's not Seattle.

Don't know about what's happening with new construction but can say that without a doubt existing home sale prices are dropping.

Have you seen the price reductions around town?!! And DOM are climbing like mad. It's pure eye candy for somebody who's been watching this market for years just waiting for it to start going backwards.

Thank God!!

bayh_Allen_2008 said...

I think he is looking at this......Seattle is actually looking pretty healthy:

http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker/location/Washington/Seattle/

Bayh_Allen_2008 said...

http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker
/location/Washington/Seattle/

keith said...

banker, i realize you're some type of weird egomaniac person who feels persecuted, but if you can't contribute positively to the discussion, go away. also, do not post the same comment to more than one string or I'll delete you every time. that's called spam

reluctant renter said...

keith - why the love affair with the banker? you're always calling him out......if you don't want him on your site, then stop agitating him......your provocations give him a right to be heard though

seattle price drop said...

bay_allen_2008:

Check out the Zip Realty website (price reductions and DOM's) for your favorite neighborhood.

I think you'll be surprised.

moman said...

Don't you idiots realize that flat prices are a bust? If housing doesn't appreciate (0%) and inflation is 3%, you have lost 3% of your housing value.

Look at my other post where I explained MATHEMATICALLY how 10 years of flat prices would reduce housing prices by 40% with 5% inflation, which is very close to where we are today.

brokersleaveyoubroke said...

For most people flat is worse then bust. If you sell a house for the same price you paid for it then you lost almost 10% in realtor fees and expenses. Flippers need at least a 10% rise to make a profit otherwise they're screwed.

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