Call me idealistic, or maybe it's 10 years living in the sea of tract homes called Phoenix, but boy, it's sure impressive to see what life was like before Wal-Mart, before suburbia, before category-killer US retail monoliths (Best Buy, Target, Home Depot, ...)
Sure, Europe (and London) have their share of problems... high taxes, sky-high home prices, high cost of living, inefficiencies everywhere. But when it comes to the big Q - quality of life -this takes the cake.
I've been here in Chelsea for two weeks now. I walk to my local butcher, my neighborhood cheese shops, my bakery, my bookstore, my pub (of course), my florist, my tailor, my caffe, my electronics store, my pharmacy, my printer, ... The list goes on
Individual merchants. Individual businesses. Who know their customers.
And yes, who charge more than Wal-Mart would if it moved into the 'hood. But business people who hire folks at decent wages, who take their profits and reinvest them in the village. Who improve the quality of life of the neighborhood, the neighbors, and themselves.
Can we say that about Wal-Mart?
So, how does this relate to the housing bubble? Here's my theory. We've (as Americans) had about 10 years now of the Category Killer. Think how big Wal-Mart, Best Buy and Home Depot are now vs. 10 years ago. Now think about all the local businesses you used to go to (Ace Hardware, Joe's electronics Store, and your local Grocery) that are no longer there.
Then think about your town. Think about how far homes are being built away from the city center. Think about the miles of new highways, think about the traffic, think about the pollution.
And think about how much future generations are going to reject this type of living - driving for miles and miles, sitting in traffic, shopping at bland (and cheap!) conglomerations.
Then think about the central areas of your town, that still feel like a village, or town. Where neighbors know each other. Where there are local restaurants, local shops. And no Wal-Marts.
Think about home values (not prices, but values) in these desirable central areas. Now think about home (and life) values in the far-flung bland suburbs (see Gilbert, Arizona)
And there you have it. The bubble will be felt first and foremost in the boring, bland, Wal-Martburghs, where life is cheap. Supply and demand - there's now a ton of supply, and there will be less and less demand (especially with $4 a gallon gas). Pop goes the fringes.
That's my take, inspired by a wonderful village of wonderful shops, with no Wal-Marts, and no tract homes.
February 04, 2006
Before Wal-Mart, Before Suburbia... Pop goes Wal-Martburgh
Posted by blogger at 2/04/2006
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46 comments:
This post is precisely correct, and something virtually no one in America realizes yet.
I've spent the last ten years living half the year in central London (Westminster), walking to all the local shops, enjoying the luxury of a dense sophisticated city. It's exactly as wonderful as described here.
But I also live in central San Francisco, and it's really much the same. Walk to all the local shops for food and everything else, dozens of restaurants within a few blocks, a great variety of classic housing. My wife and I drive less than 3000 miles a year in San Francisco, including weekend trips away.
The wonderful central cities of America are still here, and offer a path for the future. This is not a secret: anyone can see the vast influx of well-off people in their 40s and 50s who have moved to San Francisco in the last decade and rebuilt old houses, often bringing their money from the dull-gray suburbs of Silicon Valley to a more-livable style of life.
Yes you are enjoying the Chelsea neighborhood.
Just remember you are free and fairly safe because of USA commitment to keeping you free and safe as possible.
USA is the greatest society and country in the history of the world. Perfect! No, but this free society in 1776 caused a change in the entire world. This USA saved England, as it should have from Hitler. This 1776 country caused England, France, to be get their own Bill of Rights.
This USA great country which has the free press is also free for individuals to cause themselves great pain because of the interest only and ARM's loans.
I hope this housing Crash and Burn does not bring a recession or depression.
You are doing a good job on this blog. Don't forget where you came from and enjoy your freedom to go and do as you please. 41cadillac
Yes the middle of London is wonderful. But anon is right, the larger and older cities in the US have the same thing, and if you travel to the outskirts of London or to any smaller town in the UK, you will see the same Wal Marterization, probably the only controlling factor is the price of gas.
As for Cadillac41 - how rude, and how xenophobic.
I live in the wealthy part of West Pasadena. The people I encounter on the street in my neighborhood are afraid to say hello when passing on the street. They are afraid to know each other and my impression is that they are this way out of self preservation. Just a few blocks away in South Pasadena it is quite different. You see families on the street, kids playing older couples gardening, a sense of ease and openness. I have had several homes all over California and the residents are the least friendly and comfortable in the areas where the homes are expensive.
Wow. I expected to se -some- US bashing in the post and replies but the level of venom is amazing. you guys should join the cheerleaders at
http://www.planetizen.com/ where this exurbophobia stuff has been raised to an art form.
JDs one bedroom flat in Chelsea cost the same as the median US salary before taxes. Quality of life at a price no one can afford. The problem is one of transititory demographics. JD doesn't need to worry about many of the things that 10 years from now will become very important. His perspective and values are not wrong, thay are just not representative of the vast majority.
JD is entirely correct about the dissapative nature of Walmart. Money does not multiple, indeed it is extracted from the local economy all the while walmart exploits a tragedy of the commons loophole in its' business model.
That said $4 gas does not impact the exurbs disproportionately. If anything expensive transportation will acellerate the process of exurbanization. Kunstler the Hustler has been uniformly wrong about near everything for decades this issue is no different. Read him for entertainment purposes not for insight. I love his eyesore of the month btw.
Hatred of the evolving exurban US development model is no substitute for analysing the respective strengths and weaknesses of it and other patterns. I suggest publicpurpose.com and demographia..com for a lot of urban comparisons.
What you describe sounds so nice: friendly merchants and a charming, compact neighborhood with lots of character. I used to love that kind of thing when I was younger and single. Now we have a little girl and urban areas have little appeal. I don't like the Walmart Effect, but when I need diapers or cat food I go there. What I'm saying is that a large chunk of the American economy and culture revolves around families with children whose priorities usually focus on things like crime, number of bedrooms, schools, reasonable proximity to job, reasonable availability of the stuff you need for typical life.
That said, I moved away from CA because I thought it was too vast with sprawl and freeways and SUVs and Big Box shopping centers. I now live in a more village-like town (Avon, CT) where people are much more genuine and friendly.
Someday if I feel I could pull it off, I'd probably move to Japan. (41Cad, stick that in your pipe and smoke it!)
Robert Cote
What's with the rant? I sensed nothing here that is venomous. Some people like cities and they are entitled to their opinions. I say Vive L'difference.
BTW, I live in "the" proverbial "exurb". I don't know where you get the "facts" that you spew everywhere. Please enlighten me and everyone else as to how an energy supply shock is going to get people into their cars and bolting from the urbanized areas to exurbs? The logic escapes me. Also how do exurbanites use less energy?
I work as a City Planner and smartgrowth is always pitched as win-win and everywhere you say notsomuch. Again enlighten me please
Dave
Dave said;
What's with the rant? I sensed nothing here that is venomous.
Let's start with a few recent examples; "rant," facts in quotation marks and "spew." As a planner this knee jerk response is entirely expected. Planners are notorious for exactly this same behavior while all the while failing to see what's wrong with comments like "the logic escapes me." Vive L'difference implies also live and let live. Unfortunately the cenurbs are so dependent on subsidies to maintain their bucolic lifestyles that they need to pick the pockets of the exurbs to keep up appearances.
You are correct that SmUG is -pitched- as a win-win situation but in practice it turns out that even the most agressive proponents admit that SmUG requires "public participation." Code for subsidies. As to energy with one notable exception (NYC) it turns out that exurbanites and cenurbanites use about the same energy per capita. Witihin the probable cumulative error plus minus single digit percent. No one can adequately explain why NYC reports 30% lower per capita energy use or why it lies so many SD away from all other places in the US so most dismiss it as a reporting error. About the only reasonable partial explanation I've heard is that total energy use is divided by weekday population. Then there's the myth of transit. Transit does not save energy. The BTS is quite clear on this point even using the massaged APTA figures. In addition to raw energy use, transit consumes wealth. It costs approx 4 times as much per passenger mile to deliver a transit passenger as it does via POV. Consuming wealth in the US is the same as consuming energy. You are just buying into the Kunstler doom and gloom. The idea of $5 gas would actually kill transit in short order. Transit use rises in good economies and falls in bad. High gas
prices have only the potential over the short term to depress the economy.
Thus high gas prices will adversely impact ridership. If anyone thinks
economy and transit usage are no so related I suggest looking at the Silicon
Valley.
Subsidies are not always bad. They've done some great things. Velcro, Teflon,
binary nerve agents. Okay, maybe not Velcro. Point being there's subsidies
and there's investments. Some investments are surely not going to pay off
and there are some that only collectively make sense, sewers for example.
The problem is transit has fallen far below sewers in public import and
worse still it has entirely divorced itself from any prospect of ever having
a payback. $5 gasoline isn't going to send people back to 6 story cold
water walkups and hand scheduling department store deliveries for employment
just so transit makes sense again.
You want to see the OPACs (obsolete pre-automotive cities) collapse overnight? Room Temperature
Superconduction (RTSC). Or a 30% increase in photovoltaic efficiency or a
50% drop in TCO costs. Or removal of the innumerable urban subsidies.
Transit is the urban tail wagging national policy. Urban policy is the tail
wagging national preeminence. Transit is perhaps the most anti-capitalist
hold over from our ill fated experimentation with socialism and needs to go. That mean an end to our propping up the cities that refuse to cange but it is better than the alternative.
Don't worry, WALMARTITIS is creeping into Europe!
By the way how dare you desire to deny all the box stores like Walmart there MEGA MARKUPS on China made stuff!!! Don't you know that the profit belongs to THEM not you! How dare you question the inevitable march toward GLOBALIZATION. The Democrats and Republicans ALL support it! And the cute crowd gets enriched ONE more time! As for you.... go retrain yourself.....
How DARE you want "quality of life"! It is only "they" who can live in wealth in Boca Raton... etc!
By the way Keith, look at what the people are wearing there..... They certainly are not wearing their WALMART BEST! Oh what dupes most Americans have become.......
I don’t like what I see happening in America. I remember my grandfather telling me years ago about Wall-Mart … how they come into a small town (at that time in the Midwest), set up shop and displace all the local merchants in the community by undermining them with cheap goods. Is this good for America??? HELL NO!
Now 25 years later Wall-Mart has become a household name, distributing their cheap foreign made goods to the general public … and who does this really hurt??? The average Joe.
I’m now in my late thirties, and I would hate to be called a luddite, but I’m totally against this new way of importing goods from a foreign land, displacing community jobs … not knowing who the my insurance agent is … not knowing who my gardener is … not really knowing who the hell my neighbor is.
I yearn for my grandparents America!
Robert Cote-
How's this for an explanation of why New Yorkers use less energy:
They WALK an awful lot
They live in MUCH SMALLER spaces than other Americans- hence less to heat and cool.
You normally sound pretty intelligent but wowsers, it's clear you haven't done much thinking through on this subject.
I do my part in boycotting Walmart. Too bad they keep hitting more and more record sales.
Anonymous said...
How's this for an explanation of why New Yorkers use less energy:
They WALK an awful lot
They live in MUCH SMALLER spaces than other Americans- hence less to heat and cool.
Mighty powerful "claims." They are claims right? Not guesses? You see I'm not anonymous and I use resources like JTW. That's short for Journey To Work, a common reference to test the first claim. Normally JTW would be enough but seeing as you didn't even go to the effort to look there I thought you'd like to know that how much Americans walk is actually tracked and can be reported. Here's a quick unrelated reference to get you started.
http://www.dot.state.ny.us/ttss/tpnys.pdf
One of the things you will notice is that gallons of motor vehicle fuels per capitia is very very low. Now the urge is to assume that is because NYawkwers drive less but the NPTS says otherwise. This goes a long way towards expalining why NY claims to be more energy efficient. With the highest by far gas taxes in the region people drive to NJ & CT and the Indian reservations to fill up. You see those gas per capita numbers are not measured, they are calcualted from tax reciepts.
You normally sound pretty intelligent but wowsers, it's clear you haven't done much thinking through on this subject.
I've been studying and reporting on transportation/energy/ rural vs. urban issues for more than a decade. I am at your disposal to try and explain the sometimes bewildering comparisons. Suffice it to say that in this instance there still exist no full explaination as to why NYC reports such a low per capita energy consumption. So, give me just this one bit of slack, throw NYC out of the equation and it turns out that the exurbs and the cenurbs use about the same amount of energy per capita.
I love this stuff...
Philip John said...
The USA is not the greatest society or country in the world.
Here is a short list why: slums, pollution, big gap between rich and poor, over-population, poor health care, everything is franchised, cars are crap, too many lawyers, the fact your president is an idiot is seen as a plus, too many religious nuts who think creationism / intelligent design is science etc etc etc.
...
Lose the arrogance.
I which of those categories is the US even among the leaders? Certainly not slums, pollution, distribution of wealth or religious excees and/or intolerance.
That's the problem with conclusion based analysis. you clearly don't like the US and you may even have some legitimate reasons but once you've made up your mind that the US sucks it leaves you casting about for any and every insult you can muster. The Bush thing is most obvious. You disagree with a lot of what he is doing and since you are smart he must be stupid. The stupid thing derives from a coordinated media campaign that hasn't stopped for over 8 years. When Bush was up against Gore did you ever hear thar Bush had recieved better grades and achieved a higher post graduate degree than Gore? Did the media ever emphasize that Bush was fluent in Spanish and Gore couln't even read enough off the paper to be understood? That some of his nephews and nieces were half Hispanic? That his physical conditioning level was twice that of his opponents? No, you heard about Cheny on deaths' door. On and on. Just a single example of what goes on here.
You see, that's the problem. We Americans openly obsess with our problems. Public discourse and other countries mistake this for problems so serious that they spill out onto the street. OTOH we hardly ever hear about Germany and the crushing Turkish racism or Frnace and their suburban slums where the muslims rioted. Those things just aren't talked about you see. How is the situation with your "blacks" going mate?
azfamdeals1 said...
Stating that the USA is the greatest country in the world is exactly like saying that you have the best wife or kids, etc. in the world.
----------------------------------
There are a lot of things that bother me about America, but do I want our country to look more like Europe? No!
I prefer our stupid president stuttering over the microphone to some politically correct Frenchman preaching to me abut the importance of the social safety net.
Let’s see:
Double digit unemployment
Extreme regulations
Extreme Taxes
Religious Zealots burning up Paris
And on, and on, and on …
… Oh, but they do get 8 weeks of paid vacation.
BTW, my wife has got a hot ass and nice boobs … my kid never disobeys me and he’s on the honor role. They’re the best!
Mr. Cote,
I fail to see your points. You just blather on about subsidies and how energy efficient exurbs are. I don't know how you can claim expertise on these topics and be so pedantic.
I've looked at JTW and other data too. I still don't understand why when gas prices go up people will flee a cenurb (where the hell is that term from, just more BS you made up?) to exurbia. Your linkages in your argument are facile at best, delusional in all probability.
Dave
Back to the topic... (yeah I could go on for hours contradicting American history and stereotypes about Europe are and vice versa but that's a whole another blog)
Keith,
I've lived and worked in some of the most beautiful (and overpriced) cities and sprawlburbs in the U.S. and even though Dublin Ireland is overpriced and becoming walmarticized, there are still enough viable village remnants to allow us to enjoy life without spending a sizable fraction of it on the road and without risking life and limb on the road just to visit a neighbor or pick up diapers and milk at the grocery store. I've seen both sides and if U.S. cities don't start some good long term planning, sprawlburbs are going to become unlivable for anyone who has a choice. And I will have a choice.
Anonymous said...
Mr. Cote,
Don't Mr. Cote me. You've called me a bullshitter, delusional and worse. You are and I mean this in the very most accute way; a perfect example of the planning profession. You have been unable to provide any evidence to refute the argument so you resort to attacking the messenger. I am not blatering and you necessity to resort to direct personal attacks says more a bout the strength of my claims than any refutation you could or will produce. So, "Dave" tell us all your name and affiliation so we can thank your city for such a fine example of public service. What? I can't hear you? Face it, you have disgraced your employer with your behavior and you legitamtely fear that the way you've acted could ever get back to your employer. Why is that? Come on, be honest. _IF_ you were acting professionaly you'd be glad to have it get back. Clearly you know yourself that you've behave in the most base and shameful manner. Hang your head in shame. Tomorrow my data will remain unrefuted and you will still be wear the stains you placed there yourself.
Robert_Cote:
You generally have very well reasoned, enlightening posts, but I am not following your "exurbs are more energy efficient".
I believe it's quite the opposite, and here's why:
1. Resources used to build exurbs. Why not redevelop a city lot for a new building (that will be torn down someday) instead of tear down acres of beautiful trees, building new infrastructure (sewer/water/electric lines, roads)?
2. Opportunity cost of #1
As people are putting more emphasis on the exurbs, rot is happening the inner city. Resources are being spent twice (tear down old/build new/rebuild old) instead of being used once (tear down/rebuild old).
I haven't even tried to caculate the massive transportation costs incurred by people driving thousands of extra hours a year and the opportunity costs of commuting because I believe that number alone would trigger a great debate in this country about the same time we are looking at the distinct possibility of $3+ gas if this Iran thing goes "nuclear".
I have no problems with suburbs that are self-sustaining communities. That includes a vibrant downtown shopping district, reasonably priced houses, business environment (jobs). So many exurbs today are nothing more than glofied apartment complexes. There are no jobs. It's mile after mile of generic housing with strip malls/big-box stores on every corner with the prerequisite fast-food joints. No professional jobs or wages.
I also don't buy the argument that jobs will migrate into the exurbs. By the time that happens the exurb turns into a suburb and the people move to a new exurb to experience "new" again.
Wal-Mart is not to blame for soceital ills. I used to be a huge Walmart shopper/supporter but I've discovered (as have many of my friends) that the savings do not justify the extra costs. Those costs include opportunity cost of standing in 10 person deep checkout lines, and the cost to the American economy of importing cheap Chinese made junk. I make an honest effort to buy American products when available and that is next to impossible in WalMart.
We will NEVER see the return to the old days of small shops but there is a huge market for those located near "fake-luxury" developments. If it's the cool/hip/yuppie thing to do someone will make a killing. Starbucks is a prime example, it was "cool" to go and they have developed millions of consumers who will pay $5 for a premium cup of coffee but who still complain about paying $2 for gasoline.
.
Moman said...
Robert_Cote:
You generally have very well reasoned, enlightening posts, but I am not following your "exurbs are more energy efficient".
I don't blame you. i didn't say that. I said; "That said $4 gas does not impact the exurbs disproportionately. If anything expensive transportation will acellerate the process of exurbanization" and "As to energy... exurbanites and cenurbanites use about the same energy per capita. Witihin the probable cumulative error plus minus single digit percent. "
That's not so hard to belive as what you thought I read. I will address your perceptions individually.
I believe it's quite the opposite, and here's why:
1. Resources used to build exurbs. Why not redevelop a city lot for a new building (that will be torn down someday) instead of tear down acres of beautiful trees, building new infrastructure (sewer/water/electric lines, roads)?
Redevelopment is far more expensive than greenfield construction even when that means extending infrastructure. That's why we need redevelopemnt agencies and zones the the subsidies they bring and we tax the greenfields mercilessly exacerbating in both instances housing affordability and reducing housing choice.
2. Opportunity cost of #1
As people are putting more emphasis on the exurbs, rot is happening the inner city. Resources are being spent twice (tear down old/build new/rebuild old) instead of being used once (tear down/rebuild old).
That's not technically an opportunity cost but I understand your point. There are lots of hidden costs to brownfield redevelopment and the near universal smultaneous densification not least of which is the time it takes to do all those things compared to scratch build and remember existing neighborhoods have numerous factions to satisfy as well.
I haven't even tried to caculate the massive transportation costs incurred by people driving thousands of extra hours a year and the opportunity costs of commuting because I believe that number alone would trigger a great debate in this country about the same time we are looking at the distinct possibility of $3+ gas if this Iran thing goes "nuclear".
That's a common fallacy promulgated by the SmUGLERS (Smart Urban Growth Lovers). The cost in real terms of POV mobility has been falling for over 80 years. At the same time the costs for the inner urban areas has been increasing. Particularly transit.
I also don't buy the argument that jobs will migrate into the exurbs. By the time that happens the exurb turns into a suburb and the people move to a new exurb to experience "new" again.
Over 80% of all new jobs are created in the suburbs and this has been the case for more than a generation. This wasn't a prediction, i was relating census data.
Wal-Mart is not to blame for soceital ills. I used to be a huge Walmart shopper/supporter but I've discovered (as have many of my friends) that the savings do not justify the extra costs. Those costs include opportunity cost of standing in 10 person deep checkout lines, and the cost to the American economy of importing cheap Chinese made junk. I make an honest effort to buy American products when available and that is next to impossible in WalMart.
I agree with a lot of that. My biggest objection to Walmart is their treatment of suppliers. Don't get me started.
Anyway, just what is it about my reporting the Census, BTS, FHWA, APTA, EIA, OHIM, NTD and other data that you don't follow? The early work by Helen Ladd on density and municipal service costs? The FBI UCR? The common knowledge of heat island effects and the problems caused by congestion? Do you disagree with the admittedly unobvious assertion that transit subsides consume wealth and therefor energy? Shouldn't the vicious direct personal attacks by the professional planner hiding behind an pseudonym be evidence enough that i am speaking uncomfortable truths? What about any of this is hard to follow? I understand if you want specifics and references for specific elements but too dismiss the whole of my claims just because they diff from what you've always believed is not refutation. I do want to thank for not following the excrebale example set by the representative of the professional planning community and keeping your objections civil and focused on the subject. Disagreement is how we learn. distaste is what we learn from those who under the guise of planning want to exercise control and squelch dissent. I've long maintained that planning is to science what astrology is to astronomy.
Mr. Cote,
You just make some wild claims and don't give supporting data or references. I know you are quite well known on many blogs for being at the least snarky. But imho if you are going to make a claim that is against the mainstream give details as to why those claims are true in your opinion, instead of just your opinion. From what I have seen so far in this blog you have given very little.
Dave
Anonymous Dave said...
Mr. Cote,
You just make some wild claims and don't give supporting data or references.
I didn't? Are you getting all the posts? Do you want specific urls? That can be arranged for the specific instances where you are information deficient but would prove impossibly long and confusing given the audience to merey dump several dozen supporting studies on the message board.
I know you are quite well known on many blogs for being at the least snarky.
Snarky? You mean it isn't normal to respond tersley to direct personal attacks of the pendantic bullshitter variety? Well known? I had no idea i had a following of any sort. Perhaps you could relate several examples and the circumstances.
But imho if you are going to make a claim that is against the mainstream give details as to why those claims are true in your opinion, instead of just your opinion. From what I have seen so far in this blog you have given very little.
I've already made it clear that you are not the target audience. You are merely the sounding board. My "opinions" are actually the reporting of the mainstream data that contradicts the common assertions of the professional planning community. Ask your specific questions and I will continue to answer even in the face of continued abuse. You see, as much as you are used to getting away with derision I am equally able to exploit that defect in your arguments merely by pointing it out.
I'm in the military and I lived in Northern Italy for 7 years before I returned to the US. Upon arrival I was shocked at the bland and lifeless cities (I'd forgotten how it was). I now live in Boise Idaho and I have looked everywhere for the same quality of life I had in Europe and it just doesn't exist in the US. The closest I have found to Europe is Vancouver, Canada. Everyone would have you believe the United States is the best counry in the world, but unless your the type who's only concern is chasing the all-mighty dollar this is one of the ugliest countries I've ever been, as far as cities go.
About 0.01% of the UK population can afford the Chelsea lifestyle, or the ability to live anywhere like that, so you're sniffing pretty rareified ozone here.
America's virtues are in my opinion mostly about what life is like for the 'middle 90%'; what does or does not happen in Chelsea doesn't have much bearing on this.
That said, Chelsea has a significant problem with wealthy residents being knifed to death at their front doors and on the streets at night, by local yobs and immigrants from the third world. 2 weeks' experience may not have been enough to acquaint you with this phenomenon but... it may find you.
And don't btw try carrying any sort of defensive measures around with you - they're all banned.
I'll chime in - be it late.
I currently live in London (American). I have lived here on a off for 10 years. I have travelled all around Europe several times on business. I have many European friends.
The one thing I can say is that Americans enjoy a greater QUANTITY of life, but Europeans enjoy a greater QUALITY of life. Euros, I find, are generally happier, friendlier, have a good work/life balance, etc. This goes from the highest earner down to even those on the "dole". They don't obsess as much on material items, and they certainly don't live by the mantra of letting what you own (on credit) end up owning you.
And don't even get me started on the differences between American and European women...
Blogging for information on flags is very interesting. Some of the posts I find are right on target. Others are completely way off. This Blogger thing takes you down some strange roads.
--us flags
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