November 23, 2005

Housing inventory balloons in Orlando

Remember (just a few months ago) bidding wars? Remember "if you don't get in now you may get priced out of the market" panic? Remember splashy condo opening parties? Remember lines and lotteries? Oh, boy, isn't all of that seeming silly today?

The number of homes for sale in the Orlando area ballooned by more than 2,200 properties last month to hit an eight-year high -- the clearest sign yet that the region's red-hot housing market might be about to cool off.

Orlando's existing-home sales remained strong in October, a local trade group reported Tuesday. Completed deals in the four-county metro area were up more than 27 percent from October 2004, and the median price of those sold in the market's core crept up for the first time in three months to set another record.

But the bidding wars are subsiding, and the inventory of available homes jumped from 6,786 at the end of September to 8,992 at the end of October, according to the Orlando Regional Realtor Association. That's the largest inventory since 9,129 homes were for sale in May 1997.


everyone_calm_down said...

The blog author says:

"1) Sell all of your personal real estate.
2) Short homebuilders, lenders, Fannie and Freddie, home furnishing retailers and mortgage insurance companies
3) Raise cash and put into 4%+ saving"

I'd like the author of this blog to put his money where his mouth is and tell us what he would do with a $10,000 investment. Using today's 11/23 prices (market has closed for holiday), where would the blog author invest 10k today? Please give us specifics (stocks/shares/prices/long or short/etc.....this way we can see how good this guy really is and see if anything he says has any merit.

keith said...

For the 10k:

$5000 - 4% interest savings at HSBC
$1000 - short FNM
$1000 - short TOL
$1000 - short TGIC
$1000 - short SPF
$1000 - long COP

Please track those puppies and enjoy

And don't flame day to day - this is a play for 12 months. We're in a nice rally right now because housing investment $ is flowing into stocks, and also hedge funds are working overtime to get the market to an increase for 2005 so they can get paid

But 2006 is gonna be ugly

Oh, and don't forget rule #1 - sell your housing - now

everyone_calm_down said...

For those playing at home, here are our hosts picks:

FNM -19.85 shares
TOL -27.63 shares
TGIC -23.06 shares
SPF -25.51 shares
COP 15.60 shares
Cash @ 4% $5,000

Wes D said...

Not surprising. The weaker Florida markets will be the first to fall. Orlando is the weakest major market in FL. A majority of that town is based on tourist traps and we know those places don't pay that well. There are some high tech (well paying) jobs in Lake Mary and northern Orlando.

I predict Tallahassee, Ft. Myers, and Jacksonville will fall in the next round. Then it will be Tampa. Finally, the greater Miami area will finish it off and then all of Florida will be in a housing bust. (BTW, last I heard Tampa is flat year over year)

keith said...

ECD - My picks are SHORT SALE - not buys, except for COP... betting they'll go down, not up

Kool mo dee?

keith said...

moman - are you in florida? if so, don't you think miami is the most dangerous, with 50,000 condos coming on market with no buyers or residents?

41cadillac said...

More cracks....soon crumble, crash, and burn..... One realtor resorting to "brutal honesty" to clients.
Home sales shifting into buyer's market
Wednesday November 16, 9:59 pm ET

As signs of a real estate slowdown mount, more agents are having to break the bad news to sellers:

Sellers have to "get a grip on the market," Michael Lyon says.

Roberta Murphy of Windermere Exclusive Properties in Carlsbad, Calif., says she has resorted to "brutal honesty" when discussing what a seller's home is actually worth in "today's" market.

skytrekker said...

Happy Thanksgiving to all-including the creator HP.

Snow this morning in Connecticut-hey 41; Happy Thanksgiving to you. 1-2" of snow here- but warming into the 50s early next week. I wonder how those former Golden state residents are enjoying their first Thanksgiving in the Nutmeg state?

Wes D said...

41 -

Yes I'm in Florida (Tampa).

I think that Miami is dangerous with condos. Yet the one thing Miami does have is many affluent immigrants, South Beach, lots of Latin American headquarters for large corporations, Atlantic ocean. If it weren't for the influx of condos, I think Miami would be OK.

Orlando has nothing but theme park operators, motels and restaurants, and sleezy camera shops. (Read: low paying jobs) That's why I expect that Orlando will be the first major market to fall, followed by Jax/Tallhassee, then Tampa & Miami. Mind you, I expect all markets will weaken at the same time but the greater relative drops will be in the first cities.

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