November 23, 2005

Get your cash ready - Post-Bubble Real Estate Plays


Here's a write-up from Forbes. What I would suggest as the best plays for the next two years are:

1) Sell all of your personal real estate. Period.
2) Short homebuilders, lenders, Fannie and Freddie, home furnishing retailers and mortgage insurance companies
3) Raise cash and put into 4%+ savings (HSBC, Emmigrant Direct)
4) Wait

Then in 2008, swoop in like the vulture you are and buy distressed real estate, with positive cash flow as rental property.

Then grow rich. Period.

Here's Forbes:


If the housing market crashes, watch for apartment REITs to hit new highs.

Real estate remains an investment category with more emotional baggage than most. We have intimate daily contact with our own real estate, and it can be hard to separate what that means to us from what is happening in the vast and varied real estate marketplace.

While the industry continues to become ever more transparent, largely because of the increasing weight of institutional capital in the mix, there is still plenty of confusion and even obfuscation. There is also a continuing disconnect between the way investors may understand their personal real estate holdings and their perceptions of the public securities market for real estate.

With more buzz than ever about real estate, especially when it comes to talk of a housing bubble, it can be equally tough to separate what's really important from what marketers--and even your neighbors--might like you to think

18 comments:

41cadillac said...

Peter Slatin's statement that real estate is the chosen engine of growth.

Rhetorical questions:

Will the new Fed Chairman state that diabolically.

Will the business news media pump that idea.

What is the course of stock investors. Hmmmmm.......

Peters Statement:

"Real estate itself has never been more important to track. It's been the chosen engine of growth for the nation's economy for nearly five years and will continue to play a critical role going forward for investors and users alike. Easy money? No. Real money? Absolutely."

41cadillac said...

Interesting comment:

The Buffalo News Wed, 23 Nov 2005 5:57 AM PST
WASHINGTON - Ben Bernanke, the nominee to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, said Congress should limit the massive holdings of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in an effort to limit any danger their debt poses to the overall economy.

000000000000000000000000000000000000 said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
keith said...

If/when FRE and FNM are limited - their stocks will plummet

Short 'em

41cadillac said...

I would like to ask Bernanke if he would bust the inflated house prices.


"At his confirmation hearing the day before, Bernanke vowed to bust inflation, boost growth and be his own man if confirmed to succeed the veteran Greenspan as Fed chairman."

Wes D said...

Busting inflation will require breaking housing's back. Housing is the cause of most of the inflation.

keith said...

did you know that the federal inflation # is a fraud? they made a change years ago to count RENT, not home ownership cost, in the #. And as we know, home ownership cost has skyrocketed (thus real inflation) while rent has declined

Part of the fraud, part of the ponzi scheme, and part of the congressional hearings in 2007

Wes D said...

Yes, there will be congressional hearings about mortgage fraud, appraisal fraud, why a $30,000 income person was able to buy a $450,000 house, why the feds didn't stop the speculation, etc.

Hopefully by then I'll have a DVR, should make for the most interesting hearings since the 9/11 report.

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