December 01, 2005

Good opinion/editorial from UK reader on the now exposed UK Ponzi scheme


I travel back and forth between UK and US and will be moving over to the UK this January - and I can tell you, boy, if you think US has a bubble, you should see UK - $1 Million 2 bedroom condos are common, but which rent for $2000 per month (that's high, but nowhere covering the cost of ownership).

That market is going to collapse. Not adjust. Not even out. It will collapse. Why? Because investors can't invest if they can't get a return, and they'll pull out - folks who own rental property losing their shirt every month, and folks who bought hoping to get a value increase.

It's especially to see bubbles in Europe, where population is DECLINING, wages are DECLINING and future prospects are doubtful at best as these Western European economies collapse on their heavy-entitlement, heavily-taxed, anti-business selves.

Here's highlights:


I hope in this rather lengthy post to destroy, or at least challenge, several 'myths' about the UK housing market and property in general. Given the UK's well-known obsession with the asset class (thanks in no small part to ubiquitous media hyping), there are times when I feel like a modern version of those radicals who challenged the assumption that the world was flat.

The myths as I see them are as follows:

1. "You can't go wrong investing in property - house prices always rise."
2. "Renting is dead money"
3. "House prices can't fall - the Bank of England won't allow it"
4. "House prices will at worst flatten out - they won't fall in nominal terms"
5. "House prices won't fall in the absence of an increase in interest rates"
6. "Affordability is the key determinant of value, not multiples of income or rental yields"
7. "House prices will stay high because of demand and supply factors"
8. "House prices have already begun rising again - the Halifax and Nationwide say so."

4 comments:

blogger said...

I was in Ireland this summer, driving by $800,000 (US) shacks, going "who the F in fricking Ireland makes enough money to afford an $800,000 pit!" People I talked to in Dublin could barely afford their third Guiness (but nice folks! - Just paying wayyy to much for a house - and the fall will be hard)

Seriously folks. Ireland?

Marinite said...

It's also in Marin County, CA, USA where outhouses go for over a half a million US dollars:

http://tinyurl.com/8744u

Anonymous said...

Keith, Ireland had a tech boom and still enjoys a construction boom so there are folks with money. But the ratio of house prices to income is the highest in the world, AFAIK the highest in history.

marinite: I'm inclined to say Ireland is worse than Marin. This bit of property just sold for 84 million euro/acre (~$100 million/acre)
http://breakingnews.iol.ie/news/story.asp?j=164404102&p=y644x48x8
About a year ago a public toilet was sold for less than 200,000 euro and it contained flush toilets so maybe it's not quite as bad as Marin ;-)

Insanity!

Anonymous said...

...or does New York City win the global real estate insanity competition with $430/square foot for air above land (actual land not included.)

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,11069-1901734,00.html