HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with an Attitude Problem, 2005 - 2008: BUBBLETALK - October thread to talk about the housing collapse

October 28, 2006

BUBBLETALK - October thread to talk about the housing collapse

Keep it clean, post article links, tell us about local conditions, have a good housing bubble chat

534 comments:

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Anonymous said...: my girfriend says satin gave us dubba.; October 09, 2006 2:43 PM
Anonymous said...: How 'bout we keep going down the path of giving "debt" to anybody with a pulse? (ok, so credit is a synonym for debt here) Hell, we can all live like kings. (right...right?) You can just keep borrowing and borrowing, and so what if you can't even keep up with the interest payments...just roll it right back into the huge debt you already have. (hmmm, kind of like the federal government?)Then one day, you'll cease to exist and your "debt" won't matter to you any more. (of course, everybody will have unlimited funds and therefore nobody's money will hold value...maybe this won't work after all); October 09, 2006 4:42 PM
Anonymous said...: SATIN?; October 09, 2006 4:43 PM
Anonymous said...: Check out this link. Someone did a rags to riches story on Kara homes a few years back. Turns out this guy is a charlatan like the rest of them.

https://secure.xo.com/redcoatpublishing.com/spotlights/sl_04_04_kara.asp; October 09, 2006 4:47 PM
Anonymous said...: Sorry, here is the full link

https://secure.xo.com/redcoatpublis
hing.com/spotlights/sl_04_04_kara.a
sp; October 09, 2006 4:48 PM
Anonymous said...: O.K. Wise Ass, 'If' satan or satin gave us dubya or dubba, then explain where these came from:

Ted Kennedy
Howard Dean
Ross Periot
Pee Wee Herman
Hillary
Pelosi
Madeline Albright
Charro; October 09, 2006 4:54 PM
Anonymous said...: That's an eclectic group you've got there. Pee Wee Herman would take offense, I'm sure.; October 09, 2006 4:58 PM
Anonymous said...: SATIN?

bush is a lavender boy?; October 09, 2006 7:37 PM
Anonymous said...: Often the Brits have a better perspective on our economy than we do. Check out a quote from the Daily Reckoning. UK. The full article is on Patrick.net-

"The anecdotal evidence is not too thin to conclude that the housing market is not just liable to a mild 5% decline – which would wipe $1 trillion from household wealth – but to a full-scale retreat, in which the bids disappear altogether. Some experts are predicting as much as a 20% to 40% collapse in prices – which would be as much as $8 trillion in 'wealth' knocked off homeowners' balance sheets.

And why not? The housing boom has been of historic proportions. Nothing like it has ever happened before. Why shouldn't the US housing bust be extraordinary too? Generally, the bigger the booms, the harder they fall.

But unlike the market for stocks, bonds, and pork bellies, the market for housing does not clear quickly. In a housing bear market, sellers sweat for months and months, hoping a buyer will appear. Poor things..."

5% down= $1 trillion
20-40%= $8 trillion?

Marks have already dropped 5%! and are still in free fall.
I say we can easily reach 20% down by next year. Hang on to your seat folks! This could become a"a bit ugly"!; October 09, 2006 8:25 PM
Roccman said...: The World According to Rummy
Sunday, October 8, 2006; Page B05

On May 1, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld circulated a secret memo titled "Illustrative New 21st Century Institutions and Approaches." The six-page document, excerpted below, highlights the Iranian threat, calls for a multilateral military force and argues that the United States' antiquated system of government makes competence "next to impossible." I obtained the contents of this memo while reporting for "State of Denial: Bush at War, Part III" (Simon & Schuster).

-- Bob Woodward

In The Post's Outlook Section
PANIC TIME: Fear and Loathing In the GOP
RUMSFELD WATCH: It's Time for Him to Go
RUMSFELD WATCH: Worse Than McNamara?
LOST HISTORY DEPT.: The Holocaust's Arab Heroes
JURISPRUDENCE: Congress Behaving Badly
More From Outlook

Before the Fall of the GOP
» George F. Will Democrats should go into another line of work if they can't retake the House in this climate of Republican misery.
Broder: New Star Among the Democrats
Yanukovych: A European Ukraine
PostGlobal: Should the U.S. Partition Iraq?
OPINIONS SECTION: Editorials, Toles

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1. Transformation of international institutions. Today the world requires new international organizations tailored to new circumstances. Many of the more pressing threats are global and transnational in scope. Terrorism proliferation, cyber crime, narcotics, piracy, hostage-taking, criminal gangs, etc. Because they cannot be dealt with successfully by any one nation alone, the cooperation of many nations will be vital. Current institutions such as the UN, NATO, OAS, the African Union, ECOWAS, ASEAN and the European Union, to mention a few, were designed at a time when the world's challenges were notably different. Some were formed over half a century ago to further U.S. foreign and security policy purposes. Today, as U.S. goals in the world at large have changed, existing international institutions have failed to adapt sufficiently. Effective international organizations are needed to bring competence to such areas as quick reaction forces, military training, military police training, counterproliferation, capacity building for the rule of law, governance and domestic ministries. This may require institutions designed for those purposes rather than struggling to reform existing institutions to take on tasks for which they are ill suited.

Examples . . . Peacekeeping and governance. The world and the U.S. would benefit from a "global peace operations and governance corps." A standing capability is needed ready to respond rapidly to deal with emerging situations before they spin out of control. Such a capability would have been useful in just the past few years in Liberia, Haiti and perhaps Sudan.

The U.S. and like-thinking nations could help to enable such a capability by training, equipping and sustaining peacekeepers with military and police capability, perhaps organized regionally in considerably greater numbers than are currently available. . . . Similarly, the U.S. and our friends and allies could help organize and train cadres of international professionals who can assist emerging governments in areas of governance and ministry building. The cost-benefit ratio of being prepared in advance and in benefiting from the use of several nations' troops rather than using solely US military forces would be substantial.

2. Regional challenges. Mideast security initiative. The threat Iran is posing and will likely continue to pose argues that it may well be time to form a new collective security arrangement for the Middle East and/or the Arabian Sea. Already one or two Middle East nations appear to be wondering if they should develop nuclear programs. This is the moment first to reassure key friends of U.S. commitment to shield them from nuclear blackmail through declaratory policy; and second, to find other ways to strengthen cooperation with them. Egypt and Saudi Arabia are the key. The U.S. needs to bolster Arab moderates now while they are viable. Some Gulf states are leaning well forward on this idea. . . .

3. A Goldwater-Nichols process for the national security portions of the U.S. government. The 1986 Goldwater-Nichols legislation led to greater jointness and interdependence in the Department of Defense among the 4 services, but it has taken 20 years to begin to fully realize its potential. The broader [U.S. government] structure is still in the industrial age and it is not serving us well. It is time to consider a new Hoover Commission to recommend ways to reorganize both the executive and legislative branches, to put us on a more appropriate path for the 21st century. Only a broad, fundamental reorganization is likely to enable federal departments and agencies to function with the speed and agility the times demand. The charge of incompetence against the U.S. government should be easy to rebut if the American people understand the extent to which the current system of government makes competence next to impossible.

Foreign assistance. The present structure of the U.S. government foreign assistance is an anachronism. A system is needed that recognizes assistance for what it really is, a component of our national security strategy. In simple terms, DOD has resources but not authorities, while State has authorities but not resources. . . . The only choice is to trash the current laws and to undertake a total overhaul of the current systems.; October 09, 2006 10:02 PM
Anonymous said...: Kieth:

From MSNBC:

"Greenspan said the fall of communism, not sharp interest rate cuts by the Fed, was behind the housing boom in the early part of the decade."

Oh, and the bubble is over and we dodged a bullet...; October 09, 2006 11:41 PM
Anonymous said...: "The BLS/David Lereah use statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts...for urination rather than illumination"; October 10, 2006 1:47 AM
Anonymous said...: Bad loans draw bad blood
Monday, October 09, 2006

By Ruth Simon and Michael Hudson, The Wall Street Journal

BC-WSJ--Mortgages-Bad Loans,1325

Bad loans draw bad blood

Eds: Via AP.

By RUTH SIMON

and

MICHAEL HUDSON

As the housing sector cools, the mortgage market faces an awkward question: Who takes the hit when loans go bad?

A generation ago, nobody asked. Banks made loans and suffered the consequences when borrowers didn't pay. Today, a complex Wall Street machine buys and sells mortgages and packages the loans into securities that are diced and sliced and sold again to investors world-wide.

Although the $9.1 trillion mortgage market has been relatively calm as the housing market has slowed, players on Wall Street and beyond are starting to grapple over bad loans, especially in the market for borrowers with scuffed credit -- so-called subprime customers.

Under contracts that govern the exchange of mortgages, lenders often must take back loans that default very early in their lives or that come with underwriting mistakes, such as flawed property appraisals. As the housing boom fizzles, cases of bad underwriting are popping up and more mortgages are defaulting early. That has investment banks and other mortgage buyers invoking these contract provisions and pressing lenders to repurchase mortgages that get sold to third parties, creating big losses for some lenders.

In response, some of the loan originators are tightening their underwriting standards. Investors and lenders also are doing more financial sleuthing to sniff out problems in loans.

H&R Block Inc. recorded a $131 million loss for the quarter ending July 31, largely because it added $102 million to reserves for loans its unit Option One Mortgage Corp. had to repurchase. In August, Fremont General Corp. of Santa Monica, Calif., said it was dropping or scaling back on some low-down-payment loans and on some loans to subprime customers to reduce mortgage buybacks. Bear Stearns Cos. and other companies are suing lenders that they claim passed on bad mortgages that quickly defaulted.

"In a rising market, even a bad loan is a good loan," said Nate Redleaf, a research analyst with Imperial Capital LLC, a Beverly Hills, Calif., investment bank. "You could be sloppy and it didn't matter. Now people really have to do their jobs. They have to be more vigilant."

Mortgage repurchases aren't always reported, so it is unclear how many loans are being sent back to their lenders, or their total value. A study by Credit Suisse Group found evidence of a jump in the subprime market. It examined 208 bond deals involving pools of subprime mortgages totaling $234 billion. The study found nearly half of these mortgage pools had some loans repurchased in the first quarter of 2006, up from less than a third that faced repurchases in 2005. The dollar value of repurchased mortgages has been small -- well under 1 percent of the total value of mortgages in the pools with at least one repurchase -- but it also climbed, the study found.

It is unclear whether the recent round of mortgage hot potato represents a fine-tuning of the system that helped create the largest mortgage boom in history or the beginning of a more serious shakeout.

While "not serious" at this point, the buybacks are the first real test of the modern mortgage market, said Christopher Mayer, director of the Paul Milstein Center for Real Estate at Columbia Business School. "This will continue to be an issue even in the case of a soft landing" in real estate, he said.

Of the $3.1 trillion in mortgages originated last year, 68 percent were packaged into securities, Bear Stearns said. In the past, most mortgages rolled into securities were standard loans packaged by government-chartered loan clearinghouses Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Investment banks increasingly have gotten in on the action, and they have helped fuel the growth of atypical mortgages, including risky ones that don't require down payments or income documentation.

"You had a well-oiled machine," said Thomas Lawler, a former Fannie Mae economist and now a consultant. As loan volume declined in 2005, lenders got "a little more creative" and loan quality declined.

Credit Suisse estimates early defaults more than doubled on subprime loans that didn't require income documentation between the first quarter of 2004 and the first quarter of 2006.

The current round of loan buybacks began in late 2005 and picked up steam in 2006. It probably will continue for several more quarters if mortgage delinquencies keep rising. "When you see foreclosures rise, you often see buybacks rise," said Doug Duncan, the Mortgage Bankers Association's chief economist. He expects a modest increase in delinquencies in the next year or two.

Mortgage delinquencies have been at historically low levels, and the perceived riskiness of mortgage-backed securities -- as measured by their yields compared with all-but-risk-free Treasury bonds -- has been relatively stable. Overall delinquency rates on mortgages edged up in the second quarter from a year earlier, with the biggest increases in adjustable-rate loans, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Investment banks and others are showing an unwillingness to wait for loans to default before taking action. Some are turning to companies such as Clayton Holdings Inc., which uses computer-driven risk models to find troubling patterns, such as brokers that sold lots of bad loans. Mortgage investors and lenders are "sharpening their pencils and using a thicker magnifying glass," said Keith Johnson, Clayton's president.

Early defaults helped account for Option One's spike in loan repurchases. H&R Block chief executive Mark Ernst told stock analysts in an Aug. 31 conference call that investment banks have been especially aggressive at pushing back early default loans, rather than holding on to them with hopes that borrowers would start paying, as the banks might have done in the past.

"We experienced a significant and unanticipated increase in loan-repurchase requests from investors as first payment defaults accelerated," Mr. Ernst said in the call.

Impac Mortgage Holdings Inc., a Newport Beach, Calif., real-estate investment trust that earned $270 million last year, saw repurchases triple between the first and second quarters of this year, rising to about $100 million. Impac said its repurchases peaked in the second quarter.

When loans go bad, both the original lender and the current owner have an incentive to resolve the issue quietly: Lenders need to be able to sell their loans, and investment banks need loans to bundle together and sell as securities. In some cases, however, disputes are winding up in court.

In a lawsuit in U.S. District Court in Dallas, Bear Stearns's EMC Mortgage Corp. unit is suing MortgageIT Holdings Inc., New York, in an attempt to force it to buy back at least 587 loans totaling $70 million. The lawsuit alleges MortgageIT failed to repurchase defaulted loans, as required by sales contracts. MortgageIT, which is being acquired by Deutsche Bank AG, denies the allegations in court papers and vowed in a securities filing that it will "vigorously defend" itself. Representatives for Bear Stearns and MortgageIT declined to comment.

EMC was among 11 lenders that unsuccessfully sought more than $20 million in loan repurchases from a Belleville, N.J., lender, D&M Financial Corp., which is in bankruptcy-court proceedings. A lawsuit filed by EMC in federal court in Brooklyn accused D&M of a wide-ranging scheme involving "vastly inflated" appraisals and altered or forged down-payment checks.

Saul Berkman, an attorney for D&M, said its executives denied the fraud allegations. He added the company has little or no assets left to fund repurchases.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06282/728649-28.stm; October 10, 2006 5:15 AM
Anonymous said...: I think housing prices are not as far out of trend as many believe. In CA for example if you look at income growth we may have bottomed out already. To see my analysis about Sacramento this blog

http://www.drbrightside.blogspot.com/; October 10, 2006 5:36 AM
Anonymous said...: "In CA for example if you look at income growth we may have bottomed out already. "

Income growth in California has been stagnent for some time. Many jobs have moved out of state or offshore.

Where do you pull these numbers from, your posterior orifice? Aggregate income growth rates tell you nothing about DISTRIBUTION! Take your pie-in-the-sky spam crap elsewhere.; October 10, 2006 6:30 AM
Anonymous said...: Keith,

I hate to say it, but Ben has been beeting you lately when it comes to housing burst articles. What's up?; October 10, 2006 6:31 AM
Anonymous said...: "This web page may maybe gain awards if you ask me. It's just honestly ready to use as well as enlightening."

This has nothing to do with this blog. Keep your filthy spam out!!; October 10, 2006 6:47 AM
Anonymous said...: more misinformation about methods to pay the strawmans debts, banks that insure lives above the amount of debt owed, or the profits of war, to blow it, and them all to peices, from your friendly new world order, banker, selling, overpriced real estate, to the sheeple, or how to raise wilderness farm, land values, did you say townhouse?; October 10, 2006 11:43 AM
Anonymous said...: did i hear panic bubble; October 10, 2006 11:46 AM
Paul E. Math said...: Check this out. You have to read all the way to the bottom. Edmond S. Phelps, Columbia Econ Prof, Nobel prize in economics laureate, renter. Smart people know the limits of their wealth and income and don't overextend themselves chasing the latest mania.

http://tinyurl.com/kq4dw; October 10, 2006 1:12 PM
Anonymous said...: Why are so many people still in denial? I talked to a guy the other day hw was bragging that his huse was worth $800k. I asked him how he knew this, and he said because someone sold a house like his for that in '05. I pointed out to him that his property had dropped by at least 15%, because of an open house I went to close to his. The seller was in a nicer house and the price was marked down by 15% with no takers.
I could see the air sucked out of him. It was like a deer frozen in the headlights.; October 10, 2006 4:31 PM
Anonymous said...: Housing boom due to global intergration says Greenspan
By Krishna Guha in Washington

Published: October 9 2006 20:18 | Last updated: October 9 2006 20:18

The great boom in US house prices that abruptly petered out in recent months was caused by increased global integration, not loose monetary policy, Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, has claimed.

“I don’t think that the boom came from a 1 per cent Fed funds rate or from the Fed’s easing. It came from the collapse of the Berlin Wall,” Mr Greenspan told a private audience in Canada on Friday.

I just puked. This man is clearly suffering from delusions of grandeur.; October 10, 2006 5:02 PM
Anonymous said...: Market stats for DC area. good for a laugh,better if you know the area
http://www.mris.com/reports/stats/; October 10, 2006 10:45 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith, you drug dealer.

First you get us hooked on your blog, then you withhold our fix by failing to provide our daily dose.

Even Ben's Boring Blog beats you on that, Bub.; October 11, 2006 1:57 AM
Anonymous said...: This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.; October 11, 2006 2:45 AM
Roccman said...: A must see.

50 minute video on oil and the economy.

http://tinyurl.com/hkjrc; October 11, 2006 4:22 AM
Roccman said...: Now back to our regularly programed schedule...

More have nots - YOU!!

http://www.fromthew ilderness. com/members/ 101006_war_ you2.shtml

[From provocateurs at protests to the hi-tech surveillance of communication, personal movements, purchases and money flows, “The War On You” was declared decades ago, and the stakes are being raised with every passing day.

As one of the founding members of NY911Truth.org (though no longer affiliated with the organization) , I am familiar with the various forms of agents that can be placed into an activist circle. Some are there to gather information, some to disrupt, while others are there to make the wrong suggestion at the right time. It can be hard to discern between people of this ilk and those who are just mentally disturbed. There is a magnetism that draws such individuals to activist movements.

But where “The War On You” becomes hazy is in the hi-tech arena. Phone calls, emails, credit card purchases, bank transactions and beyond are all subject to being monitored, intercepted and/or thwarted. It is difficult, if not impossible, to determine where the fingerprints of PROMIS software will be next or already have been. – MK]

THE WAR ON YOU:
U.S. GOVERNMENT TARGETING OF AMERCIAN DISSIDENTS - Part II

By Carolyn Baker, Ph.D.; October 11, 2006 3:55 PM
Anonymous said...: This web page may maybe gain awards if you ask me. It's just honestly ready to use as well as enlightening. - heart burn; October 11, 2006 4:52 PM
Anonymous said...: 'How the heck do you pay for it?'
Mixed-income housing a challenge

Does the rest of the country have this "mixed-income" housing concepts? I live in Chicago and the administartion is knocking down the high rise housing projects and moving those people to scattered, mixed-income locations.

Here is how it works: at the location they build multiple three-flat units. They are big, and look nice. They would be condos anywhere else in the city. Of the three units, one is "market rate", which means the person that buys it pays full boat. Another unit is "assisted living" meaning they bought the unit but at a lower price than the "market rate". The final unit is the same as if you lived int he project, they lease it for a small fee.

There are new forsale signs up claiming starting at $303,000, which in my experience means no cabinets, counter tops, window treatments, and no garage, just one open spot in the back.

Passing thru, I spoted an young, upstanding black man, enjoying his hip-hop culture hanging on the stoop of one such unit with a few of his friends. I asked him if he lived there, to wit he replied, yes. I asked him how much he had bought it for. He told me that he did not in fact burchase the unit, but was leasing it. How much was the lease? "$100."

I went home and busted out the mortgage calculator and found out if I would buy the unit at the lowest "market rate" then my mortgage (@7%) would be $2,000. PMI might run another $200. And the City taxes new construction at 1.6% for the SALES PRICE. So the taxes alone would be $400.

So for the little sum of $2,600.00 a year, I can live in the same three flat as a project dwellers that only pay $100 a month! The TAXES alone is 4x how much they pay!

I predict the "mixed-income" experiment will end soon.; October 11, 2006 5:04 PM
Anonymous said...: Let's not forget that Paul Volcker made the most difficult and controversial choices by pushing up short term rates to combat inflation in the late 70's. This set the stage for one of the most prosperous periods in American history.
+++++++++++
Yep, it scares me to death that the Feds, at the behest of the Bush Administration, NOW think they can reject Volcker's example and pursue hyperinflation by injecting large hidden amounts of money into the economy to keep the international Ponzi scheme afloat. The fools mistakenly believe they will NOT have to suffer the consequences....; October 11, 2006 6:05 PM
Anonymous said...: Dobbs: Middle class needs to fight back now

By Lou Dobbs
CNN

Editor's note: Lou Dobbs' commentary appears every Wednesday on CNN.com

NEW YORK (CNN) -- I don't know about you, but I can't take seriously anyone who takes either the Republican Party or Democratic Party seriously -- in part because neither party takes you and me seriously; in part because both are bought and paid for by corporate America and special interests. And neither party gives a damn about the middle class.

Our country's middle class is not just collateral damage in what has become all-out class warfare. Political, business and academic elites are waging an outright war on working men and women and their families, and there is no chance the American middle class will survive this assault if the dominant forces unleashed over the past five years continue unchecked.

They've accomplished this through large campaign contributions, armies of lobbyists that have swamped Washington, and control of political and economic think tanks and media. Lobbyists, in fact, are the arms dealers in the war on the middle class, brokering money, influence and information between their clients our elected officials.

Yet in my entire career, I've literally never heard anyone in Congress argue that lobbyists are bad for America. In 1968 there were only 63 lobbyists in Washington. Today, there are more than 34,000, and lobbyists now outnumber our elected representatives and their staffs by a 2-to-1 margin.

According to the nonpartisan Center for Public Integrity, from 1998 through 2004, lobbyists spent nearly $12 billion to not only influence legislation, but in many cases to write the language of the laws and regulations.

Individual firms, corporations and national organizations spent a record $2.14 billion on lobbying members of Congress and 220 other federal agencies in 2004, according to PoliticalMoneyLine. That's nearly $6 million a day spent to influence our leaders. We really do have the best government money can buy.

But as I discuss in my new book, "War on the Middle Class," what if we all resolved that we would not permit either the Republicans or Democrats to waste their time and ours with wedge issues? Both parties love to excite their bases by focusing on wedge issues like gay marriage, the pledge of allegiance, school prayer, judicial appointments, gun control, stem cell research and welfare reform.

Each of these wedge issues is important in varying degrees to large numbers of us, but none of them rises to the level of urgency or the requirement of immediate change in public policy.

These issues are raised by both political parties to distract and divert public attention from the profound issues -- like educating our youth, economic inequality and the war against radical Islamic terrorists -- that affect our daily lives and the American way of life. Imagine the consternation in Washington if both parties had to contend with a national electorate whose political affiliation had dramatically changed within a matter of weeks or months.

In both Republican and Democratic administrations, Congress has passed and sustained billions of dollars in royalty payments and subsidies to big oil companies; pushed through a corporate-written, consumer-crippling bankruptcy law; embraced the death of the estate tax; approved every free trade deal brought to a vote; and supported illegal immigration for the sake of cheap labor.

The party strategists and savants are telling us that fewer Americans will turn out to the polls than ever before, disgusted by a disgraced former congressman. But we don't have to wait for the midterm elections to begin to engage in our new political life.

There's something all of us could do that would have an immediate impact and send a powerful message to both corporation-dominated political parties and to our elected officials in Washington. Our so-called representatives in both parties have been working against the interests of the middle class for so long that they take our votes for granted, or they take advantage of the fact that a sizable number of us don't vote at all.

So what if a majority of us decided once and for all to walk into our town and city halls all over the country and change our party affiliation from Republican or Democrat to independent? What if that sizable number of us who don't vote at all decided to register as independents? For the first time in decades, working middle-class Americans might just get the attention of our elected officials in Washington.

Our middle class has suffered in silence for far too long, and it cannot afford to suffer or be silent much longer. Hardworking Americans have not spoken out about their increasingly marginalized role in this society, and as a consequence they've all but lost their voice.

Without that strong, clear and vibrant voice, all the major decisions about America and our future will be made by the elites of government, big business and the dominant special interests. Those elites treasure your silence, as it enables them to claim America's future for their own.

I sincerely hope that we will find the resolve to face these challenges to our way of life, and we do so soon. George Bernard Shaw said, "It is dangerous to be sincere unless you are also stupid."

I'm stupid enough to be absolutely sincere in the hope that middle-class America will awake soon and take action.; October 11, 2006 6:28 PM
Anonymous said...: Richard, you pile of dog poo, Do you have anything to add to the housing bubble? sick-o; October 12, 2006 1:27 AM
Anonymous said...: There are no places in California that you can buy cheap in this bubble. I have lived in relatively small country towns (Redding and Chico) to big cities (LA) and it's all over-inflated. People in the larger cities have moved into the smaller towns and purchased second homes as an investment in their vicinity (whatevery small towns are around them) and bid up prices. They are so naive. Redding and all those towns up in true northern California have virtually no jobs. They will find out soon that large cities are definately nothing close to being small towns. Californians did the same thing with Las Vegas and Arizona...bought homes as investment properties. Big city dwellers just don't understand small towns. I have simpathy for those that bought their first home in the last 4-5 years, but absolutely no simpathy for those that bought a second looking to make a quick buck.; October 12, 2006 2:51 AM
Anonymous said...: Los Angeles Update: (sorry for typos and spelling..on Pocket PC at airport)

1. Latest Realtor Dirty Trick - The In Escrow/Sales Pending Sign. Lots and Lots of properties which are totally over priced and in no way getting the needed appraised value for the proper LTV unless the buyer is putting 50 to 60% down now have escrow signs on them as if there has been no turn in the market, as if we are now back in early 2005. This trick is to get a calls and to make one make a backup offer which gets a return phone call sometimes the same day to be told that the primary offer has back out (seen this tested 12 times in the last 5 days).

2. NOTHING IS SELLING - Know lots and lots of Bankers and Brokers - pretty mich every application is being 1. Turned down after the appriasal. or 2. Asking for more money from the buyer as a down payment.

3. Sellers are pulling their homes off and waiting 2 weeks to switch brokers and place back on market because someone is saying that Greenspan said it has hit the bottom.

Will try to keep this up with updates every 2 days (M/W/F). Do not be fooled by people saying Los Angeles is not going to get hit bad...It is, people are selling their SH!T to make their house payments...

~BD; October 12, 2006 6:46 AM
Anonymous said...: Are there any recent investors who have signed a contract for a new house which is under construction and will come online soon.

In your decision making process did you anticipated this slow down?

What are your current hope?

Is your hope realistic based on current conditions?

For example, will you make a profit if you are able to sell the day your house is completed and the key is handed over to you?

Based on your mortgage payments what is your projected break even point?

In other words how many months can you sit on your investment home until your mortgage eats into your profit?; October 12, 2006 7:18 AM
Anonymous said...: Naples, FL:

Realtors Fume Over Property Auction; October 12, 2006 1:22 PM
Anonymous said...: Scalpers take a hit!

At last night’s Who concert in Seattle, the seats did not sell out.

During the last half-hour before the concert started, desperate flippers...er...ticket scalpers were selling their tickets for less than what they had paid for them.

Why could such a fantastic concert band not be able to sell out a concert hall? Could it be that many of their fans are being squeezed by the rising costs of everything?

Or is their discretionary spending being constrained by their ARM’s adjusting up?

-Mammoth; October 12, 2006 3:44 PM
Anonymous said...: This Speaks for Itself Fellow Blogger Addicts.

Jury awards $11.3M over defamatory Internet posts

A Florida woman has been awarded $11.3 million in a defamation lawsuit against a Louisiana woman who posted messages on the Internet accusing her of being a "crook," a "con artist" and a "fraud."

Legal analysts say the Sept. 19 award by a jury in Broward County, Fla. — first reported Friday by the Daily Business Review — represents the largest such judgment over postings on an Internet blog or message board. Lyrissa Lidsky, a University of Florida law professor who specializes in free-speech issues, calls the award "astonishing."

url:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2006-10-10
-internet-defamation-case_x.htm; October 12, 2006 3:54 PM
Anonymous said...: A quiet hurricane season in South Florida will apparently be enough for the housing market to bounce back in no time at all:

Existing home sales could start bouncing back in 6 months in S. Florida; October 12, 2006 4:39 PM
Anonymous said...: Kieth:

Here is a link to the Washingtion Post Real Estate forum- it's kind of hard to find. Yeah, you have to register, but it would be great if you and your minions could set these people straight.

http://forums.washingtonpost.com/wprealestate/messages/?start=Start+Reading+%3E%3E; October 12, 2006 4:43 PM
Anonymous said...: I predict the "mixed-income" experiment will end soon.

Hey and don't forget the payout due to theft, vandalism and such. probably another 2-5K a year.; October 12, 2006 4:48 PM
Anonymous said...: The psychology of the market has drastically changed. It once was where people would buy at lofty prices because they expected to make instant equity. Now they are thinking- how much will I lose.
Buyers are scared! Owners are scared! Denial is turning into depression as they count their loses.; October 12, 2006 4:51 PM
Anonymous said...: At last night’s Who concert in Seattle, the seats did not sell out....Could it be that many of their fans are being squeezed by the rising costs of everything?
+++++++++++++++++

I live in Seattle and from my observations of local stores and restaurants, I believe that sales are down (some places are still OK but many are emptier than usual). On top of this, our Sunday paper "Job Market" section is really thin. I'm guessing that most jobs available pay so little that nobody bothers to advertise them in the newspaper....; October 12, 2006 4:57 PM
Anonymous said...: Richard,
What if everyone posted the same 2000 word article at the end of EVERY single thread board?; October 12, 2006 5:40 PM
Anonymous said...: What if every on posted at ANONS??

yeah yeah that's the ticket!!; October 12, 2006 6:54 PM
Anonymous said...: Kieth:

Check out the size of this headline

http://money.cnn.com/index.html?cnn=yes

it's glorius.; October 12, 2006 7:55 PM
Anonymous said...: Kieth:

Check out the size of this headline

http://money.cnn.com/index.html?cnn=yes
++++++++++++++

Another perspective:

DON'T GET EXCITED; IT'S JUST THE DOW

By: Allan Sloan, Newsweek

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15173073/site/newsweek/

Oct. 16, 2006 issue - Have you recovered yet from celebrating the Dow's reaching record highs last week? Hope you didn't go too wild. .... In my customary role as party pooper, I'll let you in on a little secret: even though the Dow has broken the high that it set on Jan. 14, 2000, the market is nowhere near its all-time high. That's because the 30-stock Dow Jones industrial average isn't the same thing as the U.S. stock market. Not even close....The real market indicators are still way below their highs. One of them, Standard & Poor's 500 Index—which includes 470 more stocks than the Dow does—ended the week 12 percent below its peak, reached on March 24, 2000. The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000, which includes all U.S. stocks and peaked the same day as the S&P, was down 9 percent.; October 12, 2006 9:27 PM
Anonymous said...: they all fell for the ponzi pyramid, chain letter scheme called fractional reserve banking and inflation of housing prices, and therefore so must everybody else, and the sooner the screw job, the easier it will be!!; October 12, 2006 10:06 PM
Anonymous said...: Here's an example of an out-of-touch home for sale. Sure it's a new craftsman house (a build kit from Oregon, so I hear) but it's in a crappy neighborhood of Pasadena, CA... There are a ton of better houses (cheaper, much better schools, larger lot) in South Pasadena and Pasadena, CA... Originally it was supposed to go on sale for about 800K... I guess the seller is getting a little more greedy??

Check MLS #: 22079579
2001 SANTA ROSA, Pasadena, CA 91104; October 12, 2006 10:40 PM
Anonymous said...: here's the picture of the $1.1 million offer:

http://www.ziprealty.com/images_mls/PFAR/22/07/95/22079579.jpg; October 12, 2006 10:43 PM
Anonymous said...: There is a still a massive development boom going on in the Mexican Baja selling Vacation homes to Americans at 150K-300K prives points.

Who is buying these homes if there is such a crash going on?; October 13, 2006 8:36 AM
Roccman said...: Ottawa — The U.S. government needs to intervene
massively in domestic energy
markets to reduce the country's dangerous
dependence on unstable foreign
suppliers of crude oil, a high-powered panel says
in a new report prepared
for the influential Council on Foreign Relations.

The task force, co-chaired by former energy
secretary James Schlesinger and
former CIA director John Deutsch, warns that some
oil-producing countries
are using their growing wealth and power to the
detriment of U.S. interests,
while consuming countries like China and India
are competing for
increasingly scarce resources.

The CFR report argues the U.S. should encourage
increases in oil supply from
outside the volatile Persian Gulf region, though
offers no suggestions as to
how that might be done. It pointed to the
proposed development of the
Canadian oil sands, saying a rapid expansion of
that supply “could help
limit world oil price increases.”

But the authors slam American political leaders,
saying politicians from
both parties mislead the public by suggesting
that the country can achieve
both energy independence and lower prices for
gasoline and heating oil. “The
central task for the next two decades must be to
manage the consequences of
its dependence on oil, not to pretend the United
States can eliminate it,”
the report concluded.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20061012.wsecurity1012/BNStory/Business/home; October 13, 2006 1:08 PM
Anonymous said...: politicians .... mislead the public

Richard,

I am shocked! The Gov. would never keep the public in the dark without a good reason. Oh, I know, they want it ALL!

Puts a new meaning to the word 'Black Op.".

InfidelWoman; October 13, 2006 2:00 PM
Roccman said...: "Puts a new meaning to the word 'Black Op."."

Yes - very black indeed. This country is in for a very BIG suprise within 5 years - perhaps under 2.; October 13, 2006 2:10 PM
Anonymous said...: asshat of the year award goes to this guy:

http://tinyurl.com/yccxdq

his orignal asking price on ziprealty was $ 899,000.

he cut the price to $ 799,000.; October 13, 2006 6:08 PM
Roccman said...: "Palestinians should not have to pay the price of the Holocaust," she said.
http://www.theage. com.au/news/ world/academic- to-quit-post- in-anger- over-israel/ 2006/10/10/ 1160246132031. html

Academic to quit post in anger over Israel

Penelope Debelle, Adelaide
October 11, 2006

PROMINENT left-wing Israeli academic and author Tanya Reinhart plans to quit as emeritus professor at Tel Aviv University in protest against her Government's handling of the Palestinian issue.

Professor Reinhart, who will give a public lecture at the University of Melbourne tomorrow night, said Israel's walling of the large and prosperous West Bank was cutting off the Palestinian people from their lands and each other.; October 13, 2006 6:24 PM
Anonymous said...: I'd sure enough propose this internet page to my fellows & family . It is very valuable to me besides I'm certain it'll be advantageous to them too. - stop snoring; October 13, 2006 6:26 PM
Anonymous said...: hope i live long enough to see 500,000,000 chinese and hindis?go for holiday by auto, to london, istanbul,or moscow, better yet, get a peice of the fuel take, as i may be paying for it now, maybe thats the break, AFRICA NEEDED!; October 13, 2006 7:07 PM
Roccman said...: From today's Progress Report:

http://www.american progressaction. org/site/ apps/nl/content2 .asp?c=klLWJcP7H&b=1331575&ct=3039517

Losing the Faith

"More than five years after President Bush created the Office of Faith-Based Initiatives, " David Kuo, the former special assistant to President Bush on faith-based issues, is "going public with an insider's tell-all account that portrays an office used almost exclusively to win political points."; October 13, 2006 8:48 PM
Anonymous said...: Imagine Earth without people

12 October 2006
Exclusive from New Scientist Print Edition.
Bob Holmes
http://tinyurl. com/uwqog

Humans are undoubtedly the most dominant species the Earth has ever
known. In just a few thousand years we have swallowed up more than a
third of the planet's land for our cities, farmland and pastures. By
some estimates, we now commandeer 40 per cent of all its
productivity. And we're leaving quite a mess behind: ploughed-up
prairies, razed forests, drained aquifers, nuclear waste, chemical
pollution, invasive species, mass extinctions and now the looming
spectre of climate change. If they could, the other species we share
Earth with would surely vote us off the planet.; October 13, 2006 11:21 PM
Anonymous said...: Imagine Earth without people

12 October 2006
Exclusive from New Scientist Print Edition.
Bob Holmes
http://tinyurl. com/uwqog

Humans are undoubtedly the most dominant species the Earth has ever
known. In just a few thousand years we have swallowed up more than a
third of the planet's land for our cities, farmland and pastures. By
some estimates, we now commandeer 40 per cent of all its
productivity. And we're leaving quite a mess behind: ploughed-up
prairies, razed forests, drained aquifers, nuclear waste, chemical
pollution, invasive species, mass extinctions and now the looming
spectre of climate change. If they could, the other species we share
Earth with would surely vote us off the planet.; October 13, 2006 11:22 PM
Anonymous said...: After a 3 month unnerving(unnerving for me because I'm short 3 home builders) period over which the home builder stocks stabilised and even rose modestly, today Friday 13th they dropped significantly.
KBH -5.9%, CTX -5.5%, PHM -4.4% BZH -4.3% TOL -4%. A couple I've never heard of went up (OHB +4.6%, DHOM +3.8%). The drop is attributed to the downbeat preannouncement from Centex this morning. But where were the investors on Tue. night when KBH announced a delay in filing, said that this could cause a credit default, revised the quarter projections downwards AND are revising last two quarter filings downwards. After that announcement the stock went UP on Wed and Thur. I've been short KBH, TOL and CTX since November but I almost closed out the positions - thinking - whatever the game the big guys are playing, I'd better pack my tent and go home with my reasonable winnings.. But I didn't - I mustn't hate a stock but I really really want to follow my KBH short all the way down to bankruptcy. It will be my first 100% win if it does. A good way to pop my shorting cherry.; October 14, 2006 5:29 AM
Anonymous said...: U.S. agents question teen
Girl ran anti-Bush page on MySpace
By Laurel Rosenhall and Ryan Lillis - Bee Staff Writers
Published 12:00 am PDT Friday, October 13, 2006
Story appeared in MAIN NEWS section, Page A1

The latest Sacramento resident to be questioned by federal agents in possible threats against President Bush is a 14-year-old girl with a heart on her backpack and braces on her teeth, a freckle-nosed adolescent who is passionate about liberal politics and cute movie stars.
Her name is Julia Wilson, and she learned a vivid civics lesson Wednesday when two Secret Service agents pulled her out of biology class at McClatchy High School to ask about comments and images she posted on MySpace.
Beneath the words "Kill Bush," Julia posted a cartoonish photo-collage of a knife stabbing the hand of the president. It was one of a few images Julia said she used to decorate an anti-Bush Web page she moderated on MySpace, the social networking Web site that is hugely popular among teenagers.; October 14, 2006 2:07 PM
Anonymous said...: Home builder puts down roots
Toll Brothers moves into expanded
regional headquarters

Orlando Florida Local News paper

Jerry W. Jackson | Orlando Sentinel Staff Writer
Posted October 14, 2006
TOLL BROTHERS
Headquarters: Horsham, Pa.

12-month revenue: $6.4 billion

12-month profit: $823.7 million

Employees: 5,581 in 21 states

Central Florida employees: 120

Central Florida division president: Bill Morrisey

Central Florida headquarters: 2966 Commerce Park Dr., south Orlando

Market focus: luxury single-family detached and attached homes for move-up, empty-nester, active-adult and second-home buyers

Toll Brothers is settling into Central Florida and preparing to compete for the long haul.

The luxury home builder is a relative newcomer to the hotly competitive Orlando-area market, entering the region in mid-2005, when it acquired the lots and local operations of Landstar Homes, one of the region's top 10 builders.

This week, Toll Brothers completed its move into an expanded headquarters in south Orlando at the Southridge Commerce Park. The 35,000-square-foot facility includes a design studio, administrative offices and space for employees from related operations, including Toll Brothers Architecture and Toll Brothers Title Co.; October 14, 2006 4:19 PM
Anonymous said...: Motlry Fool's News Letter

Can you retire? For 40 year old HPers

In order to make your nest egg last, you should conservatively plan to withdraw about 4% of it per year in retirement. So 4% of $349,000 is almost $14,000. That's about $1,200 a month. Will that be enough? According to an inflation calculator I used, what cost a buck 30 years ago will cost about $3.75 today. Assuming the same rate going forward, your $14,000 in 2036 will buy you what you can get for $4,700 today. So that $1,200 a month will feel more like $400. Startling, isn't it?

Another way to look at it is to realize that the 4% withdrawal rate should include inflation-indexed increases, so if you're taking out $14,000 in the first year of retirement (and inflation that year is 3%), the next withdrawal will be 1.03 times $14,000, or $14,420. Can you imagine how quickly your money will go? (Note: You can withdraw more each year. If you're taking out 5% annually over 30 years, you have roughly a three-in-four chance of not running out of money, but that's far from a sure thing.)

If you want to live off the current equivalent of $50,000 per year in 30 years, you can estimate that you'll have to withdraw $150,000 annually. If that's 4% of your nest egg, then that nest egg will need to be $3.75 million! Still startled?; October 14, 2006 5:10 PM
Anonymous said...: This web page may maybe gain awards if you ask me. It's just honestly ready to use as well as enlightening. - bonsai trees; October 14, 2006 6:31 PM
Anonymous said...: Those realtors at the Seattle Post Intelligencer Blog are at it again.

Today they're posting an interesting solution to the high cost of housing...living in steel crates.

Susan Ryan is too good for it though:

Posted by Susan Ryan at 10/14/06 9:28 a.m.

This reminds me of one of my favorite childhood books, The Boxcar Children.

I still love the ideal of repurposing, rather than throwing usable things away. However, living in a metal box has lost the romatic appeal of my childhood.; October 14, 2006 7:49 PM
Roccman said...: http://www.fpif. org/fpiftxt/ 3596

Beware Empires in Decline

Michael T. Klare | October 13, 2006

The common wisdom circulating in Washington these days is that the United States is too bogged down in Iraq to consider risky military action against Iran or—God forbid—North Korea. Policy analysts describe the U.S. military as “over-burdened” or “stretched to the limit.” The presumption is that the Pentagon is telling President Bush that it can't really undertake another major military contingency.; October 14, 2006 8:09 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith-
I have a couple ideas for a topic.
1. What's happening in your hood? Give details about what real estate is doing where you live. How much yard sign polution is there? Even include international locations!

2. Is it time to move off shore. Go to a tropical location and sit by the tropical beach drinking "mojidos", while the maid cleans the house. Cash in now on your over price tract house and live like a "Don".; October 14, 2006 8:21 PM
foxwoodlief said...: Just saw on Craigslist a condo conversion near downtown San Diego where they want to sell the last 11 units and have reduced the price $50,000 to $279,00 for 3 bdrm/2bath units, updated with granite counters. I never thought I'd see SD condos selling for less than Phoenix, and for THREE bedrooms!; October 14, 2006 9:10 PM
Roccman said...: http://www.counterp unch.org/ vanbergen1014200 6.html

Bush's Military Commissions Act and the Future of America
By JENNIFER VAN BERGEN
October 14-15, 2006

Before Congress recessed, it passed, amid much criticism, the Military
Commissions Act (MCA). The Act has consequences for citizens and
non-citizens alike. Among it's worst features, it authorizes the
President to detain, without charges, anyone whom he deems an unlawful
enemy combatant. This includes U.S. citizens. It eliminates habeas
corpus review for aliens. It also makes providing "material support"
to terrorists punishable by military commission. And, once again, the
military commissions procedures allow for coerced testimony, the use
of "sanitized classified information" (where the source is not
disclosed), and trial for offenses not historically subject to trial
by military commissions. (Terrorism is not historically a military
offense; it's a crime.) Finally, by amending the War Crimes Act, it
allows the president to authorize interrogation techniques that may
nonetheless violate the Geneva Conventions and provides future and
retroactive immunity for those who engage in or authorize those acts.

Given the troubling new broad powers Congress has given the President,
what will happen now?; October 14, 2006 10:27 PM
Anonymous said...: "Keith-
I have a couple ideas for a topic.
1. What's happening in your hood? Give details about what real estate is doing where you live. How much yard sign polution is there? Even include international locations!"

hmm, *by coincidence*, that happens to be today's topic on the patrick.net blog.; October 15, 2006 12:21 AM
Anonymous said...: The inventory of unsold homes on realtor.com seems to be steady for the past month. It seems prices have more than doubled in five years. Five years ago there were condos under $100,000; some as low as $50,000. Those are gone. Seven years ago there were townhouses for $99,000 dollars advertised as cheaper than renting. Those days are gone. Now it is definately cheaper to rent. They keep trying to raise the rents, then the tenants move out. Some left the area all together and headed for the hills with one hour + long commutes.

Housing construction companies are deep in debt watching a lot of sales dissapear. With interest rates higher, it is harder to carry the debt load. I think alot of the job creation must have been part time or low pay type jobs without health insurance. Not the type that can afford $700,000 townhouses. Vegas was particularly hard hit. It seems like their greed and gambling fever got them in trouble. The new bankruptcy laws are tougher. One might be asked to carry those payments a long time.; October 15, 2006 4:19 AM
Roccman said...: See New York Times article 'Restraints Fray as Nuclear Age Grows
Globally' pasted below my signature.

President Ahmedinejad of Iran made the following suggestion to the USA:

"Before stopping enrichment by others, why don't you stop building the
next generation of nuclear weapons?" he asked his American hosts.
Then, smiling, he suggested that the United States just buy its
nuclear fuel from Iran's new facilities. He would sell it to
Washington, he said, "with a 50 percent discount."

That would be at least as sensible as the present situation, with the
maximum nuclear arms in the control of the only nation in the world
that was irresponsible enough to use nuclear weapons against civilians
- a nation now ruled by a war criminal.; October 15, 2006 4:25 AM
Anonymous said...: Losing the Faith

"More than five years after President Bush created the Office of Faith-Based Initiatives, " David Kuo, the former special assistant to President Bush on faith-based issues, is "going public with an insider's tell-all account that portrays an office used almost exclusively to win political points."
++++++++++

I'm really looking forward to reading this book. Also I hope it causees a significant reaction among those Bush followers who are stupid enough to believe that just because Dubya calls himself a Christian that he really is....; October 15, 2006 5:54 AM
Anonymous said...: Given the troubling new broad powers Congress has given the President, what will happen now?
++++++++++++
What do you think? Have you ever heard of the word "dictatorship"? How about the term "fascism"?; October 15, 2006 5:57 AM
Anonymous said...: If you want to live off the current equivalent of $50,000 per year in 30 years, you can estimate that you'll have to withdraw $150,000 annually. If that's 4% of your nest egg, then that nest egg will need to be $3.75 million! Still startled?
++++++++++++++
Hmm....So it looks like 95% of the population will NEVER be able to retire....; October 15, 2006 6:02 AM
Anonymous said...: FTC Releases New Facts for Consumers Publication on Selecting a Real Estate Professional

http://www.ftc.gov/bc/realestate/pubs/zrea01.pdf; October 15, 2006 11:50 AM
Roccman said...: A LAST WILD RIDE ON THE TITANIC: BUSH LEADING THE SHIP TO DESTRUCTION

Yesterday's report in the Washington Post that over 650,000 Iraqis have died as a result of the US-led invasion is just the latest bit of bad news to hit the Bush administration. In fact, the buzzards have been circling the White House for some time now and they won't be leaving anytime soon.

The "peer-reviewed" report from the John Hopkins School of Public Health followed all the standard procedures for producing a thoroughly credible survey. After interviewing nearly 2,000 Iraqi residents, checking death certificates and records at the morgue, they compiled their data and made their calculations. "The same survey methods were used to measure mortality during conflicts in the Congo, Kosovo, Sudan and other regions."

The Bush administration has never challenged the organization' s findings before. In fact, they used the group's reckoning on Sudan to accuse the Sudanese government of "genocide". If that's true, then Iraq must be "triple-genocide" ; an entirely new nomenclature for the premeditated obliteration of the world's oldest civilization. (...)

Amazingly, the John Hopkins survey was quickly followed by two more bombshells which helped to paint an even bleaker picture of the ongoing war in Iraq. At a Pentagon press conference, Army chief of staff, General Peter Schoomaker, stated that "the U.S. Army has plans to keep the current level of soldiers in Iraq through 2010." Schoomaker's comments not only quashed hopes for an early withdrawal, but left many wondering how the already over-stretched military plans to meet its obligations in the years ahead. As critics have noted, the present course is "unsustainable" .

Just hour's after Schoomaker has made his remarks, the Head of Allied forces in Iraq, Gen. George W. Casey said, "The violence in Baghdad had reached its highest levels in recent weeks, despite the assignment of thousands of more American and Iraqi troops to the capital."

So, (to summarize) in one 24-hour period, we found out that we've killed 2.5% of the entire Iraqi population, that we will maintain the same troop levels for the next 4 years (at minimum) and that our attempts to establish security have only increased the amount of violence.

That's bad. That's real bad. (...)

America is presently in a long, downward spiral. It could be years before we hit rock bottom. Our military is grinding down, our alliances are increasingly frayed and tenuous, and public opinion has begun to wane. The tectonic-plates of political good-fortune have begun to shift. There won't be any more "good news" coming from Iraq.

Still, in the face of mounting pressure and widespread public unease, Bush has ordered a carrier group to the Gulf; steaming ahead for an apocalyptic confrontation with Iran. When the time is right, he'll blow the whistle and the bombs will start pelting down like a Texas hailstorm.

It's a death-wish.

Bush is chugging inexorably towards Tehran and we're all being swept along in his wake. It's like one last wild ride on the Titanic before we hit the ice in the open seas and slip slowly beneath the waves.

Glub, glub!; October 15, 2006 1:38 PM
Anonymous said...: G*d D**m! TSHTF scenario seeming less and less like idle speculation by the day. Getting that feeling of no good alternatives and not knowing what to do about it (at the personal level).

Telling myself to remember the R.E.M. song: "It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine". A lot of bad, rotten stuff will be going by the wayside, too.

p.s. - easy solution for that "unsustainable" military adventure problem: draft.; October 15, 2006 2:36 PM
Roccman said...: Of course I do not believe this is a voluntary cut, but here's the spun version of Peak Oil:

http://www.bloomber g.com/index. html?Intro= intro

OPEC to Meet Oct. 19 in Qatar to Discuss Output Cut (Update3)

By Andrew Critchlow

Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries, producer of 40 percent of the world's oil, will hold an
emergency meeting Oct. 19 to discuss a 1 million barrel-a-day output
cut, an OPEC delegate said.

The group will meet in Doha, Qatar, a United Arab Emirates official who
declined to be identified said in a telephone interview today. OPEC
members were informed of the meeting today by the group's acting
secretary general, Nigeria's Mohammed Barkindo, the U.A.E. official said.

Members will discuss a ``voluntary' ' supply cut aimed at reviving oil
prices that have fallen by a quarter in the last three months. The group
will debate whether to reduce actual production or OPEC's 28 million
barrel-a-day output quota.; October 16, 2006 12:07 AM
Anonymous said...: Realtors struggle with snail-slow sales
Money is there, but consumers waiting to pull buying trigger

A PRICE TO PAY
The tougher market is already taking a toll on some players in the real estate game. With competition among properties tightening, and fast sales no longer a sure thing, the ranks of area real estate agents are beginning to thin.
The California Desert Association of Realtors recently estimated that the number of active agents in the valley - which ballooned to more than 5,000 during the market peak - will likely drop by 15 percent to 20 percent in the coming year.

Experts say the toughening market is testing the true passion of agents for the hard work now involved in clinching deals, and many who see the business as a part-time job or hobby will likely fall by the wayside.

"The agents who stay in local real estate will be those who treat the business as a full-time profession," said Malcolm MacEwen, senior vice president of desert regional operations at Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate.

related

Buyers, sellers having to readjust expectations

Experts weigh in on real estate market's future in valley

Valley sellers and builders offering top-notch incentives to potential buyers

Cooling home market still proving hot

Your Voice
Have something to say about it? Join the conversation in Talk of the Day

Lou Hirsh
The Desert Sun
October 15, 2006

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Are Coachella Valley home buyers and sellers getting psyched out by the local housing market?
Some owners and investors - struggling to sell their properties across many price categories - blame market psychology for the current slowdown.

As an investor, Alan Waters of Palm Desert typically does several remodel/upgrade projects on homes in the valley each year.

He recently had a property for sale in Palm Springs for more than 18 months.

"Even following a substantial price reduction of more than $200,000, bringing the price $100-per-square-foot below the neighborhood average, the property had not sold," said Waters, whose day job as CEO of Wilson Johnson involves commercial rather than residential real estate.

"This indicates to me that price is not the driving determination with buyers in this market," Waters said of his investment experience. "Uncertainty and 'bubble talk' are the issues."

Other observers are inclined to agree that psychological factors are at play.

Lorenzo Lombardelli, owner and president of valley-area Re/Max real estate offices, contends that consumers are waiting for the market to stabilize. For their peace of mind, buyers are looking for the market to establish a set record of "comparable sales" to show that home price appreciation and supplies are holding steady - and won't be fluctuating as dramatically as they have in recent months.

"There are plenty of buyers in the market," Lombardelli said. "But consumers aren't sure when to pull the trigger - they're worried that if they buy now, the prices will go down even further later."

Experts say nostalgia is playing a big role in the current mind-set of many sellers, who have been slow to drop prices and instead are still chasing the quick, big-dollar paydays that local sellers saw in their 2004-2005 heyday.
"Nobody wants to be the first one (on the block) to bring their price down, especially if they think there's going to be a bump-up later in the market demand," said Patrick Veling, president of Brea-based research firm Real Data Strategies.

"This market is being driven totally by psychology."; October 16, 2006 12:52 AM
foxwoodlief said...: America needs to stop being a weenie. As far as N Korea goes, simple. Tell China to either get on board as a member of the world community and stop straddling the fence. Put the RESPONSIBILITY on the problem squarely where the impace will FIRST be felt, ASIA. China can have an arms race with Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia, a nuclear event or war on its border, or crack down as N Korea's only ally. Put the responsibility where it belongs, on China.

ALso, this will be a test of wether China really has abandoned its aggressive stand against the west under Mao. If China doesn't act responsibly then America, Japan, and S Korea should impose a trade embargo on China. I doubt the Europeans will follow as they like to take the French position and act as France did during WWII, appeasement at all cost. Still, what do you think will happen if China looses its major market?

And for America? Think how our trade deficit would drop! We can start investing in manufacturing again here. Also, we can default on all the bonds owed to China. After all, think of all the assets communist countries confiscated in their revolutions, we can do the same.

Imagine the revolution in China now that they've had a taste for capitalism. Want to really unleash change in China? They can choose, revolution in China or the end of thier support of N Korea.; October 16, 2006 12:58 AM
Roccman said...: Our "free wold Media" at work.

A natural disaster of epic proportions and we hear nothing about it.

Drilling for natural gas in Idonesia has caused a mud vent to flow unabated.

Java villages drown in mud lake
http://news. bbc.co.uk/ 2/hi/asia- pacific/5408850. stm; October 16, 2006 1:26 AM
Roccman said...: News Update from Citizens for Legitimate Government
15 October 2006
http://www.legitgov .org/
http://www.legitgov .org/index. html#breaking_ news

Police accuse Israeli president of rape 15 Oct 2006 Israel said on Sunday its police force had acquired evidence suggesting President Moshe Katsav had raped and molested women who worked for him.

Please forward this update to anyone you think might be interested. Those who'd like to be added to the Newsletter list can sign up: http://www.legitgov .org/#subscribe_ clg.
Please write to: signup@legitgov. org for inquiries.

CLG Newsletter editor: Lori Price, General Manager. Copyright © 2006, Citizens For Legitimate Government ® All rights reserved.; October 16, 2006 2:12 AM
Anonymous said...: http://prisonplanet .com/articles/ October2006/ 141006poll. htm

Scientific Poll: 84% Reject Official 9/11 Story

Only 16% now believe official fable according to New York Times/CBS News poll
Truth Movement has the huge majority of opinion
How will the Bush Cabal react?

Steve Watson & Alex Jones / Prisonplanet. com | October 14 2006

A monumental new scientific opinion poll has emerged which declares that only 16% of people in America now believe the official government explanation of the September 11th 2001 terror attacks.

According to the new New York Times/CBS News poll, only 16% of Americans think the government is telling the truth about 9/11 and the intelligence prior to the attacks:

"Do you think members of the Bush Administration are telling the truth, are mostly telling the truth but hiding something, or are they mostly lying?

Telling the truth 16%

Hiding something 53%

Mostly lying 28%

Not sure 3%"

The 84% figure mirrors other recent polls on the same issue. A Canadian Poll put the figure at 85%. A CNN poll had the figure at 89%. Over 80% supported the stance of Charlie Sheen when he went public with his opinions on 9/11 as an inside job.

A recent CNN poll found that the percentage of Americans who blame the Bush administration for the September 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington rose from almost a third to almost half over the past four years. This latest poll shows that that figure has again risen exponentially and now stands at well over three quarters of the population.

It took 35 plus years for the majority of Americans to wake up to the fact that the assassination of JFK was a government operation. It has only take five years for MORE Americans to wake up to the fact that 9/11 was an inside job on behalf of the Neoconservative crime syndicate within the US.

Reference to past polls show that in the last five years there has been an explosion in numbers of those who do not buy the official line.

In 2004 a Zogby Poll showed that just over half of New Yorkers believed there was a cover up.

In May of this year another Zogby poll indicated that around half of ALL Americans did not buy the official story.

The latest poll also shows a massive awakening has occurred recently given that previous estimates indicated that around 34% still believed the official story and around 30% were oblivious altogether.; October 16, 2006 4:09 AM
Anonymous said...: This Barron magazine talked about Federal Spending

Look at the following web page and
type in key word like "Pizza" under search.

http://www.fedspending.org/; October 16, 2006 4:25 AM
Anonymous said...: Still, in the face of mounting pressure and widespread public unease, Bush has ordered a carrier group to the Gulf; steaming ahead for an apocalyptic confrontation with Iran. When the time is right, he'll blow the whistle and the bombs will start pelting down like a Texas hailstorm. It's a death-wish.
+++++++++++++++
IMHO, Bush and his cronies are sick. Unfortunately, America will have to go down the tubes before his right-wing, Bible-thumping followers realize they've been had....; October 16, 2006 4:53 AM
Anonymous said...: my 5 year cd, paid out a total of 20,000 on 100,000, which enabled 1,000,000 in borrowings, on a house now trying to be sold for 10,000,000 which most rent for some profit above carry costs, including mortage and taxes and repair ,insurance and fees like commisions ect and ect, now the rents must rise by a figure times 10, which is non accounted for inflation costs that i, and everyone else must pay for, obviously, saving and banking money,for me to break even, must pay 10 times more, which is not gonna happen, even with bernanke; October 16, 2006 5:48 AM
Anonymous said...: so both the banker, and the borrower think they have 10,000,000 or 20m of perceived wealth, and in the housing and rental market i have 120,000 or perceived poverty, both the banker and the borrowers will get bailouts from the government, in taxes from me, no matter which way the shit flys!?; October 16, 2006 6:14 AM
foxwoodlief said...: Hey, easy on Texas, would you rather have an early Buffalo NY blizzard?

Anyway, after almost a year of looking at this site, which is more rant and rave than fact and debate on home prices, so many questions never seem to get answered. It is like going to church and asking all the hard questions about faith and the bible only to have your questions dismissed and told "BELIEVE."

Moving on. No one has really answered some basic questions asked for the past year. 1) What is the true, average cost to build a house. 2) What has been the true inflation rate since 1972. 3) Why do inflation calculators never seem to be right? I mean, you put in the price you paid for a car in 1982 and today, say a care was bought for $9,000 in 1987, today it should cost only $15,000 by those calculators and yet most cars are over $21,000. So what is the true cost of a home as a result of these false inflation rates? 4) Homes and cars are both better built, have more technology, more high end improvements, which explains part of the reason, but what is the true cost per sq ft to build? My parents paid $15 a sq ft in 1962, inflation calculators say that today would be $97 a sq ft. Instead of their house going from $17,000 to say $114,000 it is $870,000, which is more lkie $900 a sq ft. Here in Texas you can build in most major cities for $100 a sq ft and get a fairly upgraded home. I see in Az some home builders are getting their prices down to $100 a sq ft (but for basic starters) and I heard in Vegas they are now selling new for around $150 a sq ft. So what is the cost in your areas? And inflation adjusted what is the cost?

I also read they expect home prices to rise another 15% in Spain this year. London is heating up again and prices in Britain are set to rise at least 8%. I can only see prices declining if we have a major deflation in the cost of raw and finished materials, but at current costs can a builder only charge $97 a sq ft and still make money?

Don't get me wrong, I believe income inequality is more massive than in 1972 and the middle class is getting squeezed by higher taxes, lower wages, higher living costs and a depreciating dollar, which explains part of the price difference for say a house in Euros or pounds, but this deflation in value of our dollar increases the cost of everything else.

Also, a lot of people rant about fiat money and yet the current mantra is go to cash? How is fiat money better, especially since trillions of those worthless greenbacks are floating around the international money markets?; October 16, 2006 6:15 AM
Anonymous said...: not that any one of them is worth 130,000 sale price; October 16, 2006 6:23 AM
Anonymous said...: Households and investors are now sitting comfortably and patiently on the sidelines waiting to get back into the real estate game, but only when property prices come down to more suitable levels.
----------------------

BVLLLLLLL SH!TTTTTTTT!

They aren't sitting one the sidelines, they are curled up in the fetal position in the trench getting shell shocked!

CHICAGO RE Update: Vistied the recently finished townhome complex on Irving Pk Rd and Califorina. Driving past *6* Forsale by Owner signs. I followed the signs of "Open House" to the back where I walked up the stairs to the model unit. Guess what? No one was home! There was a note on the door saying showings are done only by APPOINTMENT!

You are kidding me right?? They gave up the fort to the indians! They are not even manning the ramparts! On a Sunday afternoon of all times! How the F- do you expect to sell if you aint even around??

It's over.

Chicago is over priced, let me tell you. Not as bad as S.D. or S.F. but we are right there.

Met an owner walking his dogs in the complex. He told me that they all bought pre-cons at $380,000 for a 2 bed 2 bath 1 car. HAHAAHA! His two neighbors, who never moved in (floppers), wanted $450,000+ at the top of this year and are still trying. The only units available are asking $800,000+!!! HAHAHAHAHA

Bye Bye.; October 16, 2006 6:40 AM
Miss Goldbug said...: Anon 6:46 said:"2. NOTHING IS SELLING - Know lots and lots of Bankers and Brokers - pretty mich every application is being 1. Turned down after the appriasal. or 2. Asking for more money from the buyer as a down payment".

We knew this was coming with the re-instatement of loan policy. No one can qualify for a loan now - what are buyers with very little down going to do? we know they can't affor to pay more... well it's all up to the sellers now.

Good info, keep us tuned in.; October 16, 2006 2:05 PM
Miss Goldbug said...: My husband and I went to an open house here in SW Reno yesterday, and were surprised the owners were showing the home themselves. Had I known that beforehand, I might not have gone in, being I like to critique the layout and design to my husband....

Anyway, she showed us all around and we asked why they were selling, she said they wanted RV parking! they were tired of going to the storage place to get their trailor. Mind you, their house was beautiful and well maintained- what an expensive addition that RV parking will end up costing them if they actually find someone to buy their home.

BTW, from her attitude, they have no idea the market has changed. No sense of panic or urgentcy what-s-ever. They are in for a surprise if they think selling now is going to be easy.; October 16, 2006 2:23 PM
Roccman said...: From the NY Times, October 16, 2006

A Power-Grid Report Suggests Some Dark Days Ahead

By MATTHEW L. WALD

WASHINGTON, Oct. 15 — Companies are not building power plants and
power lines fast enough to meet growing demand, according to a group
recently assigned by the federal government to assure proper
operation of the power grid.

The group, the North American Electric Reliability Council, in its
annual report, to be released Monday, said the amount of power that
could be generated or transmitted would drop below the target levels
meant to ensure reliability on peak days in Texas, New England, the
Mid-Atlantic area and the Midwest during the next two to three years.

The council was established in 1965 after a blackout across the
Northeast, and has since set voluntary standards for the industry.
After the blackout of 2003, which covered a vast swath of the
Midwest, Northeast and Ontario, Congress set up a process that would
eventually give the council the authority to fine American companies
that did not follow certain operating standards. It is seeking a
similar designation in Canada, since — electrically speaking — the
border is irrelevant.

For years, the council has produced often-gloomy annual reports, but
this is the first to be officially filed with federal agencies, and
to recommend specific action.

The report says, for example, that utilities should be encouraged to
pursue financial incentives for customers to cut use during peak
hours, thereby lowering demand for new power plants and transmission
lines. Financial incentives could reward customers' installation of
more efficient equipment or, more drastically, reward a factory for
closing on a day when electricity supplies are expected to be tight.

The president of the council, Rick P. Sergel, said in a telephone
interview, "The situation has existed for a long time, but we cannot
let it continue."

Planning for adequate capacity has become more difficult with the
restructuring of the electric industry. Where a handful of top-to-
bottom companies once generated power, transmitted it and delivered
it, hundreds of companies are now involved in only one or two phases
of the process. At the same time, getting permits to build new power
lines has become more difficult.

The actual balance between supply and demand depends in part on
changes in technology. Grid operators can now push more power
through existing lines, plant operators have found ways to make
generators more reliable and sharp increases in the efficiency of
how electricity is used could slow demand.

The report predicts that demand will increase by about 19 percent
over the next 10 years in the United States, and slightly less in
Canada, and that the construction of power plants and transmission
lines to carry that load will fall far short of what is needed. In
this country, utilities have contracts with new power plants for
only about a third of the capacity that will be needed; in Canada,
the number is about two-thirds.

The number of miles of transmission lines, which can help
redistribute supplies, will increase by only about 7 percent, the
report said.; October 16, 2006 2:43 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.counterp unch.org/ avnery10142006. html

Gaza as Laboratory
The Great Experiment
By URI AVNERY

IS IT possible to force a whole people to submit to foreign occupation
by starving it?

That is, certainly, an interesting question. So interesting, indeed,
that the governments of Israel and the United States, in close
cooperation with Europe, are now engaged in a rigorous scientific
experiment in order to obtain a definitive answer.

The laboratory for the experiment is the Gaza Strip, and the guinea
pigs are the million and a quarter Palestinians living there.

In order to meet the required scientific standards, it was necessary
first of all to prepare the laboratory.

That was done in the following way: First, Ariel Sharon uprooted the
Israeli settlements that were stuck there. After all, you can't
conduct a proper experiment with pets roaming around the laboratory.
It was done with "determination and sensitivity" , tears flowed like
water, the soldiers kissed and embraced the evicted settlers, and
again it was shown that the Israeli army is the most-most in the
world.; October 16, 2006 2:45 PM
Miss Goldbug said...: My husband looked at a open house last week here in SW Reno.

We are talking about a 1950's remodeled rancher, with new inside paint and of course granite and SS appliances. Cost per square foot on this property: 200 dollars!

When I got home, I checked the county assessors page and found out this home sold for 268K in 10/03/2003, then sold again for 511K in 4/19/2004, purchased by a Henderson LLC...well its been sitting on the market since 3/25/05 and the price dropped from $929K to 799K with no offers.

I noticed the flipper got a hold of it because it was a beautiful rancher in excellent original condition, then it was FLIPPERIZED, and painted over all the natural brown wood ceilings and trim to white, and put granite and SS appliances in. Everything was "pottery barn modernized" except one bathroom which was in excellent original condition.

I can't stand flippers. They keep average families from buying afford homes and at the same time they have ruined all the old beautiful homes by putting granite and stainless in everything. Doesnt matter if it's spanish, tudor or traditional style.

Everyday more and more homes go up for sale here in my area. There are homes that have been on the market for over a year that havent sold. New inventory coming on the market all the time.; October 16, 2006 3:27 PM
Anonymous said...: Hello! If you look into the fine print of the measures on the November ballot, you will read that "President Bush has given Governor Schwarzeneggar the authority to acquire (STEAL) $200 billion in realestate to redevelop California." I went to www.calvoter.org and www.followthemoney.org and found that land developers gave them millions in campaign contributions and now it is payback time for the good ole boys club.

In June of this year I along with 33,000 others in Sonoma County was given notice of "rezoning and future use of our property." They told us to "donate our home or face a costly legal battle that we will lose for sure." The government has a new tool, they rezone you to "biotic habitat, riparian corridor, OPEN SPACE, possible endangered species" of plants and animals and bugs and amphibians. I got the "tiger salamander" which is not present on my dry sunny piece of property. They also say I am in a "biotic habitat" which means anyone living within 20 feet of a rainwater ditch, weep, creek, spring, river, etc. I live across the street from a seasonal rainwater ditch that is on county property. "Riparian corridor" is where wild life walks through. I was not even going to tell them that I have seen fox, possum, racoon, moles, gophers on my property because they forgot to label me with the one that is actually the truth!!! They have no scientific research to back their lies. I found out through the US Fish and Wildlife that they "did not find enough scientific data to conclude that the tiger salamander was facing extinction in Sonoma County." Rather they "found the local government is economically disadvantaging it's citizens as a result of this."

Down the road from me an organic apple farmer owned 20 acres with a house and barns. The city of Cotati and Sonoma county told him he had the tiger salamander and condemned his business/livelihood and his house. A planning commissioner gave him $150,000 for his condemned land. She through her connections to a land developers and local politicians, and her very own environmental impact reporting company, got it rezoned, subdivided and sold in pieces for millions. She lives in a 2+ million dollar older house in a grand neighborhood in Santa Rosa, that a contractor remodeled and had to take her to court to get paid for his awesome work. She is also sporting around in a new German convertible sports car. The former owner was pushed out of the California market and bankrupted. This is down the road from me in Cotati where a home improvement store is sitting on the former organic apple orchard and new townhouses. There is a strip mall about to go in there and a business park. Now the salamander she says is "possibly on my property" and I have to pay her $20,000 to have it removed. Or pay a fine when I need to do minor repairs to my home like on my well or if someone runs into my fence. I call this government racketeering at it's finest, some lie and call it preserving "open space." Vote NO on new communities, new roads, new stores and vote no on open space as it will take away all our property rights. VOTE YES ON 90 IF YOU DON'T WANT TO FACE HOMELESSNESS AND BANKRUPTCY LIKE ME! Something has got to change or we are going to need another civil war ASAP.; October 16, 2006 3:28 PM
Anonymous said...: I'd gather as much documentation as you can and call the newspapers. Sounds like a good story they may want to expose.; October 16, 2006 3:55 PM
Anonymous said...: The Lighter Side, if there is one.
(:

http://cagle.com/news/
HousingPricesFall/main.asp; October 16, 2006 4:07 PM
Anonymous said...: FACE HOMELESSNESS AND BANKRUPTCY LIKE ME

Sorry for what you are going through.
I have been there done that with the home owner insurance industry and the IRS, who were working on a mistake! Both times I lost a home.
Really, I think no one cares about the white middle class. We will be a minority in about 10 years or so, then there may be some quid pro quo.
Best to you during your time of political war.
I barley survived mine and you will too.
I do not know what stupid people do, but brains or no brains, I would not survive another hit.
Never give up.; October 16, 2006 4:15 PM
Anonymous said...: Went grocery shopping at the local Giant the other day, bought some veggies, some soaps, toiletries and the like, about 5 lbs of meats and sodas- $180.00. Except for two boxed of cereal, absolutely nothing was prepared. The food filled a single drawer in my fridge.; October 16, 2006 4:25 PM
Roccman said...: Liars Welcomed, but Dissident Loses Laptop to Canada's Politically
Correct Customs

VANCOUVER. October 9. Canadian free speech activist and broadcaster Paul
Fromm was detained for over two hours by Canada Customs and subjected to
a minute search of his luggage and pockets. The anonymous operatives for
Canada Border Services Agency took one book Race, Intelligence and Bias
in Academe as suspected "hate" propaganda. They first cleared then
decided to seize Mr. Fromm's laptop for further investigation. Fromm was
returning from Seattle for a speaking engagement Oct. 10 in Vancouver,

Fromm recalls: "When I went through primary inspection, the female agent
wrote the number "1" on my declaration. I was immediately signalled over
after I had picked up my luggage.

The secondary inspection takes place in a long hall with 17 stations
with stainless steel examining tables. I was first dealt with by two
East Indian males agents who refused to give me their names. My
briefcase was examined piece of paper by piece of paper. I objected to
the agent reading a note from an elderly supporter in Edmonton. I
objected as this note praising one of our recent newsletters is utterly
outside their mandate. It's not drugs, or weapons, or undeclared
merchandize or currency over $10,000. Their behaviour was bullying,
humiliating and intrusive, all the more so as these gutless wonders
repeatedly refused to provide me with their names.

A female agent insisted that I accompany her to something that looked
like one of those telephone cubicles along the wall. A waist high table
was attached to the wall. I was forced to empty all my pockets and turn
them inside out. My personal and probably illegible notes and my licence
and several other documents disappeared with her into a room with smoky
reflective glass.

When I objected to the prolonged search my papers a nameless East Indian
with real attitude told me: "I don't want to listen to you."

I reluctantly put in the password so that the snoops could examine my
laptop in my presence. The last time, it was seized in Vancouver in
August, 2005, it disappeared into the room with the smoky glass.
Afterwards, it had to be debugged from whatever had been placed on it or
happened to it. After a long examination, it was returned to me.

The agents went off to the dark room to write-up the seizure form -- an
activity that should have taken no more than 5 minutes. More than half
an hour later, I asked an agent to get the supervisor as I had been
there so long. Meanwhile of the original 7 agents I had seen when I
first entered, the hall was for some time utterly empty of agents or
victims, except me.

When the agents returned it was to tell me they were seizing my laptop
as well as such accessories as the mouse and battery pack. I objected to
this theft. A mouse couldn't possibly contain 'hate propaganda.'

One especially belligerent blonde female objected to my use of the word
'theft.' I said: 'This laptop is mine; it's not yours. You have it. I
don't. I call it theft!'

In the more than two hours I was detained, fewer than 15 people were
sent over for secondary inspection. No one on my plane of about 50 was
deemed of interest.

Most people were handled informally: 'We'll try to get you on your way
quickly,' the agents assured them.

Two old East Indians in saris were dealt with in some foreign language
by the two East Indian agents. Smiles all around. No search of their
luggage and they were on their way.

Three Chinese were questioned for about 10 minutes. As they left, the
agent warned them: 'Next time get your story straight or we can send you
back.' He then helpfully escorted the liars to the door and was
directing them, whether to a cab or an ongoing flight, I couldn't tell.

The only other person detained for any length of time was also White. I
shall call him 'the student.' His luggage was searched at length and he,
too, had to go through the degrading process of emptying all his
pockets. The Chinese trio of liars did not. Nothing was seized from him
but the agents seemed suspicious as to whether he was coming to Canada
to study as he claimed.

It is clear that the theft of my laptop, vital to my livelihood is a
form of outright political persecution. The next day, I contacted Canada
Border Services Agency at Vancouver Airport to track my stolen goods. I
eventually was directed to the 'seizure control office' with the ominous
phone number of 604-666-1811. At first, and you get used to this with
government offices, no one would answer and I had to leave a message. I
was persistent and eventually got a FAX number out the nameless woman
who answered. I pointed out that, once before my laptop had been seized
and my lawyer got it returned within a few days.

Lawyer Barbara Kulaszka wrote on October 11: 'It is clear that the
seizure of my client's laptop was not made on any determination that it
contained hate propaganda. My client informs me that the laptop
contained only software that he uses on a daily basis for writing and
some private e-mails.

'Hate propaganda, by definition, is a matter that is in the public
domain and intended for public consumption, by sale or distribution. My
client's private e-mails and software are NOT for sale or for reading by
any person other than those private individuals they are sent to.'

The laptop computer should be returned immediately, as it is clear there
were no grounds for its legal detention.'

The Canada Border Services Agency is a disgrace. Members were involved
in a complete breech of trust in a narcotics smuggling ring through
Pearson Airport several years ago. On a number of occasions recently, in
both Ontario and British Columbia, agents have fled their posts when
they learned an armed American fugitive 'might' be headed for the
border.

Add to this the fact that these courage challenged political police are
allowed to operate anonymously and you have a recipe for tyranny. They
don't 'stand on guard' for Canada. Few visitors are checked by the
agents who seem to spend long periods of time sipping coffee. Liars are
greeted and allowed in while political dissidents have their possessions
looted.

I urge you, if you're an American, to contact a Canadian consulate and
let them know your reluctance to come to Canada on business or pleasure
as long as anonymous Customs agents can arbitrarily seize your laptop.
Your voice through a simple phone call, FAX or letter could be a great
help in the battle for freedom.

Contact Information for the Canadian Embassy and Consulates in the U.S.; October 16, 2006 4:54 PM
Anonymous said...: "Race, Intelligence and Bias
in Academe"

That's kindof funny this guy is talking about race bias, and it's all the non-whites who are running the show.

Maybe he should change to be a white supremacist.; October 16, 2006 7:06 PM
Anonymous said...: Oh, nevermind. Sounds like that Canadian guy is already kindof a racist.

Guess he got what he deserved. LOL; October 16, 2006 7:11 PM
Anonymous said...: I can't stand flippers. They keep average families from buying afford homes and at the same time they have ruined all the old beautiful homes by putting granite and stainless in everything. Doesnt matter if it's spanish, tudor or traditional style.
++++++++++++++++++++

My sentiments exactly. And if the Bush Administration hadn't allowed these "exotic" mortgages to run wild for YEARS, we wouldn't have had to deal with so many of these d**m flippers screwing things up for everybody else....; October 16, 2006 7:48 PM
Anonymous said...: Didn't Bush's brother Neil blow-up Siverado S&L back in the 80's? Birds of a feather....; October 16, 2006 8:21 PM
Anonymous said...: Death and Resurrection of the US Dollar
A Review Article

by Adrian Salbuchi

October 15, 2006
GlobalResearch.ca

Greenspan will state something along the lines that “in an effort to uphold and reinforce the US economy and that of its key allies; to protect consumer interests and those of major corporations; to preserve the international financial system and to thwart a potential financial meltdown; to balance the Budget and avoid a stock market collapse, the United States will effective immediately implement a far-reaching Economic Reform and Financial overhaul, declaring an extended banking and exchange holiday”. In Argentina, we have lot’s of experience on this!.

He will then inform that President George W. Bush, with the full support of Congress, will sign a series of emergency executive orders whereby the US Dollar will be placed on a Gold Standard. Correspondingly, this will necessitate introducing a New Dollar convertible into metallic gold and this new currency shall replace all the “old dollars” in circulation which, as we have seen, are only backed by worthless paper, i.e., Fiat money. What’s going to happen with those “old” dollars? They will have to exchanged for New Dollars, of course.

All persons holding US Dollar Notes and Treasury instruments who are citizens of the US or are domiciled in the US, together with US corporations, and persons, corporations and organizations domiciled in countries allied to the US (most notably, the United Kingdom and State of Israel) shall have their “old” Dollars exchanged for New Dollars on a 1-to-1 parity.

In the rest of the world – i.e., Asia-Pacific, Central and South America, Africa, Russia, the Muslim World – changing “old” Dollars for New ones will depend on the local “exchange markets” which will fix the “proper” rate of exchange between the extremely plentiful “old” Dollars and the extremely scarce New Dollars. And what will that rate of exchange be? One-to-one? I doubt it, because supply and demand will set in almost as fast as panic. Two “old” Dollars for One New Dollar, then? Or, maybe, 3-to-1? Or 5-to-1? Or 10-to-1? Who knows? “Let the laws of the free-market economy – supply and demand – do their bidding”. And whatever happens elsewhere will certainly not be the concern of the US.

We will then see millions upon millions of desperate and panicky people, companies, banks, operators, players of all sorts throughout the planet running amok all at the same time trying to unload their “old” Dollars and exchange them for New Dollars. Again, in Argentina we have a huge amount of experience on this…

url; http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context
=viewArticle&code=SAL20061015&articleId=3490; October 16, 2006 9:37 PM
Roccman said...: Why Is Bush Waiting On Military Commissions Act?
Many fear pre-election event will lead to expansion of bill, hold on Bush's signature provides window of opportunity for attempt at repeal

Paul Joseph Watson & Alex Jones/Prison Planet.com | October 16 2006

The Military Commissions Act of 2006 was passed by the Senate over two weeks ago yet, as Keith Olbermann pointed out in his excellent MSNBC commentary last week, Bush has not yet actually signed HR 6166 and it doesn't become law until his signature is on it. Whatever the reason for the delay, this represents an opportunity to get the story about how America died on the evening of Thursday September 28th back on top of the headlines.

Will Bush choose to ignore legislation passed by Congress and the Senate as he has done in the past with other bills and essentially veto the act? There's probably more chance of Mark Foley getting re-elected but this momentary pauses at least gives us the opportunity to keep the legislation in the media spotlight and rally for a repeal.

Olbermann outlined the fact that the act expeditiously nullifies nine of the first ten freedoms clarified in the bill of rights. It seems the McCain "compromise" at least left us with one remaining "bill of right." Many of the members of Congress who voted in favor of the bill to officially end America didn't even read it.

The big question at the moment is why Bush has delayed signing the legislation even in the midst of fast-tracking other bills of little significance?

It was reported by the Washington Post over the weekend that Bush and Karl Rove are "inexplicably upbeat" about the upcoming midterm elections and expected the Democrats to easily fall short of the 15-seat threshold that would see them recapture the House.

In the face of scandals piled atop scandals and the universal unpopularity of the ongoing quagmire in Iraq, how on earth can Bush and Rove expect to employ successful damage limitation, absent some intervening event or the "October surprise" that Rove himself promised.

The arrogance of the Neo-Cons has led many to fear that HR 6166 is being maintained in a holding position in anticipation of a major event that will give the Bush administration carte blanche to expand its provisions and sharpen its focus to further target American citizens.

WHAT THE MILITARY COMMISSIONS ACT OF 2006 "LEGISLATES"

- Doesn't suspend, as is accommodated for in the Constitution, but completely abolishes Habeas Corpus permanently - the right of the detainee to see the evidence against him and not be locked up for eternity based on the arbitrary will of the state.

- Contains a definition of "wrongfully aiding the enemy" which labels all American citizens who breach their "allegiance" to President Bush and the actions of his government as terrorists subject to possible arrest, torture and conviction in front of a military tribunal.; October 16, 2006 9:46 PM
Anonymous said...: Prices for Destin, Florida condos falling off a cliff ... I've been tracking prices in a condo complex I'd like to own but am waiting for REASONABLE prices. Here's a copy paste from a spreadsheet I keep. Prices on the far left are current asking prices. Prices to the right are the original asking price, reduced prices followed by total drop in price form original and percent drop. As you can see, many have had several reductions and the biggest percent drop (so far) is 22.2% or $99,900 ... here's the data:

$589,000
$565,000
$549,500 $498,500 $489,500 $51,000 10.2%
$510,000
$510,000
$499,900
$499,000 $535,000 -$36,000 -6.7%
$499,000
$499,000
$495,000
$485,000
$484,500 $525,000 -$40,500 -7.7%
$479,900
$479,000 $559,000 $539,900 $519,000 -$80,000 -14.3%
$479,000
$469,900 $555,000 -$85,100 -15.3%
$449,000 $499,000 -$50,000 -10.0%
$449,000
$449,000
$419,900
$419,000
$418,000 $499,900 $489,000 $449,000 -$81,900 -16.4%
$415,000 $472,000 -$57,000 -12.1%
$400,000 $485,000 $442,000 -$85,000 -17.5%
$399,000
$390,000 $445,000 $425,000 -$55,000 -12.4%
$350,000 $449,900 $419,000 $399,000 -$99,900 -22.2%; October 16, 2006 10:17 PM
Anonymous said...: The inventory is climbing even in not-too-bubbled Huntsville, AL.

http://www.huntsvillealabamausa.com/new_exp/community_data/econ_performance/homesales.html

Well, maybe some bubbles... and they have cut a lot of lots from farmland which as of yet are not being built on. It feels like a slowdown around here.; October 16, 2006 11:24 PM
Anonymous said...: If there is, I won't be back.
Paintblot,
You always say that.; October 16, 2006 11:59 PM
Anonymous said...: f**king

you probably just spelled it wrong.

hehe; October 17, 2006 12:46 AM
Anonymous said...: It was reported by the Washington Post over the weekend that Bush and Karl Rove are "inexplicably upbeat" about the upcoming midterm elections and expected the Democrats to easily fall short of the 15-seat threshold that would see them recapture the House.
++++++++++++++++

It looks like the fix may be on for the 2006 Election, just as it was for the 2004 Election.; October 17, 2006 1:21 AM
Anonymous said...: F**KING
F**KING
F**KING

Keith seems to think this site is a family oriented site, with children reading all this crap!
What F**KING children want to read this pile of crap all day?

And then everybody thinks if they spell F**K like this, Its o.k.

I say start spelling your fucking
cuss words correctly or shut the fuck up!; October 17, 2006 1:30 AM
Anonymous said...: It looks like the fix may be on for the 2006 Election, just as it was for the 2004 Election.
______________________

Doubt me? Read this article:

http://tinyurl.com/ogrhq; October 17, 2006 1:32 AM
Anonymous said...: i see all your west coast coverage - where is the rest of the country's coverage of housing doom & gloom?

also what about the correlation between the bubble and all 17 'flip-that-house' programs that are sooooo last year (or last housing boom); October 17, 2006 1:46 AM
Roccman said...: "I can do without heavy handed censorship."

Keefer has his blogger pets...

you may be on his "I like you list"; October 17, 2006 2:05 AM
Anonymous said...: This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.; October 17, 2006 3:29 AM
Roccman said...: Wonder what would happen if I called Keefer an inbred moron??

hmmmmmmmmm...

Hey Keefer - u awake??; October 17, 2006 4:51 AM
Roccman said...: Governors of six Persian Gulf central banks, including Saudi Arabia, the
United Arab Emirates and Qatar, will meet next month as they seek to create
the Middle East's first unified currency by 2010, a Qatari official said.

Monetary Union

The meeting, planned for Nov. 4 in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, is the next step in
a round of talks among the six Gulf monarchies to discuss monetary union,
said Basheer Yousef al-Kahalooth, an official at the Qatar Central Bank, in
a phone interview from Doha.

Monetary union among the Persian Gulf monarchies may lead to the end of
their currencies' peg to the U.S. dollar, and ``a more flexible currency
regime,'' said Monica Malik, an economist with Standard Chartered Bank in
Dubai.

``This is another dollar-selling factor,'' said Brian Dolan, research
director at Forex.com, a unit of online currency trading firm Gain Capital
in Bedminster, New Jersey, which has about $250 million worth of funds under
management. ``It is eroding some of the dollar strength we have seen in the
past two weeks.''
http://www.bloomber g.com/apps/ news?pid= 20601101& sid=a6kczc. RLnpY&refer= japan; October 17, 2006 4:58 AM
Roccman said...: Sunday, October 15, 2006

Kool Aid & Krispy Kremes

I asked Mike Morgan at Morgan Florida if he had an update for us.
Here it is. It is something quite different too.

Mike Morgan:

With so many “experts” out there singing the praises of the housing market, I think it is time for me to once again poke my head out. I had an email exchange this week with Jim Cramer, and it was hard to believe he is as bullish as he is. I hear from too many analysts and Wall Street gurus that don’t take the time to get out of their offices and get on the front line here in Florida, as well as Arizona, Texas, California, Virginia, etc. I also hear from the analysts and hedge fund managers that are visiting the corporate offices of the big builders. Unfortunately, they’re drinking the Cool Aid. It’s potent stuff that clouds rational thinking and it is probably just what is needed to wash down a few hundred stale donuts.

Do you remember my analogy of housing to donuts? A year ago I said this was like the room of 1,000 donuts. Even if they are warm Krispy Kremes, how many can you eat? Three? Maybe four? And even if you come back the next day, and the donuts are now half price, how many can you eat? Same thing with housing. We only have so many people in the US. But builders built houses like donuts. They sold houses to non-users. They sold houses to the greedy masses that bought multiple houses to flip. Now we have the inventory, but there are not enough people to occupy these homes. Moreover, with interest rates rising and mortgages becoming tougher to obtain, we have less and less people that can buy these homes, even if they want to.

Since my recent article in Barron's, I have received dozens of calls from builders, bankers, buyers and investment groups perched like vultures. Let me give you a sampling of a few calls.

Public Builder - Called me to find them bulk buyers with the ability to buy out all remaining units in developments they cannot sell. They are willing to sell at cost. I told them they were about 10% over the current distress market, and they didn’t even hesitate. They said, fine. Drop the price 10% and we’ll pay a 5% commission to you. Just help us get rid of this inventory.

Condo Developer - They have a 600 unit project that is 100% up for resale. This means no one is going to close when the building is completed in January. Every single buyer will walk from their 20% deposits. The developer will simply going to turn the keys over to the bank. And the bank will take a massive hit that will have the Feds on top of them in the blink of an eye.

Townhome Developer - Asked me to resell 132 units that they had sold a year ago for an average of $400,000 a unit. All of their buyers have notified them that they will not close. Unfortunately, even a year ago in the heated market these units were only worth about $250,000. Now, the units will not command more than $175,000 . . . if they’re lucky.

Real Estate Agent - She sold 10 of the 132 units I just mentioned to her friends, family, banker and co-workers. They’re all going to walk away from their $40,000 deposits, so they don’t lose $250,000. The developer will be stuck with 132 units that are not worth what it cost to build them.

Homeowner - This one really hurts, and this is the next wave of the massive tidal wave hitting this industry. As surfers know, the third set is the biggest. This homeowner purchased her home for $390,000 plus $15,000 in closing costs. It is now worth maybe $300,000. Their interest only ARM is scheduled for refinancing. The bank told them they need to come up with additional cash to cover the drop in equity. But they don’t have the $75,000 the bank wants. And even if they sell for $300,000 and clear $280,000, they can’t pay off their $390,000 mortgage balance. You see, their mortgage was 100% and it was interest only. They are going to walk away from the house and give it to the bank. The bank, if they are lucky, will sell the house for $300,000 less commissions and expenses. Maybe they will net out at $280,000. The math is simple. The bank, at best, will lose at least $110,000 on a $390,000 mortgage. That’s a 28% loss . . . IF they can sell at $300,000. Back to the donuts. Maybe they can sell a few of these homes at market prices, but as foreclosures mount, prices will drop further.

The Third Wave - This massive tidal wave will effect all aspects of our economy. Some banks will fail. Other banks will suffer the worst liquidity crisis since the Depression. And there is no way to stop this wave. This wave not only effects current mortgage holders who can no longer afford to live in their homes, but it devastates the new home market. Buyers with contracts are finding it tougher to qualify for mortgages. We can’t forget that rates are also up about 18% from a year ago, so buyers cannot afford the same home they could have a year ago.

I will wrap up with a statistic from a recent FDIC presentation.

“Bank exposure to mortgage and home equity is now at peak levels, having risen dramatically. If you look at 1998, the total exposure to mortgage and home equity loans was about 25 percent. In the last quarter, the third quarter, it had risen to 37 percent.”

And here’s the why this tidal wave is a killer. The 25 percent exposure was during a period of rising home prices and low inventory levels. The 37 percent follows the first two tidal waves of the highest inventory levels in the history of the United States and prices falling with equity disappearing daily.

I sold three homes last week for one public builder. Each of these homes sold for 40% less than the same homes sold a year ago. How about all of those neighbors when it comes time to refinance? The appraiser is going to look at current sales prices, and the bank is going to ask for additional funds to meet the equity requirements. Ouch. Where’s the Kool Aid?; October 17, 2006 1:31 PM
Anonymous said...: called some chick a skank, told Ben he was an inbred moron.

Mort,

I am sure the chick was wrong and fairly deserving of your response. After all that

open and honest

dialogue is what keeps me reading HP daily.

Well, plus it is pretty fun to just wail on an idiot.

PS.

Keith, from day one has not wanted 4 letter words spelled right. I am just sayin.

InfidelWoman; October 17, 2006 1:38 PM
Anonymous said...: In the news I read that sometime today, the US population will cross the 300 million mark.

Am I the only person here, who has pictured in their mind this hilarious image of a Mexican running across the US border, with a big tag pinned to his shirt that reads, “300,000,000?”; October 17, 2006 2:37 PM
Anonymous said...: Mammoth,

Too funny.
I was thing of a nice free anchor baby.; October 17, 2006 2:54 PM
Anonymous said...: Richard,
Military Commission Act has been signed by Pres Bush.
Just saw it on FOX News.
Home sick today.; October 17, 2006 2:55 PM
Anonymous said...: Good comment raised by a poster at bubblemeter. That is, whatever happened to the housing price clock at drodio realty that was to be changed to reflect the new market conditions.; October 17, 2006 3:28 PM
Anonymous said...: This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.; October 17, 2006 4:03 PM
Anonymous said...: Well, the bubble has finally hit here, in a way. A long sitting housing development started to put houses up, in SEPT!? The complex had the go-ahead from the town fathers last year, but the school board, in order to get ahead of the game (so many homes equals 2.2 kids or whatever,) ordered their assessors to jack up taxes. When the majority of the pre-construction buyers under contract found out what their new tax bills were going to be, they walked. The bank locked up the developer’s funds with the warning that they had 90 days to replace those cancelled contracts or find new backers. I can only assume the developers couldn't find new suckers to buy the homes ($300.000+, spec sh#tboxes, on a postage stamp lot, outrageous for this area, but hey you can become the new JONES overnight, that everybody else has to keep up with) but somehow found another backer to put up the money.
Hence the delay in groundbreaking from early Feb 06(when weather was unseasonably mild) to Sept (as we go into the holidays and fall/winter,) not the best time to build/sell houses.
Anyway, I drove thru the development yesterday to get an up close look. Three models homes, plus 8-10 more under various stages of construction, every one with a SOLD sign out front. Looks like they are only building with a confirmed contract.
Then came the kicker. As we drove buy the last model home, my wife says: Didn't you see that "FREE CAR WITH PURCHASE" sign out in front of the sales office when we drove in? I almost sh#t! She knows I love HP and am on it every morning right after I check emails. It looks like I am going to have to stop bye after church Sunday, while I still have my suit on, and bust some realtwhore's chops. I already have a list of things in mind, not the least of which is throwing out an utterly ridiculous lowball, seeing what’s in the models, asking for free upgrades, etc.
Any suggestions from our loyal HP devotees for some additional deviltry? (Halloween you know); October 17, 2006 4:31 PM
Anonymous said...: Richard,
Military Commission Act has been signed by Pres Bush.
Just saw it on FOX News.
++++++++++++++++++

The American Civil Liberties Union said the new law is "one of the worst civil liberties measures ever enacted in American history."

"The president can now, with the approval of Congress, indefinitely hold people without charge, take away protections against horrific abuse, put people on trial based on hearsay evidence, authorize trials that can sentence people to death based on testimony literally beaten out of witnesses, and slam shut the courthouse door for habeas petitions," said ACLU Executive Director Anthony D. Romero.

"Nothing could be further from the American values we all hold in our hearts than the Military Commissions Act," he said.

http://tinyurl.com/u9b77

Think this doesn't have anything to do with the housing bubble? Think again. If foreign central banks stop buying our Treasury bonds because they lose confidence in our government, then what's to become of our economy?; October 17, 2006 5:22 PM
Roccman said...: http://www.informat ionclearinghouse .info/article153 13.htm

America Moves Toward War with Iran

By William R. Polk

10/16/06 "Information Clearing House" -- -- After careful study of recent moves and statements by the Bush Administration, I have concluded that there is at least a 10% chance of an American attack on Iran before the November 7 Congressional elections and about a 90% chance before the administration’ s end in 2008. In this and following articles I will explain that prediction, illustrate what moves are now being made the prepare for war, analyze what the results of such actions would be and, finally, discuss what alternatives America has to bring about what it wishes to achieve in Iran. I begin with the prediction.; October 17, 2006 5:56 PM
Roccman said...: "Richard,
Military Commission Act has been signed by Pres Bush.
"

We are fucked!!!; October 17, 2006 5:57 PM
Anonymous said...: Care to comment Kieth?

Most investors don't realise it... but Britain is sliding into a recession

Your friends, neighbours, and even your broker would say this kind of talk was "pessimistic". They're part of a majority who think they're sitting pretty. High house prices make people feel rich and secure these days.

But they're being led like sheep into an economic disaster.

Whatever the government and the City of London say about our "buoyant economy" and "controlled inflation", the intelligent minority know that something is very, very wrong.

It shows that our economy is not built on a bedrock of industry and commerce. It's actually floating on an enormous bubble of debt.

Personal debt levels, where the family home is used as collateral, has soared 52% in five years... and grows by £1 million every four minutes.

For years, this madness has been encouraged by the banks and government. They've poured cheap credit and easy money into the economy to keep it buoyant. They've kept interest rates at artificially low levels, making it easier and easier to borrow.

And so the people have flocked to buy expensive houses and buy-to-let properties, borrowed on their credit cards, spent on their store cards, released equity from their homes...

I mean, who cares about debt when interest repayments are 4.75%? Who thinks twice about running up a £1,000 bill on their credit card? Why save money for six months when you can buy what you want right now?

But now it's time for payback. The problem is, Britain is broke. A plague of bankruptcies has struck the UK

Britain is waiting at the "easy cash" machine. But it looks like we've reached our credit limit. Just look at what's happening...

- The Credit Counselling Service (CCS) says the number of clients with debts of more than £100,000, excluding mortgages, has doubled since last year.

- Barclays say that their levels of bad debt are expected to soar by 50%, to more than £1bn in the first half of the year. Bad debts at HBOS are expected to hit £1bn, up from £767m.

- The total number of personal bankruptcy petitions last year was 70,000 - twice the level of 2002... that's BIGGER than in the last recession of 1992, when the country was rocked by unemployment, high interest rates and a housing market crash.

- Thanks to a 220% surge in house prices since 1996, mortgage debt has shot through the £1 trillion level... a level that bears absolutely NO relation to the amount of money people actually earn. A small slump in prices, never mind a crash, could spell disaster.

Any smart investor can see...

This isn't a buoyant economy - or even a healthy one

As I write this, Britons have borrowed a total of £1,200 billion. That's roughly equal to our annual gross domestic product (GDP)! This means we've borrowed as much money as the country can actually produce in the way of goods and services!

This is like a baker who produces £50 worth of bread to sell each morning and borrows £50 from the bank each afternoon! He'd be on the brink of disaster if the price of bread fell or the price of borrowing rose.

This is our economy in a nutshell. And you should be very, very worried about it, too.

Just think of the consequences for you if Britain's current debt bubble bursts. Think about what would happen if living costs and interest rates soar to levels where people can't afford to pay their bills or their mortgages... and stop spending money on anything except basic goods and services...

The outcome would threaten your investments and savings, whether you're debt free or not. Britain could become a "killing field" of insolvencies, unemployment and home repossessions.

Imagine your mortgage repayments shooting so high that your personal life is throttled by heavy repayments. Imagine having to wait an extra 10 years to pay off your mortgage...

Or your pension being sucked up by astronomical fuel bills and stealth taxes... or your dreams of early retirement, a second home and a financial legacy for your family... all wiped out by an economic disaster that could last the rest of your life.

This is what I am talking about...

A Britain in recession.

Even the Bank of England, usually outwardly confident about the economy, is panicking. Their latest Financial Stability Review recently hinted at the very REAL possibility of a "credit meltdown".

And here's how such a scenario would play out...

In a "credit meltdown", banks turn away from offering the easy terms that have been offered to so many people for so long. Interest rates soar. Higher-risk borrowers face having their loans foreclosed and bankruptcy rates soar. As more and more consumers struggle to pay their debts, the credit crunch swiftly becomes a recession. That means falling incomes, unemployment, house repossessions, bankruptcy and soaring taxes.

So this recent surge of bankruptcies is not just because people have spent too much on their credit cards, as the mainstream media like to make out.

It's actually the first sign of a recession.

Like I said, you won't hear about this from your know-it-all neighbour who thinks his £250,000 property makes him a rich man. Or from your young relative who buys cheap trainers and can't remember the last recession.

You're probably one of the first to realise that the economic landscape has changed... that the era of low inflation, low interest rates and easy money is OVER... that the next few years will be a struggle for most Britons... that unless you take some of the precautions detailed in this report, you risk seeing your investments crash through the floor in the next 12 months.

The choice is simple: move your money today into safer havens, and grow quietly and privately prosperous.

Or you could go with the herd and risk everything....

Adrian Ash
Publisher
The Fleet Street Letter; October 17, 2006 6:02 PM
Anonymous said...: I'd sure enough propose this internet page to my fellows & family . It is very valuable to me besides I'm certain it'll be advantageous to them too. - divorce mediation; October 17, 2006 6:12 PM
Roccman said...: Government Targets American Bloggers As Enemy Propagandists
Military, Homeland Security, Bush White House strategy sharpen knives against anyone critical of the "war on terror"

Paul Joseph Watson/Prison Planet.com | October 17 2006

Recent scientific polls that show around 84% don't believe the government's explanation behind 9/11 and others confirming the fact that support for the war in Iraq is at an all time low have led the Bush administration to sharpen their knives against the new breed of perceived "enemy propagandists, " bloggers, journalists and online activists who dissent against the "war on terror."

As Raw Story reports, CENTCOM announced earlier this year that a team of employees would be "[engaging] bloggers who are posting inaccurate or untrue information, as well as bloggers who are posting incomplete information. "

So when you're wasting your time arguing the finer points of the collapse of Building 7 or the quagmire in Iraq with someone who seems unable to grasp basic principles, your foe could well be sat behind a plush U.S. government desk in a uniform.

CENTCOM is infiltrating blogs and message boards to ensure people, "have the opportunity to read positive stories,"presumably about how Iraq is a wonderful liberated democracy and the war on terror really is about protecting Americans.

The CENTCOM website features a useful section, "What Extremists Are Saying," which provides a full catalogue and showcases the diatribes of US government agents Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi, Ayman al-Zawahiri and their sympathizers - rhetoric that CENTCOM hopes surfers will seek out in order for them to grasp a true understanding for the necessity of bombing the shit out of another broken backed defenseless country in the name of "freedom."

The jaw-dropping hypocrisy of a regime and its military attack arm that has engaged in the most gargantuan of deceit and propaganda purges against the American people then pointing the finger at inquisitive bloggers for "aiding the enemy," is alarming to behold.; October 17, 2006 7:57 PM
Anonymous said...: Nickel is important for jet engines and stainless steel. Steel is important for roads, bridges, buildings. Sure, base metals are not sexy but they are important commodities, right now.

I am long physical gold and silver.

Anybody watching wheat? Food is important also.; October 17, 2006 7:59 PM
Anonymous said...: Whew!! whats that smell?

Thats richard, he just shit his pants after reading that. :); October 17, 2006 8:03 PM
Anonymous said...: That is scary as hell, if you think about it.

So there are military spun stories now being posted all over blogs in an effort to influence public opinion?

Whatever happened to Democracy? Taxpayers are paying for propaganda?

And they can lock anybody up they want to who says anything against the government. (Like I guess I just did).

Scary, scary stuff ... Bush IS one step away from being Hitler.; October 17, 2006 9:08 PM
Anonymous said...: work these numbers... 80% own housing, 40% of those own second houses, or investment housings, 20% OF THE ORIGINAL 100% ARE RENTERS, HOW MANY EMPTY, WITHOUT RENTERS OR BUYERS? 12%! OR INFLATION, IN RENTS, IF 1OO,OOO IN BANK, FOR 5 YEARS, YEILDED 20,000 AND 100,000 AT TPDAYS PRICES OF HOUSING ASKING ,A YEILD, OF 300% OR 300,000, WHEN INTEREST RATES ARE ADJUSTED, TO COMPLY WITH INFLATION, OR DOES 45% APX A YEAR, BALANCE THE DOLLAR?; October 17, 2006 10:35 PM
Anonymous said...: work these numbers... 80% own housing, 40% of those own second houses, or investment housings, 20% OF THE ORIGINAL 100% ARE RENTERS, HOW MANY EMPTY, WITHOUT RENTERS OR BUYERS? 12%! OR INFLATION, IN RENTS, IF 1OO,OOO IN BANK, FOR 5 YEARS, YEILDED 20,000 AND 100,000 AT TPDAYS PRICES OF HOUSING ASKING ,A YEILD, OF 300% OR 300,000, WHEN INTEREST RATES ARE ADJUSTED, TO COMPLY WITH INFLATION, OR DOES 45% APX A YEAR, BALANCE THE DOLLAR?; October 17, 2006 10:35 PM
Anonymous said...: DID I HEAR, COST OF COMPLIANCE, TOMATOES 4.99 A POUND!!!; October 17, 2006 10:39 PM
Anonymous said...: On A Lighter Note, do all of you anons live in AZ?

Do You Live In The Smartest State?
Rankings Based On 21 Education Indicators Arizona dead last among the states

POSTED: 2:40 pm EDT October 17, 2006

PHOENIX -- When it comes to intelligence, a new survey ranks Arizona dead last among the states.

For the second year in a row, an annual smartest-state ranking puts Arizona in the No. 50 spot.

The list is compiled by Morgan Quitno Press, a private research and publishing company in Kansas that also puts out annual rankings on the most livable, safest and healthiest states.

http://www.local6.com/education/10097181/
detail.html; October 17, 2006 10:47 PM
Roccman said...: "When it comes to intelligence, a new survey ranks Arizona dead last among the states."

huh??; October 17, 2006 11:10 PM
Anonymous said...: autofx in Phx

Sorry autofx,
But your not an annon. I could not help myself.

Richard; I posted the url and here is the list.
InfidelWoman; October 17, 2006 11:13 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.local6.com/education/
10097048/detail.html; October 17, 2006 11:13 PM
Anonymous said...: somewhat retired in the warm, what was low ante, low keep, could not make it as a popsicle, gets ugly sometimes!; October 18, 2006 12:43 AM
Anonymous said...: How are banks and lenders able to post gains when their borrowing
cost are rising?

For Example:

SunTrust

"Short-term borrowing costs also increased due to the need to fund earning asset growth, as well as the significant rise in short-term interest rates over the past year."

http://www.theweekly.com/news/
2006/October/17/Sun_Trust.html

Countrywide Financial Corp

"Countrywide's Borrowing Costs Rise as U.S. Home Slump Worsens"

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/
news?pid=20601087&sid=
aJ4tno0iKz9g&refer=home

Bancorp

Sovereign Bancorp third-quarter earnings rise 2 percent

"But higher net interest income was offset by an increase in higher deposit and borrowing costs, the company said."

http://www.timesleader.com/mld/
timesleader/news/local/15781867.htm; October 18, 2006 3:46 AM
Anonymous said...: How are banks and lenders able to post gains when their borrowing
cost are rising?

Another example

National City Corp. said today that it third quarter profit rose 15 percent,

Short-term borrowing costs are currently higher than long-term interest rates, hurting profits at most banks.

http://www.kentucky.com/mld/kentucky/
business/15780558.htm; October 18, 2006 3:50 AM
Roccman said...: "How are banks and lenders able to post gains when their borrowing
cost are rising?"

Oh no - crashing banks=crashing dollar=soaring gold.

Throw in a nuked Iran = $300 oil = soaring gold.

Hey Keefer - you still in CASH CASH CASH??; October 18, 2006 1:43 PM
Anonymous said...: Send an edited copy to your State Law Maker.
The Honorable Paul S. Sarbanes
309 Hart Senate Office Building
Washington DC, 20510

Dear Senator Sarbanes:

As a native Marylander and excellent customer of the Internal Revenue Service, I am writing to ask for your assistance. I have contacted the Immigration and Naturalization Service in an effort to determine the process for becoming an illegal alien and they referred me to you.

My reasons for wishing to change my status from U.S. citizen to illegal alien stem from the bill which was recently passed by the Senate and for which you voted. If my understanding of this bill's provisions is accurate, as an illegal alien who has been in the United States for five years, what I need to do to become a citizen is to pay a $2,000 fine and income taxes for three of the last five years.

I know a good deal when I see one and I am anxious to get the process started before everyone figures it out.

Simply put, those of us who have been here legally have had to pay taxes every year, so I'm excited about the prospect of avoiding two years of the last five years taxes in return for paying a $2,000 fine. Is there any way that I can apply to be illegal retroactively?

This would yield an excellent return for me and my family because we paid heavy taxes in 2004 and 2005 and I estimated a gross savings approximating $72,000. After the fine this would yield me a net savings of $70,000.

In addition, I would reap the other benefits of being an illegal alien such as free health care, avoidance of paying Social Security taxes, buying automobile insurance, serving on jury panels, etc. If you would provide me with an outline of the process to become illegal (retroactively if possible) and copies of the necessary forms, I would be most appreciative.

Thank you for your assistance.
Your Loyal Constituent

URL:

http://www.strangepolitics.com/content/
item/119630.html; October 18, 2006 2:38 PM
Anonymous said...: This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.; October 18, 2006 2:52 PM
Anonymous said...: Months have passed, no bubble has burst.

Are you Housing Panic people bored yet? I am bored.; October 18, 2006 7:00 PM
Anonymous said...: You obviously haven't been paying attention. Read the paper, watch the business news, get a CLUE.; October 18, 2006 8:59 PM
Anonymous said...: " You obviously haven't been paying attention. Read the paper, watch the business news, get a CLUE."

No, what's happening is you're totally hyping things. You see some little statistic like house sales are down 10% and you go ballistic saying the market's totally crashing.

Hello! It's NOT CRASHING ... there are NO GREAT DEALS ... people are holding onto their properties.

$500,000 condos are not selling for $400,000 ... you'd be hard pressed to buy one for $450,000 ... except maybe in Scottsdale or Washington, D.C.

You HP people are losers who never bought when the market was hot and now you are looking for any excuse why it is going down. And it's not going down. It's just leveling out because of the higher interest rates, and it will start going back up again.

The U.S. passed 300,000,000 people. Where are the people going to live? They need houses. So housing will CONTINUE GOING UP.; October 18, 2006 9:03 PM
Anonymous said...: then explain the massive glut of homes that were mass produced in the last 6yrs! New subdivisions full of empty homes across the country, and at hugely inflated prices!; October 18, 2006 9:16 PM
Anonymous said...: "then explain the massive glut of homes that were mass produced in the last 6yrs! New subdivisions full of empty homes across the country, and at hugely inflated prices!"

They overbuilt ... wait a year or so and things will start going back up.

It's not like they're going to cut prices that much just to sell the things. They'll wait it out, otherwise they'll lose money.; October 18, 2006 9:20 PM
Anonymous said...: AOL Laying Off 1,300, Closing Calls Centers in New Mexico and Arizona, Selling Utah Facility

Wednesday October 18, 4:05 pm ET
By Tim Korte, AP Writer

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) -- AOL announced Wednesday it will lay off 1,300 employees by closing call centers in New Mexico and Arizona as part of a previously announced restructuring plan.
AOL, the Time Warner Inc. online unit formerly known as America Online, also plans to sell its call center in Ogden, Utah.

The cuts include 900 layoffs at the Albuquerque call center and 400 jobs at the center in Tucson, Ariz., AOL spokesman Nicholas Graham said. The Arizona and New Mexico call centers each have operated for 10 years.

The closures are part of a restructuring plan that Dulles, Va.-based AOL announced in August. At the time, the company said as many as 5,000 employees would be laid off within six months -- a quarter of its global work force.

"These decisions were very difficult to make, given our long tenure in Albuquerque and Tucson, but they're necessary in terms of the needs of the company and our users," Graham said.; October 18, 2006 9:44 PM
Anonymous said...: "You HP people are losers who never bought when the market was hot and now you are looking for any excuse why it is going down."

ALL THESE GLOOM & DOOM MIN WAGE EARNERS NEED TO GET THEIR HEADS CHECK.

REPEAT... NO HOUSING CRASH! UP 150% and DOWN 15%... STILL UP 135%; October 18, 2006 9:48 PM
Anonymous said...: Even in a worse case scenario if things somehow crashed 30% in the hot markets they already rose 100-200%, so you're still looking at huge gains.

Bottom line is the people who bought on ARMs in the past 2 years might lose money. Everybody else will be even or ahead. Except the HPers who are losing $ by renting.; October 18, 2006 9:53 PM
Anonymous said...: Let's take the outlying areas of Seattle, like Redmond, WA. 5 years ago you could buy a 2000 SQFT house for around $250,000. Today the same house is on the market for around $550,000.

Do you really think the price will drop back down to $250k? No, the price might drop in a worst case scenario down to $400k.

So if you bought 5 years ago would you lose $? No. If you put your $ into cash, would you lose $? Yes.

So HPers are losers.

Somebody who bought for $550k last year might be a big loser.

But everybody else will be even or sitting on gains.; October 18, 2006 9:59 PM
Anonymous said...: Actually, I just checked 1999 2700sqft house selling for $250,000 in Redmond outside Seattle now selling for $600,000.

Not bad, eh? up over $100,000 this year alone.

You HPers are the extreme losers. Even if that house loses 10-20%, the person still made a huge killing.; October 18, 2006 10:11 PM
Anonymous said...: I wouldn't call the bottom of the market until it arrives. Los Angeles dropped around 35% in the 90's and there wasn't the speculative frenzy, the overbuilding, and the leveraged mortgage products there are now.

The fundamentals are saying the market should fall, and it is falling. I also wouldn't call us losers. I sold my 2 rental properties for a nice profit last year at higher prices than I could get now.

We'll see who the losers are after we find out how much the market falls. And, if you guys took out a HELOC and end up upside-down on your homes....well, I guess that makes you the losers.; October 18, 2006 10:13 PM
Anonymous said...: BTW, Denver dropped 40% in the late-80's. Again, no overbuilding, no flipper frenzy and no derivative mortgages.

The bubbles bursting IS HAPPENING NOW. It's all over the news. Wait and see how low it goes before you go shooting your mouth off.; October 18, 2006 10:16 PM
Anonymous said...: "The fundamentals are saying the market should fall, and it is falling. I also wouldn't call us losers. I sold my 2 rental properties for a nice profit last year at higher prices than I could get now."

Okay, the losers are the ones who did nothing and sat on the sidelines renting.; October 18, 2006 10:16 PM
Anonymous said...: These places DID NOT drop 35% or 40%.

It just didn't happen. It dropped maybe 10%-15%. What the heck are you talking about?

Some homes, a few homes, a small percentage of homes, sold for less money during that time, the most undesirable homes, but most of the houses didn't drop. People held on waiting for a better price.

I know plenty of people with houses in L.A. and none of those houses lost 30% of value.; October 18, 2006 10:18 PM
Anonymous said...: "Today the same house is on the market for around $550,000."

There are a lot of houses on the market that have asking prices they will never receive. Follow that house and tell us what the seller gets when he actually closes.; October 18, 2006 10:18 PM
Anonymous said...: Even in a worse case scenario if things somehow crashed 30% in the hot markets they already rose 100-200%, so you're still looking at huge gains.
--------

Agree, that a minus 30% or even 40% of gains is possible, but it will go back up in five years.

That is what I learned here, on HP, from the economic minded posters, and lots of research. So, I bought from a FB who sold short @ 30% off of appraised value, 6 weeks ago, before credit tightened, before interest rates went up more.

Got 5% discount from Realtwhore and 60% ltv. Mort payment, plus insurance, plus taxes are less than rent would be. Only a 30 year fixed for me.

Again, Property values will go back up in five years to set a new high mean.

Oh, and no debt. Bring it on.

Thanks HP.; October 18, 2006 10:21 PM
Anonymous said...: "These places DID NOT drop 35% or 40%."

Sorry, but there are a lot of business articles and academic studies that quoted that figure. I'll have to take their word and not that of your "friends".

Also, in Denver, my father had his house appraised to sell when he was going to move in the early 80's. The appraiser and the realtor priced it at $250k. He sold it 3 years later at $150k.

No depreciation, eh?; October 18, 2006 10:22 PM
Anonymous said...: So here's the not buying the bubble challenge.

Show me a house in Phoenix, or OC, or San Diego or Seattle, or San Francisco that is 30% off its price a year ago.

To get it started right I'll show you some properties around Seattle that have risen more than 100% in the last 7 years.

http://www.zillow.com/Charts.htm?chartDuration=10years&zpid=49107299
http://www.zillow.com/Charts.htm?chartDuration=10years&zpid=48716054
http://www.zillow.com/Charts.htm?chartDuration=10years&zpid=48758516

See, basically people sitting on the sidelines are extreme losers.; October 18, 2006 10:23 PM
Anonymous said...: "Even in a worse case scenario if things somehow crashed 30% in the hot markets they already rose 100-200%, so you're still looking at huge gains."

If your house goes up 100%, and then falls 50%, how much ahead are you? ZERO. People who bought real early with normal debt will come out okay and still ahead. But certainly not with the rediculous gains they have made as-of today.; October 18, 2006 10:24 PM
Anonymous said...: "Show me a house in Phoenix, or OC, or San Diego or Seattle, or San Francisco that is 30% off its price a year ago."

Give it a little more time. Prices are falling and it is a FACT. Only an idiot buys into a falling market.; October 18, 2006 10:25 PM
Anonymous said...: Here's a little property in Phoenix now worth 10x what it was 10 years ago.

http://www.zillow.com/Charts.htm?chartDuration=10years&zpid=7841557

Losers much?; October 18, 2006 10:29 PM
Anonymous said...: "Here's a little property in Phoenix now worth 10x what it was 10 years ago."

LMAO...get a clue.

I looked up my friends house in Denver that he just sold for $460,000 3 weeks ago. Your rediculous Zillow garbage calculator valued it a $671,000.

http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?city=Denver&state=CO&zprop=13352050

LOL@you!!!!!!!; October 18, 2006 10:34 PM
Anonymous said...: "Give it a little more time. Prices are falling and it is a FACT. Only an idiot buys into a falling market."

It's NOT going to fall that much. How would prices fall 30%?

The FED would never allow that to happen. It's just not going to happen.

And even if it did, people who bought 5 years ago or more would be fine. Look at the graphs. Things are up 100%, 200%, 300%, 1000%, in the past 5-10 years.

Not a worry.; October 18, 2006 10:34 PM
Anonymous said...: "I looked up my friends house in Denver that he just sold for $460,000 3 weeks ago. Your rediculous Zillow garbage calculator valued it a $671,000."

Your friend is an extreme loser. He should have held out. He lost a ton of cash because he was such a moron.; October 18, 2006 10:35 PM
Anonymous said...: The real losers are people like you who actually believe this Zillow crap.; October 18, 2006 10:36 PM
Anonymous said...: "Your friend is an extreme loser. He should have held out. He lost a ton of cash because he was such a moron."

LOL! Prices were NEVER that high in that neighborhood...NEVER! I know since I've lived there for nearly 20 year. You are a total fool to beleive that Zillow crap.

What a FOOL you are!!!!

LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11; October 18, 2006 10:38 PM
Anonymous said...: You're a total moron. Look at ABC real estate sales histories.

Vine with a couple hundred SQFT more sold for $700k+ in July ...

Your friend is a total moron.

http://www.realestateabc.com/home-values/CO/Denver/6E8E7978906468025F85C9C02AD30C1F; October 18, 2006 10:39 PM
Anonymous said...: "Vine with a couple hundred SQFT more sold for $700k+ in July ..."

LOL...50% more SQFT, 2 extra beds, 2 extra baths..... Oh, and it has a workshop above the garage...

I live 2 blocks away.

LOL...you are killing me...LOL!!!!; October 18, 2006 10:48 PM
Anonymous said...: 1 extra bed...sorry champ.

LMAO!!!!!!!; October 18, 2006 10:50 PM
Anonymous said...: No, you are killing me. Your poor friend got his ass taken to the cleaners on that house.

Is everybody in your neighborhood so dumb? Maybe I should come there and invest.; October 18, 2006 10:54 PM
Anonymous said...: Jeez infidel, dont feed the trolls.; October 18, 2006 10:55 PM
Anonymous said...: FED would never allow that to happen.

Yea, The FED CAres about USA Real Estate appreciation...Right.; October 18, 2006 10:56 PM
Anonymous said...: E 373 S Vine St | 0.1 mi 07/02/2006 | $425,000 | 1928 2 | 1 924 | $460 | 6,240
K 338 S High St | 0.1 mi 06/03/2006 | $625,000 | 1892 4 | 2 2,145 | $291 | 4,680

So how come 373 Vine St. sold on 7/2/2006 for $425,000 and 338 S High St sold on 6/3/2006 for $625,000?

Are you saying that things have dropped so much in a few months your friend had to taken $450,000? He should have waited.; October 18, 2006 10:57 PM
Anonymous said...: This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.; October 18, 2006 10:58 PM
Anonymous said...: Oh, and BTW the reason I trust Zillow is because I've found it is pretty accurate.

I have followed over 10 house sales with it so far and it's always been within 40-50,000 of the actual prices.; October 18, 2006 10:59 PM
Anonymous said...: Thanks Mort,
I guess I really got to some of the REIC Trolls and all they can do is name call and defend the FED Bank.
rotflmao
iw; October 18, 2006 11:05 PM
grim said...: New edition of "Price Reduced!" up on my blog for all those interested in the NY/NY metro area market:

http://njrereport.com/index.php/2006/10/18/price-reduced-101-1015/

MLS Town OLP LP % Reduced $ Reduced
2282353 Wayne Twp $33,900 $16,000 52.8% $17,900

2323221 Moonachie Boro $13,500 $8,500 37.0% $5,000

2295061 Hopatcong Boro $249,900 $179,000 28.4% $70,900

2270364 Roselle Boro $480,000 $345,000 28.1% $135,000

2279379 West Milford Twp $875,000 $629,900 28.0% $245,100

2328324 West Orange Twp $369,900 $269,900 27.0% $100,000

2293209 Paterson City $205,000 $149,900 26.9% $55,100

2278542 Roseland Boro $1,489,900 $1,100,000 26.2% $389,900

2325537 Plainfield City $389,900 $289,900 25.6% $100,000

2278161 Morristown Town $799,000 $599,000 25.0% $200,000

2270544 Berkeley Heights Twp $599,900 $449,999 25.0% $149,901; October 18, 2006 11:06 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith needs to call Truly Nolen as the tribe is really infested with REIC pests today.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll; October 18, 2006 11:09 PM
Anonymous said...: Troll Eradication

* Ignore it
* Brand it
* Mock it
* Confuse it

Ignoring

The key to trolls is their social inadequacy - once rumbled, they quickly go rabid - and their lack of intelligence. Let's face it, no intelligent person would bother. This means that any response is a response to a sad thicko; why bother?

There is no better way to shift a troll from a newsgroup than simply to ignore it. Sometimes, that is not possible; perhaps it has succeeeded in upsetting people.
Branding

Never address the troll ("Troll Off ...") as any direct response simply feeds it. Search for the troll by name or slogan. Send a message, headed

"Troll Alert - [troll's name]"

to the group, with text along these lines:

Spiro@peace.love (not its real name) is a troll.
It regularly frequents at least twenty news groups,
including many rabid/sex/racist groups.
Normally, it starts off with reasonable, even witty lines,
but rapidly drifts into lies, abuse and stupidity.

Check its details at Google Groups.

It is a sad creature, deserving of pity, not anger.
Any direct response simply feeds it,
but it will go away if you ignore it.

The key to success is a cool, measured, accurate posting. In my experience, unless the group is silly (in which case, they deserve a troll or two) this never fails.
Mocking

If you really must address the troll, give it this URL: http://www.flayme.com/troll/trollone.html
(It really is totally harmless: just a well designed .gif ...)

But in general, talk about it, not to it (but the best advice is still to ignore its posts).
Confusion

The average troll is pretty thick, so confusing them is fairly easy, and also serves to unite the rest against the troll.

"Sorry, but that'll lower your overall score on my Troll-o-Meter to 4.6" Curtis Desjardins response to one troll banished it instantly, and I still laugh every time I think about it; he's left no room for the idiot to come back for more.
Trolls - if they had brains, they just might be dangerous!

Attention HPrs,
I am changing my name, as it has been
defiled and tainted by trolls and anon flamers. I will be back to play another day. I have been home sick, and tomorrow it is back to the salt mines anyway.
It has been fun HP.
TTFN
IW; October 18, 2006 11:14 PM
Anonymous said...: infidel, Maybe you should log in as a blogger, thats not hard to figure out. stupid bitch!; October 18, 2006 11:14 PM
Anonymous said...: Price reduced doesn't count. Price based upon comps and last sales is more accurate.

But saying things are down 50% because some crapbox selling is selling for 1/2 off isn't accurate.

What is that thing anyway for $16,000?; October 18, 2006 11:15 PM
Anonymous said...: Now somebody's impersonating me. Bad person.; October 18, 2006 11:15 PM
Anonymous said...: Fuck you not buying the bubble, FUCK YOU!!!! AND ALL YOU FUCKING TROLLS!! FUCK YOU!!!; October 18, 2006 11:17 PM
Anonymous said...: Don't blame me -- somebody's impersonating me now.

Must be a moron loser Republiscum.; October 18, 2006 11:21 PM
Anonymous said...: BTW there is nothing in the world worse than stinky hole, not even nuclear weapons.; October 18, 2006 11:22 PM
Anonymous said...: This is kindof funny. On here if you troll, people will actually pretend to be you and troll some more.

Maybe I should get a patent on that.; October 18, 2006 11:27 PM
Anonymous said...: I love this site, I think keith needs to shut off all anonomous posts (me included) and make everyone log in correctly. I'm going to log in tommorrow with a new name.

not buying the bubble, Did you really call me a stupid bitch?; October 18, 2006 11:29 PM
Anonymous said...: " iw said...

I love this site, I think keith needs to shut off all anonomous posts (me included) and make everyone log in correctly. I'm going to log in tommorrow with a new name.

not buying the bubble, Did you really call me a stupid bitch? "

No, but how do I know it's even you posting anymore? Nobody can tell. Maybe I need to open a blogger account. But then I'd probably be hunted down and killed by all the HPers who aren't making a killing in Real Estate.; October 18, 2006 11:31 PM