HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with an Attitude Problem, 2005 - 2008: BUBBLETALK - September thread to discuss the epic housing meltdown underway

September 29, 2006

BUBBLETALK - September thread to discuss the epic housing meltdown underway

Post housing bubble articles here, talk about off-subject topics (in other words, don't threadjack the following threads) and have a good chat. Above all, KEEP IT CLEAN and have fun

499 comments:

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Anonymous said...: In the past two years the fed has been more worry about back dating of stocks and keeping REFCO a secret then the consequnce of the effect of tight money supply.

We all know what effects a tight money supply has on housing market.

Watch the video.

http://www.businessjive.com/nss/
darkside.html; September 13, 2006 2:21 AM
Anonymous said...: Normal Market -

In a normal market, there is fairly a large number of homes available and an average number of buyers. This market does not necessarily favor the buyer or the seller. A seller may not have as many offers on their home, but he or she may not be desperate to sell either. Again, it is the buyer's responsibility to be prepared. During a normal market, the chances to negotiate are higher than in a hot market. As a buyer, you can expect to make offers at lower than the asking price and negotiate a price at least somewhat less than what the sellers are asking.; September 13, 2006 2:54 AM
Anonymous said...: When will the tsunami of foreclosures hit?

With millions of adjustable-rate mortgages about to reset this fall, experts expect a wave of foreclosures by Americans in every income bracket. Here's why they could soar in late 2006 and beyond.

Those easy-mortgage chickens are coming home to roost.

This fall the adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) that millions of Americans took out during the recent housing boom will be reset, and many homeowners will see their monthly mortgage payments shoot up by as much as 20%. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, of all mortgages financed in 2005, 36% were ARMs -- the highest ever.

This is a matter of concern because ARMs are typically initially made at a lower rate and then increase after a fixed period of time, usually one, three, five, seven or 10 years, after which the rate will more closely reflect current rates. As interest rates increase, mortgage payments increase. Between $400 billion and $500 billion in ARMs are due to be reset by the end of 2006. The following year will be even more dramatic, when more than $1.5 trillion will be reset.

For many Americans, this is scary news, if hardly unexpected. Everyone who took out an ARM or another equally appealing low-rate mortgage over the past few years to buy a house, at times beyond their means, knew that someday their payments could balloon. Those home buyers may have thought they would be able to flip their houses quickly and avoid the rise in their mortgage payments. But now, many of them are finding themselves stuck in a house they may soon no longer be able to afford, and, as the real estate market peters out, there's little they can do about it.

http://realestate.msn.com/buying/
Articlebusweek.aspx?cp-documentid=
808749; September 13, 2006 3:14 AM
Anonymous said...: olbermann roasts bush again

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19hzs0voiyQ; September 13, 2006 11:06 AM
Anonymous said...: http://tinyurl.com/7q93t

American Heroshemia Fatwa

This is the Fatwa, or the Religious Order, which makes it a mission in the name of law, and Allah to bomb us with nuclear weapons.
They say the time is now here, by year’s end.

TARGET CITIES

NY, DC, ALASKA, MIAMI, DALLAS, CHICAGO, LA, Las Vegas

The goal is to kill 4 to 10 million us people.
The nuclear bombs are here, smuggled through Mex/US border, and the nuclear scientist/religious extremist in charge is from Miami and was educated here.

Houses go Boom?; September 13, 2006 2:49 PM
Anonymous said...: Here is the most recent info, Sept 6, 06.
American Hiroshima

By Mark Alexander

September 05, 2006

On Tuesday, 29-year-old Omeed Aziz Popal, recently returned to the U.S. from Afghanistan, went on a rampage in his SUV in a heavily Jewish area of San Francisco, killing one man and sending 14 other victims to the hospital, seven in critical condition. According to one eyewitness, “The SUV struck two people in front of the Jewish Community Center... on California Street, a few blocks from where the rampage ended. Blood covered the sidewalk in front of the center’s gift store entrance.”

Last month in Seattle, you may recall, Naveed Afzal Haq shot six Jews, killing one, at a Jewish Federation office.

On 3 March, at the University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill, a 22-year-old Iranian, Mohammed Reza Taheri-azar, went on a killing spree in his SUV to “punish the government of the United States” and “avenge the deaths of Muslims around the world.” When making his initial statement in court, Taheri-azar expressed gratitude “for the opportunity to spread the will of Allah.”

Now, contrary to what the apologists on the cut-and-run Left would have us believe, the common thread in these three murderous onslaughts is not Jews, it’s not SUVs, and it’s not the difficulties of Muslims coping with life in America. The common thread is Islamic fascism, an ideology that is dead set on our destruction.

The common thread in these three murderous onslaughts is not Jews, it’s not SUVs, and it’s not the difficulties of Muslims coping with life in America.

One of the foremost of these Islamic fascists, Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadi-Nejad, recently claimed that the Holocaust was a hoax dreamed up by the Allies and their Zionist cohorts. In addition, he blames the state of Israel for all that’s wrong in the Arab world: “The peoples of the Middle East have also borne the brunt of the Holocaust. By raising the necessity of settling the survivors of the Holocaust in the land of Palestine, they have created a permanent threat in the Middle East in order to rob the people of the region of the opportunities to achieve progress... The collective conscience of the world is indignant over the daily atrocities by the Zionist occupiers, destruction of homes and farms, killing of children, assassinations and bombardments.”

Thus, as far as the Islamists are concerned, Zionists and the West are in the same boat. “God willing, with the force of God behind it,” Ahmadi-Nejad has said, “we shall soon experience a world without the United States and Zionism.”

Now, as Thursday’s United Nations-imposed deadline for Iran to halt its nuclear fuel production has come and gone, the rogue state remains defiant. “[The West] should know the Iranian nation will not yield to pressure and not accept any violation of its rights,” said Ahmadi-Nejad. “Arrogant powers are against Iran’s peaceful nuclear progress.”

Anticipating Iran’s response, the Bush administration has come out swinging and—we are pleased to say—building on the President’s Islamic fascist theme.

Speaking at the annual convention of the American Legion, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld recounted the history of World War II and the Cold War, warning against those who counsel appeasement and retreat today: “I recount that history because, once again, we face similar challenges in efforts to confront the rising threat of a new type of fascism, but some seem not to have learned history’s lessons,” the Secretary said. Indeed, just as Adolf Hitler would not be appeased as he pressed his grand plan for war, so also today’s fascists will find only encouragement in the West’s accommodations.

“With the growing lethality and the increasing availability of weapons,” Rumsfeld went on to ask, “can we truly afford to believe that somehow, some way, vicious extremists can be appeased?”

On the 67th anniversary of Nazi Germany’s invasion of Poland, we cannot again be lulled into the false comfort of complacency and appeasement against a new fascist foe.

In a policy address of his own at Nebraska’s Offutt Air Force Base this week, Vice President Dick Cheney voiced the same theme. “This is not an enemy that can be ignored, or negotiated with, or appeased,” he said, “and every retreat by civilized nations is an invitation to further violence against us. Men who despise freedom will attack freedom in any part of the world, and so responsible nations have a duty to stay on the offensive, together, to remove this threat.” Today, as the world marks the 67th anniversary of Nazi Germany’s invasion of Poland, we cannot again be lulled into the false comfort of complacency and appeasement against a new fascist foe."

What, specifically, is the threat posed by these Islamic fascists? Is the threat limited to the occasional believer mowing down a few American Jews with an SUV?

Of course not. Nor is the threat limited to the sort of mass murder we witnessed five years ago this month in New York, the Pentagon and a field in Pennsylvania.

Rather, as this column has stated time and again, the real threat posed by Islamic fascism comes in the form of a nuclear device in the hands of a terrorist surrogate. In the present case, the Cold War’s deterrent doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) does not apply. A nuclear strike against the United States won’t come in the form of a missile launch from silos on the other side of the world, or a submarine lurking off our shores. Rather, as a recent RAND study speculates, a nuclear terrorist attack against the U.S. will come from a cargo container aboard a freighter arrived in a U.S. port, or, alternately, transported across the porous southern border with the same mechanisms used to smuggle tens of thousands of illegal aliens every year.

Hamid Mir, the famed Pakistani journalist who obtained the only post-9/11 interviews with Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, believes a nuclear attack against the United States is on the horizon, to be coordinated by the cleric-fascist state of Iran and its terrorist surrogate, al-Qa’ida. “Al-Qa’ida and Iran have a long, secret relationship,” Mir says, and they’ve named their plans for a nuclear attack on the U.S. — using nuclear devices that Mir believes they already possess — “American Hiroshima.”

The association between Iran and al-Qa’ida, Mir says, dates to June 1996, when bin Laden joined other jihadist leaders in Tehran to discuss their goals. Others in attendance included Muhammad Ali Ahmad of al-Qa’ida, Imad al-Alami and Mustafa al-Liddawi of Hamas, Ahmad Jibril of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, Egyptian Islamic Jihad’s Ahmad Salah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s Ramadan Shallah, Hizballah’s Imad Mugniyah and Abdallah Ocalan of the Kurdish People Party. The meeting, says Mir, produced the “Committee of Three,” consisting of bin Laden, Salah and Mugniyah, who would be responsible for the “coordination, planning and execution of attacks” on the U.S. and Israel. Shortly thereafter, on 23 August 1996, bin Laden issued his fatwa, “Declaration of War on Americans Occupying the Country of the Two Holy Places.”

In one interview with Mir, bin Laden boasts, “It is not difficult [to obtain tactical nuclear devices], not if you have contacts in Russia with other militant groups. They are available for $10 million and $20 million.” At the time, bin Laden claimed already to be in possession of such devices, and Mir believes that they may already be forward-deployed within the United States. While this information is, of course, not confirmable, and may be no more than enemy misinformation, it is plausible.

For these reasons—the nature of our enemy’s threat and his determination to see our destruction—the only applicable defense is the doctrine of pre-emption. Thursday, the same day Iran rejected the deadline for ending its enrichment of uranium, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported finding traces of highly enriched uranium at an Iranian nuclear plant. Uranium of this variety is used only for the production of nuclear weapons. Our only strategic option and our best hope of averting a nuclear attack, though it’s certainly no guarantee, is pre-emptive warfare against our enemies. As the five-year anniversary of 9/11 approaches, let us be mindful of Islamic fascism’s deadly determination. Let us match it with a deadly determination of our own.

Quote of the week:

“Unless we in the West adapt more quickly than do canny Islamic terrorists in this constantly evolving war, cease our internecine fighting and stop forgetting what we’ve learned about our enemies—there will be disasters to come far worse than Sept. 11.” —Victor Davis Hanson

On cross-examination:

“Somehow, despite contrary facts that are palpably clear in the historic record, [American and European leaders] have managed to convince themselves and the world that the most terrible wars of the 20th century occurred because nations didn’t do enough talking to resolve their differences [when in] fact, they occurred because shortsighted, peace-minded leaders allow[ed] good intentions and wishful thinking to take the place of an accurate assessment of the identity and intentions of their adversaries.” —Alan Keyes; September 13, 2006 5:24 PM
Anonymous said...: Hey "American Hiroshima" posters:

We're far more likely to be hit by one of own american cons since they're the ones who have committed ALL domestic terror besides 9/11. McVeigh, Rudolph, abortion clinic bombings, doctor shooters, cross-burners, KKK- all CONSERVATIVES.

Not to mention that the only people savage enough to actually USE nukes were AMERICANS.

Look in the mirror and you'll see the true terrorists of the world.; September 13, 2006 7:35 PM
Anonymous said...: I believe the bubble is about to pop.. If you look at the news stories on Housing Bubble Watch, you can see a definate trend in articles supporting a bursting bubble.; September 13, 2006 9:13 PM
Anonymous said...: Look in the mirror and you'll see the true terrorists of the world.

Are you one of the 'sleepers' waiting?; September 13, 2006 10:41 PM
Anonymous said...: Yea, no-brainer is right...you'd have to have no brain to believe this garbage.

No Closing Cost Mortgage Advertising Is A Lie!

The truth is mortgage companies don't "waive" or "cover" closing costs. They "offset" them with the kickback income they get from charging you a much higher rate than you qualify for.

This is called Yield Spread Premium overcharging. The lender pays the mortgage company lots of money, that part of the ad is true. Of course, the reason why is where the deception comes in.

So Flat Fee or a No Cost loan ads should signal you the rate you'll get is not just inflated, but "hyper" inflated. Since even on loans where the consumer pays the costs at closing, the rate is inflated for extra profit.

This typical Yield Spread Premium overcharging amounts to .5% higher for you and thousands of extra dollars for the company. With the No Cost or Flat Fee companies, they plan on raising the rate not the typical .5% to insure their profit, but an additional amount to cover all the actual third party closing costs as well.

This hyper rate inflation could add another .5% or more to the rate you could have reasonably expected.

Everyone who works on your loan is going to get paid by you at closing by one of three ways: 1) either by a one-time fee listed on your settlement statement, or 2) by the lender rebate created by charging you a higher interest rate, or 3) a combination of the two.

Remember this: You Always Pay the Costs for Every Mortgage...you and nobody else.

http://www.bestsyndication.com/
?q=091106_mortgage-loan-no-closing
-fees-points-penalties.htm; September 14, 2006 4:31 AM
Anonymous said...: How To Read A Wholesale Lender Rate Sheet and Beat Mortgage Banks & Brokers At Their Own Game

the vast majority of borrowers pay yield spread premiums - on the order of 85 to 90 percent of all transactions.

Moreover, the average amount of yield spread premiums is quite substantial, on the order of $1,850 per transaction, making these payments the most important single source of revenue for mortgage brokers.

In other words, contrary to the Department's assumptions, yield spread premiums are not an optional form of financing made available to a limited number of borrowers with special needs.

Rather these payments constitute by far the largest source of compensation for mortgage brokers and are imposed on almost all borrowers who obtain mortgages or refinancings through this segment of the industry.

The Governments own numbers, which are grossly understated I might add, say this Yield Spread and Service Release premium overcharging costs American home owners $16,000,000,000 a year...each any every year!

National Ave. SURVEY CONVENTIONAL MORTGAGES
30 Yr
6.51%

In our example, we will quote our borrower a 30 year rate that carries a lock period of 30 days. If we are seeking to earn only a 1.0% origination fee and NO yield spread premium (back end fee), we will quote the rate of 6.000%.

According to the rate sheet, 6.000% actually costs .164% Discount payable to the Lender not Integrity First Mortgage.

On this rate sheet, 6.000% is as close to par pricing as we can get. As you can see the next higher rate, 6.125% creates .267% of Yield Spread Premium and that’s not good. (YSP is shown in (.267) parenthesis).

So with this example, look at the costs for a loan at 6.00% with us.

Rate: 6.000%, $200,000 Mortgage Loan x 1.0% Broker Origination Fee + 0.164 Discount = $200,000 x 1.164% = $2,328.00

Now we will show how everyone else does it! First realize that banks and brokers don’t usually quote you the rate you’ll close with…they bait-and-switch with low-ball rates and artificially lowered closing costs to get you to apply with them.

Then on closing day, the rates and costs are higher than you expected, but they claim their Good Faith Estimate was in deed just that…an estimate. You’ve got the moving van idling in parking lot, so you sign.

They count on the fact you are painted into a corner and have but one option…sign.

How do I know this to be true? One reason is 15 years of asking folks, “How did your last loan go…any surprises at closing?”

About 85% of those folks answer, Yes to that one.

Second, every closing exit poll conducted by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac show the same results.

But the most compelling reason is up above on HSH Survey data. It shows for the week ending Mar 10, 2006, the National Average interest rate on CLOSED Loans was 6.51%!

http://www.bestsyndication.com/
?q=090706_wholesale-mortgage-
lenders-getting-low-interest-
rates.htm; September 14, 2006 4:38 AM
Anonymous said...: The other day I went to look at a family house for sale and found a market gone wrong.

The doctor was getting a divorce. The property was 25 minutes from a ski resort featuring some passable black-diamond runs. It came with frontage on a lake with a clean, sandy bottom. Several kids were lying amid the water toys on the carpet. They didn't look up from the big-screen television they were watching as we ambled through. It seemed like the usual real estate picture.

But it wasn't. The house was about to be auctioned by the bank. And even the bank was asking a high price for the market because it wanted to get back the money it had lent to the owners. The house might be beside the water. The doctor was underwater.

Many more Americans may find themselves in the doctor's situation. Earlier in the year and over the summer, there was a lot of discussion about a soft landing for residential real estate. Now there also is talk of a harder landing.

But not all is bad.

Just last week, Inc. magazine named RealtyTrac to its list of the country's 500 closely held companies with the fastest growing revenue.

Next year might be a good one for RealtyTrac for the usual reasons: rising interest rates, energy prices, the end of the recovery phase of the business cycle.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.
com/opinion/284965_
shlaes14.html; September 14, 2006 6:34 AM
Anonymous said...: Paul Krugman

mms://media2.bloomberg.com/
cache/vF12v4XdUj8k.asf

or

http://www.forsakencraft.
com/main.html; September 14, 2006 7:05 AM
Anonymous said...: Naked Fines

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has received a deluge of requests to amend short-selling rules it enacted just two years ago as the New York Stock Exchange continues its efforts to enforce existing regulations.

JPMorgan Chase (nyse: JPM - news - people ) has become the fifth bank to be censured and fined by the NYSE's regulatory division for violations of trading rules meant to curb abusive short-selling.

The New York bank agreed to pay $400,000, without admitting or denying guilt. NYSE Regulation said Tuesday that JPMorgan violated numerous rules related to its handling of stock short-sales, a strategy in which the trader is supposed to borrow the shares, or at least find a broker who says he has them and is willing to lend them, before he makes the trade.

NYSE Reg says JPMorgan violated Regulation SHO, a rule put into effect in January 2005 by the SEC to curb abusive trading practices by limiting the ability of traders to do what's called a naked short-sale, which is selling a stock they haven't borrowed.

The exchange's enforcement arm says JPMorgan inaccurately marked sell orders, submitted inaccurate trading data and transacted short sales without reasonable grounds to believe the stocks could be borrowed. JPMorgan also had programming and systems errors that caused many of the problems.

A naked short-sale frequently results in those shares not being delivered to the buyer within the mandated three-day window. This is called a "failure to deliver," and despite assertions by some that the problem is not pervasive, it is enough of a problem to have attracted the increasing attention of the SEC and market regulators.

In July, Citigroup (nyse: C - news - people ), Daiwa Securities, Goldman Sachs (nyse: GS - news - people ) and Credit Suisse collectively paid $1.3 million for similar violations. They were the first firms to be slapped with a NYSE censure since the enactment of Reg SHO.

Daiwa paid the heftiest fine of those four, $400,000. NYSE Reg said one of the firm's proprietary trading desks transacted 103,000 short-sales without locating the shares to be borrowed. Also, the NYSE said, Daiwa's stock loan desk didn't document compliance with the stock locate requirements.

Critics complain that the enforcement efforts to date lack sharp enough teeth to discourage future abuses.

JPMorgan's fine looks miniscule compared to its $160 billion market capitalization. Through June, the bank had reported $1.7 billion in revenue from equity markets activities. A bank spokesman had no comment Tuesday.

"By levying a fine that is but a tiny fraction of the ill-gotten gains, the SEC is pinning a 'Kick Me' sign on the backside of the rule of law," says Patrick Byrne, CEO of Overstock.com (nasdaq: OSTK - news - people ), and big activist for reform in trading rules. "But the SEC is not monolithic: Though the brass are mostly captured regulators, in the rank and file, and at the highest echelons, I believe there are people who understand the gravity of the situation and who want to do something about it."

The SEC, recognizing continued problems with persistent and large trade failures in a few hundred stocks, is currently gathering comments about proposed amendments that would close some loopholes. The comment period is set to end early next week, and the agency has posted nearly 200 letters on its Web site urging reform.

Among the comment letters received so far is one from Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr., who earlier this year signed into law stiff penalties for brokerage firms that didn't immediately report failed trades in the stocks of Utah companies to the state's division of securities.

The law was written for the benefit of Salt Lake City-based Overstock.com, a heavily shorted stock that has had persistently appeared on Nasdaq's lists of stocks that fail to deliver since Reg SHO was put in force. Gov. Jon Huntsman backed down during the summer after an intense lobbying effort by Wall Street firms, who complained that compliance would be too costly and cumbersome. Utah won't enforce the law until next June.

But in his comment letter, dated Sept. 8, the governor urged amendments to Reg SHO, including shorter trade settlement deadlines and daily disclosure of trade failures. "Restoring investor confidence requires both additional enforcement attention by the SEC and additional regulatory changes," the governor wrote.

The current rules don't require the brokers to fix the trades by buying shares to cover their short positions after 13 days, they merely say that if the trades aren't fixed, the broker can't do any more short-sales in that security without borrowing or arranging to borrow the stock.

The Depository Trust & Clearing Corp., the New York clearing house that is owned by the big brokerage houses and whose mission is to settle and clear the lion's share of the daily stock transactions that occur in the markets, says it has no power to force brokers to fix the trades either, a fact that also frustrates critics of the current system.

"We don’t have any power or legal authority to regulate or stop short-selling, naked or otherwise," the DTCC says on its Web site. "We also have no power to force member firms to close out or resolve fails to deliver."

Brad Niswonger, a senior vice president for brokerage firm Robert W. Baird Co., complained in a July letter to the SEC, "It seems like every day the SEC fines someone for fraudulent stock transactions, but they walk away after collecting their fee without completing the transaction by making these players buy in the illegal short positions."

A Canadian brokerage firm also complained to the SEC about its experience trying to settle its purchases of shares in Overstock.com.

http://www.businessjive.com
/nss/darkside.html

The broker, Research Capital of Toronto, says it tried to buy shares of Overstock to satisfy customer orders but has never received the actual shares it bought, even after 39 attempts to force the brokers who sold it the stock to produce the shares.

Research Capital says this has been going on since February 2006. "The failed deliver has simply been replaced with another delivery commitment which also fails," the brokerage says.

NYSE Regulation says it has been reviewing broker firm compliance with the Reg SHO rules as part of its annual examinations, and more rule breakers could be exposed.

"This is definitely an area of focus for us," said a spokesman for the regulatory arm of the Big Board.

http://www.forbes.com/
business/2006/09/13/
naked-shorts-jp-morgan-
chase_biz_cx_0913naked.html
?partner=moreover; September 14, 2006 7:37 AM
Anonymous said...: Gold price and the affect of the housing bubble ...

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/commodities/10308866.html

Gold investors unnerved by the recent downdraft may just want to sit tight.

That's because investment demand could boost bullion prices to over $700 an ounce by year-end, according to the Gold Survey 2006 -- Update 1, published Thursday morning by London-based specialty consulting firm GFMS.

If the authors' predictions prove correct, gold prices will rise about 17% above Wednesday's close of $596.50 an ounce for December-dated futures. It would also place the yellow metal back into territory not seen since last spring, when the spot price hit a 26-year high of $725.25 on May 12.

Contributing factors, the GFMS report asserts, include a "bleak outlook" for the U.S. dollar due to a "problematic U.S. housing market," an "extremely volatile [Middle East] contributing to a general unease," as well as the "perceived threat of global terrorism," which should all contribute gold's allure as a safe haven.; September 14, 2006 12:48 PM
Anonymous said...: Are you one of the 'sleepers' waiting?

Well, are you????; September 14, 2006 4:51 PM
Anonymous said...: Lawyer Says Smith Tried to Revive Son
Sep 14 7:48 AM US/Eastern

By JESSICA ROBERTSON
Associated Press Writer

NASSAU, Bahamas

Anna Nicole Smith frantically tried to revive her stricken son and had to be sedated after he died, her attorney said Wednesday. Authorities termed the death "suspicious" and said criminal charges could be filed.

Daniel Smith died Sunday while visiting his mother, a reality TV star and former Playboy playmate, in her hospital room three days after she gave birth to a baby girl.

"The devastation and grief over Daniel's sudden death coupled with the sedation has been so extreme that Anna Nicole experienced memory loss of the event," attorney Michael Scott said.

The chief inspector of the Bahamas coroner's office on Wednesday called the death of the 20-year-old Smith "suspicious" and a formal inquiry that could lead to criminal charges was scheduled for next month.

Police also revealed that a third person was in the hospital room at the time of the death.

But Scott said that the third person was another one of Anna Nicole Smith's attorneys, Howard K. Stern.

He said Anna Nicole Smith and Stern continued efforts to revive Smith even after he had been proclaimed dead by staff at Doctors Hospital in Nassau.

"Anna Nicole was so distraught at the loss of Daniel that she refused to leave his side and it was necessary to sedate her in order to check her out of the hospital," Scott read from a prepared statement.

He said she suffered memory loss and that it "was necessary for Howard to tell Anna again that Daniel had passed away," he added.

Authorities said they believe they know what killed Smith but were waiting for a toxicology report to confirm the findings.

Anna Nicole Smith, who went to the U.S. Supreme Court this year to sue for an inheritance, was in seclusion in the Bahamas with family and friends, Scott said. The identity of the newborn girl's father has not been publicly disclosed.

"You would expect any parent who sustained this kind of loss" to seek seclusion, Scott said.

A jury inquest, which will be open to the public, is scheduled to start Oct. 23, and Anna Nicole Smith will be required to attend, coroner Linda P. Virgill said.

"Whenever there is a suspicious death we would have an inquest to determine how the person died," Bradley Neely, chief inspector of the coroner's office, told Associated Press Television News.

The autopsy and toxicology reports will not be made public until the inquest is held, to avoid prejudicing the jury, Virgill said.

Jurors will meet in a courtroom inside a weathered, pink-pastel judicial building in the seaside capital, Nassau. If the inquest, which will be open to the public, determines a crime was committed, the case would be sent to the attorney general's office.

Virgill said there was no sign of physical injury to Smith, who was seen helping make his 38-year-old mother comfortable before he died. Anna Nicole Smith noticed him slumped in a chair Sunday morning and called for help. Hospital staff unsuccessfully tried CPR and other measures to revive him.

Scott dismissed media reports that Anna Nicole Smith's son had antidepressants or other drugs in his system.

"It's sheer speculation. It's irresponsible speculation, may I point out," he told reporters.

Ferguson, the assistant police commissioner, told the AP that no drug paraphernalia or traces of illegal drugs were found on Daniel Smith, in the hospital room or near the room.

Police believe Daniel Smith went directly to Doctors Hospital in Nassau after arriving in the Bahamas by plane, Ferguson said.

Daniel Smith was the son of Anna Nicole and Bill Smith, who married in 1985 and divorced two years later. The son had small roles in her movies "Skyscraper" and "To the Limit." He also appeared on the E! reality series "The Anna Nicole Show."

Anna Nicole Smith married Texas oil tycoon J. Howard Marshall II in when she was 26 and he was 89. He died the following year.

She then feuded with Marshall's son, Pierce Marshall, over her entitlement to the tycoon's estate before he died in June at age 67.

Smith won a $474 million judgment, which was cut to about $89 million, and eventually reduced to zero. In May, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Smith could continue to pursue her claim in federal courts in California, despite a Texas state court ruling that Marshall's youngest son was the sole heir.

___

Associated Press writer Andrew Selsky contributed to this report from San Juan, Puerto Rico.; September 14, 2006 4:54 PM
Anonymous said...: "The broker, Research Capital of Toronto, says it tried to buy shares of Overstock to satisfy customer orders but has never received the actual shares it bought, even after 39 attempts to force the brokers who sold it the stock to produce the shares."
__________________________________

39 ATTEMPTS???? It seems to me that as Wall Street becomes more and more corrupt, it's becoming more and more of a risk to hold ANY shares of ANYTHING in the stock market....; September 14, 2006 4:58 PM
Anonymous said...: Ahmadinejad: We can better lead the world

Iranian president says nuclear standoff with West can be resolved peacefully; adds: ‘there is no need for UN sanctions against his country; US should moderate its language’

Associated Press
Published: 09.14.06, 07:37

Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says nuclear standoff resolvable by dialogue Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Thursday that his country’s nuclear standoff with the West can be solved through dialogue, while calling for unspecified “New conditions” in negotiations.

Ahmedinejad, on an hours-long stopover in Senegal en route to Cuba for a summit of the Nonaligned Movement, said the debate over Iranian nuclear enrichment could be solved peacefully.; September 14, 2006 5:55 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3303756,00.html; September 14, 2006 5:56 PM
Anonymous said...: The important thing to remember about overstock video is that there are at least major 12 hedge funds out there that are still practicing
Naked Short Sells.

With some hedge fund leveraging over 18 times that means the 8 trillion dollars industry could fall apart if several of these hedge funds are not equally position.

Let say about 20% are highly leverage and were not equally position.

8 * 0.20 * 18 = $28.8 trillion.

That kind of unbalance positions can not only take the stock market, currency market, commodities market down, but also the bond market.

It will crush the Mortgage Back Security if this thing unwind.

This means that the Federal Reserve has it arms full, and it makes it harder for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rate.

Most likely the gap between the treasury and MBS yield will be squeezed.

This leave very little incentive for lenders to give out a loan to potential buyers if their profits are being squeezed.

The only way a potential buyers can get a loan in this environment is if he/she is an "A" paper.; September 15, 2006 4:37 AM
Anonymous said...: For many, homes becoming a liability

Is your home an asset or a liability?

This question may seem odd; owning your home necessarily implies it's an asset. But for an increasing number of Americans, a home will become a liability in the years to come.

Several factors are at play. Many people buy homes without a down payment; some borrow the closing costs. For these people, the house becomes a liability the minute they sign on the dotted line.

The next step into the red occurs when people pay less than the interest owed in a given month, causing the liability to grow.

When you owe more than your home's worth, you're "upside down." Amid last month's huge spike in local foreclosures, Addison, Texas-based Foreclosure Listing Service reported that one in five foreclosees was upside down.

Although we don't have nationwide data, it's clear that universally lax lending standards have turned some homebuyers upside down from coast to coast.

But we still haven't arrived at what will be the bottom line for many homeowners. To get there you must factor in the final variable: declining home values.

More pressure

Goldman Sachs' chief economist, Jan Hatzius, figures national home prices will decline 5 percent in 2007, further pressuring borrowers who are upside down. "If there is little or no equity, it will be hard for homeowners to sell their way out of trouble," he warned.

Merrill Lynch's chief economist David Rosenberg dared look out a bit further. His forecast calls for home prices to decline by a further 3 percent in 2008, remain flat in 2009 and increase by 1 percent in both 2010 and 2011.

Bear in mind, these figures are polite in typical Wall Street fashion. There's a good chance things will get much uglier, since home prices, adjusted for inflation, have risen three times more than they've done in any other housing cycle in U.S. history. In other words, no one knows how much prices will fall, because there's simply no precedent to guide us.

Time will tell. But it will not be this columnist who tells it.

Goodbye

In the past several months I've received numerous e-mails asking why I haven't written an "I told you so" column on housing. My answer has always been that there's nothing to celebrate.

To the contrary, a huge amount of work will be required in the coming years to address the fallout of the largest financial bubble in history. The ramifications extend far beyond the realm of residential real estate.

To that end, I will write one last column tomorrow and take my leave. My hope is that I can do more by saying less as a member of the private sector and soldier on the front lines of the economic battlefield.

I will be forever humbled by the tremendous outpouring of support readers have provided over the years. You were the very thing that made being the voice of the minority bearable.

http://www.ktvb.com/sharedcontent/
business/dimartino2/
091406ccdrBizDimartino.b7255fa.html; September 15, 2006 5:19 AM
Anonymous said...: "THE HOUSING BUBBLE AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ECONOMY" STATEMENT OF PATRICK LAWLER, CHIEF ECONOMIST OFHEO, BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON HOUSING AND TRANSPORTATION AND THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON ECONOMIC POLICY - (September 13, 2006)

Over the past five years, we have witnessed an extraordinary change in the relative price of houses. The general level of house prices soared 56 percent from the Spring of 2001 to the Spring of 2006. The prices of other goods and services rose much less, so that inflation-adjusted house prices are now 38 PERCENT HIGHER THAN 5 YEARS AGO. That exeeds the inflation-adjusted increase in the previous 26 years, going back to the beginning of OFHEO's data.

In 2001, less than 10 percent of new mortgage securities were backed by subprime loans. In each of the past two years, subprime lending has amounted to more than 20 percent of that market.

Finally, there is some evidence of speculation, as the share of loans made to investors has risen and turnover rates have been hign, with anecdotes of property flipping becoming common.

Historical patterns of price behavior in housing markets may provide some guidance about potential future developments. OFHEO's national House Price Index has never fallen over a period of a year or more, but it has come very close, and inflation-adjusted prices have fallen significantly, by 11 percent in the early 1980s and by 9 percent in the early 1990s. In the first instance, it took nearly 8 years for inflation-adjusted prices to regain the past peak and in the second case, almost 10 years. Certainly, a similar event is quite possible now.

In the long run, I expect housing markets to perform well, expecially if immigration continues at recent rates.

An important caveat, though, is that healthy housing markets could soften seriously from an unexpected disruption in the ability of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to function effectively in secondary mortgage markets.

CONCLUSION:

Although the future direction of home prices is the subject of great speculation, there is little doubt that several factors may constrain appreciation rates in the near future. First and most fundamentally, home prices are at historically high levels and have already started to stretch past many traditional affordability boundaries. Home affordability is at very low levels in places like California and the New England states, for example. Barring very significant increases in average incomes or interest rate declines, these price levels will weigh heavily against major price increases in the near term.

The second constraint on appreciation rates is rising housing inventories. The number of homes available for sale has increased substantially over the last year, giving homebuyers much more bargaining power than they have had in recent periods. Such bargaining power can lead sellers to reduce prices.

The third and final factor involves market psychology. Although it has been difficult to accurately quantify the effect of speculative activity on recent appreciation patterns, anecdotal evidence suggests that it effect may have been material in select markets in California, Nevada, Arizona, and other states. To the extent that the recent slowdown in appreciation rates may sour some potential investors on real estate investments, home demand may decline somewhat.

http://www.ofheo.gov/media/pdf/
plawlertest91306.pdf; September 15, 2006 5:48 AM
Anonymous said...: NAR: Home prices to continue to fall throughout 2006

“We were seeing home prices and mortgage debt servicing cost-to-income ratios increase to unhealthy levels in some housing markets, which precipitate an adjustment,” said NAR President Thomas M. Stevens.

Also contributing to the cooling housing market is an increase in mortgage rates of nearly 1 percentage point, speculative investors pulling back and first-time buyers being priced out of the market. (9/14/2006)

“For the past five years, the housing market has been a steadfast leader in the U.S. economy,” Thomas M. Stevens, president of NAR, told the Senate Subcommittee on Housing and Transportation and the Senate Subcommittee on Economic Policy.

“After five years of outstanding growth, the housing market is undergoing a period of adjustment and becoming more and more of a balanced market between buyers and sellers.”

http://releases.usnewswire.com/
GetRelease.asp?id=72305; September 15, 2006 6:06 AM
Anonymous said...: This isn't the time to buy starter home

The Dallas Morning News

So we know the housing market is melting down. What we don't know is when it will stop.

Let's take the buyers' point of view. They know what they want out of a house.

If it's a starter home and the intent is to sell in a few years, now is not a good time to buy.

In Dallas-Fort Worth, the median home price has declined to $152,500 from $157,500, or 3 percent, from June to August. That $5,000 haircut might not sound like much, but for most people, that's a whole year of appreciation.

If you're buying now, throw in seller's fees and you've basically committed to be in that home for two years just to break even.

Much of what's kept local home prices from falling as rapidly as they have in places like Miami and Boston is that out-of-staters have flocked here in search of bargains.

Once these nomads sniff the blood in the water, they'll pull up stakes and head out of town using the same route the speculator seminars used to bus them in.

Appreciate this and you'll grasp the difference between the current real estate cycle and those of prior generations. Never before has capital been so mobile in search of a roof over its head.

When you throw in buyers from out of the country, you'll better understand the term globalization.

http://www.kmov.com/sharedcontent/
business/dimartino2/
091306ccdrBizDimartino.6583083.html; September 15, 2006 6:11 AM
Anonymous said...: Someone please call the Mortgage Police.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=
dx3YwIacYcw&mode=related&search; September 15, 2006 6:23 AM
Anonymous said...: Sorry, but this site is getting old! Same whiners, bitch'n and complaining about stuff they know nothing about, but wish they did!

Adios; September 15, 2006 6:25 AM
Anonymous said...: Cleveland is on the front lines of a housing boom gone sour. So how are the bankers, brokers, and speculators still generating massive profits?

The Mortgage Bankers Association of America counted about 408,000 foreclosures in 2005, up from 259,000 five years earlier.

For a homeowner, foreclosure is a cataclysm of both practical and psychological dimensions: the challenge of losing one's home, the drain of ruined credit, and the shame of having failed at the American Dream. For the other players involved, though, foreclosures are merely a small cost of doing business in a lucrative market.

Until the mid-1990s banks only lent to borrowers with more or less sterling credit.

Now, with a quick spreadsheet calculation, lenders can find a loan to suit almost any customer -- at the right interest rate, and often with outsize fees.

Even if a few borrowers fail to keep up, banks will still make money since they can repossess and resell those properties.

The players below the banks on the real estate food chain -- the speculators who flip properties, the freelance mortgage brokers who shop around for the right appraisal -- also have little to worry about; they exit the scene as soon as a deal is closed.

The only losers in the game are buyers with modest incomes moving into the first homes of their own. Even if they manage to hold on to their homes, chances are they'll see a few neighbors lose theirs -- and, like the Andersons, they'll be left picking up the pieces.

http://www.motherjones.com/news/
feature/2006/09/prime_suspect.html

The rate at which the banks can get their money for and what they can loan it out for was tight in the 1990 so banks only lent to borrowers with more or less sterling credit.

So when house price appreciation is flat or going down, Banks are more at risk to get into a short sell.

Did you notice that in the past few months when profit got squeezed Banks were thinking twice about playing the reposion cards.; September 15, 2006 7:09 AM
Anonymous said...: U.S. Recession Quite Likely in 2008, Morgan Stanley's Xie Says

By Hans van Leeuwen and Haslinda Amin

Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy may fall into recession in 2008 as bond yields increase, raising borrowing costs for households, Morgan Stanley's chief Asia economist Andy Xie said.

``The bond market is not sustainable because inflation pressure is quite strong, so at some point next year the bond market will go down and the yield will go up,'' Xie said in an interview today, on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund annual meeting in Singapore.

``At that time, the U.S. economy will be in a tough spot. A U.S. recession in 2008 is quite likely.''

The IMF yesterday warned that inflation, oil prices and a slower U.S. economy threaten the strongest global expansion in three decades. The fund cut its prediction for U.S. growth next year to 2.9 percent from the 3.3 percent it forecast in April. That would be the weakest since 2003.

A U.S. housing slowdown ``is well and truly here,'' IMF Chief Economist Raghuram Rajan said in Singapore.

U.S. government 10-year bonds are yielding 4.77 percent and consumer prices rose 4.1 percent in July from a year earlier. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.32 percent last week, close to the lowest since March.

``Bond yield are very low'' supporting the economy by keeping borrowing costs cheap, Xie said. ``Most housing mortgages in the U.S. are fixed.''

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 5.25 percent at its last meeting on Aug. 8 after 17 consecutive increases since June 2004. The U.S. accounts for more than a quarter of the world economy.

Fed's Credibility

Xie said the Fed is relying on its inflation-fighting credibility to keep bond yields down.

``This credibility can only go so far,'' he said. ``At some point, bond traders will say, `hey, these guys are just trying to stimulate the economy even though inflation is high.' When they reach that conclusion, bond yields will shoot up and that's when we'll have a recession.''

Asia may be insulated from a U.S. recession at first, as China's high savings rate could keep investment flowing in the world's fourth-largest economy.

``But if the U.S. stays down for several years then China will also slow down, because in the end Chinese liquidity is based on exports,'' Xie said.

The IMF forecasts the global economy will expand 5.1 percent this year, slowing to 4.9 percent in 2007. Both forecasts are 0.2 percentage points higher than its April estimates. Growth was 4.9 percent last year.

U.S. economic growth slowed to an annualized rate of 2.9 percent in the second quarter, after expanding 5.6 percent in the first quarter. China's economy advanced 11.3 percent in the quarter from a year earlier.

``The U.S. housing bubble is bursting. The economy will slow down just due to the housing-sector slowdown,'' Xie said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/
news?pid=
20601087&sid=a22PJ040r.TE&refer=
home; September 15, 2006 7:32 AM
Anonymous said...: Countrywide Financial Corporation (NYSE: CFC) released operational data for the month ended August 31, 2006. Key operational results included the following:

* Mortgage loan fundings for the month of August were $40 billion, a
decrease of 24 percent from August 2005. Year-to-date fundings of
$296 billion were down by 4 percent from $309 billion last year.

- Monthly purchase volume in August was $19 billion as compared to
$25 billion for August 2005. Year-to-date purchase activity was
$138 billion as compared to $148 billion last year.

- Adjustable-rate loan fundings for the month of August were $18 billion as compared to $27 billion in August 2005. Year-to-date adjustable-rate volume was $143 billion as compared to $166 billion last year.

- Home equity loan fundings for August were $4.1 billion, essentially flat from August 2005. Year-to-date home equity fundings were $31 billion, 14 percent higher than last year.

- Nonprime loan fundings in August were $3.7 billion, compared with
$4.5 billion for the year-ago period. Year-to-date nonprime loan
funding volume of $27 billion was down 3 percent from the comparable
period last year.

- Consolidated pay-option loan fundings for the month of August were $5.4 billion, compared with $10.4 billion in August of last year. Year-to-date pay-option fundings were $49.7 billion, as compared to $60.2 billion from the same period last year.

http://www.prnewswire.com/
cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/
www/story/09-14-2006/
0004432696&EDATE=; September 15, 2006 7:50 AM
Anonymous said...: "Asia may be insulated from a U.S. recession at first, as China's high savings rate could keep the investment flowing..."

Another way to look at it is; if there is flood coming, the U.S. will get drowned first, before China gets a knee deep of water.

Wake up America and start SAVING!; September 15, 2006 3:07 PM
Anonymous said...: "I'm sort of new to this world of gold thing, so maybe someone could explain something to me. Why should gold be considered the ultimate store of wealth by so many."

Via a process of elimination spanning over 5000 years of history, gold (and silver) have emerged as particularly suitable forms of money. Grain used to be used but that has a problem with spoiling and being eaten by rats. Precious metals are relatively easy to store and transport.

"What can you do with it besides make fancy jewelery?"

It's used in dentistry and electronics, but the primary uses are in jewelry, decoration, and, of course, as money. What can you do with a Federal Reserve Note? It doesn't even make good toilet paper.

"Why not put your money in oil or land or something of some real use."

Nothing wrong with investing in real estate, if you buy at reasonable prices. Some good buying opportunities may be available in 3-7 years. The problem with oil is that it's kind of hard to have a Strategic Petroleum Reserve in one's backyard. The US has one, but that doesn't work too well on an individual scale. Owning some oil company shares is not a bad idea, though, provided they are purchased at a reasonable price.

"Yeah gold is rare, but so what? Why not at least buy platinum or silver which actually have more industrial uses as well as being rare?"

Silver has also historically been used as money (a tier down from gold). Platinum is a relatively recent discovery. Gold is far rarer than silver, though platinum is rarer than gold. Having lots of industrial applications does not necessarily make something more suitable to be money. Demand for industrial materials tends to fall in an economic downturn, so your 'rainy day fund' would buy less when you might need it the most.

"It sort of feels like people use it as a store of value, because people have always used it as such."

Don't underestimate the power of 5000 years of tradition. The cultures of the emerging superpowers (China and India) place great value on gold. When all those Chinese and Indians become wealthier, don't you think they'll be buying more gold? Or will they use green pieces of paper with numbers on them as a store of value?

"I just think there are better "stores of value" that have better practical uses as well. Am I wrong?"

Well, some cultures have used grain, or cattle, but these have many obvious drawbacks. Industrial metals (i.e., metals for which the demand is primarily for industrial, not monetary, uses) also have drawbacks - they would tend to NOT hold their value in an economic downturn. Fiat currencies like the Federal Reserve Note (a.k.a. the US peso) have the drawback that the money supply can be inflated far too easily by a corrupt and incompetent government (like the one that's no longer reporting M3). On the other hand, the quantity of gold is strictly limited by what can be mined at a profit. Gold comes from supernova explosions, not government printing presses.

If civilization were to collapse completely, small arms ammunition and canned food would probably be the "money" of the day, but it would only take a modest recovery for gold to reassert itself. It was, after all, still money in the Dark Ages.; September 16, 2006 1:22 AM
Anonymous said...: Alright, here's the big question. If in 2000, the market was "normal" and in 2002-2005 the market was "hot," that being the time buyers were prevalent and the name of the game was to sell and make big cash, and now the market has returned to "normal," then should not housing prices return to "normal" 2000 levels?

And, what is with the thinking that prices returning to 2000 levels is a crash and/or that the gov't needs to step in to "save" housing? The best thing gov't can do to "save" housing is to let the market shake it off, get rid of these asses and revert to normal!; September 16, 2006 7:50 AM
Anonymous said...: Alright Kieth, here you go...the most affordable homes...

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/bpretire/2006/top25s/affordable.html

Funny thing is that most are all Upstate NY, the new "Appalachia" according to Elliot Spitzer. To me, nothing but a canary in a coal mine for the rest of our failing nation.

Upstate used to be an industrial behemoth. Buffalo had steel and the nation's heavy manufacturing, Niagara had the power and chemical plants (and aluminum to boot), Rochester had Kodak, Xerox and Bausch and Lomb, Syracuse had even more steel, Carrier and Lockheed, Albany and Binghamptom had GE and IBM. All gone.

And now Ford, GM and all their suppliers in their last gasps, yet the stock market keeps rising? WTF.

Wake up A**holes.; September 16, 2006 8:27 AM
Anonymous said...: California was one of five states -- along with Florida, Texas, Ohio and Illinois -- that accounted for half of the nation's new foreclosure filings in August.

California's rate was slightly above the national average of one foreclosure for every 1,003 homes for the third month in a row.

http://sanjose.bizjournals.com/
sanjose/stories/2006/09/11/
daily42.html?b=
1158120000%5E1344781&surround=etf; September 16, 2006 7:28 PM
Anonymous said...: ONE JOB BOOM IN CALIFORNIA IS GOING TO BE LAWYERS GOING AFTER MORTGAGE LENDERS

A softening home market is not by itself to blame for the jump in California home foreclosures

The most common reason is an event such as loss of job or illness to a family’s major income producer. But attorney John Brady says there are other causes that he is seeing more often.

“It could be predatory lending,”

“I’ve had a number of people in this last month – this is completely unbelievable and so foreign – their mortgage payments are more than their income,”

He says in some cases it appears that mortgage brokers faked income for the applicants so they would qualify for mortgages.

“The homeowner should never have gotten the loan. Somebody’s made fees off of this thing and I think some of these lenders are so anxious to get their money loaned out that they do what they call ‘stated income,’”

“The lenders don’t care. You’ve got janitors that are out there with $450,000 loans,”

“The lenders should know that janitors don’t make enough to support that kind of loan.”

One of his clients who is in foreclosure makes about $5,000 a month but on the loan documents someone wrote in that his income was $11,000 a month,

“So the lender goes ahead and grants the loan and now the guy can’t pay it,”

“He’s probably going to lose his home [and] it extremely damages his credit.”

“I’ve had a number of clients that have refinanced their property in the last year or two. They’ve pulled all their equity out of it and they’ve used their house kind of like a credit card. Now there’s nothing left. Some of those are choosing just to let it get foreclosed on,” Mr. Brady says.

http://www.centralvalleybusinesstimes.com/
stories/001/?ID=3002; September 16, 2006 7:38 PM
Anonymous said...: Homeowners facing foreclosure ask feds for help

Antonio and Kathlene Mareno obtained a home mortgage from Dime Savings Bank. The terms of the mortgage required them to pay their property taxes directly to the local tax collector. However, if they failed to do so, the mortgage allowed the lender to pay the property taxes, add the property tax amount to the mortgage balance, and adjust the monthly mortgage payment.

The borrowers allegedly failed to pay their property taxes for 2002 and 2003. As a result, Dime Savings paid the property taxes and increased the monthly mortgage payment from $754 to $1,268. The Marenos made one payment of $754 after the increase and then stopped making any mortgage payments.

In 2004, Dime Savings filed a complaint against the Marenos to foreclose on the mortgage. The state court then granted a summary judgment allowing the foreclosure.

The Marenos made several state court appeals of the foreclosure, which were denied.

Then in November 2005 the Marenos sued Dime Savings in U.S. District Court, alleging the state trial court's handling of their case violated their federal due-process rights. Dime Savings argued the foreclosure issue was already decided in the state court and the homeowners don't have a right to litigate the same issue again in federal court.

If you were the U.S. District Court judge would you rule the Marenos can challenge the state trial court foreclosure judgment in federal court?

The judge said no!

The jurisdiction of U.S. District Courts is strictly original and there is no right to appeal state court due-process claims except to the U.S. Supreme Court, the judge began.

Furthermore, a federal due-process claim under the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution can only be brought against a defendant acting under authority of state law, and there was no such evidence here because Dime Savings is a private business corporation, the judge explained.

The Marenos already had their right to litigate and appeal the foreclosure judgment in state courts, the judge ruled. They failed to prove a federal denial of due-process claim, so this case is dismissed for lack of jurisdiction, and the foreclosure may proceed, the judge concluded.

http://www.lodinews.com/
articles/2006/09/16/realestate/
inman/
531f3698beb8ff9e5a8d76dabf2a5fcb.
txt; September 16, 2006 7:53 PM
Anonymous said...: Housing Inventory Quintuples
In Once-Booming Bakersfield

Just 12 months ago, this sun-baked Southern California city was one of the hottest real-estate markets in the country. With inventories at razor-thin levels, properties would sell in a matter of days, sometimes even hours, as multiple bids poured in on each home. "For Sale" signs were almost nowhere to be found.

Those days now are dust in Bakersfield's gusty winds.

The housing stock nearly has quintupled and prices are virtually flat when compared to last year's levels.

Home sale time-frames now are measured in months, not days.

Trouble signs are everywhere.

At Lennar Corp.'s Artisan/Terra Vista tract on the city's west side, about 20 homes only a year old are back on the market.

"It's very tough market,"

said Joginder Gill, the agent trying to sell one of the six houses.

"If you look at past history, it's going to go way, way down."

According to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, Bakersfield edged out Las Vegas in the first quarter of 2005 for highest average property growth with a 33.7% increase. Las Vegas was up 33.3%.

Local experts say those figures are outdated.

Gary Crabtree, a local appraiser who compiles a monthly report on Bakersfield market trends, says median home sale prices in the region rose 2% in July compared with the year before.

The time that unsold inventory remains on the market has jumped 400%, from 1.7 months to 8.5 months. And the time homes have spent on the market has more than tripled, from 12 days to 38 days.

Even that last figure can be deceiving, Crabtree says.

He thinks agents are playing what he calls the

"RE-LISTING GAMES,"

or

TAKING A PROPERTY OFF THE MARKET AND
THEN PUTTING IT BACK ON AGAIN SO
THAT THE "days on market" CLOCK
STARTS ANEW.

http://www.realestatejournal.com/
buysell/regionalnews/
20060911-britt.html; September 16, 2006 8:35 PM
Anonymous said...: Fresno Earns the Highest National Poverty Title

Alan Berube is the Brookings Institution scholar who gave Fresno the tough title of the city with the highest concentration of poverty.

Additionally, he says recent trends may be tough to turn around.

For instance, over the last 30 years, the city's immigrant population has increased six-fold.

Even more, new high-end housing developments make it so the rich live with the rich, and the poor live with the poor.

"No country has survived with such a gulf between the rich and the poor that we're experiencing today,"

http://abclocal.go.com/kfsn/
story?section=local&id=4536540

Didn't the NAR say that the increasing immigrant population was suppose to help the housing market.

So why did Fresno earn the Highest National Poverty Title?; September 16, 2006 8:45 PM
Anonymous said...: Both Riverside County and San Bernardino County were worse off than the state as a whole.

One of every 359 households in Riverside County went into foreclosure in August, while the corresponding number in San Bernardino County was one of every 552.

The two counties ranked first and eighth, respectively, in California.

"There are a lot of people who are very nervous about the Riverside market,"

"They have been checking on housing tracts to see if speculators were being kept out, and they were not.

"There is a big increase in unsold inventory in Riverside, and with the market slowing, that may be a problem."

"Nationwide, foreclosures ramped up significantly in August, pushing the national foreclosure rate close to its highest level of the year so far,"

"And with home price appreciation continuing to decelerate and billions of dollars in adjustable rate mortgages projected to reset in the next few months, this month's increase could be the beginning of an upward shift in the foreclosures market."

http://www.sbsun.com/business/
ci_4347859; September 16, 2006 9:00 PM
Anonymous said...: Colo. ranked No. 1 in foreclosure rate

DENVER — Colorado ranked first in the nation for foreclosures in August amid concerns that the housing market is softening, according to two new reports from online companies that monitor the industry.

Greeley in Weld County was No. 1 among 252 metropolitan areas for foreclosure rates, while metropolitan Denver ranked fifth

Weld County posted the nation’s fastest metropolitan area population growth between 2000 and 2003, prompting a construction boom, but wages and home values have grown more slowly in recent months, industry and government statistics showed.

“The Weld County market is worse than the late 1980s, and they didn’t even have the loan products we have now,” said broker Matthew Revitte with Pro Realty Inc. in Greeley, who has been in the business for 21 years.

There have been 1,393 foreclosures filed in the county this year, Chief Deputy Weld County Public Trustee Donna Schmidt said.

http://www.longmontfyi.com/
Local-Story.asp?id=9869; September 16, 2006 9:05 PM
Anonymous said...: Appraisers need to examine wider data to value homes as post-boom prices adjust

It can be tough. Traditionally, real estate appraisers focused heavily on sales of similar properties -- ``comparables'' that closed in recent months -- to make their valuations.

But that doesn't work well in markets that had been superheated -- prices rising at 1 percent to 2 percent a month -- but are now stalled out or falling.

It also doesn't work well in markets where recent closed sales prices often were inflated by incentives provided by sellers to buyers -- contributions to closing costs, for example, ``buy downs'' of mortgage interest rates and other sweeteners not always on the public record.

``Just looking at historical data can be perilous. You've got to open up the window and see what's really happening now. You've got to answer the question: `Where are we in this cycle?' And you've got to factor that into your valuation.''

Some mortgage lenders and relocation companies now expect appraisers to examine a wide range of data that they never emphasized during the boom years. Gary Crabtree, owner of Affiliated Appraisers, based in Bakersfield, says that besides the traditional ``recent comps,'' he now factors in at least eight other types of data in reaching the current valuation of a house:

• Pending sales under contract.

• Current listing prices of houses in the area.

• Market supply and demand.

• Length of time unsold on the market for current listings.

• Price reductions or increases on current listings.

• Notices of defaults and notices of trustee's sales.

• Known concessions provided to buyers to facilitate sales.

• Personal interviews with realty agents on what they're experiencing with sellers and buyers.

Even some of these factors can be tricky, however. For example, Crabtree said some realty agents increasingly are playing what he calls ``the re-list game.'' Since multiple listing system data reveals how long each property has been on the market, agents with unsold houses now sometimes cancel the listing -- take the property off the market for a short period of time -- and then list it again with a different price and MLS code.

``Now the house no longer looks like it's been sitting dead in the water for months on end,'' said Crabtree. ``It looks like a new listing,'' and it's reported in that misleading way in the data that appraisers use to gauge the overall market.

Crabtree said one house he tracked was first listed last October at $299,900. It sat unsold for 122 days. Then the listing agent pulled it out of the system briefly and brought it back as a new listing, but this time at $269,000. When it didn't sell in 30 days, the agent again yanked the listing and reported it as a new one with an asking price of $259,000.

Currently the house is on the market for $229,000, ``but it's still not selling.''

``There's just a tremendous number of them out there right now'' -- some of them under the table and tough to detect -- ``but they've got to come off the valuation.''

In other words, if the recorded contract price on a pending or recently closed sale is $395,000, but the seller is kicking in $25,000 in concessions, the value of the property for comparable purposes is $370,000.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/
mercurynews/classifieds/real_estate/
15534815.htm; September 16, 2006 9:21 PM
Anonymous said...: County puts stop to excessive real estate signs

New sign rules

The county Board of Supervisors unanimously approved four special provisions:

* One 'For Sale' sign allowed adjacent to the property offered.

* No directional signs allowed.

* Confiscated signs can be reclaimed at 2700 Brommer St. for a $45 fee.

* Confiscated signs not reclaimed in 30 days will be destroyed.

Others were more optimistic.

"Hallelujah," said Dave Mann, Coldwell Banker manager and broker associate.

"The good news is it will really clean up the unincorporated areas of our county," he said.

Real Estate Agents are optimistic because having that many signs can scare potential Buyers.

http://www.santacruzsentinel.com/
archive/2006/September/15/local/
stories/03local.htm; September 16, 2006 9:29 PM
Anonymous said...: Bay Area housing speculators are
moving out of Central California and into Texas, New Mexico and Oklahoma.

In early 2005, nearly 6 percent of the region's home sales were properties owned less than half a year. None could be considered part of the region's "core housing market of putting roofs over their heads," said Mike Ela of HomeSmartReports.com.

Then, the Sacramento region ranked second statewide for "flipping," the business of buying a house and quickly reselling it for profit.

Only San Joaquin County had more, with its rapid home appreciation also fueled by Bay Area migration.

But by early this summer, "flipping" represented only 2.4 percent of sales in the capital region -- while 28 percent of investor-sellers reported losing money on their deals, Ela reported.

Another significant contributor to the real estate boom also has downshifted. That's the inland migration of Bay Area people who bought homes in the capital region to become its newest residents.

From late 2002 to late 2004, nearly 65,000 people moved into the eight local counties from the Bay Area, according to Internal Revenue Service files of address changes. Almost one in three -- 18,000 in all -- came from Santa Clara County alone. The IRS will release 2005 statistics later this fall.

These suburban migrants fueled the bidding wars and fast sales for existing homes and the waiting lists and lotteries for new construction.

Like many from the Bay Area, Stercl, the mortgage broker in Rocklin, came in 2003 for the affordable prices that marked her family's only shot at owning a home.

The full extent of that Bay Area exodus is clear to Stercl now.

"I keep running into more and more people I went to school with who live here," she said. "The quality of life is a lot slower over here. It's good for families. That's still true to this day."

But today, even Bay Area residents who leaped at chances to buy a median-priced $150,000 existing Sacramento-area home in 2000 or a $252,000 house in 2003 can sometimes find themselves discouraged by Sacramento. Though prices here are still less than in the Bay Area, the median price of new homes can top $562,000.

Bay Area residents aren't the only ones who can't afford to take the homebuying plunge. The capital area's typical $400,000 and $500,000 houses also limit the ability of people in Seattle, Portland, Ore., Las Vegas and Salt Lake City to consider moving here.

"The prices aren't competitive anymore. They're just lousy California high,"

Investors Ron Rael of Novato and Kirk McKinney of Pacifica had a ride of their lives during Sacramento's housing boom. They bought houses low and watched the values go sky-high while renting them out.

In hindsight, Sacramento's fast rise from a relatively inexpensive market to one of the priciest in the West could make almost any investor appear like a genius.

No more. The investors' game has moved to Texas, New Mexico and Oklahoma, they say. Neither Rael, McKinney nor any of their Bay Area investor colleagues much care now for Sacramento's languid market.

Amid the aftermath of the boom, Rael, a Novato investor who owns eight Sacramento houses, has turned his sights to San Antonio, Texas. Its median price earlier this year was $133,400.

"I bought a few properties down there," he said. "San Antonio kind of reminds me of the way Sacramento was a few years ago."

http://news.pajamasmedia.com/
business/2006/09/14/
10834739_Areas_housing_le.shtml; September 16, 2006 10:17 PM
Anonymous said...: Who will be the most hurt when Bay Area Housing speculators needs to unwind their INVESTMENT?

California home prices fostering a new breed of extreme commuters

Blame a decade of soaring home prices in Silicon Valley and other parts of California for the proliferation of what could be dubbed "sleepover commuters."

SAN FRANCISCO — Like thousands of other California workers, Ann Inman spends more than two hours getting to work, trekking westward from her suburban dream house to a high-paying job closer to the urbanized coast.

But Inman isn't battling bumper to bumper on the freeway. She's aboard a Southwest Airlines flight from Las Vegas to San Jose, preparing for the first of eight days of mostly 10-hour shifts as a trauma nurse at Stanford University hospital.

When the median home price hit $731,000 in San Mateo County last year, Inman despaired of finding a home she could comfortably afford, even on her six-figure income. Rather than leave a job she loved, and unwilling to endure grinding freeway commutes from cheaper exurban developments, Inman abandoned her rented Mountain View home and bought a house she could afford two hours away by plane.

Like California and most other states, Nevada is short of nurses.

"But they're not willing to pay," said Inman, who figures that taking a job in Nevada would cut her annual pay in half.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/
html/realestate/
2003260594_commuters17.html; September 16, 2006 10:24 PM
Anonymous said...: Eastern States of Australia seem to be biting the dust. Perth and Brisbane are the only ones doing well because of the recent commodity prices boom, which might not go for much longer. Check out this article:

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2006/09/16/1158334735688.html?from=top5; September 16, 2006 10:44 PM
Anonymous said...: The Hard Landing For Housing is Already Here

Here are some facts to consider.

32.6% of new mortgages and home equity loans in 2005 were interest only, up from 0.6% in 2000

43% of first-time home buyers in 2005 put no money down.

15.2% of 2005 home buyers owe at least 10% more than their home is worth.

10% of all home owners have no equity in their homes

$2.7 trillion in loans will adjust to higher rates in 2006 and 2007.

70% of borrowers who took out pay-option ARMS in the past year have loan balances larger than their initial loan.

Homeowners face higher payments as mortgages are reset. Generally, monthly payments rise between $200 and $500 depending on the size of the mortgage.

According to Reality Trac, August foreclosures were up 23% over July and 53% over a year ago.

The number of homes for sale is at record highs, and inventories are 59% higher than a year earlier.

New home sales are down 22% and existing home sales down 11%.

The NASB housing market index has recorded an all-time decline.

The housing affordability index is at a 15-year low.

The house price-to-income (rents) ratio is off the charts. According to HSBC, in 18 states accounting for over 40% of national home values, the price-to-income ratio is 3.6 standard deviations above the mean.

The OFHEO index of house prices deflated by the consumption price deflator has soared to a record high of 350 from 250 in 2001. From 1976 to 1996 it never was above 220.

According to the NAR the year-to year prices of existing homes are now flat. A short time ago they were rising at a yearly rate of 16%.

Nationally, home prices have not declined on a year-to-year basis since 1933. Recently, however, prices have been dropping in the North East, West and Mid-West.

Sales incentives are now estimated at 3% to 7% of selling prices.

http://www.comstockfunds.
com/index.cfm?act=
Newsletter.cfm&CFID=
8162040&CFTOKEN=
76697441&category=
Market%20Commentary&
newsletterid=
1263&menugroup=Home; September 17, 2006 1:07 AM
Anonymous said...: "Now sellers are starting to realize that if they want to sell, they're going to have to be realistic,"

Art Godi of Art Godi Realtors in Stockton said price drops are the result of a summer of real estate brokers and agents "educating" sellers that the days of aggressive pricing are over in a very competitive market.

Not only are Bay Area buyers not in the market the way they used to be, he said, but home builders are offering so many incentives that new homes actually are competing with existing homes these days.

http://www.recordnet.com/
apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=
/20060915/MONEY/609150311; September 17, 2006 1:22 AM
Anonymous said...: http://www.brokeragentnews.com/news/residential/2006_9/9_16_2006_dq_1158427598.html

1.Remenber there names.
2.Know who’s in charge
3.Duh!
4.Except for the one that kills the deal.
5.BROKERS! Circling the wagons.
6. Did a builder come up with this list?
7. Duh!
8. Get an inspection.
9. Circle your wagons.
10. Get the check.; September 17, 2006 3:06 AM
Anonymous said...: http://www.brokeragentnews.com
/news/residential
/2006_9
/9_16_2006_dq_1158427598.html; September 17, 2006 3:09 AM
Anonymous said...: Definition of US Property Bubble:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
US_property_bubble; September 17, 2006 5:00 AM
Anonymous said...: Someone’s Spoiling the Party, the Housing Market Says

Richard A. Smith, vice chairman and president of the Realogy Corporation, the nation’s largest residential real estate broker, said there was a “constant flood of media that is so negative” that it was discouraging many potential buyers and sellers.

Critics point to an article in Fortune magazine in October 2002 that they say illustrates how reporting can distort the market picture.

The article, which was about housing on both coasts, argued that prices were rising so fast they were unsustainable, and that a bubble might be created that would inevitably burst.

An example of the problem, the article noted, was a San Francisco Victorian that sold for $285,000 in 1996 and was listed for $1.2 million in 2002.

Coldwell Banker, which listed the home, complained that Fortune should have noted that the home had been significantly renovated, which would account for much of the price increase.

That year, in an interview with Real Trends, a trade publication, Alexander E. Perriello III, who ran Coldwell Banker then and now heads all five of Realogy’s franchise brands, criticized the article.

“I’m getting sick and tired of irresponsible journalism that attacks one of the few bright spots in the U.S. economy,” he said.

Shawn Tully, who wrote the Fortune article, said

“If my story was so influential,” he said, “why did the prices increase another 50 percent between 2002 and 2005?”

“We were late to the savings and loan crisis and we were definitely late to the dot-com crash,” said Bradley J. Inman, publisher of Inman News, a real estate news service, who said he believed that the news media have done a better job covering the housing boom.

Some critics say the news media did not include enough contrary viewpoints during the run-up in home prices.

“Obviously, people get carried away,” said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic Policy Research in Washington, who runs a press criticism blog called Beat the Press. “But if there are voices that challenge it, it stops some people.”

But Mr. Shiller said he was not so sure it did. In reviewing historical news clips, he said, he found that the press had frequently questioned the premise of booms, including the 1920’s stock market boom. “Newspaper people do that more than their audience demands,” he said. But it appears, he added, that people “read it blandly and it doesn’t sink in.”

http://www.nytimes.com/
2006/09/17/
weekinreview/
17bijaj.html?_r=1&ex=
1159156800&en=
80d93c521dfb2cd0&ei&oref=
slogin; September 17, 2006 8:03 AM
Anonymous said...: Why I don't care for sharing

Nowadays groups of complete strangers are queuing up to buy with one another, as shown by the emergence of property match-making websites.

One of four young men who recently clubbed together to buy a large three-bedroom property in Kent said:

“It will get tricky if one of us decides to leave or get married, but we’ll deal with that if and when it happens.”

But that’s precisely the catch about buying together.

If someone does decide to leave, almost certainly at the behest of a boyfriend or girlfriend who doesn’t want to live in glorified student accommodation, then he’ll expect the others to buy him out — doubtless at a premium to the original selling price.

But, like everything else, a property is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.

A house is a pretty illiquid investment at the best of times, but a share in a house is even harder to sell.

So anyone who decides to move out doesn’t have much leverage.

If times are hard, the other three might decide to offer less for his portion of the property, in light of the fact that they are the only people who would be interested in buying it.

That’s when things start to get messy.

Divorce is a nasty business even when only two parties are involved — a four-way split is likely to be much worse.

Most rational people would agree that “share-to-buy” schemes like these, and other exotic ways to help people who really can’t afford to climb on the property ladder, are a sure sign that we’re in a bubble.

The other sign is the number of amateur landlords still piling on to the buy-to-let bandwagon — despite all the evidence that it no longer pays.

Those who had expected prices to start falling after the slowdown that lasted for most of last year have been proved wrong — or at least premature. With prices continuing to rise in the face of all these headwinds, it’s little wonder that most people still believe house prices can only go up.

http://www.timesonline.
co.uk/newspaper/
0,,2770-2360913,00.html; September 17, 2006 8:14 AM
Anonymous said...: So what are we going to do for jobs when it all crashes this year?

Go invade Iran and knock off some Arabs?; September 17, 2006 10:05 AM
Anonymous said...: It is looking like full scale Rag Heads vs. KKK in 2007.

The KKK has go the backing of the American military and world Jewish congress but the Rag Heads have got control of the world's oil resources and a few billion more people willing to die for a pair of books written 2000 years ago.; September 17, 2006 10:18 AM
Anonymous said...: Big Brother is shouting at you
16th September 2006

Big Brother is not only watching you - now he's barking orders too. Britain's first 'talking' CCTV cameras have arrived, publicly berating bad behaviour and shaming offenders into acting more responsibly.

The system allows control room operators who spot any anti-social acts - from dropping litter to late-night brawls - to send out a verbal warning: 'We are watching you'.

Middlesbrough has fitted loudspeakers on seven of its 158 cameras in an experiment already being hailed as a success. Jack Bonner, who manages the system, said: 'It is one hell of a deterrent. It's one thing to know that there are CCTV cameras about, but it's quite another when they loudly point out what you have just done wrong.

'Most people are so ashamed and embarrassed at being caught they quickly slink off without further trouble.

'There was one incident when two men started fighting outside a nightclub. One of the control room operators warned them over the loudspeakers and they looked up, startled, stopped fighting and scarpered in opposite directions.

'This isn't about keeping tabs on people, it's about making the streets safer for the law-abiding majority and helping to change the attitudes of those who cause trouble. It challenges unacceptable behaviour and makes people think twice.'

The Mail on Sunday watched as a cyclist riding through a pedestrian area was ordered to stop.

'Would the young man on the bike please get off and walk as he is riding in a pedestrian area,' came the command.

The surprised youth stopped, and looked about. A look of horror spread across his face as he realised the voice was referring to him.

He dismounted and wheeled his bike through the crowded streets, as instructed.

Law-abiding shopper Karen Margery, 40, was shocked to hear the speakers spring into action as she walked past them.

Afterwards she said: 'It's quite scary to realise that your every move could be monitored - it really is like Big Brother.

'But Middlesbrough does have a big problem with anti-social behaviour, so it is very reassuring.'

The scheme has been introduced by Middlesbrough mayor Ray Mallon, a former police superintendent who was dubbed Robocop for pioneering the zero-tolerance approach to crime.

He believes the talking cameras will dramatically cut not just anti-social behaviour, but violent crime, too.

And if the city centre scheme proves a success, it will be extended into residential areas.

The control room operators have been given strict guidelines about what commands they can give. Yelling 'Oi you, stop that', is not permitted.

Instead, their instructions make the following suggestions: 'Warning - you are being monitored by CCTV - Warning - you are in an alcohol-free zone, please refrain from drinking'; and Warning - your behaviour is being monitored by CCTV. It is being recorded and the police are attending.'

Mr Bonner said: 'We always make the requests polite, and if the offender obeys, the operator adds 'thank you'. We think that's a nice finishing touch.

'It would appear that the offenders are the only ones who find the audio cameras intrusive. The vast majority of people welcome these cameras.

'Put it this way, we never have requests to remove them.'

But civil rights campaigners have argued that the talking cameras are no 'magic bullet', in the fight against crime.

Liberty spokesman Doug Jewell said: 'None of us likes litterbugs or yobs playing up on a Saturday night, but talking CCTV cameras are no substitute for police officers on the beat.'; September 17, 2006 3:57 PM
Anonymous said...: http://tinyurl.com/enufl

This link will only last two weeks. Celebration developer is selling million dollar homes on the water frontage of the most disgusting filthy lake in Florida, and buyers don't care???

What a schocker.; September 17, 2006 4:42 PM
Anonymous said...: whiskey and gunpowder.com

You must be a redneck if

If you can not spell.
(:; September 17, 2006 5:21 PM
Anonymous said...: Really Funny Stuff. Will offend both Dem's and Repub's.

Truth And Wisdom
About The US Government
By Karl WB Schwarz
9-16-6

1. Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress, but then I repeat myself.
......Mark Twain -

2. I contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle.
......Winston Churchill -

3. A government which robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul.
......George Bernard Shaw -

4. Democracy must be something more than two wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for dinner.
......James Bovard, Civil Libertarian (1994) -

5. Foreign aid might be defined as a transfer of money from poor people in rich countries to rich people in poor countries.
......Douglas Casey, Classmate of Bill Clinton at Georgetown University -

6. Giving money and power to government is like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys.
......P.J. O'Rourke, Civil Libertarian -

7. Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else.
......Frederic Bastiat, French Economist (1801-1850) -

8. Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it .......Ronald Reagan (1986) -

9. I don't make jokes. I just watch the government and report the facts
.....Will Rogers -

10. If you think health care is expensive now, wait until you see what it costs when it's free.
.....P.J. O'Rourke -

11. In general, the art of government consists of taking as much money as possible from one party of the citizens to give to the other.
....Voltaire (1764) -

12. Just because you do not take an interest in politics doesn't mean politics won't take an interest in you.
....Pericles (430 BC.) -

13. No man's life, liberty, or property is safe while the Legislature is in session.
....Mark Twain (1866) -

14. Talk is cheap, except when Congress does it.
....Unknown -

15. The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of the blessings. The inherent blessing of socialism is the equal sharing of misery.
....Winston Churchill -

16. What this country needs are more unemployed politicians.
....Edward Langley, Artist (1928 - 1995) -

17. A government big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have.
...Thomas Jefferson -

Actually, my favorite one is by Will Rogers and it is not on the list:

But with Congress - every time they make a joke it's a law. And every time they make a law it's a joke.
Will Rogers

He is attributed on several others I like too:

On account of being a democracy and run by the people, we are the only nation in the world that has to keep a government four years, no matter what it does.

We hold the distinction of being the only nation that is goin' to the poorhouse in an automobile.

I am not a member of any organized party - I am a Democrat.

You've got to be an optimist to be a Democrat, and you've got to be a humorist to stay one.

My favorite modern day political comedian is Will Durst. http://www.willdurst.com/WillQuotes.html

Warren Buffet has decided to give 85% of his money toBill Gates. The only guy in the entire world richer than he is. Had a 6 billion to 1 shot of giving it to somebody poorer than him and blew it.

For we political comics, Bush is a cornucopia of delights. Like if Reagan and Quayle had a kid. He's Quagan.

Bush's poll numbers are lower than a puppy eating cobra and the Democrats still have less traction than a roller skating giraffe on ice.

I would love to pick on the Democrats. But there's nothing there. It's like trying to nail jello to tree. Or stapling smoke. Can't even accuse the Dems of being afraid of their own shadow because at this point, I'm not sure they actually cast one. Besides, it's hard to see your shadow when you're head's so far up your butt you can tickle your spleen with your elbow. If the Democrats were a horse, the only humane thing to do would be to shoot them.

When the going gets tough, the tough arrange photo ops.

The President said "failure is not an option," so apparently it comes as a factory installed standard feature.; September 17, 2006 5:27 PM
Anonymous said...: "Go invade Iran and knock off some Arabs?"

You mean half-Arab/half-Persian.

The real Persians are now Soviet whites in the Ossetian province of Russia. Remember the schoolyard hostage standoff at Beslan. Those were jealous Chechen Muslims who couldn't stand to see Christian white Persians be happy to be a part of Russia. Gives you an idea of how Islam has divided former nationalities.; September 17, 2006 6:15 PM
Anonymous said...: "Anonymous said...
http://tinyurl.com/enufl

This link will only last two weeks. Celebration developer is selling million dollar homes on the water frontage of the most disgusting filthy lake in Florida, and buyers don't care???

What a shocker."

Here's a radical idea! Back off reclaiming that stink hole, let it turn into the most festering sore in the state, where just getting downwind from it is lethal and no amount of filtering can make the water supply safe for humans. The human parasites can't live there, bankruptcy isn't an option with the new law, property taxes will still have to be paid by somebody, and nature will "find a way" to clean up the mess when their is no human habitation. Not some radical tree hugger, just hate the combo of money and don’t care arrogance about our temporary home while on this earth.; September 17, 2006 6:30 PM
Anonymous said...: They made Billions in sales and only donated $100,000.00 to the clean up?
WTF mates.; September 17, 2006 6:39 PM
Anonymous said...: Anon 6;30:34,

Why was a permit issued to the developer then?; September 17, 2006 8:34 PM
Anonymous said...: Valley's falling home prices are 'necessary correction'

Metropolitan Phoenix's housing market is "somewhat" vulnerable to a real estate bubble.

But that's not necessarily a bad thing, because if home prices dip a little, affordability will climb and the area's growth has a better chance of continuing.

People and companies move to Phoenix because the area has relatively affordable housing for the West, not because the Valley is "hip and cool" or because it has the best education system

That was Joel Kotkin's message to the Valley's real estate executives last week at an annual real estate seminar called "Evolution: The Valley of the Sun, a Look at Future Growth."

It wasn't the typical real estate forecast citing past figures and predictions for how rosy metro Phoenix's future will be. Speakers took a hard look at where the Valley was headed and what could halt its long-cherished growth.

Kotkin is an authority on global, economic, political and social trends and an Irvine senior fellow at the New America Foundation. Unlike many national experts, he knows Phoenix and not just the older cities of the East and Midwest.

"Lower home prices are a necessary correction for Phoenix," Kotkin told the crowd.

As the real estate market slows, causing some cooldown in the overall economy, he said Phoenix must stick to the basics that made it grow: affordable housing.

http://www.azcentral.com/
arizonarepublic/business/
articles/
0917biz-catherine0917.html; September 17, 2006 11:11 PM
Anonymous said...: As market slows, time is on home buyer’s side

When you combine higher housing inventories with longer list times and historically low interest rates, it’s a strong hand for buyers with at least some down-payment cash in the bank and good credit.

And it might mean that now is a great time to start choosing a neighborhood and looking at the housing stock. If you find a house you like and it has been listed for the past three to six months, the seller might be ready to cut you a great deal.

But take your time. In a buyer’s market (where more sellers have listed homes than there are buyers to purchase them), buyers typically have plenty of time to compare prices, amenities, neighborhoods, commutes and other features.

"It allows potential home buyers more time to look around and decide what they really want and what they can afford," Nothaft observed.

One thing to watch for is an increase in foreclosures because of sellers defaulting on their pay-option adjustablerate mortgage loans. If more sellers find they can’t make the payments on these exotic mortgages, you might find that the best time to buy a house isn’t today, but during the next six to nine months — when those homes start to go into foreclosure.

http://www.dispatch.com/
homegarden/
homegarden.php?story=
dispatch/2006/09/17/
20060917-I3-00.html; September 17, 2006 11:33 PM
Anonymous said...: Foreclosure Figures Suggest
Homeowners in for Rocky Ride

By any measure, things are getting tougher for American homeowners.

Online foreclosure-data service RealtyTrac of Irvine, Calif., said yesterday 115,292 properties nationwide entered some stage of foreclosure last month, a rise of 24% from July and nearly a 53% increase from a year earlier.

Also yesterday, Foreclosure.com of Boca Raton, Fla., which also tracks foreclosures nationwide, said new residential foreclosures fell by 6.7% in August from July to 26,255 nationwide. The company's figures, however, show that foreclosures are up 7.3% compared to August 2005.

The divergent results can be explained by the way each company counts foreclosed properties. RealtyTrac data includes properties in the early stages of a foreclosure proceeding, even before the bank actually owns those properties. About 60% of these get remedied or the properties are sold before they get to the auction stage, said Rick Sharga, vice president of marketing for RealtyTrac.

A spokesman for Foreclosure.com said it only reports properties officially foreclosed and in the hands of the banks.

The trend is supported by data collected by the Mortgage Bankers Association, which reports the number of U.S. households late on mortgage payments fell slightly in the second quarter, but that a modest rise in delinquency and foreclosures is expected going forward.

The delinquency rate for residential mortgages was 4.39% in the April-June period, down from 4.41% in the previous three months, the MBA said in a survey that included 42.5 million loans. Home mortgages in foreclosure made up 0.99% of total mortgages at the end of the quarter, up from 0.98% three months earlier.

The MBA expects further cooling in the economy and the housing market, which in turn could lead to "modest increases in delinquency and foreclosure rates in the quarters ahead," said Douglas Duncan, MBA's chief economist and senior vice president of research and business development.

RealtyTrac Chief Executive James J. Saccacio noted that billions of dollars of adjustable-rate mortgages that have benefited from a stable fixed rate of interest over the past two years are due to shift to higher floating rates in coming months.

"With home-price appreciation continuing to decelerate," he said, August's "increase could be the beginning of an upward shift in the foreclosures market."

Foreclosure.com President and CEO Brad Geisen said while the company has continued to see fluctuations in month-to-month data, "as we near the end of the third quarter, most housing and economic indicators point to a sustained period of increased new foreclosure activity across the country."

Foreclosure.com noted that the West was becoming "an emerging foreclosure hot spot," with new foreclosures in Arizona up 155% in August from July. Foreclosures in California were up 32% and New Mexico saw a 10% increase.

http://www.realestate
journal.com/buysell/
mortgages/
20060915-reed.html; September 17, 2006 11:45 PM
Anonymous said...: Watch Million Dollar Listing on Bravo Channel!!!!!

EGO's RUN AMUK!!!

Dear GOD, is this what we've come to?

I couldn't believe it!

Bad Face lifts, Fancy Cars, Overpriced S--T!!!!!

The EGO's.........F--K!; September 17, 2006 11:46 PM
Anonymous said...: Your house won't bite you, but your mortgage might

Everyone wants to know if the housing market will continue to slide, accelerate credit deterioration, wreck the economy, depress stock prices and push the

American economy toward a breathtaking hard landing. That's a great question for the September-October period, when panics often have taken place in our nation's economic history.

The answer is really not complicated, and the bad news is really good news -- if you have a grip on what is likely to take place.

After the technology bubble burst in 2000, the Federal Reserve did a great job of saving the day. Short-term interest rates were slashed and the public did not suffer the fate that could have depressed business for years. A huge pool of money was released at an increasingly smaller cost. It was the era of refinancing home mortgages.

In every period of our economic history there is some unique factor that seems to control the business destiny of America. The 1980s witnessed an avalanche of institutional money coming off the sidelines into equities that pushed the Dow over 1,000 after 16 years of lethargic indifference to the stock market. That was followed by the technology boom of the 1990s. Isn't it amazing how easy it is to characterize everything when you have the luxury of hindsight?

Well, that's OK, because it is also possible to see much of this in the present, and there is no doubt that the housing boom that was precipitated by the Fed's low interest rate access is setting up the next big shift in America's markets. Oh, yes, and don't forget the big question: Will housing send our economy into a nosedive?

First, consider what the low interest rates did to help us. Remember that the Nasdaq plunge in 2000 wiped out trillions of dollars of wealth. For a moment, the government had giant surpluses and investors were set to retire with unexpected fortunes. Some of those tech-stock buyers probably sold near the top, but most were caught by surprise while waiting for the next round of exciting investment gains.

Bernard Baruch, one of America's famed financial experts, once was asked how he became rich. He replied: "I sold too soon." That's another story, but not unrelated to the problem that we face in 2006.

Anyway, we are still waiting to find out if our houses are about to revolt against us financially and start the next wave of monetary disarray in America. Maybe there's still time to sell out fast and pitch a tent somewhere.

Well, that might not be necessary, but it depends on your relationship to interest rates and the refinancing binge of the last decade. Really, it is not your house that will get you, but it is your loan status that is at the heart of America's latest conundrum.

Look at it this way: Many people have succumbed to the promise of an easy fix. The advertisements were everywhere. Refinance your house; pay off your credit cards; take a vacation; buy a flat-screen TV projection system that will turn your house into an entertainment palace; and then take the rest of the cash and buy anything.

Here is the problem. It is not that everyone wants good things. It is that the country has to figure out how to manage its debt. The national government is fine; it can print what it needs in a pinch. Consumers, however, have a slightly different problem. So here is the answer to the big question: Your house is not about to go on a rampage against anyone, but there is a debt issue that will not go away quietly.

Keep in mind the country's negative savings rate. Americans spend more than we earn each month, a phenomenon that has not been seen since the Great Depression. We are facing a nasty dilemma related to our deteriorating capital base. The good news is that you will love the next buying opportunity; the bad news is that you won't like how we get there.

We can point fingers and raise many questions, but the fact is that we borrowed a whole lot of money from our houses, paid off some bills and then did what the government asked. We kept spending so that the economy would not die. How long can we keep doing this? We are going to find out the answer in due time.

Meanwhile, it is September and the financial markets are fairly quiet. The Dow and the S&P are near four-year highs, gasoline prices are falling off a cliff and all is right in the world.

Nevertheless, Bernard Baruch reminds us how he got rich, and America must be clever enough to figure out the danger of sucking out all of the country's home equity to pay for a fun trip.

No, your house won't get you, but that zero-percent loan for a gazillion dollars might have one heck of a bite.

http://www.stltoday.com/
stltoday/business/
stories.nsf/story/
964F51BE93D79907862571
EA007A1C5E?OpenDocument; September 17, 2006 11:56 PM
Anonymous said...: Housing bust will take toll on borrowers

Home-price increases may have been strong, but growth in mortgage debt has been stronger.

Jay Diamond of Annaly Capital Management Inc., an asset-management company and mortgage real-estate investment trust in New York, estimates that $1.2 trillion of the $2.3 trillion Americans borrowed last year was home-mortgage debt.

Almost half of that $1.2 trillion, or some $500 billion, was used to buy cars, bigger-screen TVs, water toys. Americans have always talked about credit-card debt as our big national problem, but credit-card debt owed is about a tenth that of mortgage debt outstanding.

"Without home-price appreciation to collateralize borrowing debt, the consumer has lost spending dollars," Diamond says.

Historically, real estate analysts looked at the construction industry first, such as new housing starts, when they tried to measure what was happening in the economy. Diamond thinks that home-equity loans are where to look, and that the slowdown in equity extraction will exacerbate any decline more than many analysts expect. The lifestyle of borrowing, he said, "is about to become last year's model."

Even if real estate's landing is a soft one, there will be cultural consequences. One reason Americans tolerate gaps in income between higher and lower earners so well is their sense of possibility. Most of us still believe that anyone can become rich. Buying your own house is part of that, and today home-ownership rates are close to record levels. Because many newer owners hold questionable, exotic mortgages, they will be the first ones hurt.

For American professionals – doctors living their own lakeside soap operas, lawyers, teachers, accountants – this story has a special twist. Some people who got the same grades they did in school moved into the financial world, earning salaries that were many times higher. Some time in their 30s or 40s, these other professionals finally comprehended the opportunity cost of what they have passed up.

After all, when they made the choice to go to medical school back in 1981 they thought they were going to miss out on something like the stock market of the 1960s and 1970s, not a market like the 1980s or the 1990s.

At the same time, at least in the case of doctors, has come a downgrading of their professional status. One doctor I knew once handled his frustration at being forced into a Health Maintenance Organization by buying stock in that HMO. Another, more cynical doctor sold short stock in his. Many professionals went into denial, and made real estate their stock exchange.

At night they trolled Realtor.com the same way market traders trolled databases during the day. Sure they have retirement plans. But housing became their joy, their consolation, and their source of shopping cash. They prayed they would be clever enough to trade at the peak of a market in which they were the players. This year, they are realizing that they missed their moment.

The next big news may be a true real-estate slump, as hundreds of billions in adjustable-rate mortgages reset. There could be serious trouble as first-time homebuyers find a thumbnail shot of the French doors they just put in on RealtyTrac.

The question of whether a housing implosion, if it comes, will bring an economic recession, is open. There is even good news in this story. Today, home affordability indexes are at lows – many Americans can't afford to buy. A decline will put houses within their reach.

One thing is also clear. For many Americans, real estate is already a market of regret.

http://www.ocregister.com/
ocregister/money/housing/
article_1277790.php; September 18, 2006 12:14 AM
Anonymous said...: Keith

Your webpages are frequently in disarray with the most recent posts nowhere to be found. Not even in the archives.; September 18, 2006 12:14 AM
Anonymous said...: Watch Million Dollar Listing on Bravo Channel!!!!!

Saw It, Just.
It was sickning.
74,000.00 commission for 1 deal. The RE guy was a low life.; September 18, 2006 12:21 AM
Anonymous said...: HOUSING MARKET: LV PRICES SKY-HIGH?

Two studies say housing vastly overpriced; local real estate observers disagree with data

When housing values in Las Vegas ballooned 54 percent in 2004, economists couldn't agree: Was the surge a result of basic supply and demand, or was it a speculative bubble destined for a major burst?

Two national analysts say they've now pinpointed exactly how much hot air is in local real estate values.

Ingo Winzer, president of Local Market Monitor in Massachusetts, weighed national and area home prices and the average national and local incomes to generate what he calls the equilibrium home price -- the value at which housing costs are in balance with underlying economic factors.

Winzer's calculations show that Las Vegas has an average home price of $296,500, well above the $231,000 average that he said economic fundamentals warrant. That means Las Vegas is 28 percent overpriced, in Winzer's view.

A joint study from Massachusetts economic consulting firm Global Insight and Ohio bank National City Corp. portrays an even bleaker picture of housing inflation in Las Vegas.

Economists at the companies developed a ratio that assessed housing values between the first quarter of 1985 and the first quarter of 2006. They measured four indicators: household population density, to determine land scarcity; the going interest rate on conventional mortgages, to gauge the effect borrowing costs have on home prices; relative income, based on the premise that higher-income buyers are more likely to spend a larger share of their earnings on housing than are lower-income homeowners; and a "constant" that controls for historical differences in price-to-income ratios that the previous three determinants don't explain.

Their conclusion: Las Vegas home prices, at a median of $282,600, are 41.8 percent higher than they should be. The last time the study's authors say the local market came close to a healthy value was in the first quarter of 2004, when the median was $188,600 and homes were 6.1 percent overvalued.

Neither analysis sits well with local real estate watchers.

"I was looking for the nuances in our market, and I didn't quite see them in that 27-page (Global Insight-National City) report," said Linda Rheinberger, president of the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors and owner of One Source Realty and Management. "I found it to be interesting reading, but I didn't see how it pertains to our market."

http://www.reviewjournal.
com/lvrj_home/2006/
Sep-17-Sun-2006/
business/8850620.html; September 18, 2006 12:22 AM
Anonymous said...: Why was a permit issued to the developer then?

That is an easy question to answer. Tax Base Increases. Gov. goes cha ching.
The area was where the poor could afford a lake view. Gentrification is good for the Tax Appraisals.
Bye Bye Trailers, Hello McMansions with a view.; September 18, 2006 12:26 AM
Anonymous said...: Leading U.S. home builders appear to have adopted one of two strategies to endure a rapidly deteriorating housing market, based on differing bets on just how long the slump will last and how bad it will get.

In one camp -- which includes Hovnanian, Lennar and D.R. Horton -- are companies that will prop up home sales by cutting prices.

In the other -- including Toll Brothers, KB Home and Ryland -- the companies plan to hold prices steady but sell fewer homes, to protect operating margins.

Thrivent analyst Keith Gangl said the price-keepers reflect an optimism that things will improve soon, while price-cutters take a more pessimistic view.

"It all depends on how comfortable you are with the outlook," Gangl said.

Analysts prefer that builders use price reductions as a last resort and warn that they could suffer the same fate as the car industry.

"You don't want your customers to get used to aggressive incentives," J.P. Morgan analyst Michael Rehaut said. "Obviously, the auto industry has continued to find itself in that position and it's not a good position to be in."

On Wednesday, Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., which builds high-end homes, said orders in its quarter to July 31 fell 26 percent from a year earlier. While the year-over-year results were eye-catching, the fall was not as bad as expected and the stock rose 6 percent the next day.

The company discounted prices in weaker markets -- such as southeast Florida, which went from one of last year's hottest markets to what Chief Executive Ara Hovnanian called either "the worst market in the country" or one of the worst.

Hovnanian was able to keep its orders up because it increased the number of developments it built to 436. It expects to end its fiscal year on October 31, with 440 communities, 20 percent more than last year.

"It is clear that the significant decline in our pace of net contracts per community has been partially offset by our growth in communities, which has kept our absolute number of sales from falling more substantially," CEO Hovnanian said in a conference call with analysts.

But net contracts per community stood at 7.7, down almost 40 percent from a year earlier and the lowest in 10 years.

D.R. Horton Inc. and Lennar Corp., who report results in the upcoming months, have followed the price-cutting playbook closely.

On Friday, Lennar warned that its use of incentives was one of the reasons that earnings for the most recent quarter would fall short of its prior forecast. But it also said orders declined only 5 percent for the same reason.

"Horton and Lennar are two of the most tenured management teams, said UBS analyst Margaret Whelan. "You would think they'd be the best operators in a correction like this. It's the worst strategy. They're going to have the most margin erosion because of that."

Raymond James analyst Rick Murray said he anticipates price cuts and incentives would erode Lennar's gross margins to 18.9 percent from 25 percent last year.

"But if the market gets much worse in '07 and '08, Horton is going to look like the smartest guy in the room," Whelan said.

In the other camp are luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc., KB Home and Ryland Group Inc., which have all seen orders tumble but have tried to maintain their prices.

On Wednesday, KB cut its forecast and said orders were down 43 percent. Neither KB nor Ryland has yet reported their latest quarter.

Though they resisted cutting price tags, these builders are giving buyers more for their money. Toll offers "incentives" such as better countertops or a break on the buyer's mortgage. Although gross margins declined 410 basis points, they still topped 29 percent, analysts said.

However, Toll issued a forecast that implied new orders will start to significantly improve over the next two quarter.

But Raymond James' Murray had his doubts, given that Toll's orders fell 48 percent in the most recent quarter.

"We believe a rebound in fundamentals is not in the foreseeable future," he said.

http://impactlab.com/
modules.php?name=News&file=
article&sid=9205; September 18, 2006 12:34 AM
Anonymous said...: Housing sector low signals US slowdown

The housing industry is the leading edge of a US economic slowdown that will prompt Federal Reserve policy makers to keep interest rates steady, reports this week are forecast to show.
Builders started work on homes at an annual rate of 1.75 million last month, the fewest since April 2003, according to the median estimate in a survey of economists before a report Tuesday from the Commerce Department. Construction permits probably dropped to a four-year low.

Fed policymakers will have those statistics in hand when they meet Wednesday to discuss the course of interest rates. A report last week showed price pressures moderated in August, opening the way for central bankers to hold rates steady for a second month to allow time to assess the extent of housing's affect on the economy.

"Housing will ensure economic growth and employment growth will dip," said Zoltan Pozsar, an economist at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania. "The Fed is concerned because they don't want to overdo it."

The central bank at their meeting last month ended a string of 17 consecutive interest-rate increases that started in June 2004. The increases eventually boosted mortgage rates, which contributed to the slowdown in home sales and construction, economists said.

The average rate on a one-year adjustable mortgage reached 5.83 in the first week of July, up from a low of 3.36 percent in March 2004, according to figures from Freddie Mac, the No2 buyer of US mortgages. The rate on 30-year fixed mortgages also rose about 1 percentage point during that time.

Builders have suffered the consequences of higher rates. Lennar, the second-largest US homebuilder by market value, last week said profit fell for the first time in six years during the quarter ended August 31. The slump in demand forced the company to offer incentives to buyers.

The Miami-based builder said net new orders fell about 5 percent, less than competitors KB Home or Beazer Homes, which reported declines of more than 40 percent.

The National Association of Home Builders will report its measure of builder sentiment today. The index probably fell to 31 this month, the lowest in 15 years, from 32 in August, economists forecast. Readings lower than 50 mean builders view conditions as poor.

Central bankers are keeping a close watch on the slowdown in housing to ensure that it stays orderly, San Francisco Fed Bank president Janet Yellen said last week.

All 105 economists surveyed forecast the Fed will hold its target for the overnight lending rate between banks at 5.25 percent.

http://www.thestandard.
com.hk/news_detail.asp?
pp_cat=22&art_id=27507&sid=
9932048&con_type=1; September 18, 2006 12:44 AM
Anonymous said...: Central bankers are keeping a close watch on the slowdown in housing to ensure that it stays orderly, San Francisco Fed Bank president Janet Yellen said last week.

From 'there is no bubble' to 'watching an orderly slowdown'.

Doesn't the truth feel better?; September 18, 2006 12:55 AM
Anonymous said...: Some 'flippers' stick it out
Fewer handle homes like hot cakes these days; some still like challenge.

Cara Peracchi Douglas doesn't scare easy.

The former public relations professional has entered the house-flipping game at a curious time.

The once-sizzling Fresno real estate market has cooled, and investors who grew accustomed to a quick sale and a tidy profit have scattered.

Statewide statistics show that flipping homes — the buying and rapid selling of residential property for a tidy profit — has declined to its lowest level in three years.

In Fresno, the number of homes sold that had been owned six months or less fell to 2.6% during the second quarter of 2006, compared with 5% in the first quarter of 2005.

And while flipping hasn't gone away entirely, it's become more challenging. Appreciation rates in the central San Joaquin Valley have slowed, more homes are listed for sale, and they are sitting on the market longer.

"It isn't over and done with entirely," said Mike Ela, a real estate analyst based in San Juan Capistrano.

The problem is that with any type of market, whether it is real estate or stocks and bonds, if you pick the wrong time to be involved, the likelihood of losing money is heightened.

Douglas said she realizes her timing is not great. But she wasn't able to pursue her passion for renovating homes and real estate investing until receiving a small inheritance about six months ago.

"After that I jumped on it," she said.

Admittedly, she's made mistakes, such as laying sod on one of the hottest days in July.

"It must have been 116 degree that day," she said with a laugh. "We started out at 4 a.m., but some of it still didn't make it. Hey, I grew up in Half Moon Bay, and my front yard was ice plants."

http://www.fresnobee.com/
business/real_estate/
story/
12725736p-13421362c.html; September 18, 2006 1:02 AM
Anonymous said...: *******MILLION DOLLAR LISTING **** on Bravo channel!

Just saw episode that caused me to have an episode!!!!!

Truth is stranger than fiction...this show was proof positive!!!!

Sellers who will not budge $1 on 2.7mil

One guy realtor was pretty professional (older,bald w/greybeard) but some of the others....Oy!

One 40ish heavyset shavedhead agent was such a poser! What a creap...i wouldn't have him represent me if i had to!!!!!

Ya gotta see this to believe it!; September 18, 2006 1:40 AM
Anonymous said...: I meant Creep! Sorry, my bad?; September 18, 2006 1:41 AM
Anonymous said...: Condo slowdown trips up bulk buyers

The three men behind The Formula, which bought condos in bulk and flipped them, turned hefty profits when the market was good. When it fell, they turned against each other.

Back when condos were still hot, mom-and-pop investors all over South Florida waited overnight in lines that snaked around the streets just for a chance to buy in.

Not the men behind The Formula, a company that bought condos in bulk directly from developers and flipped them. These three -- a paralegal with a taste for fancy cars and the heirs to a Dunkin' Donuts fortune -- made millions until the market turned, and they turned against each other.

The story of The Formula offers a glimpse into the billion-dollar game of large-scale condo speculating that played out from South Florida and the Caribbean to Las Vegas, waged in the shadows of the condo frenzy far from the eyes of ordinary buyers. It also raises questions about how much of the condo market is built on the greed of gamblers -- and how deep and long the downturn will go because of it.

The owners of The Formula say they simply meet the needs of developers, bankers and investors -- even in a down market. But real estate analysts say speculation, which accounted for 40 to 80 percent of the condo boom by some estimates, fosters a herd mentality that sends investors fleeing the market as quickly as they stampeded in.

Speculators made it look like there was a real demand for condos and paved the way for buildings that never would have gone up otherwise, some say. Now, the danger is they will leave empty condos and tanking prices in their wake.

''You just can't build so many tomorrows of supply and generate these tremendous price appreciation levels and not pay the piper,'' says veteran real estate analyst Lew Goodkin. He predicts the market will soften enough by next summer to offer opportunities for bargain-hunting buyers.

Five years ago, The Formula's leaders -- Brian Neiman, Farhan Naseer and Kashif Shaukat -- were the best of friends. Cousins Naseer and Shaukat took over a slew of Dunkin' Donuts franchises from their families, according to court documents. They claimed the stores brought in some $120 million in revenues over two decades before they were sold.

http://www.miami.com/mld/
miamiherald/15536801.htm; September 18, 2006 2:08 AM
Anonymous said...: Home Sellers Turn Creative

Selling your house is no longer a piece of cake. The word on the street is don't sell unless you absolutely have to. Sellers throughout the Santa Clarita Valley are going to extremes to attract buyers.

A man in Canyon Country offers to include his late-model Lincoln Town Car for anyone who purchases his house. Another local seller has Friday movie nights for anyone who wants to come by and experience his home theater - popcorn included.

In stark contrast to the bidding wars and buying frenzy that drove house prices up last August, home sellers now can wait months for an offer and it is usually below their already reduced asking price. After five years of rabid real estate speculation that pushed the average person out of the housing market, savvy homebuyers are now playing a waiting game while scanning the multiples to find the best house for the lowest price.

Overall, the situation is desperate enough to compel developers and sellers to offer incentives and perks unheard of nine months ago.

According to Tracy Hauser, a real estate agent for RE/Max in Valencia, builders are starting to offer incentives such as cars and vacations to potential homebuyers.

"There is lots of money sitting on the sidelines right now," she said. "People will buy houses when they see a good deal."

K. Hovanian Homes at Stetson Ranch is holding an open house today with refreshments where, according to Sales Agent Raquel Marchant, they will announce a price reduction of $30,000 to $50,000 for homes between 2,800 and 3,900 square feet starting in the low $700,000s.

"What happened is people got greedy," Hauser said. "It is a backlash of the greed factor. Sellers are a little more open now because they don't have people beating each other over the head to buy their property. So now buyers have wonderful choices; last year there was low inventory and people were wanting to buy, which drove the prices up."

But for the average homeowner trying to sell their house, they are in direct competition with speculators, those who can afford to sit on a house while motivated sellers must drop the price around them. Houses that last year sold in fewer than 24 hours now take up to six months, with 90 days as the average.

Just ask Cindy Schwanke, who quit her job as a pastry chef to devote herself to selling her home. To create a memorable experience and increase its appeal, she bakes cupcakes for people who come to her open houses. She and her husband, Paul, listed their three bedroom, two and a half bath home built in 1990 in a quiet neighborhood in Castaic for $629,000.

Schwanke said the house has been upgraded with Italian tile in the entry, has RV and boat access and no CCRs or association fees. In spite of her cupcakes, Schwanke said she had no one show up during a recent Saturday open house.

She wonders where all the buyers have gone.

She is ready to call in the Feng Shui master.

http://www.the-signal.com/
?module=
displaystory&story_id=
32837&format=
html; September 18, 2006 2:46 AM
Anonymous said...: What pisses me of is no matter what price you finally settle on, the agent gets their 6%

The house sells itself, what did they, other than some paper shuffling and brown-nosing do?

They tell you to start high, it doesn't move, drop the price...on their recomendation of course, it sells...... 6%

Nowadays though, with nobody buying
i guess 6% of nuthin' is still nuthin'

How long til you see 4% budget cuthroats!; September 18, 2006 3:28 AM
Anonymous said...: Home prices could be safe house for U.S. economy

With the aging bull market hanging on the outcome, economists are busily calculating the likely impact of the fast-deflating housing bubble on consumer spending.

The immediate fate of stocks and the economy seemingly rests on the ability of domestic house prices to avoid anything close to a 1930s-style freefall. Though speculative pockets of the real estate market already are experiencing sharp declines, the median national house price has not fallen meaningfully since the Great Depression.

Next year could be the end of that streak.

Unfortunately, a study of house price patterns in the 20th century is inconclusive. While one Federal Reserve research paper found that two-fifths to two-thirds of global housing booms between 1970 and 2001 ended in busts, there is no historical precedent for the magnitude of gains enjoyed by homeowners since the late 1990s.

At least, until very recently.

The latest housing bubble was a global phenomenon, with Australia and Britain each experiencing gains similar to those in America. According to the Economist magazine, house prices nearly tripled in Britain over the last decade and roughly doubled in the U.S. and Australia during that same period.

Back to the future
What makes a comparison of house prices in those countries intriguing is that the Aussie and British cycles are about two years ahead of the United States. In 2003, house prices were rising by about 20% in Britain and Australia. Shortly thereafter, the Aussie and British rates nosedived toward zero, just like the U.S. pattern in recent quarters.

So has the apparent demise of housing bubbles overseas led to recessions? No, but some caveats need to be mentioned.

The commodity-driven Aussie economy has been bolstered by steadily climbing metals prices, offsetting some of the recessionary impact of its weakening housing sector. Still, Australian Gross Domestic Product did fall from 3.6% in 2002 to 1.3% in the latest quarter, even though unemployment remains at a record low.

In Britain, economic growth has returned to near 2003 levels despite the subsequent drop in the rate of house-price gains. More recently, however, Britain's housing sector has gotten a second wind, with house prices rising at about a 6% year-over-year pace.

However, the wealth effect from housing played a much bigger role in stoking consumer demand in the United States than in Britain. By some accounts, the housing boom in America may have been responsible for up to half the nation's economic growth over the last two years through its stimulative effect on cash-out mortgage refinancing and home equity loans.

Meanwhile, savings rates in Australia and Britain remained fairly solid, providing consumers with cash to keep spending even after the real estate market cooled.

If U.S. house prices follow the British pattern and turn up again after flirting with negative growth, the domestic economy almost certainly will avoid a recession in the near term.

Since June, the U.S. bond market has functioned in its historic role as a pressure valve for the economy, with Treasury yields declining by about 0.5 percentage point amid signs that the nation's economic pulse was weakening. As government bond yields declined, mortgage rates have fallen as well, helping to prop up the sagging housing sector.

Seeking that soft landing
Given that bond yields could fall further if the economy continues to slow, it is possible that lower mortgage rates will patch the leaky housing bubble for a time.

In that scenario, the economy would enjoy the kind of soft landing that central bankers dream about, but that requires an uncommon amount of skill and luck.

My sense is that Americans are unaware of how out of line house prices are relative to standard measures of valuation, even adjusted for low interest rates.

Retail investors also are complacent about the risks that a deflating housing bubble pose to stocks and the economy. Unlike crashes and bear markets on Wall Street, most people have never lived through a period of plunging house prices.

The recent history of housing excesses overseas offers a glimmer of hope that the United States can escape its latest financial imbalance with only an economic slowdown.

Yet there also are enough differences between the macroeconomic context in which real estate booms ended in Australia, Britain and the U.S. to remain concerned that the average domestic house price could soon be falling at the fastest rate in 70 years.

http://www.jsonline.com/
story/
index.aspx?id=498455; September 18, 2006 3:28 AM
Anonymous said...: Enough with the incentives already!!!!

I'm not interested in a plasma, or a purple pt cruiser, or a vacation to wherever.........just lower the price already!; September 18, 2006 3:30 AM
Anonymous said...: Washington Mutual, Countrywide Head to Europe for Covered Bonds

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Washington Mutual Inc., the largest U.S. savings and loan, is heading to Europe's corporate debt market for cheaper financing in its biggest bond sale.

Washington Mutual will be the first U.S. lender to sell so- called covered bonds, securities backed by loans and guaranteed by the issuer. The Seattle-based company may offer as much as 3 billion euros ($3.8 billion) this week, said Fitch Ratings. That would be the company's biggest offering of securities with a fixed-interest rate, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

COMPANIES THAT SELL COVERED BONDS MAY SAVE ABOUT 9 BASIS POINTS IN ANNUAL INTEREST COMPARED WITH U.S. MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES, according to data compiled by Merrill Lynch & Co.

LOWER FINANCING COST MAY
HELP SAVING AND LOAN
INSTITUTIONS BOOST PROFITS
AS THE END OF THE FIVE-YEAR HOUSING BOOM REDUCES DEMAND FOR HOME LOANS.

``We're looking at it with interest,'' said Vincent Breitenbach, managing director of treasury finance for Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage provider, ``We'll watch what other people do and learn from their experiences,'' he said in an interview from New York.

Sales of covered bonds in Europe backed by U.S. home loans may exceed 20 billion euros a year by 2008, said Christoph Anhamm, a Frankfurt-based analyst at ABN Amro Holding NV, one of three banks organizing Washington Mutual's sale.

The securities, also known as pfandbriefe, typically get top AAA credit ratings by requiring borrowers set aside assets that can be sold to pay investors and increasing collateral as needed.

Housing Slump

European covered bonds have beaten U.S. mortgage-backed securities in three of the last four years, returning an average 17.9 percent during the period, according to data tracked by Merrill Lynch.

That compares with an average 16.5 percent return for a Merrill index of 285 U.S. mortgage-backed securities.

Washington Mutual may sell about 20 billion euros of debt in Europe, Robert Williams, the company's treasurer, said in an interview.

``The covered bond market is a very deep, vast market and naturally fits the type of collateral and balance sheet we have,'' said Williams. ``The more sources of funding you have, the more stable your risk profile.''

Washington Mutual, founded in 1889 to help fund rebuilding after a fire in Seattle's financial district, offers consumer and commercial banking services throughout the U.S. It had $351 billion of assets at the end of June, of which more than $200 billion was loans to individuals, Bloomberg data show.

Frederick the Great

The 1.8 trillion-euro market for covered bonds -- which started in 1769 when King Frederick the Great of Prussia needed to rebuild the country after the Seven Years War against Austria and Saxony -- finances about 17 percent of European Union home loans, according to the European Mortgage Federation. Banks increased sales 52 percent since 2000, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Washington Mutual has issued bigger floating-rate notes, the last being $4 billion of mortgage-backed securities offered in December 2005, Bloomberg data show.

The National Association of Realtors, the U.S. real estate industry's largest trade group, cut its 2006 forecast for home sales, and expects prices to fall for the first time since 1993.

The decline in the U.S. real estate market reduced mortgage applications to a four-year low in July, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Higher Yield

The slowdown may prompt investors to demand a higher yield than they would on covered bonds sold by European companies, said Max Beinhofer, who helps manage 12 billion euros of covered bonds at Deutsche Asset Management in Frankfurt.

``We expect a risk premium for the U.S. collateral,'' said Beinhofer. ``The advantages for European investors of diversification might be offset by the risk of a slowdown in the U.S. housing market.''

WASHINGTON MUTUAL IS PLEDGING MORTGAGE DEBT AS COLLATERAL, RATHER THAN THE HOME LOANS USED IN EUROPEAN COVERED BONDS, according to Fitch.

Payment of the mortgage bonds depends in part on the U.S. real estate market.

HBOS Plc, the U.K.'s biggest mortgage lender, is paying 4.375 percent interest a year on 1.5 billion euros of 10-year covered bonds sold in July.

The yield was 4.06 percent on Sept. 14, or about 5 basis points more than the 10-year mid-swap rate in euros, a benchmark for pricing securities.

The bonds are rated AAA by Moody's Investors Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Investors. A basis point is 0.01 of a percentage point.

Barclays Capital is advising Washington Mutual, according to S&P. ABN Amro and Deutsche Bank AG are helping to sell the securities. Moody's, S&P and Fitch say they will give the securities AAA ratings.

"EVERY SINGLE U.S. BANK THAT HAS MORTGAGES ON ITS BALANCE SHEET IS LOOKING AT THIS MARKET AND EVALUATING WHETHER THE PRODUCT IS SUITABLE,"

said Stefan Dreesbach, head of debt capital markets for frequent borrowers at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London.

``Every bank that has a European operation probably has people out on the road talking to U.S. borrowers.'

http://www.bloomberg.com/
apps/news?pid=
20602093&sid=
afTU_1B2AvZk&refer=rates; September 18, 2006 4:07 AM
Anonymous said...: Saturday's WAPO - record numbers of new realtors in the Washington/Baltimore region. ???; September 18, 2006 4:13 AM
Anonymous said...: Will COVERED BONDS give the Mortgage industry their support back?

http://www.forsakencraft.com/easy.wav; September 18, 2006 5:15 AM
Anonymous said...: COVERED BONDS

In Europe exists a type of asset-backed bonds called "covered bonds" (commonly known by the German term Pfandbriefe). Pfandbriefe were first created in 19th century Germany when Frankfurter Hypo began issuing mortgage covered bonds. The market has been regulated since the creation of a law governing the securities in Germany in 1900.

The key difference between Pfandbriefe and mortgage-backed or asset-backed securities is that banks that make loans and package them into Pfandbriefe keep those loans on their books.

THIS MEANS THAT WHEN A COMPANY WITH MORTGAGE ASSETS ON ITS BOOKS ISSUE THE COVERED BOND ITS BALANCE SHEET GROWS, WHICH IT WOULDN'T DO IF IT
ISSUED AN MORTGAGE BACK SECURITY (MBS), ALTHOUGH IT MAY STILL GUARANTEE THE SECURITIES PAYMENTS.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
Mortgage-backed_security

Covered bonds are a debt securities backed by cashflows from mortgages or public sector loans. They are similar in many ways to asset backed securities created in securitisation but covered bond assets remain on the issuer’s balance sheet.

Essentially, a Covered Bond is a corporate bond WITH ONE IMPORTANT ENHANCEMENT: RECOURSE TO A POOL OF ASSETS THAT SECURES OR "COVERS" THE BOND IF THE ORIGINATOR (USUALLY A FINANCIAL INSTITUTION) BECOMES INSOLVENT.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
Covered_bond; September 18, 2006 5:58 AM
Anonymous said...: So if a borrower house prices goes down how is the bond covered?

In other Countries that use Covered Bond don't the Home Buyer normally has to cover the bond if his/her asset price goes down?

WASHINGTON MUTUAL IS PLEDGING MORTGAGE DEBT AS COLLATERAL, RATHER THAN THE HOME LOANS USED IN EUROPEAN COVERED BONDS, according to Fitch.

Covered bonds are a debt securities backed by cashflows from mortgages or public sector loans. They are similar in many ways to asset backed securities created in securitisation but covered bond assets remain on the issuer’s balance sheet.

Essentially, a Covered Bond is a corporate bond WITH ONE IMPORTANT ENHANCEMENT: RECOURSE TO A POOL OF ASSETS THAT SECURES OR "COVERS" THE BOND IF THE ORIGINATOR (USUALLY A FINANCIAL INSTITUTION) BECOMES INSOLVENT.; September 18, 2006 6:20 AM
Anonymous said...: Does anyone know the answer to this question:

In the state of Florida, if someone owns a condo and they purchased it for ,say, $500,000 (probably a sucker) and the annual property tax was, say $3000 - then if, say that person sold the property to me at, say $250,000 once the bottom completely falls out, would my tax be the same $3000 he paid on the property he bought for $500,000 or would the tax adjust to around $1500 because I paid half that or $250,000 for the condo?

Just a hypothetical - what I want to know is, since I'm waiting on prices to get reasonable (I want to buy a condo for vacation rental), I'm trying to determine where the buy point would be. That is, when I figure all the monthly costs of mortgage, insurance, utilities, maintenance AND taxes then knowing approximately what my rental income would be, I should be able to figure out pretty closely what I could pay for the condo and break even once I begin renting. The tax question above is a piece of that puzzle.

Any Floridians or others know the answer??; September 18, 2006 12:21 PM
Anonymous said...: Anon 12:21:03,

You have a very interesting question about property taxes. I suggest you call the city assessors office in the area where you are looking to buy in the future. They can answer you question. Good luck!

P.S. Share with us your findings, because it will be very informational and will serve as a guide to all interested parties.; September 18, 2006 4:24 PM
Anonymous said...: Anon 12:21:03,

I beg your pardon. I think it's the county assessor's office.; September 18, 2006 4:26 PM
Anonymous said...: Anybody else noticing how long it is taking for zillow to update their data?

In san diego - it hasn't been updated since 9/1/06.

I wonder if they are getting paid off by NAR to hold off on exposing the blood letting. I realize that zillow isn't the most trustowrthy site, but at least it is a somewhat reflective of the actions of the market.; September 18, 2006 5:37 PM
Anonymous said...: SMALL PROBLEM NEED SUGGESTIONS
Sold my over priced Phoenix shitbox to some SUCKER. Thanks Keith for your site, it saved my ass. Now I downsized and moved to a rental house in Orange County, problem is I have to pay $160 a month for storage. Anybody have a better suggestion, it would be appreciated.
BY THE WAY PHOENIX SUCKS; September 18, 2006 6:39 PM
Anonymous said...: What's a good site for reading the horror stories people are going through, flippers, people who can't get out of their houses, etc.?

This site seems to go for all these statistics to say why we are f*cked, but never seems to go for the real people stories.

Bottom line is, where's the pain? I can't find anybody in pain. Please help me find the people in lots and lots of pain.

Thank you.; September 18, 2006 6:55 PM
Anonymous said...: Anon 6:55:57,

"...where's the pain?" Haven't you got one yet?

Anyway. when you see the sales of Prozac gone up, psychiatric office jammed with patients and divorce rates up, you're almost there.; September 18, 2006 7:53 PM
Anonymous said...: rdub9000,

I've e-mailed Zillow. com about it also, but has not responded back. They have been criticized to be fueling the bubble by not reflecting the true market value. In fact not only that their slow, but their way off. I think you're right - NAR might be behind it. If that's the kind of practice they would like to embrace, they're not gonna last long. Under this current situation, CREDIBILITY MATTERS.; September 18, 2006 7:57 PM
Anonymous said...: "...PAY $160 a month for storage."

Sell them through e-bay or garage sale. Save your $160/month and buy only those you would need in the future. After all you're downsizing - right. Again only what you need, no more no less. Good luck and hope it'll help.; September 18, 2006 8:00 PM
Anonymous said...: YOU WANT PAIN
YOU GOT IT JUST GO INTO A LOCAL PHOENIX REALTORS OFFICE< YOU CAN FEEL THE PAIN> IF THAT IS NOT GOOD ENOUGH GO TO A VEGAS REALTOR AND WATCH SOME GREEDY FLIPPER CRY TO HER REALTOR THAT SHE HAS SIX HOUSES WITH ADJ MORT THAT ARE EATING HER ALIVE THAT SHE CAN'T SELL. I REALLY ENJOY SCREWING THE LATE FLIPPERS, BECAUSE THEY SCREWD EVERONE WHO WAS TRYING TO BUY A HOUSE FOR THEIR FAMILY.; September 18, 2006 8:03 PM
Anonymous said...: No, seriously, where's the pain? There don't seem to be any good pain stories around.

Things aren't falling significantly enough to cause any pain.

Pain, pain, pain ... where's the pain?

Where are the f***** borrower stories?; September 18, 2006 8:57 PM
Anonymous said...: Any suggestions bought a home in Az cash, I'd like to sell and downsize, should I try to sell now or wait for next year?; September 18, 2006 9:22 PM
Anonymous said...: Any suggestions bought a home in Az cash, I'd like to sell and downsize, should I try to sell now or wait for next year?

HATE TO TELL YOU BUDDY YOU'RE SCREWED AZ IS FALLING APART AT THE SEAMS--DON'T BELIEVE ME WAIT TO YOU SEE ALL THE LOWBALL OFFERS YOU GET. MOST LIKELY YOU ARE UPSIDE DOWN.; September 18, 2006 9:32 PM
Anonymous said...: " Any suggestions bought a home in Az cash, I'd like to sell and downsize, should I try to sell now or wait for next year?"

Let me know if you plan on doing anything like foreclosing or bankruptcy or freaking out or anything.

Are you losing money? Going broke? Looking for the pain stories in Real Estate now.; September 18, 2006 10:04 PM
Anonymous said...: Pain, pain go away; come again another day; little Richard wants to play. LOL. Is it pain or rain? Ah - they're all the same.; September 18, 2006 10:18 PM
Anonymous said...: Come on, there has to be a good forum somewhere to find flippers in trouble in a panic because they can't sell their house, or Real Estate agents freaking out, or people jumping out of buildings ... there must be SOME PANIC.

Where is the PANIC??? All you guys are posting is conjecture, speculation, etc. etc.

Where are the people FREAKING OUT???; September 18, 2006 10:31 PM
Anonymous said...: PAIN PAIN PAIN
YOU CAN ALWAYS SELL YOUR WIFE's SERVICES>; September 18, 2006 10:38 PM
Anonymous said...: Anon 10:31:16,

You just don't know when to stop, do you? You've got to seek some professional help, because I can tell that you may not have to look further for the answer to your question. I truly think you're one of them victims of the bubble.; September 18, 2006 10:38 PM
Miss Goldbug said...: Anon 12:21:03 said:"In the state of Florida, if someone owns a condo and they purchased it for ,say, $500,000 (probably a sucker) and the annual property tax was, say $3000 - then if, say that person sold the property to me at, say $250,000 once the bottom completely falls out, would my tax be the same $3000 he paid on the property he bought for $500,000 or would the tax adjust to around $1500 because I paid half that or $250,000 for the condo"?

I'm not in Florida, but in Cali and Nevada its always based on a % of the selling price. (every county is different- aprox. 1.3-1.7% of the selling price)

Maybe the Florida assessor's office has a web page with the info you are looking for.

Anyone from Florida with this info on hand?; September 18, 2006 11:04 PM
Larry said...: http://millionairenowbook.blogspot.com/2006/09/call-to-arms.html; September 19, 2006 12:00 AM
Anonymous said...: So the Pope makes a comment about how Islam promotes spreading Isalm through violence...

...and then the Muslim world threatens violence because some old fart's opinion...

Are people in the middle east really that ignorant as well, I through US religous rednecks were the most, I guess not.; September 19, 2006 12:11 AM
Anonymous said...: Zillow is run by the same people that started Expedia and put travel agents out of business, they are now trying to put Home Appraisers out of business because they just rubber stamp the market value on a home.

Zillow is a threat to NAR and the entire Apprasial industry, I hope they suceed.; September 19, 2006 12:16 AM
Anonymous said...: Lauravella:

Are you then saying that property taxes can drop, depending on the last sale activity?

Please confirm.; September 19, 2006 12:42 AM
Anonymous said...: Waltb17

Here is an article on the Japanese
real estate market.

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20060919a1.html; September 19, 2006 2:14 AM
Anonymous said...: don't hold your breath on your taxing authority lowering values on their own. But you have every right to dispute the value assigned. Get your comps and call your appraisal district.; September 19, 2006 3:28 AM
Anonymous said...: KEITH aka 'BiG Momma BoomBoom!; September 19, 2006 5:35 AM
Anonymous said...: WaMu's Move To European Bonds WORRIES Merrill Analyst

Washington Mutual Inc.'s (WM.NYS) issuance of bonds covered by U.S. mortgages in European credit markets, and potential follow-on activity by other U.S. financial institutions, carries risk should the dollar fall as expected, Merrill Lynch & Co. market strategist Richard Bernstein said in a note.

WaMu on Monday became the first U.S. bank to issue 20 billion euros worth of so-called covered bonds in Europe, according to a report in the Financial Times.

The move, should it prove successful, could encourage other U.S. issuers to tap the European market for covered bonds, which has so far been dominated by German and Spanish issuers, the daily said.

Covered bonds are considered more secure than mortgage-backed securities, or MBSs, because the purchasers of the bonds have a direct claim on the issuer's balance sheet.

Partly for this reason, the costs of issuing covered bonds, especially in Europe, are less than issuing MBSs. In addition, the U.S. housing market has been stumbling faster than expected and issuing MBSs may not be as easy, or as advantageously priced, as before.

But Bernstein said he sees the move as a risky bet because he expects the dollar to fall, which would raise the issuer's costs to service euro-denominated debt.

The Merrill strategist pointed out that the global economic imbalances stemming from excessive debt in the U.S., namely the current account deficit, have to be corrected

by either

HIGHER U.S. TAXES,

HIGHER SHORT-TERM RATES,

and/or a

LOWER DOLLAR.

As the first two possibilities seem to be out, policy makers are increasingly relying on a lower dollar, he said.

At the same time, one of the reasons that the imbalance hasn't led to a major crisis for the dollar - as did happen in several emerging-market countries in the past - is that U.S. borrowers rarely denominate their debt in other currencies, which keeps the costs of repayments under control.

"We were accordingly somewhat startled," by WaMu's move, Bernstein wrote. "Cheaper financing by issuing in stronger currencies: Isn't this the financing road many an emerging market has unsuccessfully traveled?"

http://www.newratings.com/
analyst_news/
article_1361195.html; September 19, 2006 6:41 AM
Anonymous said...: US mortgage banks look for Europe funding

US mortgage banks have begun looking to Europe for funding options outside the Federal Home Loan Banking system, in part as a response to PROPOSED CHANGES to how the system is regulated.

The Federal Housing Finance Board, which regulates the 12 home loan banks, issued a proposal in March that would cut dividend payouts until the home loan banks increased their retained earnings. FACING LOWER DIVIDEND PAYMENTS, CUSTOMER BANKS ARE EXPECTED TO SELL THEIR STOCK IN THE HOME LOAN BANKS, IN TURN REDUCING THEIR CAPITAL.

A House Financial Services sub-committee held a hearing to discuss the proposal on Thursday, at which concerns were repeatedly expressed that the plan had the potential to drive members from the FHLB system to seek funding elsewhere. All 12 banks and their customer banks oppose the scheme and have filed more than 1,000 letters against it.

Louis Hagen, chairman of the European Covered Bond Council, said that the current regulatory debate surrounding government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) such as the FHLB system had encouraged several mortgage lenders to reconsider their funding options.

"THE DISCUSSION ABOUT the GSEs has LED TO CONCERNS THAT [THEY] MAY NOT BE A PERMANENTLY CHEAP SOURCE OF
FUNDING," said Mr Hagen.

Washington Mutual, the system's biggest single customer with $55bn of advances at the end of the second quarter, launched its funding diversification programme this week with a European roadshow for a covered bond transaction worth more than EU1bn.

Washington Mutual has already cut its stake in the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco from 38 per cent to 25 per cent of outstanding stock.

The bank's European transaction is part of a planned EU20bn covered bond funding programme and will be the first time that a US institution has tapped Europe's EU1,600bn market for covered bonds, which are backed by mortgages or public sector loans and guaranteed by the issuing bank.

Executives at Washington Mutual said that the covered bond market offered two advantages to institutions with large mortgage books: investor diversification and low-cost funding.

Todd Niemy, analyst at rating agency Standard & Poor's, said that an added advantage of covered bonds was that they allowed the pool of mortgages backing the bonds to stay on the balance sheet.

"This gives the company the flexibility it needs as a retail bank in dealing with its customers, INCLUDING BEING ABLE TO CHANGE THE TERMS OF THE MORTGAGES, WHICH IT WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO DO IF THE MORTGAGE WAS PLEDGED to FHLB or SOLD THROUGH A SECURITISATION," said Mr Niemy.

As a result, if Washington Mutual's issue is successful, other US banks are widely expected to follow suit.

However, Richard Bernstein, chief investment strategist at Merrill Lynch, said Washington Mutual's European covered bond programme may not be the path to cheaper funding for the bank, given the weakness of the dollar versus the euro.

"IF THE DOLLAR FALLS, WHICH APPARENTLY IS INCREASINGLY THE DESIRE OF POLICYMAKERS, THEN SUCH NON-DOLLAR DEBT COULD GET MORE EXPENSIVE FOR A US DOLLAR-BASED BUSINESS," he said.

That consideration may constrain US issuers' use of the European covered bond market unless a dollar-denominated covered bond market is born.

http://www.stocknewsline.com/
PersonalFinance/id_26091/; September 19, 2006 6:51 AM
Anonymous said...: Attention, Speculators: Here's a Lesson from Hong Kong's Housing Bubble
Published: May 18, 2005 from Wharton School of Economic

A new research paper that examines volatility in Hong Kong's residential market between 1992 and 1997 offers interesting insights.

Grace Wong's research explores the Hong Kong housing market, which saw a "real increase" in prices of 50% from 1995 to 1997, followed by a "real decrease" of 57% from 1997 to 2002. (Real increases and decreases refer to changes adjusted for inflation.) Transaction volumes, too, rose dramatically from 68,000 in 1995 to more than 172,000 in 1997, but fell to 85,000 the following year.

Wong says the movements in the underlying market and macro-economic fundamentals in Hong Kong during the period studied do not fully justify the dramatic price upswing or the changes in the volume of trading in homes. She says her study offers "a potentially powerful tool" to define, track and look for evidence of speculative activity in the housing markets. "My paper can be used as adiagnostic tool and not after the fact. We can track these movements when a price upswing is actually happening." That ability, she says, will arm policy makers, developers and others in the housing market to reassess their plans much before a bubble burst. Central banks also could use such real-time market analysis to check for any wonton speculation in the housing market, and intervene with monetary policies like interest rate changes.

So how exactly does the diagnostic tool work? When there are speculative activiities in the asset market, we should see an increase in transaction volume as well," explains Wong. "This positive relationship between turnover and price should be on the top of any positive relationship implied by other theories such as liquidity premium (which states that as assets are traded more liquidly, prices go up.) What I did was make use of a unique data structure that allowed me to separate these stories apart and provide evidence on whether there is speculation." Wong caustions, though, that like other diagnostic tools, this one is probably not perfect.

"The interesting things is, the bubble grows as speculative activities build up," Wong notes. "There is likely to be some speculative demand in the market at all times, but bubbles form only when there is substantial speculation. What we can do is to keep track of changes in turnover volume, separate increases in turnover due to speculation and those due to other factors, and therefore get a sense of how much speculation there is. When there is a frenzy of trading, a red flag should be raised and we should take a careful look at the fundamentals (which are difficult to measure) and housing prices."

Hong Kong is a suitable setting to draw lessons for markets elsewhere in the world, Wong says, for several reasons. It is a metropolitan city much like other major workl cities, and its 1,102 suqare kilometers is about six times the size of Washington, D.C. It has home ownership rates of about 50% and well developed capital markets. The city's large-scale housing complexes allow researchers to work with an empirical framework; that would be more difficult in other situations with low transaction volumes and housing units that are not comparable.

For all the different components of her study, Wong uses a sample size of at least 200 large-scale housing complexes, called estates in Hong Kong. That sample increase to cover data representing up to 320 complexes in select cases. About half the roughly 2.3 million housing units in Hong Knog are provided by the public sector, and most are rental units. Wong's focus is primarily on the other half that are privately owned. The average Hong Kong estate has these characteristics: It is 18 years old and has 291 apartmenet sizes averaging 590 sq. ft. each. Wong's study reveals that average home prices rose from U.S $767 a sq. ft., adjusted for inflation, in the pre-upswing period (July 1993-June 1995) to $992 in the post-upswing period (October 1995 to September 1997).

Wong's choice of that data sample and methodology helped her overcome some challenges that have typically dogged similar studies. She notes that form the Tulip Craze in the Netherlands in the 17th century to the technology stock bubble of the late 1990s, asset pricing models have been questioned. Also, there has been limited literature on speculation in markets because of the difficulties in measuring housing stock is heterogeneous; transaction frequency is typically low; and location and local institutions play a significant role -- such as in specifying zoning laws -- in determining values.

Wong was able to overcome those obstacles by conducting a "within-city" analysis, using data sets covering 200-plus Hong Kong estates. But before arriving at that sample, Wong started out with raw transaction data for all real estate transactions in Hong Kong between 1994 and 1998. She excluded transactions involving non-residential sectors and non-livable space such as car parks to get to her next research stage. That meant going over nearly 350,000 property-level observations such as the settlement prices, gross square footage, building names and street addresses.

Wong provides evidence to underscore her theory of "overconfidence-generatedspeculation" in Hong Kong, supported by a model used in a February 2003 study by Jose Scheinkman and Wei Xiong of Princeton University in their paper, "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles." To test alternative theories on the relationship between speculation and turnover, she uses a model put out by jainping mei of the Stern School of Business at New York University, and Princeton University's Scheinkman and Xiong in their February 2004 paper, "Speculative Trading and Stock Prices: An Analysis of China's A-B Share Premia."

With that armory of data and methodology, Wong was able to establish that the price increases in Hong Kong were not caused by "a simple supply-side story, in whcih a sudden decrease in housing supply or rational expectations of future supply decreases" wer the main culprits. Wong also discovered that so-called fundamental factors -- such as population growth and migration, wage trends, real interest rates and tax structures - did not spark the demand frenzy.

Wong also discounted the possible explanation of a "flight to quality" by investors after studying returns on equity stocks, bonds and foreign exhange. Here, Wong looked at Hong Kong's Hang Seng stock index, where she found the returns to the non-real estate components were at least as high as that to holding residential housing stock. She extended this part of the investigation to track Hong Kong housing prices alongside indices in stock markets in Singapore and Japan. Her finding: While all three experienced a downturn between 1996 and 1998, the "foreign stock market indices (Singapore and Japan) fell much earlier than Hong Kong housing prices, and they did not show the sharp upward movement before the fall." What this told her was that while the housing market crash may have been caused or aggravated by the regional economic downturn, the upswing before 1997 was rooted in factors specific to Hong Kong.

Wong also explored interest rate movements as a possible explanation to rising home prices. Here, she found little evidence to support an argument that cheaper finance may have fueled the boom. The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the U.S. dollar, and so the prime rate is often a reflection of the economic conditions in the U.S. rather than in Hong Kong.

The report is a "work-in-progress," says Wong, who wants to continue with her research and refine her findings. "I want to dig deeper into this story," she notes. Without the benefit of adequate data and analysis, Wong won't allow herself to be drawn into speculation on where the next bubble might be, although she does see some evidence in U.S. coastal city markters including San Francisco and Boston that warrant "suspicion. "She adds, however, that she cannot say "whether it is time to be alarmed, because I haven't studied the data."

http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/
createpdf.cfm?articleid=1194; September 19, 2006 7:37 AM
Anonymous said...: Hong Kong housing crisis of 1997

The middle-income sector in Hong Kong has been squeezed mercilessly by economic restructuring, layoffs and negative property equity. The average loan-to-value ratio was at a prudent level of 52 percent in residential mortgages in Hong Kong in September 1997. With property value falling by 60 percent since 1997, an average negative equity of 12 percent of peak value resulted. In other words, a property with a peak value of US$100,000 now commands a market price of $40,000 and a mortgage of $52,000. If the owner were to walk a way from the property, he or she will still owe the banks $52,000 less what the bank could sell the property for plus foreclosure fees.

http://www.freerepublic.com/
focus/news/769770/posts; September 19, 2006 7:40 AM
Anonymous said...: Covered bonds are on-balance sheet securitizations. There is no transfer of the assets to a special purpose entity. On the other hand, the assets are identified and ring-fenced as per local law, and are placed as a security for the bonds. In the event of bankruptcy of the mortgage originator, the bondholders have recourse against the pool of mortgages over which security interest had been created. In the event of defaults on the mortgages, investors still have a recourse aginst the bond issuer. In other words, investors have a recourse against the bond issuer as well against the collateral - a covered bond is a case of collateralized borrowing by the issuer.

http://www.vinodkothari.com/
covered%20bonds%20article
%20by%20vinod%20kothari.pdf; September 19, 2006 8:01 AM
Anonymous said...: Covered bonds getting increasingly popular

As Basle II makes regulatory capital arbitrage difficult, and IFRS results into increasing convergence between on-balance sheet funding and off balance sheet securitisation, European issuers are finding an incresing love for mortgage bonds, the traditional, typically-European mortgage funding instrument which is on the balance sheet and allows the mortgage investor rights against the mortgage as well as the mortgage originator.

Leading mortgage securitisation company Northern Rock of UK is one of those seeking to aggressively tap the covered bonds market. Abbey National, Bradford & Bingley and Northern Rock have all made use of covered bonds to some extent. But the popularity of covered bonds recently shot up after the UK financial supervisor, FSA, clarified its supervisory capital rules (Pillar 2) in relation to covered bonds vide a letter addressed to the British Bankers' Association, 4th August 2005. This letter clarified that banks may issue covered bonds to the extent of 4% to 20% of their total assets, but if the issuance exceeds 20%, it would in all probability require additional "individual capital ratio", that is, the Pillar 2 capital in addition to the capital required by global capital standards (Pillar 1).

The question of needing additional capital in case of covered bonds arises because there is an inherent guarantee or recourse obligation in case of covered bonds. Some part of the assets (mortgages) get earmarked against specific bonds (covered bonds) and the recourse therefore, against the general assets of the bank.

Covered bonds or mortgage bonds, also known as pfandbriefes and by various other local names, are created under specific statutes (or common law, in case of UK) creating an on-balance sheet funding instrument that gives special bankruptcy-proof rights to investors. As several securitisation transactions revert on the balance sheet under the revised IAS 39 and Basle rules eliminate scope for regulatory capital arbitrage, securitisation transactions seem to be getting less popular as compared to covered bonds.

http://www.vinodkothari.com/
secnews_405.htm; September 19, 2006 8:02 AM
Anonymous said...: Housing starts are falling nicely. 1000000 construction jobs overcapacity. What will all those people do?; September 19, 2006 4:51 PM
Anonymous said...: "Washington Mutual, the system's biggest single customer with $55bn of advances at the end of the second quarter, launched its funding diversification programme this week with a European roadshow for a covered bond transaction worth more than EU1bn."

"Washington Mutual has already cut its stake in the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco from 38 per cent to 25 per cent of outstanding stock."
________________________________

+++++Hmm....Does anybody else have the feeling that WaMu is running scared and trying to protect itself from the bursting of the housing bubble???; September 19, 2006 5:26 PM
Anonymous said...: "Anonymous said...
don't hold your breath on your taxing authority lowering values on their own. But you have every right to dispute the value assigned. Get your comps and call your appraisal district."

Amen to that! You will be waiting till hell freezes before the tax bastards lower your appraisal. Don't you know that real estate only goes up! Here you have to go thru a carefully controlled dog & pony show of "interviews" with people working for the same company that does the appraisals. All this before you get before a tax judge, if ever. So they might shave off a few thousand, big deal! My own appraisal has doubled every year for the last three, and nobody can sell to get out if the wanted too ,now. A bubble affects housing sales in non-bubble areas as well, but has no affect on the state’s/county’s/school board’s arrogance, and greed. “Times are tough, Why should we suffer?”
When you go from $150000 to $490000 in assessments
and the sob's offer to drop it by a laughable $10000 to avoid the case going higher, what do you do. Talked to people who have fought their way thru it. Total Joke!
The local government entities have no concept of collapse. When the taxing as#holes at all levels have finally taken everyone's home away, who is going to pay for their cradle to grave, guaranteed, fat, bloated, undeserved benefits, pensions, and salaries.; September 19, 2006 5:48 PM
Anonymous said...: " Anon 10:31:16,

You just don't know when to stop, do you? You've got to seek some professional help, because I can tell that you may not have to look further for the answer to your question. I truly think you're one of them victims of the bubble."

Yeah, I am a victim of the bubble in a way. I'm a bubble news Junkie, and I'm waiting for the bubble to pop, anxiously waiting, but it is not happening. There is no blood in the streets, no people freaking out and jumping out of buildings, no S&L collapses, just about nothing at all.

Darned dissappointing. The only cool thing was the News guy getting beaten up, but unfortunately that was loan fraud, not really the RE collapse.; September 19, 2006 6:56 PM
Anonymous said...: Just wrote the following note to zillow.com

"How come it is taking you guys longer and longer to update the site? Can I get a cut of the action that you are getting from NAR to delay the posting of new data? But seriously, why is it taking you guys so long to update the site?"; September 19, 2006 6:57 PM
Anonymous said...: It seems like Zillow follows the entire 'closed houses' thing that if you look on Zip Realty, you can see the 'closed houses'.

It seems to take a long time for things to show up on there, like 3 months or something like that.

I wouldn't blame Zillow. It seems like they have to wait until it is closed and shows up in the govt. system someplace.; September 19, 2006 7:02 PM
The Thinker said...: Whats the deal with gold today?; September 19, 2006 8:18 PM
Anonymous said...: Thinker,

here is a link for you.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=a6d3w7bu49Oo&refer=australia

It seems they think gold is suffering do to a government report that inflation is "less of a concern" recently.

I call bullsh*t.

Your thoughts?; September 19, 2006 9:22 PM
Anonymous said...: "do" should be "due".

It also says that the dropping price of oil is bringing it down.

I'm curious why gasoline prices are dropping all of a sudden...why now?

I'm not sure I buy that the newly discovered oil reserve in the gulf of mexico is the culprit - maybe just an excuse to drop prices, but not a valid one. I'm wondering if the gov. is pressuring the oil companies to lower prices in order to downplay inflation...; September 19, 2006 9:26 PM
The Thinker said...: Oil is coming down because the drug dealer's of America's oil addiction know that if the price is too high for too long than people may start to ditch their SUVs.; September 19, 2006 9:47 PM
Anonymous said...: Anon 6:56:49

I like that positive attitude. If you sincerely believe that the bubble hasn't and won't pop, I think it will not. Good luck and watch your health.; September 19, 2006 9:56 PM
Anonymous said...: To the thinker...

Why drop them now though?
Any thoughts?

Perhaps to influence the fed to drop rates (or keep them the same)?
How would this benefit them?; September 19, 2006 10:07 PM
Larry said...: Good time to be a landlord:

According to the New York Times:

1. Landlords are enjoying booming times these days as more people are choosing to rent.

2. The supply of rental units is tight, as many rental units were sold off as condominiums.

3. Rents are rising.

4. Apartment REITs are outperforming all other REIT sectors.; September 19, 2006 10:55 PM
Anonymous said...: How many 'Fast food' jobs are available for the near future out of work construction-oids?; September 19, 2006 11:37 PM
Anonymous said...: "I like that positive attitude. If you sincerely believe that the bubble hasn't and won't pop, I think it will not. Good luck and watch your health."

???

No, I want to find the PAIN. The AGONY. The TORTURE. The flippers with 5 proproperties hopping out of buildings, selling their kids to finance their mortgage, all of that, beating up their neighbors, getting forcibly evicted, all of that, but it's just not happening.

Darned frustrating. Darned bankruptcy laws. Darnit.; September 20, 2006 1:28 AM
Anonymous said...: I SWEAR, my favorite quotes are from these JOKER economists from the NAR and the like who continue to say that prices will only adjust for the next year and will be back to positive in 2008.

If any of these guys actually saw their own data on housing corrections, they would see that housing corrections usually last from 5 to 7 years. We're barely 6 months into it.; September 20, 2006 2:27 AM
Anonymous said...: Get the latest on the real estate & housing bubble -- news from around the country updated daily:

http://www.expertresearch.net/realestate/news.html; September 20, 2006 2:51 AM
Anonymous said...: Poor Anon 1:28!!; September 20, 2006 3:24 AM
Larry said...: Here's the problem. The real estate bubble warnings started in March 2000 (See Wall St Journal). Let's say you bought a house in Scottsdale 30 months ago for $275,000 and got scared out after 6 months at $300,000. Now, today, 12 months later the house appreciated 47% to $441,000. But, you bailed out because you "timed" the bubble. Looking back at California's worse year in the last 30, - 3.79% (1993), and triple it, if the $411,000 house declined by 11.37% ($50,000).....you would be out $90,000 and WHEN WOULD YOU GO BACK IN? Those who decide to actually go back in after being out, help to define and shape a financial bubble.; September 20, 2006 5:40 AM
Larry said...: Robert Shiller, Yale economist, famous for his stockmarket book "Irrational Exuberance" published in 2000 now believes that the housing craze is another bubble destined to end badly."It probably will feel bad when the turndown comes." However, in many areas of the country like Ohio, Pa, Mi, Mn, Wi, upstate NY, Tx, Al, Ak, Ms, etc., there never was a "housing craze".; September 20, 2006 5:41 AM
Larry said...: If housing were to go down, "leveraged" consumers will not be any more levergaed and therefore they do not need to sell.The media is playing a real number on people's psyche regarding the premise that everyone will be selling once real estate stops going up. According to PMI, the number of investor loans taken out increased slightly from 7+% in 2000 to 11% in 2005.; September 20, 2006 5:41 AM
Larry said...: There has never been a Real Estate bubble. Doesn't mean it can't happen now. But, what are the chances that if you bought a house for $500,000 today and the bubble "pops", that it's values goes down to $250,000 or even $150,000? And, can there be a financial bubble if it doesn't pop?; September 20, 2006 5:41 AM
Larry said...: Last spring I attended a Mutual Fund Retirement Seminar in Phoenix. There were about 200 older people there. The host asked everyone to raise their hand if they plan to sell their home and move into a rental unit. About 3 hands went up. How does a real estate bubble pop if everyone remains in their home?; September 20, 2006 5:41 AM
Anonymous said...: Keith you're wrong. Larry Nusbuam is right - there's no bubble.; September 20, 2006 7:10 AM
Anonymous said...: Correction: Nusbaum. Sorry for the mispelling.; September 20, 2006 7:11 AM
Anonymous said...: Anon, your wrong and pathetic. The bust is already here. Starts are almost down below 1.5, the big sign the best will tip the economy into recession.

San Diego has completely blown. First major metro city to do so.; September 20, 2006 3:31 PM
Larry said...: http://millionairenowbook.blogspot.com/2006/06/foreclosure-facts-series-all-7-parts.html; September 20, 2006 4:22 PM
Anonymous said...: Did nusbaum put
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/
down ?
It's off second day..; September 20, 2006 4:26 PM
Roccman said...: Full on line video

http://tinyurl.com/ff32k

Review of "America: Freedom to Fascism"

http://www.freedomt ofascism. com

By Mike Rivero, WhatReallyHappened. com

I finally received a DVD of the full length movie, and watched it last night.

The short review is that if Fahrenheit 9-11 won the "Palm D-Or", then "AMERICA: FREEDOM TO FASCISM" deserves the whole tree! This is the film that F/9-11 aspired to but failed to be.

Far from the extremist screed that its attackers portray it to be, "America" starts out as a genuinely objective search to find out the reality behind the claims of the Tax Honesty movement. In scene after scene, Aaron Russo tries to get the answer to one simple question; what is the law that requires American workers to pay income tax on their wages and salaries. At every turn, he is rebuffed by IRS officials, with one notable exception. Aaron did secure an interview with former IRS Commissioner Sheldon Cohen who makes the amazing statement that US Supreme Court rulings are irrelevant when it comes to interpretation and enforcement of the IRS code, and moreover chides Aaron for refusing to "believe" that he owes taxes. By this time, Aaron and the audience are convinced that the Tax Honesty people are onto something!; September 20, 2006 5:41 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith, maybe you might want to consider producing a documentary movie similar to Michael Moore's F/11, but this one is dedicated to the housing bubble. You can start driving around neighborhoods, and film "for sale" signs, start interviewing people about what they think of the bubble (Richard & Bork can be co-stars), going to psychiatric offices and see if it's a bubble related illnesses, etc. I think you will go down in history, for young generations to learn what greed can do for them.; September 20, 2006 6:25 PM
Steve Waterhouse said...: What a difference a market makes. We are trapped by Toll Brothers in a situation that would have been easily resolved 12 months ago. Read more at www.houseorapt.com; September 20, 2006 6:33 PM
Anonymous said...: Tom, Richard & Tabasco, your Pal's are taking care of the Jews for you.

Palestinian video: 'Martyrs' get paradise with maidens

Palestinian TV encourages suicide attack of Jewish 'monkeys and pigs'
Aaron Klein, WND
Published: 09.20.06, 16:47

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas' state-run television the past few weeks has broadcast a music video in which viewers are encouraged to "martyr" themselves in exchange for eternal paradise and beautiful "maidens."

The Israeli-based monitor Palestinian Media Watch reports the video, airing on television controlled by Abbas' Fatah party, depicts a Palestinian woman who is shot in the back by Israeli soldiers. The woman then is transported to "paradise" where she joins white-robed "maidens" dancing in water while waiting to marry a male Palestinian who "martyrs" himself.

In the next scene, according to PMW, a grieving Palestinian man is shot in the back by Israeli troops while visiting the grave of the woman killed at the start of the video. The man immediately is brought to "heaven" where he is rewarded with several white-robed "maidens," including the original woman he was mourning.

A suicide bomber's prayer
"This recurring image of the martyr being rewarded by receiving the Maidens (is) part of the multifaceted Palestinian Authority campaign glorifying and encouraging terror, and promoting suicide terror as idyllic," states a PMW report.

PMW cites other recent instances in which Palestinian television encouraged suicide terrorism for the reward of paradise ripe with beautiful women.

In one recent video, a Palestinian about to blow himself up among Jewish civilians is depicted reciting a prayer hoping for "paradise."

"Angels of mercy, escort our souls to Heaven after we fulfill this duty of crushing the descendents of monkeys and pigs. Dear father and mother, blessings of honor and respect to you, while you escort me to the Maidens of Paradise as a Martyr," states the soon-to-be suicide bomber.

'All sins are forgiven'
In a sermon broadcast on PA television, Ismail al-Radouan, a prominent Palestinian sheikh, declares, "When the Shahid meets his maker, all his sins are forgiven from the first gush of blood. He is exempted from the torments of the grave; he sees his place in paradise, he is shielded from the great shock, and marries 72 Dark Eyed (Virgins)."

In an interview recently broadcast on Palestinian television, the mother of a real life suicide bomber explains how she had hoped her son would "martyr" himself.

"He (my son) would always dream of Shahada, it was his first and last goal in life. I told him, 'Dear, we all want to be shahids.' He said, 'In this entire world, I can't think of anyone to marry. I want to marry the Dark Eyed (Virgins or Maidens of Paradise).' I said if these are his thoughts, I wish him Shahada (martyrdom)."; September 20, 2006 6:34 PM
Anonymous said...: If anyone needs x windows replacement shell for windows ... Remodeling your home tips and more can be found at http://remodeling11.com/bee.pl?ki=master&remodeling=home; September 20, 2006 9:20 PM
Anonymous said...: The fact is that people have to sell often for various reasons such as having to move to change jobs, divorce, lose a job (this can happen if only one spouse loses a job) and can't afford payments. Two things will push the housing bubble into a bust...a recession and/or tightening of lending standards or money available (interest rates increase). The recession is already well on it's way...and is only called after three months of GDP decline...so look for the official "we're in a recession" to come in April 2007. By then, people will have already been losing jobs at a consistent rate anyway. The housing industry pulled us out of the 2001 recession and now that it's gone (most stats state it consisted of 50% of GDP) the 2007 recession is to follow and be even worse than if they just would have let us recover from the dot com bust with out inflating money. There is only one unanswered question. The dollar has lost ~30% of it's value since 2001, right? These are the stats I have read. Does the U.S. even care about the value of it's dollar anymore? It would seem that the powers that be, do not. Were talking about the federal reserve, here. The way I see it, either interest rates need to start going through the roof, or we all just need to say goodbye to the dollar and the U.S. economy. Or raise interest rates and the housing market tanks quickly and with it the economy. My best guess it the Fed is simply holding their breath and hoping for the best. If they move down, say goodbye, if they move up...say goodbye. Hold and hope for the best? I have read many articles at safehaven.com that simply suggest that there will not be much money to be made, period, in the next few years. The stock market is over-inflated, the housing market is over-inflated, money markets may tank when the housing market tanks, bond won't get you anywere with the low %. All I know is I do have cash and no debt. Where do I put it? Any thoughts?; September 20, 2006 10:40 PM
Anonymous said...: WHO confirms Iraq's third avian flu case

Sep 19, 2006 (CIDRAP News) – The World Health Organization (WHO) has retrospectively recognized Iraq's third human case of H5N1 avian influenza, involving a 3-year-old boy who was hospitalized with a mild illness in March and recovered.

The WHO says the boy was hospitalized in Baghdad but doesn't list his home, the source of his infection, or other details.

The agency said shipment of test samples was difficult during Iraq's H5N1 outbreak, which is now considered over. The boy's initial test results were inconclusive, possibly because of sample deterioration during shipment. Repeated testing with different methods confirmed his infection, the agency said.

The other two human cases in Iraq were fatal ones that occurred in January, involving a 39-year-old man and his 15-year-old niece from the northern province of Sulaimaniyah. H5N1 outbreaks in poultry were confirmed in the area in early February, and a WHO-led team was sent to the scene to assess the situation and support the local response.

In other news, a World Bank expert recently proposed a new estimate of the global financial impact of a flu pandemic: $2 trillion. Jim Adams, who heads the World Bank's avian flu task force, made the projection at the annual meeting of the bank and the International Monetary Fund, according to an Agence France-Presse report 2 days ago. Adams said a severe pandemic could cut the world gross domestic product by more than 3%.

Today, several news services reported an apparently peaceful military coup in Thailand, one of the countries hit hard by H5N1 avian flu in 2004 and 2005. In July, the disease resurfaced in poultry after an 8-month lull, followed by WHO confirmation of two new human cases, both fatal.

Thailand's prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, has been under pressure to step down because of alleged corruption, according to a report today by Cable News Network (CNN). Also, media reports say a separatist insurgency has been raging in the Muslim south of Thailand since 2004, killing 1,700 people.

In a Financial Times article 2 days ago, the United Nations' senior coordinator for avian influenza, David Nabarro, said the ongoing political crisis in Thailand may have weakened the government's response to avian flu outbreaks.

"You don't maintain control over this disease unless there is regular top-level direction from a committed senior political figure that wants to be sure that the necessary activities are being undertaken," Nabarro told the Financial Times.

Thailand has been without a fully functioning government since February, when the prime minister dissolved parliament to stem controversy over his family's financial dealings, the newspaper reported.; September 20, 2006 10:45 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith:

If you're quick you can be the first to post on Ben's now-revived blog; September 20, 2006 10:46 PM
Anonymous said...: fuck you all; September 21, 2006 12:23 AM
Larry said...: autofx in Phx said...
Anonymous said...
Keith you're wrong. Larry Nusbuam is right - there's no bubble.
~
You and Larry Nusbaum are so very wrong, it isn't even funny.

It's tragic that anyone can think in such a defective way, and/or be so ignorant of hard evidence.

I HAVE NEVER SAID THAT THERE IS OR ISN'T A HOUSING OR CREDIT BUBBLE. JUST THAT I DON'T KNOW AND DON'T CARE. WHY DO ALL OF YOU CARE?; September 21, 2006 1:02 AM
Anonymous said...: Larry Nusbaum, don't back pedal now. Your early comments impliedly suggest that you believe, based on your facts presented, that it is contrary to what you're hearing now. Like then Dems, you want to cut and run in this debate. Stand firm on what you believe in. Give us your best opinion guy.; September 21, 2006 1:10 AM
Anonymous said...: Can anyone help me out with these figures (all just guesses on my part at this point)

A. Percentage of Americans that own their homes outright....30%?

B. Percentage that owe less than 50% of September, 2006 "value" of their homes and could survive a 50% price drop....30%?

C. Percentage that owe between 50-80% and would be hurt to various levels by price drops...20%?

D. Percentage that owe 80-100 percent and would be hurt badly by a price drop...10%?

E. Percentage that owe 100-125% and would be devestated by price drop...10%?

And of the E group - how many are going to get hit with APR increases and be thrown into the streets - half of them?

So is it about 5% of the total homeowners that will be killed by a housing market downturn, with other homeowners feeling various levels of discomfort?

Please comment on my assumed percentages.; September 21, 2006 1:50 AM
Anonymous said...: "e number of investor loans taken out increased slightly from 7+% in 2000 to 11% in 2005"

how about 2006?

"How does a real estate bubble pop if everyone remains in their home?"

because not everyone will or can remain in their home and there are a lot more vacant homes than people who can afford them.

Larry i gotta believe you're pulling our leg right? ha ha the joke is on us? yea?; September 21, 2006 1:52 AM
Anonymous said...: anon,

i dont know if your percentages are on or off.

"So is it about 5% of the total homeowners that will be killed by a housing market downturn"

This statement however does not paint a complete picture of who would get "killed". I think there is this initial lash for people that can get priced out but then there are the scores of people that try to sell during the next few years to come that can feel the pain as well.

now your scenarios have less homeowners getting affected as they own more of their house. This is a contradiction.

lastly you tally 5% based on your scenario E however you have omited the percentages from all of your other scenarios. If you tally those up you would come up with a different figure.; September 21, 2006 2:14 AM
Anonymous said...: Bought new home, 1803sq. 1/2ac. in So Cal., in 1993 for $180k.

Sold in 2003 for $375k

Value today 2006= 580k to 620k

3 yrs and I can't even buy my own house back!

And they say, 'There's No Bubble'!

I beg to differ?; September 21, 2006 2:52 AM
Anonymous said...: "Like the Dems you want to cut and run" Again with this? I thought Larry N. would be given a more fact-filled and artful rebuttal. Lar' your points:

1. Buying a home isn't about timing the market. Your talk about when to "get in" and "get out" makes it sound like you work with a lot of speculators. What about regular folks who just want a place to live?

2. Areas that did not experience a housing craze can indeed be affected by the housing bubble, because it is a credit wipeout that will have secondary and tertiary effects on the economy. (Potentially)

3. If we grant the ridiculous notion that fewer people will end up selling, that doesn't justify absurd prices. Who says a rush to market is the only way prices can drop?

4. There has never been a RE bubble? Surely you mean a nation-wide bubble, because there are several well-known instances. You need to check out the chart that shows home prices versus take-home pay going back over 100 years. The only time in all of American history exhibiting this wide a gap is right now.

5. 197 retirees not planning to sell could be attributed to the fact they are "last home" owners. Why sell and move when you're next abode is assisted living or hospice?

The fundamentals have been way off for a long time. Not only is there a bubble, it's popping, you blind fool.; September 21, 2006 4:31 AM
Anonymous said...: Why does anyone care that a bunch of C- bounders priced the prudent out of the market and retired early, setting us all up for a likely recession or depression? Why should we care if something looks like it could possibly put the freeze on whole economy?
Larry, it might not happen, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't ask "what if?" and try to get better information to form a picture of the most likely turn of events. I don't claim to know it all, but you are not wowing us with the depth of your knowledge so far.; September 21, 2006 4:41 AM
Anonymous said...: Median home prices in reduction mode
Some sellers have reacted by getting aggressive about pricing, while other, unmotivated homeowners have opted out of the market.

Unmotivated sellers have begun to flee in droves, pulling their homes off the market and, in some cases, taking down "for sale" signs and putting up ones saying "for lease."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/
id/14921324/; September 21, 2006 4:55 AM
Anonymous said...: Richard Brown, Chief Economist of the FDIC, testified that "historical experience clearly implies a widespread price bust remains an unlikely outcome for two reasons.

One is that, historically, price busts are typically associated with severe local economic distress that arises from outside the housing sector itself ... (and) that the solid growth in jobs and incomes ... will continue to be supported by other sectors of the economy, including business investment, exports and nonresidential construction ...

The second reason a home price bust remains an unlikely outcome is the anticipated response on the part of homeowners to weakness in their local real estate market ... homeowners are usually extremely reluctant to sell their homes at a loss unless forced to do so by the relocation or loss of their jobs. Under a wide range of adverse economic scenarios, homeowners have proven to go to extraordinary lengths to avoid selling their homes at a loss."

However, An estimated near-70% of recent California purchase money loans at the $500,000 level include negative amortization and interest-only provisions.

"Many homeowners might now feel caught between competing headlines -- housing price stagnation or declines, resetting interest rates and negative amortization principal caps are creating some stormy weather for many homeowners,"

http://sacramento.dbusinessnews.com/
shownews.php?type_news=
latest&newsid=93218; September 21, 2006 5:03 AM
Anonymous said...: Bay Area home sales decline, prices level off

Home sales in the Bay Area declined again last month as prices continued to level off, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 9,128 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the nine-county region last month. That was up 14.9 percent from 7,941 for July, and down 24.9 percent from 12,154 for August last year, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

Last month was the slowest August since 1997 when 9,080 homes were sold. DataQuick's statistics go back to 1988: the slowest August was in 1992 with 6,326 sales, the strongest was in 2003 with 12,488. The average August sales count since 1988 is 9,530.

"Several things are going on. Many homes are being offered for sale at unrealistically high prices as sellers try to game the peak of the market. Buyers appear to be taking a wait-and-see approach as sellers get real with their asking prices. The market seems to be going into a lull, until this all shakes out. It does appear that the strong appreciation of the recent past is leveling off," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.

The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $620,000 last month. That was down 1.1 percent from $627,000 in July, and up 0.2 percent from $619,000 for August a year ago. Last month's year-over- year increase was the lowest since March 2002 when the $381,000 median fell 1.3 percent.

http://www.dqnews.com/
RRBay0906.shtm; September 21, 2006 5:09 AM
Anonymous said...: GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD SILVER GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD; September 21, 2006 5:09 AM
Anonymous said...: Burst Housing Bubble Tough to Sell to Sellers

Lereah predicted prices will drop nationally over the next six months, and that each percentage point drop "will bring thousands and thousands of buyers back into the marketplace."

http://www.remodeling.hw.net/
industry-news.asp?sectionID=
149&articleID=366642; September 21, 2006 5:15 AM
Anonymous said...: BAKERSFIELD, California

“You knew you could get more money than what the property was worth,” she said because buyers were competing with each other. “If you saw a house for sale and you wanted it you better hurry up and make an offer or else it was gone.”

But these buyers who thought they had missed their opportunity soon found new ones as developers began filling the housing void.

“There’s a lot of new competition because we have a lot of new construction in Bakersfield so a lot of older homes are not selling like they used to before,” she said.

Older homes with an asking price of $350,000 just couldn’t compete with new ones carrying the same price tag.

“The older homes are tending to lower their prices 10 percent, 20 percent,” Castillo said.

It may seem like the housing market is in a free-fall

http://www.kget.com/news/local/
story.aspx?content_id=
E420EABD-C686-4429-A636-
55715C3BDB12; September 21, 2006 5:23 AM
Anonymous said...: Home buyers borrow aggressive tactics formerly used by sellers

NEW YORK - Not so long ago, home sellers used aggressive tactics to squeeze every last bit of profit from their home sales. Now that home sales are weakening, buyers have taken a page from the sellers' playbook, demanding everything from new appliances to no closing costs to upfront cash to get the deal done.

In some cases, what they are doing is down and dirty - sellers have been asked to pay off buyer's credit-card debt, cover costs of the buyer's current home or even pay for the buyer's commuting costs from the new home.

This kind of gamesmanship allows buyers to get the most for their money. It also reveals that the housing market's ugly side may be here to stay.

The residential real estate market is cooling from its record-setting pace. New home sales are projected to fall about 16 percent in 2006, and existing home sales are forecast to dip 7.6 percent, according to the National Association of Realtors. Growth in home prices is expected to be minimal, coming in at less than 3 percent in 2006 and 2007.

Homebuilders are certainly feeling the pinch. KB Home, for instance, has started selling off land in its portfolio and said that preliminary net orders for the third quarter were down 43 percent from the prior year, as cancellation rates have shot higher. Gross unit orders and traffic to new home communities each slid 11 percent in the third quarter.

What a change from the not-so-distant past when homeowners controlled the game. Chipped paint? Who cared? No landscaping, no problem. Old, dirty carpets didn't turn people away. Some sellers even got standard points in contracts tossed out, such as home inspections and financing clauses that tended to protect buyers.

Those days are long gone. Sellers aren't just lowering prices now. They're also offering many extras to entice buyers.

Through the end of this month, Pulte Homes' 17 San Francisco locations are giving away a weekly vacation for two at destinations including Hawaii and New York as well as incentives worth up to $99,000, including everything from pool installation to lower interest rates. In Rockville, Md., Mid-Atlantic Builders is offering a price-guarantee program, which gives the buyer a price-break should the value of their home fall before closing.

Real estate agent Mark Goldberg in suburban Washington turned into a general contractor for the last four homes he listed, doing everything from painting to landscaping to installing new lights. One of his clients just dumped $25,000 into a house they are selling for $400,000 that isn't even their primary home but a rental property that they are now trying to sell.

"Sellers have to spend money to bring their properties up to snuff. They have to give buyers a reason to be interested, or else they will walk away," said Goldberg, who works at Long & Foster realtors in Bethesda, Md.

Even the president of the National Association of Realtors, Thomas Stevens, finds this market a tough sell. His Great Falls, Va., home has been listed for a year, but had no takers yet for its $1.45 million asking price - which his realtor has long said was too high. He now plans to talk to his agent about what price can get the deal done.

Still, that might not be enough to close the sale. Buyers want more - and are coming up with their own must-have lists.

That's what Kelly Holdcraft has discovered as she tries to sell her two-year-old custom built home in DeWitt, Mich., which has been on the market for six months. Not only has she had to lower the price by $36,000 from the original listing of $435,000 - which takes her below the $425,000 she paid to build it - but her latest offer was a rent-to-own proposal that she found outrageous.

The bid came in at $365,000, but the prospective buyers were having problems with their credit so they wanted Holdcraft to rent them the home for one year with the option to buy at the end of that if their credit cleared up. Their rent offer was $300 below Holdcraft's current mortgage payment, so she quickly declined.

Other tales abound: Buyers throw out new demands right before they sign the deal, such as to have their credit-card debt paid off, their closing costs covered or the homes completely repainted with their choice of colors.

The buyers of Theresa Liddy Dolge's Hamilton, N.J., home wanted to her to pay their apartment lease from June through August since they forgot to tell their landlord they were moving. She didn't agree to that, despite her lawyer and realtor's attempts to get her to do so. They also asked for her train pass and her parking spot at the train station - both of which she no longer had.

Granted, she made money on the deal - selling the home for $275,000, which was well above the $160,000 for which she had bought it. But the buyers' sense of entitlement still bothered her.

That trait is something that today's buyers seemed to have learned from yesterday's sellers. When low mortgage rates and relaxed lending standards allowed buyers to easily secure generous financing in recent years, homeowners saw that as an opportunity to inflate their selling prices.

Now buyers are watching mortgage rates move up and risky loans implode. They want to make sure they get as much as they can out of the housing market. That certainly sounds familiar.

http://www.azcentral.com/news/
articles/
0919allbusiness-homes19-ON.html; September 21, 2006 5:31 AM
Anonymous said...: Dream turns dangerous

Number of homeowners losing houses growing

Rising interest rates, coupled with surging property taxes and insurance bills, are making it impossible for hundreds of area families to keep up with their mortgage payments, housing counselors say.

As a result, growing numbers of new homeowners are in danger of losing their homes through foreclosure. Once a mortgage goes unpaid for three to four months, most lenders will ask a judge to order an auction of the property in an effort to recoup their money.

Most families try to keep up with rising payments, but often an unexpected event, such as a divorce, loss of a job or a serious illness, leaves them flailing, Kiefer said.

"If they can't cover all their bills, they usually make their car payment first because they need the car for work and they don't want it repossessed," he said. "The mortgage is usually the biggest bill, so that's the one they let slide."

Kiefer described the plight of a Deltona family to show the impact of rising mortgage costs:

A couple who had recently started a landscaping business moved into a home with a $1,000-a-month interest-only mortgage payment. After one year, the interest-only period ended, and the loan became an adjustable-rate mortgage. The monthly payment shot up past $1,600, but their business is clearing only about $2,000 a month. Even though relatives have lent them money, they have missed four mortgage payments.

Kiefer said foreclosure seems inevitable.

"Even if they filed a Chapter 13 bankruptcy, that process still requires them to make their mortgage payments, and there's no way they can do that on their income," he said.

Sometimes, a new homeowner manages to meet his mortgage obligations only to find he can't keep up with sharply rising taxes and insurance costs, which are tacked onto the mortgage payment, Gordon said.

She said some buyers don't realize when they move in to a new home that they will be taxed at close to the property's full value. Even with a $25,000 homestead exemption figured in, their tax bill may turn out to be double or triple what the previous owner paid under a "Save Our Homes" tax break.

If mortgagees haven't reserved enough money in their escrow accounts to cover the extra costs, they get hit with a double whammy -- an escrow payment increase for the coming year and a surcharge to pay the deficit left over from the previous year. At Harbor Federal Savings Bank, area president Kim May said some of its Volusia-Flagler customers have run up escrow deficits so large it will take 12, 18 or 24 months to pay them off.

http://www.news-journalonline.com/
NewsJournalOnline/News/Headlines/
frtHEAD01092006.htm; September 21, 2006 5:43 AM
Anonymous said...: Home buyers face long battle to recoup money from shuttered Turner-Dunn

Home buyers hopeful to recoup their earnest money from shuttered home builder Turner-Dunn have found themselves at the back of a long and frustrating line.

The Phoenix-based builder walked away from hundreds of home lots in Pinal County last spring, leaving in its wake millions of dollars owed to banks and subcontractors, lawsuits, an ongoing Arizona Department of Real Estate investigation, unfinished homes and home buyers who paid thousands of dollars each in hopes of finally getting their big dream home.

The company's latest court filings in U.S. Bankruptcy Court reveal 152 people or families paid a combined total of about $650,000 in earnest money for new homes in Casa Grande and Maricopa.

But those earnest money payments for homes that were never completed are classified as unsecured non-priority claims.

That means lenders like Ohio Savings Bank and Weyerhauser Realty Investors, which hold Turner-Dunn's land and unfinished homes as collateral, have the first shot at getting their money back when a repayment plan is developed.

After them come former employees, companies with collateral and subcontractors with liens already against the builder's lots and unfinished homes. After all of them come the home buyers.

"Basically, they're last in line," said Casa Grande attorney David McCarville, who is representing one couple in a lawsuit against the builder and in Bankruptcy Court.

"These people certainly deserve better than to lose all their money and not get into their houses."

Most home buyers paid $2,500 or $5,000 in earnest money. But some, like Gerald and Barbara McCurdy of Caledonia, Ill., plunked down nearly $28,000 because, they said, Marcus E. Dunn-owned Turner-Dunn charged them more for buying an investment home they would live in mostly in winter months.

"We're just hoping it works out," Barbara McCurdy said. "But we haven't heard from them (Turner-Dunn) since May."

In some cases, home buyers have been stranded for two years awaiting their new dream homes. Some sold other homes because Turner-Dunn required that their new home be their primary residence.

Others moved into apartments, losing equity they could've otherwise built up in their old homes.

Tony Tellez of Maricopa paid $2,500. After waiting 19 months, he gave up and bought a smaller, cheaper home in Maricopa from Capital Pacific. He and his family can look out through their backyard sliding-glass door across a park space and see the Turner-Dunn home he was in contract to buy. He said he has no hopes of ever getting his money back from the builder.

" It's a stark reminder every day of how much we got screwed," Tellez said.

Turner-Dunn's five corporate entities, all of which have filed Chapter 11, have a combined debt of about $29.5 million.

The assets listed by the companies include the land, unfinished houses and some model home furniture.

"In most cases, companies are required to pay some fraction of claims," said Pete Rathwell, an attorney with Phoenix-based Snell & Wilmer LLP specializing in bankruptcies and collections. He isn't involved with the case.

"But you can never tell for certain what will happen in a case."

Turner-Dunn's attorney, Alan Meda, said about 90 homes were 85 to 90 percent finished and the builder still hopes to eventually finish all of the homes. But since construction ceased in the spring, many have deteriorated from summer heat, monsoon storms and neglect, and it's uncertain how much work would have to be redone.

The builder still has about three months to devise a court- and creditor-approved reorganization plan to continue operating.

"We're very motivated to get these homes closed," Meda said.

Ohio Savings estimated it would cost about $9.4 million to finish the homes.

Turner-Dunn has so far received about $10.5 million of a $17.6 million loan agreement from Ohio Savings, but the bank won't disburse any more of the loan because of "poor performance" managing the housing project, including $1.8 million that couldn't be accounted for, according to the bank's court filings.

The filings also showed that former Turner-Dunn president and partner Louis Turner, who left the company late last year, had his ownership stake in the company bought out for $1.5 million prior to the spring 2006 construction stoppage

http://www.azcentral.com/
arizonarepublic/business/
articles/
0919biz-turnerdunn0920.html; September 21, 2006 5:49 AM
Anonymous said...: No Surprise, Johnston County Ranks High In Home Sales

The sounds of hammers and saws have been resonating across Johnston County for some time now, and don't expect it to end any time soon. According to one research group, the county is in the middle of a housing boom.

"Johnston has always tended to be the low price leader in the Triangle," Mr. Vanhorn said. "Moderately priced homes have always done well in Johnston County. It's still an affordable place to buy a home."

"These are homes in the early $200,000 with three bedrooms and a finished bonus room," she said. "Everybody is coming to us with developments."

She said land in the county is no longer cheap, but approaching prices of Raleigh and the Wake County area, at more than $60,000 an acre.

"I don't think that it's because land is cheap here now," she said. "To me $63,000, that is Wake County prices."

"What we have in Benson is selling," she said. "I guess I would call that a hot spot - (N.C.) Highway 210.

"I'm serious, right now it's just shocking me," she said. "I always tell my sellers to give me six months when we are doing a contract, but I'm selling them one or two months after I get them listed."

http://www.mydailyrecord.com/
main.asp?SectionID=
3&SubSectionID=17&ArticleID=
81026&TM=67552.44; September 21, 2006 5:53 AM
Anonymous said...: No Surprise, Johnston County Ranks High In Home Sales

The sounds of hammers and saws have been resonating across Johnston County for some time now, and don't expect it to end any time soon. According to one research group, the county is in the middle of a housing boom.

"Johnston has always tended to be the low price leader in the Triangle," Mr. Vanhorn said. "Moderately priced homes have always done well in Johnston County. It's still an affordable place to buy a home."

"These are homes in the early $200,000 with three bedrooms and a finished bonus room," she said. "Everybody is coming to us with developments."

She said land in the county is no longer cheap, but approaching prices of Raleigh and the Wake County area, at more than $60,000 an acre.

"I don't think that it's because land is cheap here now," she said. "To me $63,000, that is Wake County prices."

"What we have in Benson is selling," she said. "I guess I would call that a hot spot - (N.C.) Highway 210.

"I'm serious, right now it's just shocking me," she said. "I always tell my sellers to give me six months when we are doing a contract, but I'm selling them one or two months after I get them listed."

http://www.mydailyrecord.com/
main.asp?SectionID=
3&SubSectionID=17&ArticleID=
81026&TM=67552.44; September 21, 2006 5:54 AM
Anonymous said...: How Low Will Home Prices Go?
A Reporter Goes House Shopping

My younger sister Melissa and her husband Joe are ready to move.

Today the couple live in an apartment in New Jersey just across the Hudson River from Manhattan. At 33, Melissa's had it with city life, tired of dragging bags of groceries up steep flights of stairs, frustrating hunts for a parking space and worrying about having her new car stolen or broken into.

And they know what they want: a three-bedroom, single-family home near us in Monmouth County, N.J. Melissa wants to move closer so our families can spend more time together. Joe lived in the area as a child, and he's eager to return.

But our neck of the woods has seen some of the steepest home-price increases in the nation over the last several years. In the second quarter of 2006, the median price for a single-family home in our region was $393,600, more than double the median of $188,200 in 2000, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Those price increases have reflected fierce competition, something my sister knows all too well. Last summer Melissa and Joe found the perfect place -- a roomy home near us on a fair-sized lot for a hair under $250,000. (Roomy was key -- standing 6 foot 5 plus, Joe's a guy who needs space.) After making an offer, they thought the house was theirs, only to see it snatched out from under them at the last minute by a counteroffer for $10,000 more. That was too much for my sister; deeply disappointed, she and Joe stopped looking. Still, they did keep an eye on real-estate sites, hoping for signs of a letup in the insanity.

Recently she's seen reasons for hope: Far more homes were showing up in their price range, and others she'd seen a year ago were being relisted at reduced asking prices. Melissa decided it was time to look around again, and last weekend she asked me to come along on a tour of open houses in her price range. My sister had a list of homes she'd found online, but I suggested we tour as many open houses as we could to get a feel for the market.

What we saw was bleak news for sellers in our region, but good news for buyers like Melissa and Joe: block after block of open-house signs. In fact, we were hard-pressed to find a street that didn't have at least one home for sale -- and many had more than one. What's more, most of the 20 or so homes we visited were vacant -- a sign that homeowners have moved on and are motivated to sell, or that speculators are looking to unload properties before prices go any lower. (Asked why one home was vacant, one agent said frankly: "This was a 'flip' that flopped.")

Though some of the agents we encountered continued to promote their "charming" homes as "a steal," a surprising number were more candid. "The owner way overpriced this home," said one. "I bet if you offered $30,000 less they'd jump at it." We believed her, because she was running the open house as a favor for another agent.

Another sign of a turning market: We saw very similar houses with prices all over the map -- ranging from the low $200,000s to $270,000. That's evidence that sellers aren't sure what houses are worth these days, with some reluctant to accept that market dynamics have changed.

"They look at home-price comparisons from a year ago when there was far more demand than supply," says Pat Lashinsky, senior vice president of Emeryville, Calif., real-estate firm ZipRealty. Now that there's excess supply, he says, sellers need to be more willing to negotiate.

One agent on our tour encouraged Melissa to look at homes "in the $270s or $280s" -- well out of her price range -- and make lowball offers. Think that wouldn't work? We encountered a husband and wife going the "for sale by owner" route, with an asking price of $315,000. While his wife pointed out the home's features to my sister, the husband gave me a wink and whispered, "Don't let that $315 scare you, we're extremely negotiable."

http://www.realestatejournal.com/
buysell/tactics/
20060918-cullen.html; September 21, 2006 5:59 AM
Anonymous said...: Glut reaction?
Sellers acknowledge that market has slowed, but buyers see opportunity in the 'G' word

In the condo market, "glut" is becoming a four-letter word--at least for sellers.

The once-exuberant market isn't dead--drowsy, maybe, but not dead--and it's a brilliant time to be a buyer, real estate experts say.

"The ones who still think Santa Claus is going to come down the chimney--their homes are going to still be sitting there."

What she, along with many other Chicago-area agents, means is that the eager seller needs to spruce up and price right to get the deal done, because there are a ton of condos on the market.

To be precise, there are about 12,000 condos in a "ton," that being the number of units for sale (excluding townhouses) throughout metropolitan Chicago at the end of August, according to the Headrick-Wagner Appraisal Group of Naperville.

That doesn't, however, count those for-sale-by-owner and some new units whose builders don't market through agents, according to Chip Wagner, president of Headrick-Wagner.

"There are large developments coming on the market that aren't being reflected on the MLS," Wagner says.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/
classified/realestate/
realestate/
chi-0609170300sep17,0,7913830.story?
coll=chi-classifiedrealestate-hed; September 21, 2006 6:05 AM
Anonymous said...: Movie on 'flipping' so real, it's terrifying

The title of a new film, "Flipped," has the ring of a comedy or romance, but the documentary on shady real estate practices tells a horror story.

The one-hour movie examines Buffalo's experience with house flipping, the sale of abandoned property at inflated prices to buyers who are either unwitting or part of a scheme. The houses drift in and out of foreclosure, dragging down neighborhoods.

The movie was screened Friday at the Justice Center for nearly 100 government and nonprofit agency officials. Producer Michele Johnson and Buffalo officials then discussed the problem and how the city combats it.

Johnson, who works for the Buffalo Housing Court, recruited an independent filmmaker for the project after Johnson's sister-in-law was scammed in a rent-to-own deal.

Johnson plans a sequel, "Stripped," about the theft of scrap metal from vacant houses, which happens in Cleveland frequently.

Johnson is on screen often in "Flipped," bemoaning the damage that flipping has done to her beloved city.

The bleak film shows blocks of vacant houses with doors left open, windows broken and siding missing. About 16,000 homes await demolition in Buffalo, where 70 percent of the houses were built before 1940.

Earlier Friday, Cleveland Housing Judge Raymond Pianka, who arranged the showing, took Buffalo Housing Judge Henry Nowak on a driving tour of Cleveland's Slavic Village neighborhood. Nowak was impressed by new development but saw familiar desolation.

"I told Judge Pianka you could pick up our vehicle and drop it in a neighborhood in Buffalo, and you wouldn't know the difference," Nowak said.

Buffalo's houses are often flipped sight unseen on the Internet, bought and sold again, sometimes within minutes, to investors around the globe. Promising descriptions of properties hardly fit the ravaged kitchens and bathrooms in many of the homes.

Slavic Village Councilman Tony Brancatelli said the difference in Cleveland is the flippers are local. He said the documentary highlights the need for stronger city code enforcement and tougher state laws.

Pianka said he set up the screening to raise awareness, but he also wants to adopt some of Buffalo's tactics.

Nowak said Buffalo reacts instantly when lenders begin foreclosures, often by appointing receivers to oversee maintenance. Vacant houses are marked with "no-trespassing" notices, eliminating the need to get warrants when squatters or drug dealers settle in.

http://www.cleveland.com/cuyahoga/
plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/
cuyahoga/1158413852136710.xml&coll=2; September 21, 2006 6:08 AM
Anonymous said...: Fannie Mae could be hit hard by housing bust: Berg
Mortgage giant could lose $29 bln, long-term bear argues in investor letter

Fannie and sister company Freddie Mac were formed in 1938 by congressional charter to support the U.S. housing market.

Fannie's main business is buying mortgages from banks and other lenders, packaging them into so-called mortgage backed securities (MBS) and selling them on to other investors.

The company gets fees for providing credit guarantees on these pools of loans.

Fannie is currently responsible for more than $1.6 trillion of MBS and is involved in the financing of roughly a fifth of all U.S. mortgages.

By taking mortgages off the hands of other lenders, Fannie helps them free up more capital so they can sell more mortgages.

Fannie also invests in bits of MBS that have been put together and sold by other mortgage companies like Countrywide Financial and Washington Mutual.

It held a little more than $730 billion in mortgage-related securities on its balance sheet at the end of June.

Subprime exposure
Fannie has traditionally specialized in higher-quality, fixed-rate mortgages, which are less vulnerable to interest-rate fluctuations and volatility in the housing market.

But the company has been investing more in subprime MBS in recent years.

Subprime loans are sold to home buyers who fail to meet the strictest lending standards, so this area of the mortgage market is expected to be hit harder by any housing downturn.

Fannie and Freddie bought 25.2% of the record $272.81 billion in subprime MBS sold in the first half of 2006, according to Inside Mortgage Finance Publications, a Bethesda, Md.-based publisher that covers the home loan industry.

In 2005, Fannie and Freddie purchased 35.3% of all subprime MBS, the publication estimated.

The year before, the two purchased almost 44% of all subprime MBS sold.

Three big lenders, NovaStar Financial, Deutsche Bank, and BNC Mortgage, part of Lehman Brothers, sold more than half of their subprime MBS to Fannie and Freddie this year, said Andrew Analore, editor at Inside Mortgage Finance.

Ofheo, Fannie's regulator, has noticed that the company has increased its subprime exposure.

"They've expanded in that area in recent years, but it's still not an enormous part of their business," Andrew Lawler, chief economist at Ofheo, said.

"It's an area we're increasingly looking at because they're increasingly involved in it."

An Ofheo report due out later this year is expected to show Fannie's subprime exposure is "generally moving up," he added.

Given those recent moves, Berg said it's not implausible that 15% of Fannie's mortgage exposure is subprime.

If a housing slowdown causes subprime foreclosure loss rates to rise to between 6% and 8%, Fannie could lose $22 billion to $29 billion, Berg estimated in his letter.

That's more than half of the roughly $40 billion in capital that Fannie had at the end of March, according to Ofheo.

Foreclosure loss rates on subprime mortgages are currently lower than Berg's theoretical range, but some experts are worried that foreclosures could increase in coming years.

"There's a high probability of a sharp increase in credit losses in the second half of 2007 and into 2008," said Robert Lacoursiere, an analyst at Banc of America Securities.

"This will be more pronounced in subprime and will hit earlier in that area, too."

Subprime stress

Early signs of stress are beginning to appear.

H&R Block announced an unexpected $102 million charge in late August related to its Option One mortgage business, which specializes in home loans to borrowers with credit scores at the lower end of the spectrum.

The company said the losses cover loans it could be required to buy back should a borrower default on the first payment.

Mortgage-lender National City said recently that, while it has refrained from entering the riskier areas of lending, it has seen a marked increase in first-payment defaults on loans.

In California, one of the hot markets where home prices soared in recent years, defaults surged 67% in July from a year earlier.

Mortgage-insurance specialist MGIC Investment reported a 17.35% delinquency rate on A- rated and subprime loans as of the end of June.

That's up from 12.38% in late 2002.
Fannie may have increased exposure to the subprime market in response to restrictions on its growth by regulators, Lacoursiere explained.

Subprime mortgage debt offers higher yields than better-quality loans.

So one way for Fannie to generate more profit in the midst of restrictions on its portfolio is to invest in higher-yielding debt, he said.

"They've been getting into asset classes that haven't been a big specialty for them in the past," the analyst added. "Combine that with a credit environment in the mortgage market that is fundamentally deteriorating, and you start to wonder whether they're doing something that they may regret."

The problem is exacerbated by the fact that Fannie Mae hasn't disclosed financial statements for more than two years, Berg said in his letter.

That makes it hard to gauge Fannie's true exposure to subprime mortgages and the housing market as a whole.

"Simply writing down these points in summary fashion illustrates the unprecedented and complex puzzle of a $46 billion market cap company that doesn't file financial statements," he wrote.

"Moreover, the company has instituted a share buyback for the benefit of employees in the midst of this void! You can't make this stuff up."

Fine on subprime

Fannie doesn't disclose what percentage of its mortgage exposure is subprime, King, the company's spokesman, said.

However, Fannie's chief economist, David Berson, said in an interview that the company has "very little exposure to the subprime market."

Fannie also protects itself from a possible downturn in the housing market in a number of different ways, including maintaining a geographically diversity book of business and focusing on mortgages that have a high percentage of equity in them, King noted.

At the end of June, the loan-to-value ratio on Fannie's book of business was 54%, he added.

Other experts noted that when Fannie purchases subprime MBS, it usually only buys triple-A-rated tranches.

In the event of losses, the triple-A bits are the last ones affected.

Ed Groshans, an analyst at Fox-Pitt, Kelton, estimated that if losses in these pools of mortgages reached 10%, investors in the triple-A tranches would still get all their interest and principal back.

"Higher interest rates will cause more people to go delinquent on their mortgages, but not enough to push losses on these pools over 6%," the analyst said.

Indeed, Lacoursiere of Banc of America Securities said other mortgage companies, such as Countrywide, Washington Mutual and IndyMac are much more exposed to trouble in the subprime market than is Fannie Mae.

But Berg said most analysts and investors are underestimating the impact of the unwinding of what he called a "historic housing and mortgage bubble."

"We are only postulating that the subprime book could get in trouble and experience normal losses," he added.

"Things could get far worse than our mildly bearish assumptions."

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/
Story/Story.aspx?guid=
%7B843C8E17%2DB688%2D452B%2D96A8%
2D524381ACC223%7D&source=
blq%2Fyhoo&dist=yhoo&siteid=yhoo; September 21, 2006 6:26 AM
Anonymous said...: What's that smell?; September 21, 2006 6:43 AM
Anonymous said...: Cayuga County woman faces arson charge in house fire

A Montezuma woman faces felony arson, reckless endangerment and insurance fraud charges, accused of deliberately setting her home on fire July 24.

Patricia A. Bennett, 56, of 8146 Route 90, Montezuma, was arrested Sept. 5 by the Cayuga County Sheriff's Office after a monthlong investigation by the sheriff's office and the county Fire Investigation Team.

Undersheriff Stephen B. McLoud said the reckless endangerment charge relates to having public safety personnel called to the scene. Bennett also filed an insurance claim, McLoud said.

Bennett was arraigned in Montezuma Town Court and sent to the Cayuga County Jail in lieu of $10,000 cash bail or $20,000 bail bond, awaiting possible grand jury action.

The fire was called in by Bennett at 11:05 p.m., according to McLoud.

The home is a two-story, wood-frame, two-family duplex. McLoud said the rented side of the home was vacant and Bennett lived alone in the other side. Damage was extensive, especially on the second floor and in the attic areas.

"The fire investigation team's cause and origin group identified the origin of the fire as the attic and could not identify an accidental source for the fire to start there," McLoud said.

"That prompted an investigation, and in interviewing Mrs. Bennett, she made a statement detailing her part in the fire," McLoud said. He said how the fire was set is not being released at this time.

http://www.syracuse.com/news/
poststandard/cayuga/index.ssf?/
base/news-5/
115805161942250.xml&coll=1; September 21, 2006 7:14 AM
Anonymous said...: Metairie homeowner, others booked in arson

Woman is suspected in insurance scam

Authorities have arrested the owner of a home in Metairie's Maple Ridge subdivision for allegedly torching the house seven months ago to collect the insurance.

Laura Wagner, 47, was booked Thursday with criminal conspiracy and arson with the intent to defraud in connection with a fire at 189 Maple Ridge Drive, according to a Jefferson Parish Sheriff's Office arrest report. Wayne Rice, 52, and Charles Mahr, 42, both of Bush, were booked Friday with the same charges, accused of being her accomplices, the arrest report said.

After the East Jefferson Consolidated Fire Department extinguished the flames Feb. 2, an arson investigator determined that the blaze had been set intentionally, an incident report said. Witnesses reported seeing the owner of the property and two men leave the house in a hurry about five minutes before the fire was detected, the report said. Another witness said she, too, saw a woman leave shortly before she saw smoke coming out of the house.

Investigators determined that Wagner wanted the house to burn so she could collect an insurance claim, the arrest report said. She agreed to pay Mahr $1,500 for the job, the report said. All three went to the house. Mahr allegedly used gasoline as an accelerant and ignited the fire, the report said. Then they fled in Wagner's vehicle. Wagner later filed a claim with Allstate Insurance Co. for the fire damage.

Rice and Mahr admitted their involvement in the fire, the arrest report said. Neither they nor Wagner, who was taken into custody in Washington Parish, could be reached for comment Friday. All three were being held Friday afternoon at the Jefferson Parish Correctional Center in Gretna. Rice and Mahr were being held with no bond, and Wagner was being held in lieu of a $5,500 bond.

http://www.nola.com/news/t-p/
eastjefferson/index.ssf?/base/
news-4/1157782081311470.xml&coll=1; September 21, 2006 7:17 AM
Anonymous said...: Fate of Hite-Finney home in question

The future of one of the oldest homes in Martinsville is uncertain because of an arson fire Sunday morning and a pending lawsuit.

The fire that destroyed the one-story section was arson, according to Indiana State Fire Marshal and Martinsville Fire Department investigators. The fire was started in several locations.

A company that loaned money on the property filed a lawsuit, attempting to foreclose on the loan, which could spell the end of the home.

http://www.reporter-times.com/
?module=displaystory&story_id=
34908&format=html; September 21, 2006 7:25 AM
Anonymous said...: My own appraisal has doubled every year for the last three,

OUCH.

Anayway, I got a spam e mail from Zillow offering me the opportunity to 'personalize' the data on my own home and then Zillow will use the informaiton I give them to update their site. They have time for that right? Objective, right?; September 21, 2006 1:33 PM
Larry said...: I am not looking for the housing market to suddenly turn back up on a dime. Too much inventory to work through. Some of that inventory will drop off as sellers cancel their listings (or they expire) as they were unable to sell at prices that are no longer available. These are the ones who didn't have to sell, didn't have to move, didn't have a bad mortgage to refinance, but were willing to sell at inflated prices and didn't pull it off.; September 21, 2006 7:29 PM
Larry said...: "Anonymous said...
Why does anyone care that a bunch of C- bounders priced the prudent out of the market and retired early, setting us all up for a likely recession or depression? Why should we care if something looks like it could possibly put the freeze on whole economy?
Larry, it might not happen, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't ask "what if?" and try to get better information to form a picture of the most likely turn of events. I don't claim to know it all, but you are not wowing us with the depth of your knowledge so far. "
THE QUESTION I ASKED WAS "WHY DOES ANYONE CARE?"
I didn't expect any answers, just more cut & paste articles, written by people who aren't investors or realtors or in many cases even homeowners.; September 21, 2006 7:32 PM
Larry said...: "Anonymous said...
Larry Nusbaum, don't back pedal now. Your early comments impliedly suggest that you believe, based on your facts presented, that it is contrary to what you're hearing now. Like then Dems, you want to cut and run in this debate. Stand firm on what you believe in. Give us your best opinion guy."

SAME AS ALWAYS, MR. RENTER: REAL ESTATE OWNERSHIP IS ( AND HAS ALWAYS BEEN) THE ONLY WAY TO INFLATION-PROOF YOUR RETIREMENT.
(Unless, of course, you are relying on the fiat money payments from Social Security); September 21, 2006 7:35 PM
Anonymous said...: There are too many bitter renters on this blog waiting for doom and gloom so that they can scoop up properties on the pennies (not going to literally happen). The bitter renters don't take into account all the homeowners, yes homeowners, that are: 1) not overleveraged (i.e., have greater 50% equity in their house and can pay off their house at any time); 2) are not in debt; and 3) value the stability of owning a home under reasonable financing conditions (i.e., don't have to subject your family to moving every year, staying in a good public school district system, developing ties to the community in which you would like to live for the next 20-30 years). Yes, real estate is overinflated; yes, if a relatively small percentage of homeowners end up defaulting on their mortgages nationwide, it will cause a global economic meltdown (it will take less than 5% of Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae's portfolio to go under before there are serious global consequences). But if that doom and gloom scenario comes to pass (to you renters that are dreaming of buying a 4/3 house in a major metro are for 100k), how many you renters will be able to afford the house? Under an economic catastrophe, how many of you can blow 100k on a house since food, shelter, etc. . . will eat up the bulk of your expenses? I hope you bitter renters are absolutely debt-free, have $500k-1m (at least in cash), have gold, have foreign currency, etc. . . to weather the storm. If not, don't gloat too much.
By the way, if the government starts printing money like crazy, then so long as you are not in debt, have some gold reserves and can make the fixed monthly mortgage payment (and be in the position to pay off the mortgage at any time), have a stable job (can live on one person's salary), you are not screwed since the money you owe (i.e., the mortgage) will be worth less and you will pay the bank bank in dollars that are worth less. Get it? That's the best position to be in. And yes, we responsible homeowners that believe real estate is inflated will be able to scoop in and buy some real estate (i.e., vacation homes, investment properties) at "fire" prices if that doom and gloom scenario comes to pass but only once there is blood in the streets. Bitter renters: careful what you wish for . . . .; September 21, 2006 9:18 PM
Anonymous said...: Another Zillow comment.

If you go to this site, you will see that this house was just sold for $485,000 (me and my wife put a bid in for $420K a couple week prior and were shot down - thank god).

Wouldn't you all agree that (at that moment in time) the price at which a house is sold determines its value at that point in time?

If so - why the hell does zillow show the estimated value of this house to be at $579K??????? - after it just sold for $485???

This is just one instance of them hiding the demise of housing prices.

It would seem logical that at that moment of sale, their estimate should jump to match what the f'ing house sold for. What a useless piece of crap.

http://www.zillow.com/Charts.htm?
chartDuration=5years&zpid=16756076; September 22, 2006 1:40 AM
Anonymous said...: Soft market teaches flippers an ever-so-humble lesson

Investing in real estate looked so sexy. Like the tech-stock bubble that turned college kids and housewives into day traders, the real estate boom turned insurance brokers, doctors and bicycle mechanics into real estate flippers, who would buy and then quickly sell homes for easy profits.

Now those profits are shrinking fast. Nearly one in five flippers who sold from April to June actually lost money on the deal, the highest level in 2½ years, according to HomeSmartReports.com, which today will release a report on flipping activity in 147 metro areas.

The vanishing act of speculators is accelerating the decline in home sales this year.

Investors bought about one out of every four homes sold last year, according to the National Association of Realtors.

They focused on the hottest markets, such as California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada — the very markets that are now feeling the sharpest reversals of fortune.

The sharp drop in sales suggests that real estate speculators have fled the market, says Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, a national economic prognosticator.

Yet the fact that prices remain stubbornly high in most markets shows that many investors are still holding onto their properties with dreams of making a profit.

Falling prices have also hurt the traditional buyers who bought their homes with plans to live there and build equity the old-fashioned way.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/
economy/housing/
2006-09-20-flipping-usat_x.htm?csp=
N008; September 22, 2006 3:23 AM
Larry said...: autofx in Phx said...
Larry Nusbaum said:
I HAVE NEVER SAID THAT THERE IS OR ISN'T A HOUSING OR CREDIT BUBBLE. JUST THAT I DON'T KNOW AND DON'T CARE. WHY DO ALL OF YOU CARE?
~
Why do you type in all caps?
+++++++++++++++++++++++
So that a dope like you can ask "why do you type in all caps?"; September 22, 2006 4:08 AM
Anonymous said...: Children...No Fighting!; September 22, 2006 5:48 AM
Anonymous said...: Sept 22, 2006 news is out.

Real Estate Information; September 22, 2006 6:08 AM
Anonymous said...: PMI mortgage insurance report

PMI Fall 2006 Report; September 22, 2006 6:19 AM
Larry said...: Regardless, starter homes always do well in a recession as people stop trading up and even downsize.; September 22, 2006 3:54 PM
Anonymous said...: Anon 6:40:49,

Lots have been said about San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, etc., but I suggest that you may want to check Hercules, CA, especially the new development at Victoria By The Bay. The last time I checked at Yahoo Rea Estate section, the asking prices were at $1 mil plus. It;s ridiculous. It would be nice if you can do a thorough research about the area, similar to what you did in other areas and share it with us. It would be a nice subject for debate.; September 22, 2006 5:38 PM
Larry said...: Housing Slowdown Worse in Midwest than California?

That is what the experts are projecting. The inventory bump in California will not be nearly as disruptive to pricing of homes as the economic decline in the rust belt states is to housing costs and foreclosures. The San Francisco – Oakland region is in for a soft landing as job growth and wage inflation are keeping the incredible rise in housing costs affordable.

Some cities in California are also more likely to see home-price declines because of the significant run-up in home prices during the boom, but the analysts point out that the Bay area, namely San Francisco and Oakland, is actually experiencing less risk of a price decline because of rising income growth and fewer job losses in that area. Nationwide, Credit Suisse analysts believe that barring an economic disruption, the current housing-market slowdown will become “an orderly soft landing.”

READ: Big cities, bright prospects http://money.cnn.com/2005/09/23/real_estate/cities_real_estate_0510/

However the midwest has seen a tremendous loss of jobs and business. This economic downturn is forcing many into bankruptcy and foreclosure. The lack of jobs in these areas are not bringing in new buyers so there is barely any market for housing. With no flow, the opportunity to get out of a bad mortgage is nearly impossible for the struggling borrower.; September 22, 2006 5:46 PM
Anonymous said...: Larry Nusbaum, you're beginning to be impartial now and realistci and it's a good start. Remember, people a re very cautious now and they will not easily fall for any spin. The best example is David Lereah. I think professionals like you should learn from him. Remember, people are looking for credible financial advisors.; September 22, 2006 5:52 PM