HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with Attitude, gets a new name today

The housing bubble is over my friends. We're now, without question, firmly in crash stage. So as of today, 3,000,000 page views, 2,500 posts and a year and a half later, let me now introduce:

HousingPANIC - The Housing Crash Blog with an Attitude Problem

Yup, you'll continue to get housing bubble (RIP) and crash news, political and fiscal commentary, and until this thing is over, a serious attitude problem.

One day HP'ers, when it costs more to rent than own, and real estate clerks and the corrupt REIC have been forever defeated, we'll move on to better and brighter topics. Hope will spring eternal, and we'll be better off as a country having experienced this historic crash. I truly believe that.

I see a shining city on a hill. A thousand points of light. Or something like that.

Until then, F the REIC! F real estate clerks! F David Lereah! And F the late great housing bubble!

Want to see what it's like to be a real estate clerk in today's market? Enjoy HP'ers!

Glengarry Glen Ross is a 1992 movie, based on the 1984 Pulitzer Prize and Tony-winning play of the same name by David Mamet, who adapted it into a screenplay for the film. The film shows parts of two days in the lives of four desperate real estate agents (Pacino, Lemmon, Harris and Arkin) who are prepared to engage in any number of unethical and/or illegal acts (from lies and flattery to bribery, threats and intimidation to burglary) in order to sell undesirable real estate to unwilling prospective buyers ("leads") while the put upon office manager (Spacey) awaits for them to make their sale after the hardnosed corporate boss (Baldwin) gives marching orders to do their jobs.

Phoenix real estate clerk: "You look out on the street and see five to ten houses for sale, but many people still don't believe things have changed"

I think someone needs to tell all the other Phoenix real estate clerks that things have changed. All those big dreams, those millions and millions you were going to make in real estate?

Poof.

Get ready for the used car lots full of repossessed Boxters and BMW's (again), get ready for declining sales at Tommy Bahama, and get ready for a rush on ramen noodles at Safeway.

(Note - that's a real picture of the real estate clerk goober interviewed in the article)

If Christopher Guest ever films a mockumentary about real estate agents, he could do worse than to make the trip to Phoenix and get a load of Brett Barry. With a George Michael beard, bleach-white teeth, perma-tan and a smattering of gold jewelry, Barry darts around his office in a strip mall, his face lighting up whenever another human comes within shouting distance.

Specializing in a planned community near Scottsdale, Barry lords over his territory in a canary-yellow Porsche Boxster whose vanity plate reads SAYSOLD. "It's a realtor thing," he says, half apologizing for, half drawing attention to his chariot. Locals tell me today is the coldest day of the year in Phoenix, but that doesn't dampen Barry's enthusiasm. "Let's put the top down!" he calls out as we get in the sports car for a tour of his domain.

Barry is skeptical of Zillow's valuations, especially in a market like Phoenix, where so many properties are languishing. If the Zestimates are based on sales, then Zillow is missing a whole lot of data. He points at a stack of pages from the MLS (for Multiple Listing Service, the nationwide database of properties for sale). "Look, 213 days, 353 days, 529 days," he says, referring to how long each house has been available. "There's a lot of fat in the market. Prices are still too high."

For any homeowner looking to sell, it's a gloomy message: These are the worst of times. Not long ago, Phoenix was the nation's fastest-growing market. The median price rose 55 percent in 2005. Agents were closing deals on the hoods of cars; investors flipped homes without ever moving in.

Fast-forward to early 2007: Throw a rock in any direction, and it'll bounce off a FOR SALE sign. "There are 45,000 listings in the Phoenix MLS, and that number hasn't changed in six months," Barry says as we cruise among lookalike stucco homes. With every passing week, the number of houses on the market rises, increasing the downward pricing pressure. "It's like a freeway pileup."

"You look out on the street and see five to ten houses for sale, but many people still don't believe things have changed," he says, shaking his head at a dirty carpet. "The average seller says, 'I need to get this much out of our house to move up.' But the market doesn't care."

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day

Are real estate clerks even dumber than we think?

The money ain't gettin' paid back folks. It ain't gettin' paid back.

FLASH: Housing starts plunge 14.3% to 10-year low - New home construction down 37.8% year-on-year

Millions will go unemployed during this REIC downturn. Just like the telecom implosion in 2000, way too much capacity, way too little demand.

The unemployment will only make the housing ponzi scheme unraveling even worse.

Panic is knocking. Knock. Knock. Knock. Knock. Can you hear it? You should.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. home builders started the fewest homes in nearly a decade in January, as housing starts plunged 14.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.408 million, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

It's the lowest rate for starts since August 1997. Housing starts were down 37.8% compared with January 2006.

The starts figure was much lower than expected on Wall Street, where economists were looking for a 2% drop to 1.60 million annualized units. The permits figure was close to the 1.58 million expected by median forecast in the MarketWatch survey of economists.

The stunning drop in home building indicates that builders are scaling back their plans on a massive scale to work down the excess inventory of unsold homes on the market. Hopes that a bottom in the housing market has been reached will have to be re-evaluated

Starts of single-family homes dropped 11.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.108 million, the lowest since August 1997. Permits for single-family homes fell 4% to 1.121 million, the lowest since December 1997.

Two weeks ago, the Commerce Department reported that the number of vacant homes increased by 34% in 2006 to 2.1 million at the end of the year, nearly double the long-term vacancy rate. Economists said there are 1 million excess homes.

Why aren't real estate clerks embracing the crash (vs. calling bottom and saying prices are going up)?

Since ramen-eating real estate clerks can only start making money again if homes start selling again, doesn't that mean that instead of denying the bubble and trolling housing panic with disinformation and spin, shouldn't they instead be out there SHOUTING that asking prices are WAY TOO HIGH, that homedebtors are delusional, and that if anyone wants to sell a home in this environment they'll need to DRASTICALLY cut their asking price?

In other words, are real estate clerks and the NAR even dumber than even we thought possible (it's a great time to buy and sell a home!)?

HousingPANIC's message for the real estate clerks of America - SHOUT FROM THE ROOFTOP TO ANYONE WHO'LL LISTEN THAT HOMES ARE INSANELY OVERPRICED.

Unless homedebtors hear that and hear it loud, you'll keep eating ramen. It is your job to make sure homedebtors panic at this stage, and buyers think they can get firesale prices. The days of "buy now or be priced out forever" are over. You fools!

Now get out there and get 'er done! Even though nobody respects or trusts you anymore, at least get your message right. Geeze.

Home prices should spring back in coming months, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday, after it reported that prices slid in 73 metro areas in the final months of the year.

Home sales seemed to have hit bottom already in many areas: 71 metropolitan areas had price gains, and 14 of them posted double-digit year-to-year increases.But it's unclear how far the improvement will go or how long it will last.

"At least the bottom appears to have already occurred," says Lawrence Yun, a senior economist at NAR.