Here's the latest from good little REIC monkey Nicholas Retsinas at Harvard's REIC-corrupted Joint Center for Housing Studies

Home prices in have crashed by the biggest amount since the Great Depression.

There are millions of unsold, still overpriced, unwanted homes.

Foreclosures are rampant.

Congress is running around like monkeys trying to find a way out of the mess.

And yet here's the REIC's good little poodle Nicholas Retsinas, sent out by his REIC masters (i.e. Harvard JCHS sponsors) to pump housing to the all-too-gullible MSM, even after finally admitting to the crash.

Over the horizon, a housing recovery

The current housing market is bleak: home prices and sales are plummeting, foreclosure proceedings are skyrocketing and mortgage rates are on the rise.

When will things be better?

A new study from the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, "The State of the Nation's Housing 2008," finds the country poised to see an increase in housing demand over the next decade.

"The good news is that we still have a growing population," said Nicolas Retsinas, director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies and one of the study's authors. "As long as you have more households, more people are going to need places to live."

Some background for HP newbies:

* Many of you will remember when Retsinas stupidly went after HP'ers after we called for his ouster. Retsinas did the classic REIC "blame the messenger" after housing crashed, exposing himself for the bought-and-paid-for REIC hack he is:

"HOUSING BUST AHEAD." The headline hints of catastrophe: a dot-com repeat, a bubble bursting, an economic apocalypse. Cassandra, though, can stop wailing: the expected price corrections mark a slowing in the rate of increase -- not a precipitous decline.

This will not spark a chain reaction that will devastate home owners, builders, and communities. Contradicting another gloomy seer, Chicken Little, the sky is not falling."

- Nicholas Retsinas, mocking HP'ers, September 2006

* Here's the Harvard JCHS's dirty list of REIC masters (since removed from their website)

* And this classic rant from Tim Iacono over at SeekingAlpha:

"Adding to the growing evidence that you can work at Harvard and still be a moron, Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies commented "The fundamental problem with housing is oversupply.''

No, the fundamental problem is that a speculative bubble just burst and now everyone is thinking rationally again - home prices are still too high, potential buyers realized home prices are still too high, lenders are now interested in the borrower actually paying back the home loan, and investors don't want to go near securitized debt."

FLASH: OC Register exposes that true subprime ARM default rate is 21.1%, NOT the 13% reported in MSM

Every day it seems another REIC lie is being being exposed. Watch the floodgates really open up now that the MSM has jumped off the REIC tank, put down the rolodex of realtors, and is (finally) doing their damn job.

Bravo to Mathew Padilla at the OC Register. Keep digging! Especially when it comes to the bigger story of Alt-A liar's loans. With 60% of applicants on those loans committing blatant mortgage fraud by overstating their income by 50% or more, that disaster will unfold soon enough. Plus the feds should review every liar's loan taken out and prosecute every one of 'em for mortgage fraud.

Subprime delinquencies higher than reported

Forget that 13% subprime delinquency number you heard about so much in the press and which some politicos and real estate folks turned on its head pointing out 87% of subprime borrowers are paying their mortgage.

I took another look at the transcript from the first-quarter conference call of IndyMac Bancorp, and caught this statement from CEO Michael Perry:

On subprime loans, one of the things that I think people aren’t aware of is that the Mortgage Bankers Association basically classifies the lender as a prime lender or a subprime lender. So for example, they classify IndyMac and Countrywide as prime lenders, and they classify New Century or whoever as a subprime lender. And all of their servicing portfolio is considered prime or subprime for the MBA. Ok? And so when you see that delinquency number in the press of 13% subprime delinquencies, it’s hugely understated. It is absolutely hugely understated. And the prime delinquencies are overstated.The subprime delinquencies are more like 18, 20, 22% delinquencies and that’s where I think you’re going to see the problems."

To see if Perry had it right, I quizzed the MBA and got this in response from Jay Brinkmann, vice president of research and economics:

"Mr. Perry is correct that we have to differentiate by the type of servicer rather than the type of loan. This may not be a major issue because our latest subprime numbers are 14.4% delinquent by at least one payment, plus another 4.5% in foreclosure, for a total of 18.9% either delinquent or in foreclosure.

For just subprime ARMs that number is 21.1%, so we agree with Mr. Perry's estimates of the current state of the market."

Bubble Sitters and Bitter Renters go mainstream: MSM reporting It's much cheaper to rent now than buy

Finally MSM and writers start sifting through the NAR and real estate clerk bullsh*t and spin and point out that it's MUCH cheaper to rent than own. With prices plummeting and unsold inventory skyrocketing, that simple truth is now glaring, no matter what the NAR says.

Too bad more people weren't reading HP in 2005 and 2006. Bet they wish they had been now.

Renting a home now cheaper than buying

A promotional spot for the National Association of Realtors came on the radio the other day. The spot, introduced as something called ‘Newsmakers,’ was supposed to sound like a news report, with the association’s president offering real estate advice.

“This is the best time to buy,” Pat Vredevoogd Combs, the president, said cheerfully. “There’s a lot of inventory in the marketplace. Interest rates are low. It’s a wonderful tax deduction.”

By the Realtors’ way of thinking, it’s always a good time to buy. Homeownership, they argue, is a way to achieve the American dream, save on taxes and earn a solid investment return all at the same time.

That’s how it has worked out for much of the last 15 years. But in a stark reversal, it’s now clear that people who chose renting over buying in the last two years made the right move.

The costs that come with buying a home — mortgage payments, property taxes, fees to real estate agents — remain a lot higher than the costs of renting. So buyers in many places are basically betting that home prices will rise smartly in the near future.

“House prices have to fall more before housing becomes a clear buy again,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com, a research company that helped conduct the analysis. “These markets aren’t as overvalued as they were a year ago or two years ago, but they’re still unfriendly. And that’s one of the reasons the market is still soft — people realise it’s not a bargain.”

Back in 2005, near the peak of the market, the chief economist of the Realtors’ association, David Lereah, published a book called ‘Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?’ The can’t-miss argument was wrong then, and it may still be wrong today.

After hearing that radio spot, I called Combs and asked her whether she thought there was any chance that she and her fellow realtors had gone a bit too far in promoting the boom. “I absolutely disagree,” she said, still cheerful. “We help people look at the marketplace.”

"Why renters are dumb and why you should buy a house now" NAR spin piece

Seriously, this "Smart Money" magazine article reads like it was written by the NAR and The Corrupt David Lereah. I wonder if the writer, Colleen DeBaise, and her rolodex of "experts", or Smart Money itself, was paid by the NAR. Or maybe she's a Desperate Homedebtor looking to get out from under her debt trap by pumping the market. Whatever the case, something is not right in Denmark.

Written in the Faux News "Fair and Balanced" approach and being neither, this article really shouts out to me "renters are stupid fools, and now is a great time to buy!"

You can email the "reporter" at cdebaise@smartmoney.com, and email Smart Money for being so stupid in publishing the exact wrong advice at the exact wrong time. Man, Smart Money is now from here on out an untrustworthy rag in my book. Here's the low-lights:

Embracing Real Estate

EXCUSE #1: "Everyone is way too insane about real estate." Count this as the "protest" renter — the person who perpetually rents, who thinks they're too cool for school and doesn't want to be one of those people who talks about renovation projects at a cocktail party. (The true "protest" renter also protests cocktail parties.) These people might also fear growing up, becoming their parents, owning guest towels, etc.

Counter: Well, owning your own home IS a responsibility — and if you're not ready for it, then don't do it. Of course, you'll miss out on nice tax breaks for mortgage interest and property taxes, which make owning a compelling proposition for many. Not to mention, you're not exactly building equity when you split the rent with the roomies

EXCUSE #2: "Renting is a good deal." Truth be told, there is some logic to that. After all, if something breaks in your rental apartment, you just call your landlord. You don't spend money on pricey renovations. Heck, you don't have to pay property taxes. And if you've got enough money for a down payment, why dump that cash into an expensive home, when you could use it to buy something like stocks instead?

Counter: Many people consider their home an investment. That means even if your home doesn't appreciate as much as your favorite stock or exchange-trade fund, you still gain because it doubles (hopefully) as a nice place to live.

EXCUSE #3: "Buy a house on my own? Then I'll really never get married. What do I do next — buy a cat?"

Counter: Tsk, tsk, says Francis, who hosts "Savvy Ladies" seminars to counsel women on personal-finance decisions. She's heard this excuse hundreds of times from female clients. "I call it the 'Prince Charming' syndrome," she says. "They put their life on hold until they find that Prince Charming.

EXCUSE #4: "I'm afraid of commitment."

Counter: Most experts recommend that you stay in your house at least three to five years, to recoup costs associated with closing and to see an increase in the home's value.

EXCUSE #5: "I'm worried about disaster striking." But should it stop you from buying a home?

Counter: Nope. Historically speaking, property values bounce back, especially if the disaster happens in a desirable area