Showing posts with label how. Show all posts
Showing posts with label how. Show all posts

April 23, 2008

Yale's Shiller says housing crash may exceed the Great Depression's 30% fall. And HP'ers ask - "yeah, and that's like news to anyone?"

We told you what was going to happen.

And then it happened.

We weren't smarter than anyone. We just read Manias, Panics and Crashes.

Too bad people didn't listen. Too bad people didn't do their own research. And too bad people listened to idiot realtors on commission. Hopefully they never will again.


A SPECIAL MESSAGE TO ANYONE THINKING OF CATCHING A FALLING KNIFE TODAY - DON'T DO IT. WE'RE JUST STARTING. HOMEDEBTORSHIP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT IS THE WORST FINANCIAL MISTAKE YOU COULD EVER MAKE. AND DO NOT LISTEN TO ANYONE WHO WOULD EARN A COMMISSION IF THEY COULD CON YOU INTO TAKING OUT A MORTGAGE OR 'BUYING' A DEPRECIATING HOUSE.

Yale’s Shiller: U.S. Housing Slump May Exceed Great Depression

Yale University economist Robert Shiller, pioneer of Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home-price index, said there’s a good chance housing prices will fall further than the 30% drop in the historic depression of the 1930s. Home prices nationwide already have dropped 15% since their peak in 2006, he said.

“I think there is a scenario that they could be down substantially more,” Mr. Shiller said during a speech at the New Haven Lawn Club.

Mr. Shiller, who admitted he has a reputation for being bearish, said real estate cycles typically take years to correct. Home prices rose about 85% from 1997 to 2006 adjusted for inflation, the biggest national housing boom in U.S. history, Mr. Shiller said. “Basically we’re in uncharted territory,” he said. “It seems we have developed a speculative culture about housing that never existed on a national basis before.” Many people became convinced that housing prices would increase 10% annually, a notion Mr. Shiller called crazy.