
It's kinda weird when reading the WSJ is like reading HP, complete with references to our bible "Manias, Panics and Crashes". First time I've seen the book cited in the MSM. Too bad, people could have really benefited if they had just known, like HP'ers.
Man, this is getting really scary really quick now. Feels like everything HP'ers have predicted is happening, and it's all coming to a boil in real time.
So, are you all ready? Time is running out.
The Panic Stage
In his book "Manias, Panics and Crashes," the economic historian Charles Kindleberger describes the stages of financial boom and bust. Students of the good professor will recognize where we now are in the current credit crisis: the panic stage.
It isn't a pretty sight, but a crash is far from inevitable if political and economic leaders keep their wits about them and focus on the proper remedies.
Amid the daily market turmoil, and to help prevent a crash, it helps to step back and remember how we got here. With the benefit of hindsight, everyone can see that the U.S. economy built up an enormous credit bubble that has now popped. Our own view -- which we warned about going back to 2003 -- is that this bubble was created principally by a Federal Reserve that kept real interest rates too low for too long.
Enter the panic stage. The desire for debt has turned into a stampede to quality, especially Treasury bills.
The danger now is that this panic becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy and talks us into a crash.
January 19, 2008
The Wall Street Journal says we're now in "Panic Stage", warns of crash
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1/19/2008
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Labels: all good manias must come to an end sometime, financial manias and panics, housingpanic
April 09, 2007
England home buyers lose their flipping minds - 125% mortgages and "speed viewings creating an atmosphere of panic"
Why does London feel like Phoenix and Miami circa Fall 2005? You remember, those now-hilarious days where sheeple stood in lines for new condos, where multiple bids would come in on a property's first day, and where real estate clerks were telling folks that "it's different this time"
Oh, man, that seems like a million years ago. For the US. But in London, our "blow-off top" is here.
And we all know how it ends...
Here's just two proofs of housing-obsessed England losing all touch with reality:
1) The 125% mortgage - a recipe for disaster:
Want to buy but don't have a deposit? Here comes the 125 per cent mortgage - Now you can borrow beyond your property's value
First time buyers who have no deposit are being encouraged on to the housing ladder with the help of a new mortgage that allows them to borrow more than the price of the property.
Alliance and Leicester last week became the latest lender to offer a 125 per cent mortgage.
PlusMortgage works by offering a secured loan (the mortgage part) on up to 95 per cent of the value of the property and a further unsecured loan on up to a further 30 per cent of the value.
2) Speed Viewings hit London
From the Guardian (print only): Estate agents use new high-pressure tactic as shortage of homes sparks buyer frenzy
In place of conventional estate agent guided tours of properties, agents are encouraging vendors to open their doors for just one hour and invite potential buyers to view their home en masse. Such "mass viewings" are creating an atmosphere of panic among homebuyers.
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4/09/2007
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Labels: blowoff top, financial manias and panics, housing ladder, london housing, oh dear god this will end badly, sheeple


