Showing posts with label debt-trap. Show all posts
Showing posts with label debt-trap. Show all posts

March 02, 2008

What's the worst case scenario for housing? Some say it's an epic and historic crash of 25% to 40% from the peak. So what do you say?


Have at it. What's the "oh dear god hide the children and head to the bunker" worst case scenario for housing?

The Worst-Case Scenario for Housing - Forecasters say a 40 percent drop in home prices from their peak is possible, though quite unlikely

"Our weaker scenario...is a 25 percent decline in prices," says Celia Chen, Moody's director of housing economics. "That would be in the case of a housing and credit crash and still a moderate recession." There are new worst-case whispers as well. "You want the darkest? Forty percent," she says. "There's your apocalypse."

Lawrence Yun expects the economy and the housing market to recover in the second half as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the government stimulus kick in. "In terms of home sales activity," he says, "we may be scratching the bottom."

December 04, 2007

Are they days of "home anchorship" and crushing mortgages over given today's global workforce needs and the economics of "owning" vs. renting?


Just asking.

I would imagine many of us bubble sitters will buy a house again, when the price is right and when we can rent it out for positive cash flow should we need to.

But if you're 20 to 45 and you want to compete and get ahead in the global workforce, you need to be mobile. The days of living and working in one city, one state, one country or for one company for the rest of your life are pretty much over.

So are the days of "home anchorship" over? Especially with rents being a fraction of "ownership" costs?

Professionals (real ones, not fake jobs like "realtor") who are mobile and open to relocation will be in demand. Those who are anchored to a city or a house they can't sell are going to have trouble competing.

Also, with national borders disappearing, the idea of geo-arbitrage taking off, and many people being able to work from anywhere on the planet thanks to the internet and mobile phones, isn't even the basic idea of "home anchorship" so last-century?

Thoughts?