Man, I sure wish we (and the market) had access to some real data, vs. the BS put out by the NAR and Commerce Department.
This new home survey is so worthless, I don't even know where to start. How they can put out a number with a straight face regarding new homes when they know damn straight (just read the homebuilder announcements) that cancellations are running 40% - 50%, yet this report just shows offers, not closed deals.
The price number is also laughable, knowing that builders are offering everything but the kitchen sink to sell dead inventory, but those discounts and incentives aren't recorded here.
At least the MSM is now talking about how laughable the data is (see below). But the headlines are still misleading at best. And today's new home report makes the NAR's report yesterday even more laughable and discredited. Americans, you're being misled, you're being lied to.
Here's your real headline, HP version:
NEW HOME SALES FALL OFF A CLIFF - DOWN 66.6%, REAL PRICES PLUNGE ANOTHER 20%. HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF REIC JOBS DISAPPEAR, HOUSING CRASH OF EPIC AND HISTORIC PROPORTIONS IS UPON US
Instead, here's what the Commerce Department and MSM give us today:
New-home sales plunge 16.6% to 937,000 - Commerce Department reports biggest percentage drop in 13 years
Sales of new homes plunged 16.6% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 937,000, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.
It was the lowest sales pace in four years, and was the biggest percentage decline in 13 years.
Sales were down 20.1% compared with January 2006.
Sales were down 20.1% compared with January 2006.
The decline in sales was much sharper than expected. The median forecast of economists surveyed by MarketWatch was a drop to 1.08 million units, annualized. See Economic Calendar.
Home builders have piled on incentives, including offering free vacations and new cars, to sell homes and reduce inventories. Such incentives aren't subtracted from the sales price reported to the government.
Sales are reported when a contract is signed, not at the closing of the sale. Home builders have reported a large increase in cancellations in recent months. Cancellations aren't reflected in the government data, so the reported sales are probably overstated.
Update - I liked this analyst quote later today:
"Let's cut to the chase - these numbers were ugly," wrote Mike Larson, real estate analyst at Weiss Research in Jupiter., Fla. "While the month-to-month changes in new home sales figures can be volatile, the magnitude of the decline is impressive.
