That's it folks. Had to come back for a minute to (finally) make the housing call.
Buy.
Over two years since we ended the blog, over five years since we started it.
Housing crashed. The world crashed. Markets crashed. 300,000+ realtors-on-commission went away, the rest of the cockroaches left scurrying to pick up crumbs. Millions of lives destroyed. Countries failed. Companies failed. 10%+ unemployment. Trillions of taxpayer dollars wasted. A desperate Fed. A pissed-off population. Traitors in DC. Angelo Mozilo still drinking Mai-Tais on his veranda.
But now, it's time. Finally.
Buy.
Buy, buy, buy, buy, buy.
This combination of low interest rates, low home prices, inventory oversupply, desperate sellers and great P/E's will never happen again in your lifetime. Or your children's lifetime. And then of course there's the reinflation/currency debasement underway, but you know all about that.
So this is it.
Buy.
It's the P/E, it will always be the P/E. And the forward P/E. It hath been foretold.
Do your own math.
Buy.
Peace out.
December 18, 2010
Buy.
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84 comments:
Inventories are still as high as they were at the peak of the crash.
http://timiacono.com/index.php/2010/11/23/existing-home-sales-drop-2-2-percent/
And that doesn't include the shadow inventory. Which isn't even close to clearing thanks to the fraudclosure mess. We're talking years of supply still backed up.
Interest rates may well be at an all-time low, but as interest rates go up, it forces down price that those who have to borrow can afford. If your plan is to be a home debtor, then now might not be a bad time. But if your plan is to invest, or to be free and clear, keep it in your pants.
Thanks to Bush 44 and soaring deficits, we're looking at the bond vigilantes pushing interest rates up a lot, plus hyperstagflation which will make it hard for most families to afford food and fuel, much less a mortgage.
Put your money in folding green, or better yet, silver and gold. When the inventories have cleared to 6 months or less, three months in a row, that will be the time to buy. For cash on the barrelhead, free and clear.
Buy to you too.... Go for it, it's never been a better time.... Keith I am glad to be a early poster and lurker for years, but you have too be kidding. P/E based on history is a fools game today! P/E will sink 50% at least on both sides going forward. You did make the call on gold, but when to sell??
You were an amazing blogger :-)
Simi Steve
I'm psychic. I knew you just posted.
First time back checking in a quite a while and you're not on any sort of RSS feed.
It's not time to buy yet Keith.
The banks have been selectively foreclosing and have only put the garbage out on the market.
In my neighborhood in Los Angeles (Hancock Park) the only foreclosures have been on arterial streets. Are you gonna tell me that out of a dozen streets in the neighborhood that people only used toxic loans and HELOCed their homes on the two arterial streets? (Rossmore and Highland for those that are curious and know the neighborhood)
I've seen the mortgages and know that they haven't filed NODs yet. There are plenty of jumbo OptionARMs waiting to reset.
Seattle is the same way as I follow their RE scene pretty closely too. I hear that there are many many people who aren't making payments buy haven't gotten their NOD's yet. Only the crap houses and condos are being released. The worst lines in the worst buildings are the first to get short sold or foreclosed. The cream of the crop is yet to come.
Hope all is well, but I'd wait a bit before buying IMHO.
Regards,
EconE
LOL! You unload some APPL and have money burning in your pockets?
Way too soon to buy here in central Phoenix.
Aaaahhh, now I see. We all responded with WTF are you talking about? Buy when it's the worst investment mentality! Too early still... another 50%. Maybe 1972?Simi Steve
The payoff won't be immediate. Homes won't skyrocket in price 100% in 12 months. It's not 2005.
But if you don't have a home today, and you rent, then you should buy a home if you can.
If you have the means to invest in a home you can rent out, for positive cash flow, you should buy a home.
2020 is calling. And it's saying "boy, aren't you glad you bought a home in 2010, and 2011, when NOBODY was buying homes?"
Buy low. Sell hi. Sell when everyone is buying, buy when everyone is selling.
And remember, a home is a place to live, first and foremost. Go get a good one, one you can afford. Or one you can rent out and make money.
This ain't brain surgery.
Best of luck out there.
Nouriel Roubini Purchases $5.5 Million Condo in East Village of Manhattan
To buy or not depends on your situation. If you’re buying for investment you have to steal it to make since as a flip or a long-term rental. If you’re buying to live in it is a good time to buy, low interest rates and ample inventor to chose from.
As far seeing any increase in value any time soon? Not going to happen. In fact if you’re holding for investment or living in you will have to live with further price declines. I have been selling bank owned properties full time for four years now and I see no let up in the inventory or the price declines until 2013 at the earliest and that’s if the economy picks back up.
I have been looking for a house for myself (albeit I have some very specific criteria) for over a year and a half now and am in no way discouraged because I know there will more of what I want for a long time to come now.
Towjam
That depends on where it is. Real estate is still local. If you're in Vegas, you should be buying anything and everything because its all below rental parity and you make money from the day you buy. If youre in another similar market where you can own for significantly less than it costs to rent by all means get to it already!
That said here in NJ, still not the time to buy but definitely the time to look. We got at least another 20% to fall overall, but recently I have seen a few properties that make sense. They're still very few and sell very quick because that 20% is already reflected in the list price. It wont be long before that'd the norm and not the exception. Keep your eyes peeled!
hahah keith... i still check from time to time... funny you post this..
we did buy in an area where townhouses were formally in 350-500k range.. we got a brand spanking new sf home built starting at 360k ending in the low fours with options... @ 4% fed rate loan.. after we closed the builder jacked the price back up 20k.. and now rates seem to be going up.
THANKS!!!!!
Good to hear from you Keith. Chris from Boom2Bust.com (now SurvivalAndProsperity.com) here. Interesting housing call. Especially in light of what looks to be a banner-year for foreclosures in 2011:
http://survivalandprosperity.com/2010/12/16/coming-foreclosures-could-dampen-housing-prices/
Others here have mentioned an inventory glut as well. Any thoughts about this? Regardless, nice to see you blogging again (even if it's just one post), and happy holidays to you and all your readers!
"Yeah chase are being pigs again
We're freaking out trying to get them to stop being jerks
Andrew paid property tax thru 2011 right?
They said we were all good
So
Today we see they opened up another escrow account for property tax for 2012
WTF???
So I called them, the local branch, and was on the phone forever and our loan has gone to an escalation department because I told her we cannot pay 4k a month, no matter what they say. Our house payment has to stay the same no matter what. They can send us a bill fo 45 million if they want it doesn't matter. We didn't do anything wrong that's what kills me! We were a few months late on the last 1000 ( out of 11,000) of property tax. We bailed these fuckers out!!"
__________________
Can somebody help me? I have a friend in Portland, Oregon. Her husband is a manager with Pepsi, making a GOOD income.
OK, they missed $1000 of their $11,000 property taxes, barely got it right after the deadline.
4000 square ft house on market for $849,000. Because of the missed property tax, chase changed their payments from $2500 a month to $4000, last month. This includes the $10,000 in insurance and $11,000 in property taxes now included in the monthly payment. None of this happened until they put the house on the market (because they wanted a smaller house). They have $400,000 equity in the house. It sounds to me like Chase is trying to foreclose on them. They have two boys and a daughter at Sarah Lawrence and the husband has a form of chronic leukemia, so they don't need this!
What's going on.
Could anybody be so kind as to offer some advice?! Would so appreciate it??!
Buy where.
Not time to buy in the better parts of San Diego, either.
-CA renter
Keith,
I agree with several other posters here. It's really a tale of 2 cities. It s a great time to buy in low cost cities because of rates, but many of the high priced cities in CA are still way overpriced because banks are holding onto inventory.
Also, the conforming loan limits by county are still based on 2007 home prices. I can get a loan for almost $750k in LA county right now, but when they stop extending the program and reset it to 50% above CURRENT median home prices, conforming loan limits drop to about $550k in LA, which will drop prices almost immediately. Extension of conforming limits are likely to end in October of this year...likely due to teabagging efforts...about the only thing they are good for.
Here's a typical beauty in my neck of the woods, Pasadena, CA. $800k for a 2000 square foot shack that sold for $1M near the peak.
http://www.redfin.com/search#!lat=34.18523582900562&long=-118.13220977783203&market=socal&num_beds=3®ion_id=14498®ion_type=6&v=6&zoomLevel=11
Banks have released very little inventory above $300k. It will still be another 2 years or so before the upper end of the market is a good place to buy.
I bought - just after Nouriel did. And now Keith...
In NZ, bought a couple of hundred thou under Council valuation. Slightly urgent seller who had purchased. Saved extra $250K on top of what we had from sale of last property in 2006. Had stalled they buy process and rented, particularly after coming across HP, Patrick etc. So have nearly 90% equirty and wil keep paying down debt until the house is free and clear. Thanks
Keith - amazing. I gave up on checking your blogs a good year ago or more, figuring you had indeed ridden off into the sunset. Tonight as I was a post on Dr. Housing Bubble, I saw your link in the sidebar and what-the-heck clicked it and here you are.
The other coincidence is that I bought a house just this month. After waiting and watching for more than five years, and waiting this house out through almost three years of price intransigence, the seller capitulated and we got a fair deal, at a time when our cash was earning almost nothing (that will foul up one's rent ratio pretty quickly).
Do I think prices here in Central Florida could decline further? Yes. But for me they can't decline more than they have because I bought the place for exactly 50% of its 2005 peak value, so cash-flow wise I am better off and my paper money is no longer at risk, since it is gone.
Anyway, welcome back - hope you get into it again in some way. And I clearly support your exhortation to buy, having just now put my money where my mouth is. Cheers.
I agree with some of the folks, especially with the one in Florida. I was looking at 2 condos my friend had bought down there, he paid 199k and 230k respectively. How much are they selling for now? 45 - 60k.
If that's not a cheap price than I don't know what is.
In New Jersey, things are not the same. Home prices are down 15 - 25% here and are definitely NOT affordable. On top of that, you have to be ready to pay 7 - 8k a year in taxes ($800 a month). Keith can tell me what he wants, but either I am delusional or home prices drop another 15% here in Jersey.
At last. Estate agents will breath a sigh of relief everywhere! Unfortunately...
I think it is safe to say that I will wait , Keith.
We have often said here , and I found HP at it's inception in 05 , the true bottom will be 2014 - 2015.
The second punch is coming . A whole crapload of mortgages yet to reset . Many toxic loans still coming at us.
HOLD. Wait a few more years. The second punch will be just as bad.
Rent vs. own ratio to flip in 2011?
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/01/04/rent-vs-own-ratio-to-flip-in-2011/
Congress stopped house prices from falling by wasting money on the homebuyers' tax credit. After the credit ended, house prices have restarted their market-driven way down. While I believe that their largest drop is behind us, it shouldn't hurt to wait another two years. The normal bottom of a housing market is not V-shaped as for stocks but U-shaped.
Hi Keith--
Thanks for the recommendation, duly noted. You have enough credibility in my household, having held us from the brink of buying in 2008 (peak in our zipcode), so we'll look at the spring market a bit more enthusiastically.
Made two offers in fall. Neither seller wanted the "lowball." Both properties still on the market. While we were negotiating, a property we "lowballed" last winter sold for 55k less than our best offer.
If we're on the fence about something at a good price, your instincts will help us close the deal.
Best wishes!
Buy a $300,000 home today, down from $500,000 in 2007.
$1500 payment locked in for 30 years
Rent today: $2000
Rent in 2020: $2500
Rent in 2030: $3000
Rent in 2040: $4000
Value in 2040: $1 million+
Folks, that's how you get rich
Hi keith, thanks for the post! I am looking at both a condo to live in as well as one to rent. Although prices in Miami Beach and the Aventura area have gone down significantly from the peak of 2006, I can tell you that prices have been going up lately, mainly due to investors who bought properties for cash and are now selling them again...flipping seems to be happening all over again.
I hope you are doing well,you were istrumental in stopping me from buying a condo in 2006!!! The thing is that this housing mess has taken a lot of our time and energy. Happy New Year Keith!
I have been following your blogs since the beginning, and you have been right all along and on calls like this. I have been wondering the same thing about this being THE time to buy, and with your endorsement it seems that it is.
Thanks for the great blogs and information.
Keith, one last note..
You mention currency debasement for reflation. How do you see this effecting and playing out in housing prices? With the debasement I could see all commodities costing more, but also seems that interest rates would increase to fight inflation and thus increase mortgage rates and reduce borrowing/purchasing power for housing and result in lower prices.. How would this play out exactly?
I can't recommend a "buy" just yet here in Seattle. Prices are still coming down but have not yet hit their bottom. Another couple years and we should be scraping bottom...or establishing a new long term plateau.
Either way good to see you poppin in and hope all is well.
P.S. The "Orange One" got slapped with a "chump change" fee and that was it. "So yes junior, crime really does pay."
I think you are correct with a few concerns. Buy your house to live in it with cash. Don't have any debt on it including property taxes or liens or anything!
Add a wood burner that burns anything to maintain heat and can boil water. Find a few simple large, capped, water storage barrels.
Create internal strong window shutters and add movable barracades on the doors. Keep it cheap and simple and easy to use. Grab lots of cheap, warm easy to clean clothes from cheap thrift stores and store them. Put in a year's worth of canned goods and some bottled water.
Buy a few boxes of used books and magazines. Create a compost heap in yard. Get hunting rifles or crossbows or pellet guns for 'hunting'. Buy sleeping bags that dry easily and keep you warm in the coldest nights.
Treat your home as a castle because a Giant Reset is coming as many towns, cities, counties, districts, ngo's, non profits, utilities, default or 'fail to pay' their bonds or interest or loans and have to lay off firefighters, police, Medical staff. If you can move in some relatives and friends into your house. Protect it and it will protect you.
Oh....you may find yourselves evicted from those homes you buy as a result that the seller never had clear title to sell it to you or as the Giant Reset hits, the new governments need your home for previous owners or more needy families or political hacks.
They may not refund your money and will take the house and everything in it. Good luck with that new house purchase. I will wait.
Maybe as a result of the Giant Reset of the 2nd Great Depression, I will be given a house by the new Powers-that-be. Strangers things are going to happen. Stay well. Make lots of friends.
Move in with relatives and friends so you survive the coming years. Oh, Soylent Blue was served 6 times a week and Soylent Green was served once a week. Don't hang out in the streets with violent protestors.......
Keith? Is it really you? so glad you finally came up for air. get bored of eastern europe? Thought of you today as my third favorite keith exited stage right (olbermann). Thank you again for saving me financially in 2006 with the situation in FL. I am moving to Southern Cali next month to scope out another dire situation - but even though I plan on enjoying the pleasure of renting a place 1 block from the Pacific for less than $1k - I will keep your advice in mind... but the thoughts of taxes, maintenance, etc are too much to bear right now.
Someone (Kieffer) should start an inflation blog.
It's coming folks. Actually, it's here folks. And it's gonna be a round of inflation that'll be a doozy.
Excuse me now. I have to get my spit balls ready for the SOTU speech tonight.
Bought a once $300k property for $120k (less than it would cost to build and it comes with land) several months ago and have made an offer of $75k on a once $250k property to the bank and expect to get it. When I rent it out I will have a very nice return.
David Crisp, Wife, 8 Others Arrested
http://www.turnto23.com/news/26572180/detail.html
Not so fast Keith...
The jews are nowhere near finished ass raping the population in my locale. In fact, it's as if they just popped a handful of viagra and are now working up a second wind.
Where's your special post about Egypt?
All predicted by Geo. W Bush no less!!!
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/61021/f-gregory-gause-iii/can-democracy-stop-terrorism
Summary: The Bush administration contends that the push for democracy in the Muslim world will improve U.S. security. But this premise is faulty: there is no evidence that democracy reduces terrorism. Indeed, a democratic Middle East would probably result in Islamist governments unwilling to cooperate with Washington.
F. GREGORY GAUSE III is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Vermont and Director of its Middle East Studies Program.
.....
WHAT FREEDOM BRINGS
The United States is engaged in what President George W. Bush has called a "generational challenge" to instill democracy in the Arab world. The Bush administration and its defenders contend that this push for Arab democracy will not only spread American values but also improve U.S. security. As democracy grows in the Arab world, the thinking goes, the region will stop generating anti-American terrorism. Promoting democracy in the Middle East is therefore not merely consistent with U.S. security goals; it is necessary to achieve them.
borkafatty aka the pig said...
That depends on where it is. Real estate is still local.
==================================
So true.
It's ALWAYS location, location, LOCATION!!!
Here in southern Dork (York) Co PA, there was never a run up in price, EVER. Because of the constant influx/turnover by Maryland/Baltimore/D.C. immigrants, and limited land to build on, housing has always been at a premium, but not outrageous. Enough of them move in to keep the local homebuilders employed, but on the flip side, not enough can justify the 2-3-4-5 hour commute (one way) back down to Md/DC every day to move up here. Keeps the turnover just about right.
So for here, BUY is the word. You can buy a nice home a lot cheaper than renting, always could.
P/E says buy now!
On the other side of the coin, Mrs. Stuck and I have been following several properties in more tax friendly states (property taxes are horrendous here) looking for a nice retirement home to buy with ready cash. We are in no hurry because we do not have to sell the old homestead first to have cash for a down payment. Lucky us, thank the Lord!
The prices on our target properties have been plummeting for over 2-3 years, with no let up in sight, as underwater homeowners chase zero! In this case however, we are in NO hurry to buy, as we feel things will get a lot worse, and prices go a lot lower.
P/E says buy.....just not yet!
Again Buy or Sell is always location, location, LOCATION!
Nice to see you back Keith, if only for an little bit!
and the manipulation of demand and supply variables for housing credit and Real Estate purchases goes on...
http://www.wtffinance.com
Hey what about doing a foreclosure blog
Really disappointed you pulled the plug so abruptly, Keith.
But I understand. There was certainly quite a bit of Organized disruption going on.
Time to buy? Where? In some areas, yes, maybe.
Where I live (DC) the time to buy was 2 years ago. Back then Case Shiller was at 165. Today its closer to 185 & rising.
In DC, the bottom was in 2009 and it never ever is coming back.
Bought a house LAST December with VA loan (0% down...sign and drive! Hard to beat!). Interest rate was fixed at 5% and house had been listed at $259 down from $379 at peak.
House is set up as a duplex with mother in law unit on bottom floor but both top and bottom are 1500 SQ FT (3K total).
I gave the seller $242, they pay closing costs. Picked up the 8K from the Feds to apply to IRS debt.
ALSO had a tenant in tow at 1K per month, so actual pre-tax cost was less then $800 monthly (we have high prop. taxes and VA requires prop taxes and insurance to be collected monthly in payment).
Then refinanced (called a Streamline in VA parlance) at 4% fixed when it hit that for about 18 hours...had my mortgage broker on alert...reducing payment $150 monthly.
Took the rental revenue and paid off credit cards.
NOW I'm looking to buy at least one investment property every 18 months. Strictly rental. I don't care about the appreciation.
401Ks are bullshit.
Wall Street FUCKED everyone again...surprise.
Honica is still a racist FUCKTARD!
At this point the only winning play seems to buy residential rentals that market to lower income people.
The luxury market is prestigious, but the rich are fickle.
There will ALWAYS be poor people. And they have to live somewhere.
In SOME areas you might want to start buying, but I wouldn't say as a rule to start buying anywhere you are in the country. Out here in California there are still some overpriced markets. In Orange County, values in many areas are still well above the historical trend line and price to rent ratios are still out of whack. Once rates go up, it should force values down to make up for the loss in affordability. If you're looking to buy in a former bubble area, do your research first.
I think the best time to buy is when the price is down knowledge doesnt' hurt either, i recommend everyone should read "how might warren buffett invest in real estate?", i think its the best way to prevent real estate bubbles and crashes. you can get it at amazon.com or get more info at http://www.warrenbuffettinvestinrealestate.com
PE is a problem guys and girls. Let me re-word that so it's easy to understand. PE is BULLSHIT. Not P stands for price and E stands for earning. Keith is under the assumption that earning will remain constant but with banks collapsing around us, people loosing their jobs, thousands fighting for the same jobs. Most are willing to do jobs that only illegal aliens would do a few years ago. So plain and simple, you drop that E and your ratio shoot sup. Example.
210/70 = 3 (home 210k, salary 70k)
210/35 = 6 (home 210k, salary 35k)
Do you see how fast that PE becomes less pretty. All this location BS, time to buy crap, etc is making me puke.
Danny
Come back! Come back! To SootAndAshes we will take you! Come BAAAACKKK!
-JDF
Hi Keith!!!!
Hi Keith!!!
FMW
We need a new blog called Panic Panic. Hell in a toboggan, cats and dogs living together, invading squadrons of black swans, Chicken Little as Emperor King, batsh*t crazy panic.
Which I would read to calm down.
Hope you and yours and all are well.
WTH! You came back three months ago and I am just now finding out??
Could be a time to buy. Condos in my hood are going for 30k and renting out for $800-$900/mo. Pretty good cash-flow.
Blog more Keith. Cmon, it's not that hard.
Keith - nice to hear from you, you old muckety muck.
I remember your MOaBO call and the gold call and all the great wisdom i got from this blog. listening this time. hope i can get backing. wish me luck, as i wish you.
msNJ
PE is a problem guys and girls. Let me re-word that so it's easy to understand. PE is BULLSHIT. Not P stands for price and E stands for earning. Keith is under the assumption that earning will remain constant but with banks collapsing around us, people loosing their jobs, thousands fighting for the same jobs. Most are willing to do jobs that only illegal aliens would do a few years ago. So plain and simple, you drop that E and your ratio shoot sup. Example.
210/70 = 3 (home 210k, salary 70k)
210/35 = 6 (home 210k, salary 35k)
Do you see how fast that PE becomes less pretty. All this location BS, time to buy crap, etc is making me puke.
Danny
Danny, you knocked this one out of the park. Keith is dead wrong about this being the time to buy.
Uncle Ben is printing like hell, but the money is going into commodities and the market. Earnings are what will drive houses, and so far, nothing. Jim Rickards is saying another 20% off house prices. That would blow. You save real hard for that 20% down payment, only to see it go away in a down market.
Uncle Ben's printing will eventually put a floor in house prices, but it ain't now, and it wasn't back in December.
We had availed a housing loan two years ago and we were able to get the house and moved in last year. Of course it will be a long time before we can have the titled transferred to our name since a lot of monthly payments still has to be made.
Shiller Says Home-Price Drop of 10%-25% ‘Wouldn’t Surprise Me’
Robert Shiller, the economist who co- founded the S&P/Case-Shiller Index, said a 10 percent to 25 percent decline in U.S. home prices in the next five years “wouldn’t surprise me at all.” “There’s no precedent for this statistically, so no way to predict,” Shiller said today at a conference hosted by Standard & Poor’s in New York. A model for the U.S. may be Japan, where home prices fell for 15 years, Shiller said.
Keith,
We need you here in Canada! We have CANADIAN HOUSING PANIC going on big time. There's a bubble going on in Vancouver that would put Phoenix to shame.
Nationwide housing prices up 8.6% YoY, in Vancouver 25.7% YoY! The CREA (Canada's version of NAR)official line is "If Vancouver sales are excluded from the calculation, the year-over-year change in the national average price amounts to 5.6 per cent; excluding Toronto and Vancouver shrinks the increase to 3.7 per cent." Yup, no problem here!
Our Central Bank (GS Alumnus) is holding rates at 1% (lower than they were during the Great Depression even though all the jobs lost in the crisis have recovered and inflation is at 3.3% vs 2% target) so you can get a mortgage at 2.20%.
Unbelievable...after all that has happened in the US so recently we are repeating the same mistakes here in Canada.
Man I miss HP - was here from about 2006.
Aloha Eric
Shiller says today "Wouldn't be surprised if RE fell 10=25% over the next five years" Bloomberg is saying it looks like Japan in the '90's. All real estate is local but economics affect everyone. We're still in uncharted territory and we're way beyond printing more paper. Beware everyone...
Smug Bastard closed on Smug Bastard Central in St. Louis on January 13, 2011. I came back on the chance that Keith had come back to do a little house cleaning. I agree with his point about some markets but others.... eh, time will tell, huh? Thanks Keith. You did this for nothing for anyone who bothered to do a little home work and it was a really fun ride - but not one that I care to repeat. I'm too old for this shit.
Jeff Graff
St. Louis, MO
It’s been since December when this blog was created but now that its summer of 2011 “The Real Estate Season” now is the best time to buy. If anything, it’s even better as time goes on.
Anonymous said...
Where I live (DC) the time to buy was 2 years ago. Back then Case Shiller was at 165. Today its closer to 185 & rising.
In DC, the bottom was in 2009 and it never ever is coming back
Yep - since then DC has tacked on another percent - Case Shiller is at 187 and rising 4% per year.
I Feel bad for those who did not buy in early 2009. Sad to say, but some of them truly were priced out forever...
The cheerleading is back! One month of gains and Reagor is back at it.
http://www.azcentral.com/community/ahwatukee/articles/2011/07/08/20110708arizona-housing-market-gaining-ground.html
I don't see this forming a trend. The jobs situation in Phoenix is terrible and the shadow inventory looms large.
Keith, you are wrong!
A) House prices stagnant even though interests rates are at all time lows.
B) Before any meaningful real recovery comes to housing prices, interest rates will rise.. what will that do to housing prices?
C)Jobs, Jobs, Jobs... I don't care what you say Keith! Almost 20% unemployment and will continue to get worse.. what will that do for home values?
Looks like you swallowed the Obama Kool Aid Keith!
We are doing the same thing Japan did and the prices didn't level out until 15 years later.
Here we are in late July 2011, and our esteemed president is living up to the nickname I gave him years ago. The Retarded Negro won't cut a fucking thing in this budget, but let's soak the rich some more. I didn't think it was possible, but he's making Dubya look pretty good.
Oh, those house prices are doing wonders since your "Buy" recommendation in December.
Yeah, I'd probably be in hiding myself, Loser.
We kept telling Keith that such a crash takes generational time to resolve itself. But Keith is obviously just scheming for his own benefit. So he compressed the Stages of Grief down to a few weeks or months per stage, instead of the solid YEARS per stage that are really required.
1. Denial: "It can't be happening"
2. Anger: "Why me? It's not fair"
3. Bargaining: "Just let me live to see my children graduate"
4. Depression: "I'm so sad, why bother with anything?"
5. Acceptance: "It's going to be OK."
Here's the truth, Keith: WE'RE STILL IN THE DENIAL PHASE. Most people are calling the bottom in every month, and are taking each Spring selling season as "aha, now comes the recovery". Prices are mainly dropping from force-- foreclosures, short sales. Prices are not dropping from voluntary means. Prices amongst unforced sellers are still at epidemic levels of WISHING.
True, some of the more advanced areas are into the Anger phase. But essentially no one caught up in the Housing Bubble is in the Bargaining stage.
This U.S. housing ennui will carry on into the 2020s. That's A.D., folks. Japan has endured 20 years of deflation and stagnation, and we've tried to cover up our same problems in the same way. So we're in for at least 20 years of the same results. So, the "buy" signal of some scheming property flipper like Keith isn't going to truly arrive until the 2020s.
"No matter what some agency may say, we've always been and always will be a triple-A country." -
Barack "I'm a fucking retard" Obama
And then a few eyes opened and they realized that lines like "the greatest country on earth" might just be a bunch of bullshit to make ourselves feel better.
I seriously never thought that this spit and polished politician would make a simpleton like George Bush look smart, but damn if he hasn't done just that.
Sorry to see this great blog end on such a WRONG note!
We never got to capitulation - but we will.
Home prices are about half-way through their purging process - why would anyone want to buy when the best deals are yet to come.
This blog was timely, fun and right-on during the mania. I'm not sure what caused a premature end followed by such a poor call on the bottom of the housing market - perhaps just fatigue of the daily grind?
From housing panic to debt crisis in just a few years. How do they do it? All i know is that we are in a real big mess!!
Wow I miss it in here.
So how is everything working out Kieth? That "buy" was a stupid call in fact DR Horton, Pulte, McMillin all heard you say build.....so they did and have created an even larger inventory. What a mess. I htink we need Scooby Doo and the ganag to see if they can pull that mask off of Obama.....I think it is really Bush in an Obama mask. You fucked up endorsing that peice of shit loser.
Keith--come back! We need you!
Keith,
It really is a loss that you do not write here anymore.
This blog was more about the housing market.
This was a blog where I was able to get the truth 3-5 years before the media covered it.
1) I learned about Ron Paul here
2) I learned about the Housing Bubble here before 99% of the population.
3) I learned to invest money in Gold, Silver, Oil, and Natural Resources back in 2007 and made a killing because we would discuss Bernanke and his dollar inflating policy's and how that related to commodities going up.
4) I learned about monetary policy.
And I am not just blowing smoke up Keith's ass. It was mainly the regular posters who would turn every post into an excuse to discuss the truth of the economy they were witnessing in their end of the world. I learned from the posters more then just Keith.
I really wish this community still existed.
hahah keith... i still check from time to time... funny you post this..
we did buy in an area where townhouses were formally in 350-500k range.. we got a brand spanking new sf home built starting at 360k ending in the low fours with options... @ 4% fed rate loan.. after we closed the builder jacked the price back up 20k.. and now rates seem to be going up.
Thanks
How's that buy call looking now, almost a year later? House prices have continued to fall, and are projected to fall another 5% where I live. Not to mention all the foreclosures held by banks for fear of flooding the market with the reality that there are 3x the amount of homes for sale in a typical year sitting idle?
I'll wait another 3 years or so, thanks.
Keith:
I really enjoyed reading your insights. Do you blog anywhere else. I know that this blog is finished and that Soot and Ashes appears to be done as well. You need a third act to complete the trilogy.
Keith --
I think it's time for another post, don't you?
"ZOMG SELL AND RUN FOR YOUR LIFE"
Best regards,
cg
Keith was so, so right. Stayed out of the mania, bought my first home May 2011. Made 40% profit in just under 4 years, sold (a little too low) and bought a bigger, nicer place, just about the last of the short sales, for less than I sold the first one for. Then I refi'd at 3.25%. Then the day of Brexit I said screw it and refi'd AGAIN at 3%. Don't even care where the market goes, my monthly is less than a quarter of my after-tax. My P/E is 2.75. Life is grand.
Which is good because the crash chewed up my in-laws and spit them out, so we help support them.
Followed your advice and my own inclinations and bought my first home May 2011. Sold four years later and made pretty good bank. Around 40%. Bought the last of the short sales, a bigger, nicer place. Refi'd the day of Brexit at 3%.
My p/e is 2.75. Life is good. I get to live the American Dream while I watch it fall apart for so many others. A couple took my advice.
And meanwhile the economy goes completely wonky. Institutional investors quietly backing out of stocks while a mania builds among retail investors. Stock bubbles everywhere. Stalled earnings. People struggling and turning to drugs while the media assures them everything is great.
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