HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with an Attitude Problem, 2005 - 2008: BUBBLETALK - open thread to talk about the housing bubble and crash and ongoing mortgage meltdown

March 27, 2008

BUBBLETALK - open thread to talk about the housing bubble and crash and ongoing mortgage meltdown

Chatter away

361 comments:

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Anonymous said...: Wow! The media is not doing any of us any favors.. Continuing to exploit the sluggish real estate market keeps buyers/investors on the fence.. Being in south Florida our real estate market is a bit immune to national figures, but the "mortgage meltdown" helps nobody.. We'll see what the economy does when we see a change in Federal Govenment offices..; March 17, 2008 3:46 AM
Anonymous said...: WHILE YOU'VE BEEN ASLEEP KEITH:

Bear Stearns sold for $2 a share. Just two trading days ago, it was $55+.

Just wait until the counterparty holders have to writeoff whatever Bear was on the other end of.; March 17, 2008 3:51 AM
Anonymous said...: UTAH REALTOR CALLS BOTTOM!

“Michael Dinsmore, of Encore Mortgage, said while 2005 is long gone, both buyers and sellers are seeing more realistic prices for homes in Washington County. ‘In 2005, the value of properties was less than the selling price,’ Dinsmore said. ‘Now, the housing is where it’s supposed to be.’”; March 17, 2008 4:07 AM
Anonymous said...: Hey Anon March 15, 2008 11:59 PM

WTF 126, 500 for 2509 sq ft is that a typo some kinda tax lien sale what a deal, you coulndt even get that in compton!

Blossom Valley, San Jose, Ca.

Bed 5, Baths 3, 2509 SF
Sold for: $126,500 (02/26/2008)
Last Sale: $798,500 (08/02/2006); March 17, 2008 4:28 AM
Anonymous said...: .

H5N1 Bird flu, GREAT!

And China is hosting the Olympics?

Tens of thousands dragging that back here!

Before they show any symptoms....then it's to late!

.; March 17, 2008 5:01 AM
Anonymous said...: Please someone explain to me why,

all of our jobs went overseas,

now Bill Gates wants more visas issued for foreign workers to come here for work!

We send the work there and bring them here to take up whats left?????

What the F**K?

.; March 17, 2008 5:04 AM
Anonymous said...: 2008-03-17

US Dollar Index: 70.698 plunging hard

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/
?s=NYBOT_DX

The dollar plunged across the board on Monday as the spreading U.S. financial crisis led to JPMorgan Chase acquiring stricken investment bank Bear Stearns, stirring fears that more financial firms could become casualties.

The Federal Reserve took more emergency measures to stem the fast-spreading financial crisis, cutting its discount rate on Sunday and opening up discount window lending to major investment banks, a tool not used since the Great Depression.

As the dollar slid 3 percent against the yen at one point to its lowest since 1995, investors became more convinced that the Fed and other major central banks may have to conduct coordinated dollar-buying intervention to stem the sell-off.

"The speed of the slide in the dollar/yen is so rapid that U.S. action alone can no longer stop the dollar's downward trend," said Koichi Ogawa, chief portfolio manager at Daiwa SB Investment. "The time is ripe for coordinated intervention by U.S., European and Japanese authorities."

Investors have dumped the dollar on doubts about the Fed's ability to contain the deepening credit market turmoil, which has hobbled its efforts to help the economy by slashing rates and raised the threat of a protracted U.S. economic recession.

Traders said the dollar was suffering from an almost perfect storm of negative factors: a worsening financial crisis originating in the United States, unusually aggressive Fed rate cuts and investors diversifying away from the U.S. currency.

"Market players are afraid that there will be a second and third Bear Stearns out there," said Kosuke Hanao, head of forex sales at HSBC in Tokyo.

The dollar hit a record low versus the Swiss franc and struck a 13-year low beneath 96 yen on deteriorating confidence in U.S. assets from the crisis spawned by the defaults on U.S. subprime mortgages.

"The market is totally panicking," said a trader at a big Japanese bank. "The fact that the Fed had to announce its emergency steps on Sunday night highlighted the seriousness of the situation."

The dollar slide as far as 95.77 yen on trading platform EBS, down more than 3 percent on the day

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/
080317/markets_forex.html?.v=1; March 17, 2008 6:06 AM
Anonymous said...: Oil Prices Rise to All-Time High Above $111 As US Dollar Sinks

Oil prices jumped to an all-time trading high Monday in Asia as the tumbling U.S. dollar and plunging stock markets prompted investors to seek shelter in commodities.

Investors fled the dollar after a surprise move by the U.S. Federal Reserve on Sunday to provide cash to financially squeezed Wall Street investment houses pushed the battered greenback deeper into multiyear lows against the yen.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/
080317/oil_prices.html; March 17, 2008 6:10 AM
Anonymous said...: Economic winter is on its way

While the plunging dollar and rising gas prices show that the predicted deflation hasn't kicked in yet, the Bear Stearns bailout, the decline in the number of mortgage applications and the increase in the TED Spread to levels that haven't been seen since 1987s Black Monday crash indicate that the contraction in the supply of dollar-denominated credit is already upon us.

Simply printing more money is not an option because a Federal Reserve Note is not, technically, a dollar in the sense that it was originally defined – a silver coin of the United States containing 371.25 grains of silver – but merely a promissory note from the Federal Reserve to the U.S. government.

When debt is currency, a collapse in debt creation will tend to presage a collapse in currency.

It is, perhaps, worth noting that even if one ignores the collector's value, a single 19th century dollar is now worth $17.54.

The idea that the Federal Reserve exists to fight inflation, preserve a strong currency and smooth out the business cycle has everything wildly backwards, as the only things that the Federal Reserve actually does is to create inflation, reduce the value of its own debt currency and exacerbate the business cycle in precisely the manner we are witnessing today.

http://www.wnd.com/index.php?
fa=PAGE.view&pageId=59102; March 17, 2008 6:15 AM
Anonymous said...: Fed Lowers Discount Rate, Expands Lending to Prevent Meltdown

The dollar weakened to as low as 95.76 yen, a level not seen since August 1995, from 99.09 on March 14. It dropped to a record low of $1.5903 per euro and an all-time low of 0.9638 Swiss francs. Treasuries rose, causing the 10-year yield to fall 12 basis points to 3.34 percent as traders bet the U.S. central bank will lower its benchmark rate by a full percentage point when it meets tomorrow. Japan's 10-year government bond yield fell 1.5 basis points to 1.245 percent.

Gold for immediate delivery climbed as much as 3 percent to a record $1,032 an ounce as investors sought a haven against the weakening currency. Crude oil gained as much as 1.1 percent to a record $111.42.

``The dollar is facing a credibility crisis,'' said Koji Fukaya, a senior currency strategist at Deutsche Securities, the Tokyo unit of Deutsche Bank AG, the world's largest currency trader. ``All the markets are entering a vicious cycle.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/
news?pid=20601080&sid=ao3Y1_qw.NHA; March 17, 2008 6:20 AM
Anonymous said...: The US dollar is crashing, and this is no alarmist statement. The greenback fell sharply in the Asian trading session Monday against the Euro, Japanese yen and Swiss franc.

In an extremely rare move, the Federal Reserve announced at the start of trading on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that they are slashing the discount rate (from 3.5% to 3.25%) on direct loans to commercial banks and is allowing securities firms to borrow at the rate as well.

The Fed has also extended the maximum term of loans to commercial banks to 90 days from 30 days. Usually the Fed doesn’t make any weekend change in borrowing costs, and this move is the first since 1979.

No wonder the forex markets are making such big moves now. Since the Fed deems it so urgent to make this emergency decision, then surely they know that things are much much worse than they look on the surface.

However, instead of boosting the financial markets with confidence with this move, it is having a negative effect.

According to UK Independent, Fed Chairman Bernanke will hold an emergency meeting with President Bush and Treasury Secretary Paulson today before he decides how large an interest rate cut is needed to restore confidence in the financial system.

The report said Bernanke was urged over the weekend to consider as much as a 100 bps rate cut when the Fed holds its meeting on Tuesday. There is now a good chance the Fed will cut the main rate by 100 bp on Tuesday.

http://www.gracecheng.com/forex/
2008/03/17/dollar-plunges-after-
feds-surprise-rate-cut/; March 17, 2008 6:26 AM
Anonymous said...: In early Asian deals on Monday, the Swiss franc rose to fresh record high against the dollar after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly lowered its discount rate and Bear Stearns Cos. was forced to seek an emergency bailout.

The currency has also benefited from speculation the Swiss National Bank will cut borrowing costs this year less than the Federal Reserve.

The franc also hit new multi year against the sterling and 33-month high versus the euro. The Swiss currency gained against the yen after hitting a multi-week low.

Against the US dollar, the Swiss currency trended higher in early Asian deals, today. The franc hit an all time high of 0.9644 at about 10.25 pm Eastern Time, compared to Friday's North American close of 0.9986.

The Federal Reserve took two new steps Sunday to calm credit and equities markets.

In an extraordinary move, the Fed cut its primary discount rate by 25 basis points to 3.25 points.

The board also approved an increase in the maximum maturity of primary credit loans from 90 days from 30 days. The Fed board also voted unanimously to authorize the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to create a lending facility to improve the ability of primary dealers to provide financing to securitized markets. The facility becomes available at the open of business on Monday.

That move came after U.S. investment bank Bear Stearns was sold to JPMorgan Sunday evening as a final alternative to bankruptcy on liquidity issues.

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/
NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20080317%
5cACQRTT200803170046RTTRADERUSE
QUITY_0027.htm&&mypage=
newsheadlines&title=Swiss%20
Franc%20Sets%20Fresh%20Record%
20High%20Against%20US%20Dollar; March 17, 2008 6:29 AM
Anonymous said...: Start watching the TED SPREAD
many Hedge Funds managers are biting their nails now.

Last: 1.60 and it opened at 1.59,

The Fed's emergency moves is having a negative effect.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/
quote?ticker=.TEDSP%3AIND; March 17, 2008 6:43 AM
Anonymous said...: Banks are less willing to do business, judging by the so- called TED spread, the difference between what lenders and the government pay to borrow for three months.

The spread widened 1 basis point to 1.61 percentage point, approaching the most this year.

``Things aren't good,'' he said. ``You could get a huge move. It's going to be painful.'' Brenner was checking market levels and corresponding with clients from home at 10 p.m. in New York yesterday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/
news?pid=20601087&sid=
a7YjX5p7FRdg&refer=home; March 17, 2008 6:46 AM
Anonymous said...: Is the bad news about Bear Stearns, or who is next.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/17/
business/17bear.html?em&ex=
1205899200&en=9948af35c2edf32f&ei
=5087%0A

In a shocking deal reached on Sunday to save Bear Stearns, JPMorgan Chase agreed to pay a mere $2 a share to buy all of Bear — less than one-tenth the firm’s market price on Friday.

Despite the sale of Bear, investors fear that others in the industry, like Lehman Brothers, already reeling from losses on mortgage-related investments, could face further blows.

The cut-price deal for Bear Stearns reflects deep misgivings about its future and the enormous obligations that JPMorgan is assuming in guaranteeing the firm’s obligations. In an unusual move, the Fed will provide financing for the transaction, including support for as much as $30 billion of Bear Stearns’s “less-liquid assets.”

Wall Street was stunned by the news on Sunday night. “This is like waking up in summer with snow on the ground,” said Ron Geffner, a partner Sadis & Goldberg and a former enforcement lawyer for the Securities and Exchange Commission.

“The price is indicative that there were bigger problems at Bear than clients and the public realized.”; March 17, 2008 6:53 AM
Anonymous said...: US slump may affect Asia, HSBC chief Sandy Flockhart warns

Asia has weathered the financial turmoil embroiling the West with only small signs of distress, the chief executive of HSBC Asia believes, but a full-scale recession in the United States would have a knock-on effect on Asia, regardless of arguments that the region had “decoupled” from America.

Sandy Flockhart, who runs the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, said that HSBC, the largest foreign bank in Asia, was watching carefully for signs of contagion from turbulent markets in the US and Europe.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/
tol/business/industry_sectors/
banking_and_finance/
article3564041.ece; March 17, 2008 6:56 AM
Anonymous said...: Several high-profile hedge funds have moved to sever ties with Bear Stearns since Friday’s rescue, inflicting further damage on its once lucrative prime brokerage business, reports the FT.

Alongside Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, Bear was seen as one of the top three US prime brokerage outfits.

Funds including Davidson Kempner Partners and Fir Tree Partners are believed to have moved to cut links with Bear on Friday, adding to the exodus of funds since last summer when investor concerns first surfaced.

Prime brokerage and the mortgage business are seen as the most attractive parts of Bear for potential buyers but its once extensive roster of hedge fund clients is dwindling.; March 17, 2008 7:02 AM
Anonymous said...: In this month's Portfolio magazine, Michael Lewis wonders if the Black-Scholes formula -- the formula used to calculate and manage risk throughout the financial world, including determining the risk of trade positions and hedging strategies -- is flawed.

The Black-Scholes formula is an advanced mathematical formula generally credited with revolutionizing options pricing.

Its assumptions are the basis for short trades and options designed to protect a trader against losses, no matter how much the market falls.

However, as Lewis outlines, while the formula has been good, it is not perfect, as evidenced by the October 1987 stock market crash, when traders and institutions learned that even with Black-Scholes techniques deployed, when the market is crashing and no one is willing to buy, it's impossible to sell short.

The outcome? On "Black Monday," the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 508 points or 22.6% on October 19, 1987.

at some point in the near future the U.S. Congress will have to take a systematic, professional look at Black-Scholes and other formulas used to calculate risk.

More broadly, Congress must also investigate hedge funds, many of which undoubtedly use the Black-Scholes formula, and consider proposals to bring hedge funds and their lateral organizations into the regulated financial system.

That's because if the Black-Scholes critique is correct, the financial system contains more risk than hedge funds or other institutions assume, and given hedge funds' largely unregulated status, federal officials have little way to monitor their financial status.

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/
2008/03/04/another-wall-street-
worry-a-potentially-flawed-
risk-formula/; March 17, 2008 7:12 AM
Anonymous said...: Anyone else notice that the interest given out counter on ing direct's home page http://home.ingdirect.com/ has been removed.

My guess is that with the dropping interest rates on their products and people closing their accounts to get out of dollars, the counter was growing noticeably slower.; March 17, 2008 7:53 AM
Anonymous said...: You don't need to post this comment but you should right a quick post on Mr. Greg Swann's new tactic for web traffic. He had one of his writers put up a post on Ashley Dupree and it literally put his site in the number one spot of real estate blog sites on top blog sites. Of course it has nothing to do with real estate but he is gloating over this crap and black hat SEO.

Appropriate though for him to whore himself for traffic from another whore.; March 17, 2008 7:30 PM
Anonymous said...: Here is the pieces of evidence that definitely convinced me we're in for a major shitrain:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BORROW

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BOGNONBR

And yes, the source is the devil FED itself; March 17, 2008 9:41 PM
Anonymous said...: "SANTA FE REALTOR CALLS BOTTOM!

“People in some areas of Santa Fe, who bought their homes two or three years ago have lost 25 percent of their value, but now I think the values are pretty firm,’ Chernock said.”
--Bob Chernock, Santa Fe Realty Partners"

==================================
BULLSHIT.

1) Realtors have a vested interest in calling bottom. Plenty are giving up or hesitent to do so since the only requirement to their fiel d is a high school diploma.

2) Bear Stearns, just a few days ago, was trading at $70 a share. Yesterday it was sold for $2. Obviously the whole finance sector is in incredible peril as no one could bid higher. And even a high school educated realtor would know the $2 price doesn't even cover the cost of the Bear Stearns building.

WE ARE ON THE EDGE OF FREE FALL.; March 17, 2008 10:33 PM
Anonymous said...: Eating Ramen is real.....

The Washington Post. “The Perrywood subdivision in Upper Marlboro has long been synonymous with the pride and promise of Prince George’s County. Lately, though, this suburban idyll has been afflicted by the same economic forces that have plagued less prosperous communities.”

“Two of eight homeowners on Bar Geese are in foreclosure, according to RealtyTrac. In the past two years, 49 owners in the 1,100-home subdivision have either received notices threatening foreclosure, gone through auction proceedings or had their homes repossessed. Fourteen of those actions occurred in the past four months.”

“When Kimberly Mitchell first saw the townhouse on Whistling Duck Drive, she knew she had found her next home. Mitchell, a single mother, bought the house eight years ago for $200,000 and took out a fixed-rate mortgage with a 7 percent interest rate.”

“Mitchell left her corporate job in 2002 and started a day-care center in her home. The day-care business and finances were fine, she said, until she decided to refinance her home in 2005 and tap its equity to consolidate bills. Her loan officer steered her to an 8 percent adjustable-rate mortgage, assuring her that she could refinance later and return to a fixed-rate interest loan.”

“She quickly fell behind. She later learned that her property taxes of more than $3,000 a year were no longer a part of her mortgage payments. In October, her rate will increase to more than 10 percent.”

“Now she is stuck. ‘When you call a refinance company, they base it on your credit score,’ Mitchell said, adding that her credit is not good. ‘It’s a no-win situation.’”

“Fighting back tears, Mitchell described the stress she has endured. She said she and her son have resorted to eating noodles and peanut butter and jelly sandwiches several times a week to save money.”

“‘I don’t know the last time I got eight hours of straight sleep,’ she said. ‘I just feel robbed.’”

“Del. Aisha N. Braveboy, who represents Perrywood, said she understands how homeowners can get into mortgage trouble. ‘These are people who have great incomes, but their houses are priced at a point where they can’t afford them,’ she said.”

“Mitchell, who owes $260,000 on her mortgage, said she tried to refinance at a lower rate, but lenders said her credit was not good enough. So she put her house on the market. List price: $350,000.”; March 18, 2008 12:47 AM
Anonymous said...: Lehman Brothers Too Big To Fail? Don't Count On It

Wall Street is in a full meltdown. Bear Stearns is gone, so the markets are wondering who's next. The leading contender? Lehman Brothers.

Lehman's stock dropped 15% on Friday, and it's down by another third in pre-market trading. Some specific concerns:

* Like Bear Stearns, Lehman is relatively small and undiversified.

* Like Bear Stearns, Lehman just reiterated that its "liquidity position is strong."

* Like Bear Stearns, at least one of Lehman's trading partners is cutting it off: The WSJ reports that Southeast Asia's biggest bank, DBS Holdings, has asked traders not to enter new transactions with Lehman Brothers. "DBS has sent an internal e-mail saying it would not deal with Lehman Brothers from now on." [Update: DBS has since re-authorized some Lehman trades]

* Like Bear Stearns, Lehman gambles about $30 for every $1 it has.

* Like Bear Stearns, Lehman chose not to raise additional capital last fall.

* Like Bear Stearns, no one has any idea what's really on Lehman's balance sheet (including, probably, Lehman)

* Unlike Bear Stearns, says an analyst at ING, Lehman is NOT too big to fail, which means that the Fed might not be in such a panic to bail it out.

If Lehman is hellbent on following the Bear Stearns playbook, it will now trot Dick Fuld out onto CNBC to say that the bank is in great shape. And then, a day or two later, it will go bankrupt.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/
huffpost/20080317/cm_huffpost/091829; March 18, 2008 1:59 AM
Anonymous said...: Gulf currencies may drop dollar peg

Oil is priced in dollars on the world market, but many Gulf countries rely on government-subsidized imports priced in euros and other currencies that have been rising against the greenback. This relationship has pushed up the price of imports, a dilemma that could get worse as fears of a recession in the U.S. and related interest rate cuts continue to push down the dollar.

Raising their interest rates would have little effect on the Gulf states' inflation rates while their currencies remain pegged to the dollar.

Merrill Lynch predicted Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, suffering from inflation rates of 14 percent and 10 percent, would revalue their currencies relative to the dollar or de-peg.

As with Kuwait's decision, a move by Qatar or the UAE would likely anger their U.S. ally.

In a January interview with Kuwait's Aljarida daily, Steve Conlon, an economic officer at the American Embassy, said Washington was unhappy with Kuwait's currency move because it showed no confidence on the strength of the dollar.

Many smaller countries in the Gulf like Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE import almost everything but oil, leaving them more exposed.

Ibrahim al-Ibrahim, an economic adviser to Qatar's emir, told the Gulf Times in January that de-pegging the riyal from the dollar was one option his country was examining to battle inflation.

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/
financialnews/D8VF9ARG0.htm; March 18, 2008 2:10 AM
Anonymous said...: Will it ever end. Isn't there anyone moral left out there?

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/2008/03/17/2008-03-17_gov_paterson_admits_to_sex_with_other_wo.html; March 18, 2008 2:54 AM
Anonymous said...: Sub-prime mortgage king Roland E. Arnall, a politically connected billionaire overshadowed by investigations into alleged lending abuses at his Ameriquest Mortgage Co., died today.

Born on the eve of World War II to Eastern European Jews who had fled to Paris, Arnall spent his early childhood in a French village where his family pretended to be Roman Catholics.

He wasn't told he was Jewish until after the war, and his family soon relocated to Canada and then to the United States

Over the years, Arnall amassed huge interests in apartments and other businesses. But he was chiefly known as a pioneer of lending to high-risk borrowers, using databases to identify customers and set loan terms, and partnering with Wall Street firms that provided funding and bundled his loans into mortgage-backed bonds -- the business whose recent meltdown has shaken the global financial system.

His direct-to-consumer lending company, Ameriquest Mortgage, and sister companies including Argent Mortgage Co., which made loans through independent brokers, had become the nation's largest sub-prime lenders by the middle of this decade. Ameriquest advertised heavily on television, sent blimps soaring above stadiums bearing the company's name and Liberty Bell logo and sponsored a Super Bowl halftime show and a Rolling Stones tour.

But the company that called itself the Proud Sponsor of the American Dream was dogged by allegations from government authorities, community groups, angry customers and former employees who said Ameriquest ran "boiler rooms" of loan agents who socked borrowers with hidden fees and higher-than-promised interest rates while steering customers into loans they couldn't afford.

Ameriquest Mortgage shut down its lending last year, an early casualty of the sub-prime meltdown. Its loan servicing, or bill collection, arm was later sold to Citigroup Inc., along with the lending systems used by Argent, the affiliate that worked through brokers. The remains of Arnall's lending empire are "being wound down," a spokesman said.; March 18, 2008 2:59 AM
Anonymous said...: NORTHWEST HOME BUILDER CALLS BOTTOM!
DANGER OF SHORTAGE OF HOMES!!!!

“In the meantime, his company is cautiously moving forward on several developments. ‘The trend looks like the market is coming back,’ he said. ‘Everyone slowed production to almost nothing. We’re going to create a shortage if we’re not careful.’”
--Scott Morris, president of Legacy Homes Northwest; March 18, 2008 4:42 AM
Anonymous said...: Hong Kong may be forced to abandon its 24-year-old fixed exchange rate to the dollar, following countries around the world ditching pegs to the falling U.S. currency, said Nomura Holdings Inc.

Hong Kong's currency has slipped against 14 of the 17 major currencies in the past year, boosting import costs and accelerating inflation to the highest in nine years.

China ditched a dollar peg in 2005, Kuwait last May became the first Gulf Arab state to drop its currency's link to the dollar and Qatar is considering altering its foreign-exchange rate.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/
news?pid=20601087&sid=ac._
d9jlkYPs&refer=home; March 18, 2008 5:48 AM
Anonymous said...: 241 major U.S. lending operations have "imploded"

http://ml-implode.com/; March 18, 2008 5:53 AM
Anonymous said...: Maxed out this time

Right now, we are looking at the precipice of a total world financial collapse.

when the world credit bubble (pan financial bubble in markets and assets) unwinds, world governments will be forced to try and support the markets.

The prediction was that this will amount to monetization of failing markets. The alternative to monetization would be intolerable financial panics and market collapses, where people lose all their savings.

(Monetization is where central banks buy assets to shore them up, thus using the currency to support collapsing markets. This is in the process of happening now in the EU and the US.)

Basically, the only solution to massive unwinding of credit, theoretically, is to get borrowing and economic activity to start growing again. That way, world consumers would then start buying everything and, if the economies recover, then the present leverage out now can be carried forward.

But that is not happening, is it?

Why is it not happening? Why are lower interest rates failing to restart things? Because, this time, unlike 2001, people cannot borrow any more.

They have already borrowed all they can.

This time, cutting interest rates will not work to revive economies. The only other option is government spending, and or using currencies to stimulate things. Using currencies to keep things going will fail because the deleveraging worldwide is way too vast.

If cutting interest rates will not work to revive economies this time, then the deleveraging will continue relentlessly.

It is that simple.

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/
20080314/gold-says-central-banks
-fail-stop-world-deleveraging.htm; March 18, 2008 6:29 AM
Anonymous said...: Franklin Bank shares plunge amid inquiry

Company looks into possible irregularities with mortgages

News of an internal investigation that could affect Franklin Bank's 2007 financial results pushed shares down 21 percent.

Franklin shares fell Monday to $2.28 a share, down 59 cents from Friday's close.

The Houston bank said Friday that it would delay its 2007 audited annual report because an internal investigation isn't finished.

The investigation began in February, when Franklin's board of directors learned of possible accounting, disclosure and other issues related to residential mortgages and residential real estate that could have an undetermined effect on Franklin's 2007 financial statements, the company said in a written statement.

Franklin didn't return calls for comment on Monday.

http://www.chron.com/disp/
story.mpl/business/5627692.html; March 18, 2008 6:36 AM
Anonymous said...: National City shares drop about 43 percent

Shares of regional bank National City Corp. dropped sharply Monday, following the sudden weekend sale of Bear Stearns Co. investment bank.

Already trying to cope with exposure to troubled credit markets, shares of Cleveland-based National City dropped $5.63, or 43 percent, to $7.52. The stock shattered its previous one-year low of $12.64. Its high within the past year is $38.32.

On Thursday, Moody's downgraded National City's investment-grade senior rating based on concern National City is facing sizable losses in its home equity portfolio.

National City operates about 1,400 bank branches spread mostly across Ohio, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri and Pennsylvania.

http://www.springfieldnewssun.com/
news/content/gen/ap/OH_Regional_
Banks_Stock.html; March 18, 2008 6:41 AM
Anonymous said...: This is interesting:

"The Fed is widely expected to deliver one of the steepest interest rates since 1982 after the European market close on Tuesday as it struggles to shore up the U.S. economy against further damage from the turmoil in the credit markets."

http://www.reuters.com/
article/marketsNews/
idUKL2206503520080318?rpc=44; March 18, 2008 6:47 AM
Anonymous said...: Investment bank Goldman Sachs will announce asset writedowns of $3 billion when it posts earnings on Tuesday, Britain's Sunday Telegraph newspaper reported, without naming sources.

Goldman Sachs was not immediately available for comment.

Goldman will take a hit of around $1.6 billion in its leveraged loan business, $1.1 billion in connection with assets owned by its private equity arm and will have to writedown the value of its stake in Industrial & Commercial Bank of China , the story said.

http://malaysia.news.yahoo.com/
rtrs/20080316/tbs-goldman-
earnings-7318940.html; March 18, 2008 6:51 AM
Anonymous said...: Credit Default Swaps: The Next Crisis?

As Bear Stearns careened toward its eventual fire sale to JPMorgan Chase last weekend, the cost of protecting its debt, through an instrument called a credit default swap, began to rise rapidly as investors feared that Bear would not be good for the money it promised on its bonds.

Not familiar with credit default swaps? Well, we didn't know much about collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) either — until they began to undermine the economy.

Credit default swaps, once an obscure financial instrument for banks and bondholders, could soon become the eye of the credit hurricane.

The CDS market exploded over the past decade to more than $45 trillion in mid-2007, according to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association. This is roughly twice the size of the U.S. stock market

Credit default swaps are insurance-like contracts that promise to cover losses on certain securities in the event of a default.

They typically apply to municipal bonds, corporate debt and mortgage securities and are sold by banks, hedge funds and others.

The buyer of the credit default insurance pays premiums over a period of time in return for peace of mind, knowing that losses will be covered if a default happens.

It's supposed to work similarly to someone taking out home insurance to protect against losses from fire and theft.

Except that it doesn't. Banks and insurance companies are regulated; the credit swaps market is not.

As a result, contracts can be traded — or swapped — from investor to investor without anyone overseeing the trades to ensure the buyer has the resources to cover the losses if the security defaults.

The instruments can be bought and sold from both ends — the insured and the insurer.

All of this makes it tough for banks to value the insurance contracts and the securities on their books.

And it comes at a time when banks are already reeling from write-downs on mortgage-related securities.

"These are the same institutions that themselves have either directly or through subsidiaries invested in the subprime market," said Andrea Pincus, partner at Reed Smith LLP.

"They're suffering losses all over the place," and now they face potentially more losses from the CDS market.

http://www.time.com/time/business/
article/0,8599,1723152,00.html; March 18, 2008 6:56 AM
Anonymous said...: Another New Zealand fund set up by Australian hedge fund Absolute Capital Group, now in administration, is to be liquidated.

Absolute, half-owned by giant Dutch bank ABN Amro and half by staff, suffered a disastrous decline in revenues in the wake of the US sub-prime mortgage crisis and was put into liquidation last month.

The company had around $A400 million of assets under management. It said last year it was difficult to offload investments in collateralised debt obligations (CDOs).; March 18, 2008 7:00 AM
Anonymous said...: Cavuto capitulates & admits that Peter Schiff has been right "on alot of things"

http://tinyurl.com/2x8nom; March 18, 2008 11:38 AM
Anonymous said...: http://tinyurl.com/2jsehv

Sweet buy vs. rent calculator from NY Times.; March 18, 2008 6:00 PM
Anonymous said...: http://tinyurl.com/yu9xw7

Funny stuff on my local craigslist. How much you wanna bet its written by a realtor or FB?; March 18, 2008 6:09 PM
Unknown said...: 1.25 rate cut. You watch; March 18, 2008 6:13 PM
Unknown said...: To Anon 6:41 am

I used to have savings and checking accounts at National City when I was still in Pittsburgh. My branch was originally an Integra Bank branch before National City took it over. Ah, those were the days.; March 18, 2008 6:15 PM
edd browne said...: How did "The Blame Game"
get such a bad rap ?

I want to play, so
that "they" will pay.

The game ends when "they"
are cornered, and if they
have no money, you paint
them with tar, add feathers,
then help them out of town
on a rail.

Or you pay for their cell.; March 18, 2008 6:19 PM
edd browne said...: America has been busy in its schools for at least 40 years building a culture of ignorance
and complacency.

Now we know that work was finished.; March 18, 2008 6:54 PM
Anonymous said...: High school 'edumacation'....

SANTA FE REALTOR CALLS BOTTOM!; March 18, 2008 7:28 PM
Anonymous said...: Welcome to mob ochlocracy, would you like a rate cut at the expense of teh dollar? How about a housing credit paid for by another? We do have bank bailouts at taxpayer expense.; March 18, 2008 10:47 PM
EconomicDisconnect said...: From Bloomberg:

!For Immediate Release!
Federal Reserve Rejects Certain Assets for Use in the TSLF

The Federal Reserve has issued guidelines on the types and quality of assets that can be exchanged at the months end TSLF. To answer repeated queries from participating banks, the following is a list of non qualifying assets:

-Horses with horns glued to their head (not a true unicorn; true unicorns ARE accepted)
-Charmin toilet paper, unscented only
-Enron preffered stock certificates
-Pet Rocks
-Cabbage patch kids
-Ishtar special edition DVD's
-E.T. the Extraterrestrial Atari 2600 video game cartridges
-Free tanning Booth vouchers (we mean it Mr. Mozillo!)

Please contact your local Federal Reserve Branch bank for more information.; March 18, 2008 11:38 PM
Anonymous said...: Check out the Cleveland Fed's website, and compare core to noncore CPI. It's staggering. What's worse is, PPI is a leading indicator and it's way the hell up!

http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/inflation/US-Inflation/chartsdata/index.cfm?state1=1&state2=2&state3=4&state4=5&startDate=01/01/1990&endDate=03/11/2008&datatype=2&freq=quarterly; March 19, 2008 2:44 AM
Anonymous said...: area 51 said...

UTAH REALTOR CALLS BOTTOM!

“Michael Dinsmore, of Encore Mortgage, said while 2005 is long gone, both buyers and sellers are seeing more realistic prices for homes in Washington County. ‘In 2005, the value of properties was less than the selling price,’ Dinsmore said. ‘Now, the housing is where it’s supposed to be.’”

Utah is very special. Bad things don't happen here in Utah.; March 19, 2008 3:46 AM
Anonymous said...: SANTA ROSA REALTOR CALLS BOTTOM!

‘There’s a lot of buyers who are still holding out who may be missing the boat,’ Wareham said.”
-Ron Wareham, owner of Hurd Real Estate in Santa Rosa.; March 19, 2008 5:12 AM
Anonymous said...: "Check out the Cleveland Fed's website, and compare core to noncore CPI. "

Actually, the non-core is way understated. Anyone here believe it's only 3.9%?; March 19, 2008 6:05 AM
Anonymous said...: Video Blog of lying cheating realtors from youtube. Many Realtor Tricks.

http://youtube.com/profile_video_blog?user=russedwards777; March 19, 2008 8:06 AM
Unknown said...: If anyone wants to meet my hero Peter Schiff in person, he's holding free seminar in Newport Beach Monday 6-8pm.; March 19, 2008 6:30 PM
Anonymous said...: Hey Keith!

Thought you would love this article about how WaMu, Toll Brothers, KB Homes and Hovnanian are coming up with new yardsticks to make sure they get bonuses this next year.

Forget a guvmint job, I want a job running one of these companies. I couldn't possibly do any worse than their current bunch of bozos, even if I was tanked outta my mind on Wild Turkey.

http://tinyurl.com/22fj8y; March 19, 2008 6:39 PM
Anonymous said...: Open Question:
At what price per gallon of gasoline will your spending habits and life be changed?
How will they change?
-----------------------------------

$6 per gallon and I will likely replace one of our bought and paid for cars with a high MPG and we will use that car for every trip that our family of four takes. We will dust off the minivan only when we need the extra seats.

I will also seriously consider biking to work (3 miles one way) at $6 gallon gas. I would bike now if it wasn't for the idiot drivers I see every day. Bikes are always on the losing end of a car-bike collision.

even at $6 our changes will be because we feel that it is the right thing to do and not necessarily for financial reasons. at $10 per gallon financial will start dominating.; March 19, 2008 6:43 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/19/business/19arnall.html?ref=todayspaper

Roland Arnall, Mortgage Innovator, Dies at 68
hahahahahaha; March 19, 2008 6:45 PM
Anonymous said...: I can't believe the Bernanke 3/4 pt. crack rock is already wearing off. LOL.; March 19, 2008 7:48 PM
Anonymous said...: RE: TED SPREAD

Interesting. The chart is worth watching:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP%3AIND

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TED_spread

It's over 2% now... but not due to an increase in LIBOR. The 3month T-Bill is at .71%. That's more than 1 1/2 pts below the fed funds!

I have no idea what this means... other than yeild doesn't matter any more. People want treasuries at any almost price.; March 19, 2008 8:42 PM
Anonymous said...: OK... take a look at the 13 week (3 Month) T-Bill chart:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EIRX&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

It's not at .71... it's .65. (Interday it hit .5). Are there any economist here who knows what happens if it hits 0?

My guess is that hard currency becomes more valuable than bank assets????

Notice how the chart goes back to 1950, and doesn't look as bad as it does now. Scariest thing I've ever seen. I'm going to log off now.; March 19, 2008 9:02 PM
Anonymous said...: SANTA FE REALTOR CALLS BOTTOM!

That was already posted.

Keith, I'll chip in $50 for an exorcisim of 'area 51'.; March 20, 2008 12:32 AM
Anonymous said...: Obama's campaign is done -- guilt by association with his pastor. McCain will back his way into the presidency.; March 20, 2008 1:07 AM
Anonymous said...: Bank of England rate setters voted to keep interest rates on hold at 5.25 pct on March 6.

British inflation accelerated to a nine-month high in February.

British inflation has gone further above its target range due to soaring utility bills.

The Office for National Statistics said consumer prices rose 0.7 per cent last month, taking the annual rate to 2.5 per cent, its highest since last May.

Monetary Policy Committee majority agreed that CPI inflation is likely to rise 'quite sharply in the coming month' because higher oil and food prices will push inflation even higher in the coming months.

Bank of England has its hands tied over further rate cuts.

Growth in British manufacturers' orders unexpectedly accelerated in March as export demand picked up and firms are confident enough about the future to plan sharp price hikes, a survey indicated on Wednesday.

The Confederation of British Industry's monthly industrial trends survey's total order books balance rose to +7 from +3 in February.

The pick up in activity was driven by strong demand for British goods overseas.

The export orders balance rose to +3 in March from -8 in February, matching the 13-year high hit in November 2006.

"Manufacturing is not only holding up as the wider economy slows but growing on the back of strong exports," said Ian McCafferty, CBI chief economic advisor.; March 20, 2008 2:06 AM
Anonymous said...: The Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Mervyn King, said that a reduction so soon after lowering the rate by a quarter-point in February may signal the bank was focusing on growth at the expense of inflation, minutes of the March 6 decision published today in London showed. The dissenters said that the threat to economic expansion ``argued against delay.''

Inflation accelerated in February to the fastest pace in nine months and unemployment fell to the lowest in three decades. The threat of higher prices and few signs of a slowing economy have made U.K. policy makers more cautious than the U.S. Federal Reserve, which cut the benchmark interest rate yesterday by three quarters of a percentage point.

``The bank doesn't want to see a short-term spike in inflation get ingrained in the system,''; March 20, 2008 2:08 AM
Anonymous said...: Why Asia Can't Imitate Fed's Inflation Amnesia

The Fed may have developed inflation amnesia; the bond market has not. The yield on five-year Treasury Inflation- Protected Securities is signaling a steady rise in expectations of quicker longer-term price gains.

Harvard University Professor Jeffrey Frankel says the commodity prices are rallying even with all the concerns about the U.S. slipping into recession. The culprit is the low real cost of borrowing. That makes it cheaper to carry inventories.

If Frankel's hypothesis is correct, monetary-policy options for the Asia-Pacific region are very limited.

No matter what they do, the inflation genie won't go back into the bottle without a huge global deflationary shock, precisely the kind of U.S. recession that the Fed is so intent on preventing

Declining U.S. interest rates and a weakening dollar are compounding the challenge.; March 20, 2008 2:25 AM
Anonymous said...: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, which peg their currencies to the U.S. dollar, were forced to cut their benchmark rates by 0.75 percentage point yesterday, following the reduction by the same amount in the Fed's target for interbank rates.

Did the gulf states move caused crude oil to fall which forced many Hedge funds to cover short in a tight money market environment (TED Spread 2.03 today).

Without cash in reserve, were hedge funds forced to sell equities to cover their margin called.

Did short covering cause oil to plunge even more.

Crude oil currently trade at 101.55; March 20, 2008 2:26 AM
Anonymous said...: South Korean President Lee Myung-bak said on Thursday the falling won was threatening companies and pushing up domestic inflation, making a rare direct comment on the foreign exchange rate

The central bank's governor said early this month this year's consumer inflation would probably exceed its official forecast, already set at a 4-year high of 3.3 percent on average, due to higher-than-expected commodity prices.; March 20, 2008 2:35 AM
Anonymous said...: If commodities performance pushed first-quarter results well above Wall Street projections for Goldman Sachs, then how does plunging crude price effect the performance of Goldman Sachs's hedge funds.

Goldman Sachs down 5.18% today, and media will problably report that market was just taking profits from yesturday big gain.; March 20, 2008 2:43 AM
Anonymous said...: Margin calls coming on commodities

The Wall st gang who ran oil, food and and every other asset up has to sell commodities to raise cash. Once the spiral starts hitting all the funds and etf's its a massive downward spiral.

Its over folks, Wall St ushered in a worldwide depression. They are simply trying every trick in the book to delay it.

Housing will go back to 1998 to 1999 levels before leveling off. Stop paying your mtg and credit cards now, they cannot throw 10's of millions into debtors prison and congress will call for am indulgence for all those forced to the bankruptcy judge between 2005 and whenever.

Send your banker the keys and live fore free for 18 months and then move to Australia, its over here for many years.

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/
Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29
/Stocks_G/threadview?m=tm&bn=8089
&tid=118538&mid=118538&tof=13&frt=2; March 20, 2008 2:44 AM
Anonymous said...: The three-month London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for dollars rose for the first time in three weeks, indicating the Fed is struggling to instill confidence in money markets.

The difference between what the government and companies pay for three-months loans, known as the TED spread, increased 32 basis points to 1.98 percentage points, the biggest gain since Jan. 22, when the Fed made an emergency cut in borrowing costs.

Margin Calls

Bills have also gained as volatility in higher-yielding assets caused lenders to increase margin calls, or collateral requirements, on loans, according to Prudential's Tully.

``We've been so volatile lately that there's been a lot of need for collateral,'' he said. ``Treasury bills are the margin of choice.''

The TED spread measures the difference between the three month US Treasury Bill and the three month Eurodollar Future. Elevated readings in the indicator indicate an increased level of risk aversion in the market, as investors flock to short term T-bills which due to their credit quality and short time horizon are considered risk free, while Eurodollar futures are more representative of the credit quality of corporate borrowers.

When TED Spread rises, hedge funds lose, because their borrowing costs rise. Money gets tighter.

Remember when volatility rises, hedge funds do well, but this is only true, though, if we control for the TED spread and global share prices - the raw correlation between the Vix and hedge-funds' returns is strongly negative.; March 20, 2008 2:52 AM
Anonymous said...: Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy-making board meeting showed members were aware that financial market conditions had tightened substantially, in part due to the global credit crunch.

The board decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to a 12-year high of 7.25%, the fourth hike since August. It was the first back-to-back interest rate rise since the months of November and December in 2003.

The minutes, released today, said board members view ''the standard macroeconomic considerations as continuing to suggest the need for further tightening''.

''Overall, the economy still faced a period in which inflation could be uncomfortably high,'' the minutes said.; March 20, 2008 3:12 AM
Anonymous said...: Bank of France governor Christian Noyer said economic policy in the euro zone needs to take account of clear upside risks to the inflation outlook.

'There is a clear upward bias to risks regarding inflation, which has to be taken into account by economic policy,' he said in a speech.

And he said most of the burden of the job of controlling inflation lies with the European Central Bank. Noyer is a member of the ECB's rate-setting governing council.

'The current 'two pillar' approach of the governing council with a crosschecking between the economic and the monetary analysis has, I believe, permitted us to deliver a stance of monetary policy which has been totally appropriate to the situation of the euro zone,' he said.; March 20, 2008 3:13 AM
Anonymous said...: India, the world's biggest buyer of vegetable oil after China, plans to cut import duties on palm oil to ensure adequate domestic supplies and curb inflation.

The reduction will be announced shortly, a senior government official told reporters in New Delhi today. India's inflation is at a nine-month high.

India cut the tax on vegetable oils four times in 2007 and yesterday banned exports of all cooking fats for a year, joining China, Malaysia and Indonesia in securing food supplies. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government has curbed exports of rice, wheat and lentils, and banned futures trading in some commodities to slow inflation before general elections in May 2009.; March 20, 2008 3:15 AM
Anonymous said...: The FBI's criminal probe of the mortgage lending industry has grown to 17 firms, involves large companies, and could take years to conclude, bureau officials said on Tuesday in a Reuters interview.

The investigation now involves 17 firms, up from 16 previously acknowledged, the officials said.

"The corporate fraud cases are pretty large entities," said Neil Power, economic crimes unit chief of the Federal Bureau of Investigation's financial crimes section. "The majority I would think we're looking at years."

Power declined to comment when asked if the FBI was looking into the collapse of Bear Stearns, which led to an emergency sale to JPMorgan Chase last weekend. However, he said, "common sense would indicate that we would look at something that big."

The hundreds of FBI agents taking part in the probe are looking at issues including all phases of the process of securitizing loans, insider trading and whether firms properly disclosed the value of their assets.

Corporate employees ranging from senior executives to lower-level management were under scrutiny, an official said.

The officials described widespread opportunities for fraud in the industry, which can all be traced back to human greed, and to lax documentation in loan applications, which allowed for loans based on false values or income.

"The problem is that banks weren't doing their due diligence," Power said.

http://www.newsradio610.com/
cc-common/news/sections/
newsarticle.html; March 20, 2008 5:44 AM
Anonymous said...: Ultimately who will pay the $30 billion.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/17/
news/companies/boyd_bear.
fortune/index.htm

The Fed's agreement to buy up to $30 billion in troubled Bear Stearns mortgage bonds may have saved JPMorgan Chase from a big writedown, according to senior executives involved in the transaction.

Ultimately, it enabled a deal to be done even as alternatives rapidly dried up.; March 20, 2008 5:55 AM
Anonymous said...: Hedge fund money streaked out of commodities Wednesday like a red-hot meteor

Debris from the flameout came from the hard and the soft commodities, all victims of the jittery market conditions that led big speculators to take profits and retreat to reassess their positions. Gold and copper were down sharply, and most grains and oil-seeds contracts dropped their daily exchange-imposed trading limits.

Analysts said the funds were nervous about reduced credit lines from banks, a shaky economy and technical weakness in many markets. Those fears combined to force funds to reduce their risk exposure in the market, analysts said.

The speed and intensity of the sell-off were unsettling to many market participants, as waves of selling pushed prices through technical support points, creating more waves of selling.

"The funds are puking," said Frank Lesh, a broker and futures analyst with Future Path Trading. "They're coming out of all these commodities.

http://www.startribune.com/
business/16839316.html; March 20, 2008 6:06 AM
Anonymous said...: Will there be more margin call tomorrow.

http://www.wavy.com/
Global/story.asp?S=8041514

Plunging commodities prices led to weakness in energy and basic materials stocks, giving the key averages losses of more than 2%.

A day after gaining 420 points, the Dow lost 293 to 12,099.; March 20, 2008 6:09 AM
Anonymous said...: Commodities are also vulnerable to the same worries affecting the rest of Wall Street, where on Wednesday the Dow Jones industrial average plunged almost 300 points, erasing more than two-thirds of Tuesday’s steep gains.

Moreover, the biggest speculators and lenders in the commodities markets are some of the same giant hedge funds, commercial banks and brokerage houses that are caught in the stormy weather of the equity, housing and credit markets.

As in those markets, an evaporation of credit could force some large investors — especially hedge funds speculating with lots of borrowed money — to sell off their holdings, creating price swings that could affect a host of marketplace prices and wipe out small investors in just a few moments of trading.

“Right now is a very scary time” for commodity market regulators, said Michael Riess, a director of the International Precious Metals Institute, a consultant to commodities investors for more than 30 years.

“It’s not a question of overregulating or underregulating. It’s a question of just being swamped by volume, volatility and a dramatic shift toward speculative interests.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/20/
business/20commodity.html?ref=
business; March 20, 2008 6:19 AM
Anonymous said...: TED Spread currently 2.03

http://www.bloomberg.com/
apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND; March 20, 2008 6:26 AM
Anonymous said...: areas that had an extreme bubble are starting to find a bottom. try calling an "agent" in modesto and you will find that many of them have 15+ homes pending. modesto homes that rent for $1350 are selling for 185-200k. put 20% down are you are pretty close to breaking even. when this happens to the rest of the market, the worst will be over.; March 20, 2008 7:17 AM
Anonymous said...: So you think you're cool, hot shit, you think you're it? With the little money you had you bought some Krugerrands who are raping you in the ass now. You f*cking dipshits crack me up. You know nothing about economics, yet you write incomprehensible drivel comments on this blog which is obviously owned by a 15 year old high school dropout. You hear that sucking sound dumb-shit, that’s the market siphoning off what little is left of your f*cking cash. I just love it when imbecile shit-hole renters attempt gambling in the market, they always get kicked in the nuts. Everyone with a brain knows that renting is one step above living under the bridge. Have fun on your way down stupid ass morons!; March 20, 2008 12:58 PM
edd browne said...: ...enable compliments...
Keith does not have my complete
approval(not that he cares), but one of several things I respect
is the freedom of speech in his
own playground.

Sometimes this interferes with
productive discussion, and there
are a few racist, jingoist
comments I wish he would edit;
but he has commendable tolerance
for those thoughts he does not share. ...disable compliments...

Back Tibet; free someday ?
Back Buddhism; free someday ?.
Tell China: Olympics might fail.
Tell Walmart: Vive Kmart !; March 20, 2008 2:00 PM
Anonymous said...: Silver, meet toilet. NEWSFLASH: The US government and the wall street fat cats have more precious metal than you do.; March 20, 2008 6:11 PM
Anonymous said...: For those idiots who seem to be jumping up and down just coz a few speculators are making money on Wall Street, here's something interesting for you:

http://tinyurl.com/3bemtw

"No one is really paying much attention to it yet, but in a conference call update this morning Fitch Ratings said it expects subprime mortgage losses to increase and that things are not, in fact, getting better. They are accelerating."

I hope you'll read the entire 5 points, if you have the attention span needed for that (which I honestly doubt).

I find it telling and fun to read, especially when he talks about the fact that even Bernanke is affected by the housing bubble! This may explain why he's eager to bail out all those gamblers out there.
MAX; March 20, 2008 6:22 PM
Anonymous said...: I've been tracking prices of my condo I sold fall 04 in gang infested Van Nuys, CA 91406. I bought in 99 for 60K and sold in 04 for 215K after two days on the market. Prices peaked in fall 06 at 330K. Lowest asking price is now 150K. Check it out at realtor.com 8020 Langdon Ave. 91406; March 20, 2008 6:47 PM
Anonymous said...: OK... I've done a bit of reading, and I'm not as freaked out with the 13-week T-bill rates.

What happens when the T-Bill hits 0%... Liquidity Trap: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquidity_trap. (And here: http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/trioshrt.html)

We're clealy not there... yet. But there is real danger that the Fed has used up their ammo.

At this point, I think that the focus will be less on monetary policy and more about real value and deflation:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation_%28economics%29

I was confused on how we could have a shortage of money when the Fed is just dumping money in the market. It's the scale of deleverging. It's removing more money than the Fed could ever add. Caryle was ~ 32::1. I heard Bear was > 40::1. Now CIT?

Keith, I conceed... cash is king.; March 20, 2008 7:59 PM
Anonymous said...: Alert!

Former Mortgage Brokers have found a new occupation: Counseling the same victims they had lured into taking money loads they couldn't handle on how to avoid foreclosure (and keep the lender afloat and happy!!).

http://tinyurl.com/3bh7bu

I just can't believe how lowly those crooks are and how gullible the sheeple can be.

MAX; March 20, 2008 11:14 PM
Anonymous said...: FANTASTIC VIDEO!!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/23728596; March 21, 2008 12:41 AM
Anonymous said...: Keith,

My husband and I sometimes wonder why are we being prudent and frugal as we prepare and save for our first home when I read about another foreclosure bailout for homebuyers who should've known better. Grrrh...it makes me angry. (Hubby's saying..."honey, calm down.")

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/18/ real_estate/loan_
modification_hurdle/index.htm

The foreclosure bailout that almost blew up

By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
March 20, 2008: 3:39 PM EDT

Gail Burks, who counsels troubled Las Vegas homeowners, says she encounters endless obstacles as she tries to get people the help they need.

One couple's story
Take the case of one Las Vegas couple, who fell behind on their payments and faced foreclosure. For nearly two months Burks worked with them, and their lenders, to permanently lower their payments to affordable levels.

That task was challenging because it involved two different loans; the couple used a second mortgage, also called a piggy-back loan, to avoid having to come up with a down payment. Burks wanted to combine the two into a single loan and negotiate an interest rate reduction.

The primary loan, issued in 2005, was an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) on a home purchase of $303,200. After two years, payments adjusted up from $1,667 to nearly $2,200 a month. The second loan was an adjustable rate home equity line of credit for about $61,000.

The couple could afford the original payments on the loans, but they told Burks that they didn't realize that their primary mortgage came with an adjustable rate that would reset higher, although they were aware that their home equity line was adjustable.

The work-out she put together is a very good deal for the couple. The entire debt will be in a fixed-rate loan at 3.75% for five years. After that, Burks will work with them to refinance into a long-term, fixed-rate loan. In addition Burks succeeded in getting all fees and penalties waived.; March 21, 2008 2:13 AM
Anonymous said...: The morgage industry is now saying they are going to start blackballing zipcodes. This is just going to get worse.

9600 zip codes blackballed -
http://www.escapesomewhere.com/austinblog/2008/03/mortgage_industry_blackballs_9.html; March 21, 2008 3:56 AM
Tyrone said...: California is Blackballed! LOL

Leery Lenders Demand More From Borrowers
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Just when consumers and the U.S. economy need banks to lend more freely, the mortgage industry is making it harder to borrow -- even for those with good credit.

Mortgage insurers, whose backing is required for borrowers who can't afford the traditional 20 percent down payment on a home, have already flagged nearly a quarter of the nation's ZIP codes where they refuse to insure some home loans.

That encompasses a wide variety of neighborhoods: McMansions in Scottsdale, Ariz.; luxury Miami condos; 1960 ranch houses in Flint, Mich.; and early 20th century kit homes in Metuchen, N.J.

The entire states of California, Florida, Arizona, Michigan, Ohio and Nevada -- which have seen the highest foreclosure rates and the worst price declines -- are blackballed on some mortgage insurers' lists.; March 21, 2008 5:35 AM
Anonymous said...: Jefferson County, Alabama probably wishes it never heard of an interest rate swap.

The Wall Street Journal reports the county -- home to Birmingham -- has refused to post the $200 million its lenders asked for after losses on its portfolio of interest rate swaps.

These derivative contracts enable investors to hedge exposure from interest rate spikes while reducing borrowing costs.

Turmoil in the fixed income markets has hammered the value of the contracts, and the county received what amounts to a margin call on its $5.4 billion swap portfolio. Moody's (MCO) notes Jefferson County has $3.2 billion in debt, and is the only county it's aware of with more interest rate swaps than outstanding bonds.

Officials claim the county has no plans to declare bankruptcy, but rating agencies have already started downgrading its debt.

Jefferson County told lenders Bear Stearns, Bank of America, JP Morgan and Lehman Brothers it couldn't post the additional collateral without defaulting on its bond payment obligations.

The downgrading of the county's bond insurer, Financial Guarantee Insurance Company, has also pushed its financing costs as high as 10%, up from previous levels of 3% to 4%.

http://www.minyanville.com/
articles/index.php?a=16183; March 21, 2008 6:17 AM
Anonymous said...: The two founders of a Bay Area company that prosecutors say victimized thousands of people in a mortgage scheme will be spending a long time behind bars.

Kurt Johnson of Sunnyvale was sentenced Tuesday to 25 years in prison, while Dale Heineman of Union City was sentenced to nearly 22 years after both were convicted of multiple counts of fraud and conspiracy to commit fraud.

Prosecutors say as many as 3,500 homeowners and at least 20 lenders in 35 states were victimized.

A hearing for to determine how much restitution the two men will have to pay is scheduled for June.; March 21, 2008 6:25 AM
Anonymous said...: Seven firms closed in Calif. mortgage fraud probe

Investigator Eric Bremner found evidence in a shredder at Olympic Escrow that he says confirmed borrowers' complaints that they had never signed the mortgage documents that pushed them into a financial hell.

Bremner found pieces of documents that had been cut to remove signatures and notary seals. Loan applications, escrow agreements and other documents had signatures that had been taped on, he said.

"That validated the statements that the victims had been making over and over again: That they did not recall signing these documents and they did not agree to the terms of the loans they were given," says Bremner, a senior investigator in the real estate fraud unit of the San Bernardino County district attorney's office.

The discovery was the turning point in an investigation that led to this week's closure of seven brokerage and escrow companies in an ongoing campaign against predatory lenders.

A single family is suspected of leading an operation that processed thousands of home loans in California during the past several years in a widespread refinancing scam.; March 21, 2008 6:29 AM
Anonymous said...: A Nation of Enrons

You might think we'd learned our lessons about fantasy accounting after Enron, but you would be wrong.

Things actually got worse. The infection moved to the comfy-sounding "homeownership" market.

Against a star-spangled, feel-good backdrop touting the "American Dream," our recent mark-to-model mania tripped up a lot more than one big company.

In fact, it swept through the entire banking world. (Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) is not the first to choke on lousy, poorly modeled mortgage-backed securities "income," and I'll eat a Miami condo if it's the last.)

But more dangerous yet was the way this mania also infected millions of aspiring real-estate moguls.

The most widespread mark-to-model fantasies were actually committed not by some easy-to-blame Wall Street suit, but by Fred and Ethel down the street.

It was flawed models (and the habit of booking earnings on these models) that enabled financial companies to concoct the elaborate securities that funded the bubble.

And yes, the bank CEOs who paid themselves handsome bonuses ahead of the hurricane deserve a public flogging.

But they weren't the only ones making out like bandits. While Wall Street was booking fantasy profits on bad assumptions about real estate, Fred and Ethel down the street were operating under their own mark-to-model dreams.

You might think we'd learned our lessons about fantasy accounting after Enron, but you would be wrong.

Things actually got worse.

The infection moved to the comfy-sounding "homeownership" market.

Against a star-spangled, feel-good backdrop touting the "American Dream," our recent mark-to-model mania tripped up a lot more than one big company.

In fact, it swept through the entire banking world. (Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) is not the first to choke on lousy, poorly modeled mortgage-backed securities "income," and I'll eat a Miami condo if it's the last.)

But more dangerous yet was the way this mania also infected millions of aspiring real-estate moguls. The most widespread mark-to-model fantasies were actually committed not by some easy-to-blame Wall Street suit, but by Fred and Ethel down the street.

It was flawed models (and the habit of booking earnings on these models) that enabled financial companies to concoct the elaborate securities that funded the bubble.

And yes, the bank CEOs who paid themselves handsome bonuses ahead of the hurricane deserve a public flogging.

But they weren't the only ones making out like bandits. While Wall Street was booking fantasy profits on bad assumptions about real estate, Fred and Ethel down the street were operating under their own mark-to-model dreams.

http://www.fool.com/investing/
small-cap/2008/03/20/
a-nation-of-enrons.aspx; March 21, 2008 6:38 AM
Anonymous said...: Brother, can you spare 9,480,000,000 dimes? Thornburg Mortgage is looking for nearly $1 billion to stay in business.

On Wednesday, shares of Thornburg dropped 49.7%, or $1.48, to close at $1.50, after the mortgage company announced it needed to raise a minimum of $948 million in new capital over the next week in order to alter terms of reverse repurchase agreements with five lenders.

Essentially, the company is trying to keep its creditors at bay and keep itself out of bankruptcy.

The capital, to be raised via a convertible bond issue, would lead to investors in those securities owning 27% of the company, a serious level of dilution for existing shareholders who have seen most of their holdings evaporate.

Last year, the stock traded above $27 before the subprime mortgage crisis began affecting it.

http://www.forbes.com/2008/03/19/
thornburg-mortgage-capital-markets
-equity-cx_cg_0319markets15.html; March 21, 2008 6:40 AM
Anonymous said...: National City, based in Cleveland, has a large Western Pennsylvania presence with 220 branches. It has been battered by the subprime mortgage mess. Things apparently became so bad by the end of last week, National City was looking for a buyer to survive.

But when its major prospective white knight, JPMorgan Chase & Co., rode to the rescue of the shattered Bear Stearns & Cos. investment bank, National City's subsumption apparently died. On Monday, National City's stock suffered its worst loss in 24 years, diving by 43 percent. And that on top of an already battered share price.

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/
.site/news/Stock%20News/1231488/; March 21, 2008 6:45 AM
Anonymous said...: Market Deleveraging Smacks Gold

Much of the selling in gold was due to a giant macro hedge fund that had to sell positions in order to meet investor redemptions.

John Meriwether, who if you remember was the guy who set up the Long-Term Capital hedge fund that blew up in 1998, apparently faced huge redemptions yesterday in a group of billion dollar hedge funds.

His Relative Value Opportunity fund suffered a 24% loss in its fixed income fund. He also has a billion dollar macro hedge fund down around 9% this year.

It is likely that he had to sell gold and commodity positions in this fund to meet redemptions or get off margin.

That wasn't the only news that swamped the market yesterday.

Thornburg Mortgage revealed that it has to raise at least $948 million in the next week in order to stay in business.

http://www.howestreet.com/
articles/index.php?article_id=6010; March 21, 2008 6:53 AM
Anonymous said...: Rogue traders force Credit Suisse into £1.4bn writedown

The traders concerned worked in Credit Suisse's Canary Wharf office, trading asset-backed securities in the investment bank's collateralised debt obligations (CDO) business.

The securities are classed as "level two assets", where the lack of a liquid market means there is no minute-by-minute or daily price visible to all investors.

Instead, traders have some discretion to calculate the value of the assets for themselves each day, using data and computer models set down by the bank.

Credit Suisse said last month it had suspended a handful of traders after discovering their holdings had been mispriced.

The investment bank initially believed the traders had made mistakes, but yesterday revealed it had uncovered evidence that a handful of traders had deliberately used out-of-date data when calculating the value of their holdings in order to artificially inflate the apparent value of their positions.

The bank also admitted that monthly reviews of pricing – the system through which it is supposed to check on traders' activities – had not taken place in the business affected.

As a result, the problem was picked up more much slowly than it should have been.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/
business/news/rogue-traders-force-
credit-suisse-into-16314bn-
writedown-799128.html; March 21, 2008 6:57 AM
Anonymous said...: We have all heard of "mark to market" accounting. In short, you value an asset based on its market value.

But, what if there is no market? This is what is happening with the current situation. Banks and lenders are basing values of assets, not on the performance of them, but on the "perceived value".

This is causing huge write-downs of the assets, that then forces the institutions to raise capital.

How? A forced selling of these performing assets. Since everyone else is on the same boat, no one wants to buy them. If there are no buyers, there is no market.

It is not a question of performance but one of complexity. How can you value a CDO that you cannot understand the revenue stream from?

When in doubt, in times like this, investors flee. Thus we have the current environment. So, what happens? Intense pain followed by a surge in the opposite direction. Think of it this way.

You live in a home and have a job. The value of your home has fallen and thus your "net worth" along with it.

Has this "net worth" decline had any real effect on your day to day life? Is your EPS (income) affected by it? No. But, if you are a bank, you have to account for the decline in your home as a "loss" in your EPS.

Now, assuming you are the bank, because the value of your home has fallen, and perhaps you have a home equity loan on it, you have a problem.

The holder of your home equity loan tells you that you have to liquidate assets in order to keep a "ratio" of assets to liabilities that they want.

Now you are in trouble. You have to sell something and fast to raise money or reduce debt. It is a fire sale.

Since you cannot sell more "shares" of yourself (like the bank can) to raise cash, you have to sell the home to the first bidder to reduce debt and raise cash.

The problem is, everyone looking at the home knows you have to do this. How low are those offers going to be below the fair value of the home?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/
69050-mark-to-no-market?; March 21, 2008 7:02 AM
Anonymous said...: Commodities tumble as investors cash out

The decline was the biggest ever as measured by the Reuters/Jefferies CRB commodities index .CRB since its inception 50 years ago. The index, which includes crude oil, gold, wheat, cattle and corn, fell 8.4 percent on the day.

MF Global analyst Edward Meir said in a note to clients.

"In addition, the recent selloff may also be attributable to the fact that we are seeing a massive round of deleveraging taking place across many markets," he added.

He said hedge funds could be lightening up on commodities to support positions that "may be under water," or else they may be raising cash to meet more stringent lending requirements imposed on them by their banks.

Investors have been tapping the bullion market for cash to cover losses in other financial markets.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/
businessNews/idUKSP30456420080321; March 21, 2008 7:08 AM
Anonymous said...: UK hedge fund loses 28% on Japanese bond bet

Endeavour Capital, a $3bn London hedge fund lost more than a quarter of its value earlier this week because of extreme volatility in Japanese bonds.

The Relative Value Opportunity fund was damaged as bond prices fell amid the selling and margin calls.

The $2.88 billion Endeavour Fund sold "substantially all'' of its Japanese government debt this week, Chief Executive Officer Paul Matthews said today in an interview.

Endeavour Capital pursues a relative-value strategy, seeking to profit from discrepancies in the prices of various fixed-income securities and currencies.

The fund lost money as the spread between yields on Japanese 7- and 20- year bonds widened to 1.44 percentage points on March 17, the most in almost nine years.

“You've had a confluence of events that has led to extreme volatility and vast moves in Japanese government debt," said Matthews, 47, a former head of global fixed-income arbitrage at Salomon Smith Barney.

“The relative moves we've seen in Japan are not in the realm of anything we've ever seen for Japanese government bonds.”

Hedge fund investors said other well-known funds lost 5% and 20%, although Endeavour was believed to be the worst affected.

http://www.trustnet.com/general/
news/display-story.aspx; March 21, 2008 7:21 AM
Anonymous said...: The Fed start to aggressively cut rate during February, so why has Refinance activities been going down since the aggressive cut.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/
63150-what-the-housing-apocalypse
-prophets-aren-t-revealing

What the Housing “Apocalypticists” Aren’t Telling You

No “doom prophet” has mentioned the Mortgage Bankers Association weekly mortgage applications survey in the deluge of economic fear-mongering.

Mortgage Bankers Association weekly mortgage applications survey

The survey compiles data on about 50% of US mortgage applications submitted the previous week. The “survey contains 15 indices covering application activity for fixed rate, adjustable rate, conventional and government loans for home purchases and refinances. A new report is posted every Wednesday with the previous week’s market activity."

Thus, the MBA survey is a representative data sample, publicly reported primarily as indices. My interest is to highlight the shift in those indexes as representative of mortgage application behavior by consumers, and indirectly, by lenders.

This is not NAR hype material. The survey is a contrarian gold mine to the current housing mantra

Refinance Index since the beginning of the year.

Mar 14, 2008___2335
Mar 07, 2008___2448.2
Feb 29, 2008___2569
Feb 22, 2008___2458.9
Feb 15, 2008___3533.8
Feb 08, 2008___4901.5
Feb 01, 2008___5054
Jan 25, 2008___5103.6
Jan 18, 2008___4178.2
Jan 11, 2008___3575.5
Jan 04, 2008___2494.2; March 21, 2008 8:05 AM
Anonymous said...: Alice in Wonderland
by Peter Schiff

How do you know when you're through the looking glass? A fairly good indication is when the price of gold, which normally moves up in response to monetary easing, instead plummets in reaction to one of the largest rate cuts in Fed history.

Apparently, yesterday's 6% drop in gold resulted from the "hawkishness" shown by the Fed in only cutting rates by 75 basis points, rather than the 100 points that many had expected.

It is a testament to how low the bar has been set that the Fed can slash rates in the face of a collapsing dollar and soaring commodity prices and still be viewed as hawkish on inflation. Is it just me, or is Ben Bernanke morphing into the Mad Hatter?

Despite the mildly tough language in its statement, it should be clear to all that the Fed sees inflation as the only politically acceptable "solution" to the problems it created.

The conclusion that a 75 point cut shows concern about inflation is half right.

The Fed is concerned, but only to the extent that the markets stay focused on bogus CPI numbers and fail to notice severe price increases throughout the economy.

The fact is that inflation will be with us for some time, and the knee jerk drop in gold is yet another excellent buying opportunity.

http://www.safehaven.com/
article-9740.htm; March 21, 2008 5:49 PM
Anonymous said...: In normal economical cycle commodity move up due to US Federal Reserve weak monitory policy.

This in turn drives the US Dollar weaker which should help US Export.

But what happens when other countries can not afford to buy US export, because they are going through a down turn.

Isn't that bad for the stocks market as companies who depends on revenue from export can no longer count on it.

http://www.canada.com/topics/
news/story.html?id=f25938d9-
6321-43c8-8244-362966841ff4&k=2605

Slump in commodity prices makes riding out U.S. recession tougher

This week's sudden and unexpected plunge in commodity prices, which continued Thursday, threatens to rob the Canadian economy of the fuel needed to power it through a U.S. recession, a senior analyst with a major investment bank is warning.

Adding to the rapidly darkening mood hanging over the North American economy were reports that a barometer of the short-term outlook for the Canadian economy weakened more than expected last month, and that jobless claims south of the border last week rose more than anticipated.

"Sharp across-the board declines in global commodity prices this week are beginning to reverse the sharp run-up since the beginning of the year, a development which could turn an unexpected tailwind for the Canadian economy in the first quarter of 2008 into a headwind in the second quarter," said Ted Carmichael, economist with JP Morgan Canada.

"Commodity prices are the main driver of Canada's terms of trade, and the sharp run-up in prices through mid-March was providing a large boost to Canadian export income and acting as an important offset to the slowdown in U.S. housing and industrial activity," he noted. "A sharp correction in commodity prices would obviously remove this offset and add to the forces slowing the Canadian economy."

Even before the retreat in commodity prices, analysts were beginning to warn that the Canadian economy would be pushed to the brink of recession, and Ontario and possibly Quebec into one, by what many now say is already a recession in the U.S.; March 21, 2008 6:14 PM
Anonymous said...: .
COLUMBUS, OHIO - As seen on T.V., Fox 28 News reported tonight that the private mortgage PMI companies have black balled many zip codes including the ENTIRE STATE OF OHIO.

Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland was interviewed and said that Ohio needs Federal Help NOW!

The T.V. news reporters said that Ohioains must now put down 20% to obtain a conventional mortgage in Ohio.; March 22, 2008 3:13 AM
Anonymous said...: Keith;

There's an unfolding story that needs your attention. NPR reported that US troops in Baghdad are fishing and feeding on fish taken from Saddam's ponds, although they know that Saddam's fish may have been eating human flesh!

But wait! It's not over yet!!
THE SCARY THING is this followup story from:

http://tinyurl.com/3xounv

In here you will find out how gullible and reckless those troops/fishermen really are and what kind of trouble they may have gotten themselves into.

GREAT TOPIC FOR DISCUSSION ON YOUR BLOG!!

Thanx

MAX; March 22, 2008 3:01 PM
deodand said...: Great story on Mish today that talks about an evil home-debtor who was foreclosed on but still tried to bully and steal rent from his former tenants:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/03/renters-beware.html

If true, Bobbie Dust should be arrested and charged with attempted larceny. He should be banned from the real estate industry for life.; March 22, 2008 6:43 PM
Anonymous said...: Topic for discussion:

What is the greater impact on the current financial crisis, foreclosures on Joe-Sixpack's $300,000 sh*tshack, or bank foreclosures on hundreds of failed condo projects, $50B so far?; March 22, 2008 6:47 PM
Anonymous said...: We have all heard of "mark to market" accounting. In short, you value an asset based on its market value.

But, what if there is no market? This is what is happening with the current situation. Banks and lenders are basing values of assets, not on the performance of them, but on the "perceived value".

Then their value is worth ZERO until someone buys them at some price.; March 22, 2008 8:36 PM
Anonymous said...: From Bloomberg:

Big Ben's Capitol Hill house value down to 2004 levels; March 22, 2008 8:38 PM
Anonymous said...: “Watching the housing/mortgage/financial crisis unfold, I keep thinking about the joke about the difference between neurotics and psychotics. The former builds castles in the sky and the latter moves into them.”

“Until the bubble burst, a lot of folks were living in these castles in the air, made possible by bountiful and creative mortgage financing. Now, we’re being reminded that there is indeed something called reality from which many became detached.”

“Peter Thiel, president of a global hedge fund, writing about market bubbles in the latest Policy Review journal of the Hoover Institution, says, ‘U.S. real estate prices in 2005 were more distorted than in 1929, 1979, or 1989, or at any other time in history.’”

“To go back to the psychotic living in the castle in the sky, the task today must be to restore a sense of reality to the patient rather than moving in with him.”

“Proposals such as allowing bankruptcy judges to rewrite mortgage terms contributes to chaotic fundamentals, massive government intervention, whether it be through moratoriums on foreclosures and interest rate freezes, or government takeovers and refinancing of loans creates new distortions.”

“Our resilient and prosperous free society is built on law and personal responsibility. Pain is a normal part of life. It tells us something is wrong. What is critical is that we get the right message about the nature of the problem.”; March 23, 2008 1:12 AM
Anonymous said...: Keith,

Great picture of Greenspan in this NYT article:

http://tinyurl.com/2pdg6h; March 23, 2008 2:16 AM
W.C. Varones said...: California munis cratering -- short-term conservative Schwab fund gets crushed.; March 23, 2008 5:42 PM
Anonymous said...: Severe dislocation in $IRX
"Generational buy" on financials?!

Once again, back up the fucking truck and buy your SPY, XLF, and IB puts.

VIX ain't gonna be this low for long.; March 23, 2008 8:58 PM
Anonymous said...: RamenRamenRamenRamen

http://www.wisebread.com/for-the-love-of-ramen-an-interview-with-ed-from-ramenramenramen-net; March 23, 2008 11:23 PM
Anonymous said...: Abundant liquidity, triggered by sharply higher oil revenues, and the effect of currencies pegged to a weakening dollar are fueling inflation in the Gulf region, economists say.

And the situation is so serious that Gulf business leaders will meet in Bahrain on Monday to get advice from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Union on how to tackle the problem.

"The growth of money supply in Gulf countries has in some cases exceeded 20 percent," leading Bahraini economist Ahmed al-Yusha told AFP this week. "This reflects in (higher) demand, and consequently affects prices."

The IMF expects overall GCC inflation to rise to six percent in 2008, with consumer prices in some member states rising at much higher rates.

The UAE and Qatar registered 9.3 percent and 11.8 percent, respectively, in 2006. Most final inflation figures for 2007 have not been released, but inflation is estimated to have hit 11 percent in the UAE and 12 percent in Qatar.

Saudi Arabia, which traditionally had a fairly low inflation rate, reported a 4.1 percent rise in its consumer price index in 2007.

The increase in the cost of goods that are imported from non-dollar zones is also blamed.

A December study by the Federation of GCC Chambers blamed inflation mainly on the huge money supply and the peg of all GCC currencies -- except the Kuwaiti dinar -- to the deteriorating dollar.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/
20080323/wl_mideast_afp/
gulfinflationconference_
080323195946; March 24, 2008 2:27 AM
Leon said...: People are happily jumping on the debt spiral by taking out short-term payday loans, with effective interest rates in the hundreds of percent:

http://tinyurl.com/yoveav

Instead of fixing the problem, they make it go away for another fortnight, when it will have become even worse.; March 24, 2008 3:01 AM
Anonymous said...: Standard & Poor's Corp., in a continuing sign of loss of confidence in investment banks' eroding profitability, put Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH) on negative outlook on Friday.

Although the rating agency didn't change ratings on Goldman's AA- and Lehman Brothers' A+ senior debt, it brought its view of the likelihood of a precipitous decline in profits at the firms during the next few quarters to the same negative levels it had previously assigned to Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER) and Morgan Stanley (MS).

The outlook changes are appropriate in spite of the fact that recent actions by the Federal Reserve have instilled confidence in the capital markets, S&P added.

"We believe that negative rating outlooks are broadly appropriate for the independent securities firms, reflecting the potential for a more substantial decline in profitability from capital market activities," S&P said in a report whose principal authors are Managing Director Scott Sprinzen and analyst Diane Hinton. "Our current expectation is that net revenues could decline 20%-30% year-on-year (adjusting for write-downs)."

S&P had previously said rating downgrades would be likely if it believed that companies' balance sheets were being overloaded with assets that were deteriorating in value.; March 24, 2008 5:40 AM
Anonymous said...: China ought to curb inflation pressures driven by rising labor costs by preventing an overly rapid increase in incomes, said National Bureau of Statistics Director Xie Fuzhan.

Speaking during the weekend, Xie said an overly rapid increase in incomes could "lead to an upward spiraling of prices and wages."

A transcript of Xie's remarks at the China Development Forum was posted on the People's Daily Web site.

His comments come amid official concerns inflationary pressures could spread beyond food, which has been the key driver of China's inflation so far, as expectations of further price gains encourage workers in many sectors to seek higher wages.

Premier Wen Jiabao said last week inflation expectations could be more "scary" than price rises themselves.; March 24, 2008 5:41 AM
Anonymous said...: Indian federal bond yields climbed on Monday as a surprise acceleration in inflation in early March doused expectations for a rate cut in the near-term to support slowing growth.

The wholesale price index , published on Thursday, when the market was shut, rose 5.92 percent in the 12 months to March 8, higher than the previous week's 5.11 percent and way above a market forecast of 5.21 percent.; March 24, 2008 5:41 AM
Anonymous said...: A large number of expatriates, including Indians, have been affected due to rise in prices of essential commodities and soaring house rents.

Hard hit by continued inflation, Saudis and expatriates called for an immediate government intervention to curb it and asked for hike in their salaries to combat it.

Saudi Arabia's inflation hit 8.7% in February, a 27-year high. Up almost 25% on January's 7% figure, inflation soared as it lowered interest rates in line with US rate cuts. Last week it cut interest by 0.75%, following the US Federal Reserve cut.

Inflationary pressures have accompanied an economic boom stemming from the nearly 400 per cent jump in oil prices since 2002 and from Saudi Arabia's action in pegging its rival to the weak US dollar, which has pushed up some import prices.; March 24, 2008 5:42 AM
Anonymous said...: Brazil is studying ways to limit consumer credit in an effort to check inflation without having to raise the benchmark interest rate, the Globo daily newspaper reported.

The measures are likely to focus on consumer financing for automobiles and other durable consumer goods in which increased credit threatens to boost demand more quickly than steelmakers and other industries can provide the raw materials to produce the goods, Globo said, citing Finance Minister Guido Mantega.

To restrict credit, the government may limit the maximum term for auto loans and increase minimum down payments, the newspaper reported, citing unidentified finance ministry sources. Credit for potential home buyers won't be targeted.

The measures would give the government and industry time to increase investment in steel and other raw-material output so supply can increase in line with demand, preventing inflation from spreading throughout the economy, Globo said.; March 24, 2008 5:42 AM
Anonymous said...: Hong Kong's composite CPI increased 6.3% year-over-year in February, faster than 3.2% in January, the Census and Statistics Department said Thursday, the highest inflation rate in 10.5 years, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) government said Thursday.

Looking ahead, the government spokesman said the global food price inflation, elevated energy prices, gradual appreciation of the Chinese yuan and a weak Hong Kong dollar, which has been pegged to the U.S. dollar, would continue to pose upside risks.

Hong Kong banks cut their prime lending rates to the lowest in three years on Wednesday by 50 basis points, lagging a three-quarter point cut in the U.S. federal funds rate and adding to inflationary pressures that are straining the city's 24-year-old fixed exchange rate.

Hong Kong may be forced to abandon its 24-year-old fixed exchange rate to the dollar, following countries around the world ditching pegs to the falling U.S. currency, said Nomura Holdings Inc.; March 24, 2008 5:43 AM
Anonymous said...: Singapore's consumer price index rose at an annual pace of 6.5 percent in February because of higher housing, food and transportation costs, the government said Monday.

Higher accommodation costs and electricity tariffs pushed up housing costs by 8.8 percent. Food prices jumped 6.7 percent because of dearer cooked food, milk products, fresh poultry, fruit and bread, the Department of Statistics and Ministry of Trade and Industry said.

Transportation and communications costs increased 7.6 percent because of higher taxi fares and car prices.

The CPI was 0.5 percent higher in February than in January. Seasonally adjusted, it was 0.2 percent higher.; March 24, 2008 5:43 AM
Anonymous said...: San Jose, CA Real Estate Market Snapshot updated Monday, March 17, 2008 Median Price

Homes for Sale (MLS) $550,000
Foreclosures $400,000

On Yahoo Real Estate; March 24, 2008 6:12 AM
Anonymous said...: HA!

http://preview.tinyurl.com/2hmp76

Poor Ben! LOL

SotN; March 24, 2008 10:26 AM
Paul E. Math said...: Anyone else see this one?

http://tinyurl.com/36vzh4

Hilarious. Realtors crow that 'home' sales are on the rise because february sales were 2.9% higher than January. Nevermind that sales are down 23.8% from last year and prices are down 8.2% from last year.

Another example of NAR dishonest spin and lazy MSM cut-n-paste journalism.; March 24, 2008 2:46 PM
Anonymous said...: Anyone hear of this new book coming out by Thomas Lucier, entitled "How To Avoid Being Screwed By Realtors"?; March 24, 2008 3:49 PM
Anonymous said...: Very good post on Dollar Collapse - it's quite long and stuffed with good business sense, so I won't paste excerpts.

Basically, it's the views of a large RE investor who got out in 2006 on predictions of a 21% fall in the residential market in Florida.

His plan is to wait for CC/auto/commercial losses to hit banks. At this stage, it's the first of three or four perfect storms hitting the financial industry, and banks are being unrealistic.

When all that has worked its way through, he'll pick up property and bank shares for pennies on the dollar.

Sounds like a HP kind of guy!

http://tinyurl.com/2pvl3t; March 24, 2008 4:53 PM
Anonymous said...: I agree completely with Area 51. The situation here in Santa Fe is absolutely awful!; March 24, 2008 6:23 PM
Anonymous said...: TOPIC FOR DISCUSSION:

Do you think illegals give a crap about their FICO score?

Answer: F*CK NO!

Do they even have SSNs?

How do illegals get a loan to buy a house?

If they walk, they will just come back at some other time and get another illegal loan. They could change their name, use their wife, sister, child SSN, who gives a f*ck.

“‘What can I do? I’ve got no choice,’ said Jose Ruiz, 27, a landscaper and illegal immigrant from El Salvador who bought a Manassas condo two years ago for $200,000. He has been making $2,000 monthly payments for his mortgage and condo fees since then, spending most of his monthly income and all his savings.”

“He and his wife worry that they’ll be deported or separated from their daughters, ages 3 and 1. But they can’t sell their condo, which Ruiz estimates is worth $130,000 in the current market. So they’re planning to walk away rather than risk a forcible removal.”; March 24, 2008 7:10 PM
Anonymous said...: Government's mysterious inflation figures

For two years, this newspaper has been drawing attention to a curious fact. While the Government keeps assuring us that inflation is at record lows, costs seem to be rising fast.

A new survey shows quite how fast. The Conservatives have calculated the change in prices of a number of household items since Gordon Brown became Prime Minister nine months ago. For once, the phrase "bread and butter issues" applies literally.

A loaf, the figures show, is 28 per cent more expensive than when Tony Blair left Downing Street. Butter has risen by 37 per cent. There have been rises, too, in gas bills, petrol and, of course, taxes.

Yet, according to the Government, inflation is running at only 2.5 per cent. How can this be? Much of the explanation can be found in changes in how the statistics are compiled.

In 2003, partly to harmonise our practices with those of the EU, Mr Brown switched the measure from the Retail Price Index to the Consumer Price Index, which excludes many of the fastest-rising costs, such as council tax and house prices.

At the same time, there have been asymmetries in sectoral inflation rates. Things that we can buy from China have remained relatively cheap.

Indeed, the mass movement of Chinese peasants from the countryside to the booming cities has had the unintended effect of shielding several Left-of-centre European governments from the inflationary consequences of their spending policies. But items that we cannot import are dearer than ever.

Inevitably, different income groups experience price changes differently. Youngsters living at home and spending most of their income on foreign holidays and mobile phones enjoy deflation. Professionals struggling with school fees are wrestling with hyper-inflation. Overall, though, there are enormous rises in the cost of living.

At a time when our extended period of growth seems to be coming to an end, this is alarming. The Government's options are limited, but all economic orthodoxy urges it to anticipate the downturn by cutting taxes. It is not too late. Not yet.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/
main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/03/25
/dl2502.xml; March 25, 2008 1:18 AM
Anonymous said...: Egypt raises rates by half point, cites inflation

The bank said in a statement it decided to lift its overnight deposit rate by 50 basis points to 9.5 percent and the lending rate to 11.5 percent. It last raised the rates on February 10, its first change in over a year

It said a rise in urban consumer inflation to 12.1 percent in the year to February "exceeded the central bank's comfort zone".

http://africa.reuters.com/business/
news/usnBAN438024.html; March 25, 2008 1:20 AM
Anonymous said...: Mexico's 12-month inflation jumped unexpectedly in the first half of March to 4.24 percent, putting more pressure on the central bank to delay cutting interest rates despite fears of an economic slowdown.

Mexican consumer prices rose 0.48 percent during the first two weeks of this month, driven by price increases for agricultural products and in the tourism industry, the central bank said on Monday.

That pushed the 12-month rate up more than half a percentage point, from 3.72 percent in February.

http://www.reuters.com/article/
companyNewsAndPR/idUSN2432907920080324; March 25, 2008 1:21 AM
Anonymous said...: Sunnyvale, Ca
Bed 1 Bath 1 Sqft 694
Sold for $100,000 (1/24/08)
Last sell $965,000 (7/27/06)

Sunnyvale, Ca
Bed 3 Bath 2 Sqft 1954
Sold for $317,000 (1/03/08)
Last sell $770,000 (9/20/06)

Sunnyvale, Ca
Bed 3 Bath 2 Sqft 1078
Asking $440,000
Last sell $630,000 (7/27/06)

Sunnyvale, Ca
Bed 4 Bath 3 Sqft 1000
Asking $459,000
Last sell $485,000 (7/06/04)

Sunnyvale, Ca
Bed 3 Bath 2 Sqft 1000
Asking $460,000
Last sell

Mountain View, Ca
Bed 4 Bath 2 sqft 1570
Sold for $139,000 (1/02/08)
Last sell $700,000 (12/09/05)

Campbell, Ca
Bed 3 Bath 2 sqft 1244
Sold for $300,000 (1/23/08)
Last sell $704,000 (5/27/04)

Cupertino, Ca
Bed 3 Bath 2 sqft 1080
Sold for $345,000 (1/04/08)
Last sell $474,000 (5/21/03)

Los Gatos, Ca
Bed 3 Bath 2 sqft 2515
Sold for $425,000 (1/09/08)
Last sell $1,350,000 (1/05/07); March 25, 2008 2:22 AM
Anonymous said...: What Created This Monster?

And every day for the last three weeks he has convened meetings in a war room in Pimco’s headquarters in Newport Beach, Calif., “to make sure the ark doesn’t have any leaks,” Mr. Gross said. “We come in every day at 3:30 a.m. and leave at 6 p.m. I’m not used to setting my alarm for 2:45 a.m., but these are extraordinary times.”

Even though Mr. Gross, 63, is a market veteran who has lived through the collapse of other banks and brokerage firms, the 1987 stock market crash, and the near meltdown of the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund a decade ago, he says the current crisis feels different — in both size and significance.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/23
/business/23how.html; March 25, 2008 3:21 AM
Anonymous said...: Be careful what you wish for. Here's one bitter renter who's got to be even more bitter than normal:

sfgate; March 25, 2008 6:52 PM
Anonymous said...: Memo to all Bear Stearns employees that will receive a pink slip in the coming days. There aren't any IB jobs around at this time but we have an opening if you can eloquently say "DO YOU WANT FRIES WITH THIS?"; March 25, 2008 8:59 PM
Anonymous said...: Spring Home-Selling Season Could Disappoint if New Data on Falling Prices Is Indication

Home prices plunged by record levels in January from a year ago, with almost no major cities immune from the spiraling market.

Analysts worried that even the usually reliable spring selling season would fall flat.

The closely watched Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 cities fell nearly 11 percent in January from a year earlier, the biggest drop in its two-decade history.

Prices were down about 20 percent in Las Vegas and Miami, both paying the price for especially rampant speculation and too much new construction during the housing boom.

Fourteen other cities posted record declines in the Tuesday report.

Rising foreclosures have become the biggest factor driving prices lower, Moody's Economy.com chief economist Mark Zandi said.

The vast majority of homes in the U.S. are not in danger of foreclosure.

But the housing slump has raised concerns about a recession and has had ripple effects across the economy.

A separate survey Tuesday from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight said home prices fell 3 percent in January from the same month last year.

That index is calculated using mortgages of $417,000 or less that are bought or backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/
080325/home_prices.html; March 26, 2008 4:33 AM
Anonymous said...: The embattled financial sector racked by the credit crisis took another hit on Tuesday after JPMorgan Chase and UBS AG lowered their views on Merrill Lynch & Co Inc, expecting the Wall Street firm to disclose more write-downs.

In turn, Merrill sweepingly downgraded regional banks Bank of America, PNC Financial and SunTrust Banks Inc, saying the bursting of the housing bubble will continue to have negative impacts on lending and home equity.

The sharply lowered earnings expectations for Merrill stood out, though, dashing whatever confidence had been restored last week after the Federal Reserve helped to finance a deal in which JPMorgan would take over Bear Stearns Cos Inc, narrowly evading a systemic meltdown among banks.

''In our view, Merrill Lynch is overexposed to the credit markets, which have been challenging, especially in the areas where Merrill has been most active in,'' said JPMorgan analysts Kenneth Worthington and Funda Akarsu in a note.

JPMorgan predicted Merrill would write down an additional $2.1 billion in subprime debt, leading to a loss in the first quarter.

http://www.deepikaglobal.com/
ENG3_sub.asp?ccode=ENG3&newscode
=16740; March 26, 2008 4:50 AM
Anonymous said...: Iceland's central bank Tuesday unexpectedly raised its key interest rate by 125 basis points to 15 percent, citing higher-than-expected inflation, strong demand and the falling value of the country's currency.

"It will only be more painful if inflation is allowed to get out of hand. Consequently, it will be necessary to continue to pursue a very tight monetary policy in order to bring inflation and inflation expectations under control and increase confidence in the krona," the bank said.

The rate hike saw the krona strengthen against the euro, to 116 at 1103 a.m, from 123.5 prior to the announcement.; March 26, 2008 6:23 AM
Anonymous said...: South African inflation probably climbed above 9 percent in February for the first time in almost five years, adding to speculation the central bank may resume raising interest rates, a survey of economists said.

``The short-term inflation outlook has deteriorated significantly,'' said Elize Kruger, an economist at Kagiso Securities in Johannesburg. ``The Reserve Bank's credibility is at stake. The inflation numbers may be too dramatic for them to do nothing.''

"Inflation is when you pay fifteen dollars for the ten-dollar haircut you used to get for five dollars when you had hair." -- Sam Ewing.; March 26, 2008 6:24 AM
Anonymous said...: Goldman sees credit losses totaling $1.2 trillion

Goldman Sachs forecasts global credit losses stemming from the current market turmoil will reach $1.2 trillion, with Wall Street accounting for nearly 40 percent of the losses.

U.S. leveraged institutions, which include banks, brokers-dealers, hedge funds and government-sponsored enterprises, will suffer roughly $460 billion in credit losses after loan loss provisions, Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a research note released late on Monday.

Losses from this group of players are crucial because they have led to a dramatic pullback in credit availability as they have pared lending to shore up their capital and preserve their capital requirements, they said.

Goldman estimated $120 billion in write-offs have been reported by these leveraged institutions since the credit crunch began last summer.

http://www.reuters.com/article/
bankingFinancial/
idUSN2539260820080326; March 26, 2008 6:32 AM
Anonymous said...: Iceland's central bank Tuesday unexpectedly raised its key interest rate by 125 basis points to 15 percent, citing higher-than-expected inflation, strong demand and the falling value of the country's currency.

So what are the Penguins playing with now? ICELAND? Give us a break, next thing we need to be informed what the central bank of Mali is doing. Get a life!; March 26, 2008 2:10 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith,

I don't always have time to read everything on the site (it definitely grows quickly!) so I probably missed your comments) on the Obama/Wright matter.

Are you still an Obama supporter now that he has been shown to have morally and financially supported an anti-white racist for 20 years?

I see that McCain has come out against the gov doing mortgage bailouts and asking the lenders to take responsibility for any needed homeowner support.

Does the combination of these two cause you to rethink your Obama endorsement?; March 26, 2008 5:58 PM
Anonymous said...: BREAKING!! ANGRY MOBS PROTEST @ BEAR STEARNS!!

http://tinyurl.com/2n9mpe

BSC Employees mock home debtors as losing over 1 TRILLION in bad debt!!!; March 26, 2008 6:59 PM
Anonymous said...: Anonymous Anonymous said...

Iceland's central bank Tuesday unexpectedly raised its key interest rate by 125 basis points to 15 percent, citing higher-than-expected inflation, strong demand and the falling value of the country's currency.

So what are the Penguins playing with now? ICELAND? Give us a break, next thing we need to be informed what the central bank of Mali is doing. Get a life!

Get back in the closet Bubble Boy.; March 26, 2008 7:57 PM
Anonymous said...: Agagagagaga.

Yo Keith go pay a visit to BloodSuckerBlog. Bloodsucker is reducing the price of it's Unchained Scaminar back down to the original Crazy Eddie price.

I guess there weren't enough dumbshit desperate realtwhores willing to pay full price.; March 26, 2008 8:59 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith;

Great article on FOX(!!!!!)titled:

"Time to Listen to Ron Paul?"

http://tinyurl.com/3b7cff

I wonder how much time is left before Fox News hands the pink slip to Liz McDonlad!!

MAX; March 26, 2008 11:47 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23814563

Foreclosure Bus Tours.....BRAHAHHAHAHHAHHAA!!!!!; March 27, 2008 12:12 AM
Anonymous said...: The tour ended after seven homes, and while Ziesig received no concrete offers for any of the homes, she was happy she was able to make home buying more fun and accessible to potential buyers. She plans tours in April and May, and even wants to have a bilingual tour for Spanish-speakers.

BRAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAH!!!!! ZERO SALES!!!!; March 27, 2008 12:16 AM
Anonymous said...: .

Tarbell realtorette, Rancho Mirage, Ca., Tues. Mar. 25,

"We have hit bottom, prices are on the way back up"!

USATODAY money section, Weds. March 26,

"Battered home prices keep toppling"!

Who ya gonna believe?

.; March 27, 2008 1:21 AM
Anonymous said...: Derivative

If you go back a few centuries, you'll find the origin of derivatives was innocent enough: farmers wanting to protect the price for their crops.

"A farmer in the field didn't want to risk it that when his crop came in, he wouldn't be able to get the price that he wants.

He might go to a grocer and say 'let's agree that on this future date I'll sell to you for this price.'

And that's what's called a forward contract," And the grocer would agree because he knew he would get as many crops as he needed that year at a guaranteed price.

So both the farmer and the grocer came out ahead: they already agreed on a certain price for a given amount of grain.

So both were protected financially, even in case of a bad year for crops.

Thanks to the contract, the grocer had his crops, and the farmer had his money.

The contract itself was the "derivative" because it was derived from something else: the crops and the agreed-upon price for them.

Not Assets, But Deals Made about Assets

So derivatives aren't actually assets, but deals made about assets.

And in many cases, they're just bets.; March 27, 2008 2:30 AM
Anonymous said...: Bear Stearns deal boosts J.P. Morgan’s derivatives exposure.

Bank is already largest player in swaps market. And the market just got more concentrated.

The government-supported sale of Bear Stearns announced last week may have halted a run on investment banks, but its pending acquisition by J.P. Morgan Chase would increase the buyer’s already hefty exposure to possibile failures by other banks and financial institutions, an exposure known as counterparty risk.

Much of that exposure is the result of derivative contracts to which J.P. Morgan is a counterparty.

For starters, J.P. Morgan’s own exposure to derivatives could balloon if the deal is completed. At the end of 2007, J.P. Morgan’s exposure totaled $77.2 trillion in notional value, exceeding that of any other commercial bank, while Bear Stearns had $13.4 trillion in notional value.; March 27, 2008 2:31 AM
Anonymous said...: European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said interest rates at a six-year high will help curb inflation in the 15 nations sharing the euro, suggesting he sees no immediate need to cut borrowing costs.

``The current monetary-policy stance will contribute to achieving our price-stability objective,'' Trichet told European lawmakers in Brussels today.

``In the Governing Council's view, the risks to the medium-term outlook for inflation are on the upside.''

The ECB has resisted pressure to follow its counterparts in the U.S. and U.K. and cut rates in response to a global surge in credit costs and slowing growth.

Trichet noted that German business confidence unexpectedly rose in March and said inflation, which is running at the fastest pace in 14 years, will stay above the ECB's 2 percent limit for most of this year.

``Inflation developments support Trichet's assessments,'' said Holger Bahr, an economist at Dekabank in the Frankfurt. ``There are no reasons for the ECB to deviate from its path.''; March 27, 2008 2:32 AM
Anonymous said...: On Wednesday after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said that inflation was seen rising to around 3 percent, muddying the path to further UK rate cuts.

"The comments raise risk inflation will rise towards 3 percent in coming quarters and shows King is relatively hawkish in regards to inflationary concerns and monetary easing will be only gradual." Lee Hardman, currency strategist at BTM UFJ.; March 27, 2008 2:32 AM
Anonymous said...: Anonymous Anonymous said...

Iceland's central bank Tuesday unexpectedly raised its key interest rate by 125 basis points to 15 percent, citing higher-than-expected inflation, strong demand and the falling value of the country's currency.

So what are the Penguins playing with now? ICELAND? Give us a break, next thing we need to be informed what the central bank of Mali is doing. Get a life!

Get back in the closet Bubble Boy.

I love it, keep showing how stupid you are. Like W, arrogance mostly comes from stupidity. Iceland is the number 2 country for the carry trade after Japan you dipsh*t. Go play in the street kid. I know you think you are pretty smart but all of you arrogant turds show how stupid you are over and over and over again. No wonder we had 8 years under the village idiot.; March 27, 2008 2:54 AM
Anonymous said...: "Are you still an Obama supporter now that he has been shown to have morally and financially supported an anti-white racist for 20 years?"

Probably so. RW radio is only able to jerk the chain of idiots like you with such foolish sh*t. Only dumbasses like you and your fellow drooling Limpball and Hellity listeners. The WSJ poll shows it had no effect on Obamas numbers. Democrats aren't so easily whipped by faux outrage. Oh no did you hear some school board in Maine is going to tell children what homoism is??!!!! Next the liberals will turn us all queer. Arrgghh!!!
Bwahahaah. You idiots are so pathetic.; March 27, 2008 3:01 AM
Anonymous said...: Interesting link at Mish's Trend Analysis: Wasn't this Nina in some hot dispute with bubble bloggers about a condo flip of hers in Florida some year ago? See what can happen to houseowners, even if they are not idiots, under
http://www.queercents.com/2008/03/26/citibank-freezes-home-equity-lines-of-credit-helocs/; March 27, 2008 3:26 AM
Anonymous said...: Anon 3:01 am:

> RW radio is only able to jerk the chain of idiots like you with such foolish sh*t. Only dumbasses like you and your fellow drooling Limpball and Hellity listeners. The WSJ poll shows it had no effect on Obamas numbers. Democrats aren't so easily whipped by faux outrage.

So my question, oh brave anonymous one, is are you angry because Obama turned out to support a racist over decades or just because the news media is reluctantly reporting on it?; March 27, 2008 2:20 PM
Anonymous said...: Not angry with either and except for the Aids conspiracy nothing Wright has actually said is disagreeable to me. I wouldn't have used such strong rhetoric to explain the truths he did but I used to attend on occasion a mostly black church and the revs there can get pretty spirited with the rhetoric. I'm just irritated by the stupidity of people like you. Who of course were never going to support Obama anyway. Its this false outrage that drives stupid people like you to react when the media and RW radio pushes your buttons and then we end up with W. Admit it, the racial overtones didn't offend you. The fact that he spoke against the small-minded narrative you have allowed yourself to be indoctrinated with regarding the infallibility of America is what really enrages you. It’s the square peg you idiots try and jam in every round hole. And the one thing you can't stand is to have the falseness of the narrative /worldview exposed. That’s the thing that launches you brain dead RW idiots into orbit every time. When other don't go along with your myth. Just the way real estate agents and flippers would go nuts 1-2 years ago when people would point out the insanity of the housing market. You RW idiots are politically the equivalent of real estate agents AKA ramen noodle eaters.; March 27, 2008 5:51 PM