PANIC.
We're there.
Capitulation.
We're there.
Despondency and depression.
They're coming.
Then, oh, yes, then...
HOPE.
Sweet, sweet hope.
Hope that we can right the wrongs.
Hope that we get rid of the incompetent leaders, and replace them with the competent.
Hope that America and the world can rise from the ashes.
Hope that we learn from this debacle and these awful eight years.
Hope that we will tackle our financial issues head on.
Hope that the NAR can be destroyed.
Hope that America can re-invent herself.
Hope that our REIC-corrupted system can be cleansed.
Hope that we will again become a nation of laws.
Hope that Dick Cheney and George Bush and Alberto Gonzales and Chris Dodd and Angelo Mozilo and Michael Perry experience the cold hard reality of jail.
Hope that capitalism and democracy and free markets can and will triumph.
Hope.
The first inkling of hope starts November 5, 2008. And it really begins January 20, 2009. After that, day by day, it'll grow brighter. And we'll start again.
I've told you about it for three years, and you rejected it. Go read the archives. But now that day shall come.
Soon the PANIC will end, while the nasty cleansing continues, and then hope begins. Just look at the chart. It will happen. It's just a question of when.
We are America. We continually reinvent ourselves and move on. We go to the abyss, but we don't fall in. We sometimes elect terribly corrupt and despicable leaders, and then we get rid of them.
We truly are that shining city on a hill. Even when we sometimes suck.
And it hath been foretold.
October 10, 2008
If you want perma-doom and gloom, go find another blog. We're in the PANIC stage now HP'ers. And as all of you should know, eventually comes hope.
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68 comments:
"Hope and Change"
- Barack Obama (2008)
Is that what you mean by hope, Keith?
BwahahahahaHAHAHA!!
PS - I'm not for McCain either. Both of these corrupt monkeys shouldn't be allowed anywhere near the Whitehouse.
Keith, you are too far ahead of the curve. Yes, there is panic in the markets. Capitulation? Not before the big rescue attempts have failed. Despondency? Not before normal people tune out when there is talk about the markets.
I hope that Obama wins, but he is no savior. We have to work us ourselves out of this hole.
We are in panic stage now. No more, no less.
Peter T is right.
Just look at that chart. When it's done, HP will just be a blog that told a story. A big story, but just a story.
We're in PANIC right now. And some really, really bad sh*t happens between PANIC and hope.
HP'ers are always too early. So you'll start having hope when your fellow citizens are stuck in hell. You'll be spending your cash buying up assets when others will want to get rid of them at any price.
But the time between PANIC and hope? It might be the one of the worst times you'll ever see.
But hope will come. It truly hath been foretold. Just look at the chart, and read your history. It's just a question of when.
Subquestion:
How long between Panic and Hope?
Hallelujah, Keith. I am right there with you. The suffering is not over by a long shot, but at least now we can tentatively begin the conversations that lead somewhere better than this. You have done good work with this blog. Thank you. L.
P.S. Everyone: read Cradle to Cradle!
I still think the markets are in panic mode but main street is in fear.
How long between Panic and Hope?
"When I become President of the United States I will bring Hope and Change and free goodies for all. Yes We Can!"
- Barack Obama (2008)
Does that answer your question?
Now Keith, don't go getting soft on us.
What is going to happen in 2010, 2011 when all the alt-a and prime mortgages reset and people find they are 20-30% underwater? Right, they will walk and we'll be going through this again. Or is it 'still'?
What happens when the unexploded CDS time bomb is triggered? (http://tinyurl.com/4bgqdv)
I want to pick up a few bargains too but I think it's far too early to say whether that is light at the end of the tunnel or just an oncoming train.
Not all stages on the continuum last the same amount of time.
Panic - We're there.
Capitulation - We are NOT there. Everyone is hailing the late -150 "rally" on Friday. Capitulation will come next week when the crap really hits the fan.
Then comes Despondency.
Keith, what say you of the news tonight from Paulson?
Iceland REVOLUTION HAS BEGUN..... 200 protest and crowd grows....Angry at BRITAIN and ready to OVERTHROW the worlds oldest surviving Parliament.
Revolutions begin in SMALL groups and then GROW.
This is going to expand to other countries. Guaranteed.
Hello folks
British PM Gordon Brown used the Anti Terrorist Act to freeze
Icelandic holdings in Great Britain.
That means you have the distinct honor
of having a terrorist in your midst, me.
No more identity crisis for me then.
On a serious note, this could easily be construed
as a declaration of war on our little island,
it is at least clearly a hostile act.
To make all Icelanders responsible
for the acts of our misguided government
and mobster banksters has people seething
around these parts. Can you spell revolution?
Kaupthing had it´s assets seized in Britain,
which caused the bank to roll over and die.
This was our biggest bank and one that
would probably have survived, if not
for this action of Mr. Brown.
Now he threatens to take over all
Icelandic assets in Britain.
I have talked with many Icelanders
about this latest development and
they roughly fall into two groups.
One hopes this will be smoothed over,
that Britain is a friend and we will
all kiss and make up in the end.
The other says that hostile acts
like this are intolerable and the
British Ambassador should be sent packing.
I belong to the second group most heartily.
In fact I´m so damn mad that I´m as close
as I have ever been to typing curse words.
I will say this though.
Mr. Gordon Brown you may kiss my terrorist ass.
I wont enter panic until I have to start pumping my 12 GA shotgun to keep the losers off my paid for property. Problem is that when that happens I will be doing my defensive moves all alone. That will not be good.
Keith,
I agree with Peter T, we have not even begun to see the real unwinding - unless you're being sarcastic. The debt binge of the past 30 years cannot be undone in a month, or even a year. Expect many counter rallies and false bottoms over the next several years as deflation reinforces depression, in a perverse death swoon - afterwards, who knows what might happen. After all there is still Peak Oil, depletion hasn't exactly gone away now has it? In the meantime HPer's can try to make money on the swings and roundabouts on the way down. Just a word of warning though, Bear markets eventually slay all participants.
Regards,
John T.
I don't know Keith. I still think it is "fear" that is driving the markets.
We still had buyers come in today and bring the DOW from a 400+ loss to a 128 loss. If we are in panic we wouldn't see buyers of stocks coming in at this point.
I still think we are in the fear stage because the G7 is now trying to come up with policy steps to fix the problem. I don't believe they know the extent of the problem or we would be seeing handcuffs and frog marches.
At what stage do we see the handcuffs?
To me handcuffs and frog marches will be the real sign of "Panic".
Because then and only then the enforement agencies will know they can't fix the problem and it is time to place blame!
I know that I will get jumped on all over, but as a Reagan Republican (who thinks Bush is an idiot), I must hold my nose and vote for Obama, if for no other reason to heal America's worldwide reputation. . .hey folks we NEED the rest of the world right now to buy our frickin Treasury Bills. . .Obama probably will give the people of the US a better "hope" speach than McCaine would or could. . .I agree with others here, that neither candidate is great, but I do think Obama can inspire, and repair the reputation of the US.
I remember being in Florence, Italy a month after 9/11, and the towns folk were signing a condolence book at the central train station to deliver to NYC. . . we had the world in our hands then, and Bush spit in their face. . .that is why I hate him so. . .he is beyong ignorant.
I just drove through north fla/south georgia. The country will be diversified away from. too many nutcases now. Opportunity will exist for those who think globally. The average US worker is freakin toast!!
Oh give it a break. You see how much things are changing already. Noone has even been implicated of a crime. George Bush is out there acting like he is surprised that any of this has happened and some dipshits actually believe him. Mc Cain who might gain a tiny bit od credibility by admitting that the polies he enabled lead to this disaster but instead are trying spin that Obama is a terrorist. I don't see anything changing. I just see glossing over. Perhaps this isn't the bottom and we have more lessons and a couple years more to learn. In other words the addicts are giving lip service to the 12 step program but they are not planning to change. You are premature Keith.
btw if you ever come to Rio let me know Keith. I owe you for entertaining me every day for the past year.
I guess when we hit the hope stage your going to turn the flag around?
It has been a privilege to follow your blog into the abyss since 2005 , Keith
It also will be to follow this blog and all it's diligent , funny , rowdy , stupid , amazing and all the other comments posted here.
I am honestly proud to be an HP'er. I hope to be for a good while longer.
The information here has been very accurately predicted since this blogs inception. It has helped a few of my friends through "advice" in avoiding the "RealtWhore" Ha Ha !!
Thanks :-)
Anonymous in Phoenix , Arizonuhhh
It has been a privilege to follow your blog into the abyss since 2005 , Keith
It also will be to follow this blog and all it's diligent , funny , rowdy , stupid , amazing and all the other comments posted here.
I am honestly proud to be an HP'er. I hope to be for a good while longer.
The information here has been very accurately predicted since this blogs inception. It has helped a few of my friends through "advice" in avoiding the "RealtWhore" Ha Ha !!
Thanks :-)
Anonymous in Phoenix , Arizonuhhh
Hope that a socialist like Obama with liberal majorities in both house and senate can make things right...
Yeah.
LIKE I"VE BEEN SAYING.
9mm and Canned tuna.
All you need boo !
Do you think it's time to buy? I was thinking that after all this intervention, we may have super rapid inflation, so it might be worth it to sink the money into a house. What do you all think?
We will probably go through hell and rebuild but unless we raise the kids to understand that cooperation is better than competition, that materialism is a fool's game and that capitalism is evil it will just happen again.
And as long as conservatism exists we won't be able to even express those things effectively.
I think the main problem here, is that we're stuck between two crysis:
-the solvency crysis (or credit crysis, if you want)
&
-the energy crysis.
So what happened is that the energy crysis lowered household solvency, making the great housing ponzi scheme collapse. Now, as the economy comes to a halt, energy prices are falling, posponing the great investements we made back when oil was $150.
Therefore, I can foresee a future where we keep trying to save our system of overspending via credit, and keep hitting a wall as soon as energy resources come short. I bet it will take 2 or 3 similar recession events for 'leaders' to get the contradiction.
So you're right, there will be hope. But that hope will be crushed every single time.
This is gonna suck
I'm looking forward to Hope too... but neither Obummer nor McCain are the ones to do it.
We'll need another eight years of hell, during which I hope the government doesn't turn into a bloated monster. (We haven't had GovPANIC yet, I might note!)
Then... God willing, we'll get a younger version of Ron Paul coming along.
Panic ?
No way. It's the new standard
For now.
The long awaited capitulation is still a ways off. I believe capitulation means surrender. I don't see cnbc and fox biz giving up. Despondency will then pass quickly to a false hope.
This panic will go on, when the pumpers on cnbc quit talking about bulls, we then will have capitulation. Until then I will enjoy the burning, maybe even have some popcorn, perhaps s'mores.
You're totally right, about everything except it starting to get brighter with the next presidential election. The appropriate history would be Japan circa 1990, or America circa 1930. The next administration will likely make things much, much worse; one could debate which party will be worse overall, but both have promised to prolong and worsen the depression stage. Hope is still a ways away.
Sorry Keith, the panic hasn't started yet. Until people see their neighbors losing jobs and getting kicked out of houses, this is largely a Wall Street crisis. People have compared these events to 9/11, sorry not even close.
Obama will likely win and he will try to rule a divided country. He will discover that "hope" is just another throwaway word unless he finds a way to marshall the will of the American people. Lincoln, Eisenhower, Kennedy, and Reagan did it, is this skinny kid their equal? Maybe he will surprise me and rise to the challenge.
I'm with shultzie: How long does Despondency last?
Should I stock pile Prozac instead of gold?
Hope...you know some governments keep their people in a never ending stage of "hope" in order to make them more easily controllable and tricking them into giving up their liberties and freedoms...
So when does the "relief" stage come? When we all have RFID chips in our arms? When we are no longer able to own guns or private property? When we're not able to criticize whoever is in charge?
Keith,
we are at "Panic" for sure however, the right wing is still trying to blame this on Clinton and the Dems. Capitulation and everything else is yet to come. We still need to see the RETHUGLICANS admit that excess deregulation leads to socialism.
Keith said...
I've told you about it for three years, and you rejected it. Go read the archives. But now that day shall come.
Soon the PANIC will end, while the cleansing continues, and then hope begins.
We are America. We continually reinvent ourselves and move on. We go to the abyss, but we don't fall in. We truly are that shining city on a hill. Even when we sometimes suck.
And it hath been foretold.
So are you changing the name of the blog to HousingProphecy?
At the beauty shop today. One full hour all about the building of new homes (but scared because no one is even looking at their existing homes and they have to sell in next 60 days to move into new home by Xmas, then there was granite countertops vs. Corian vs textured formica, hardwood vs. carpet and then there were the discussions of which Toyota was the coolest for 2009 and also JC Penneys is having their annual diamond and gold sale. This was 5 hairstylists discussing the above for a full hour. Not a single one had a clue that there was anything at all wrong with the world. I just listened and smiled and then went home and watched the world collapse in slow mo on Bloomberg.
I sure hope they get started on the reinvention of themselves soon or they may be moving into the beauty shop for the winter.
JaneZ
That was capitulation today.
Stop trying to rush things.
Depression can last for a long time - and it's supposed to. In some ways it's supposed to make a person slow down... get out of the rat race... and forces them to reexamine their lives and the decisions they made to get to where they are. Something you can't do when you have to rush around to pay for all the bills.
The length of time is also relative to how long it took you to get screwed up in the process.
Talking about hope now... nah... alot of people on this blog are still in denial.
We have a long way to go and you need to give people some time to unwind before they go out and start running around full of hope again.
It's sort of like pregnancy.
You can have one woman and a baby in nine months. But even if you have nine women, that doesn't mean you'll have a baby in one month.
Let nature takes it's course.
Capitulation is still in the future.
Long way to go.
Our political leaders say: I'm not a communist I just think we should nationalize the financial system.
Bwahahahaha Do we have to start calling each other comrade yet? I'm seriously wondering why I work to pay these punitive taxes when I could just take to the couch and get in the bailout line with everyone else. I'm sure that in the future I'll have 50% of my paycheck go missing instead of 40% because what doesn't get paid for today accrues interest to be paid tomorrow. Tax rates to 90%!
And no, we're not in a recession, everything is fine.
remember the good ol days when we just had stupid little wall street banks failing? well that was last month. now we're up to entire countries failing. what happens when the entire earth fails? is there some sort of galactic fed that can lower interest rates or take an equity stake in worthless earth stocks?
1929--> market didn't break even until 1954
2008--> no recovery until 2033? Sit tight, and don't worry, those young people just starting in life will have to stay at the office a little later each day to pay for their grandparents' retirement on the golf course. Everything is ok. And just remember above all else, we're not in a recession! (pay no attention to that whole trillions-of-dollars-in-wealth-wiped-out thing)
I am totally shitting bricks right now.I am knee deep in debt and they cut my credit off.What is a guy to do?
.
If Obama's the Answer,
What the Hell was the Question?
.
Your true measure of PANIC is when the ALT-A loans start recasting in the billions next year.
PANIC for the most part is happening at Wall Street, not at Main Street.
Main Street knows that something is going on and Main Street knows that they should be worry, but for the most part Main Street is in denial.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/
quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND
With the TED SPREAD at 4.64% today
Joe6Pack still has no clue what that means.
For the most part Joe6Pack still has no knowledge of what is about to take place.
Yes the market is tanking, but Joe6Pack doesn't play the market.
The housing market is Joe6Pack real measure, and as long as Joe6Pack thinks his house for 10 years is still worth allot more then what he paid then Joe6Pack will not understand all of the fuss.
Joe6Pack does know that the homes in the bad location brought by sub-prime loans have gone down allot, but his house is in a good location.
Even today Joe6Pack will not understand that the company he works for has just gotten their credit cut, and his company will have to burn their cash reserve to ride through this Credit Crisis.
Joe6Pack is a productive worker so that means that Joe6Pack co-workers might lose their jobs and they won't be able to pay their bills.
Joe6Pack will have no understands that the bad loans that were created were made in phases with the ALT-A loans to be the next phase of bad loans to defaults.
Six months from now Joe6Pack will not understand why his former co-workers are trying to sell their homes which they lived in for at least 10 years at such a low price since their houses is right next to his.
"How long between Panic and Hope?
"
How many licks to get to the middle of a Tootsie roll pop?
Same number of years to get to Hope.
"How long between Panic and Hope?"
per google maps its 1,108 mi – about 17 hours 6 mins driving to get from Panic, PA to Hope, AR
The problem is that all the major candidates want to do is turn back the clock to 2005.
I couldn't agree with you more...
The differences between today and the Great Depression are many and sundry:
The Dow Jones industrial average is down more than one-third from its high a year ago. The stock market lost 89% of its value from its peak during the Great Depression. During the most recent bear market, from March 2000 to October 2002, the market lost about 50%. Same for 1973-1974 and two other times since 1937.
With stocks down 36%, we are closer to a bottom than a top. Most, if not all, of the bear damage may have already been done.
*One big difference is that during the Great Depression, there was no deposit insurance, causing a huge run on banks (watch out for bank runs England-deposit insurance there is a paltry $4,000). As customers withdrew their money, you had banks failing right and left. About 7,000 and 8,000 failed between 1929 and 1932. Today, 13 have collapsed, with 117 on the government’s watch list. Yes today’s banks are much bigger than the banks of the ’30s–but so far, absent Washington Mutual and Wachovia, the big banks have not toppled. And these two banks are being taken over by bigger players.
Industrial production dropped by 45% during the Great Depression. So far it is down 1.5% this year, led by the downturn in the automotive sector. US manufacturing remains in a recession, however.
*Gary Becker, a Nobel prize-winning professor of economics at the University of Chicago, notes in a Wall Street Journal editorial that although we are in the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s, this is a far smaller crisis, especially in terms of the effects on output and employment.
*Becker adds too that the crisis that kills capitalism has been said to happen during every major recession and financial crisis ever since Karl Marx prophesied the collapse of capitalism in the middle of the 19th century. He says he is confident that sizable world economic growth will resume before very long under a mainly capitalist world economy.
Then you get Obama, the man of choice for the REIC. The man whose career started under CRA, the same government mandate that forced the banks to make loans on houses in locations of high risk without adequate down payment; the man whose top adviser (James Johnson) was previously CEO of Fannie and managing director of Lehman Brothers. Some change all right, for the worse! Just like the freshman Senator McCain was two decades ago, neck deep in the ponzi scam S&L industry . . . Both men have interesting bios, but have been recruited and thoroughly vetted by the ponzi scammers and the biggest welfare queens (bankers in central banking system).
The only reason I'm moving cash into the stock market is because of the eminent mega inflation turning "cash is king" to "cash is trash" . . . no, stocks and houses are not going to be more valuable in real terms . . . but hey, one can only have so much ammo, canned food and precious metal; the rest of the money has to go somewhere before it is only fit for wall papering.
Keith - for the record for a long time I doubted you. I figured there was a bubble, but it wasnt a big deal - for the record, I was wrong and you were right.
Also, its nice to see you willing to change your mood when times dictate. There is no doubt what stage we are in now. Perma bears will be angry, call you a traitor - whatever. They are now as wrong as I was years ago.
Finally, mad props to you on one thing you saw which to my knowledge no one else saw -CASH IS KING
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/10/news/dollar.deleveraging.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008101014
Even more amazingly, look who you outflanked on the strenghth of the dollar. Bubble head Peter Shiff!!! For all his correct views, even he missed the dollar play that you nailed.
YOU OUTDREW SHIFF DUDE - YOU NAILED IT!!!!!!
Way to stay ahead of the curve! I think you will be proven right, yet again. It is going to suck eggs for a while between now and hope, but at least in the mean time, we won't have to listen to acquisitive yuppies telling us we should buy more houses because they're not making any more land.
Premature Panic, Keith.
Where are the "get me out of this property at any price" panic sales.
One should also see great deals on luxury cars, boats and airplanes.
Everyone that thought they'd be the wise one to buy at the bottom will either have no access to credit, or without a job or equity portfolio they will have no capital to pull the trigger - which will put more pressure on panic selling.
Fear is just getting comfortable in its seat.
PANIC??? I havent seen it yet. I have seen it on TV but nowhere in my real life dealings! People are still trying to buy their 300,000 buck shacks thinking tomorrow will be another day. They are still sticking to their 401Ks thinking everything is ok!
The Hubris of the US is going to bring us down. NOBODY I talk to in my real life thinks there is a problem. They think the US will never collapse. They think we will be on the top forever. Im sure the Romans thought that too.
ca·pit·u·la·tion
n.
1. The act of surrendering or giving up. See Synonyms at surrender.
Hey Keith,
Remember you said CASH WAS KING (NOT US DOLLARS). Well you shouldn't have qualified it that way. US Dollars are doing the best right now in this flight to quality mode we're in. I know the US dollar will get hammered later but you have to admit, you didn't expect this type of rally in the US Dollar, did you? Did you? Did you?
-Mike
I said cash does not mean US dollars - cash is yen, cash is gold, cash is euros, etc
It's good to be diversified, and always will be
That said, I was pleasantly surprised by the short term rush to dollars. My pint of beer just dropped 20%.
The dollar will continue to have wild swings, and I'm fearful of a total collapse. Don't let short term moves fool you.
But damn it's nice to have a rally - finally, after three years of pain for us US expats.
Meanwhile, think about the europeans - their currency is tanking, while their markets tank at the same time. Worst of both worlds. And for the Icelanders, they're going to be dumpster diving soon. Why? Because they weren't currency diversified.
We will probably go through hell and rebuild but unless we raise the kids to understand that cooperation is better than competition, that materialism is a fool's game and that capitalism is evil it will just happen again.
---------------
I agree wholeheartedly but I'm having a really tough time showing my kids the way to cooperation as I, myself, was brainwashed into competition.
I think future generations will only practice it when forced into it for survival reasons.
America is Dead.
Fuck Americans.
Dude you are hilarious....
Just like Rome eventually rose back to its former glory....
Yeah that chart rules eternity for ever and ever.
Anonymous said...
"How long between Panic and Hope?"
per google maps its 1,108 mi – about 17 hours 6 mins driving to get from Panic, PA to Hope, AR
October 11, 2008 4:38 AM
__________________________
Are we there yet? Are we there yet?
The end is near? You've got to be kidding.
The end has just begun and the end, means THE END.
There will be no fast recovery when the US gorges on $Trillions of debt.
Unless the global leaders have a grand plan to erase zeroes off their simultaneously deflating currencies.
Bush orders FNM FRE to gorge on $40Billion *per month* of toxic debt:
Separate from the $700B package.
The end, the final end has begun.
http://tinyurl.com/4nh4c9
How can there be 'panic' when the average Jane and Joe sixpack don't have a CLUE what the hell is really going on nor how it will affect them down the road?
The only people in 'panic' are the wealthy that are pulling their chips...
I guess we have to look at 'financial panic' and then...the social-political panic that will definitely come after.
Capitulation...not yet and it will happen when 1) the "elections" are canceled and 2) martial law is forcing us to do what the dear leader wants us to do...OBEY.
Glenn Beck spilled the beans this past week when he stated that we're headed towards a 'one world currency' and then the 'new world order'. Look at what the idiot Berlusconi stated...they want to shut down the markets and RE-WRITE the financial rules.
DEBT=SLAVERY and that is the bottom line. The bankers have the governments and now they are coming after the assets...ergo, the HUMAN assets.
I don't know about you, but this is not going to play out like previous situations. This is MUCH bigger and it has been ENGINEERED to happen.
Controlled chaos....
Jan 20th is the day America ceases to be America. Welcome to the USSA comrades.
Don't get overly optimistic Keith. Panic came a little sooner than I thought, but we still have to get through capitulation before we get to the "point of maximum financial opportunity."
I maintain my April 2009 call for across the board bottoms.
I would say "fear" is more appropriate. People are confused still. I hear them say stocks are historically cheap and maybe it's time to buy. We haven't been burned badly enough yet. Dow 4000 they'll wake up. That's a freaking panic.
Keith,
You need to be awarded the nobel Prize for investigative journalism or providing a platform where people could get a fair assessment of the market.
For all your hard work and earnest focus on proselytizing the truth, it would be great if you could compile and journal with timelines and content from your archives and have it published.
Waiting for it to be on the NYT best seller
All the best
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