A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
"How do you feel now that everyone knows?"-----------------Alone, because I knew back when everybody else was still in denial.-Mammoth
Holy Crappers. Oh well, who cares. What'd Sarah Palin have for lunch today. Wonder if it's something I can be outraged about.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJn5b8_weUY
They don't. I received a magazine yesterday from NHH - Norway's top business school - they're calling it a black swan.Anyhow - I am more worried abouth ethnic conflicts as a consequence of mass migration, but even that pales compared to global warming and other enviromental issues.
I WANT NOTHING TO DO WITH THE SHEEP. I JUST WANT TO PROTECT MY FAMILY.I AM GLAD THAT I DIDN'T GO ALONE FOR THE RIDE I AM IN A SAFE PLACE AND I JUST WANT TO BE THE MASTER OF MY OWN SHIP.KEITH TKS FOR SHARING ALL YOUR THOUGHTS WITH US HERE ON THE BLOG. :)
Existing sales up 5.5%. Nothing goes up forever, nothing goes down forever.
For the most part I'm quiet; the reason to speak up was to try to modify what was coming. It's here, and people are depressed, why rub it in? grandma pkk
Believe me, Nobody knows Nothing:AND Bullshit Baffles Brains.The US is a sick and dying AIDS patient. The world would be better off if they just let America DIE.GOP: The Party that KILLED America.DIE U OIGS
Anxious. I have safeguarded my retirement funds, but job losses hit bulls and bears alike.
The truth is, most people still have their heads in the sand as far as what's happening. So I don't think everyone knows. Sure, they saw their 401k go down in value (but they believe it will recover), maybe they know someone who lost a job, but they are still in denial for the most part. Going about their normal life, planning trips, going out to eat all the time. Talk to people, especially younger ones (<35) and mostly what you get is indifference..."what's on Idol?" & "Who is Paris Hilton dating?"
Still cost averaging on the big day drops. Missed today but had no idea what was going to happen. If everyone thinks the world is going to end, it will not...if you think the economy will fail completely? Then your horded money will be worhtless anyway. Might as well go long and reap the rewards that will come in the future. Yeah, I may sound crazy but my time horizion is 30 years and this is stock market is a deal of a lifetime.
I am thankful for this HousingPanic Blog. There is a lot of very good shared speculation on here. I must say speculation because this is the only way information is available to the American Public. someone knows a bit, and shares it here and then it is compared with what someone else knows. We have NO political leadership to HELP us, only to control us. I will always read and comment on this blog. BUT--are we only preaching to the choir? Are the needful people reading this>
Knows what?* That JFK was assassinated by the CIA? * That RFK was assassinated by the CIA?* That MLK was assassinated by the CIA?* That 9/11 was an inside job?
I feel good. no more credit card millionaires.I do not feel sorry for them at all.most people are going to be miserably poor for decades to come,and there's a lot of money to be made off them.I have left my political views behind because it's a waste of time I could be spending making money.things are looking up,at least for me they are...
Everybody knows that the dice are loadedEverybody rolls with their fingers crossedEverybody knows that the war is overEverybody knows the good guys lostEverybody knows the fight was fixedThe poor stay poor, the rich get richThats how it goesEverybody knowsEverybody knows that the boat is leakingEverybody knows that the captain liedEverybody got this broken feelingLike their father or their dog just diedEverybody talking to their pocketsEverybody wants a box of chocolatesAnd a long stem roseEverybody knowsEverybody knows that you love me babyEverybody knows that you really doEverybody knows that youve been faithfulAh give or take a night or twoEverybody knows youve been discreetBut there were so many people you just had to meetWithout your clothesAnd everybody knowsEverybody knows, everybody knowsThats how it goesEverybody knowsEverybody knows, everybody knowsThats how it goesEverybody knowsAnd everybody knows that its now or neverEverybody knows that its me or youAnd everybody knows that you live foreverAh when youve done a line or twoEverybody knows the deal is rottenOld black joes still pickin cottonFor your ribbons and bowsAnd everybody knowsAnd everybody knows that the plague is comingEverybody knows that its moving fastEverybody knows that the naked man and womanAre just a shining artifact of the pastEverybody knows the scene is deadBut theres gonna be a meter on your bedThat will discloseWhat everybody knowsAnd everybody knows that youre in troubleEverybody knows what youve been throughFrom the bloody cross on top of calvaryTo the beach of malibuEverybody knows its coming apartTake one last look at this sacred heartBefore it blowsAnd everybody knows...
"How do you feel now that everybody else knows?"Well, I feel ok. Up until recently, they thought they knew and I was some kind of nutcase. My relatives keep wanting to come over to see what I've done with the house. (I havent done anything and I know they want to see granite and stainless steel)My stock brokering/financial planning brother-in-law gave me this odd quizzical look last Christmas when I said only one word after 20 minutes of his cheery economic outlook: Depression. Actually, mammouth, I feel alone too. I haven't talked to him since! Wonder how he's holding up.
PS: My brother-in-law is a member of the Party that Wrecked America.
I have people trying to borrow money from me now. I have witnessed denial for 4 years now and it's weird now that everybody knows . I use to try to tell people but they treated me like a nut . Its clear that the main stream media is a big influence . To think that people thought that it was a good thing to sell real estate at high prices to greater fools.
Keefer,Are you ready for the new world currency???wait for it.........THE MUNDO!Now seriously, the Pound buys US $1.54 down from $2.10 under a year ago. AUS $ are way down and we all know long term the US dollar is toast.So my question to you Keefer is....When are you going to be trading in your dollars for Pounds, Euro and AUD? Now the US $ and Yen are expensive and the other currencies are cheap. Everything moves in cycles and the USD will go down again.The real question is will the USD keep strengthening or is it time to cash in? Keith, your predictions... please???-Mike
I must agree: nobody knows crap.
I feel....betrayed by my country. I will vote accordingly.
Not everyone knows including Hal the Realtor in Fla.Here is a recent LMAO funny op-ed letter to the Fla. Realtors Assc. Editor,All of the relief talk is about homeowners and the fear of adding another foreclosure to the swollen market. I know there is little sympathy for the investor, but if I go under, there will be three more foreclosures on the market instead of just one. I will pay as long as I can, wrapping hundreds, and in one case over $1,000, around the rent check to make the mortgage payment. But as an honest investor/businessman who went into this thing with modest expectations, some investor relief would help keep stability in the market. Now I’m afraid I shot myself in the foot, because I rented out my own home to stay alive – so now I am truly “only an investor.” – Hal, SarasotaYou know, you just can't make this self-serving greed mongering shit up. Un-Frigging-Believable!
Thanks Keith - I saved my nest egg since I turned HPer two years back.Although I didn't agree with some of your views (Inflation) but you did a great job of showing the direction. Keep it up. Good luck with your book.
Nobody knows here yet, and if they do they don't care. Who's on "American Idol" anyway!
Republicans killed America, and I am a life long Republican, But Obama here comes my vote. End the war, end the torture, end me not having health care.Don't let us down......
Annoyed because the sellers are still deluded in NOVA with their asking prices. Apparently they didn't get the Memo.
Now that everyone knows the public participation phase of the panic begins. Prepare to take a bath perma-bears.
THEY KNOW NOTHING""Send this blog to 5 people you know that are still in denial and watch the feedback you get...THEY WILL ASK IF YOU ARE OK...SINCE YOU ARE SO PESSIMISTIC ON THE ECONOMY/COUNTRY.They are still in " heavy denial" even my Friends that have lost half of their 401K values or shall I say 201K.I feel that only one percent or less of the population even have some sort of a clue that something is going seriously wrong in our country..Just keep watching your Dancing with the Stars. Goodluck Sheeple...
F them all! I put up with their laughter. And now, they started comming to me looking for loans.That's right, F them!
All I know is that blonde on the Great Glams ad on this site is HOT!! Probably implants, but damn, they is fine....
Funny that the few people I spoke out to for years didn't believe me and looked at me like I was a conspiracy nut. Then I got tired and quit talking about it altogether. When it finally came true just like I described, a couple of people commented how accurate I was and that they thought I was full of it back then. I take no satisfaction in watching my friends and family lose their nest eggs, it feels awful to watch. But I know it would feel alot worse if I hadn't protected my portfolio!
My girlfriend and I are on opposite ends of this financial rollercoaster. She thinks she has enough money to weather this storm and, frankly, maybe she does. I've done my best to convince her that this isn't like other "recessions." However, she continues to be skeptical and one night, recently, when I pointed to the TV and said, "everything I've been saying for 5 years is actually happening before our very eyes," she said, "Okay, what have you done to get ready for this?"Well...I couldn't believe it. But I couldn't resist telling her, either.I reminded her that I put the idea of family life on hold. I also explained that I sold my building in DC and I moved my business into my house thus reducing my overhead. I bought big equipment and powerful tools so that we would be on the side of the builders when "it" came back. I worked on my own infrastructure (realizing that the best investment you can make is in yourself). I've stocked up on ammunition, food, water and information about alternative energy. I've also spread "the word" as adamently as I can to anyone who would listen about the impending consequences. I withdrew a significant amounts of cash. I've split a lot of firewood. And most recently, I pulled the trigger, so to speak, and acquired a georgeous, 1 year old black lab to help with security, which was a great decision, regardless.I've also watched on a daily basis as events have unfolded for the worst, almost exactly the way many have suggested it would, all the while wondering how it is people can be so misguided in their ignorance about the future, not actually knowing which side of this conversation is right and who is wrong.Yet, I still know that I haven't done nearly enough to prepare for the amount of turmoil headed our way, and convince myself regularly there will be time to put a more substantial "plan" into action, but can't quite bring myself to spend the thousands of dollars it would take to feel secure, or prepared.I guess, in some strange way, I'm waiting for a more concrete signal (if there is one) than my gut instinct or the words of practicality I read on this blog and others, that everything which seemed so obvious all these years is actually happening or will have the consequences we've all feared. Needlesstosay, I'm not getting much support from my girlfriend and other who still insist, "you're being mellow dramatic."So my question to you, Keith, as well as any bloggers with a serious opinion is: will there be a gradual fade into potential oblivion during which we will be able to "actually" get ready, or do you think the stock market crash, or fall of the dollar, or mass hysteria associated with both, for example will blindside the public and wind up in chaos?I know predicting the future is impossible, but clearly this unwinding of leverage has the potential of doing some serious damage. How much? Who knows? I would simply like to know how fast it will all cave, if it actually goes that way. And, to answer your question above, I hate having read your blog and known about the potential catastrophy, but in addition, not having done more than get some satisfaction watching it unfold (eating popcorn), while all along knowing I needed to do more than a half assed attempt to get ready for it.So...here we are.I, as others have said, wish the best for everyone in advance of that which we're about to endure and can only hope people are more prepared than I am.
Apparently not everyone KNOWS yet. There are people buying houses now thinking they're good deals. Do yourself a favor if you're buying a house, look at the pre-2001 price of that property so you don't end up foreclosing on it because you jumped the gun too early.That's how much the property will eventually be worth before it starts going up in price again. Current prices are still too high, Just rent or stay in your house until prices bottom out around late 2009. Once it bottoms out it'll be there for a while. Plenty of time to shop.
Same as I always do. You win some, you lose some. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.Have some humility folks. You have long been acting like the fools who rubbed their HELOCed vacations in your noses. Now they are looking at you like you looked at them. Are you better than them? Not if you take the low road. You'd be just as impulsive, competitive, and obsessive over how they're doing in relation to you.
@ anonymous 10:16 -"Existing sales up 5.5%. Nothing goes up forever, nothing goes down forever."But deception lasts forever, as long as there is someone there to spin the numbers - truth: existing sales SEASONALLY ADJUSTED up 5.5%. ACTUAL sales numbers from August to September are down 9.6%. Sales prices are down significantly from August to September also. Year-over-year sales prices down by obscene amounts. Year-over-year sales numbers for September are up. BUT, that only means that sales numbers are up since Sept. '07, which was the worst Sept on record. Sept. '08 is now officially the second worst sales volume on record. Still WELL below the average September sales volumes for the last 20 years.Yes, nothing goes down forever, but the economy fundamentals (home prices, unemployment rate, etc.) still have a long way to go before this can turn back up again. And so we wait for this upside-down world to return to normal...
adctually it kinda blows. backm then we knew what was coming and were the few "enlightened" ones.Quite hoenstly i dont know what is gonna happen now. total meltdown, recovery.....no idea where to put my money right now.
As Yard Sales Boom, Sentiment Is First Thing to Gofrom the NYTimes:"MANTECA, Calif. — As the classified ads put it, everything must go. Socks. Christmas ornaments. Microwave ovens. Three-year-old Marita Duarte’s tricycle was sold by her mother, Beatriz, to a stranger for $3 even as her daughter was riding it."http://tinyurl.com/5sdcqp
Here in Canada, people still don't see it.But I was alone on the way up and I expect to be alone on the way down as:1. They'll only remember me as the extremist or oddball but won't remember my recommendations.2. Those who'll remember my words will avoid me.3. They'll be comforting eachother with: "How could we have known" while I wont be able to share their pain.
Buying stocks via "dollar cost averaging" is just a fancy way of saying "I'm going to keep buying stock and hope like hell it goes up in the long run", which if you wait long enough it probably will (assuming the company yo9u're buying doesn't declare bankruptcy).
How do you feel now that everyone knows?I feel like a whole bunch of lame people barged into my private club. It was more fun when saying something like "housing is a terrible investment" would get people all riled up. Now that everyone wants to talk about it and give you the opinion they formed after watching a ten minute segment on CNN, it's sort of boring.
Talk to people, especially younger ones (<35) and mostly what you get is indifference..."what's on Idol?" & "Who is Paris Hilton dating?"I don't talk to old people about politics. It's pointless. They're usually completely out of touch. For some reason, when it gets to the part where I say "I have no intention of working so that you can retire and get free money and medical care each month" such conversations go particularly badly.
Anonymous said... Same as I always do. You win some, you lose some. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.Have some humility folks. You have long been acting like the fools who rubbed their HELOCed vacations in your noses. Now they are looking at you like you looked at them. Are you better than them? Not if you take the low road. You'd be just as impulsive, competitive, and obsessive over how they're doing in relation to you.October 25, 2008 8:16 AMGood and valid point, but I am still can't help feeling angry both for the last few years, but moreover for the mess those idiots brought us in.I'll keep your words in mind though.
I love all the talk about how the GOP ruined America.... Both parties did it. Both parties have been corrupted and are bought-and-paid for. Despite promises to help the middle class, both parties have actively engaged in policies to take from the middle class to give to their friends and voting base. Don't be fooled by empty promises.
Anon 6:24 AM asks…“So my question to you, Keith, as well as any bloggers with a serious opinion is: will there be a gradual fade into potential oblivion during which we will be able to "actually" get ready, or do you think the stock market crash, or fall of the dollar, or mass hysteria associated with both, for example will blindside the public and wind up in chaos?”- - - - - - - - - - -Right now it seems we are on the slippery slope down; i.e. the ‘gradual fade’ you referred to. But what happens if some sort of a ‘trigger event’ occurs?This could be in the form of another domestic terror attack, an assassination, a new war, a horrific natural disaster, or perhaps a sudden worldwide exit from the dollar.The fact that there have been no major events (other than the financial crisis) has me suspiciously wondering if the next shoe is about to drop.But to answer your question, ask yourself this question: “What would I do if TSHTF, and the power goes out but never comes back on?”How would you obtain food & water? How would you cook your food? How could you light your home and stay warm this winter? How would you defend your family against all the armed ‘crazies’ that will come out of the woodwork if the police are no longer functioning? What practical skills do you have, that may be shared with the community? Can you work with metal and/or wood? What do you know about gardening? Do you know how to preserve food? Can you take care of farm animals? Do you hunt?Sorry if these are uncomfortable questions. But they do give one pause to think. Today you still have time to prepare – THAT’S what the $700B bailout bought you.But tomorrow things may change.-Mammoth
Ola Dunk,I agree. I had people throw up in my face new 50k truck cars etc… vacations telling me how dumb I was not to take advantage of the money I earned in equity. Those morons actually thought they were entitled. Hey jerks how does it feel to pay for a 50,000 truck on a 30-year amortization now idiots!… Oh it’s useless they don’t even know what that means.
The average American has no concept of the freight train headed their way. I work with a bunch of 20-something college graduates. They don't remember the 2001 non-recession. (I graduated into the 1975 recession.) I tell them stories they just can't comprehend. They've never stood in a line with 5,000 people to fill out a futile job application. (I did in the 1981 recession. Apparently my future wife, who I met years later, was in the same line!) They don't believe you can be laid off and not find work for 2 years. I tell them I stayed at Jack-in-the Box for 3 years because there was no other work. Blank stares. They especially get mad when I suggest they'll be at their current job for years (if they are lucky). There's two complete generations that have never seen even moderately hard times. And they, with their $40K college loans, are going to be really pissed.
COMPARABLY NICE HOUSE IN A SO-SO NEIGHBORHOOD FOR SALE TODAY AT A PRICE THAT PAINS ME NONE TO BUY AS A CASH BUYER AND A FEW MORE IN THE AREA AT LESS THAN ONE YEARS AVERAGE AVERAGE WAGE...............FREEDOM?????????????????/
SUCH GOOD PRICES MAKES ME WANT TO SCREW RENTERS AND ENSLAVE PEASANTS
But I was alone on the way up and I expect to be alone on the way down as:1. They'll only remember me as the extremist or oddball but won't remember my recommendations.2. Those who'll remember my words will avoid me.3. They'll be comforting each other with: "How could we have known" while I wont be able to share their pain.Exactly.
"...I love all the talk about how the GOP ruined America..."Me too; substituting Democrats for GOP"... Both parties did it..."They sure did. A more cynical person might think there are some serious shortcomings with our system.
Mamoth,You rock! Can I come and stay at your place when TSHTF?:)
Sad. Sure I saved my 401K - cashed it out bright and early, and paid off my home and my rental property, bought physical silver, weapons, ammo, food, a vegetable garden, and put a lot of effort into insulating my home, backup energy, etc. I have young pullets (chickens) in my garage waiting for spring, when they will go into the backyard permanently. On the other hand, my brother bought in SF this summer, despite all I could say, and his pension is tied up with the State of California. And I lost my job two weeks ago. I have good skills and liquidity, I have my eye on some likely prospects, and my partner has a job that looks likely to continue, but nobody, nobody is going to be unaffected in this one. And like Biden, I expect that some *&(# will "test" Obama early next year. Russia or Iran, I presume, unless the year starts with Israel bombing Iran instead. Either way its not going to be good.
I was sitting in a Uni class today that I help teach and the professor was using the current financial trouble as an example of an unforseenable event. He said, "No one knew six months ago that we would be in this situation." He did not seem too happy when I said, "I did, in fact, it was probably more like 2 years ago." Poor dude cannot retire now and will have to stay in the job for 5 more years to make up what he lost in the past 3months. Sadly, his inability to retire, along with all the others like him, will mean that I will have a harder time getting a job in a year.
I always feel very carefully.
I'm relieved to find others who think about this like me. I've been buying food, learning how to use solar energy, how to turn creek water into drinking water, buying seeds (winter and summer veggies), etc. I agree the bailout is buying time to prepare. I think there will also be a swift decline. I see the writing on the wall, but I also have some hope it won't happen. I've been trying to sell my house before it's upside down. I will buy when housing is at its pre-2001 value or after we are in a normal period. Pricing may even go lower than pre-2001 for a short-term period. If I can't sell, I'm good for two years on retirement savings. (I pulled out of the market when the DOW was at 11,000). Lots of other pre-emptive moves too. If this is too much preparation, I will be living a more sustainable life, e.g. solar water heating. Most friends think I'm going overboard and it pains me to hear that because I don't want to see them suffer and I will barely have enough for me, though I won't turn them away for shelter. The company will be nice in hard times, they can garden and some of them have great construction skills and guns for protection. And I have my dog too. (Don't forget to buy food for your pets, dogs especially. Cats can catch a lot of mice, but your dog may eat you if hungry.)
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