I wasn't around in 1929 - 1933 when US Steel last collapsed, so seeing a chart like this in present time amazes me.
Seeing a chart like this also leads me to believe that nobody alive will EVER trust the stock market again.
90 days.. That's all it took for the financial world to end.
If this chart is to be believed, we'll never build another home. We'll never produce another car. We'll never open another factory. We'll never construct another bridge.
If you believe this chart, then you must assume not just a second Great Depression, but something even worse.
US Steel, and most of the companies around the world, after the worst month in stock market history, are trading like the end of the world is now here.
And maybe it is.
This is getting really, really ugly now.
October 27, 2008
Here's the 90 day chart for US Steel, which has collapsed 82% in the past few weeks. So, is the end of the world now here?
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55 comments:
Keith,
Seriously. This thing is amazing. I don't think we'll see anything like this in our lifetimes ever again. I think we would kind of welcome a bit of inflation just about now.
This ship is about to go under.
Dny
We ain't done yet. In 1929, US Steel was a bellweather company. Now it is just another company. X and MT are looking stupid cheap, but the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Wait until after the election when the media doesn't have a soap opera to cover and those October 401(k) start coming to a mailbox near you. There are still a lot of people who don't understand what has happened or what could happen. When they open their mail, we'll go from fear to desperation.
The front line businesses are falling, but this first blast has not fully cycled through the economy yet. As it cycles, that's when the unemployment will hit. In the 2000 crash, 2001 and 2002 were the bad reduction years for businesses.
Only 82% decline to date? We have a ways to go before reaching a real bottom in the markets. When Obama finishes administering his "financial justice", the only steel available in this country will come from scrap yards.
Why are HPers so surprise. Isn't this what you predicted? Isn't this what you wanted? Well you got it! Prepare for the Salvages that will roam the streets!
Why not believe the chart? The market is rigged and the PPT is installed like clockwork each day at 1PM PST.
-America doesn't build anything worth having any more. (GM and Ford can merge and call the new company ChevFord). Chrysler is dead, just will not fall over yet. (Another 90 days should do it.)
-America has no trained skilled workers left or in training that can/will produce anything other than debt, hamburgers, websites and phony made-up wars and politicos (like Palin...)
-America has no factory infrastructure left operating. (Re-watch Roger & Me and times the misery index X 20. Google Flint, MI and watch the devastation if you dare).
-America has no legitamate government left operating.(Bushco-Cheneyburton legitamate?)
-American media is owned by a few wizards-of-oz old rich men standing naked behind the curtain. (Yeah, I identify with Murdoch and Turner and Pickens, et. al. I think NOT)
-Warren Buffet and Bill Gates are revered like Gods. (Who would have thunk THAT? Bill Gates a Hero?)
What does America need steel production for? Americans don't even like iron in their diet. They have substituted lead from China...
-The stock market is rigged, corrupt and dishonest. (Think Paulson and Bernanke)
-American economy is a giant ponzi scheme endless loop made for suckers. (Think Mozilo-Countrywide and Cheney-Halliburton)
Anyone involved with Wall Street or Banking are LOWER than used-house-peddlers, commonly titled 'Realtors" which is the most dishonest rouge ponzi scheme ever invented. (Think Scary DeGroot, Caveman Adkins, Louse Lereah and Useless Yun)
America is DEAD. We deserve everything that is coming. It is ALL BAD for A LONG TIME.
October Surprise Anyone? Got Ammo?
DIE U PIGS.
I don't see us building skyscrapers and nuclear aircraft carriers out of trees anytime soon ..
I guess investors finally figured out that its a silly gamble to finance investments with debt.
"I don't think we'll see anything like this in our lifetimes ever again...."
Uh, yes, the "end of the world" would certainly guarantee this.
The only steel will be in scrapyards?
And in my guns.
There is going to be a bubble in
AR15 assault rifles if Obama and the dems take control.
A 1994 assault rifle ban will take place except this time they will not target SKS's and AK's like they did in 1994; this time it is the AR15. When the assault weapons ban took place SKS's, AK's, and the ammo doubled in price.
I could see something similar happen to AR's or "black rifle" as the proponents of gun bans call them.
I'm not saying you need to hoard guns and ammo and that the world is going to collapse so we should get bio suits and nuke detectors. No.
I am saying that that there is potential to make some money here by buying guns.
Just a thought.
1929??? Try 2003 with this stock. http://tinyurl.com/62dwxo
I don't understand how everyone around me can be acting like everything is ok. Where the hell is all of this "optimism" coming from?? Are these people on fucking drugs or something!?
Is that really any indicator. The steel industry in this country is way past its heyday. Like "silly wabbit" said, its just another company.
Now if WalMart's stock chart looked like that, then I would start worrying. You need a better company to model disaster on Keith.
One of my Grandpas worked at Chase Brass in Cleveland, and the other worked at Pipe Machinery. Two jobs that have been long gone in this country. Their hard work and resulting largess, was the very thing that allowed me to get a college degree.
In one respect I so wish they were here to talk to about what is going on, In another, I'm glad they are not here to witness & experience the carnage.
I want my mommy.
"America is DEAD. We deserve everything that is coming. It is ALL BAD for A LONG TIME."
Someone didn't take their Zoloff this morning.
I'm long on gun and ammo mfrs:
Washington Post -- Gun Sales Thriving In Uncertain Times
Americans have cut back on buying cars, furniture and clothes in a tough economy, but there's one consumer item that's still enjoying healthy sales: guns. Purchases of firearms and ammunition have risen 8 to 10 percent this year, according to state and federal data.
Gun purchases have been climbing because of the worsening economy, which fuels fears of crime and civil disorder, industry sources and specialists said.
http://tinyurl.com/5vyybs
Like I said many times here before, if you don't have a Bug-Out Bag (BOB) prepared, you're a moron. Zombie invasion ain't sh!t on what's coming.
.
I want your mommy to!
.
It certainly isn't a good sign to see that kind of stock price chart at a very old and well established company. I think it's important to keep in mind that the steel companies were enjoying an extraordinary run until recently thanks to the commodity boom which has now run its course. I think it's also of note that if stocks can't be trusted, that takes away some of the rationale of savings. I agree that people should be a lot more thrifty than they have. Unfortunately, once they have accumulated some money, then they are going to have to find some place to keep it and/or invest it in. If the whole mortgage backed securities/derivatives scam completely blows up, it will probably take a large portion of the country's banks with it, FDIC insurance notwithstanding. Witness the situation in Iceland where the thrifty are suffering the most of any members of society.
I read that we're moving to lighter metals so steel is yesterday's metal. a friend is investing in aluminum since construction is moving that way.
I see a screaming buy opportunity there. As the coming dollar collapse will force the USA to start producing its own goods again, companies like US Steel should do well. Sure, it could go to $20, but if it's going to be back at $100 in a couple of years, do you really care to time the exact bottom?
Eh, it's spelled zolofT, you idiot! (ahis from someone who takes it like it's candy!)
http://tinyurl.com/2gx8gh
LoneLibertarian:
Uh, actually Obama wants a permanent "assault weapons" ban. This includes everything from Tech-9's and Mac-10's to AK's AR's and SKS's. The 2nd Amendment is about to be castrated and pussified.
In other words, DO hoard guns and ammo.
Too many extremists out there.
I was in the Aluminum industry in the late 70's, early 80's when Al prices plunged. Alcoa suffered but they laid off all union and white collar labor at several Aluminum Reduction plants, cut off supply of all raw materials and reduced supply just like OPEC does today. During that time period, they always paid a dividend and came back strong. After all, the world needs aluminum. Just look at the beer, soda or canned goods you are buying. Alcoa just took it out of the hide of its workers. This literally evaporated the local economies, where the shut plants were located. It's always the little guys who get hurt. The big guys usually survive. So will US Steel.
That's why the bailout is a mistake. The big guys would have found a way out, albeit the left and right coasts would be searching for food or goods. Maybe that would have been better for the country?
It's not that big of a deal. US Steel was 9.83 in 2003 at the start of the boom so it's not like it's the first time it's ever happened in recent times.
It's a cyclical bellweather is all it is.
Thanks for pointing this stock out, once things bottom out I'll definitely buy me some X and I don't mean ecstacy ;)
Yep, no one's ever going to buy food, energy, or soap ever again. People in China and India are going to go back to living in mud huts. Europe is simply going to collapse into a new stone age. Stocks, houses, commodities, and the US economy are finished for the rest of your lifetime. The only things worth having will be greenbacks and 30-year US treasuries yielding less than 4%.
Yep, sounds about right. Or maybe there's an infinitesimal chance that what we are seeing is behaviour just as irrational as was seen during the recent bubbles. Time will tell.
"America is DEAD. We deserve everything that is coming. It is ALL BAD for A LONG TIME."
Very true. I don't think we all deserve to die. I do think 95% of the realators "industry" racket should die. Realthores calling their racket an industry when it is about the furthest thing from adding value to anything.
The end of the world? We should be so lucky. No, just another depression. Like the one in 29. And the ones before that. No fun at all, but hardly the end of the world.
.
I'm only jumping back in the market when DOW hits 5,500. All cash since Mar 2007, renting oceanfront condo since 2005. Dollar cost averaging, emerging markets, and knife catching are for fools who will retire in poverty!
.
Why are HPers so surprise. Isn't this what you predicted? Isn't this what you wanted? Well you got it! Prepare for the Salvages that will roam the streets!
Yes, and we're prepared. Are you?
I got chills down my back.... Swear to God.
The DOW will crash on Nov 5th, all hell breaks loose on Nov 6th.
Maybe it's time we remembered who we "Americans" really are. We are the poor, huddled masses, the wretched refuse of teeming shores. We are the outlaws, the outcast, the rebels and rejects of many other societies. Why are we so surprised to now find that our 'culture' has been based on grift and graft all along? This is who we are. This is what we do. We are gypsies, tramps and thieves. Yeah buddy! And our grift and graft served us well, as long as the ponzi schemes which are our birthright were succeeding. But when it finally plays itself out - as all criminal stories do - we are shocked, shocked! How could this happen to such a great society?
It's because, at the end of the day, we are just gypsies, tramps and thieves. Oh, and Snapper Turtles. Indeed.
God Bless America.
You better buy your guns and ammo now because Hussein, prime minister Pelosi, and the rest of radical Marxists running wild in Congress will ban them in 2009. They'll take the 2nd Amend. to wipe their arse with it. Then the bruttas will break into your house to have a hot date with your wife or daughter, while you throw Korans and Che Guevara pictures at them. Just happens to other people, right? Say that to 26-year old News anchor Anne Pressly, who was beaten to death in Ark. recently.
"Someone didn't take their Zoloff this morning."
More importantly, theyre not fucking sharing.
The US slashed it's wrists years ago. We've be bleeding out ever since. The transfusions are over and we are about to flat line.
"
Now if WalMart's stock chart looked like that, then I would start worrying. You need a better company to model disaster on Keith."
Yep. A company that actually produced the materials and employed the people this country was built on is much less important than the sell out anti-American company that sells us overpriced crap made in china.
Actually, I think you have provided a perfect explanation.
See link below for in interesting article arguing that stock prices are not even really all that cheap, even now.
http://tinyurl.com/64dzs8
There was a stock bubble in the late 1990's that was only partially deflated in 2000. Greenspan dropped the interest rate and the bubble was reflated.
Stocks need earnings to justify their prices - this is the key fundamental of stock valuation.
And earnings are continuing to fall so, just to maintain these p/e ratios stock prices would have to fall.
That's not to say stock prices definitely will fall because every branch and instrument of government and quasi-government is behind expanding the money supply in one bubble or another. The next bubble can't be real estate - stocks? Biotech stocks? Health care?
Prepare for the Salvages that will roam the streets!
------------------------------
hmmm, trying to form a mental image...
nope.
What type of salvage did you have in mind. boat? car?
DXD
buy it. now.
Friend calls me tonight and asks if she should buy Ford (F) stock at $2.00/share. She thinks it's a bargain. Her reasoning is sound that if the govt bails out the automakers with $25BB loans each, their stock price should rise. I told her if the stock rises to $6.00/share, that just means the dollar has lost 2/3 of it's value. She couldn't understand.
I told her to call Bernanke.
"America is DEAD. We deserve everything that is coming. It is ALL BAD for A LONG TIME."
Someone didn't take their Zoloff this morning.
I have some extra I've been hoarding if anyone needs it! My new investment strategy revolves around it actually, I have modified buy-and-hold to snort-buy-and-hold-and-snort-again. You should give it a shot.
Not the end of the world, just the end of cheap fucking credit. Don't let the door hit Wall Street in the ass on the way out.
It will get cut in half or more again. X traded around $10 as recently as March 2003.
Holy crap Keith.. I was just thinking the same thing today when I was looking at the chart of US Steel.
And yes you are correct in saying.. Sheeple will never trust the the stock market and the idiots on wallstreet Again
Anonymous said...
Why not believe the chart? The market is rigged and the PPT is installed like clockwork each day at 1PM PST......
October Surprise Anyone? Got Ammo?
Check.
JaneZ
Isn't true that when commodity price drops after a stock market correction then it reinforce that a recession is coming.
The steel industry depends on the automotive industry (and did so in 1929). When automotive numbers seem depressed for a long time, as they are do now, steel would be less in demand.
But I thought you said it was time to buy.....
BUY BUY BUY...When Hussein gets elected, his "spreading of wealth" will make sales of Escalade rims to skyrocket. It takes lots of steel and aluminum to make those bad boys. Imagine you working your arse off and paying taxes to the teeth, so welfare parasites can buy $2k rims for their Escalades and Camrys. Enjoy your retirement in poverty.
ok, i'm dumb (and have been too busy to keep up with your awesome blog lately keith). what are X and MT?
Anon October 27, 2008 11:09 PM (a.k.a. we don't make anything, we don't have any skilled workers, blah blah):
Dump YouTube and try reading something, you dolt. The United States is the world's largest manufacturer! What about that do you not understand.
You are a tool of the liberal left - Michael Moore and Obama love chumps like you. You spew falsehoods you hear without bothering to check them. You stir up an angry segement of the population - non-thinkers who lack self-sufficiency.
You like to compare anyone disagreeing with you to Hitler, but actually you are being led in the very same fashion - keep 'em dumb, keep 'em mad.
Crazy that this company ever came back from the dead in the first place.
Hmmmm, wasn't Cramer pumping Nucor just last week?
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=NUE#symbol=NUE;range=6m
I believe the thinks it's best-of-breed.
X = US Steel
MT = Acelor Mittal
Both are large steel companies.
Then the bruttas will break into your house to have a hot date with your wife or daughter, while you throw Korans and Che Guevara pictures at them. Just happens to other people, right? Say that to 26-year old News anchor Anne Pressly, who was beaten to death in Ark. recently.
I thought that was racist as hell until local sheriff stopped in my store to pick up some warrants I had to sign to collect bad checks, been getting to damn many lately.
I asked him about the case, and while he wouldn't give specifics, he did say that even if he new nothing about it he could tell by the way the case was being handled who the perp was.How I asked. Simple. they know what the sob looks like bcause he was stupid enough to use the slain girls credit card at a gas station 30 min after the crime in full view of video cameras. Since the police won't release the description means the perp is either black.....protected class, dont wanna be accused of prejudice.....or upper middle class white....maybe jilted boyfriend,possibly with position and connections. Both have to be handled with kid gloves.Sheriff went on to explain that if the slayer had been poor white, arab, or mexican his camera photo would have been all over the news. Since we can assume that anybody upper middle class,white black,whatever, has enough education and common sense not to use a stolen credit card after a violent crime in front of a damn camera, that pretty much narrows it down.Shame that a racist remark was right, but for the wrong reasons.
Hope they nail the sob. She was a nice kid.
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