October 05, 2008

Fear, Desperation and in many cases Panic are now here. There's no denying it now. So, starting tomorrow, where do we go from here?

Get out your crystal balls and get on record now. What happens now?

Everywhere I looked this weekend, the Great Housing Panic and Credit Crisis were everywhere. It's all anyone wants to talk about. It's all over the TV and in the MSM. And there seems to be universal agreement that the whole house of cards is collapsing, and we're going to enter a severe worldwide recession if not depression.

Hmmm... everyone thinking the same thing... hmmm... where have we seen that before...

So, is this a classic sign of a bottom? When all hope and all trust is gone? When all the stocks that could be sold are sold? When everyone who could be is in cash? When people are disgusted by houses and stocks? When pessimism is all you hear?

Or, is this still the real deal? Then end of capitalism as we knew it? The start of the American Going out of Business Sale? And the entry to The Greatest Depression?

Have at it. Predict the next few weeks, months and years. Where do we go from here?




80 comments:

Jeffrey said...

jeffolie prediction...government buying empty houses

Among the jeffolie predictions, one appears to have a European start. The prediction made was that the US government would buy the empty houses in The Crisis in The Fall of 2009. Well the French have gotten the flavor of this idea:

----------------------------------------------------------------
Morningstar is reporting, France To Buy 30,000 Planned Homes To Boost Building Business.


President Nicolas Sarkozy, grappling with the global financial crisis, has decided to directly support the French construction industry by buying 30,000 homes waiting to be built, the presidential palace said Wednesday.

"So that current property programs can be successfully concluded, the president...has decided to intervene directly, ordering the purchase at discounted prices of houses on which building work has not yet begun," a statement said.

This move will initially cover 30,000 homes, and by ensuring that they will be built, the decision will support the homebuilding industry, it said.

http://news.morningstar.com/newsnet/ViewNews.aspx?article=/DJ/200810011450DOWJONESDJONLINE000712_univ.xml

keith said...

Germany just guaranteed all deposits in all banks

Every country in the world will now have to do the same

Got printing press?

Batman said...

No panic yet. I think the bailout is a good sign of desperation, but no, panic and capitulation are not here yet.

As we move to a centrally planned soviet style command economy, I wonder what rules apply. Can they replace panic with a few decades of corrupt stagnation and black market dominated decay?

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

I see the headlines today that European governments are scrambling to save all the failing banks over there.

So much for the douchebag trolls on this site who say America needs to be more like Europe....

keith said...

Over here its panic. I read in the times today a story about a condo complex in canary wharf in london where 43 of the 45 units are now in foreclosure, and asking prices are down 40%.

Germany just issued blanket coverage for all deposits, so now the UK will HAVE to do that do or face bank runs tomorrow.

Watch the EU and UK do an emergency rate cut tomorrow too.

It's getting ugly here quick. Really quick.

I expect Bernanke to cut .50 tomorrow as well.

Get popcorn.

And understand how important how being "liquid" is right now, no matter which way this goes next

sandman said...

You're right. This is getting much more air time now. And we've been saying it for years.

We're not at bottom yet. Unfortunately, I'm afraid we're not even close.

J6P and JLB is still in the Fear stage (although other folks are in Panic).

As soon as job losses mount, people will cut back even more spending. And the death spiral as you labeled it will ensue.

Then we will have Panic.

DOW will drop at least another 20%.

Europe will be interesting to watch. A loose federation of states/nations that have several distinct cultures. Reminds me of pre-Civil War US. There will be tests there as the carnage ensues - States Rights vs. Federal Rights.

See John C. Calhoun and give a think about it.

I'm not predicting Civil War there. I'm just saying someone gonna want off the bus. And who will that be and will they be told thy can't get off the EU bus - that will be interesting....

BTW... how many members of congress do you think have drastically changed their 401Ks and saving in the past 2 weeks?

Anonymous said...

German crash monday am. Pan european by pm. Global by am EST.

Here we go. Got silver gold guns - not the paper versions of any!

Anonymous said...

seriously, what planet do you people live on?

i was at the mall this morning and i had to park on the 3rd deck, way in the back. place was freaking packed. and this was on beautiful day with temps in the 80s.

some panic...all the way to the mall to shop.

DOPES!

steely damn said...

Still denial here at zip 81503. RE people saying the market is improving, houses are selling again, and now that the feds have bailed out the banks, mortgage wine will be overflowing their cups again real soon. The state, county, school district, and city are spending money like drunken sailors, and they have multiple referenda on next month's ballot asking for higher taxes to pay for $600M in new spending initiatives!

No fear here, just pure denial. I feel like I'm in a Twilight Zone episode.

sandman said...

Here's a link to think through the EU situation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nullification_Crisis

Paul E. Math said...

The misallocations of resources are real. This downturn is not just psychologically driven. However, psychology will play a role.

"There is a growing consensus among economists that any bail-out based on Paulson's plan won't work. If so, the huge increase in the national debt and the realisation that even $700bn is not enough to rescue the US economy will erode confidence further and aggravate its weakness." - Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel prize winning economist

I'm not a fan of Stiglitz and the large role he sees for government in the economy but I think he's right on this one.

gwk said...

Why don't we all just kill ourselves and be done with it because it is all over at least that is what I am told by this blog and many others but wait Obama will fix everything so I should wait it out problem is I was an adult when Carter was going to fix everything and we all know he was a complete failure so history will tell the story, by the way the Dunkin near my home is filled every day no recession in there.

patrat said...

I have the feeling we are getting pretty close to capitulation. Especially if the market takes a dive tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

Keith, when you say 'liquid' should I pull money out of the bank or just have <$100k per institution?

keith said...

Under the FDIC is fine as long as you can go without your cash for a few weeks or months

That said, it's good to have some safe cash around, in case the FDIC won't pay soon enough, or the ATMs don't work because the bank was closed and the people who run the ATMs got laid off

I can't believe it's come to this.

Oh, wait, yes, I can believe it's come to this.

Anonymous said...

Months ago I put everything I got into ING. I'm happy I'm making lots of interest, but how safe is anything right now. Panic is at our doorstep if not already underway. EVERYONE I know is getting nailed. People can't sleep at night. I see long standing marriages straining, kids can't go to college now, and most of all , I see a deep growing depression of spirit. I'm sensing the real deal here. I pray it's not. I think the lucky folks right now are the poor who really don't care what's going on. They have nothing to lose, and have nothing to be afraid of.

born to lose said...

This all has been happening with low unemployment.

When, (not if) unemployment soars, thats when panic starts.

When employees begin to realize that they need a job way more than their boss needs them, and that they were fortunate to have a job for the last decades, they will not know what to do.

We will look back on 2008 as the good old days.

k.w. - Southern Ca. said...

The economy will get much worse, housing will continue to plummet, more jobs will be lost (they estimate that 1 out of 3 people in the remaining financial industry will be laid off in the next 5-7 years).

We're really just getting started with the really big losses, subprime was just a scratch on the surface.

solutions, solutions, solutions said...

WHAT AMERICA NEEDS IS MORE THAN A BANK BAIL-OUT, IT NEEDS A PLAN AND FAST!

The mess we are in right now in America is that we are spending too much and not taxing enough. We are an unprofitable business with a balance sheet that is starting to worry our creditors and investors. If you could short America, the sharks in the market would be all over that trade. We are not much better than Lehman, Bear, Merrill, Wachovia, and Wamu.

We have global ambitions that we cannot afford but we still pretend we can. (Bush and Cheney)

We have tax revenues that do not cover our spending. And we don’t have the will to cut our spending. And in many cases, we cannot afford to cut our spending. We should not cut our spending on infrastructure, we should increase it.

We should not cut our spending on finding cleaner and smarter forms of energy, we should increase it. We should not cut our spending on education, we should increase it. We should not live with the terrible health care system we currently have, we should fix it. And we continue to spend money on things like tax breaks for oil companies and subsidies for farmers that mystify me and most Americans.

And we spend a lot of money fighting vices like drugs, prostitution, and gambling when we should simply legalize them, tax them, and regulate them and turn them into a profit center.
*****************************
Arresting American pot smokers at present cost the US Taxpayers $60 BILLION PER YEAR!

THATS: - $60,000,000,000 PER YEAR!

We are run not just by monkeys, but by as*holes and idiots who dont give a f*ck about the USA and its citizens. \\ TRUE FACT

I'm PISSED!!!!!!

k.w. - Southern Ca. said...

When I hear about the city, state and county workers continually asking for more of their own bail-outs, you just have to laugh.

I might get some flames on this one, but if we cut out the pork within these tax-payer funded job areas, we'll be making some progress towards resolving our budget problems.

A good example of that is hear right in HB Ca., we have many policemen and firemen who spend more time eating at the restuarants on mainstreet, flirting with women and washing their fire trucks - we don't need people like this who are nothing but a burden on the tax-payer and continually ask for better wages and benefits.

It's time we cut out the pork across the board, our private industry sector is really hurting now, and they're the real backbone of this economy. When they go, this country is finished.


steely damn said...
Still denial here at zip 81503. RE people saying the market is improving, houses are selling again, and now that the feds have bailed out the banks, mortgage wine will be overflowing their cups again real soon. The state, county, school district, and city are spending money like drunken sailors, and they have multiple referenda on next month's ballot asking for higher taxes to pay for $600M in new spending initiatives!

No fear here, just pure denial. I feel like I'm in a Twilight Zone episode.

Anonymous said...

Before every significant change in the history of human events there were those who were too afraid to accept the sitiuation they were facing. They instead chose to ignore or even prevent others from seeing what was necessary at the time to avoid the danger.

Those people had multiple motivations of which preservation of one's own wealth and sheer denial are probably the top two on the list (not to mention covering one's ass in the non financial sense i.e. making sure you don't get beheaded or face the pitch-forked crowds of peasants).

Now you are all asking "What's next?"

And your collective answers range from doing nothing - to hoarding food, seeds, stocking up on ammo etc.

But all of your answers fail to recognise that this situation requires a completely different human effort on all our parts.

This situation requires all of humanity to take a step back from the ever-faster churning gears of the global system and collectively ask ourselves what is our true purpose on this earth?

It is really just to earn, spend, borrow, steal and create money out of thin air?

Or is there some other higher goal we should all strive for?

Don't fear the big change coming. Embrace the breaking of the chains that bind us all. This has been our jail for every single one of us. None have ever seen a way of life different.

Now is the time to truly stop the machinery of our own making and go down many millions and billions of different roads all of us separate but yet collectively bound.

As we all walk "alone" we will all discover many things. Humans by nature are not inclined to live and work together but for the necessitiy.

What do prisoners do when the jail walls are broken open? Do they all group together and run away?

Or do they all go their separate ways?

Our futures are much brighter than you believe.

Good luck to you all and whatever you do, don't get on the path of religion. It always leads you away from the truth.

Your's sincerely,

Ceiling Cat

k.w. - Southern Ca. said...

Unemployment is already soaring, in September alone we had a minimum of 165,000 layoffs.

I guess "soaring" is relative.
When we hit 200,000/month perhaps we can term unemployment as soaring.

Without employees, employers will also be looking for work. Without good workers who are paid fair wages, no business will last for long.


born to lose said...
This all has been happening with low unemployment.

When, (not if) unemployment soars, thats when panic starts.

When employees begin to realize that they need a job way more than their boss needs them, and that they were fortunate to have a job for the last decades, they will not know what to do.

We will look back on 2008 as the good old days.

Anonymous said...

http://tinyurl.com/4oqq54

I love this comment

------

I wish I could say I can't believe the arrogance of people who would extort close to a trillion dollars by taking the American people hostage and threatening them with utter economic collapse, and then walk away because they can't just keep it for themselves...but I can.

-

"Dammit, we're close to economic disaster. Give me one of your kidneys."

"But I need my kidney."

"Didn't you hear me? If you don't sell one of your kidneys the entire country may completely fall apart."

"You're an addict and I don't believe you. No, you can't have my kidney."

"THE WORLD IS ENDING RIGHT NOW IF YOU DON'T GIVE ME ONE OF YOUR KIDNEYS GODDAMMIT!"

"OK! OK! *cutting sound* Oh God, that hurt...all right, here's my kidney. Just don't sell it for hookers and drugs."

"What?! Ahh, then fuck it."

*splat of kidney hitting the floor*

*door slams*

ICEMAN said...

Hey Keith,

I believe we are at the doorstep of massive cutbacks in the local, county, and state governments throughout the entire country. They are going to be begging for a bailout but the door will suprisingly go unanswered.

There is nobody that will be able to handle the massive amounts of money needed to subdue these problems. The U.S. is only trying to quell the situation for a short period of time.

ICEMAN

Anonymous said...

Going out in the 13104 zip code is so bizarre after this week and all its craziness. Shopping: Lines 10 people long although I'm not sure why there were only 2 cashiers on a Friday. The store did have a Help Wanted sign up. 3 restaurants next to Y all jam packed. Even the place with $10 hamburgers.

Houses are sporting sold signs all over the place. How can people buy in this unstable environment? Are they all deep pocketed retirees? One RE from a lakeside town blogged that she sold one home based on a client pulling everything from the stock market and putting it into the much more stable RE. That ought end well. (Eye roll)

Anonymous said...

.


Germany has economic/financial problems???


Where's heir Hitler when you need him?


.

sundry vermin said...

Dallas Morning News op-ed by Rod Dreher, The speech that McCain should make. Actually I think either of them could take this opportunity.

>Washington has run from the truth. Wall Street has run from the truth. And if we're honest with ourselves, all of us have, in one way or another, run from the truth.

>We have accepted the lie that we can live exactly as we want to live, with no concern for the consequences. We have taken the blessings of liberty and prosperity and turned them into a curse of debt slavery - bondage that will be visited on our children, and our children's children, if we don't change.

>Everybody has a theory about how we got into this mess, and it's usually one that absolves them and their party from blame. My friends, I'm here to tell you that this crisis is the Republicans' fault. It's the Democrats' fault. It's the fault of every one of us who believed in the fairy tale of a free lunch.

http://tinyurl.com/3jaozf

Anonymous said...

"

Germany has economic/financial problems???


Where's heir Hitler when you need him?
"

His spirit lives on in homeland security and our leadership.

Anonymous said...

If we follow through with the 'Reinhardt prophecies' per the Google finance forums... October 6th, 2008 is the Great Stock Market crash of 2008...
Reinhardt predicted the Septermber 15th drop 2 months in advance and the subsequent mayhem.

He also points to an organization called 'Legatus'...

edd said...

.
Hunt down the money;
the crooks; the silent observers.

http://tinyurl.com/3us3xp

Anonymous said...

"Where's heir Hitler when you need him?"

Frank who-hates-Scottsdale has already posted on this thread. Just go back and read his threads. Hitler Fascism lives thru him and all his so called Republican friends.

Anonymous said...

Going out in the 13104 zip code is so bizarre after this week and all its craziness. Shopping: Lines 10 people long although I'm not sure why there were only 2 cashiers on a Friday. The store did have a Help Wanted sign up. 3 restaurants next to Y all jam packed. Even the place with $10 hamburgers.

Houses are sporting sold signs all over the place.
=====================

Welcome to reality for 90% of the population. I am seeing the same thing. Friday night I wanted to go to Chili's with the mrs. We went in and were told it would be a 30-40 minute wait. We said screw that and left.

I have no idea where this recession everyone is talking about exists. In my daily life it's non-existent.

Anonymous said...

Kw said: A good example of that is hear right in HB Ca., we have many policemen and firemen who spend more time eating at the restuarants on mainstreet, flirting with women and washing their fire trucks - we don't need people like this who are nothing but a burden on the tax-payer and continually ask for better wages and benefits.
--------------------

KW, you are either a genious or very brave. Or maybe both. The scams that law enforcement and particularly fire fighters have been putting on tax payers here in California is beyond ridiculous. they are bankrupting our tax base because they are raping tax payers with all the bougs overtime they make. Time and half here, overtime there, and keep in mind that while they're doing this carnage, the stupid media and lame ass public continues to praise these aholes as "OUR HEROES"

Fu&K these bastards! They're part of the reason were in this big budget deficit. Firefighters making over $200,000 per year is not uncommon.

In the summer I went to a fire station open house in LA. I asked the nice firemen if they got paid "overtime" when they were called to fight fires. He said "No, we just get time and a half" for the first one hundred hours" Then I responded, time and half, I see, so you get your regular pay and on top of that you get time and half dollars and then after the first one hundred hours you get regular pay dollars plus double overtime dollars?'
He nodded his head "afirmative"
I then asked him "You're a firefighter? Right? Why is it that you being a firefighter, when a fire happens, your union demands that you get extra pay in addition to regular pay for being asked to do something your TITLE already says that you are supposed to do? You are a fire fighter, you're supposed to fight fires, thats your damn JOB, ISNT IT?

With that remark, I was quickly SHOVED out of the fire house by our heroes. I will add that after being thrown out on the pavement, there was no rescure by our heroes in blue.

Lolcat said...

"Your's sincerely,

Ceiling Cat"

Nao iz panik timez. Ceiling Cat talkez direkly to hoomans on teh intertoobs.

patrat said...

It's funny that you don't hear much about the flippers, in all the talk of who is to blame. You hear that houses were sold to poor people who couldn't afford them. About 30-40% of the sales though, were to flippers, often sight unseen through the internet, often put up for sale before the deal was even closed. I think that's what really got the price run-up going. (And the brokers who realized they were in paradise in that situation.)You don't hear it in the media though.

David in So Cal said...

my prediction is that the bailout spree has just begun and the markets will continue to tank because homes will continue to tank. Until we hit a REAL bottom, we are screwed!!!!!

I am thinking of leaving So Cal before the end of the year...I dont want to be stuck in the disaster that is coming.

patrat said...

Yes vote them out. Essentially a vote of no confidence. A very few of them are good I think, so that's kind of sad. Maybe it's time for a third party. But what party?

Your Jewish Master said...

The gov't is making this all last so much longer. Recession or depression? Sure
The USA will bounce back, just how fast, we can't guess.

vanilla ice said...

For the next 30 days stocks will go up, down and ultimately sideways.

The analysts will say this is the worst it will get, dollar cost averaging, and the same stupid canned statements that get them paid but leave everyone else with less money. 401k's, mutual funds, pensions, social security what a joke. Just more scams from the greatest racket in history.

Where do we go from here? Whatever the analysts, Jim Cramer, and real estate people, are saying do the opposite.

I'm a little buzzed.

Oh yeah, and do whatever Peter Schiff says. He's been sent here by god as the Prophet of Finance.

patrat said...

I can't believe how they keep talking about house values must stop falling. (i.e. they must be propped up?) Absolute denial.
I think houses kind of became commodities. (As I sometimes feel humans are these days.) When really houses are shelter, right?

Edgar Alpo said...

Down until after the election, up for two months until after wall street bonus time. Crash after jan 19, 2009, then more bailouts, stability for awhile, then peak oil hits and it's mad max from then on out. Got bunker?

Anonymous said...

Hey Keith, regarding this post:

*****************
keith said...
Under the FDIC is fine as long as you can go without your cash for a few weeks or months

That said, it's good to have some safe cash around, in case the FDIC won't pay soon enough, or the ATMs don't work because the bank was closed and the people who run the ATMs got laid off
************************

I would love to see a post on some good choices for "safer than FDIC" liquid cash.

I'm worried about two things:
1) For me: I don't know what exactly "safe cash" is. I'd like to comply, but I don't know how.

2) For Others: Some people could misinterpret the comment to mean that we should go get a whole bunch of currency out and put it in the mattress, home safe, under a rock, etc. The problem with that is **THEFT**. It is a serious issue when you are talking about someone's savings/retirement. I have already heard stories of people getting robbed of their life savings by taking cash out of the bank.

Anonymous said...

I happened to be reading up on the Great Depression and I just want to know when we are going to get the dust bowls ?

Anonymous said...

I have no idea where this recession everyone is talking about exists. In my daily life it's non-existent.


Not here in NOVA either although the fear talk has entered the conversations though.

Eric said...

"Kw said: A good example of that is hear right in HB Ca., we have many policemen and firemen who spend more time eating at the restuarants on mainstreet, flirting with women and washing their fire trucks - we don't need people like this who are nothing but a burden on the tax-payer and continually ask for better wages and benefits."


I'm a volunteer. I will gladly do what they do for money, for free.

you are strictly an amateur said...

You are dreaming.

Unemployment is only 6.1%
Just because you called housing doesn't mean you are the sage soothsayer seer.

The only panic is in the media. People on the street, for the most part are not panicked. Maybe a few hundred lined up at banks, a puny number, more people are murdered every day in Amerika.

HGTV is still going strong.

Houses are still being built and sold in large number, though reduced from the height of the insanity.

Nobody remembers the periodic devastating crashes thoughout the 19th century and early 20th before the gold standard was dropped. (that's why they dropped it you idiots) Know what the stats are on that and duration?

Exactly, you are just looking back a few years.

Buffett's observations are limited to 40's and beyond, no devastating crises during that period. Scares yes, but no crisis.

Go ahead, start buying. Good luck with that.

mickeyc said...

We've only had fear for two weeks. I think you're stuck with the '87 crash in your head Keith.
This is a big, long, lumbering crash. You will have YEARS to buy at the bottom.
This isn't the 1930's either. It is the Railroad Crash of the 1800's.

Anonymous said...

Didn't the UK already guaranty all deposits following the collapse of Northern Rock?

Anonymous said...

seriously, what planet do you people live on?

----

Yeah that why the government just passed a $800 BILLION bail out plan, cause everything is just fine.

Thats why the president said if some money isnt loosened up soon then this sucker is going down - cause everything is just fine.

Thats why banks are going bust everywhere - cause everything is just fine.

Idiot

Anonymous said...

gwk said...
"Why don't we all just kill ourselves and be done with it because it is all over at least that is what I am told by this blog and many others but wait Obama will fix everything so I should wait it out problem is I was an adult when Carter was going to fix everything and we all know he was a complete failure so history will tell the story, by the way the Dunkin near my home is filled every day no recession in there."

If you really are an adult, you ought to be ashamed of yourself for your poor writing. Why don't you learn to write with proper sentence structure an then get back to us.

Anonymous said...

House auction mentioned in today's paper. Some lady got a $425k house for $210k. Nice haircut.

Lamaria said...

My predictions for tomorrow:

The DOW will go up during the day by a few hundred points and than close approximately 100 points in the red. Just like Friday.

-
I think that America, for the most part, is still in Denial. You are only seeing the Panic in people who are/feel obligated to actually look at and understand some of what is going on.

I still see people say that we will be *due for a hard *recession next year*! The anger towards the bail-out bill was nothing more than that as far as I can tell.

I know I am about to get flamed for this very cliche statement, but I really do blame the dirt-poor education and general decadence. IMO, people generally lack the awareness and comprehensive skills required to get into Panic mode right now.

By the way Keith, glad to see that you decided to stay and started a political blog in addition to HP. FYI, I'm on the Obama-Biden side now and it IS thanks to Palin.

Anonymous said...

Hitler was a socialist who promised that his government would solve all the problems. Obama is a socialist who promises that his government will solve all the problems

Anonymous said...

Good to see the Euro Snubs bending over and finally taken it too! Karma's a b*tch!

UPTHECREEK said...

GOT FOOD
GOT WATER
GOT FUEL
GOT GUNS
GOT CASH

BOOM BOOM OUT GO THE LIGHTS !!!

upthecreek said...

"In the summer I went to a fire station open house in LA. I asked the nice firemen if they got paid "overtime" when they were called to fight fires. He said "No, we just get time and a half" for the first one hundred hours" Then I responded, time and half, I see, so you get your regular pay and on top of that you get time and half dollars and then after the first one hundred hours you get regular pay dollars plus double overtime dollars?'
He nodded his head "afirmative"
"I then asked him "You're a firefighter? Right? Why is it that you being a firefighter, when a fire happens, your union demands that you get extra pay in addition to regular pay for being asked to do something your TITLE already says that you are supposed to do? You are a fire fighter, you're supposed to fight fires, thats your damn JOB, ISNT IT?"

OH YA
Don't forget the pensions and full medical the so called HEROES " get for just a few years on the Farce Sorry i ment to say Force..

and You wonder why we don't have any fukin tax money left....

Natural Eyebrows said...

Political operatives say that you can't beat somebody with nobody. An incumbent may be weak, but you still need a credible candidate to run against him to take him out.

So it is with the dollar. The dollar may be staggering, but the Euro is even weaker, for reasons already pointed out in this thread. The yen has other problems.

Anyone holding foreign currency must ask himself, if my own country tanks or goes fascist, can I take that currency to its home country and be happy there? Would you like to be a Korean or an Australian trying to emigrate to Japan? The Japanese have a strong currency, but you and your descendants can be there for ten generations and still be outsiders.

America is still the most open society in the world - by far. That will help us get through this.

Anonymous said...

60 Minutes just did a big piece here in the US tonight (10/5) on the $60 trillion monster lurking in credit default swaps.

"The instruments themselves are at the heart of this mess," Grant says. "They are complex, in effect, mortgage science projects devised by these Nobel-tracked physicists who came to work on Wall Street for the very purpose of creating complex instruments with all manner of detailed protocols, and who gets paid when and how much. And the complexity of the structures is at the very center of the crisis of credit today."

http://tinyurl.com/3ufybt

Anonymous said...

The Paulson Plan keeps wealth exactly in the place where its not needed .
Real Production and Job Creation is
the only thing that can save us now .
True production must match consumption in a economy . A debt economy that crashes can only be replaced by true production ,not more debt or wealth remaining in the hands of the bailed out debt providers and the wealthy and corporations .

The government should do anything they can to increase income and jobs for buying power for people .
Somehow the government has to enact laws to bring back manufacturing and jobs to America .In addition wages need to increase for the majority . The Corporation world need to take lass profit to make up for their greed cycle . The banks need to contract and lend less to people . The really wealthy need to be taxed more for a time period to make up for uneven distribution of wealth by the real estate Ponzi Scheme.
Paulson is blowing it by keeping wealth in the hands of the people that caused this meltdown .He is one of them .The goverment must do anything it can to bring back production to American with decent wages ,for buying power . This is not a time in which Americans need to reduce buying power by competition with slave labor so Corporations can have increased
profits . Buying power is what is needed for Americans ,but it can't be debt buying power ,it has to be actual wages .

Builder said...

85% of the country is in fine shape. If you look at the foreclosures, nearly all are out in areas that probably should not have been built anyways.

Americans need to come back to the urban areas, boot out the undocumented inhabitants, take back the schools, hospitals, parks and social system, and re-build.
It would be better for everyone.

les said...

It's time for the US&Israel to bomb Iran and distract the world for a couple of months.

Maybe Russia can jump in and Nato can follow. It looks like the world needs a world war economy.

k.w. - Southern Ca. said...

Here in Huntungton Beach, I'm hearing more and more residents complaining now - a sign that the sh*t is really beginning to hit the fan for them as well.

Sadly, most residents here thought it was OK as long as subprime folks got screwed out of their debt traps, but now the problem is hitting them as well - it sucks when the problem becomes personal.

It's getting pretty ugly down here as well now, more and more restuarants have no one in them, and more cars,trucks,boats and motorcycles are up for sale.

Unfortunately, this is just the beginning.

Anonymous said...

The Fed pushed us to recession by trying to keep the expansion going, now they are pushing us to depression trying to avoid the recession. Next they will destroy the currency trying to avoid the depression. After that the US government will be destroyed trying to save the currency.

k.w. - Southern Ca. said...

Thanks Anonymous.

I'm just trying to stay aware of what's really going on (where the money pit is), like you and many others on this blog who choose to see clearly.

These public service perks will
soon be unsustainable.

It's important to remember, that many of these public service employees are also over-leveraged with house loans, boats and all sorts of garbage they could never afford - and there will be a massive wave of additional foreclosures added to the stats by this group as well, it just hasn't hit them significantly yet - it's just a matter of time, and this financial crisis has alot of time to riddle it's way through-out all employment sectors.

States are now whining about their budgets. If they had only started cutting the salaries of most of their employees when things started looking bleak several months ago, they might have avoided being in such a hole right now.

However, the monetary waste in public service areas has been so rampant over the years that they've now dug a hole that cannot be filled with any amount of tax-payer money - the money simply isn't there to continually support their lavish lifestyles.

"HERO" is used too often to justify over-bloated salaries, and it worked as long as employment periods and wages within private industry were decent - that unfortunately has ended in this country.

The real hero's are those in this country who are trying to make ends meet on a day to day basis,
don't spend beyond their means and are willing (or forced) to take pay cuts to a reasonable degree if it's necessary to do so.


Anonymous said...
Kw said: A good example of that is hear right in HB Ca., we have many policemen and firemen who spend more time eating at the restuarants on mainstreet, flirting with women and washing their fire trucks - we don't need people like this who are nothing but a burden on the tax-payer and continually ask for better wages and benefits.
--------------------

KW, you are either a genious or very brave. Or maybe both. The scams that law enforcement and particularly fire fighters have been putting on tax payers here in California is beyond ridiculous. they are bankrupting our tax base because they are raping tax payers with all the bougs overtime they make. Time and half here, overtime there, and keep in mind that while they're doing this carnage, the stupid media and lame ass public continues to praise these aholes as "OUR HEROES"

Fu&K these bastards! They're part of the reason were in this big budget deficit. Firefighters making over $200,000 per year is not uncommon.

In the summer I went to a fire station open house in LA. I asked the nice firemen if they got paid "overtime" when they were called to fight fires. He said "No, we just get time and a half" for the first one hundred hours" Then I responded, time and half, I see, so you get your regular pay and on top of that you get time and half dollars and then after the first one hundred hours you get regular pay dollars plus double overtime dollars?'
He nodded his head "afirmative"
I then asked him "You're a firefighter? Right? Why is it that you being a firefighter, when a fire happens, your union demands that you get extra pay in addition to regular pay for being asked to do something your TITLE already says that you are supposed to do? You are a fire fighter, you're supposed to fight fires, thats your damn JOB, ISNT IT?

With that remark, I was quickly SHOVED out of the fire house by our heroes. I will add that after being thrown out on the pavement, there was no rescure by our heroes in blue.

CokeSniffingAttorney said...

Interesting how the H0m3land Securitocracy gang cared so much for the firefighters and cops when a few hundred were burned and pulverized, and dare I say blown up, on that fateful day , and then their remains were ordered washed into the gutters of New York by Larry Silverstein, Rudy Jewliani, er, I mean, Guiliani et al.

k.w. - Southern Ca. said...

You got that 100% right.

It's the "bottom tier" of the economic pyramid - the working bee - that's putting food on Paulson's table. He really doesn't undertstand what he's doing, and he's only going to make the problem worse by providing a temporary haven for his cronies.

That $700bil+ will be appropriated
to those he knows best - tax-payer's get the rotten left-overs.


Anonymous said...
The Paulson Plan keeps wealth exactly in the place where its not needed .
Real Production and Job Creation is
the only thing that can save us now .
True production must match consumption in a economy . A debt economy that crashes can only be replaced by true production ,not more debt or wealth remaining in the hands of the bailed out debt providers and the wealthy and corporations .

The government should do anything they can to increase income and jobs for buying power for people .
Somehow the government has to enact laws to bring back manufacturing and jobs to America .In addition wages need to increase for the majority . The Corporation world need to take lass profit to make up for their greed cycle . The banks need to contract and lend less to people . The really wealthy need to be taxed more for a time period to make up for uneven distribution of wealth by the real estate Ponzi Scheme.
Paulson is blowing it by keeping wealth in the hands of the people that caused this meltdown .He is one of them .The goverment must do anything it can to bring back production to American with decent wages ,for buying power . This is not a time in which Americans need to reduce buying power by competition with slave labor so Corporations can have increased
profits . Buying power is what is needed for Americans ,but it can't be debt buying power ,it has to be actual wages .

Anonymous said...

I don't see this great recession that HP'ers see. Maybe because I am an optimist/winner and you HP'ers are always pessimists and thus losers. HP'ers, get a life and stop being so darn negative. I still see people shopping at malls, eating out, etc... McCain was right, maybe we are only in a "mental recession".

Anonymous said...

re: mental recession

100% accurate observation. Ever notice how the media is always in crisis mode?

Every day there is a new crisis. Global warming crisis. Financial crisis. Obesity crisis. Health care crisis. Education crisis. And of course the never ending hurricane/tornado/fire crisis that keeps CNN in business.

The American people are being scared to death. Why do you suppose so many people in this country are on medication? Every day some news report tells them they are suffering from a new disease.

The fix to this "financial crisis" is for everyone to turn off their TV for a week and go about their normal lives.

Confused American said...

So wait a minute...are you saying we didn't really NEED that bailout? You mean the politicians LIED TO US? And we just LET THEM TAKE OUR MONEY? And we are still F*CKED?

Anonymous said...

i think most of those people you see dineing out are relying on credit cards.

Anonymous said...

I guess we could go back to our previous value system of hard work trust and honesty, but it seems the new paradigm is here to stay, for now anyway.

I used to think 700 billon was a lot of money, now, with the new system in place, it seems not to be making an effect for the better.

Just how long can a debt based world economy keep going, how much debt is too much debt? A trillion here a trillion there.......crazy

Anonymous said...

i think most of those people you see dineing out are relying on credit cards.

October 06, 2008 3:44 PM

===========

I think you're wrong. Despite what you bitter renting twits think, not everyone out there is over their head financially. I can speak for myself, my close friends and immediate family when I say we could all go out to a $100 meal and not think twice about it while paying with cash or an ATM card.

The people heading to Pizza Hut and charging it on the visa, stopped going long ago.

edd said...

Rep. Mica, (R) Florida,
is a clown from Hell.

He is turning the reform hearing today
into part of our systemic problems.

Anonymous said...

the low unemployment numbers are like the low inflation numbers eg...(does not include house price inflation, does not include energy or fuel price inflation, does not include food price inflation, and rumor has it that it does not include either insurance price inflation nor tax cost price inflation)........ or one more completely bogus peice of work destined to have or will soon drain all your meager savin............sucka

Anonymous said...

anyone got a recipe for squirrel

Anonymous said...

"If you really are an adult, you ought to be ashamed of yourself for your poor writing. Why don't you learn to write with proper sentence structure an then get back to us."

I love it! A typo in the chastising of another's poor writing....

It's why I come to HP. The hypocrisy in every thread always brings a smile to my face...

Anonymous said...

saw a 3bd/2bth 2 car garage/ pool/ house for sale yesterday for 40 thou........seemed a must buy.............. and only 6 miles from where i would want to be...........

Anonymous said...

freedom...................

Anonymous said...

I don't know about "relying" on credit cards. I "use" one for convenience and pay off the bill every month. But that doesn't occur to people like the HPer who some time ago took it upon himself to scope out all the registers at his local Wal-Mart. (We don't even have to go into the HPer in Wal-Mart, it's just par for the course). Anyway, his conclusion was that everyone was in the act of using a card for their transaction - hence, everyone must be in credit card debt.

I hope you aren't assuming that people are "relying" on credit cards because you have observed the use of credit cards...

Anonymous said...

I WISH it will be like 1929, I wish I wish I wish I wish I wish.

Instead will will have roaming gangs of savage turd world beasts raping, killing, stealing. Add the new SS police we will have and essentially you have a picture of Detroit riots + Nazi Germany + Crash of 1873 + high tech extreme oppression.