October 30, 2008

A chapter straight out of Manias, Panics and Crashes, when cash became king, and sheeple did the exact wrong thing at the exact wrong time (again)

So now that the sheeple are out of the stock market, and are putting their dollars under the mattress, shouldn't we be doing something else?

33 comments:

christiangustafson said...

I think the financial analyst is missing the point.

Joe Homedebtor isn't pulling his equity out as some sort of clever investment. He knows he is doomed and is looting the place before he's out on the street.

The dumb ones poured cement in the toilet and took all the light fixtures. The smart(er) ones stripped any credit lines still offered to them.

This is our country. What a bunch of winners!

Anonymous said...

There are still businesses out there that take my fiat and give me silly little yellow coins. I'll stick with that. It's getting a little more press nowadays, but until the shoeshine boy shows me a 2009 High Relief Double Eagle, I know it's not time to sell yet.

Anonymous said...

Wake up sheeple, home equity is not money in the bank!

Anonymous said...

When the experts begin recommending cashing out, then I buy.

Valuations too high. Dividends too low. High volatility. Too many stock buyers.

We have moved back to where we were in 2002, which sounds good until you realize that this whole boom since then never should have happened.

This is the first wave down.

Also, as foreign markets crash, some dollars will flow into US equities.

Also, those turning their 401Ks into mattress money might e the smart ones, not the sheeple.

Nick said...

The market is no where near a good buy. The dividend to yield ratio is way out of line and thus stocks are not a good buy. At least not yet. When the S&P 500 Index decreases another 30% to 40% then it would be a great time to buy.

JDallas said...

I would buy stocks right now. Of course some of the aforementioned worries are still valid. But the Dow is trading at 9,000 something after reaching a peak of 14,000. If you buy some stocks and hold for a few years, you will be set, regardless of dividends.

Anonymous said...

Buying stock is not a contrarian play as most people are exposed to the market and continue to buy stock through their 401K's.

I don't see a buy signal yet. The market needs to get closer to the 6,000 - 7000 range which probably won't happen until next year.

Until then, I have been having fun with DXD.

joe the realtor said...

Casey just bought some more penny stocks and is telling his loser friends to buy.So are we really at a bottom?

Is palin going to be in playboy?rumors are that after she gets her ass kicked tuesday she will be showing her cookies to all.

Anonymous said...

Just save your money and cut back on your spending you stupid, American sheep!

Taking a HELOC out for "savings" is pretty pathetic. Americans will do everything and anything to avoid changing their lifestyles.

What is he going to do when his house drops another 100k? That HELOC won't be saving him anything.

Batman said...

I love the bank robots telling people not to take their money out. That's like Dr. Who taking advice from the Daleks. If the banks are stupid enough to let people have cash a month before they stop making payments, so be it. It's a form of evolution man, the stupid ones die off.

Anonymous said...

What scum bags to take money from their home equity mortgages, and hide it. It's not money they earned!

Anonymous said...

There's free cheese in the mousetrap, baby.

Scott said...

>>shouldn't we be doing something else?<<

I am. I'm buying U.S. stocks. Mainly low P/E DJIA stocks, so far. Easing in.

I'm the guy who said on here that I was OUT of stocks as of the first rate CUT, in Sep 07.

I'm the guy who said I'm out until we get a high VIX. We have one.

I'm the guy who said I'm out until the TED Spread improves. It is.

I'm the guy who said I'm out until the election, and/or Nov 1, and/or until after the spooky October earnings season is mostly behind us. Here we are.

I'm the guy who said I'm out until they start raising, or at least stop cutting, Fed rates. After this week's cut, they really can't cut any more.

I'm the guy who said I'm out until Investor's Business Daily reports a confirmed market rally, according to their rules for such. They did.

I'm the guy who said I have some other buy signals, which I won't go into. (Well, here's two more: my sister started asking me if she should sell stocks since they went down so much. And the CNBC blah-blahs are finally gloom-and-doom.)

Now, I'm also the guy who said wait for a DOW/Gold ratio of between 1 and 5--like at 6000 maybe--but with the commodities bubble cracked and the global slowdown underway I now think we'll see a nice stock rally before we resume any trend toward a DOW/Gold bottom.

Anonymous said...

Scott said:

I am. I'm buying U.S. stocks. Mainly low P/E DJIA stocks, so far. Easing in.

I'm the guy who said on here that I was OUT of stocks as of the first rate CUT, in Sep 07.

I'm the guy who said I'm out until we get a high VIX. We have one.

I'm the guy who said I'm out until the TED Spread improves. It is.

I'm the guy who said I'm out until the election, and/or Nov 1, and/or until after the spooky October earnings season is mostly behind us. Here we are.

I'm the guy who said I'm out until they start raising, or at least stop cutting, Fed rates. After this week's cut, they really can't cut any more.

I'm the guy who said I'm out until Investor's Business Daily reports a confirmed market rally, according to their rules for such. They did.

I'm the guy who said I have some other buy signals, which I won't go into. (Well, here's two more: my sister started asking me if she should sell stocks since they went down so much. And the CNBC blah-blahs are finally gloom-and-doom.)

*********

And you're the guy who is wrong.

DOPES!

Devestment said...

The sheeple with a dollar left will buy all the way down and give their wealth to the dead cat bounces, or living expenses when they loose their jobs.

Farmer John has something in his britches for his little sheep and it aint another stimulus check!

Nick said...

*********BREAKING NEWS*********


I told you HP'ers that sooner or later the government would consider reducing the principal and interest payments for at risk home owners! I also predicted and posted on this website that the government would also consider lowering people's credit card debt (an outright reduction in their principal and a reduction in interest rates).

You can check it out at www.cnn.com in their business section.

When this economic bubble and party was starting, you HP'ers could have either joined it or stayed in the sidelines. You chose to stay in the sidelines. I also saw what was happening and decided that since the government won't reward working hard, saving one's money, etc... I wanted to be as irresponsible and reckless as possible.

Boy, you Fucked Savers are TOTALLY SCREWED! HA, HA, HA, LOL, LOL, LOL.

JaneZ said...

Batman said...

I love the bank robots telling people not to take their money out. That's like Dr. Who taking advice from the Daleks.

ROFL. That is just perfect.

Just remember Debt = Wealth.

Never trust 6% again said...

christiangustafson said...
I think the financial analyst is missing the point.

Joe Homedebtor isn't pulling his equity out as some sort of clever investment. He knows he is doomed and is looting the place before he's out on the street.

The dumb ones poured cement in the toilet and took all the light fixtures. The smart(er) ones stripped any credit lines still offered to them.

This is our country. What a bunch of winners!

_______________________________

Bingo...My former neighbor played the bank just like this. He built the home for $225K in 2003 and within 3 years its value was inflated to $370K. He took out a $150K Heloc and promptly stopped payments on the home. Best I could figure he filed bankrupt and has $150K to get him through until his credit is repaired.

He has your 401K just in case you are missing it about now...

Mammoth said...

To "I'm the guy who..."
---------------------
Be careful - the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Anonymous said...

oh man, AIG is going to blow sky high. Have you heard the latest? they have blown through the first 80billion and the second loan of 35billion and now they say they need more..... an internal auditor quit and has gone into seclusion....

Anonymous said...

Nick

You are a loser.

Jymakta

sundry vermin said...

Counting our gains from the last three weeks excessively, but not too excessively. There's a fine line there.

sundry vermin said...

Oh, by the way, great article.

http://tinyurl.com/6l5zvc

Anonymous said...

Could this be waht theyre triing to hide?

http://truth-here.blogspot.com/2007/11/yellowstone-is-rising-on-swollen.html

yu been skooled said...

FLASH:

It's official.

Keith has transformed into a Kommunist censor.

Refuses to post opposing viewpoints.

Refuses to acknowledge he is dead wrong on bottom-calling.

Refuses to acknowledge his love for Diana Olick.

Where is DOPES when you need him?

i've had it said...

Earlier this year I was in Northern Virgnia in a taxi driven by an immigrant (legal) from Ghana. He told me that another immigrant from Ghana had bought a couple of houses, cashed out, and went back to Ghana.

That's where our savings for our retirements, kids college, and 20% downpayments went to.

This guy is doing the same but just playing the game state-side. So, he walks away from his home. Big deal. He's got a wad of cash -- or savings -- that he will live on for a few years until things improve. He may take a hit on his credit (unlikely though once the new president is installed) for a while and then he's home free.

what a financial system!

Anonymous said...

mammoth,

"Be careful - the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

THat only applies if you leverage. If you aren't leveraged there is not time limit for your solvency....

Anonymous said...

Does anyone get the feeling that someone who spends as much time here gloating about how they beat the system -NICK- has actually been beaten by life? Cheated even? I mean, why would someone waste their time here reminding everyone about what a low-life criminal piece of shit -NICK- they are if things were really going that well?

Small dick? Probably. Balding, middle-aged dweeb? Uh huh. Beaten up by the high school bullies. Most definitely.

Sounds like a real good thing you've got going there. Just curious - has anyone else noticed that 9 times out of 10, guys with the name Nick are fucking comb-over douchebags?

JaneZ said...

Keith said..

So now that the sheeple are out of the stock market, and are putting their dollars under the mattress, shouldn't we be doing something else?

Like getting in line for free money we didn't earn and we don't deserve because we are too stupid to live within our means? Who needs the stock market when you can just fire up the IPod and get down to the mortgage/credit card welfare office and stand in line for free money. No capital gains tax either. Just free, free, free. Didn't the Republicans used to call these people Welfare losers? Didn't this used to be a Democrat thing? Apparently Americans don't really care about politics when it comes to free money. They will get on their knees for anyone who has a buck.

Groups seek credit card debt forgiveness.
Issue #1: America's Money - Everyday on CNN

Consumers are defaulting at high levels on their credit cards, they contend, while banks bleed tens of billions in red ink from losses.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- An alliance of financial industry interests and consumer advocates on Wednesday asked federal regulators to allow lenders to reduce by as much as 40 percent the amount of credit card debt owed by deeply indebted consumers in a special program.

Your ship has docked Nick. Read all about it and get your buns down to the Office of Debt Welfare. Your Pot of Gold is waiting for you.

http://tinyurl.com/5hh5uj

This post contains no hate. Just total disgust.

Anonymous said...

Wow, that was the worst depression EVER! Glad it's over now.

Sheeple are still "holding for the long term"
Investment banks are still shoving pension fund money into "beaten down stocks"
Buffett is jawboning everyone to "buy buy buy" even though he's always been totally secretive about his holdings before this

And everyone still believes that all of the major homebuilders, banks, auto manufacturers, and retailers are solvent

Big scary bear market rallies? Sure. Buy and hold for long term? Not yet.

Ola Dunk said...

I bought shares in the telecom company I work for at P/E of 3,5 or something, after the share tumbled 20%-25% on news they were entering India.

In a year the share price has tumbled from 130 to 30 kroner.

Won't be suprised if it keeps falling, but then I'll just buy some more.

Ola Dunk said...

Nick is missing a few points...

I believe Japan slashed interest rates to - 0 - zero - nil - nothing..

Still property crashed...

vanilla ice said...

Exactly the wrong thing? If they default on their mortgage they still have the cash. I'd say that's a good move. F the banks.