October 07, 2008

And now?





(side note - gonna be traveling today and Wednesday... you know what that means)

59 comments:

born to lose said...

Dick Fold?

Really???

That's what happened to me when I looked at my 401k this afternoon.

Anonymous said...

Deep into fear, with the first few signs of desperation.

rescu-bail-ed said...

Fear is finally taking hold Keith. How does gold look now ? Don't doubt the fundamentals, it really is different this time. We *know* that there is a lot more bad news to come. Good luck HP'ers.

vanilla ice said...

Between denial and fear. This thing has just started. The worst is yet to come.

Anonymous said...

Just entering into fear but clinging onto denial with regards to house asking prices for the most part.

Especially luxury high rise condo developments all over the country.

Complete denial by the builders.

Of course, they have to keep the sheeple thinking that their "building to be" is special by listing over inflated MLS listings just so the specuvestors can salivate at the dream profits and hopefully...from the builders standpoint...close on their units.

The builder stands to lose more if they all just walked away from their 5-10% deposits.

The investors will lose more than their deposit if they close, waiting years (if not decades) to sell the place while renting it out at a huge loss every month.

Alex3191 said...

Fear. Nothing more, nothing less.

tangelo mozilo said...

FEAR!

There. I've finally said it. When people can see the nominal value of their retirement savings dropping minute-by-minute in real time, that is concrete enough to make them fearful.

Furthermore, the peoples' masters (a/k/a clowngress, el presidente, and the pravda media) have finally found it necessary to alert them to the problem because they knew they'd need to explain this humongous bailout bill.

However, I agree with anonypuss 11:49 that there are many who are still in denial regarding housing prices.

Additionally, there are still many people who don't even rate on this chart, because "dancing with the stars" is not a phase.

jim said...

fear

Anonymous said...

Panic finally!!!!

jazzmanferg said...

We are still in denial LOL

sandman said...

Early Desperation

Miss Goldbug said...

Yes Keith we know what that means!

I can't believe your timing....

Anonymous said...

We are now entering the fun zone.

michael said...

in d.c. we are at the fear stage.

Anonymous said...

yeah, between denial and fear (Buffett and Cramer, respectively).

the fed and treasury are in full panic mode, however.

politicians are oblivious.

Anonymous said...

Live from Sunny Southern California,

it's,

Some are still in Denial Tuesday!

Anonymous said...

I have to believe that people are still kind of in that realization/denial phase.

I mean, what I see is a, "It's bad out there, but the government will take care of it," kind of mindset.

New Orleans, folks.

Anonymous said...

We are clearly in panic and moving toward desperation. If not on Wednesday, I expect capitulation by the end of October.

Here in the NYC area the sheeple are still solidly in denial regarding housing.

Chicago Wise Guy said...

I think we are at a deep state of anxiety. I can't believe it but some of my friends have actually sold their overpriced house to another sucker! At Harlem and Touhy area in Chicago I had a friend sell his 4 bedroom, two full bath, two car garage house for $419,000 to an idiot. The buyer thought he got a great deal because other similar properties are selling for 500K! What an idiot, this house should be selling for 225K to 260K. My sister was able to sell her condo for 339K! It took them a long time, but they sold their overpriced asset to suckers who bought the realtor and MSM line "oh it is such a great time to buy a house", "you can't go wrong with real estate", etc...

Anonymous said...

Have you seen this Keith?

http://news.aol.com/article/6-die-in-family-murder-suicide-in-la/202108?icid=100214839x1211271195x1200645907

Anonymous said...

People are waking up to the fact that the Suzannes of the world (real estate agents, mortgage brokers, stockbrokers, financial planners, etc) did not research this and that America is just one ginormous ponzi scheme.

Stuck in So Pa said...

".......Additionally, there are still many people who don't even rate on this chart, because "Dancing with the stars" is not a phase."
====================================
Classic!

Neither is "American Idol!"

Here in the sticks just a little hint of awareness is beginning to creep in.

I saw my first whole-house-in-a-dumpster yesterday, right on main street. OMG! I can't really call this a trash-out, because that house was left in good shape (I asked around,) maybe we need a better term like "dump-out?" I’ve have seen some really good trash-outs in my travels recently however, not too pretty. That kicked-in 60” projection TV on the front lawn, having passed through the shattered bay window to get there, is a dead giveaway! And those suckers are damned heavy, too!

George L said...

relief and optimism.that's where I am right now.

i was in fear,desperation and depression last year when I read what was coming and now that it's starting to get bad and not being shocked by it, my head is cool and I can see opportunity.

Anonymous said...

I know plenty of people who are still talkin' like they did in 2005.

Just this week, real fear emerged for the first time, although for many, it's still denial. Absolutely.

So, I'd say creeping out of denial, with real fear visible on the radar.

Anonymous said...

anxiety.

Anonymous said...

Just went to my bank and tried the ATM and guess what, NO money in them, tried three machines and NO cash in them. My mom called last night and said get 3 months worth of cash out of the bank, she is 72 and fears that the banks will be closed soon.

Anonymous said...

bac down 30 percent this morning to 26..last time it hit 18 with a 13 percent dividend it doubled in a month just this summer past.................... im holding at 54 a share............long, long

Mayor McMansion said...

Here's how it looks to a Canadian columnist:

"Now that the Ponzi scheme previously known as the U.S. economy has collapsed, and the American Empire seems about to be foreclosed upon, where does that leave us?"
source:
http://tinyurl.com/3enk9w

Anonymous said...

one in a hundred propertys going distressed and selling at 80 percent discounts.....if credit is not allowed.... derivitives selling at 22 cents if financed by seller or 6 cents if not...tell the complete story............

satan is a republican said...

Everything's great where I'm at in the midwest. Luxury condos selling for only 40% off asking price. Life is wonderful. Real estate. It never goes down.

/sarcasm off

Noodles said...

This one's for You Keithy
Enjoy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wepAxJ6BN30

Noodles said...

For Iceland... Panic. In the South with the gas rationing... massive fear. Just read that 60% of Americans believe we are heading into a Depression. It's hit the mainstream.

Anonymous said...

optimistic bushy on tv now..

Anonymous said...

Entering Fear!

Anonymous said...

Midway between fear to desperation. Panic will start soon when the market drops over 1500 points in a single day to a low of approximately 7,996.

We will then see a trading range, between 8,000 and 14,000 that will last for 14 years.

Anonymous said...

Desperation:

Panic is when their World View collapses; i.e. they realize that this is not a liquidity crisis.

LoneLibertarian said...

FEAR

This was the headline on drudgereport yesterday.

This thing is not yet over. When we have a DOW selloff of 1000+ points then it will be panic.

If we continue this slow bleed it is going to take awhile. Then people will begin to realize that the bailout is a failure. I still people saying that the bailout is going to work.

Anonymous said...

nice day.. if you like losing 25 percent of your money and being told you will make 50 percent less money.a year thats BAC news today...........................

expat said...

Fear on my way to Phuket.

tom said...

Euphoria!

OK, well, we're finally leaving Denial, I believe all the next stages will come thru in quick succession

yoski said...

Right across from where I live:
"Miami, FL 33137
Sq. Ft.: 1,642 Lot Size: 7,200 Sq. Ft. MLS #: M1266292
List Price: $599,000
Description
1950's bungalow villa is located in the most desirable and hip design district neighborhood of buena vista east. This house, which was featured in wallpaper magazine, is remodeled with aluminum impact windows, stainless steel appliances, new bathrooms, new terra cotta roof, new plumbing, and new electric. The backyard features avocado, mango and citrus trees. Cnn money reported this to be one of the top 5 zip codes for real estate gains in 2004. "
Nice house in a crappy crime ridden neighborhood. This clown is still in full denial.

tater said...

I agree with Vanilla Ice. This is still in the denail phase.

Right now, people are still on the tail end of the denial stage, cuz the Fed still has a few more blanks to shoot. These people still think that King Hank and Uncle Ben can do anything. So, they're holding on, thinking that the Fed will save the Markets. Oh, there'll be rate cuts and other slick moves/tactics by the Fed to attempt shore up the Markets. But these attempts will eventually fizz out, just like the past attempts. Today was a good example of a neutered Fed, with the DOW dropping over 500 points, even though the Fed intervened in the markets, and started buying commercial paper.

As the people finally realize that the Fed can't save the economy, then they will feel the fear that they have been denying.

It'll be a REAL sad day, when the fear phase kicks in. When that happens, there could be nationwide runs on the banks, and the shit will REALLY hit the fan.

tom12008 said...

In most places,fear is setting in.

gutless and lazy said...

Overall, clearly in full blown panic mode. I expect capitulation in on final big creshendo sell off. Putting in a short term bottom now. But final bottom probably around DOW 8000 w/ an intraday low. Retests the second day. Maybe 30 days out. Too late to really sell if you havent already. DOW flat lines next year around DOW 9,000. 8 years to get back to DOW 14,000.

Obama sweeps in landslide.

I've had it said...

Feds have been in panic for a while now.

People are leaving Denial and entering Fear, even in Manhattan. I can make small chat with strangers here on line at the super market or in a bar and the fear is starting to emerge.

Just tonight I was behind a 20-something girl at the checkout in the supermarket and saw she had a copy of a tabloid magazine...Jen Anniston was on the cover. I made a crack about it to her and after a few exchanges she said "Well, you need a little fun with everything that's going on out there". It was understood between us she was referring to the economy and the 500 point stock market decline today.

No doubt there are brain dead people out there who won't know what hits them until it does, but I do know that fear is starting to take hold.

As for Manhattan real estate, it is tanking at every level except the very high end. Due to the quirk of calculating the statistical median, the data show the median price going up, but that's only because the lower and medium properties are not selling which leaves only the high priced properties (which do sell) in the data set from which the median is calculated.

The housing market is dying in Manhattan for normal people: singles making $100k+ and families making $300k+ (this is not rich in Manhattan, which has a cost of living 2x the national average).

Take my mixed condo/rental building as an example. I can tell you that last year I was getting notices of units for sale all the time in my mailbox... about twice a week or more it seemed during the busy seasons. This year I have received maybe five "for sale" notices in my mailbox the ENTIRE year since January. I have received ZERO "Sold" notices. This is unprecedented.

My building complex is comprised of four 40-story buildings with units that go for between $700k to $750k for 1 bedrooms and $1M+ for two bedrooms. Those figures are from 2007. These units can't be sold now, and the few that do are probably going for 15% less than last year, or possibly less.

With the Dow now at 9500 people are waking up to reality and it is definitely putting some fear into them.

The market will come back over the next few weeks and then it will go down again big time. I think at that point people will jump straight to panic and sell, sell, sell, sell, sell their non-retirement holdings.

Too Much Coffee said...

Dunno about where you are, but here in Seattle, it's still on the downhill slide from anxiety, begging to morph into denial.

My neighbors bought in 2006 for $800,000. Mind you, it's a 3 bed, 2 bath house with a tiny-ass yard. They are starting to get nervous now that their asking price of $600K isn't getting offers... the house has been listed since May.
Seems like folks around here (seemingly especially over in Bellevue and the Eastside) have their heads in the sand. Sure, everyone thinks their hometown is special, but no city is an island.
I read an article in the paper the other day, and the idiot they interviewed was flabbergasted. She just couldn't beleive the Seattle "wasn't immune" to the housing and credit problems facing the nation.
I don't want people to lose their homes or for jobs to be lost. But secretly, I'm hoping this area falls hard. The damn yuppies 'round here need an epic serving of humble pie.

David said...

Still stuck in Panic. Capitulation happens after Feb. Why? Well, we're heading for the worst Xmas shopping season since 1929. Stores sell less=firing workers. Fired workers have no money=more stores going under. Rinse, repeat. Millions will lose their jobs in the next few months.

January will see riots over heating oil & food. Bush will have to have the 3rd Armored Division escort him out of D.C. If they haven't deserted when they paychecks started bouncing, the way the Red Army did back in '91.

Anonymous said...

Might as well ask what part of the Nikolai Kondratieff cycle we are in.

Or ask if the Dow Transportation index and Dow Jone Industrial Average are sending confirming down signals.

Anonymous said...

Fear. In the housing market: denial as usual, the recession means to realtor scum less sales, but wait after the recession prices will go up! Real estate prices can only go up in a healthy economy, riight?

area 51 said...

You left, market crashed 500 pts today.

No days off for you anymore.

Anonymous said...

I think it fully depends on what market you are talking about. The stock market moves much faster than housing and has moved past panic and is in the middle of capitulation possibly even past the mid point.

On the other hand housing ranges from denial to panic depending on where you live and how close you really pay attention to your home price. I'm sure there are plenty that have no idea how much value their home has lost for various reasons.

I can tell you that here in Pasadena, California we run the range of denial to fear. Median home sale price is still ridiculously high at @$360 a square foot but the range is incredible. There's a dump on my street that's 1500 square feet and they want $750k+. On the other end, there's some decent places selling for $350 and under a square foot.

I think the largest factor for the spread is that alot of people cannot sell the home for less than what they bought it for because they would have to come up with the difference. So they put it up for their cost +6% and are hoping and praying that a greater fool somehow falls in love with their place.

Case in point. In old town Pasadena at 840 Green Street there are about a dozen very beautiful condos for sale at mostly $500-$650 a square foot (not a typo). All were bought about 2 years ago when the place opened. Not so oddly, ALL the list prices are about 6%-15% above the price they bought it for. That means everyone is trying to either break even on an interest only loan plus 6% for selling or they have an option arm loan and are trying to break even on the option arm plus the 6% selling cost. A few goofballs trying to sell on their own hoping just break even.

Now clearly none of these people want to (or can probably afford) to be upsideown. Maybe they'd consider a short sale but more likely they'd just let the bank take it.

And that's what's happened. One unit has been in foreclosure for 4 months. As soon as it sells, its game over and the rest will just fold because the reality of what the new market price for what they own is (or what owns them).

And that slow motion crash is still in full motion....hence the denial to fear.

Stocks though are another story. I'm thinking we're not far from a bottom at all.

Anonymous said...

We'll be on Fear by xmas. Not quite there yet, because talking heads are already calling a bottom.

Anonymous said...

Fear for some of the callers to talk show radio, which is telling. But I know someone who is a year from retirement, yet had 75% of his 401k and other accounts in stocks, despite my telling him a year ago to get out, and now is saying "oh well, too late now, but it will come back..." So there is still some denial by people who should be panicking now. There is probably some desperation by others, so it looks like fear overall.

Anonymous said...

took ten years for the Bac dividend to double and it was taken away yesterrday...and this morn the fed reduced interesdt rsates ,50 percent...last time they were this low second houses were selling because the owners were not making income enough tro keep them.......

veritas_faust said...

Right at PANIC baby! Man...that kinda sucks doesn't it?

Well at least I can buy a house in the foreseeable future...if I can get a loan...damn.

HP All the Way said...

You guys are all too HP -- it is panic out there baby! I was just talking to some older folks (late 80s) and they were asking me about my stocks (no exposure now) and just what is happening. If it is all over the news, it is time to get out. Since HP is now a headline, it may be time to make some strategic investments -- but I'm still sitting at the side watching.

Anonymous said...

Right across from where I live:
"Miami, FL 33137
Sq. Ft.: 1,642 Lot Size: 7,200 Sq. Ft. MLS #: M1266292
List Price: $599,000


Is it in the good Morningside area or in the ghetto after the tracks? If it's around the bay, that price isn't that off.

Anonymous said...

re: I agree with Vanilla Ice. This is still in the denail phase."

Wow, we have not started de-nailing people here...yet... but I expect the government to start doing that any time.

Our local crisis - greater than the tanking economy - is that our sheriff said the most insulting, racist, offensive thing possible - Obama's middle name.

Now I think he is threatened with a federal probe (which could be painful, depending on where it is administered) and the NAACP is really, really mad.They could riot at any time.

Wait. Is de-nailing the punishment for mentioning Obama's middle name? I promise not to say it, just PLEASE don't riot.

tater said...

anon 10:57 said: Wow, we have not started de-nailing people here...yet... but I expect the government to start doing that any time.

I need to correct that by saying that I meant to say "denial". Having said that, "de-nailing" could be a possible punishment for illegal-alien employers! I hadn't thought of that one. LOL